Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Eswatini
February 2018
Table of Contents
List of abbreviations 5
Preface 7
Executive Summary 9
1 Introduction and methodology 11 1.1 The objective of the Fiscal Space Analysis (FSA) 11 1.2 Methodology – priority expenditure 11 1.3 Methodology - the fiscal-space analysis 12 1.4 Data limitations 13 1.5 Organization of the FSA part 13
2 Eswatini’s macroeconomic and fiscal context 15 2.1 Longer-term national economic trends 15 2.1.1 Economic growth and recent developments 15 2.1.2 Structure and characteristics of the national economy 16 2.1.3 Socio-economic trends 17 2.2 Recent macroeconomic developments 18 2.2.1 International trade (and its consequences for the fiscal accounts) 19 2.2.2 Inflation and exchange rate 20 2.3 Recent fiscal performance 22 2.3.1 Government financial performance 22 2.3.2 Revenue performance 23 2.3.3 Current expenditure performance 24 2.3.4 Implications for priority expenditure 27
3 Priority expenditure trends and policy challenges 29 3.1 Priority-expenditure composition and recent evolution 29 3.1.1 Priority-expenditure components and fiscal space in recent years 29 3.1.2 Recent evolution of priority expenditure 31 3.2 Sectoral issues in priority expenditure 32 3.2.1 Education 32 3.2.2 Health 33 3.2.3 Social welfare 35
4 The base scenario 39 4.1 Base scenario and fiscal space “mapping” 39
5 Alternative scenarios 43 5.1 Options to increase fiscal space 43 5.2 Alternative scenarios and projections compared with the base scenario 44 5.2.1 Increasing tax and non-tax revenue 44 5.2.2 Decreasing non-priority expenditure 49 5.2.3 Improving efficiency of priority sector spending 50 5.2.4 Other options for enhancing fiscal space 51 5.3 Risks to fiscal space and their impact 53 5.3.1 Weak economic growth 53 5.3.2 Decrease in SACU transfers 54
2
Table of Contents
6 Conclusions 57
7 References 59
Appendix 1: Fiscal space projections 61
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 3
List of abbreviations
AGOA Africa Growth and Opportunity Act ARV Anti-retroviral CIT Corporate Income Tax CBS Central Bank of Eswatini CPI Consumer Price Index CMA Common Monetary Area DPMO Deputy Prime Minister’s Office DSW Departments of Social Welfare ECCDE Early Childhood Care and Development FAR Fiscal Adjustment Roadmap FPE Free Primary Education FSA Fiscal Space Analysis FY Financial Year GDP Gross Domestic Product IFC International Finance Corporation IMF International Monetary Fund MVAF Motor Vehicle Accident Fund NHSSP National Health Sector Strategic Plan NDS National Development Strategy NPF National Pension Fund OVC Orphaned and Vulnerable Children PIT Personal Income Tax SACU Southern African Customs Union SARB South African Reserve Bank SRA Eswatini Revenue Authority U5M Under 5 Mortality VAT Value Added Tax
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 5
Preface
The project team would like to thank the Representative and the staff of UNICEF Eswatini who provided valuable support to the project. We also extend our sincere appreciation to officials from the Eswatini Ministry of Finance, the Deputy Prime Minister’s Office and all the line ministries who participated in this process. We are indebted to the officials within these ministries who made themselves available at short notice to share their insights and experiences with the project team. We also take this opportunity to mention the stakeholders from the non-profit sector and the political parties, who gave of their time to share their thoughts with us. Finally, we express our gratitude to UNICEF ESARO for their support and help throughout this project.
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 7
Executive Summary
Large fiscal deficits in several recent years will put pressure on Eswatini’s ability to expand fiscal space for child-related priorities in the coming years. These deficits resulted from a combination of unstable revenues alongside expansionary fiscal policies and in particular an increasing wage bill. Revenues have been unstable due to Eswatini’s exposure to its larger neighbour South Africa. This exposure results from long-standing economic ties to South Africa; in particular Eswatini’s reliance on volatile Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenues and its currency’s (the Lilangeni) peg to the Rand. Continuing political and economic policy uncertainty in South Africa thus creates significant downside risk for the country. A large and expanding public wage bill in Eswatini limits its ability to respond to volatile revenues. While current debt levels are still relatively low, fiscal deficits need to be brought under control in the medium term.
This report defines (child-related) “priority” expenditures as that within the sectors of education, health and social welfare. Expenditures on education and health have been increasing consistently since FY2011/12, in line with broader expansionary fiscal policy over the period. Social welfare expenditure has been more volatile, largely due to instability in the Elderly Grant. Total priority expenditure per capita has declined significantly in US dollar terms from US$916 in FY2012/13 to US$604 in FY2016/17, although this reduction is almost exclusively the result of the substantial devaluation of the South African rand (and hence the Lilangeni) relative to the US dollar.
Education receives approximately 60% of priority expenditure, and is dominated by spending towards primary education. This spending has supported the implementation of the Free Primary Education Act of 2010, but also results from the high repetition and drop-out rates throughout primary grades. 70% of secondary school aged learners are still in primary school. These low throughput rates are a major impediment to the country’s growth. Throughput rates are impacted by a lack of qualified teachers, the limited public funding towards early childhood development, inadequate funding of secondary education, the impacts of high (though stabilising) rates of HIV and the lack of sufficient social welfare transfers to support learners to stay in school. More broadly, social welfare expenditure should be better targeted towards the poor through the introduction of effective means testing and case management, alongside expanded child grants.
Several scenarios have been modelled to estimate the fiscal capacity available to increase priority expenditure. The baseline scenario, which assumes the continuation of recent trends, suggests that priority expenditures in categories relevant for children would average 12.1 percent of GDP between the years FY17-18 to FY21-22. Over these same years, in real terms, total priority expenditures for children averages US$581.7 per child at FY16-17 prices and rates. Under the base-scenario assumptions the projected flows of priority expenditures for children produce a fiscal- space financing “gap” that would have to be covered with internal financing. In this scenario the required internal-financing flow averages 13.6 percent of GDP over the projection years.
One option through which fiscal space can be expanded is through increasing tax and non-tax revenue. Two scenarios are modelled in this regard. The first assumes an improvement in the administration of CIT (Corporate Income Tax) and PIT (Personal Income Tax), under the assumption that the Eswatini Revenue Authority (SRA) is effective in increasing tax compliance rates over the medium term. In addition, it assumes an increase priority expenditure through an increase in the elasticity of staff size within the respective priority sectors. The second assumes an increase in the fuel levy and the imposition of a higher VAT (Value Added Tax) rate on alcohol and tobacco products. The government of Eswatini has proposed tax revisions for these items in the
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 9
past. As the exact proposed revision rates were not available, it is assumed that the size of the fuel levy increases faster than GDP growth; with the rate of growth incrementally increasing to three times GDP by end-FY22. Simultaneously, the VAT rate on alcohol and tobacco products gradually increases to 18% over the projection period (from the standard rate of 14%). While it would likely not be appropriate to initiate significant tax increases in the current macro-economic environment, there could be room in the short to medium term for a number of targeted taxation efforts. Such increases were shown to have relatively small impacts on total government revenue, but could still be significant to support targeted investments in priority expenditure.
The next scenario assumes that fiscal space is bolstered through increased GDP growth as a result of enhanced sugar production due to normalisation of weather conditions, maximised crop yields and strong demand contributing to a strong performance in the sector. The scenario assumes an average growth rate of 4.2% over the projection period: with growth rising incrementally to a high of 5.0% in FY2021-22; relative to 2% in the baseline scenario. As the National Development Strategy (NDS) does not explicitly set out GDP growth targets, the Economic Recovery Strategy’s 5% target is therefore used.1 Additional revenues from increased GDP growth is allocated towards priority expenditure; resulting in average priority expenditure per child increasing by $22.52 to $602.67.
Another scenario considers redirecting non-priority expenditure to priority sectors, by way of reducing the proportion of funds expended on defence and police. Currently, the ministries of defence and police account for 6% and 5% of the budget respectively. This scenario assumes spending in these areas is halved over a 5 year period and that all the resultant savings are re- allocated to priority sectors. Relative to the base scenario, per capita priority expenditure is $44.82 higher and priority expenditure as a percentage of GDP 1 percentage point higher. This is a significant increase, highlighting the potential impact if existing budgets can be reallocated.
