Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 1470 year climate ∼ 500 years are evident in numer- ± 1 4896 4895 500 years is stable, and appears to be harmonically ± , and P. T. Moss 1470 2 ∼ 1470 year cycle of abrupt climate change is well-established, ∼ 6100 year cycle associated with Heinrich IRD events during the last ∼ , F. W. Menk 1 This discussion paper is/has beenPlease under refer review to for the the corresponding journal final Climate paper of in the CP Past (CP). if available. School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Centre for Space Physics, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Faculty of Science Abstract The existence of a manifesting in Bondspheric temperature ice-rafting cycle, debrisEl and Niño/Southern (IRD) cyclical Oscillation climatic events, (ENSO)questions conditions variability Dansgaard–Oeschger on and Holocene precursory atmo- climate intensity. to(deMenocal This stability et increased cycle and al., hence is 2000). anthropogenic central Tosolar date impacts to forcing no on has causal climate been mechanism previouslytion has suggested. of been Here identified, astronomical we although variables showcycle related that and interacting to several combina- Earth’s associated orbit key may isotopic be spectral causally signals. related The to this linked with the cycle may thus be regardedsional as cycle, a incorporating high frequency orbital, extensiontropical solar of and and the anomalistic Milankovitch lunar years preces- and forcing Earth’s through rotation. interaction with the 1 Introduction Rapid, millennial-scale climatic oscillations of 1470 ous palaeoclimatic records inBraun the et North al., Atlantic 2005; and Schulz,Atlantic Pacific 2002; marine (Bond cores Turney et et show al., that al.,Oeschger 2004). abrupt 1997, Greenland temperature climate 2013; ice change cycles is cores1995; associated and and with Bond North IRD Dansgaard– et events al.,et (Bond 2013; al., 1997) Heinrich, et demonstrated 1988). al.,ously that during Bond 1997; millennial-scale the (Bond last climatic Bond et glaciationGreenland, variability, and and al., continued operating linked into continu- Lotti, 1997, to the atmospheric Holocene 2013; circulationThis as Mayewski cycle’s disturbances weakened periodicity IRD over events of in the North Atlantic. An astronomical correspondence to the 1470 year cycle of abrupt climateA. change M. Kelsey Clim. Past Discuss., 11, 4895–4915, 2015 www.clim-past-discuss.net/11/4895/2015/ doi:10.5194/cpd-11-4895-2015 © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 1 Queensland, St Lucia,2 QLD, 4072, Australia and Information Technology, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, 2308,Received: Australia 9 September 2015 – Accepted: 22Correspondence September to: 2015 A. – M. Published: Kelsey 20 ([email protected]) OctoberPublished 2015 by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 5 25 10 20 15 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 10 year cy- ± 1470 yr climate ∼ ecting the thermo- ff erent from previous attempts ff 4898 4897 1470 year cycle (Gagan et al., 2004; Turney et al., ∼ 1470 yr cycle. Firstly, an innovative approach used in ∼ This conceptual model and its implementation are di Solar forcing, through sunspot cyclicity and by association with the perihelion, was As sea-surface temperature (SST) cooling preceded these IRD events, and calv- Based on the similarity in lengths of this millennial-scale climate cycle and the Sothic Correlated with Bond IRD and Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles is the 1480 flux in Earth’s atmospherein (Libby, 1960), the whilst level the oftive perihelion to plays solar the an insolation anomalistic importantmodel. reaching year, role These based Earth. combined factors on Earth’s were the expectedmillennial-scale rotation-revolution to perihelion, signal account cycle was for and the rela- also sub-harmonics various parameterisedrecord. of other this for harmonics this found in the radiocarbon isotopic also incorporated in our model parameters. Sunspot activity modulates the cosmic ray ability and long-term bolometric variabilityisotopic has signatures been identified associated in with understanding this various cycle (cf. Damon and Sonett, 1991). 