Official Master's Degree in the Electric Power Industry
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UNIVERSIDAD PONTIFICIA COMILLAS ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIOR DE INGENIERÍA (ICAI) OFFICIAL MASTER'S DEGREE IN THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY Master’s Thesis THE WACC AS A METHODOLOGY TO APPROXIMATE THE SPREAD FOR THE ALLOWED RATE OF RETURN FOR RENEWABLE GENERATION AND GENERATION IN ISOLATED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN SPAIN Author: Raúl Arturo Escobar Segura Supervisor: Henar Soto Tejero Madrid, July 2017 Official Master's Degree in the Electric power lndustry (MEpl) Erasmus Mundus Joint Master in Economics and Management of Network lndustries (EMIN) Master's Thesis Presentation Authorization THE STUDENT: RAUL ARTURO ESCOBAR SEGURA ß-*{- kas.t\.-r S THE SUPERVISOR TEJERO Signed Date: ?1..t .AÇ.t ..?9l? Authorization of the Master's Thesis Coordinator Dr. Luis Olmos Camacho Signed.: UNIVERSIDAD PONTIFICIA COMILLAS & UNIVERITÉ PARIS-SUD Summary COMISIÓN NACIONAL DE LOS MERCADOS Y LA COMPETENCIA (CNMC) Master in Economics and Management of Network Industries (EMIN) Master in the Electric Power Industry (MEPI) The WACC as a Methodology to Approximate the Spread for the Allowed Rate of Return for Renewable Generation and Generation in Isolated Energy Systems in Spain The Spanish electricity regulatory framework states that the regulated sectors must be remunerated through a reasonable rate of return, calculated as a spread to be added to the average government bonds yield. In that context, the objective of this work is to use the well-known financial model of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to approximate the allowed rate of return for renewable energy generation and generation in the isolated energy systems. As of today, the allowed rate of return has been set without any clear methodology. This work pretends to provide the regulator with a replicable methodology that can be used in the following regulatory periods and that is clear to all stakeholders. The WACC / CAPM model is selected because of its widespread use among energy regulators and within different industries. The methodology followed consisted on an extensive analysis of the Spanish regulatory framework and a comprehensive benchmarking of selected European cases that could provide additional insights and research elements. Although in general this work has relied on the WACC /CAPM model, it has been supplemented: in spite of its extensive use and strong grounding in financial theory, the WACC/CAPM model has certain limitations that make it unsuitable as the sole model for assessing rates of return to renewable projects. To tackle some of these insufficiencies, the model has been complemented to include asymmetric risks and price risk. A liquidity test was also added to the methodology. In the same way, it was decided that the peer group of companies used to calculate the rate of return for generation in the isolated systems will be the same as the one used for transmission and distribution activities. Regarding the methodological choices to the CAPM, like frequency of the data or reference market used, a complete analysis is presented. The results suggest that the WACC/CAPM based rates of return are lower (in approximately 60bps) than the allowed rates in the current regulatory framework. This can be explained through the differences in the economic environment when those rates were set and nowadays, even though historical data of the past 6 years have been considered. These differences in the economic situation should be taken into account on the next regulatory period. Regarding the existing spread between the rate for renewables and the rest of regulated activities (Namely, T&D and Isolated Systems) the obtained results are in line with the present regulatory framework, with a difference of about 100bps. Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude first to Ms. Henar Soto Tejero of the Energy Division of the CNMC for supervising this thesis project and whose expertise, understanding, and constant support are an integral part of this work. I would like to thank as well to Francisco Fournier, his help and contributions where a vital part of this master’s thesis. Finally I want to thank the CNMC for making possible this internship experience. A special thanks to the EMIN coordinators and supporting staff for their support and guidance during these two years of constant learning and adventures and to my fellow EMIN friends that made this time an unforgettable experience. In addition, I want to thank my family and friends for their support and love. 4 Contents Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 2 Contents.............................................................................................................................................. 4 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................................................ 9 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 9 1.1. Motivation of the thesis topic .............................................................................................. 10 1.2. Objectives ............................................................................................................................. 12 1.3. Structure of the report ......................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 2 .......................................................................................................................................... 14 2. Theoretical principles ............................................................................................................... 14 2.1. Renewable energy sources (RES) ......................................................................................... 14 2.2. Isolated Insular Energy Systems ........................................................................................... 17 2.3. Smart Grids ........................................................................................................................... 19 2.4. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) .......................................................................... 21 2.5. Allowed Rate of Return ........................................................................................................ 23 Chapter 3 .......................................................................................................................................... 24 3. General Framework .................................................................................................................. 24 3.1. Industry Framework in Spain ............................................................................................... 24 3.1.1. Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Spain ....................................................................... 25 3.1.2. Isolated Energy Systems in Spain ..................................................................................... 29 3.2. Regulatory Framework in Spain ........................................................................................... 32 3.2.1. Remuneration to Renewable Energy Generation ............................................................ 33 3.2.2. Remuneration to the generation in isolated systems ...................................................... 39 3.2.3. Remuneration to Smart Grids investments ..................................................................... 43 Chapter 4 .......................................................................................................................................... 44 4. State of the Art ......................................................................................................................... 44 4.1. Previous methodology proposed for T&D activities ............................................................ 44 4.1.1. Key steps to identify the relevant features of the methodology ..................................... 44 4.1.2. Defining the general parameters ..................................................................................... 53 4.1.3. Cost of equity ................................................................................................................... 55 4.1.4. Cost of debt ...................................................................................................................... 58 4.2. European Benchmarking ...................................................................................................... 64 4.2.1. British methodology for RES WACC ................................................................................. 64 4.2.2. DiaCore Report, February 2016........................................................................................ 68 4.2.3. France: remuneration in the “Zones non interconnectées” (ZNI) ................................... 72 4.2.4. Italy: Sardinia and Sicily .................................................................................................... 73 4.2.5. Greece: Crete ................................................................................................................... 74 4.3. CNMC report on the airport sector .....................................................................................