Banpu Public Co Ltd (BANPU TB)
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BUY (Unchanged) TP: Bt 25.00 (From: Bt 22.00 ) 21 SEPTEMBER 2017 Change in Numbers Upside : 47.1% Banpu Public Co Ltd (BANPU TB) New Dawn We maintain our BUY call on BANPU and raise our TP to Bt25 from Bt22. We are now more bullish on coal prices, as we expect China to keep coal prices elevated amid its push for a greener energy mix. CHAK REUNGSINPINYA BANPU remains attractive at 7-8x 2018-19F P/E with 6%+ dividend 662 – 617 4965 [email protected] yield. We see strong 2H17F results as a key share price catalyst. Coal price supported by China’s policies COMPANY VALUATION It has been a year since China began to curb domestic coal Y/E Dec (Bt m) 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F production and we are more positive than ever that authorities there will continue to support high coal prices in order to Sales 79,737 88,347 94,324 95,132 discourage coal consumption and accelerate the shift towards Net profit 1,677 8,961 11,937 11,130 cleaner energy sources. We believe this policy favors major Consensus NP 9,054 8,682 8,988 seaborne coal suppliers, of which BANPU is among the foremost Diff frm cons (%) (1.0) 37.5 23.8 players. We raise our coal price forecasts (based on the Norm profit 2,100 10,961 11,937 11,130 Newcastle Export Index) by $5/ton to $85/80/80 for 2017/18/19F Prev. Norm profit 10,530 10,682 9,633 and $75/ton in the longer term. Note that our new assumption is Chg frm prev (%) 4.1 11.7 15.5 still conservative vs. China’s target range of RMB535/ton +/-6% Norm EPS (Bt) 0.4 2.1 2.3 2.2 which would equate to roughly $75-85/ton. Given our higher coal Norm EPS grw (%) na 422.0 8.9 (6.8) Securities price assumption, we raise our norm profit forecasts by 4-20% in Norm PE (x) 41.8 8.0 7.4 7.9 2017-20F and raise our SOTP-based DCF-based 12-month TP EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 7.0 6.3 6.3 (2018F base year) to Bt25 from Bt22 previously. P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 Volume recovery Div yield (%) 2.2 5.1 6.8 6.3 In 2H17F and 2018F, we expect BANPU to benefit from a ROE (%) 3.0 13.0 12.8 11.2 recovery in sales volume especially in Indonesia which was Net D/E (%) 99.7 75.3 67.0 54.6 Securities particularly hit hard by weather conditions in 1H17. We believe production volume in the second half of this year will be 20% PRICE PERFORMANCE higher than the first half. Still, we think our assumption of 23.5m ton 2017F sales volume for Indonesia is conservative vs. the (Bt/shr) BANPU (%) Thanachart company’s 25m ton guidance. Heading into 2018-19F, we expect 22 Rel to SET Index 40 volume to normalize to 24.5m and 25.5m tons, respectively. 20 30 18 20 16 Stock de-rated despite ROE improvement 10 14 BANPU has de-rated significantly over the past 5 years and is 12 0 now trading below 1x P/BV (2018F) compared to over 2x P/BV at 10 (10) Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Thanachart the end of 2012 when coal price was in a similar price range ($80-95/ton). We think this is unjustified given: a) ROE is improving to 12% in 2017-18F (similar to where it was in 2012), COMPANY INFORMATION and b) a stronger outlook for coal prices with clear policy support Price as of 21-Sep-17 (Bt) 17.00 from China’s government. On a P/E basis, BANPU also looks cheap at 7-8x while offering over 6% yield (2018F). Market Cap (US$ m) 2,648.5 Listed Shares (m shares) 5,161.9 Laggard play with likely street upgrades Free Float (%) 92.1 We expect strong earnings in 2H17F, driven by higher volume, Avg Daily Turnover (US$ m) 33.3 higher prices and stable cost. We see strong sequential earnings 12M Price H/L (Bt) 21.10/14.90 growth with normalized profit reaching Bt3bn in 3Q17F and Sector ENERG Bt3.3bn in 4Q17F, vs. Bt2.2bn and Bt2.6bn in 1Q-2Q17A (based on our calculations). Given these numbers, we think consensus Major Shareholder Vongkusolkit family 12.69% are still behind the curve and expect further street upgrades. Our Sources: Bloomberg, Company data, Thanachart estimates norm earnings forecasts are 10-33% higher than consensus for 2017-19F while our TP is 14% higher. Additionally, we view BANPU as a laggard play, with the stock having underperformed the market and other energy names in the recent run up. Please see the important notice on the back page COMPANY NOTE BANPU CHAK REUNGSINPINYA We raise our coal price We raise our coal price assumption (based on Newcastle Export Index) by $5/ton across assumption by $5/ton the forecast period to $85/ton in 2017F, $80/ton in 2018-19F and $75/ton over the longer across the forecast periods term. We think our assumption is well supported by recent policy movement and actions implemented by China’s government in order to keep coal prices to within a certain band. Ex 1: We Raise Our Coal Price Assumption By $5/ton Across The Forecast Period (US$/tonne) 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F LT Coal price New 85 80 80 75 75 Old 80 75 75 70 70 Change (%) 6.3 