2 Background Variables were selected for this studyAs to capture the the Sun elements of andthey our Moon conceptual were model. are clear responsible candidates.Nutation, for The the which Moon precessional is is cycle responsiblealters a (Lowrie, for the cyclical nutation 2007: (Lowrie, latitudinal 58), wobbling 2007:Milankovitch perspective of 58). demonstrated to the through incoming Earth’s hisreceived axis solar radiation is curves over radiation latitudinally that a (Lowrie, dependentvariables the 18.6 was 2007: (Imbrie yr amount appropriate. and 58). periodicity, Latitudinal of Imbrie,influence, variations As radiation also in 1979), incorporating tide the one heights of selection52). occur the of due conceptual model’s to these precepts the (cf. lunar Lowrie, 2007: to explain the causethis of study this issearch the for a inclusion cause of ofprior this Earth’s research millennial-scale rotation cycle into and this relative associateddeclinations subject, to sub-harmonics. complements the Unlike the novel the use anomalistic simple of year trigonometric astronomical in data modelling the of used solar in and our lunar research. cle in the Pacific associatedEl with Niño/Southern the Oscillation onset (ENSO) of variability climaticatmospheric–oceanic (Turney conditions et activity suitable al., was for 2004). proposed increased ENSO’sscale as dynamic climate an cycle alternative because cause associatedmate of convective (Clement the systems and millennial- dominate Peterson, the 2008).flow of planet’s These heat, cli- systems air witness and the moistureinteraction from meridional (Clement the poleward tropics and which isand Peterson, propelled are 2008; by hypothesised ocean–atmosphere as Gagan contributingported to et ice moisture al., surge and and 2004; heat sea-ice formation Turney in through et the trans- al., 2004), rotation are contributing factors totaken the into cause of consideration the along climatecycle cycle. with could It solar be was explained. expected forcing,of that, Such the a a cause conceptual conceptual framework of model that the is can important contribute as to the the understanding development radiocarbon vari- ing events occurredwere dismissed in as multipleocean–atmosphere causal link ice-sheets, through (Bond solar internal etMayewski forcing et has factors al., been al., 1997; to suggested 1997;associated (Bond Bond Schulz, ice-sheet with et IRD 2002). and al., collapse events 1997; It Lotti, produced was colder, 1995). less hypothesised saline Instead, that waters, the an a discharge of ice cycle of Egyptian chronology (cf. Lockyer, 1964), we hypothesised that precession and glacial, coincident with cold1997; Mayewski phases et of al., 1997; the Schulz, Dansgaard–Oeschger 2002). cycle (Bond et al., 2004). Solar forcing of ENSOthe at relative orbital precessional scales positions isTurney of evident et in the al., climatic 2004). equinox datasets and based perihelion on (Gagan et al., 2004; haline current (THC), triggering2008). abrupt major climate change (Clement and Peterson, 5 5 20 15 10 25 15 25 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | of the ◦ 1800 yr 1470 yr ∼ ∼ culties that ffi 18.6 yrs as a variable is also inappro- ∼ 4900 4899 1470 yr cycle through a lunar forced ∼ 1470 yr cycle (Munk et al., 2002). ∼ 1800 yrs, it is not suitable for investigating the cause of the ∼ 103.77 years, which is the first closest rotational return to within 1 ∼ of the node, at which time an eclipse must occur (Lowrie, 2007: 58). Exact align- ◦ The Saros cycle and nodal return are problematic for a number of reasons; these in- Additionally, the use of lunar nodal cycle of The Metonic lunation cycle recurs at 19 yr intervals (to within a couple of hours) 11 cycle because it is largergeneralised than their the connection cycle to being investigated. the Keeling and Whorf (2000) cycle, but were notcrepancies. able to The explain gravitational the forcingwhich mechanisms mechanism influenced behind the used the vertical by mixing variations of Keelingmagnitude or oceanic to and time layers, cause was Whorf dis- the not (2000), seen as of great enough occurrence of eclipses that recur(Gutzwiller, in 1998: the 596). same Keeling part andelling of attempt Whorf the to heavens (2000) explain every used the 18 yrs the cause 11 Saros of days the cycle 1470 in yr their cycle but mod- encountered