Finally, improving budget execution rates in priority sectors is another feasible option for expanding fiscal space. In 2016/17 government was able to execute 77% of their budget; with the execution rate for recurrent and non-recurrent expenditure being 85% and 50% respectively.2 As recurrent expenditures have a fairly high execution rate; this scenario focused on increasing non-recurrent expenditure. In particular it assumes that non-recurrent expenditure in priority sectors doubles within 5 years. In this case, the average spending on priority expenditure per child increases slightly by $12.42 relative to the base scenario. However as this amount is fully allocated to non-recurrent priority expenditure this is still a significant change; as total non-recurrent priority in this scenario increases by E222 million or 0.39% of GDP.
Less viable options to increase fiscal space include reducing external debt service through agreements with creditors, and increasing external debt disbursements. In general, non- concessional external debt should not be used to fund education and health expenditure. The basic reason is that the yields from education and health expenditure come only in the long term, beyond the terms typical of non-concessional external debt. For similar reasons, internal term debt should not be used to fund recurrent education and health expenditure.
Given Eswatini’s demographic profile and the high number of Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVC) in the country, it is critical that both the total amount allocated towards priority sectors is increased and the effectiveness of priority spending is enhanced. Therefore some combination of the above scenarios should be considered. While fiscal space is somewhat limited currently, effective investment in priority sectors is essential if the country is to move onto a stable longer term growth and development trajectory for the benefit of all its citizens.
1 (AFDB, 2012). 2 Data provided by UNICEF.
10 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
1 Introduction and methodology
1.1 The objective of the Fiscal Space Analysis (FSA)
This report analyses the Kingdom of Eswatini government’s recent and future financial capacity to carry out expenditure on which children depend for their human development and general welfare. This financial capacity is understood to be the “fiscal space” underlying such expenditure. The fiscal-space analysis has been carried out using a fiscal-projection model in Excel.
1.2 Methodology – priority expenditure
This report refers to expenditure categories regarded as beneficial to children as “priority” expenditure. For Eswatini, such priority expenditure categories for children are defined as three “institutional” expenditure categories: (i) education; (ii) health; and (iii) social welfare.
The composition of the government’s priority expenditures for children is, inevitably, somewhat arbitrary. Government expenditure classified as “priority” includes aspects that are unrelated, or only loosely related, to children’s welfare, such as higher education expenditure or expenditure on an old age grant. At the same time, some expenditure categories classified as non-priority are highly relevant to children, notably, for example, in the water and sanitation sector. This is especially important to bear in mind when considering possible scenarios to enhance priority expenditure by reducing non-priority expenditure. Future analyses of this kind may work with different definitions of priority expenditures for children. Even so, the methodological approach used in this study could work in the same way. That is, the methodological approach in itself is a core recommendation.
It is also important to bear in mind that fiscal space discussions concern only expenditure carried out by government within its budget. Government expenditure on education and health plainly constitutes the bulk of the resources dedicated to education and public health in Eswatini. Much of this expenditure is in categories that only the government carries out, or could carry out. Nevertheless, non-governmental expenditure in these sectors is also significant. Especially in the health and social welfare sectors, some important programmes are funded by private and NGO entities, some of which receive donor support. These would not be included in the government budget. The present focus, however, is expenditure in the priority sectors that flows through Eswatini’s fiscal accounts and hence are recorded “on budget.”3
A final note refers to one of the key measures used in the FSA in order to examine and compare both historical spending and the variation in priority expenditure under different scenarios, namely priority spending per child. This measure takes the total spending in the priority expenditure categories and divides this by the total number of children aged 18 or younger in Eswatini. However, the figures on per-child priority spending should be treated with caution since only a proportion of total expenditure at the institutional level benefits children directly.4
3 While it would be possible to carry out the kind of analysis this chapter describes using an enhanced set of accounts going beyond the official budget accounts, it may prove challenging to identify and incorporate all relevant expenditure programs and funding sources. 4 For instance, the old age grant, child grant and school feeding programme together constitute approximately 2.66% of GDP of which the old age grant is responsible for the majority of this amount. However, in the absence of reliable historical data that is disaggregated to this level, it is not possible to isolate data strictly focussed on children in all
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 11
1.3 Methodology - the fiscal-space analysis
To analyse fiscal space for priority expenditure, the methodology first sets from the “identity” that governs the relationship of priority spending with its underlying fiscal space.
This identity states that total expenditure (comprising current, non-interest, interest, and capital expenditure) less the sum of total revenue and external grants is equal to the overall deficit, which is in turn equal to the net flow of external and internal financing. If total expenditure is broken down into the three categories of (1) priority and (2) non-priority non-interest expenditure and (3) interest expenditure, this identity can be rearranged for any year as shown in the box.
The “below-the-line” accounts taken together constitute fiscal space for the priority-expenditure flow. For a retrospective analysis – that is, for analysis of fiscal performance in historical years – this structure can be applied directly to show how the below-the-line flows (the retrospective fiscal space) combined to finance the priority expenditure flows. Section 1.3 describes the historical quantitative analysis for Eswatini, for the years FY2012/13- Fiscal identity FY2016/17. Priority expenditure
= For the projection analysis, the accounting identity is applied in Tax and non-tax revenue a different way. For each projection year, the priority- + External grants expenditure flow is projected on the basis of programming - Non-priority expenditure assumptions, encompassing the various determinants of - External debt service recurrent and non-recurrent expenditure in the education, - Internal interest expenditure health, and social welfare categories. Similarly, the below-the- + External debt disbursements line accounts, except for the net internal financing flows, are + Net internal financing flows projected on the basis of programming assumptions. The total net internal financing flow for each year is then calculated residually, to ensure that the accounting identity is satisfied.
For any projection year, this net internal financing flow is the fiscal space “gap”, that is, the difference between the projected priority-expenditure flow and the projected financing requirements. If this gap is “too large,” then the programming assumptions, taken together, would be considered unfeasible. The criteria for “too large” include the limits on the government’s capacity to borrow in domestic financial markets and the implied increase in the government’s debt-GDP ratio. In general policy-makers want to keep net internal borrowing flow exceed 2 to 3 per cent of GDP in coming years, to avoid having the internal-debt burden rise as a percentage of GDP.
The projection exercise is formulated by applying various assumptions, together constituting a “scenario” to the historical data base. The relatively simplified, illustrative projection exercise applies scenarios to historical data (as discussed in Appendix 1). Each scenario comprises programming assumptions for the years FY2017-18 to FY2021-22, covering: • world economic conditions; • basic Eswatini macroeconomic variables; • merchandise exports and imports; • tax and non-tax revenue; • external grants to the government; • government expenditure in the priority and non-priority categories; and
instances. The projection exercise therefore takes all expenditure at an institutional level into account. It can be argued that even though all this expenditure is not directly focussed on children, it still has significant secondary benefits to them.
12 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
• external and internal debt.
For each scenario, some of the assumptions are set as simple numbers (growth rates, percentages of GDP, etc.). Many of the assumptions, however, are constructed from other assumptions. For example, the growth rates of real GDP and of the price level are numbers that the analyst chooses based on projections by either the World Bank or IMF. It is straightforward to combine these assumptions into an assumed growth rate for nominal GDP.
1.4 Data limitations
This analysis is based on budgetary data covering actual figures (budget outturn) for Fiscal Years (FY) 2012/13- 2016/17. The main data source is the Ministry of Finance. Additional data sources include the Central Bank of Eswatini (CBS), UNICEF, as well as the World Bank/IFC and the IMF. Despite a substantial data-collection effort, the quantitative analysis presented in the sections below is subjected to an important caveat. Namely, data on spending in the priority-expenditure categories is limited. Functional level breakdown of data was not available in more detail, in particular, associated expenditures classified under the economic budget classification could not be obtained. Thus, as noted before, for the modelling exercise, which looks into aspects such as increases in staff levels, priority expenditure categories were taken to be those of the main government institution responsible for the respective area. Since detailed data were not available for more detailed expenditure categories, it was not possible to produce more refined definitions and calculations for scenarios involving relevant sub-categories.
