plu s… Peter Stead Wales 2010: Year Zero Simon Brooks Ethnic cleansing in civic Wales Roger Scully Double coalition land Stevie Upton and Brian Morgan Jury out on Ieuan’s new direction Elin Jones Food strategy for the 21st Century Katie-jo Luxton Profes sor Economic growth’s collateral damage John Osmond Wales’s university revolution Williams’ Jane Redfern Jones Border wars in Wrexham Mererid Hopwood fight against Cynghanedd gives life to Welsh verse Prys Morgan Ancient Britons and London Aborigines Alzheimer ’s www.iwa.org.uk Summer 2 01 0 No. 41 | £10 summer 2 010 Editor: John Osmond Associate Editors: Falling out Geraint Talfan Davies Rhys David over money Administration: Helen Sims-Coomber Two weeks following the May election the new Prime Minister David Cameron Design: visited the National Assembly and declared he wanted his relationship with it to marc @th eundercard.co.uk be based on “mutual respect”. He said he regarded the nations of the UK as a To advertise family which he wanted to keep together. And he added, “I don’t want our family Tel: 029 2066 0820 to fall out over money”. However, unless things change pretty soon, and they show little sign of doing so, Cardiff Bay and Westminster will be doing just that. Institute of Welsh Affairs In the Con-Lib 30-page document The Coalition: our programme for government , 4 Cathedral Road published in May, Wales gets just one specific mention, and it’s not encouraging. It Cardiff CF11 9LJ comes under the heading ‘Political Reform’ and states: “We recognise the concerns Tel: 029 2066 0820 expressed by the Holtham Commission on the system of devolution funding. Email: [email protected] However, at this time, the priority must be to reduce the deficit and therefore any www.iwa.org.uk change to the system must await the stabilisation of the public finances. Depending The IWA is a non-aligned independent think- on the outcome of the forthcoming referendum, we will establish a process similar tank and research institute. Members (annual to the Calman Commission for the Welsh Assembly” . subscription £40) receive agenda three times Gerald Holtham, Chair of the Welsh Government’s Independent Commission a year, can purchase reports at a 25 per cent on Funding and Finance for Wales, described this statement as “surreal”. Why? reduction, and receive discounts when attending Because he has calculated that if the Treasury were to reform the way devolution IWA events. is funded so that it relates to a needs-based formula rather than the present one that relies on a population count, it would save around £3.5 billion. So if the Branches Westminster’s priority is, as it says, to reduce the deficit, that would make a North Wales Secretariat significant contribution. c/o Huw Lewis But this is where politics intervenes. That £3.5 billion saving would come 6 Maes yr Haul, Mold, Flintshire CH7 1NS almost entirely from a reduction in Scotland’s block grant. Scotland has benefited Tel: 01352 758311 enormously since the Barnett formula was introduced back in 1979 because its Gwent Secretariat population has declined. However, with the Scottish Parliament elections looming c/o Chris O’Malley next May, the Westminster government is leery about touching its budget. Indeed, University of Wales, Newport, Caerleon Campus the Scottish threat in the form of the SNP has been the major reason why no PO Box 179, Newport NP18 3YG Westminster government has been anxious to tamper with the Barnett formula. Tel: 01633 432005 Meanwhile, as Gerald Holtham’s Commission has definitively demonstrated, West Wales Secretariat Wales has been losing out by at least £300 million a year. This is the extra c/o Margaret Davies money we would be entitled to if devolution was funded on a needs-based system Principal’s Office, Trinity University College, analogous to the one used by the Treasury to distribute money to the English Carmarthen SA31 3EP regions. Wales would receive at least 114 per cent of average English expenditure Tel: 01267 237971 per head compared with the 112 per cent it actually receives. This should be taken into account before any budget cuts are directed at Wales. Swansea Bay Secretariat An analysis of Treasury figures by Holtham showed that between 1999-2000 c/o Beti Williams and 2010-2011 Wales’s relative expenditure per head on programmes covered Department of Computer Science, by the Barnett formula declined from 125 per cent to 112 per cent of the Swansea University, Swansea SA2 8PP Tel: 01792 295625 corresponding level in England. Had expenditure growth in Wales kept pace with England, it would have meant an additional £1.82 billion, or 11.6 per cent Cardiff and Valleys Secretariat of the block grant, being available to the Welsh Government this year. The c/o Llio Ellis Holtham Commission showed that Scotland is actually over funded on that scale, 3 De Clare Drive, receiving 120 per cent of English expenditure per head, when needs formulae