di starting geographic longitude. Thisfrequencies RRA (Damon variable and is Sonett, found 1991; in Sonett the and radiocarbon Suess, spectral 1984; Stuiver and Braziu- clude the irregularities associated with2000), the and Saros the cycle appropriateness of of using eclipsescycle the (Keeling is Saros and cycle Whorf, one (Munk that et al., has 2002). been The Saros known since ancient times, enabling the prediction of the eclipse and gravitational potential of thewith vacant the lunar nodal nodes. position Additionally, assunspot the the cycle Moon Metonic aligns at cycle 57 sharesthe yrs, Metonic a enhancing cycle harmonic its is with suitability anforcing, the and for ideal is variable use Schwabe commensurate that with in can the(cf. this other be Cartwright, variables model. associated unlike 1974; with the Consequently, Munk Saros both et cycle solar of al., and eclipses 2002). lunar resulted in disparities betweenwell peaks as of large their time interactingmensurate discrepancies. variables and Their variables tidal (Keeling was and peaks, problematicthe Whorf, as relative Saros 2000) to cycle selection the and of perigee’scause perihelion incom- relationships the (Cartwright, relationship with 1974; between both the Munksic tropical et solar harmonic al., cycle of 2002). and Additionally, Saros be- cycle produces a ba- and is therefore closelywith coupled the current to perihelion thecapture was tropical diachronic selected year. precessional as The athe dynamics Metonic variable Metonic by return because cycle association associated it isthe with has naturally sidereal the the year associated capacity anomalistic is with to year: very the close tropical the system; anomalistic year. and The the Metonic length cycle of also fulfils the Whilst the Saros cycle ofin eclipses and prior lunar nodal research cyclicitythe have (Keeling been Metonic and extensively cycle used Whorf, ofcontained 2000; lunations (see within Munk below). which and a Cartwright, cyclical eclipse 1966), pattern we is used naturally self- priate because it needs topast be interest coupled in with the a Saros lunation cyclePettersson, of to 1930). eclipses fulfil The (Keeling lunar its and nodes potential. Whorf, are This 2000;plane, the Munk explains and intersections et are of al., the points 2002; ecliptic at∼ and which lunar solar orbital and lunar eclipses occur when the Moon is within 1930: 282–283). The Metonic cycleof of investigating lunations lunar-forced is climate a cycles. far more suitable for the purposes 3 The Model This study presents a simplevalues of trigonometric three model variables: involving (i) thesociated Schwabe superposition with sunspot of cycle; the mean (ii) current Metonicpassage perihelion, cycle and from of lunations (iii) perihelion as- thetime to anomalistic of perihelion year, Earth’s the (365.2596 rotation time andperihelion days). for revolution to Earth’s This (RRA) occur relative over in to theused turn same the was geographic perihelion, determines longitude i.e. the on the Earth. time The for RRA periodicity ments of the Moon andsolar node eclipses. result The in closer the total Moon solarEarth to and as these lunar individual nodes, eclipses, the gravitational as greater influences well the align as gravitational pull annular (cf. on Lowrie, 2007: 50–59; Pettersson, 5 5 20 25 15 25 10 10 20 15 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ∼ 200 years of ∼ 1470 year climate 209 year SdV and ∼ ∼ 4902 4901 21 ky) (Berger, 1977a, 1977b; Lowrie, 2007: 59). ∼ 1470 yr climate cycle, given that linked atmospheric–oceanic ∼ 11 year Gleissberg solar cycles may be associated with this ± The Sun and Moon cause oceanic, atmospheric and gravitational tides on Earth, The 11.4 year sunspot cycle appears to be associated with short-term signals and The perihelion is a time of maximum annual solar insolation and an annual peak in Heinrich (1988) suggested solar modulation of the climate as a factor in his model but 88 1470 yr cycle of abrupt climate change, with schools of thought divided into two pri- harmonics in palaeoclimaticity radioisotopes (Damon datasets, and as Sonett,from 1991; well solar modulation Eddy, as 1976). offlux temperature the These reaching interplanetary cyclic- cosmogenic Earth, magnetic and isotopes are field1989; likely anticorrelated