1.5 Organization of the FSA part
The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Chapter 2 summarizes Eswatini’s present macroeconomic and fiscal circumstances. It also analyses the budgetary process and the general efficiency of the fiscal framework. Chapter 3 looks at the recent evolution of priority expenditure flows in the categories of priority expenditure and outlines some specific challenges in the various areas relevant for expenditure on children. Chapters 4 and 5 discuss various options available to policy makers to enhance fiscal space with an illustrative projection exercise for the priority expenditure flows and fiscal space that would fund them for the years FY2017/18-FY2021/22. The exercise consists of a base scenario (Chapter 4), comprising a broad range of macroeconomic and fiscal policy assumptions, and various alternative scenarios (Chapter 5). Chapter 6 presents the main findings from the analysis. Further projection details are included in Appendix 1.
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 13
2 Eswatini’s macroeconomic and fiscal context
2.1 Longer-term national economic trends
2.1.1 Economic growth and recent developments Figure 2.1 below shows Eswatini’s average growth trend during the twenty five years leading up to 20155. As shown, Eswatini has experienced tepid growth, with real GDP growth gradually declining in each period, reaching negative levels between 2011 and 2015.
Figure 2.1 Real GDP growth in Eswatini, 1995-2015
Source: World Bank, WDI.
Average growth figures fell marginally between 1995 and 2000. This was the result of a combination of factors including investment diversion from Eswatini to South Africa – following South Africa’s economic freedom in 19946 – and contractions in the Swazi agricultural sector due to severe drought conditions. The subsequent period saw a modest recovery in growth, to an average nominal growth rate of 3.6% (and 1.5% in real terms) in 2005, supported by improved weather conditions, as well as improved performance in the manufacturing sector (textiles) following market access to the United States through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 20017. Although average growth rates remained unchanged in the following period, the long lasting effects of the global financial crisis, together with a gradual shift away from private-investment8 in Eswatini, lower average growth below 3% after 2010. Growth has continued to slow beyond 2015, due to the effects of El Nino, as well as the continued weak global economic landscape. The chart also shows a negative trend in real GDP growth; reflecting significant inflationary effects which give rise to a decline in purchasing power, as well as rising interest rates over the observed period. Inflationary trends and monetary policy are discussed further in Section 2.2.2.
5 Averages calculated for the 5 year period to each plotted year (average growth 1991 – 1995, etc.). 6 (IMF, 2003). 7 Eswatini began benefitting from the AGOA in 2001 when the Swazi Government voluntarily accepted the AGOA eligibility criteria (Tralac, 2015). 8 “ An important determinant of the slowdown in growth in the 1990s and 2000s has been lower investment, and a shift away from private investment-led growth.” From 2000 to 2009 public investment in percent of GDP rose from 5.7 percent to 10.4 percent, while private investment declined from 12.6 to 5.5 percent of GDP. The declining share of private investment resulted from the loss of attractiveness of Eswatini as a destination for investment, the end of some preferential trade agreements, and fierce competition from other textile producers. ( (IMF, 2010, p. Appendix II).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 15
The effects of the global financial crisis in 2008, as well as the global economic downturn have had considerable effects on Eswatini, mainly through the manufacturing industry which saw significant contractions over the period (-4.5% in 2009).9 Meanwhile, extreme weather conditions have had pronounced effects on the agricultural sector, which contracted by 11% in 2016.10
2.1.2 Structure and characteristics of the national economy As a percentage of GDP, the output of the services sector has gradually increased over time from 46% in 1990 to just over 50% in 2014. During this same period, the industrial sector’s share remained constant at just over 40%. The consistency of the industrial sector’s contribution to GDP might be under threat however with Eswatini losing its preferential access to the US market after its AGOA eligibility was revoked in 2015. Efforts towards tendering for readmission into AGOA have been made by the government, through strengthening reforms, in particular the passing of the Public Order Bill.11 Nevertheless, it is unlikely that readmission would be granted until such time that amendments to the Industrial Relations Act and the Terrorism (as additional preconditions for eligibility) have been effected.12
Meanwhile agricultural output as a percentage of GDP has declined significantly over the years, almost halving, to 6% by 2014. Eswatini’s agricultural economy is largely constituted of subsistence farming (70%) which contributed an estimated 11% of total agricultural output13. While agriculture contributes less than 10% of overall GDP, the effect of the recent drought conditions (reaching a peak in 2015 and 2016) is compounded by the high proportion of subsistence farmers – heightening the risk of food security in the country.
Figure 2.2 Sector contribution to GDP (%)
Source: World Bank, WDI.
The impact of the global economic downturn together with severe weather conditions have been pronounced for Eswatini as a small middle-income country. These and other economic factors, compounded by continued weak health and education outcomes, have meant that the country’s strategic vision of becoming First World country by 2022, is unlikely to be achieved.
9 (Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, 2009). 10 (World Bank, 2017). 11 The Public Order Bill was passed to replace the Public Order Act (1963), with amendments made to meet the recommendations and benchmarks specified by the US in a bid for qualification for AGOA. (Tralac, 2017). 12 The US highlighted the need for Eswatini to make amendments to the Industrial Relations Act, especially sections that relate to civil and criminal liability to union leader during protest actions as well as amendments to the Suppression of Terrorism Act and the Public Order Act. (Tralac, 2016). 13 (USDA, 2016).
16 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
2.1.3 Socio-economic trends Eswatini’s government recognises that in addition to the country’s weak macroeconomic landscape, socio-economic factors have further exacerbated the country’s growth performance.14 The macroeconomic environment has also made it difficult to achieve significant improvements in socio- economic outcomes – despite the exerted efforts by the government.
Eswatini is characterised by high rates of inequality, unemployment, HIV incidence, and poverty. Roughly 70% of Eswatini’s population falls within the labour force band (15 – 64 years of age), with 28.1% (41.7% using a broad definition) of this population classified as unemployed. This socio- economic profile significantly constrains the government’s ability to increase tax revenues. In particular, while technically 72% of the population are classified as employed, it is not necessarily the case that this entire employed population is accounted for from a tax perspective. A large majority of individuals fall within informal employment, working as subsistence farmers, and local tradesmen.
Eswatini has been faced by rising HIV prevalence rates over the years (far outstripping other diseases in terms of incidence)15. Official statistics estimate an adult HIV incidence rate of 26% (amongst 15 to 49 year olds). The combination of high unemployment and rising mortality rates amongst adults has contributed to rising child dependency rates, which is unsurprising given that that more than half of the population are classified as children16 (see Figure 2.3 below). Adding further pressure to the government, is the rising number of orphaned and vulnerable children (OVC), which was estimated as 20% of the child population in 2015.17
Figure 2.3 Population profile and growth
Source: The Kingdom of Eswatini. Note: Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).
The proportion of the population classified as poor stood at 63% in 2010, down from 69% a decade earlier.18 High levels of unemployment, increased dependency on the older population, as well as heightened food security risks in recent years, have jointly hindered progress towards poverty reduction, despite modest progress over the years. According to the World Bank, 4 out of 10 individuals live off less than US$1.90 a day, and 6 out of 10 less than US$3.10 a day.
14 (CSO, 2010, p. 1). 15 (Health, 2015, p. 7). 16 Using UNICEFS classification. 17 (Whiteside, et al., 2016). 18 (CSO, 2010, p. 8).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 17
Although a relatively small country, Eswatini’s topographical layout poses a major challenge in terms of distribution of and access to basic services in many parts of the country; with 76.5% of the population living in rural areas19. Moreover, limited access to quality health care and basic nutritious meals heightens public health challenges; while consistently low enrolment rates in secondary schools remain an issue for educational attainment and skills development.20
As highlighted above, the rising trend in unemployment and the considerable effects of HIV AIDS on young adults (particularly through rising mortality rates) have increased children dependency, while the increasing number of OVCs within the country is likely to require more resources from the government in the coming years. Additional resources would also be required if access to basic services in rural areas is improved.
2.2 Recent macroeconomic developments
Table 2.1 below provides a summary of Eswatini’s basic macroeconomic indicators for the fiscal years FY2012/13-FY2016/17.
Table 2.1 Selected macroeconomic indicators, FY12-13 0 FY16/17 (US$ millions)
FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17
Gross domestic product* 41,290.0 41,716.1 44,841.9 45,211.6 44,261.6
Per-capita:
Gross domestic product* 38,499.7 40,898.6 40,750.1 39,424.4 36,311.6
Non-government consumption** 28,926.6 29,346.6 29,261.1 29,373.5 29,596.7
Per cent of GDP: Gross fixed capital formation 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 6.1% Fiscal balance 4.0% 0.8% -1.3% -5.5% -13.2% Merchandise-trade balance -8.2% -2.0% 0.3% 0.7% -1.7%
Growth rate: Consumer prices (December) 6.6% 5.1% 4.8% 7.8% 6.0% Exchange rate (December) 20.8% 17.1% 2.8% 39.2% -16.1% Source: Ministry of Finance.
