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Capital Investment for Renewables Presentation to the IEA Working Group

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Capital Investment for Renewables Presentation to the IEA Working Group Capital Investment for Renewables Presentation to the IEA Working Group Rupesh Madlani Senior Research Analyst - Renewables +44 203 134 7503 [email protected] Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Sector specialists are responsible for keeping sales and trading up to date on research views in their sector. Sector specialists are not part of the Barclays Capital equity research organisation. Customers of Barclays Capital in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.lehmanlive.com or can call 1-800-253-4626 to request a copy of this research. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING FOREIGN AFFILIATE DISCLOSURES, BEGINNING ON PAGE 94 Barclays Group – Renewables and Wind Farm Investment Active in Renewables: Balance sheet summary £bn 31-Dec-08 30-Jun-09 Project financing for individual projects Total assets 2,053 1,545 Lending to Renewables Corporates Derivative gross-up 917 507 Providing access to capital markets AUM on balance sheet 69 66 Equity stakes in Renewables projects Settlement balances 30 35 Goodwill & Intangible assets 10 10 Investment banking advisory Adjusted tangible assets 1,027 927 Key facts Corporate history 300 years of history 2009: Acquire Standard Life Bank Operating in 50 countries 2009: Sale of BGI to BlackRock 145,000 employees 2008: Acquire Lehman Brothers US operations 49 million customers and clients 2005: Acquires majority stake in Absa 2 Renewables: demand drivers and cost of energy Energy security Capex 2009e Capex 2008 Capex 2007 Power generation Cost of energy (USDc/kWh) (USD bn) (USD bn) (USD bn) Large Hydro power 3-7 na 43 18 Nuclear power 3-6 na na na Reducing cost Government Gas 5-7 na na na of energy support Wind power 5-8 50 50 33 Coal 5-8 na na na Reducing Biomass 5-12 7 7 7 Job carbon creation Offshore Wind 7-12 2 1 na emissions Concentrated Solar Power 12-18 na na na Increased demand Solar photovoltaic 20-45 25 38 21 Increasingly, job creation is being seen as an additional driver to support renewables in the current economic environment. Wind Power is the most commercial form of renewable power generation – and therefore is seen as least dependent upon subsidies and government incentives – while maintaining its position as the fastest-growing form of renewable power. Solar PV demand remains mainly driven by government incentives in a few countries that are aimed at generating economies of scale. We continue to believe that cost reduction will be the most significant driver for the industry. Concentrated solar power technologies offer a competitive, utility scale and storage advantages that, in our view, will continue to stimulate investment over the coming years. Source: REN21, Industry Sources, Barclays Capital 3 Wind farm operators Investment considerations Operational considerations Site selection Availability Wind resource assessment Power curve Site design and technical requirement Seasonality Permitting Serviceability Regulatory support Warranty claims Turbine selection Performance monitoring Project economics forecasting Financial considerations Construction risks and contractors Grid connection Leverage Hedging Residual value Testing and commissioning Finance costs Project timing and risk management Funding structure Project returns Overall cost of energy might be lower or higher than base case scenario 4 Wind farm project development and valuation Valuation for wind projects, although values depend on a number of variables, and vary from country to country based upon tariffs, power prices, load factors and other factors. We suggest a value of EUR 1.4–1.6mn/MW for operational assets, EUR0.7–0.8mn/MW for assets under construction, and EUR0.1–0.2mn/MW for those under development. 