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.1 Sources: Company data, Thanachart estimates China targets RMB535/ton According to comments from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), +/-6% coal price, implying China’s government aims for thermal coal price (based on Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg about $75-85/ton for the benchmark) to be in the range of RMB 535/ton +/- 6%. If coal prices move outside of this seaborne market band, we believe the government would likely step in to take action. In our view, the NDRC needs coal price to remain high enough to discourage consumption, while at the same time minimizing potential impact on power and energy costs for industries and households. Given this target band, we think the seaborne market will also find support in the $75-85/ton range. As such, we believe that our new coal price forecasts better capture China’s policy for the coming years. Ex 2: China’s domestic coal price (QHD5500) vs. seaborne benchmark (NEWC6000) (RMB/tonne) (US$/tonne) QHD 5500 NEWC 6000 (RHS) 800 120 750 110 700 100 650 600 90 550 80 500 70 450 400 60 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Sources: Bloomberg, Thanachart estimates Note: QHD 5500: Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg NEWC 6000: Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg We raise our norm EPS With a higher coal price assumption, we raise our earnings forecasts by 4% in 2017F and forecasts by 4-20% in 2017- 12-20% in 2018-20F and raise our target price to Bt25 from Bt22. Our earnings forecasts 20F and raise our TP to are 10-33% higher than Bloomberg consensus in 2017-19F and our TP is now 14% higher. Bt25 from Bt22 THANACHART SECURITIES | DAIWA CAPITAL MARKETS 2 COMPANY NOTE BANPU CHAK REUNGSINPINYA Ex 3: Earnings And Target Price Revisions (Bt/shr) ————————— Norm EPS ————————— TP 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F New 2.12 2.31 2.16 1.87 25.00 Old 2.04 2.07 1.87 1.56 22.00 Change (%) 4.1 11.7 15.5 19.8 13.6 Consensus 1.93 1.74 1.73 21.84 Thanachart vs consensus (%) 10.0 32.9 24.6 14.5 Sources: Company data, Thanachart estimates BANPU has de-rated below On the back of our more bullish forecasts, we expect BANPU’s ROE to increase to 12% in 1x P/BV despite strong ROE 2017-18F, where it last was in 2012. Yet, BANPU’s valuation has continually de-rated over recovery in 2017-18F the past 5 years. The stock has traded at over 2x P/BV but now languishes below 1x P/BV (2018F). With improved ROE and a strong coal price outlook, we believe the stock deserves to trade at a much higher multiple. Nevertheless, our new 12-month TP of Bt25 implies less than 11x 2018F P/E and 1.3x 2018F P/BV. Ex 4: ROE Reverting To Double Digits Ex 5: …yet Stock Continues To De-rate (%) (x) 14 2.8 12 +2 STD = 2.3x 10 2.3 8 +1 STD = 1.9x 6 1.8 4 Average = 1.4x 2 1.3 0 -1 STD = 1x (2) 0.8 -2 STD = 0.6x (4) (6) 0.3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sources: Company data, Thanachart estimates Sources: Bloomberg, Thanachart estimates Strong 2H17F earnings is We believe that strong 2H17F earnings would be a potential catalyst for the stock. We the key catalyst, in our view expect sequentially higher ASP and volume growth for 3Q-4Q17F to be the main drivers of earnings, partially offset by lower profit from the power business due to normal seasonal factors. THANACHART SECURITIES | DAIWA CAPITAL MARKETS 3 COMPANY NOTE BANPU CHAK REUNGSINPINYA Ex 6: Volume Recovery In 3Q-4Q17F Ex 7: With Higher ASP Following The Rise In Coal Price (m tonnes) (US$/tonne) Coal price TTM Indonesia ASP Australia Indonesia China 14 100 12 90 10 80 8 70 6 60 4 50 2 40 0 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17F 4Q17F 3Q17F 4Q17F Sources: Company data, Thanachart estimates Sources: Company data, Thanachart estimates Note: Australia and China volumes are on equity basis; Indonesia is on 100% Note: Coal price TTM = Trailing 12-month average of Newcastle coal price basis Ex 8: 12-month DCF-derived TP Calculation Using A Base Year Of 2018F (Bt m) 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Terminal Value Coal EBITDA and equity income 28,224 26,731 24,101 21,713 22,064 22,437 22,790 23,139 23,483 23,823 23,627 - Free cash flow 10,667 13,461 12,369 12,679 12,601 12,828 13,042 13,246 13,441 13,628 13,275 186,762 PV of free cash flow 9,831 11,432 9,677 9,140 8,371 7,852 7,354 6,882 6,435 6,012 5,407 76,074 Risk-free rate (%) 4.5 Market risk premium (%) 7.5 Beta 1.3 WACC (%) 8.5 Terminal growth (%) 2.0 BANPU's sum-of-the-parts valuation (Bt m) PV of cash flow 164,468 Less: net debt 85,367 Less: minority interest 18,984 Equity value – coal 60,117 Power and other investments 69,513 Total equity value 129,630 # of Shares 5,162 Total value per share (Bt/shr) 25.00 Sources: Company data, Thanachart estimates THANACHART SECURITIES | DAIWA CAPITAL MARKETS 4 COMPANY NOTE BANPU CHAK REUNGSINPINYA Valuation Comparison Ex 9: Valuation Comparison With Regional Peers EPS Growth —— PE —— —— P/BV —— – EV/EBITDA – — Div.