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Bangkok Airways (BA TB) Share Price: Bt11.8 Target Price: Bt12.0 (+1.7%) Expect Losses to Halve Yoy in 4Q18 Company Update

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Bangkok Airways (BA TB) Share Price: Bt11.8 Target Price: Bt12.0 (+1.7%) Expect Losses to Halve Yoy in 4Q18 Company Update January 7, 2019 NEUTRAL Bangkok Airways (BA TB) Share Price: Bt11.8 Target Price: Bt12.0 (+1.7%) Expect losses to halve yoy in 4Q18 Company Update Expect Bt222m core loss in 4Q18F vs Bt451m loss in 4Q17 and Bt96m profit in previous quarter; yoy drop due to higher fuel cost Revised up FY19-20F core profit after imputing lower fuel cost Maintain NEUTRAL, trimmed TP to Bt12/sh (from Bt13); prefer AAV (sector top pick) on its better hedging position Higher fuel cost and low season on Samui to drag 4Q18F earnings We expect BA to book Bt222m core loss in 4Q18 vs Bt451m loss in 4Q17 and Bt96m profit in the previous quarter. Ticket sales should drop 4% qoq to Bt5.0bn (flat yoy) driven by 6% drop in passenger yield due to low season on Samui, fewer European and Chinese tourist arrivals, and weak demand for Phuket and Chiang Mai routes. Cabin factor should drop 3ppt qoq and 1ppt yoy to 69% following decision to maintain yield Kitti PITAKTEERABANDIT (+1% yoy). Fuel cost should jump 25% yoy (+3% qoq) on higher jet fuel 662 - 659 7000 ext 50 08 price net of hedging (US$85/bbl in 4Q18 vs US$65 in 4Q17). CASK ex- [email protected] COMPANY RESEARCH | fuel should drop 8% yoy as BA managed seat capacity to match Key Data demand. Including Bt11m FX loss in the quarter, BA should report 12 -mth High/Low (Bt) 17.4 / 11.0 Bt233m net loss vs Bt930m net profit in 4Q17, led by extra gain from Market capital (Btm/US$m) 24,428.7 / 759.0 sales of BDMS shares. 3m avg Turnover (Btm/US$m) 16.5 / 0.5 Free Float (%) 37. 9 CLMV demand and higher margins to drive earnings from 2Q19F Issue Shares (m shares) 2,070 We are keeping FY18F profit but revised up FY19F/20F core profit by Major shareholders: 40%/41% after imputing lower jet fuel price of US$81 vs US$90 - PRASATTONG -OSOTH PUT 25.3 previously. BA has hedged 59%/56% of 1Q/2Q 2019 fuel requirement at - PRASARTTONG OSOTH AR 11.8 effective cost of US$88/87 per bbl (vs US$70/74 in 1Q/2Q 2018). - PRASATTONG -OSOTH PRA 10.8 Hence, 1Q19F operation would be pressured by hedging loss. Tropical Share Price Performance storm Pabuk should also affect Samui routes in the quarter. However, we foresee recovering demand for CLMV routes and rising share of international point-of-sales (73% in 3Q18) to boost BA’s profit starting 2Q19. On its network expansion plan, BA will focus on routes from/to Vietnam given double-digit growth in inbound tourists. Overall, cabin factor should grow 1ppt yoy to 70% and yield by 2% in FY19F. Limited benefit from cheaper fuel and recovering Chinese arrivals We trimmed TP to Bt12/sh based on 0.9x FY19F P/BV, in line with regional peers’ average multiple. Negative factors have been priced in as BA’s share price has underperformed the SET by 21% in FY18. Every US$1/bbl drop in jet fuel cost would lift earnings by Bt27m or 5% YTD 1Mth 3Mth 12Mth in FY19F. However, we prefer AAV because it hedged at lower fuel cost Absolute (%) 1.7 (6.3) (9.9) (31.8) and is more leveraged to recovering Chinese tourist arrivals. Relative to index (%) 2.0 0.4 0.5 (19.5) Financial Summary (Btm) Krungsri Securities vs Market Year to Dec 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Positive Neutral Negative Sales (Btm) 24,692 24,932 25,425 26,606 27,616 Market Growth (%) 7 1 2 5 4 Recommend 9 5 0 EBITDA (Btm) 4,562 1,698 2,787 3,038 3,222 Krungsri Market % +/ - Growth (%) 32 -63 64 9 6 Target Price (Bt) 12.0 15.9 (24.6) ’1 8 Net Profit (Btm) 330 449 (26.5 ) Recurring profit (Btm) 2,095 -658 330 562 752 ’1 9 Net Profit (Btm) 562 683 (17.7) Growth (%) 42 na na 70 34 Net profit (Btm) 1,768 788 431 562 752 Krungsri's earnings revision FDEPS (Bt) 0.84 0.38 0.21 0.27 0.36 201 8F 201 9F Growth (%) 42 na na 70 34 Earnings revision (%) - 39 .5 PE (x) 11.8 na 75.1 44.1 32.9 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities DPS (Bt) 0.75 0.50 0.18 0.24 0.32 Yield (%) 6.4 4.2 1.6 2.0 2.7 BVPS (Bt) 15.20 13.48 13.19 13.27 13.39 P/BV (x) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to invest in any securities. 