20-25 years 1–2 years 6–18 months 12–18 months 6–18 months Sign construction contracts Sign financing contracts Implement hedging positions Operation and Testing Sitting Development Authorisation Pre-Construction Construction Maintenance . Accept construction work . Sign long-term power purchase agreement (if applicable) Prospecting phase Wind measurement Administrative procedures Selection of suppliers (turbines, Most of the construction risk is Delivery of the wind farm by site surveys civil borne by signing a memorandum of Size of marketing staff Probability of success varies engineering, etc) the contractor acceptance. Operation Selection of appropriate sites by region can begin Signature of long-term leases with Negotiation of the construction Test phase corresponding to the owners of Definition of File applications for various contract contractor’s performance Terms and conditions on which the land project technical authorisations commitments electric power is sold vary greatly characteristics Call for tenders from banks by country and may or may not be Negotiation of the financing secured by long-term contracts contract Source: Barclays Capital 5 Wind project economics – 50MW 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Revenue (EUR thd) 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 8,620 - O&M -1577 -1608 -1641 -1673 -1707 -1741 -1776 -1811 -1847 -1884 -1922 -1961 -2000 -2040 -2081 -2122 -2165 -2208 -2252 -2297 - D&A -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 -2438 - Finance costs -3250 -3147 -3038 -2922 -2799 -2668 -2529 -2381 -2224 -2058 -1880 -1692 -1492 -1280 -1054 -814 -559 -288 0 0 Pre-Tax 1356 1427 1504 1587 1676 1773 1877 1990 2110 2240 2380 2530 2691 2863 3048 3246 3459 3687 3930 3885 - Tax -447 -471 -496 -524 -553 -585 -620 -657 -696 -739 -785 -835 -888 -945 -1006 -1071 -1141 -1217 -1297 -1282 Net Income 908 956 1007 1063 1123 1188 1258 1333 1414 1501 1594 1695 1803 1918 2042 2175 2318 2470 2633 2603 - Debt repayment -1643 -1746 -1855 -1971 -2094 -2225 -2364 -2512 -2669 -2835 -3013 -3201 -3401 -3614 -3839 -4079 -4334 -4605 0 0 - D&A 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 2438 FCF -13,000 1703 1648 1590 1530 1467 1401 1331 1259 1183 1103 1019 931 839 742 640 533 421 302 5071 5041 Project parameters Operational assumptions Capex Structure Debt structure Project profitability Total Capacity (MW) 50 Opex/ MW (EUR thd) 15 Turbine 75% Equity 20% NPV 16,064 Load Factor (EUR mn/ MW) 24% % Inflation p.a 2% Civil work 20% Debt 80% Discount rate 6.25% Capex/ MW 1.3 Depreciation period 20 Other dvt costs 10% Maturity (Year) 18 IRR 9.0% Price/ MWh 82 On turbine cost 100% Cost of debt 6.25% Operation (years) 20 Tax 33% Cost of Energy sensitivity analysis – Capex (EURmn)/ Load factor (%) IRR comparison analysis 87.5 15% 80.0 13% 72.5 11% 65.0 IRR U/MWhEUR/ 9% 57.5 7% 50.0 21.0% 23.0% 25.0% 27.0% 29.0% 31.0% 33.0% 5% France Germany UK Portugal Spain China India US Canada Italy 1.2 EURmn/ MW Load factor 1.4 EURmn/ MW 1.6 EURmn/ MW 1.8 EURmn/ MW Source: Barclays Capital 6 Wind project financing Due diligence from lending institutions increased from a project, counterparty, technology and warranty perspectives which have lengthened the financing approval process Activity levels in Q2 and Q3 2009 demonstrates wind as an asset class is remaining an attractive destination of capital Wind projects remain a less liquid asset which lacks a secondary market for the normalised flow of capital Wind installations financing status 2006-2012e Wind project financing – quarterly developments (Q1 08 – Q3 09) 50 15 13.5 44.3 12.9 38.8 11.8 11.9 40 12 10.8 10.9 33.1 1.2 1.8 1.8 5.6 27.0 18.1 9 30 10.3 29.7 GW GW 20.5 13.4 5.5 20 12.1 6 14.5 14.9 10.5 10.6 11.3 9.1 10.1 13.9 7.3 10 20.5 7.9 3 5.5 14.9 14.9 14.5 11.5 5 6.6 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Commissioned Financing secured Permitted Announced To be announced Onshore Offshore Source: Barclays Capital, NEF 7 Barclays Capital Wind Demand Forecast 2009-2013 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e Americas – 10.6% 2009-2013e CAGR Global 19,647 26,963 26,979 33,110 38,829 44,286 49,511 Growth % 29.3% 37.2% 0.1% 22.7% 17.3% 14.1% 11.8% . We forecast US installations to reach 6.4GW in 2009, a 23% demand contraction Americas 5,686 8,968 7,470 10,443 12,087 13,495 14,834 driven by the difficult financing environment and an extremely high level of activity in Growth % 60.9% 57.7% -16.7% 39.8% 15.7% 11.6% 9.9% 2008. USA 5,189 8,346 6,405 8,812 10,193 11,075 12,025 Canada 387 526 625 1,037 1,104 1,384 1,463 C+S America 110 96 440 594 791 1,036 1,346 Asia Pacific 5,290 9,057 10,579 12,481 14,525 16,837 19,169 Growth % 39.8% 71.2% 16.8% 18.0% 16.4% 15.9% 13.8% India 1,575 1,800 1,800 1,980 2,218 2,484 2,807 China 3,306 6,300 7,560 8,996 10,616 12,314 13,915 Japan 144 342 345 351 358 368 387 Australia 8 482 555 667 704 746 800 Asia Pacific – 16.5% 2009-2013e CAGR New Zealand 152 4 164 293 390 630 900 Others 105 129 155 194 240 295 360 .
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