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FOREIGN POLICY REVIEW Juni/Lipanj/June 2006 ANALIZA BOSNA I HERCEGOVINA U KONTEKSTU PROMJENA AMERIČKE I SLABOSTI VANJSKE POLITIKE EU

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FOREIGN POLICY REVIEW Juni/Lipanj/June 2006 ANALIZA BOSNA I HERCEGOVINA U KONTEKSTU PROMJENA AMERIČKE I SLABOSTI VANJSKE POLITIKE EU FOREIGN POLICY REVIEW Juni/Lipanj/June 2006 ANALIZA BOSNA I HERCEGOVINA U KONTEKSTU PROMJENA AMERIČKE I SLABOSTI VANJSKE POLITIKE EU UVOD 3 Michael Weichert, Fondacija Friedrich Ebert, BiH / [email protected] SLABOSTI VANJSKE POLITIKE EU 5 Amer Kapetanović / [email protected] PREGLED VANJSKE POLITIKE SAD-A 18 Haris Hromić / [email protected] BIH I GLOBALNI IZAZOVI 44 Mirza Kušljugić / [email protected] FOREWORD 61 Michael Weichert, Friedrich Ebert Foundation, BiH / [email protected] WEAKNESSES OF THE EU FOREIGN POLICY 63 Amer Kapetanović / [email protected] U.S. FOREIGN POLICY REVIEW 78 Haris Hromić / [email protected] BIH AND GLOBAL CHALLENGES 103 Mirza Kušljugić / [email protected] ESEJI ZAMOR OD ŠIRENJA EU I ZAPADNI BALKAN 58 Franz-Lothar Altmann / [email protected] Foreign Policy Review—godina 1, broj 1 1 Poštovani čitaoci, „Vanjska politika je isuviše važna da bi bila prepuštena samo vladama”–ova rečenica Willy Brandta je poziv za građane i njihove organizacije da se pozabave međunarodnim odnosima i uključe u debate i procese oblikovanja javnog mnijenja i pripremanja političkih odluka koje se odnose na vanjsku politiku. Zato organizacije kao što je Friedrich Ebert Stiftung promoviraju analize, debate i izgradnju kapaciteta za vođenje vanjske politike, na osnovu širokog konsenzusa u društvu i na principima međunarodnih i globalnih odnosa. Prije nekoliko godina smo imali zadovoljstvo da budemo pozvani da podržimo grupu eksperata i državnih službenika, među kojima i iskusnih diplomata, kako bi uspostavili takozvani Diplomatski forum, koji se predstavio kao platforma za analizu i debatu o političkim izazovima u ovoj zemlji, i kao mjesto susreta za predstavnike civilnog društva, javne uprave i političkih institutcija. Na osnovu toga je 2005. formirana Vanjsko-politička inicijativa, koja predstavlja prvi „trust mozgova“ za pitanja vanjske politike u BiH. Ovo se može smatrati krupnim korakom naprijed u nastojanju da se ojačaju kapaciteti za daljni razvoj vanjske politike u BiH. S obzirom na posebne okolnosti koje su dovele do nastanka današnje države BiH, važnost ove inicijative se ne treba potcjenjivati. Centralna država u BiH, još uvijek slaba i – s obzirom na snažno međunarodno prisustvo s jedne strane, i snažne interese etnički obojenog političkog spektra s druge – sa ograničenim sposobnostima da formulira i provodi autentičnu vanjsku politiku, zasigurno će imati koristi od ove inicijative, kao što to već pokazuje uspjeh njenih aktivnosti u nekoliko prvih mjeseci. Osim toga, ovo je pravovremen poduhvat: početak pregovora sa Evropskom unijom o Sporazumu o stabilizaciji i pridruživanju predstavlja ogroman izazov za zemlju i njene institucije. On zahtijeva mobilizaciju svih raspoloživih resursa i intenzivna nastojanja na izgradnji društva koje će ga podržati, s obzirom na široki raspon posljedica koje će ovaj proces imati po zemlju i društvo. Neće biti potrebno samo imati na raspolaganju tehnička stručna znanja koja iziskuje