NATO 2O / 2O2O TWENTY BOLD IDEAS TO REIMAGINE THE ALLIANCE AFTER THE 2020 US ELECTION NATO 2O/2O2O The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General Brent Scowcroft’s legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders. The Scowcroft Center’s Transatlantic Security Initiative brings together top policymakers, government and military officials, business leaders, and experts from Europe and North America to share insights, strengthen cooperation, and develop innovative approaches to the key challenges facing NATO and the transatlantic community. This publication was produced in partnership with NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division under the auspices of a project focused on revitalizing public support for the Alliance. NATO 2O / 2O2O TWENTY BOLD IDEAS TO REIMAGINE THE ALLIANCE AFTER THE 2020 US ELECTION Editor-in-Chief Christopher Skaluba Project and Editorial Director Conor Rodihan Research and Editorial Support Gabriela R. A. Doyle NATO 2O/2O2O Table of Contents 02 Foreword 56 Design a Digital Marshall Plan by Christopher Skaluba by The Hon. Ruben Gallego and The Hon. Vicky Hartzler 03 Modernize the Kit and the Message by H.E. Dame Karen Pierce DCMG 60 Build Resilience for an Era of Shocks 08 Build an Atlantic Pacific by Jim Townsend and Anca Agachi Partnership by James Hildebrand, Harry W.S. Lee, 66 Ramp Up on Russia Fumika Mizuno, Miyeon Oh, and by Amb. Alexander Vershbow Monica Michiko Sato 71 Christen a Carrier Strike Group 14 Digitalize the Enterprise by Michael John Williams by Jeffrey Reynolds and Jeffrey Lightfoot 75 Set its Sights on the High North by Jim Danoy and Marisol Maddox 19 Seek Membership for Mexico by Christopher Skaluba and 80 Rethink and Replace Two Percent Gabriela R. A. Doyle by Derek Chollet, Steven Keil, and Christopher Skaluba 26 Threaten Decisive Nuclear Retaliation 86 Game Out Decision Making by David Gompert and Hans Binnendijk by AM Sir Christopher Harper, KBE, RAF (Ret.) 31 Open a Bank by Max Bergmann and Siena Cicarelli 91 Put Itself Back in the Narrative by Bridget Corna and Livia Godaert 36 Disband the NATO Response Force by John R. Deni 96 End the Russian Veto on Georgian Accession 41 Listen to Women by Luke Coffey and Alexis Mrachek by Lisa A. Aronsson 101 Reimagine the Washington Treaty 46 Supersize Cyber by Damon Wilson and Will O’Brien by Safa Shahwan Edwards, William Loomis, and Simon Handler 106 Acknowledgments 51 Revitalize its Grand Strategy by Amb. Timo Koster and Ivanka Barzashka NATO 2O/2O2O Foreword More than two decades after NATO’s inspired decision to invite for- mer adversaries to join its ranks, the Alliance is in need of equally captivating ideas. The serious business of deterring adversaries and fighting this century’s wars has necessarily taken precedence over crafting a forward-looking vision. But developing that vision can’t wait any longer. Rather than getting mired in today’s debates about mundane issues like burden-sharing, NATO must build on its impres- sive track record of adaptivity, resilience, and achievement. The essays in this volume are intended to push the Alliance to think boldly and creatively in the service of recapturing the public’s imag- ination. They are, by design, provocative, occasionally in conflict, and sometimes impractical, at least in the near term. By prescrib- ing ideas that “NATO should” pursue—be it devising new initiatives, course-correcting current policies, or sunsetting troubled endeav- ors—the volume is an appeal for an Alliance that is more visionary, more capable, and more self-evidently valuable to the security of more people. To achieve that end, we’ve assembled a roster of 38 contributors who reflect a diversity that eludes the NATO commu- nity generally. We’ve enlisted nearly as many next-generation view- points as established ones, often in combination. This volume comes on the cusp of the 2020 US presidential elec- tion—a natural inflection point that will bear on NATO’s future role and purpose. As the next US administration tackles relentless secu- rity challenges ranging from great-power competition to climate change, whether and how NATO contributes to solutions—and how it communicates its effectiveness—will rightly affect its standing with publics in the United States and beyond. By adopting these ideas, NATO can innovate its forms and functions to better accomplish both imperatives. If there is one overarching argument in this vol- ume, it is this: As the complexity and pace of our world intensifies, policymaking and public diplomacy require originality, diversity, and audacity to achieve relevance in the 21st century. By Christopher Skaluba, director of the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. 