and Stuiver result with associated and sunspot cosmic Quay, count 1980).carbon ray (Stuiver Medium-term isotope and Braziunas, cyclical curve, wiggles knowncosmic of ray as 209 flux yrs the by in the SdVsumption, the solar cycle, modelling wind radio- are has (Damon and suggested assumed Sonett, that to 1991; the be Suess, superposition 2006). a of On modulation this the as- of driving wind and oceanand currents Russell, (Keeling 2008; and Wilson, Whorf,cant 2000; 2013), in the Lowrie, and cause 2007; their of Toggweiler the combined influence is potentially signifi- coupling has been identified2000). Both as lunar a tidal major2011; patterns driver Stuiver (Oost of et et al., al., climate1988; 1993; 1995) change Pettersson, Turney and (deMenocal et 1930; evidence Raspopov et al., of etrecord. 2004; al., solar al., Turney forcing and (Bond Palmer, et 2007) al., are 1997; found Heinrich, in the palaeoclimatic ∼ by the Moon.110 The ky perihelion (based on is thethe nonstationary, Milankovitch length moving precessional cycle of in ( the anThis anomalistic precessional open-ended year) signal and cycle is is evident of in an palaeoclimatic integral records component and of has been associated spring tide (Berger, 1991; Lowrie, 2007; Thomson, 1997) and its timing is influenced reliable direct observations of sunspotStuiver activity and (Damon Quay, and 1980), Sonett,from solar 1991; these isotopic Eddy, variability 1976; datasets for (Damon and medium Sonett, to 1991). long-term cycles is inferred ences (via rotation and revolution), withThese geographic sensitive longitude regions delineating cyclic occupy returns. keyevents, locations deep-water associated with formation ENSO (DWF) phenomena,ability and IRD to upwelling influence atmospheric within andtransport. the oceanic Such circulation, THC, areas heat with distribution, include the and theeas moisture West inferred of Pacific DWF Warm in Pool theWeddell (Partin North and et Atlantic Ross al., (Bond Seas 2007) et (Mueller and al., et ar- 2013; al., Clement 2012; and Pritchard Peterson, et 2008) al., and 2012). 4 Discussion Solar forcing and lunar forcing∼ have both been suggested individuallymary as opposing causes camps of (Broecker, 2003; the Munkthe et al., respective 2002). themes Insolation of vs. these gravitationtional are two forcing hypothetical is positions closely (Munk linked etIRD with al., events, theories 2002). whilst connected Gravita- to theoscillations the argument thermohaline of for current ENSO insolation and adopted is in in strongly the our linked tropical conceptual withthe Pacific model cause millennial-scale (Broecker, of is this 2003). one cycle. However, of the joint gravitational-insolation position influences as cycle (Braun et al., 2005; Damon and Sonett, 1991). However, with only qualified that it wouldpulses need of to ice-rafting. accommodate Our locational conceptualsitive sensitivity model to to assumes astronomical filter geographic forcing regions the through that stronger periodic are orientation sen- to peak solar and lunar influ- nas, 1989), and theThe 209 year modelled Suess RRA de activityon Vries was solar (SdV) compared and cycle lunar to is declinations[Fig. 5500 a years linked 1], to harmonic of the generated of astronomical current using thisSkyChart data perihelion-based cycle. planetarium based Metonic III software: lunation (DeBenedictis, NOVA 1993–2004).relative 2.13, to Lunar (Hand, these 1989–1994) nodal positions. and positions were also examined 5 5 15 10 25 20 15 25 10 20 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ) ◦ ◦ 38 yr in- ± 456 ∼ ) cycle (Table 1) is a harmonic ◦ 2300 year Hallstadt (Damon and 0.6 ∼ longitude of the start point, and the < ◦ 1.54 ∼ 4903 4904 1470 yr cycle. 