E-ALERT | International Trade Controls
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Academia Militar
ACADEMIA MILITAR Análise da Intervenção Russa na Crimeia Autor: Aspirante de Cavalaria Tiago Filipe Simões Ramos Orientador: Professor Catedrático António José Telo Mestrado Integrado em Ciências Militares, na especialidade de Cavalaria Relatório Científico Final do Trabalho de Investigação Aplicada Lisboa, setembro de 2019 ACADEMIA MILITAR Análise da Intervenção Russa na Crimeia Autor: Aspirante de Cavalaria Tiago Filipe Simões Ramos Orientador: Professor Catedrático António José Telo Mestrado Integrado em Ciências Militares, na especialidade de Cavalaria Relatório Científico Final do Trabalho de Investigação Aplicada Lisboa, setembro de 2019 EPÍGRAFE “Submeter o inimigo sem combater é a excelência suprema.” Sun Tzu i DEDICATÓRIA À minha família. ii AGRADECIMENTOS Esta dissertação representa o culminar dos anos de trabalho, cujo produto não vem só do esforço individual, mas também do apoio de muitos outros, cuja menção é necessária para lhes dar o merecido mérito. Quero começar por agradecer à Academia Militar, instituição que me acolheu, sem a qual não estaria onde estou. Ao Curso Tenente General Bernardim Freire de Andrade, o meu curso de entrada, por todos os momentos partilhados, no “conhaque” e no “trabalho”, desde o início até ao fim da viagem. Ao curso Tenente General de Artilharia e Engenheiro Mor Luís Serrão Pimentel, por me ter acolhido a meio caminho e nunca me ter desenquadrado. Em ambos tenho amigos, sem os quais os longos anos tinham sido ainda mais longos. Ao meu diretor de curso, o Tenente-Coronel de Cavalaria Baltazar, pela dedicação, empenho e paciência na transmissão dos ensinamentos e pela integração no espírito da arma. Ao meu orientador, Professor Catedrático António Telo, cujos conhecimentos e orientação permitiram o desenvolvimento deste trabalho. -
The Valery Gerasimov Doctrine *S
The Valery Gerasimov Doctrine *S. M. Azharul Islam Introduction The "Valery Gerasimov Doctrine" is named after the Russian Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov. This doctrine consists of military, technological, informational, diplomatic, economic, cultural, and other concerned tactics to accomplish strategic goals. The principle puts more emphasis on the use of nonmilitary means to achieve the desired goals. However, this theory of modern warfare mentions that military standards are also crucial even in today's context. It has often been described as a distinct form of war, also termed Russia's version of hybrid warfare. This commentary will explain the notable "Valery Gerasimov Doctrine". The Valery Gerasimov Doctrine: A Brief Overview Army General Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of Russia's General Staff and First Deputy Defense Minister, published an article that made headlines. The article was titled "The Value of Science is in the Foresight: New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying out Combat Operations." This article proposed a new form of Russian warfare that blends conventional and unconventional warfare in a holistic approach to achieving strategic goals. Owing to the reaction of the Russian Federation to the crisis in Ukraine, this article gained traction in the professional and academic sphere. It is a part of the Russian Chief of the General Staff's duty to develop futuristic theories to prepare for warfare. The term 'foresight' has also been used in the title of the article to denote the process of transformation in the military sector to keep up with rapid future developments. Foresight has a direct link with the future of warfare in the Russian defence sphere. -
Russian Analytical Digest No 173: Russia and Regime Security
No. 173 12 October 2015 russian analytical digest www.css.ethz.ch/rad www.laender-analysen.de RUSSIA AND REGIME SECURITY ■■ANALYSIS From Crisis to Crisis: Russia’s Security Policy Under Putin 2 Aglaya Snetkov, Zurich ■■ANALYSIS Russia and the West: The Longer View 5 Keir Giles, London ■■ANALYSIS Putin’s Spies and Security Men: His Strongest Allies, His Greatest Weakness 8 Mark Galeotti, New York ■■ANALYSIS Analysis of the Signals and Assumptions Embedded in Russia’s Adjusted Security Doctrines 11 Katri Pynnöniemi, Helsinki ■■OPINION POLL Russian Attitudes on Russia’s Intervention in Syria 13 Institute for European, Research Centre Center for German Association for Russian, and Eurasian Studies Institute of History for East European Studies Security Studies East European Studies The George Washington University of Zurich University University of Bremen ETH Zurich RUSSIAN ANALYTICAL DIGEST No. 173, 12 October 2015 2 ANALYSIS From Crisis to Crisis: Russia’s Security Policy Under Putin Aglaya Snetkov, Zurich Abstract This article considers Russia’s more assertive foreign policy stance during the Ukraine crisis and now in terms of conducting airstrikes in Syria in support of the Assad regime. It suggests that these foreign policy-choices should be interpreted in light of questions of domestic security and how these foreign actions relate to the Putin regime’s wider political project for Russia. In this way, the regime’s previous concern about the taboo on the use of force abroad has gradually been eroded in conjunction with its shift to articulating a more patriotic and anti-Western political project following the popular protests against the regime in 2011/12. -