1 Company Update | BA January 7 , 201 9 BA: 4Q18 earnings preview P&L (Btm) 4Q17 1Q1 8 2Q1 8 3Q1 8 4Q18F Chg Chg QoQ YoY Sales 6,132 7,498 5,381 6,376 6,170 -3% 1% - Passenger revenue 4,947 6,222 4,206 5,147 4,950 -4% 0% - Other revenue 1,186 1,276 1,175 1,229 1,220 -1% 3% Expense (6,713) (6,566) (6,175) (6,624) (6,599) 0% -2% - Fuel and oil (1,082) (1,158) (1,063) (1,307) (1,351) 3% 25% - Non-fuel operating expenses (5,631) (5,407) (5,112) (5,317) (5,249) -1% -7% Operating Profit (580) 933 (794) (248) (429) 73% -26% Net other income 557 522 851 826 587 -29% 5% Interest income 30 27 32 32 35 13% 20% Interest expense (473) (471) (461) (475) (473) -1% 0% Pretax profit (467) 1,011 (372) 134 (280) na -40% Income Tax 30 (180) 6 (35) 73 na 141% Associates 0 0 0 0 0 na na Minority interest (14) (9) (1) (3) (15) 340% 7% Profit after tax (pre-ex) (451) 822 (366) 96 (222) na -51% Extraordinaries 1,381 (111) 284 (60) (11) -82% na - FX (10) (111) 284 (60) (11) -82% 15% - Impairment 0 0 0 0 0 na na - Others 1,391 0 0 0 0 na na Reported net profit 930 710 (83) 36 (233) na na Shares out (end Q, m) 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 0% 0% Adjusted shares (m) 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 0% 0% Pre-ex EPS (0.21) 0.39 (0.17) 0.05 (0.11) na -51% EPS 0.44 0.34 (0.04) 0.02 (0.11) na na Depreciation (345) (335) (342) (351) (320) -9% -7% EBITDA (235) 1,268 (452) 102 (109) na -54% Key Ratios Operating profit margin (%) -9% 12% -15% -4% -7% EBITDA margin (%) -4% 17% -8% 2% -2% Net profit margin (%) 15% 9% -2% 1% -4% Krungsri Securities Research 2 Company Update | BA January 7 , 201 9 BA: Key Assumptions (%growth) 2017 A 2018 F 2019 F 2020 F ASK growth (%) 10 % -1% 1% 1% Passenger growth (%) 5% -1% 3% 3% Passenger yield growth (% , include excise tax charge ) -9% 1% 2% 2% Non -airline revenue growth (%) 13 % 6% 5% 5% Capex (Btbn) 2,976 2,137 2,147 2,257 Source: Krungsri Securities BA: Changes to key assumptions FY18F FY19F FY20F old new chg old new chg old new chg ASK (m) 6,946 6,690 -4 7,157 6,755 -6 7,514 6,824 -9 Number of Aircraft 39 39 0 40 40 0 38 38 0 Cabin Factor (%) 70.2 68.8 -1.4ppt 70.2 69.8 -0.4ppt 70.2 69.8 -0.4ppt Passenger growth (%) 5 -1 na 4 3 -1.0ppt 5 3 -2.0ppt Passenger yield (Bt/RPK) 4.41 4.50 2 4.53 4.59 1 4.58 4.70 3 Jet fuel price (US$/bbl) 86 83 -3 90 81 -9 90 81 -9 Gross profit margin (%) 14.4 13.5 -0.9ppt 14.1 14.1 0 13.4 14.0 +0.6ppt SG&A/sales (%) 15.6 15.7 0.1ppt 15.6 15.7 0.1ppt 15.6 15.7 0.1ppt Net profit margin (%) 1.3 1.3 0 1.5 2.1 0.6ppt 1.8 2.7 0.9ppt Core profit (Btm) 330 330 0 403 562 40 532 752 41 Source: Krungsri Securities BA: Route network expansion in 2019 New route Increase frequency Untried & new destinations Bangkok -Cam Ranh (4 flights weekly ) Chiang Mai -Krabi (7 flights weekly ) Samui -Taipei /China (6 flights weekly) Bangkok-Danang (from 7 to 11 flights weekly) Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Krungsri Securities Research 3 Company Update | BA January 7 , 201 9 BA: Cabin factor BA: Passenger yield 80% (Bt/RPK) 76% 6.50 74% 75% 72% 71% 6.00 70% 70% 69% 70% 5.23 5.32 68% 68% 67% 5.50 5.08 66% 4.90 4.89 4.83 4.81 65% 5.00 4.64 65% 63% 4.63 4.62 4.73 63% 4.44 4.59 4.41 4.59 4.28 60% 4.50 4.15 4.25 4.15 60% 4.00 55% 3.50 50% 3.00 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Thailand: International tourist arrivals Thailand: Inbound Chinese tourists (m.
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