26 ky (Berger, 1977a). This movement is in opposite ∼ ∼ (Table 1). The RRA-Metonic return (209 years), based ◦ ). A 133 yr radiocarbon spectral signal (Damon and Sonett, ◦ ) phase-aligned to the sunspot and perihelion-based Metonic ◦ 0.18 ), and these returns occur in conjunction with a series of Metonic 1.54 ◦ < ers by 104 years) to the mean Holocene length at 1375 years (Bond ≤ ff 0.2 < 206 years) (Fig. 3b). These findings suggest that both the SdV and Hallstadt 500 year intervals (Fig. 1), suggesting a causal relationship with both the RRA ∼ ± Interestingly, the 209 year Suess de Vries and The cycle with the most precise return to the starting longitude is 1868 years (0.017 The Metonic lunation and Schwabe sunspot cycles are harmonically related at peri- From our astronomical data, sinusoidal curves representing lunar and solar decli- These Metonic eclipses (Fig. 1) were only total when the Moon was at the south lunar The modelled cyclicity of Earth’s RRA is similar to known isotopic spectral peaks in 1470 cycle (Fig. 3a) matches the RRA return to cycles result from the superposition of solar and lunar forcing. Stuiver and Braziunas, 1989). Theing 57 longitude year cycle after is 285 years nonstationary, (Table returning 1; to Fig. its 2). start- on interaction between theit Moon is and to Earth’s the rotation,(RRA) return is ( based closer on to interaction the between SdV the cycle sunspot than cycle and Earth’s rotation and has no correspondence to thespectral sunspot signal and Metonic in cycles, but palaeoclimaticstrongly appears associated as data with a (Bond major oceanic tidal etlunar forcing, node coincident al., at with 2013). 1842 the yrs Moon Thisin (Keeling at and association cycle perigee Whorf, with appears and 2000); a at toout neap 1842 tide yrs of be a at alignment Metonic the ( return starting occurs geographic longitude as the RRA is 90 ods of 57 and 114 years,and representing temperature, potential with peaks/troughs gravitational of stresses gravitational greatest influence ods during appear solar in eclipses. palaeoclimatic These records peri- (Chambers et al., 2012; Edvardsson et al., 2011; 1991) is also reflected insunspot the cycle astronomical are data factors of of solar the declinations (Fig. 1); itnations and (Fig. the 1)datasets, correspond with including key thea isotopic 133 209 year spectral year Metonic frequencies and harmoniceclipses in 228 (solar occurs year palaeoclimatic declinations). as harmonics A part series of (lunar of the declinations) total Metonic-perihelion and and lunation annular series solar at node. As total eclipses can onlyof occur eclipses when the (Fig. Moon 1) is at naturally perigee, subsumes this Metonic the series perigean cycle. Consequently, enhanced iunas, 1989), with thesame strongest longitude ( of suchcycles. signals As associated seen with inis Table RRA 493 1, years returns the ( to shortest the RRA cycle associatedof with sunspot a and Metonic Metonic cycles return withtion the of RRA cycle, their which individual are influences. importantof in The this the signal, 1479 amplifica- year amplifying ( thethe phase-aligned climate sunspot signal cycle; it duringis is the also also early similar the Glacial mean (di length (Bondet of et al., 2013). al., 2013). The RRA cycle period Sonett, 1991) cycles are produced by the interacting variables of this model; the SdV 1479 year cycle is within 0.59 tervals, as the lunarhence the nodal apsidal axis axis aligns∼ (Fig. with 1). the Bond semi-majorand IRD Metonic-perihelion axis events cycles. occurred of The close Earth’sevent Little to (Bond orbit Ice this et Age and al., harmonic (LIA)dent produced 2013) at with the closely a latest total associated Bond south with nodal IRD Metonic-perihelion eclipse. eclipses, coinci- palaeoclimatic records (Bond et al., 1997; Damon and Sonett, 1991; Stuiver and Braz- eclipses (Fig. 1). Crosses in the right hand columns of Table 1 identify the coincidence direction to the apparent annual solar path through the constellations. with IRD events, Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillations,1997; and Heinrich, ENSO 1988; variability Turney (Bond et et al.,from 2004). al., the The Milankovitch interaction precessional ofdirections: cycle results two apsidal (perihelion/aphelion) nonstationary and precessionalImbrie and equinoctial cycles Imbrie, precessions that 1979). The (Berger, moveat equinoctial 1977a; the in precession intersections sees opposite of the the equinoxes,through celestial which the equator occur constellations with over the ecliptic, move in retrograde motion 5 5 10 25 15 20 25 10 15 20 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 1480 yrs. ∼ ects ice-sheet me- ff E geographical longitude, 493 year cycle is the base ◦ ∼ of a longitudinal return, with a new series ◦ 4905 4906 1800 year oceanic tidal cycle and major spectral peak in ∼ 2300 years a phase shift occurs