Getting Gerasimov Right Charles K
Getting Gerasimov Right Charles K. Bartles n 26 February 2013, chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov published “The Value of Science Is in the OForesight: New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying out Combat Operations” in Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kurier (VPK) (Military-Industrial Courier). In this article, Gerasimov lays out his perspective—and the prevalent view in (Photo courtesy of the Press Service of the Russian Defense Ministry) Russian security circles—of the recent past, present, Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov and expected future of warfare. This article was pub- lished about a year before the Maidan protests that set in motion the events leading to the eventual annex- Staff has far more authority than any flag grade officer ation of Crimea and Russian-sponsored insurrection in the U.S. military. He is responsible for long-term in eastern Ukraine.1 The chain of events that followed planning duties equivalent to both the U.S. Office the Maidan protests could in no way be foreseen by of the Secretary of Defense and the unified com- Gerasimov, but his article is often cited in the West batant commanders. In addition, he has oversight as “Gerasimov’s Doctrine” for the way Russian forces of strategic transportation equivalent to that of U.S. conducted its operations. Transportation Command, force doctrinal and capa- In this vein of Western thinking, Gerasimov’s ar- bilities development, and equipment procurement for ticle is often interpreted as proposing a new Russian all branches of the Ministry of Defense. He even has way of warfare that blends conventional and uncon- an inspector-general-like function for ensuring that ventional warfare with aspects of national power, General Staff standards and regulations are adhered to. -
Russia's Hybrid Warfare
Research Paper Research Division – NATO Defense College, Rome – No. 105 – November 2014 Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Waging War below the Radar of Traditional Collective Defence by H. Reisinger and A. Golts1 “You can’t modernize a large country with a small war” Karl Schlögel The Research Division (RD) of the NATO De- fense College provides NATO’s senior leaders with “Ukraine is not even a state!” Putin reportedly advised former US President sound and timely analyses and recommendations on current issues of particular concern for the Al- George W. Bush during the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest. In 2014 this liance. Papers produced by the Research Division perception became reality. Russian behaviour during the current Ukraine convey NATO’s positions to the wider audience of the international strategic community and con- crisis was based on the traditional Russian idea of a “sphere of influence” and tribute to strengthening the Transatlantic Link. a special responsibility or, stated more bluntly, the “right to interfere” with The RD’s civil and military researchers come from countries in its “near abroad”. This perspective is also implied by the equally a variety of disciplines and interests covering a 2 broad spectrum of security-related issues. They misleading term “post-Soviet space.” The successor states of the Soviet conduct research on topics which are of interest to Union are sovereign countries that have developed differently and therefore the political and military decision-making bodies of the Alliance and its member states. no longer have much in common. Some of them are members of the European Union and NATO, while others are desperately trying to achieve The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the this goal. -
Inside Russia's Intelligence Agencies
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN BRIEF POLICY RELATIONS ecfr.eu PUTIN’S HYDRA: INSIDE RUSSIA’S INTELLIGENCE SERVICES Mark Galeotti For his birthday in 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin was treated to an exhibition of faux Greek friezes showing SUMMARY him in the guise of Hercules. In one, he was slaying the • Russia’s intelligence agencies are engaged in an “hydra of sanctions”.1 active and aggressive campaign in support of the Kremlin’s wider geopolitical agenda. The image of the hydra – a voracious and vicious multi- headed beast, guided by a single mind, and which grows • As well as espionage, Moscow’s “special services” new heads as soon as one is lopped off – crops up frequently conduct active measures aimed at subverting in discussions of Russia’s intelligence and security services. and destabilising European governments, Murdered dissident Alexander Litvinenko and his co-author operations in support of Russian economic Yuri Felshtinsky wrote of the way “the old KGB, like some interests, and attacks on political enemies. multi-headed hydra, split into four new structures” after 1991.2 More recently, a British counterintelligence officer • Moscow has developed an array of overlapping described Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) as and competitive security and spy services. The a hydra because of the way that, for every plot foiled or aim is to encourage risk-taking and multiple operative expelled, more quickly appear. sources, but it also leads to turf wars and a tendency to play to Kremlin prejudices. The West finds itself in a new “hot peace” in which many consider Russia not just as an irritant or challenge, but • While much useful intelligence is collected, as an outright threat. -
