Title: An informed thought experiment exploring the potential for a paradigm shift in aquatic food production Authors: Caitlin D. Kuempel1,2*, Halley E. Froehlich1,3,4, and Benjamin S. Halpern1,5 Affiliations: 1National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA 2 School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia 3Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 4Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 5Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA Keywords: Aquaculture; Blue Revolution; ecosystem-based fisheries management; Neolithic Revolution; seafood *Correspondence to: Caitlin D. Kuempel +61402284982
[email protected] School of Biological Sciences University of Queensland St. Lucia, QLD, 4072 1 Abstract The Neolithic Revolution began approximately 10,000 years ago and is characterized by the ultimate, nearly complete transition from hunting and gathering to agricultural food production on land. The Neolithic Revolution is thought to have been catalyzed by a combination of local population pressure, cultural diffusion, property rights and climate change. We undertake a thought experiment that examines trends in these key hypothesized catalysts of the Neolithic Revolution and patterns of today to explore whether society could be on a path towards another paradigm shift in food production: away from hunting of wild fish towards a transition to mostly fish farming. We find similar environmental and cultural pressures have driven the rapid rise of aquaculture, during a period that has now been coined the Blue Revolution, providing impetus for such a transition in coming decades to centuries (as opposed to millennia).