As shown in the table above, GDP per capita has declined since FY2013/14 – signifying an overall decline in productivity within the economy. This suggests that the country’s real economic growth performance has not been sufficient to support the average population growth rate of 1.4% (see Figure 2.3 above) over the last 10 years.
Notwithstanding global economic conditions and severe weather conditions, Eswatini’s economic performance has also been affected by its strong economic and historical association with South Africa – which has exposed it to a number of risks. Together with Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa, Eswatini falls under the Common Monetary Area (CMA). Established in 198621, this monetary union was established primarily with the view of complementing the free trade mechanism throughout the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). As such, each of these respective economies have a fixed currency peg to the South African Rand, making their currencies
19 (The Kingdom of Swaziland, 2015, p. 1). 20 (CSO, 2010) Net enrolment in senior secondary school (Forms 4 to 6) is less than 15%. (Ministry of Education and Training, 2015). 21 The CMA has its roots established in the Rand Monetary Area (RMA) 1974, which was later revised in 1986, to form what is now known as the CMA (IMF, 2007).
18 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
susceptible to South Africa’s exchange rate performance. The Rand has depreciated substantially against the dollar for a long period of time. As a result, the Swazi Lilangeni depreciated by 16% in FY2016/17 alone.
While Eswatini’s government has not explicitly set out a medium term growth target, considerable risks in South Africa are likely to weigh on the medium term outlook. In particular, rising political and economic policy uncertainty in South Africa is set to result investment outflows, placing further pressure on the rand. The World Bank and IMF each project Eswatini’s growth to average just under 2% between 2018 and 2022.
2.2.1 International trade (and its consequences for the fiscal accounts) Figure 2.4 below presents a breakdown of Eswatini’s trade profile in terms of origin of exports, and destination of imports. It clearly shows that South Africa remains Eswatini’s major trading partner, accounting for an average of 85% and 66% of imports and exports respectively. This is mainly due to the structural arrangement within SACU, in which South Africa makes the largest economic contribution to the union (both in terms of imports and exports). The union’s dependence on South Africa’s large economic contribution consequently places the customs pool at risk to fluctuations associated with South Africa’s growth performance.
So not only does South Africa’s economic performance affect Eswatini’s economic growth in general, it also has a direct impact on the government’s fiscal position. South Africa’s projected low growth outlook is set to substantially reduce the customs pool over the medium term. According to the current revenue sharing formula, given the size of its economy and the proportion of imports relative to the member countries, Eswatini consistently receives approximately 8 per cent of the revenue pool.
Figure 2.4 shows that Eswatini’s export growth has typically outpaced imports in recent years, supporting a modest adjustment from a trade deficit to surplus. Nevertheless, South Africa’s protracted low growth environment is likely to place some downward pressure on Eswatini’s export growth, while the Swazi government’s infrastructure development approach is likely to give rise to a strong demand of capital goods; placing pressure on imports. All of which would likely reverse recent improvements in the trade balance.
Figure 2.4 Trade profile (by source)
Source: ITC - Trade Map. Note: Where; ‘X’ represents Exports, ‘M’ represents Imports, and ‘ROW’ represents Rest of the World.
While Eswatini is considered a soft commodity exporter, its export profile is quite diverse. Receipts from sugar, Eswatini’s primary commodity export, contribute a small amount to total government
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 19
revenues. Trade thus has a limited impact on Eswatini’s fiscal accounts. This is particularly true when comparing it to a hard22 commodity exporter such as Nigeria, in which exports are highly concentrated in oil (70% of exports), and where oil-revenues contribute a significant amount to total government revenues (more than 60%). Thus, the impact of lower global commodity prices (hard and soft) has had a limited impact on Eswatini’s fiscal accounts relative to Nigeria – given its diverse trade composition.
2.2.2 Inflation and exchange rate Given the currency arrangement within the CMA, monetary policy is effectively guided by the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) policy. Figure 2.5 below presents inflationary trends within the CMA as well as the trend in Eswatini and South Africa’s key monetary policy rates. Inflationary trends over the last decade can be summarised in 3 phases: • Phase I: Effects from the global financial crisis saw inflation within the region rise to heightened levels last seen in the early 2000s; • Phase II: The period between 2010 and 2015 saw inflation peak at 9.6% in 2012, off the back of rising administered prices within the region. The initial oil price downturn in 2015 contributed to a moderation in inflation in the subsequent years; • Phase III: The low oil price environment continued to provide some reprieve to oil importers. Effects of lower fuel prices, and the associated translation into the transport component of the CPI basket lowered inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, rising food prices, off the back of severe drought conditions, offset the disinflationary effects from the transport component to overall CPI, giving rise to higher inflation.
The SARB’s monetary policy has been consistent with its objective of guiding and maintaining inflation within a 3 – 6% target band, and thus an interest rate hike cycle was instituted in Phase I. However, with the delicate balance of promoting economic growth – the SARB adopted a fairly accommodative monetary policy stance in Phase II, followed by a tightening cycle in Phase III.
Figure 2.5 Inflation and Central Bank Rates
Source: World Bank, WDI.
22 Classified as mined or extracted natural resources.
20 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
Generally speaking, Eswatini’s inflationary trend has been much higher than its peers within the CMA. This is unlike Lesotho, where inflation trends closer to South Africa, and often trends lower. Over and above high import inflation from South Africa, high administered prices23 relative to its peers, has been the main driver of this trend. Eswatini’s stubbornly high inflation has had a number of effects on its policy rate more recently. CMA countries (excluding SA) typically seek to maintain their policy rates at par, if not below the SARB’s, in order to limit capital outflows, Eswatini’s high inflation has in effect warranted the current positive interest rate differential against the SARB. This is the first time since 1999 that monetary policy rates have been placed higher than the SARB.
While there is a degree of flexibility, the policy direction ultimately follows from the SARB. This will remain the case for as long as the exchange rate is pegged and the high trade composition with South Africa remains – which gives rise to exchange rate and inflationary pressures. The SARB reduced rates by 25 basis points in July 2017, while the CBS maintained rates at 7.25% citing concerns around inflation. With the recent inflation reduction to 5.6% in September 2017, there may be a motivation for the CBS to execute a rate cut. Nevertheless, the delicate balance between growth and inflationary pressure is likely to see a continuation of an accommodative monetary policy over the medium term.
With considerable inflation risks out of South Africa (due to a weak exchange rate outlook over the medium term), it is unlikely that there will be a significant downward repo rate in the short term. As a result, consumption is likely to remain somewhat constrained, while the private sector may retain a bias towards investing in interest-bearing accounts as opposed to business expansion. This will have a direct effect on unemployment rates as businesses storing cash are unlikely to expand their employee numbers. Therefore the impact of South Africa’s monetary policy on Eswatini is substantial. On a longer term basis however, the IMF projects limited inflationary risks to South Africa and Eswatini (see Figure 2.6 below).
Figure 2.6 IMF Inflation forecast
Source: IMF.
23 Electricity, Public transport, Bread Indices.
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 21
2.3 Recent fiscal performance
2.3.1 Government financial performance Eswatini’s government finances have come under scrutiny in recent years, with the effects of the global financial crisis resulting in the country’s fiscal crisis in 2010.24 Despite a modest recovery in the government financial performance in recent years – following efforts to strengthen the country’s fiscal performance through the establishment of the Fiscal Adjustment Roadmap (FAR) in 2010 – the IMF has argued that the current expansionary policy has become unsustainable25.
Figure 2.8 below presents a summary of Eswatini’s government revenue and expenditure growth between FY2010/11 and FY2016/17. Revenue saw a sharp decline of 24.5% in FY2010/11, due to a collapse in SACU revenues as regional trade slowed. This decline coincided with only a minor decline in expenditure (of -1.6%) in the corresponding period, prompting the country’s fiscal crisis. This period gave rise to a significant increase in domestic debt, which rose from E0.40bn to E1.24bn between FY2009/10 and FY2010/11. With the exception of FY2012/13, where a windfall of SACU revenues gave rise to a significant increase in total government revenues, growth in expenditure has outpaced that of revenues over the years. This misalignment between revenue and expenditure growth has resulted in fiscal balance deteriorating each year (shown in Table 2.1 above).26
Figure 2.7 Government fiscal performance - FY2010.11 to FY2016/17 (as a % of GDP)
Source: Ministry of Finance.