Russia Intelligence
N°70 - January 31 2008 Published every two weeks / International Edition CONTENTS SPOTLIGHT P. 1-3 Politics & Government c Medvedev’s Last Battle Before Kremlin Debut SPOTLIGHT c Medvedev’s Last Battle The arrest of Semyon Mogilevich in Moscow on Jan. 23 is a considerable development on Russia’s cur- Before Kremlin Debut rent political landscape. His profile is altogether singular: linked to a crime gang known as “solntsevo” and PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS sought in the United States for money-laundering and fraud, Mogilevich lived an apparently peaceful exis- c Final Stretch for tence in Moscow in the renowned Rublyovka road residential neighborhood in which government figures « Operation Succession » and businessmen rub shoulders. In truth, however, he was involved in at least two types of business. One c Kirillov, Shestakov, was the sale of perfume and cosmetic goods through the firm Arbat Prestige, whose manager and leading Potekhin: the New St. “official” shareholder is Vladimir Nekrasov who was arrested at the same time as Mogilevich as the two left Petersburg Crew in Moscow a restaurant at which they had lunched. The charge that led to their incarceration was evading taxes worth DIPLOMACY around 1.5 million euros and involving companies linked to Arbat Prestige. c Balkans : Putin’s Gets His Revenge The other business to which Mogilevich’s name has been linked since at least 2003 concerns trading in P. 4-7 Business & Networks gas. As Russia Intelligence regularly reported in previous issues, Mogilevich was reportedly the driving force behind the creation of two commercial entities that played a leading role in gas relations between Russia, BEHIND THE SCENE Turkmenistan and Ukraine: EuralTransGaz first and then RosUkrEnergo later. -
International Crimes in Crimea
International Crimes in Crimea: An Assessment of Two and a Half Years of Russian Occupation SEPTEMBER 2016 Contents I. Introduction 6 A. Executive summary 6 B. The authors 7 C. Sources of information and methodology of documentation 7 II. Factual Background 8 A. A brief history of the Crimean Peninsula 8 B. Euromaidan 12 C. The invasion of Crimea 15 D. Two and a half years of occupation and the war in Donbas 23 III. Jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court 27 IV. Contextual elements of international crimes 28 A. War crimes 28 B. Crimes against humanity 34 V. Willful killing, murder and enforced disappearances 38 A. Overview 38 B. The law 38 C. Summary of the evidence 39 D. Documented cases 41 E. Analysis 45 F. Conclusion 45 VI. Torture and other forms of inhuman treatment 46 A. Overview 46 B. The law 46 C. Summary of the evidence 47 D. Documented cases of torture and other forms of inhuman treatment 50 E. Analysis 59 F. Conclusion 59 VII. Illegal detention 60 A. Overview 60 B. The law 60 C. Summary of the evidence 62 D. Documented cases of illegal detention 66 E. Analysis 87 F. Conclusion 87 VIII. Forced displacement 88 A. Overview 88 B. The law 88 C. Summary of evidence 90 D. Analysis 93 E. Conclusion 93 IX. Crimes against public, private and cultural property 94 A. Overview 94 B. The law 94 C. Summary of evidence 96 D. Documented cases 99 E. Analysis 110 F. Conclusion 110 X. Persecution and collective punishment 111 A. Overview 111 B. -
MH17 - Potential Suspects and Witnesses from the 53Rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade
MH17 - Potential Suspects and Witnesses from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade A bell¿ngcat Investigation Table of Contents Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Section One: The 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade ...................................................................................3 Section Two: Mobilization of the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade ................................................... 9 The 23-25 June 2014 Buk Convoy Vehicles ............................................................................................. 10 The 19-21 July 2014 Buk Convoy Vehicles .................................................................................................. 15 The 16 August 2014 Missile Transport ........................................................................................................ 17 Deployment of the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade in the Summer of 2014 ....................... 20 Section Three: Soldiers of the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade ...................................................... 23 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 23 2nd Battalion of the 53rd Brigade in 2013 .................................................................................................... 26 3rd Battalion of the -