to realign the RRA cycle to within ∼ 1470 yr cycle of climate change, resulting from the amplification of the ∼ ects Earth’s insolation at sub-Milankovitch frequencies, influencing climate ff return to the starting geographical longitude, highlighting regional sensitivity. ◦ Our modelling and astronomical data suggest that a Based on modelling of the 493 year cycle, there are generally three to four RRA In conclusion, we have seen that the superposition of the Earth’s rotation cy- Previously, latitudinally dependent Milankovitch radiation curves demonstrated that These Metonic total and annual solar eclipses were ushered in and out by partial 1470 climate cycle and its harmonics. Wobbles in solar and lunar declinations as- beginning every 1868 years. This periodalso matches be the most associated precise with RRA an return that can By the RRA mechanism,are phase-locked the to internal North climate eventsENSO Atlantic’s and phenomena. IRD to The confluence millennial-scale and of climatic solar variability Dansgaard–Oeschgeroceanic, insolation of extremes cycles and and peak atmospheric gravitational, tides at the same longitudes likely a IRD data (Bond et al., 1997).that Trough to may peak be of associated each with series4437–4930 the is years Hallstadt a that maximum cycle. may of The be 2465 maximum years associated length with of the each occurrence series of is Heinrich events. 5 Conclusions the 493 yr cycle, at ∼ sociated with this modelnutation match a spectral frequencies inand isotopic data isotopic and patterns; suggestbeen although that interpreted previously as the inferredand cause medium- Sonett, of to 1991). these The long-term physicaltive isotopic cycles forcing mechanisms of inducing patterns for responses solar doing has in so variability Earth’s are (Damon internal gravitational climatic and system. radia- a 1 series running concurrently that are within 1 cle (RRA), perihelion-based Metonic cycle, and Schwabe sunspot cycle emulate the terns of incoming solarMetonic-sunspot radiation cyclicity found appears in to isotopicprecipitation, correspond datasets. SST, to Furthermore, sea nonstationary level the peaks,Edvardsson 57 57 year year et and patterns al., geomagnetic 2011; of cycles Stuiver and (Chambers Quay, et 1980). al., 2012; harmonic of The RRA’s 493 year harmonic isphase-aligning proximate with to the the Metonic 1482 year cycle harmonic Metonic-sunspot of harmonic 494 at years, 1479 years. Based on chanics, oceanic and atmosphericinfluencing currents, ice-rafting and events atmospheric and temperatures freshwater(Clement and and discharge Peterson, SST, into 2008; de areas Juan of2012), et DWF as al., 2010; of well Mueller as the et ENSO’s THC al., dynamic 2012; atmospheric–oceanic Pritchard et activity. al., astronomical cycles cyclically influence insolationimity based on (Imbrie orientation and and solardeclinations Imbrie, prox- that 1979). are Consequently, variations considered in in data this of model solar are and indicative lunar of altered isotopic pat- Metonic-RRA cycle (493 yrs) by phase alignment with the sunspot cycle at which transverses the IPWP. phase aligns with the Metonictheoretically cycle, demonstrated. phase-alignment These of cycles solar were andminimum phase-aligned lunar occurred forcing in can 1954 (Nicholson, be when 1956) aeclipse in sunspot (Table conjunction 2), with after(Nicholson, a 1956). which perihelion-based This sunspot Metonic eclipse numbers occurred at rose midday rapidly at during 145 Solar Cycle 19 solar eclipses. Each eclipse57–76 yrs. series The includes 76 4–5 yrsources solar cycle (eg., eclipses Hunten has spanning et been a al., associated period 1993). Given with of that the at Gleissberg 57 yr cycle intervals by the some sunspot harmonic gravitational forces associated withmodel the and lunar reflected perigee in associated cyclethe astronomical last are data. 5000 yrs also Three (Fig. captured out 1)in of by occurred the four in this Bond close Metonic cycles proximity eclipsecycle to in these series. being south involved These nodal in total resultscontra eclipses the Munk support et cause the al., of 2002). hypothesis the of 1470 yr the cycle perigean (cf. Keeling and Whorf, 2000; 5 5 10 25 20 15 20 25 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 4908 4907 We thank the