24 (United Nations, 2012, p. 6). 25 (Placeholder1) (IMF, 2017). 26 (IMF, 2015, p. 8).
22 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
Figure 2.8 Growth in Government Expenditure and Revenue
Source: Ministry of Finance.
2.3.2 Revenue performance Eswatini’s revenue is mainly funded from Personal Income Tax (PIT), Company Income Tax (CIT), Value-Added Tax (VAT) and transfers from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). Figure 2.9 presents the composition of government revenues in the nine years leading to FY2016/17. Between FY2010/11 and FY2015/16 there was a positive trend in total government revenues (including grants) in nominal terms. However as a percentage of GDP government revenues have been declining. Revenues fell to 30.8% of GDP in FY2016/17, from 32.2% and 34.4% in FY2015/16 and FY2012/13 respectively largely due to declines in SACU transfers. Figure 2.9 also clearly shows the rise and fall of total government revenues due to the volatile nature of SACU transfers.
Figure 2.9 Composition of government revenues
Source: Ministry of Finance (historical), IMF (projection).
While the SACU is undoubtedly a beneficial arrangement for Eswatini, the reliance on these highly volatile flows poses a risk to overall fiscal stability. As highlighted earlier, South Africa’s medium- term economic outlook remains fairly negative. This creates a high level of risk to the size of the customs pool, as South African trade levels significantly exceed that of other SACU members. Eswatini receives just under 8% of the pool’s revenue, but makes a significantly lower contribution than this in terms of trade.27
27 (SACU, 2016).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 23
South Africa’s Ministry of Finance projects an increase in SACU payments28 from R39.4bn in FY2016/17 to R56bn in FY2017/18. All else equal Eswatini is thus likely to receive approximately R7.5bn29 up from R5.2bn in FY2016/17. Nevertheless, even with a projected rise in SACU revenues in the current fiscal year, the reliance on this single item will continue to impact the country’s overall fiscal standing: Eswatini will remain highly susceptible to shocks in periods of significantly lower SACU revenues. A more fiscally prudent approach should likely be adopted in the use of SACU revenues. Whereas additional SACU revenues (i.e. increased amounts years with higher revenues) are currently often allocated to capital projects,30 such revenues could be spent on child-focused sectors.
Beyond SACU transfers, CIT, PIT and VAT are the most significant internal tax instruments in Eswatini; the main rates of which are given in Table 2.2. The most recent figures show that PIT made up 22.8% of government revenues in FY2016/17, with VAT and CIT contributing 16.5% and 11.2% respectively. The relative contribution of each item has however fluctuated in each fiscal year due the instability of SACU transfers: In periods with relatively high31 SACU transfers these the sum of these three taxes account for approximately 35% of government revenue, but exceeds 50% in the periods with low32 SACU transfers. Nevertheless, each item has increased in nominal terms – specifically from FY2013/14, where possible efficiency gains may have been realised as a result of the establishment of the Eswatini Revenue Authority (SRA) in 2011.33
Table 2.2 Eswatini main tax rates Tax instrument Specifications Rate
Corporate income tax rate* Domestic and foreign companies 28%
Specified basic commodities 0% Value-Added Tax (VAT) rate* Other commodities 14%
Income < 60 000 Lilangeni 20%
Income > 60 000 < 80 000 Lilangeni 25% Personal income tax rate** Income > 80 000 < 100 000 Lilangeni 30%
Income > 100 000 Lilangeni 33% Source: (EY, 2014).
As it stands, Eswatini receives limited budgetary support in the form of grants. As a percentage of GDP, grants currently stand at 1.2%. Grants have typically been allocated to the capital budget and not the recurrent budget. Most of these grants are allocated to specific sectors, with the African Development Bank being one of the largest contributors.34
2.3.3 Current expenditure performance While government revenues have been relatively stable since 2012/13, expenditure has been rising rapidly. This is true not only in nominal terms, but relative to GDP as well – reflecting the
28 This constitutes roughly 60% of SACU revenue pool- as it includes the portion paid out by South Africa to Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS). 29 Swaziland’s proportion of the revenue pool is relatively constant (13.5% of SACU payments from South Africa to BLNS | 8% of total revenue pool). 30 As stated in the Q1 Budget Performance Report FY2017/18, construction activity is expected to increase due to higher SACU receipts expected for the year. (Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, 2017, p. 9). 31 For the following fiscal years: 2012/13, 2013/14, 2015/16. 32 In the following fiscal years: 2010/11, 2011/12, 2014/15, 2016/17. 33 (SRA, 2017). 34 (Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, 2017, p. 11).
24 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
government’s expansionary fiscal policy. Total government expenditure as a percentage of GDP doubled in about 6 years, from 24.8% in FY2010/11 to just over 40% in FY2016/17.
Government expenditure consists of recurrent expenditure (80%), and non-recurrent expenditure (20%), mainly capital. After Lesotho, Eswatini has the highest wage bill amongst the CMA countries,35 with roughly 40% of recurrent expenditure being allocated to public sector employee wages. Figure 2.10 shows the wage bill being fairly stable from 2010/11 to 2012/13 a sharp rise from 2013/14 onwards. This reflects the government policy from 2010 to 2013 to both freeze vacancies and implement no cost of living wage adjustments. In 2013 this policy was ended36 and the rise between 2013/14 and 2016/17 appears to largely reflect the above inflation salary adjustments to catch up after the period of no cost of living increases.37 Having compensation of employees as the largest cost component reduces government’s ability to effectively manoeuvre in case of significant decreases in revenues; often resulting in the misalignment between expenditure and revenue growth trends noted earlier. Government again instituted a policy of not offering cost of living adjustments in 2017, but maintaining such a policy could be difficult given significant union pressure.
Figure 2.10 also shows a rising trend in the proportion of grants, increasing from 11% of total expenditure in FY2010/11 to 20% in FY2016/17. This sharp rise results from the introduction of the Free Primary Education (FPE) Act in 2011, which provides grants, teaching and learning materials, teachers, infrastructure and meals to primary schools.
Figure 2.10 Composition of government expenditure
Source: Ministry of Finance (historical), IMF (projection).
The budget execution rate is also an area of concern, with spending outturn typically exceeding budgetary outlays. For example, expenditure exceeded outlays by E500m (2.4%) in FY2016/17 – largely due to the public sector salary review effective April 2016 38 – placing further pressure on the fiscal position.
Over and above the highlighted expenditure items, the sharp decline in SACU revenues in FY2016/17 added considerable strain on the government’s finances, resulting in the “accumulation of arrears to government suppliers” (Ministry of Finance, 2017, p. 7). Although the size of arrears is not clear, the risks associated with the accumulation of arrears are well document within the area of
35 (IMF, 2017, p. 53). 36 From interviews conducted with the Ministry of Public Service. 37 (IMF, 2017). 38 (Ministry of Finance, 2017, p. 15).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 25
public finance management. For one, accumulation of arrears undermine the true reflection of a government’s fiscal position, often masking the actual size of the deficit.39
While the government has noted the need to reduce its fiscal deficit, which stood at 9.9% in FY2016/17 from 5.5% in the previous year, it appears likely to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy over the medium term; particularly as the result of implementing a number of capital investment projects.40 The 2017/18 capital budget grew by 45% from the previous year – from E3.8bn to E5.6bn – and capital investments are budgeted to remain at this higher level in subsequent years.41
While Eswatini does not have a clearly formulated medium term fiscal policy framework, there has been consistent rhetoric espousing an expansionary fiscal policy across budgetary statements in recent years. The rising trend in public debt is thus likely to continue over the medium term. Public debt stock stood at just over 20% in FY2016/17, and while it is unlikely to breach the country’s self- imposed ceiling of 35%, the increasing borrowing trajectory is set to pose a risk to debt sustainability. However, it is important to note that Eswatini current debt levels and debt trajectory are way below international safe threshold levels for emerging markets, which the IMF puts at 70% of GDP. Eswatini’s exposure to South Africa, with its consistently depreciating currency and considerable downside risks over the medium term, introduces the risk of rising debt servicing cost – particularly for external debt. Moreover, the risk of further ratings downgrades in South Africa, and the associated risk of investment outflows, could result in higher Swazi interest repayment rates – adding pressure to domestic debt servicing costs. Moody’s, the credit ratings agency, recently issued Eswatini with a first-time issuer rating of B2 with a negative outlook, citing concerns over the country’s low growth, weak institutional governance and fiscal accounts.42
Figure 2.11 Total public debt stock (% of GDP)
Source: Ministry of Finance.