The 'Gerasimov Doctrine' and Russian Non Linear
3/9/2017 The ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ and Russian Non-Linear War | In Moscow's Shadows The ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ and Russian Non Linear War A BELATED BUT HEARTFELT PS: When using the term ‘Gerasimov Doctrine,’ I was just going for a snappy title. I really didn’t expect (or want) it to become a more generally used term. Why? (a) Gerasimov didn’t invent this; if any CoGS deserves the ‘credit’ it would be his predecessor Makarov, but even so it is really an evolutionary, not revolutionary process; and (b) it’s not a doctrine, which is in the Russian lexicon a truly foundational set of beliefs as to what kinds of war the country will be fighting in the future and how it will win them — this is more an observation about a particular aspect of particular kinds of wars in the 21stC, there is certainly no expectation that this is the Russian way of war. So stop it, please! Call it nonlinear war (which I prefer), or hybrid war, or special war, Russia’s operations first in Crimea and then eastern Ukraine have demonstrated that Moscow is increasingly focusing on new forms of politically-focused operations in the future. In many ways this is an extension of what elsewhere I’ve called Russia’s ‘guerrilla geopolitics,’ an appreciation of the fact that in a world shaped by an international order the Kremlin finds increasingly irksome and facing powers and alliances with greater raw military, political and economic power, new tactics are needed which focus on the enemy’s weaknesses and avoid direct and overt confrontations. -
Russia Macro-Politics: Political Pragmatism Or, Economic Necessity
The National Projects December 2019 Population and GDP (2020E data) The long and winding road Population 146.8 GDP, Nominal, US$ bln $1,781 Plans are worthless. Planning is essential” GDP/Capita, US$ $12,132 Dwight D. Eisenhower GDP/Capita, PPP, US$ $27,147 Source: World Bank, World-o-Meters, MA The National Projects (NP) are at the core of the Russian government’s efforts to pull the economy out of the current slump, National Projects - Spending* to create sustainable diversified long-term growth and to improve Rub, Bln US$ Bln lifestyle conditions in Russia. It is the key element of President Putin’s Human Capital 5,729 $88 effort to establish his legacy. Health 1,726 $27 Education 785 $12 We are now initiating coverage of the National Projects strategy. We Demographics 3,105 $48 will provide regular detailed updates about the progress in each of Culture 114 $2 the major project sectors, focusing especially on the opportunities Quality of Life 9,887 $152 Safer Roads 4,780 $74 for foreign investors and on the mechanisms for them to take part. Housing 1,066 $16 ▪ What is it? A US$390 billion program of public spending, designed Ecology 4,041 $62 to stimulate investment, build infrastructure and improve health Economic Growth 10,109 $156 and well-being by 2024, i.e. the end of the current presidential Science 636 $10 Small Business Development 482 $7 term. Digital Economy 1,635 $25 ▪ Is this a return to Soviet-style planning? For some of the NPs, Labour productivity 52 $1 Export Support 957 $15 especially those involving infrastructure, it certainly looks like it. -
The Role of Germany in the Transnistria Conflict
Przegląd Strategiczny 2020, Issue 13 Bogdan KOSZEL DOI : 10.14746/ps.2020.1.7 Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7118-3057 THE ROLE OF GERMANY IN THE TRANSNISTRIA CONFLICT HISTORIC BACKGROUND The territory of Transnistria is a special enclave on the left bank of the Dniester River, with cultural and historical traditions markedly different than those in neighbor- ing Moldova. The Ottoman conquests, followed by the partitioning of Poland, made the Dniester a river marking the border between the Russian and Turkish empires. When Turkey grew weaker in the international arena and Russia grew stronger after its victory over Napoleon, the territory – known as Bessarabia – fell under Russian rule until 1918, to be embraced by Greater Romania after the collapse of tsarism (Lubicz- Miszewski, 2012: 121–122). After the Soviet Union was formally established in 1922, the Moscow government immediately began to question the legality of Bessarabia’s inclusion within Romania and never accepted this annexation. In 1924, the Moldovan Autonomous Socialist So- viet Republic (MASSR) was established on the left bank of the Dniester as an integral part of the Ukrainian Socialist Soviet Republic. Before World War II, Germany showed no interest in this region of Europe, believ- ing that this territory was a zone of influence of its ally, the Austro-Hungarian mon- archy, and then of the Soviet Union. In the interwar period, Romania was a member of the French system of eastern alliances (Little Entente) and Berlin, which supported Hungarian revisionist sentiments, held no esteem for Bucharest whatsoever. At the time of the Weimar Republic, Romania became interested in German capital and ob- taining a loan from the Wolff concern to develop their railroads, but Germany shunned any binding declarations (Koszel, 1987: 64).