Internet History and Future
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City with Connectivity and Technology Science and Innovation Week Internet History and Future Dr. Lawrence Roberts Founder, Chairman, Anagran SLIDE 1 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Early Packet Switching History Redundancy Rand Report IEEE paper 0.85716 Paul Routing ARPANET Program Baran Economics0.7143 Rand IFIP paper ACM paper Donald Davies 0.57144 Topology NPL Len Kleinrock 0.42858 Queuing MIT Roberts RLE Report Larry Roberts Davies & & Marill Scantlebury 0.28572 MIT ARPA Protocol Book “Communication Nets” NPL J.C.R. Licklider - Intergalactic Network One Node 0.14286 TX-2-SDC 2 Node Exp IEEE papers Experiment INTERNET FJCC Paper ACM paper 3 nodes 13 20 38 SJCC Paper 0 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 SLIDE 2 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. The Beginning of the Internet and ARPANET became the Internet 1965 – MIT- 2 Computer Experiment Roberts designs packet structure Len Kleinrock – queuing theory 1967 – Roberts moved to ARPA Designs ARPANET 1969 – First 4 nodes installed UCLA, SRI, UCSB, University of Utah 1971 - Email created Main traffic soon 1972 – Bob Kahn joins Roberts at ARPA Roberts at MIT Computer 1973 – Roberts leaves and starts Telenet; first commercial packet carrier in the world 1974 – TCP design paper published by Bob Kahn and Vint Cerf 1983 – TCP/IP installed on ARPANET and required by DOD 1993 – Internet opened to commercial use SLIDE 3 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Original Internet Design - It Was Designed for Data File Transfer and Email main activities Constrained by high cost of memory Only Packet Destination Examined No Source Checks ARPANET 1971 No QoS No Security Best Effort Only Voice Considered Video thought not feasible Not much change in packet switching since then SLIDE 4 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Internet Early History 100,000 “Internet” Name first used- RFC 675 Roberts term at ARPA Kahn term at ARPA Cerf term at ARPA 10,000 SATNET - Satellite to UK Aloha-Packet Radio PacketRadioNET Spans US DNS 1,000 TCP/IP Design Hosts NCP TCP/IP Ethernet Traffic 100 EMAIL FTP Hosts or Traffic in bps/10 10 ICCC Demo X.25 – Virtual Circuit standard 1 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 SLIDE 5 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. ARPANET Expansion ARPANET July 1977 SLIDE 6 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. NAE Draper Award Laureates Feb. 20th, 2001 For creating the Internet Roberts Kahn Kleinrock Cerf SLIDE 7 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Prince of Asturias Award for Technical and Scientific Research, Oct 25, 2002 Roberts Kahn Cerf Berners-Lee SLIDE 8 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Prince of Asturias Award for Technical and Scientific Research, Oct 25, 2002 SLIDE 9 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Major Internet Contributions 1959-1964 - Kleinrock develops packet network theory proving that packets could be safely queued with modest buffers at network nodes 1965 – Roberts tests a two node packet network and proves telephone network inadequate for data, packet network needed 1967-1973 - Roberts at ARPA designs ARPANET, contracts parts out (routers, transmission lines, protocol, application software), growing network to 38 nodes and 50 computers 1973-1985 - Kahn at ARPA, manages ARPANET, converting to TCP/IP, and standardizing DoD (also world) on TCP/IP 1975-1983 - Cerf at ARPA designs TCP/IP and helps grow network 1990-1993- Berners-Lee designs hypertext browser (WWW) SLIDE 1 0 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Packet Switching – 1969 Cost Crossover Cost for data with circuit switching Cost for data with packet switching 60 65 70 75 80 From: “Data by the Packet,” IEEE Spectrum, Lawrence Roberts, Vol. 11, No. 2, February 1974, pp. 46-51. SLIDE 1 1 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Internet Traffic History: Growth = 6 Trillion in 40 years Internet Traffic Growth 100000 10000 World Internet Traffic PB/mo Commercial Doubling/year 1000 100 10 NSFNET 1 0.1 0.01 WWW PB/month 0.001 ARPANET 0.0001 0.00001 0.000001 0.0000001 TCP/IP 0.00000001 Commercial X.25 Service 0.000000001 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Internet Traffic has doubled every 11 months from 1970 to 2010 SLIDE 1 2 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Some Network Problem Persist Fairness - Broadband & Wireless Access 5% of users take 70%-80% of shared capacity Current network is unfair; Each flow gets equal capacity Multi-flow applications thus use unfair portion of capacity Multi-flow applications: P2P, Maps, content caching Quality of Experience Queuing adds delay, delay jitter and TCP stalls Web access much slower than needed Video stalls, Wireless voice breaks up Utilization Current network utilization is very low at network edge Security SLIDE 1 3 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Internet Technology – Finally Some Changes For 40 years network equipment still uses the same technology as ARPANET in 1969 - Queues Moore’s Law has allowed for major speed increases But network equipment