2 ATLANTIC COUNCIL NATO 2O/2O2O Modernize the Kit and the Message by H.E. Dame Karen Pierce DCMG NATO will only remain successful over the next seventy years if it modernizes its capabilities, takes command of emerging technology, and harmonizes its strategic messaging. 3 ATLANTIC COUNCIL NATO 2O/2O2O Modernize the Kit and the Message Over the last few years NATO has been called many Russia. As the United Kingdom’s permanent represen- things, from obsolete, to brain-dead, to warmongering. tative to the United Nations at the time, I saw Russia So we must be doing something right. In truth, built on making light of a reckless and dangerous attack in the common values of individual liberty, democracy, which a British citizen died and many more were human rights, and the rule of law, NATO is an unpar- endangered. In leaving the Novichok agent in a public alleled defensive Alliance which has kept the Euro- place, Russia’s GRU played dice with the lives of British Atlantic region and beyond safe for more than seventy citizens. years. It has played a crucial role in bringing security and stability to Europe and its neighborhood, as its role After this attack, the UK and our allies ensured that in the Balkans showed. The importance of this can’t Russia paid a heavy price for breaking international be underestimated in this seventy-fifth anniversary of law, including through the expulsion of 153 intelligence the end of the Second World War. NATO continues to officers from NATO members and other European act as a platform for shared values and interests, now countries. But two years later, a banned chemical with partnerships across the world. The world is grow- weapon has again been used, this time against leading ing more dangerous. Technological advances have Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny. This is little the potential to transform warfare as significantly as short of gangsterism. The five permanent members of nuclear weapons did after WW2. We need to be clear the UN Security Council have a special duty to uphold with our publics what NATO does now and needs to do international law on the prohibited use of chemical in the future. Tellingly, a lot of Russian energy still goes weapons. into trying to undermine the North Atlantic Alliance every day. NATO is fit for the challenges of today. But Meanwhile China is also investing heavily in new capa- it will only remain successful over the next seventy bilities, global infrastructure, cyberspace, nuclear years if it continues to modernize its capabilities and its weapons, and long-range missiles that could reach message. NATO nations. China’s actions in the South China Sea and use of malicious cyber activity for criminal ends New Threats and Complex Challenges risk a wider security effect. The COVID-19 pandemic has further increased uncertainty and accentuated The threats NATO faces today are much more multi- trends. It has sharpened the focus on the challenge faceted than those faced by the Alliance when it was Beijing increasingly poses, and shown that China, as first established. Great power dynamics are making the well as Russia, is quite capable of spreading disinfor- world more unpredictable. Russia and China seem to mation to advance its own interests. see the current situation as a competition to re-set the rules of international affairs and their actions are get- NATO members want to use new innovations to bene- ting more dangerous in this respect. fit their citizens and to bolster open societies. But we need to be alive to the risk that state adversaries will Russia continues to pursue hybrid warfare and to utilize technological developments to undermine our develop new ways to destabilize Europe and the traditional strengths, and even against their own citi- Alliance with the United States, using everything from zens as we have seen with China’s use of artificial intel- disinformation to new missile systems. The Skripal poi- ligence in Xinjiang. And we cannot be confident that sonings in Salisbury, an English city, in 2018, under- we can prevent such technologies reaching malign scored the seriousness of the threat we face from non-state actors. 4 ATLANTIC COUNCIL NATO 2O/2O2O Modernize the kit and the message F-35B Lightning Jets embarked on HMS Queen Elizabeth for the first Carrier Sea Training. (UK Ministry of Defence) Keep on Modernizing The good news is that NATO has a track record of progress, including the agreement in London of a clear adapting fast to new priorities. Since Russia’s invasion roadmap for “Emerging and Disruptive Technologies,” of Ukraine in 2014, the Alliance has transformed. It has which describes the complex security environment established enhanced Forward Presence on its east- which allies will navigate together.