The options for effectively managing the risks associated with raising debt through domestic and external markets are also fairly limited. While there is the option of drawing down on the country’s reserves, this creates the risk of depleting international reserves while also having to maintain an import cover ratio of at least 3 months. Such a depletion would create a challenge to maintain the required reserves to manage its currency at par with the rand (as per the CMA requirements).
39 (IMF, 2014, p. 6). 40 (IMF, 2017). 41 (Ministry of Finance , 2017). 42 (Moody's, 2017).
26 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
The medium-term outlook is likely to pose two key risks to public debt and overall fiscal sustainability. Firstly, the poor economic outlook as well as the political instability in South Africa creates the risk of continuing weakening in the Lilangeni – which in turn would cause the cost of external debt to rise. Secondly, as government revenue does not seem to react significantly to economic growth, without direct intervention in the tax system through new instruments or improved efficiency, it will be difficult for Eswatini to address its annual fiscal deficit. The same is true if the government does not reign in continually growing government expenditure.
2.3.4 Implications for priority expenditure This preceding sections have clearly outlined a number of risks associated with Eswatini’s fiscal standing. The first, being the dependence on the volatile nature of SACU transfers. The second being the large wage bill, and the third being accumulation of arrears. While the government’s pursuit of an expansionary fiscal policy has perhaps been warranted in the recent economic conditions, a more sustainable fiscal strategy needs to be adopted. Unless the country is able to implement adequate reductions in expenditure in periods of lower SACU revenues, or increased savings in times of high revenues, the fiscal deficit and the debt levels will continue to increase.
While debt is unlikely to rise beyond the ceiling of 35% in the short term, rising debt and debt servicing costs is still likely limit the government’s ability to significantly strengthen its investments towards priority areas. Investments should thus be targeted towards not only the areas of greatest need, but also those areas that can help put the country on a path to higher economic growth. All three identified priority sectors (education, health and social welfare) are essential to the success of the country. Section 1 will thus aim to highlight such areas in priority sectors that would not only benefit citizens in the short term, but also the country as a whole in the longer term.
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 27
3 Priority expenditure trends and policy challenges
3.1 Priority-expenditure composition and recent evolution
3.1.1 Priority-expenditure components and fiscal space in recent years This section briefly contextualises priority spending within the broader fiscal environment in the country. To this end, Table 3.1 below summarises the trends in priority expenditure between FY2012/13 and FY2016/17 - expressed as a percentage of GDP. Priority expenditure has increased over this period, reaching 11.15% in FY2016/17, from just under 10% four years prior. This trend is consistent with the Eswatini Government Programme of Action (2014 -2018), which emphasises increased investment towards education and health as two of the eight focal areas of the plan,43 and highlights social welfare as an important part of the service delivery focal area.
Table 3.1 Priority expenditure for children and its fiscal space FY2012/13 to FY2016/17 (% of GDP) Fiscal year FY12/13 FY13/14 FY14/15 FY15/16 FY16/17
Per cent of GDP
Total priority expenditures for children 9.90% 10.03% 10.92% 10.71% 11.15%
Total education expenditure 6.04% 5.88% 6.38% 6.36% 6.74%
Total health expenditure 3.16% 3.08% 3.74% 3.70% 3.87%
Total social development expenditure 0.70% 1.07% 0.81% 0.64% 0.54%
Overall fiscal space 9.90% 10.03% 10.92% 10.71% 11.15% Tax and non-tax revenue (excl. external 34.43% 32.03% 33.01% 32.21% 30.85% grants) (+) External grants (+) 0.12% 0.49% 1.84% 0.74% 1.15% Total non-priority non-interest -19.69% -20.81% -24.18% -26.27% -32.84% expenditure (-) External-debt disbursements (+) 0.25% 0.54% 0.59% 0.48% 0.37%
External debt service (-) -1.02% -0.88% -0.76% -0.86% -1.21% Net internal financial flows (incl. -4.20% -1.36% 0.43% 4.40% 12.83% internal interest) (+)
Growth rates
Total priority non-interest expenditure: 14.08% 16.15% 2.53% 2.11% Contribution to the growth of total
priority expenditure: Tax and non-tax revenue (excl. external 16.61% 31.44% 6.30% -18.45% grants) (+) External grants (+) 4.40% 14.63% -9.71% 3.60% Total non-priority non-interest expenditure -37.81% -49.57% -30.18% -55.32% (-) External-debt disbursements (+) 3.63% 0.86% -0.79% -1.08%
43 (The Kingdom of Swaziland, 2013).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 29
Fiscal year FY12/13 FY13/14 FY14/15 FY15/16 FY16/17
Per cent of GDP
External debt service (-) 0.31% 0.68% -1.30% -3.00% Net internal financial flows (incl. internal -59.3% -224.6% -204.4% -74.10% interest) (+)
The education and health sectors account for a significant portion of the funds expended toward priority areas. The relative contribution of each has however increased only modestly over the period. Education expenditure increased from 6.04% in FY2012/13 to 6.74% in FY2016/17, while health expenditure increased 3.16% to 3.87% over the same period. However, expenditure in social welfare sector has declined in recent years, reaching 0.54% in FY2016/17, from a peak of 1.07% in FY2013/14. This reduction reflects the decrease in the expenditure on elderly grants over this period (as discussed below).
Table 3.1 above also provides a breakdown of how Eswatini’s priority expenditure is financed. The following is observed:
• Tax and non-tax revenues have been declining in recent years - falling to 30.8% of GDP in FY2016/17, from 32.2% and 34.4% in FY2015/16 and FY2012/13 respectively. Total government revenues have largely been supported by strong growth in income tax revenue, specifically between FY2013/14 and FY2016/17 (average of 19.1%), relative to SACU revenues (average growth of -6% over the corresponding period). However, more recently (FY2016/17) the decline in SACU revenue was much higher than growth in income tax revenues, decreasing by 24% which the later grew by 18%. This effectively underscores the considerable risk posed by large swings in SACU revenues: that even with an improvement in income tax revenues (due to collection efficiencies), sharp declines in SACU revenues are unlikely to be offset – not least without imposing significant increases in income tax compliance rates;
• External grants, which account for a small portion of the budget, increased significantly in the two years to FY2014/15, reaching 1.84% of GDP before falling to 0.74% in FY2015/16. However, FY2016/17 saw a moderate improvement to 1.15%.44
• Non-priority expenditure has been on a steady upward trend in the observed period – reiterating the government’s expansionary fiscal policy direction. Non-priority expenditure averaged roughly 20% of GDP in the first 4 years of the period, thereafter rising to over 30% in FY2016/17;
• External debt disbursements has been fairly low, rising to a high of 0.59% in FY2014/15, followed by steady declines, to 0.37% in FY2016/17. Debt service as a percentage of GDP saw a moderate improvement reaching a low of -0.76%, followed by a period of deterioration, to - 1.21% in FY2016/17;
• Lastly, net internal financial flows have seen a sharp increase over the years, from -4.20% in FY2012/13 to 12.83% in FY2016/17.
44 It should be noted that the estimates of external grants provided by the Ministry of Finance differ significantly from those provided by the Aid Coordination and Management Section (ACMS) in the Ministry of Economic Planning and Development; with the ACMS estimates being considerably higher. The ACMS collects data directly from donors, rather than through published accounts. The fiscal space model uses the Ministry of Finance data in this model to ensure consistency with published government accounts. Nonetheless this data should be interpreted with caution.
30 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
It is clear from the above that large swings in SACU revenues, rising expenditure due to the wage bill as well as prioritised infrastructure development projects have been the key contributors to the pressures facing Eswatini’s government finances. If anything, this may suggest an increasingly constraint fiscal space, in the absence of significant adjustment in expenditure. Nevertheless, Eswatini’s government should be commended – given the observed increase in priority expenditure in GDP terms.
3.1.2 Recent evolution of priority expenditure Figure 3.1 below provides a breakdown by sector of priority expenditure for FY11-12 to FY16-17, while Table 3.2 shows the expenditure growth rates in each sector over time. Education expenditure makes up the majority of the expenditure, remaining stable at around 60% across all the years. Health represents around a third of the total, but is more variable over time. Social protection is typically under 10% of the total, and is particularly variable over the period (as shown by the growth rates provided in Table 3.2) due to the tremendous instability of the Elderly / Aging Persons grant; as discussed in section 3.2.3 below.