still uses queues to control traffic overload Every packet is processed independently (at high cost) Average flow rate needed is achieved but flow rates are randomized Flow Rate Control (FRC) provides a new solution A Flow is a sequence of packets – file transfer, voice, video, etc. Flow Rate Control controls the rate of every flow without queues Maximum trunk capacity is held just below limit – thus no congestion Computation reduced: First packet examined, most are streamed out Cost, power, and size reduced 5:1 FSA Signaling protocol offers nearly ideal network service & greatly improved network security SLIDE 1 4 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Controlling Overload – Queues vs Flow Rate Control Current Packet Queuing Design of Network Equipment Queue/Discard NPU Queue/Discard NPU examines all packets 4 U 1500 Watts Today, network equipment uses packet queues which handle overload by delaying and discarding random packets - result is delay, delay jitter, and TCP stalls. New Flow Rate Control (FRC) Design of Network Equipment Rate Control Flows Switch Measure Utilization 1 U 300 Watts NPU NPU only looks at 7% of packets Anagran’s new approach uses FRC to intelligently manage overload, reduce delay, increase throughput, provide equalization, and support multiple levels of service. SLIDE 1 5 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Power & Cost is Lower for Flow vs. Packet Processing 1988 Crossover - Flow vs Packet Processing 1.E+09 Packet Processing 1.E+08 Flow Processing 1.E+07 1.E+06 1.E+05 x 10 eachfor line – 1.E+04Gbps per $ 1.E+03 5 1.E+02 Log scale 1.E+01 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1988 Flow processing depends more on memory cost than on computing. Memory cost has fallen faster than computing. Flow was too expensive before 1988. Flow processing is now it is 5 times less power and cost than packet processing and flow processing's advantage is continuing to increase. SLIDE 1 6 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Fixing Network Problem Areas Fairness TCP and queuing lead to equal capacity per flow & congestion Flow Rate Control (FRC) can provide Subscriber Equalization Equal Capacity for Equal Pay Supports multiple pay classes, each with increased average rate Quality of Service (QoS) Replace queues with Flow Rate Control (FRC) No delay added - Streaming video runs faster, no stalls No delay jitter - Good voice quality even on wireless No TCP stalls or resets - All flows run smoothly at controlled rate Utilization If current QoS is ok, Utilization can be increased substantiality SLIDE 1 7 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Internet Traffic Projection – Fairness Issue World Internet Traffic 1000000 Un-Equalized Multi-Flow Internet Traffic Multi-Flow Traffic 100000 World Landline Internet Traffic 10000 World Wireless Internet Traffic 1000 100 10 1 0.1 PB/month 0.01 0.001 Landline Wireless 0.0001 0.00001 0.000001 0.0000001 Internet Commercially Available 0.00000001 TCP 0.000000001 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 In 1999 Multi-Flow applications, starting with P2P, grew to consume up to 70% of the Internet capacity Subscriber Equalization should slowly return capacity to the normal user Currently Wireless Internet traffic is exploding and will soon equal landline traffic SLIDE 1 8 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Multi-Flow Traffic World Internet Traffic Impact of Multi-Flow Traffic 16,000 14,000 70% of Capacity, 5% of Users 12,000 10,000 8,000 PB/month 6,000 Multi-Flow 4,000 30% of Capacity, 95% of Users 2,000 Single-Flow - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Major problem today is that Internet allows unfairness Each flow is given equal capacity Multi-flow applications receive unfair fraction of capacity Generally 5% of users get 70% of shared capacity Subscriber Equality is needed (Get what you pay for) SLIDE 1 9 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Flow Rate Control Exists in the Anagran FR-1000 Transitioning from Packet to Flow Traffic Management Anagran Fast Flow TechnologyTM (patents pending) “Delay-less” Architecture … Zero output buffer queuing Bump in the Wire Packet processing bypassed on 95%+ of all packets or L3 Routing Product Specs … 40 Gbps throughput, 10 GE and 1 GE (10/100/1000) ports 1,500,000 simultaneous flows … up to 8,000 distinct flow classes or VLANs Supports 75,000 subscribers with rate caps, service classes, and subscriber equalization Redundant power, hot swappable modules, and HA via dual unit configuration 100% NetFlow available even at 40 Gbps SLIDE 2 0 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC. Issues in Education Networks Student Access, Priority and Equality Eliminate P2P overload with student equality Guarantee minimum and maximum total fraction of Internet Prohibit or limit certain external activity like social networking Faculty Access, Priority and Equality (perhaps by groups) Access Limitations to Servers by person or Group Assured Capacity for Selected Servers and Services Distance Learning Video Priority and Guarantees Utilization of LAN and WAN typically increased 100% Major Cost savings on Equipment and Communication SLIDE 2 1 | © 2010 ANAGRAN, INC.