School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Man- ation spectrum, in: TheUniversity of Sun Arizona, in Tucson, 1991. Time, Sonett, C., Giampapa, M., and Matthews, M.Andersen, (Eds.), M. L., Ekström,Sudden G., Ahlstrøm, increase A. in P., Stenseng, tidaloutlet L., response glacier, Khan, Geophys. linked Res. S. to Lett., A., calving 37, and doi:10.1029/2010GL043289, and Forsberg, 2010. R.: acceleration atclimate variability a during large the Greenland Holocene warm period, Science, 288, 2198–2202, 2000. and modern bog-pine chronologies from southern Sweden, Trace, 9, 173–180,Indo-Pacific Warm 2011. Pool and El2004. Niño–Southern oscillation, Quatern. Int., 118–119, 127–143, 639, 1998. during the past 130,000 years, Quaternary Res., 29, 142–152,in: 1988. 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M., Fricker, H. A., Vaughan, D. G.,Raspopov, Broeke, M. O. R. v. M., d., and Dergachev, V. A., Ogurtsov, M.Schulz, G., M.: On the Kolström, 1470 year pacing T., of Dansgaard–Oeschger warm Jungner, events, Paleoceanography, Sonett, H., C. P.and Suess, and H. E.: Correlation of bristlecone pineStuiver, ring M. widths with and atmospheric Quay, 14C P. D.: Changes inStuiver, atmospheric M. and carbon-14 Braziunas, attributed T. F.: Atmospheric to 14C a and variable century-scale sun, solar oscillations, Nature, 5 5 10 10 20 30 15 25 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 1470 yr cycle. ∼ 21.7522.35 284.72 22.93 285.00 23.58 285.40 24.27 285.55 24.95 285.33 284.93 − − − − − − Sunspot Metonic (yrs) ) Phase Alignment ◦ 22.7322.72 284.82 22.68 285.05 22.68 285.38 22.72 285.43 22.77 285.15 284.70 4912 4911 − − − − − − ) Precision( ◦ ) to the same geographical longitude. Note the presence of important ◦ 2 eclipse eclipse eclipse eclipse eclipse type type declination R.A. declination R.A. < Period (yrs) Cycle Return ( 0186813754932361 0.017 0882 359.82986 0.1972257 0.215389 359.6231479 0.017 0.18 0.3951764 359.443104 0 0.197 359.4251972 0.215 0.592 0.377 1271 359.245597 0.557 0.395 0.7722465 x 0.789 0.575778 359.0481090 0.592 0.755 x 0.969285 0.986 x x1583 0.772 358.8512153 0.789 0.952 x 1.1661660 358.654 x208 1.364 494 0.969 x 2360 2076 0.986 x 358.608 1.149 1167 x 358.472701 2257 1.166 988 1.346 1.5442542 1.561 388 674 1.363 1.392 358.276 1482 1194 1.526 1.741 x 358.096 103 1.542 358.079 1972 1.561 1.724 1.938 x 1.904 1.741 x x 1.921 285 1.938 x x 209 2075 673 Perihelion-based Metonic eclipses (1916–2011). Details of these eclipses show RRA returns ( 1992 4 Jan1973 Annular 4 Jan North 1954 Annular 5 Jan North 1935 Annular 5 Jan North 1916 Partial 5 Jan North Lunation Year Date Lunation2011 Node 4 Jan Solar Partial North Solar Lunar Lunar Table 2. eclipse/lunation date, nodal type,Data and generated lunar by and Skychart solar III declinations and and NOVA 2.13. right ascension (R.A.). Table 1. spectral signals, including the Suess de Vries cycle and variations of the Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 4914 4913 Solar and lunar declination interaction of the Metonic-perihelion cycle at 19 yr in- The 57 year Metonic-sunspot cycle in geographic context. Vertical axis represents Figure 2. geographic longitude and horizontal axisTime time between in points years, from onthe an same the arbitrary longitude Metonic-sunspot start is for curve 285close 80 years. to is The centuries. the 57 1482 years, year RRA Metonic-sunspot cycleof and period of the time 57 (solid 1479 year years. between vertical cycle. The lines) points 285 is year at and 1482 year periodicities are harmonics Figure 1. tervals. Bond IRD eventsannular occurred solar close eclipses occur to atship the the of lunar juncture these nodes of cycles these atSolar solar to declinations aphelion/perihelion. and form the Total lunar the ecliptic and declinations. solidcurve; is sinusoidal The the curve, relation- shown and dashed through lunar line declinations the is the the dotted dashed ecliptic. line sinusoidal associated with obliquity. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Combined RRA and sunspot sinusoidal curves: Combined RRA and Metonic sinusoidal curves 4915 (b) (a) SdV and Gleissberg cycles. Combination of the RRA, Metonic and sunspot cycles Figure 3. reproduce the SdV andSdV Gleissberg (209 cycles; years) and Gleissberg (95SdV years); (205–206 years) and Gleissberg (91 years).