Figure 3.1 Priority expenditure for children, relative shares of total, FY2011/12 - FY2016/17
Source: (Ministry of Finance , 2017).
Table 3.2 Growth rates within priority areas, FY 2011/12-2016/17 FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 Education -4.9% 8.4% 9.7% 15.6% 4.4% 3.9% Health -0.4% 25.9% 9.5% 29.6% 3.6% 2.4% Social Protection -7.1% -9.8% 72.9% -19.7% -16.9% -16.9% Source: (Ministry of Finance , 2017).
Despite the recent increases in priority spending and GDP, spending per child reflects a less positive picture. Table 3.3 shows a significant decline in priority sector spend per child in USD, from $915.56 in FY2012/13, to $603.91 in FY2016/17. The biggest cause of this change is the devaluation of the South African Rand (and hence the Lilangeni) relative to the dollar, although the increase in the child population (1.5% over the period) also had an impact.
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 31
Table 3.3 Per child spending in priority expenditure, US$, FY2012/13 - FY2016/17 US$ per child at prices and exchange FY12/13 FY13/14 FY14/15 FY15/16 FY16/17 rate of 2015 Total priority expenditures for $915.56 $833.10 $848.08 $641.35 $603.91 children Total education expenditure $558.39 $488.56 $495.12 $381.15 $365.08
Total health expenditure $292.66 $255.54 $290.29 $221.80 $209.41
Total social development expenditure[1] $64.51 $89.00 $62.67 $38.40 $29.43
3.2 Sectoral issues in priority expenditure
3.2.1 Education The Ministry of Education and Training receives the highest proportion of the government’s budget (16.2% in 2016/17) and represented 6.7% of GDP in 2016/17.45 Figure 3.2 shows that education expenditure has been fairly stable by programme, with primary education taking up almost half (roughly 45%) of total expenditures, followed by secondary education which comprises about a third of the total.
Figure 3.2 Recurrent education expenditure by programme, FY 2013/14-2017/18
Source: (Government of the Kingdom of Swaziland, 2017).
A key policy in the education sector was the introduction of the Free Primary Education (FPE) Act of 2010 and the associated FPE programme which provides grants, teaching and learning materials, teachers, infrastructure and meals to primary schools. However net primary school enrolment rates had already been increasing before the introduction of FPE, from 71 percent in 1999 to 95 in 2012.46. In more recent years, primary school enrolment rates have been relatively flat, increasing by less than 1% between 2011 and 2015 as the country approaches full primary enrolment.47
The country has however been less successful in enabling access to secondary education. Average net enrolment rates in 2015 were only 28% at lower secondary (Form 1 to 3) and 12% at
45 (Ministry of Finance , 2017). 46 (Unicef, 2015). 47 (Ministry of Education and Training, 2015).
32 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
senior secondary (Form 4 to 6) levels.48 Indeed, the greatest inefficiency in the education system appears to be the high level of repeats at primary level. In 2015, the primary school repetition rate was on average 15.7% across grades 1 to 7. This leads to a very high number of over-age learners in the system; by the end of Grade 7, 68% of learners are older than 13, and 29% are older than 16. More than 70 percent of the secondary aged learners are still in primary school. Less than 10% of learners as estimated to complete primary school without any repeats.
These high repetition and low throughput rates are affected by the inability of many learners to access Early Childhood Care and Development (ECCDE). The government provides little funding to ECCDE and hence ECCDE is offered through private and independent centres that receive little public regulation or support. As a result, reliable data on the level of ECCDE enrolments are hard to find, but it appears that less than half of learners attend any formal form of ECCDE. Effective investment at this early level could prevent learning backlogs from forming and act to increase throughput / completion rates to higher levels; this would eventually enable greater access to secondary and higher education. The Ministry of Education and Training has for some time contemplated the inclusion of Grade 0 in public schools in the country, as articulated in the Government Programme of Action (2013 to 2018),49 but this has not yet been implemented.
Personnel costs (E2.5 billion in 2017/18) represent more than 70% of education expenditure. In the fiscally constrained environment, this severely constrains the government to make critically required investments in educational infrastructure, teaching and learning materials and grants. This is particularly the case in secondary education where virtually all the government’s recurrent expenditures are directed towards personnel. Most secondary schools therefore charge fees, which further restricts access to poorer learners.
In the medium term, the government should therefore aim to increase access to ECCDE and improve the quality of primary school tuition, which would both help to increase throughput rates at primary level and hence reduce current inefficiencies. Improved throughput rates however will require a concurrent increase in expenditure at secondary level. These investments and inefficiency improvements are critically important given Eswatini’s demographics and its need to develop a more skilled workforce.
3.2.2 Health Eswatini’s long term national development strategy’s (“Vision 2022”) strategic health care objective is the universal health coverage, which is defined as “ensuring that all people have access to needed promotive, preventive, curative and rehabilitative health services, of sufficient quality to be effective, while ensuring that the use of these services does not expose the user to financial hardship”. In support of these goals the country has developed the National Health Sector Strategic Plan II (NHSSP II, 2014 – 2018), outlining the strategic approach to funding and implementing its health care vision.
The greatest challenge facing the country’s healthcare system is addressing its HIV/AIDS epidemic. Largely as a result of the epidemic, mortality rates increased from 1990 to 2005; but have been declining since 2005 due to the increased availability of anti-retroviral (ARV) drugs.50 Despite improvements, life expectancy at birth is still low compared to the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) average (47.9 vs 58.6 years in 2014); which again is heavily influenced by HIV/AIDS prevalence rates of 28.7% compared to the SSA average of 4.9%.
48 (Ministry of Education and Training, 2015). 49 (The Kingdom of Swaziland, 2013). 50 (Ministry of Health, 2015).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 33
Nonetheless some achievements have been made through healthcare investments. Both infant and under-5 mortality rates have been on the decline, with the Under 5 Mortality (U5M) recording the biggest drop from 104/1,000 in 2010 to 67/1,000 live births in 2014.51
Figure 3.3 shows that personnel costs have been increasing slowly as a percentage of the recurrent health expenditure, with a particularly large increase in FY2017/18. This increase appears to be the result of increases in both salary levels as well as increases in staff numbers to address capacity gaps across the system. As is the case for education, wage bill increases risk crowding out of other key areas when an expansionary fiscal policy might no longer be sustainable in the future. This seems particularly important in terms of investing in the capital structures required to achieve universal health coverage. Currently (in FY2017/18), only 15% of the budget is allocated towards capital expenditure. More than two thirds of this capital expenditure is financed from outside (i.e. non-government) sources; primarily through grants from the Taiwanese government and loans from the World Bank.
Eswatini’s government health expenditure in FY2015/16 is estimated at US$104 per capita; a significant decline from approximately US$130 a year earlier due to the severely weakened rand.52 Nonetheless this still exceeds the (somewhat crude) World Health Organisation target of US$86 and is close to the Sub-Saharan 2014 average of US$98 per capita.53
Figure 3.3 Recurrent health expenditure by type, FY 2013/14-2017/18 (E million)
Source: (Ministry of Finance, 2017).
Given the size of the HIV/AIDS challenge facing the country, procurement systems are particularly important. The government has slightly increased the proportion of spending towards drugs in recent years. ARVs have been ring-fenced within the budget (E261m in FY2016/17) to ensure that this area continues to receive the necessary priority. However, inefficiencies in the procurement of drugs reduce the potential impact of drug spending. Overall though, health inflation has been declining in recent years, which has been ascribed to the greater role played by government in the procurement of drugs. Some shortages of medicines have also been reported - in some cases due to delays encountered in the procurement process. The broader issue around the accumulation of
51 (Central Statistical Office and UNICEF, 2016). 52 Based on expenditure data provided by the Ministry of Finance. 53 ( World Health Organisation, 2014).
34 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
arrears to government suppliers (mentioned in Section 2) could pose significant risks to procurement of critical resources at reasonable prices, particularly in the Health sector. Longer term plans include the creation of a National Health Insurance Fund which would form part of the National Social Security Strategy,54 but progress towards designing, resourcing and implementing such a fund appears to be very limited at the time of writing.