ovakav poduhvat. Potrebni su ne samo tehnička ekspertiza, politička volja i javna podrška, nego i kreativnost i vizija u pogledu ciljeva koje Bosna i Hercegovina nastoji postići i uloge koju namjerava igrati u zajedničkom nastupu regionalnih i evropskih igrača i partnera. Šta BiH može očekivati od EU, a šta ona može ponuditi EU i međunarodnoj zajednici? S obzirom na „fazu promišljanja“ koju je sebi zadala EU u pogledu procesa proširenja i produbljivanja EU, znaci zamora i uzdržanosti u njenim nastojanjima da nastavi sa procesom pristupanja, uprkos ponovnom potvrđivanju obaveza i obećanja, zahtijevaju aktivniju ulogu zemalja Zapadnog Balkana u lobiranju i predstavljanju samih sebe kao onih koje će obogatiti a ne opteretiti Evropsku uniju, kao i optimalno korištenje svih prilika koje nudi proces pristupanja. Osim pozitivnog utjecaja koji ovakav poduhvat ima na sposobnost države da ostvari koherentnu vanjsku politiku, on će isto tako doprinijeti i identifikaciji i izgradnji zajedničkog interesa svih naroda koji žive u ovoj zajedničkoj državi, kao i stvaranju neke vrste identiteta na osnovu tih interesa. Vanjsko-politička inicijativa i Vanjsko-politička analiza predstavljaju važne inicijative i instrumente u tom pravcu, koji će vjerovatno poboljšati šanse za postizanje ovih ambicioznih ciljeva. Friedrich Ebert Stiftung će nastaviti da podržava ove inicijative. Michael Weichart Fondacija Friedrich Ebert, Bosna i Hercegovina Foreign Policy Review—godina 1, broj 1 3 SLABOSTI VANJSKE POLITIKE EU Balkanska refleksija Amer Kapetanović deja proširenja Evropske unije dala je Balkanu priliku da napravi historijski otklon od ideologija osvajanja, destrukcije i razdvajanja. Briselska konstrukcija zamijenila je ideju I destrukcije. Evropa je ponudila dovoljno povoda balkanskim društvima da se identificiraju s otvorenim, liberalnim i bogatim EU konceptom. Velika su očekivanja. Da li će jednoga dana razočarenja postati još veća, ovisi o mnogim faktorima. Evropska integracijska perspektiva sofisticirala je donekle retoriku političara. Učinila da oni koji su do jučer vladali raspirujući nacionalističke strasti sada govore o zajedničkoj evropskoj budućnosti. Data su krila novoj tehnokratskoj eliti koja pokazuje sve više interesa za politiku. Teško je negirati pozitivnu energiju koja se oslobodila nakon historijskoga Solunskog samita1 na kojem je EU potvrdila evropsku perspektivu zemalja zapadnog Balkana. No, neoprezno je ignorirati i neke opasnosti koje još vrebaju na obje strane, kako na Balkanu, tako i EU samoj. Zbog tmurne sadašnjosti, nejasne budućnosti ljudima na ovim prostorima još se nudi prošlost, varljiva i primamljiva refleksija nekih boljih vremena. Nezavisnost Crne Gore, sve izglednija nezavisnost Kosova ogolili su jednu drugu dimenziju balkanske sadašnjosti. Pokazalo se koliko je građanima jednog dijela BiH i Srbije primamljivija ideja etničke podjele od ideje zajedničkog života u EU bez granica. Premda u političkobirokratskom smislu podijeljen na zapadni i onaj drugi Balkan, region ostaje jedna kompaktna i povezana cjelina kada su izazovi i problemi u pitanju. On za EU i Evropljane i dalje ostaje, kako je to Marija Todorova svojevremeno napisala, imaginarni Balkan. Rumunija i Bugarska najdalje su otišle i čekaju u redu za punopravno članstvo. Obje zemlje, koje bi članicama EU trebale postati 