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Policy vacuum in the face of a of emigration from

ESPN Flash Report 2017/50

PAUL STUBBS & SINIŠA ZRINŠČAK – EUROPEAN SOCIAL POLICY NETWORK JULY 2017

Since joining the Description , Croatia has Although statistical evidence is limited, zero. Although figures from foreign experienced there are suggestions that Croatia has statistical offices may slightly overstate significant levels of faced a new wave of emigration since the figures (including Croatian emigration, joining the European Union on 1 July holders who were not living in Croatia, particularly of people 2013. Throughout the and most for example), it is clear that true levels of prime working age, of the first decade of the , Croatia of emigration from Croatia are higher with official statistics was a country of net immigration, than official statistics suggest, perhaps significantly mainly of citizens from other parts of double or even triple. Without a underestimating the the former . According to the population census, tighter enforcement extent of emigration. Croatian Bureau of Statistics (CBS), net of a 2012 Law which requires anyone Combined with falling migration (the amount by which leaving Croatia for a year or more to birth rates, emigration exceeded immigration) rose cancel their residence permit, or emigration from 1,472 in 2009 to 17,945 in 2015 representative survey data, any figures contributes to overall , when a total of 29,651 persons used are no more than an informed shortages of key emigrated (CBS, 2016). The latest guess. figures (CBS, 2017) suggest that skills, and an ageing What is clear, however, is that the 36,436 people emigrated in 2016, with population. Although majority of emigrants are of prime net migration at 22,451. Most experts demographic trends working age. Assuming that the age and politicians agree that the true figure have been a cause of structure of all those who emigrated is political concern, is probably much higher although roughly the same as recorded CBS there have been few different figures are frequently cited in figures suggest, almost 50% of those policy initiatives. The the public domain which are not sourced emigrating were between 20 and 44 Government of adequately. Higher figures are usually years old in 2015. Moreover, a recent Croatia could do more based on figures from the statistical study (Župarić-Iljić, 2016) suggests to promote circular offices of key emigration countries. For that some 50% of emigrants had migration, investing in example, between 2014 and 2015, completed secondary education and those professions and alone had an increase of around 8% higher education. There are geographical areas 34,548 registered foreigners with where propensity to also concerns that there has been Croatian citizenship (DStatis, 2016), a migrate is highest. significant emigration of healthcare figure higher than the Croatian statistics professionals, with estimates that 525 for emigration as a whole (the CBS medical doctors left Croatia between LEGAL NOTICE suggested that some 12,325 Croatian 2013 and 2016, equivalent to the total citizens emigrated to Germany). This document has been number of doctors working in or prepared for the European According to Irish statistics, the number hospitals, two of the biggest in Commission. However, it of Irish residents born in Croatia reflects the views only of Croatia (Croatian Association of Hospital increased from 980 in 2011 to 5,202 in the authors, and the Physicians, 2017). Commission cannot be held 2016 (CSO, 2017), whereas CBS figures responsible for any use show emigration to Ireland in 2015 at which may be made of the information contained therein.

Further reading Outlook & skills shortages and a further widening of regional disparities. Božić, S. (2014), “Hrvatska migracijska commentary The danger of long-term negative politika: od skice prema strategiji”, in repercussions on the labour V. Puljiz, J. Tica and D. Vidović (eds.), At least at the rhetorical , Migracije i razvoj Hrvatske: podloga za there is widespread political market, pension, healthcare and hrvatsku migracijsku strategiju. concern about the high levels of education systems of these trends : Chamber of Commerce; 285 – migration out of Croatia which, far outweigh the short-term gains 300. in terms of relieving pressure on alongside declining birth rates, CBS (Croatian Bureau of Statistics) contributes to a significant employment and reducing (2016), “First Release – Migration of population decline in Croatia and to unemployment. Population of of Croatia, a rapidly ageing population. The 2015”. Web: http://www.dzs.hr/ Recommendations from a (accessed 2017.) Government’s programme for -funded 2016-2020, which includes study in 2012 (Meznarić and CBS (Croatian Bureau of Statistics) “demographic renewal” as a (2017), “First Release – Migration of Stubbs, 2012) remain relevant, Population of Republic of Croatia, priority, has a vague commitment including: more timely and 2016”. Web: http://www.dzs.hr/ to encouraging young people to accurate data and research; (accessed June 30 2017). stay and those who left to return, promoting circular migration; as well as including the Croatian Croatian Association of Hospital promoting a regional approach to Officials (2017). Web: diaspora in development policies migration from neighbouring http://www.hubol.hr/ (accessed June (Government of Croatia, 2016). countries; and investment in 22 2017). There appears to be no new migration-loss regions, in young CSO (Irish Statistical Office) (2017), migration strategy following the people and in women. Ultimately, “Registered Foreigners, 2016”. Web: 2013-2015 period, which in any the trend can be halted only by a http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/rele case focused more on immigration change in structural preconditions asespublications/documents/population and asylum issues, and on rather than protectionist policies, /2017/Chapter_5_Diversity.pdf (accessed June 21 2017). technical, regulatory and security although investment in improved concerns rather more than on the conditions of employment for DStatis (German Statistical Office) issue of emigration (Government professions at risk of emigration, (2016), “Registered Foreigners, 2015”. Web: of Croatia, Ministry of Internal including healthcare, R&D and IT Affairs, 2013). Although the levels https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigur sectors would make a difference es/SocietyState/Population/MigrationIn of post-EU membership emigration (Župarić-Iljić, 2016; 26). tegration/Tables_ForeignPopulation/Citi are relatively low compared to Promotion of immigration also zenshipTimeSerie.html (accessed June countries such as , needs to be on the Croatian 22 2017). and , the social impacts of political agenda (Božić, 2014). (2016), emigration need to be addressed, “Programme 2016-2020”. Web: not least in terms of the danger of https://vlada.gov.hr/UserDocsImages/ ZPPI/Dokumenti%20Vlada/Program_Vl

ada_RH_2016_2020.pdf (accessed June 29 2017). Government of Croatia, Ministry of Internal Affairs (2013), “Migration Strategy 2013 – 2015”. Web: https://www.mup.hr/UserDocsImages/ minstarstvo/2013/MIGRACIJSKA%20P OLITIKA%202013-2015.pdf (accessed June 29 2017). Meznarić, S. and P. Stubbs (2012), “Social Impact of Emigration and Rural- Urban Migration in Central and Eastern , Country Report – Croatia”. European Commission and GVG. Župarić-Iljić, D. (2016), “Emigration from the Republic of Croatia after the Accession to the European Union”. Zagreb: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. Web: http://www.fes- croatia.org/fileadmin/user_upload/FES_ Iseljavanje_web.pdf Authors Paul Stubbs (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb) and Siniša Zrinščak ()

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