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EUROPEAN RENEWABLES: EQUITY RESEARCH 13 January 2010 ler0705_renewables cover_2010 outlook_jan 10_final.qxp 12/01/2010 21:30 Page 1 EUROPEAN RENEWABLES:EUROPEAN OUTLOOK 2010 EQUITY RESEARCH 13 January 2010 EUROPEAN RENEWABLES: 2010 OUTLOOK COMING OF AGE Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 338. Barclays Capital | European Renewables: 2010 Outlook CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 EUROPEAN RENEWABLES – CONVERTIBLES 13 RECOMMENDATION CHANGES 16 RECENT COMPANY VISITS 19 EUROPEAN RENEWABLES BENCHMARKING 27 RENEWABLES HEALTH OUTLOOK 40 HISTORICAL VALUATION 44 CONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMAL 48 GLOBAL SECTOR VIEW 52 CARBON: THE EU ETS: THE ONLY WAY IS FLAT 54 APPENDIX 1: BENCHMARKING 59 APPENDIX 2: EUROPEAN RENEWABLES VALUATION MODEL 62 COMPANIES SECTION 64 13 January 2010 1 Barclays Capital | European Renewables: 2010 Outlook Summary of our Rating, Price Target and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold) Company Rating Price Price Target EPS FY1 (E) EPS FY2 (E) Old New 11-Jan-10 Old New %Chg Old New %Chg Old New %Chg European Renewables: Energy Efficiency 2-Neu 2-Neu Abengoa SA (ABG SQ / ABG.MC) 2-EW 1-OW 23.30 20.00 28.50 42 1.52 1.91 26 2.38 2.65 11 AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV (AMG NA / AMG.AS) 3-UW 3-UW 9.37 4.00 5.00 25 -1.49 -1.49 - 0.95 0.95 - Outotec Oyj (OTE1V FH / OTE1V.HE) 1-OW 1-OW 25.76 30.00 32.50 8 1.17 1.17 - 1.29 1.29 - European Renewables: Solar 1-Pos 1-Pos centrotherm photovoltaics AG (CTN GR / CTNG.DE) 1-OW 1-OW 45.33 43.00 47.50 10 1.89 1.89 - 3.33 3.33 - Conergy AG (CGY GR / CGYG.DE) 2-EW 2-EW 0.87 0.46 0.75 63 -0.21 -0.21 - -0.03 -0.03 - Manz Automation AG (M5Z GR / M5ZG.F) 3-UW 3-UW 65.11 25.00 55.00 120 -1.68 -2.10 -25 0.91 1.30 43 Meyer Burger Technology AG (MBTN SW / MBTN.S) 2-EW 2-EW 271.50 78.00 250.00 221 10.22 7.14 -30 15.73 10.47 -33 Phoenix Solar AG (PS4 GR / PS4G.F) 1-OW 1-OW 42.98 43.00 50.00 16 3.31 1.57 -53 4.15 3.78 -9 PV Crystalox Solar PLC (PVCS LN / PVCS.L) 3-UW 1-OW 0.68 0.55 0.80 45 0.08 0.08 - 0.08 0.07 -12 Q-Cells SE (QCE GR / QCEG.F) 2-EW 2-EW 12.59 11.00 10.50 -5 -9.16 -9.16 - 0.20 0.15 -25 Renewable Energy Corp. ASA (REC NO / REC.OL) 1-OW 1-OW 40.85 80.00 70.00 -12 -0.94 -0.99 -5 2.03 1.92 -5 Roth & Rau AG (R8R GR / R8RG.F) 2-EW 2-EW 32.20 20.50 30.00 46 1.11 1.11 - 1.23 1.34 9 SMA Solar Technology AG (S92 GF / S92G.F) 1-OW 1-OW 97.10 90.00 125.00 39 4.26 4.26 - 4.19 4.93 18 Solar Millennium AG (S2M GR / S2MG.F) 2-EW 2-EW 44.22 20.00 35.00 75 2.28 2.42 6 3.35 3.09 -8 Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente S.A. (SLR SM / SLRS.MC) 3-UW 3-UW 2.85 2.10 2.10 - 0.40 0.20 -50 0.28 0.17 -39 SolarWorld AG (SWV GR / SWVG.F) 2-EW 2-EW 16.36 15.10 15.50 3 0.85 0.85 - 0.97 0.97 - Solon SE (SOO1 GR / SOOG.F) 3-UW 3-UW 8.42 7.00 6.50 -7 -4.48 -10.13 -126 1.06 -0.85 -180 Wacker Chemie AG (WCH GR / WCHG.DE) 1-OW 1-OW 120.05 145.00 145.00 - 3.01 0.16 -95 8.90 7.90 -11 European Renewables: Wind 1-Pos 1-Pos Acciona SA (ANA SQ / ANA.MC) 2-EW 2-EW 95.63 100.00 105.00 5 20.12 20.89 4 3.63 4.65 28 Clipper Windpower PLC (CWP LN / CWPR.L) 2-EW 2-EW 1.75 2.00 1.95 -3 -0.52 -1.10 -112 -0.31 -0.30 3 EDF Energies Nouvelles S.A. (EEN FP / EEN.PA) 3-UW 2-EW 38.47 26.00 36.00 38 1.06 0.96 -9 0.92 0.83 -10 EDP Renovaveis S.A. (EDPR PL / EDPR.LS) 1-OW 1-OW 6.97 8.75 8.25 -6 0.14 0.18 29 0.27 0.24 -11 Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica S.A. (GAM SM / GAM.MC) 1-OW 2-EW 12.64 19.00 14.00 -26 0.86 0.68 -21 1.28 0.91 -29 Greentech Energy Systems A/S (GES DC / G3E.CO) 3-UW 3-UW 24.60 17.50 16.00 -9 0.54 -5.62 -1141 0.54 0.66 22 Hansen Transmissions International N.V. (HSN LN / HSNT.L) 1-OW 1-OW 1.10 1.40 1.30 -7 0.01 0.00 -100 0.05 0.07 40 Iberdrola Renovables S.A. (IBR SM / IBR.MC) 2-EW 1-OW 3.43 3.30 3.95 20 0.10 0.10 - 0.11 0.13 18 Nordex AG (NDX1 GF / NDXGk.F) 2-EW 2-EW 11.25 13.75 13.00 -5 0.35 0.35 - 0.47 0.47 - REpower Systems AG (RPW GR / RPWGn.DE) 2-EW 2-EW 146.75 110.00110.00 - 5.33 5.11 -4 6.24 6.37 2 Suzlon Energy Limited (SUEL IN / SUZL.BO) 2-EW 1-OW 94.75 55.00 125.00 127 7.97 0.79 -90 8.49 6.19 -27 Terna Energy SA (TENERGY GA / TENr.AT) 2-EW 2-EW 6.60 4.25 5.75 35 0.17 0.17 - 0.28 0.18 -36 Theolia S.A. (TEO FP / TEO.PA) 2-EW 2-EW 3.47 2.50 2.75 10 -0.43 -0.13 70 -0.26 -0.23 12 Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC / VWS.CO) 1-OW 1-OW 327.60 565.00 540.00 -4 2.82 2.82 - 3.58 3.16 -12 Source: Barclays Capital Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency. FY1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Capital. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Capital. Stock Rating: 1-OW: 1-Overweight 2-EW: 2-Equal Weight 3-UW: 3-Underweight RS: RS-Rating Suspended Sector View: 1-Pos: 1-Positive 2-Neu: 2-Neutral 3-Neg: 3-Negative 13 January 2010 2 Barclays Capital | European Renewables: 2010 Outlook EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Rupesh Madlani The European Renewables team is pleased to present our 2010 Outlook which contains our +44 (0)20 313 47503 key stock ideas for 2010, recommendation changes, valuation analysis, benchmarking [email protected] review, an update of our proprietary Renewables Health Outlook (our 6-12 month lead Barclays Capital, London indicator), summary of Concentrating Solar Thermal and our Knowledge Pages for each company. Arindam Basu We outline below our stock recommendations for 2010 and our recommendation changes +44 (0)20 313 47216 for the year. Our key stocks for 2010 have average upside potential to their price target of [email protected] 33.6% and reflect our conviction in these for the full year. Our investment selection process Barclays Capital, London to select these names is based upon own valuation and benchmarking of our entire coverage universe, individual meetings with 15 companies in November (including four Julien Roques CEOs and seven CFOs) and also reflects our global co-ordinated approach to renewables +44 (0)20 777 30901 with Europe, Asia and the Americas. We roll forward our valuation model to calendar year [email protected] 2010. In addition, we amend our price target assumptions and EPS forecasts to reflect Barclays Capital, London company expectations and sub sector growth rates for the period from 2010 to 2012. European Renewables recommendation structure Wind Solar Energy Efficiency Wind manufacturers Wind operators UpstreamDownstream Equipment Vestas 1-OW EDP R 1-OW REC 1-OWPhoenix Solar 1-OW Centrotherm 1-OW Outotec 1-OW Hansen 1-OW IBR ↑ 1-OW Wacker 1-OW SMA Solar 1-OW Roth & Rau 2-EW Abengoa ↑ 1-OW Suzlon ↑ 1-OW EDF EN ↑ 2-EW PV Crystalox ↑ 1-OWSolar Millennium 2-EW Meyer Burger 2-EW AMG 3-UW Clipper 2-EW Acciona 2-EW Q-Cells 2-EW Conergy 2-EW Manz 3-UW Nordex 2-EW Terna Energy 2-EW SolarWorld 2-EW Solon 3-UW Repower 2-EW Theolia 2-EW Solaria Energia 3-UW Gamesa ↓ 2-EW Greentech 3-UW Key 2010 Overweight, ↑ upgrade, ↓ downgrade Source: Barclays Capital Key stock recommendations for 2010 We outline our key stock recommendations for 2010. Over 2009, on average the share price for our 1-Overweight recommendations increased by 49.1% against 37.1% for our 2-Equal Weight recommendations and 36.8% for our 3-Underweight recommendations.
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