2007. godine, napravile su vidan progres, što se može vidjeti iz izvještaja koje je razmatrala Evropska komisija. Rumunija, međutim, kaska s provođenjem reforme pravosuđa, kao i reformom starog koncepta po kojem su privilegirane državne firme mogle dobijati povoljne kredite centralne banke. Bugarska također ima problema s refomom pravosuđa i nezavisnošću svoje centralne banke, što zapravo jeste problem za tzv. strukturalne reforme koje za cilj imaju etabliranje evropskog modela liberalne ekonomije. Obje zemlje imaju problema s porastom korupcije i kriminala. Otuda i uvjet objema zemljama da do kraja godine naprave određene refor- mske zadatke kako bi dobile zeleno svjetlo za članstvo u EU 2007. godine. Albanija je svoje pregovore o zaključenju Sporazuma o stabilizaciji i pridruživanju započela 2003. godine. Uz puno problema i zastoja uspjela je potpisati Sporazum tek u 1 Samit EU – zemlje zapadnog Balkana održan je u Solunu, za grčkog predsjedavanja EU, a jedan od njegovih temeljnih zaključaka jeste obećanje da će zemlje regiona biti integrirane u EU. No, ovo obećanje odmah se u startu mimoišlo s relanošću, jer EU nije bila spremna obećati i više sredstava za konsolidaciju situacije u zemljama za koje se tvrdi da imaju EU perspektivu. Samo 200 miliona eura za svih pet zemalja zapadnog Balkana od 2004. do 2007. premalo je za veća očekivanja od navedenoga samita (vidi: Evropski forum br. 6-7, juni / juli 2003., objavljeno kao dodatak sedmičnika „Vreme”, br. 652 od 3.7.2003. Foreign Policy Review—godina 1, broj 1 5 Slabosti vanjske politike EU junu ove godine. Kaskanje u strukturalnim reformama ogleda su u veoma lošoj poreznoj kontroli i privatizaciji. Porast kriminala i korupcije problemi su koje slaba država još nije u stanju riješiti. Srbija i Crna Gora konačno su se razišle, demokratski, mirno i dostojanstveno.Srbija je postala sljednica kontinuiteta državnosti, ali i kontinuiteta skrbništva nad provođenjem Dejtonskog sporazuma u BiH. Kada je potpisan Dejtonski sporazum, jedan od garanata (uz Hrvatsku) postala je i tadašnja SR Jugoslavija. Potom je ulogu garantora preuzela državna zajednica Srbija i Crna Gora. Danas je ostala samo Srbija koja tu ulogu koristi/zloupotrebljava za povezivanje unutarnjeg ustrojstva BiH sa budućnošću Kosova. Nije li malo apsurdno da se govori o briselizaciji i usvajanju evropskih standarda, kad se istovremeno ne pokušava dokinuti pravna stečevina uplitanja jedne zemlje u unutrašnju politiku druge? Kako se uopće u takvom okruženju može govoriti zajedničkoj briselskoj perspektivi čiji preduvjet je dobrosusjedska suradnja i otklon od Daytona? Može li biti dobrosusjedske suradnje kada Beograd, pa i Zagreb posežu za dejtonskim nasljeđem, a od Brisela zahtijevaju zeleno svjetlo za vlastitu fazu briselizacije? Makedonija je odlučila aplicirati za članstvo premda su je mnogi nagovarali da to ne učini. Ova je hrabrost iz Brisela nagrađena signalom za otpočinjanje pregovora o članstvu. Ipak, to su tek samo pregovori čiji je ishod neizvjestan. Ponajprije zato jer pored strukturalnih i fiskalnih problema, koji su karakteristika gotovo svih zemalja u jugoistočnoj Evropi, Makedoniju pritišću i neki drugi. Grčka joj odriče pravo na ime;2 Bugarska pravo na jezik i pismo; Srpska pravoslavna crkva pravo na autokefalnost
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