Radyr, Cardiff CF15 8FY indicate the appropriate number is nearer 105 per cent – an excess approaching Tel: 07971 246116 £4 billion a year. Wales in London When she addressed the National Assembly for the first time in June the c/o Robert John Secretary of State for Wales Cheryl Gillan declared that the Barnett formula “was First Base, 22 Ganton Street, London W1F 7BY coming to the end of its existence”. Whether the end is sooner or later expect Tel: 020 7851 5521 some family rows across the UK. contents opinion news outlook Summer 2010 No. 41 opi nion politics 27 How to capitalise on 37 How we could run our the payroll own rail service 4 Wales 2010: year zero 17 Double coalition land Chris Jones says we should Stuart Cole explores the Peter Stead says that, at the Roger Scully anticipates emulate American-style opportunities that might start of a new century for the outcome of next Credit Unions to kick-start arise from Germany’s our country, we need a May’s Assembly election business finance in Wales acquisition of Arriva new politics when all the parties will be in government Food in the City news social policy 19 Back to drawing board 29 Whole food system 8 Latest news from the on social care Elin Jones explains the 39 Dual sector revolution IWA and beyond Joseph Carter urges the thinking behind her comes to Wales Welsh Government to emerging food strategy John Osmond reports on a examine the tools at its for Wales transformation of the Welsh disposal for reforming education system social care funding 31 The political economy of food 40 Innovate or decline 22 Legislating between Kevin Morgan argues that Marcus Longley explains why equals food planning is one of the to survive the Welsh NHS Iwan Davies says London most important new social must speed up change cannot continue treating movements of the early the Welsh Government as 21st Century 42 Adding life to years though it were another Odette Parry agrees with a Whitehall department 34 Market garden new IWA study that we venture reduces need to change the way we outlook carbon footprint think about ageing economy Steve Garrett describes the 11 Simon Brooks creation of an organic Ethnic cleansing in 25 Jury out on Ieuan’s food-growing cooperative environment civic Wales new direction outside Cardiff 12 Mark Rendell Stevie Upton and Brian 44 Economic growth’s Time for the Eisteddfod Morgan assess the Welsh collateral damage to bloom Government’s response to Katie-jo Luxton bemoans 13 Judith Kaufman private sector views on the loss of our biodiversity Subtleties in Translation economic renewal hard drive 15 Carl Cooper Powys tries combining cultures and the back office 46 Tackling coastal culture coming up… flooding without Darlith Eisteddfod Lecture Entry free relying on concrete 64 Thinking About History 3 August 2010, 1.00pm — National Eisteddfod, Pagoda, Ebbw Vale Richard Ellis describes Colin Thomas says the Daniel G. Williams, Swansea University how the National Trust is makers of a BBC Wales Aneurin Bevan a Paul Robeson: Sosialaeth, Dosbarth a Hunaniaeth coping with sea incursion landmark series should Aneurin Bevan and Paul Robeson: Socialism, Class and Identity at Freshwater West in avoid paying safe Simultaneous translation provided Pembrokeshire Coffee Shop Debate Entry free 66 Art of the world Tuesday 7 September, 6.30pm-7.30pm — Chapter Arts Centre, Cardiff Tessa Jackson reflects on Ifor Thomas, performance poet, declares Stieg Larsson is the Tolstoy of our age. science eight years at the helm of Artes Mundi Where is Wales Going Next? Entry free Cover story Thursday 23 September, 5.30pm — Ty Hywel, Cardiff Bay 48 Alzheimer break- 70 Sydney Harbour comes Lecture by Rt Hon Rhodri Morgan AM. In association with the Cymmrodorion. through in Cardiff to Glamorgan Julie Williams asks why Stephen Knight describes Creativity in Hard Times £65 (£60 IWA members) mental health remains the how a voluntary group of Conference to launch Cardiff Design Fortnight. Friday 1 October 2010 poor relation in medical enthusiasts are putting 10.00am to 3.30pm — Pierhead Building, Cardiff Bay research funding the pier pavilion back Keynote speaker: Peter Lord, Wales’s leading art historian into Penarth Cardiff Design Fortnight launch, Senedd, 4pm - 6pm 50 Wales needs a science museum History, Heritage and Urban Regeneration £45 (£40 IWA members) IWA Swansea Branch conference, Thursday 14 October 10.00am-5.00pm John Tucker says our National Waterfront Museum, Swansea scientific heritage should be collected and celebrated Regeneration in an Age of Austerity £95 (£90 IWA members) Wednesday -Thursday 20-21 October — St David’s Hall, Cardiff Keynote speakers: Jocelyn Davies AM, Deputy Minister for Housing and North east Wales Regeneration; Nick Bennett, Chief Executive, Community Housing Cymru; Professor Dave Adamson, Director, Centre for Regeneration Excellence, Wales; and Professor Kevin Morgan, Regeneration Institute, Cardiff University.