3.2.3 Social welfare Eswatini is faced with significant levels of poverty: 63% of citizens live below the national poverty line and 70% of children are classified as poor. 71% of children in Eswatini are orphaned and vulnerable (OVC).55 Against this background an effective social welfare system is critically important.
The Deputy Prime Minister’s Office (DPMO) directs and manages the key social welfare grants in the country; primarily through the Department of Social Welfare (DSW). The DSW received almost 90% of the DPMO’s budget (E359m out of E405m) in FY2016/17.56 Of this amount the vast majority (96% in FY2016/17) is allocated towards Social Welfare grants. Two social grants dominate in this regard (see Figure 3.4 below): • The Aging Persons (Elderly) grant supplies a fixed amount per month to all persons over 60; this amounted to E171 million in FY2016/17. The allocation is expected to increase significantly from FY2017/18 onwards since the amount per person has been increased from E240 to E400 per month. The elderly grant currently is not subject to any enforced eligibility criteria / means testing. This implies that this (or other) grants could be better targeted towards those in the greatest need; • The Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVC) grant for secondary learners is an in-kind grant covering the secondary school fees (to an amount of E1 950 per learner), currently benefiting approximately 78 000 learners.57 The total OVC secondary grant has been fairly stable at around E150 million in recent years. However, this grant is not sufficient since it doesn’t cover the full cost of fees in many schools, and more importantly the other costs (transport, uniforms etc.) of attending school. This likely contributes to the high rates of secondary school drop-out discussed in section 3.2.1 above.
54 (The Kingdom of Swaziland, 2013). 55 ( World Health Organisation, 2014). 56 (Government of the Kingdom of Swaziland, 2017). 57 Information provided by the Department of Social Welfare.
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 35
Figure 3.4 Key social welfare grants over time, FY 2013/14-2017/18 (including projections)
Source: (Government of the Kingdom of Swaziland, 2017).
A number of other grants are also administrated by the DPMO, but these typically represent relatively insignificant amounts except when dealing with specific disaster (e.g. drought) related issues.
A donor funded OVC child grant pilot has also been underway in the country since 2016, which provides cash transfers to up to 12 000 children58; with the amount transferred varying between E100 and E200 depending on the age of the child. This pilot is said to have shown promising results, but is expected to expire in March 2018 without a plan for extending or expanding it.
There is a clear need for a more extensive social welfare safety net given the rates of poverty and OVCs in the country. A World Bank study found that the low level of benefits and delayed payments were the main causes of the limited impact of social welfare programmes in Eswatini; and hence recommended an increase in assistance of this kind.59 While the elderly grant does undoubtedly indirectly benefit many children, it is estimated that 55 percent of poor children do not live with an elderly person and hence do not benefit from this grant.60 The secondary school OVC grant is an in-kind grant which only benefits about 40% of poor children and is insufficient to meet the full costs of schooling, not to mention other learner needs.
An improved social welfare system should more directly target those with the greatest need as well as identify cases where it’s most likely to have a significant impact through alignment to other policies. For example, an extended child grant could target those in ECCDE which could, if combined with other interventions at this level, improve throughput rates in primary and secondary schools. A case management system is currently being developed for the DSW which could serve as a key input in (i) determining the appropriate welfare transfers, (ii) means testing benefits to the most needy and (iii) integrating welfare with other government interventions.
In addition to the social welfare programmes managed through the DPMO, there is also a range of social security programmes that fall under the Ministry of Labour and Social Security. These take the form of ring-fenced funds; such as the public sector National Pension Fund (NPF), the Motor
58 Based on figures provided the DSW; although there are some identification challenges to determine the exact number of beneficiaries. 59 (World Bank, 2012). 60 (Blank & Mistiaen, 2012).
36 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
Vehicle Accident Fund (MVAF) and the Phalala Medical Referral Fund. Such ring-fenced funds tend to accumulate either large surpluses (the MVAF) that cannot be redirected, or deficits (the NPF) for which government would eventually be liable. There have therefore been efforts to design a more integrated social protection system (potentially including DSW Social Welfare grants), as part of the National Social Security Strategy, but it appears that limited progress has yet been made in this regard.
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 37
4 The base scenario
The first part of this chapter discusses a multiannual projection in Excel of Eswatini’s fiscal space under a set of “base-scenario” assumptions. (Appendix 1 describes the base-scenario assumptions in detail.) The second part describes alternative scenarios and the consequences of the options they embody on fiscal space, as determined quantitatively by the projection exercise. While each option takes account of Eswatini’s specific circumstances, it is important to remember that the projection results are based on specified, quantitative programming assumptions. In no case should the results be regarded as forecasts.
4.1 Base scenario and fiscal space “mapping”
In presenting the base scenario, Appendix 1 describes the programming assumptions and characterises the projection results. The real-GDP growth rate (in Swazi Lilangeni) is assumed to be 2% per cent over the projection period as per the World Bank’s forecast. Most of the remaining programming assumptions are intended as “neutral”, non-controversial, base-line assumptions that would produce no significant changes in the fiscal structure as the real economy grows. The results of the base scenario provide a basis for comparison with alternative scenarios incorporating different assumptions.
Under the base scenario, priority expenditures in categories relevant for children averages 12.1 percent of GDP over the years FY17-18 to FY21-22. Over these same years, in real terms, total priority expenditures for children averages US$581.7 per child at FY16-17 prices and exchange rates. Under the base-scenario assumptions regarding tax and non-tax revenue, external grants, non-priority expenditure, and external- and internal-debt stocks and flows, the projected flows of priority expenditures for children produce a fiscal-space financing “gap” that would have to be covered with internal financing. Under these specific quantitative assumptions, the required internal-financing flow averages 13.6 percent of GDP over the projection years.
Table 4.1 Eswatini Key projection results for the base scenario FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- 17 18 19 20 21 22 Priority expenditure
Per cent of total expenditure 25.4 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3
Per cent of GDP 12.0 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.0 11.8 Per child in USD at 2016 exchange rate and $603.9 $640.2 $600.5 $577.7 $555.7 $534.2 prices Net internal financing gap (fiscal gap)
Per cent of total expenditure 29.2 30.1 30.2 29.9 29.0 26.7
Per cent of GDP 13.8 14.5 14.3 13.9 13.2 12.0
Fiscal Deficit (surplus/deficit)
Per cent of GDP -9.0 -7.8 -5.7 -3.8 -2.4 -1.6 Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 39
Table 4.2 Results for the other elements of the fiscal account Results Scenario 0
Average tax and non-tax revenue/GDP, FY17/18 -FY21/22 32.3%
Average priority expenditure/GDP, FY17/18 -FY21/22 12.1%
Average priority expenditure per child (USD at 2015 prices & exchange rate), 2017-2021 $581.7
Net internal debt flow/GDP, FY17/18 -FY21/22 13.6%
Total government debt/GDP, 2020 34.6%
Average fiscal deficit/GDP, FY17/18 -FY21/22 4.3% Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Figure 4.1 shows a fiscal-mapping chart for FY13-14 to FY21-22, with projections from the base scenario. All projections are shown as a percentage of GDP. In the “stacked-bar” presentation, funding sources are above and expenditure flows below the horizontal axis: in effect, the sum of everything above the horizontal axis effectively funds everything below. For each year, the sum of all flows above the horizontal axis is precisely equal to the sum of all flows below the horizontal axis. Stated differently, the tax and non-tax revenue, the external grants, and external-debt disbursements, shown above the horizontal axis, together fund the priority expenditure, the non- interest non-priority expenditure, the external-debt service, and the (negative) internal financing flow including internal interest. The net internal financing flows include the interest on the internal debt.
Figure 4.1 Fiscal space and its components over the historical and projection period in the base scenario (FY13-FY22)
Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
The projection exercise can be used to evaluate different policy approaches involving priority expenditure and its fiscal space. In general, if a scenario is proposed that involves an increase in the priority-expenditure flow relative to what is in the base scenario, the “fiscal gap” would presumably increase. The exercise would show an increase in the net internal financing flow to the government compared with the base scenario. On the other hand, if a scenario is proposed involving an enhancement through one or more elements of fiscal space, the exercise would show a reduction in the net internal financing flow to the government compared with the base scenario. Naturally, combined scenarios are possible, in which both the priority-expenditure and the fiscal- space flows are increased. The idea would be to determine the net consequence of the two changes. The exercise shows the multiannual internal financing flows for the whole projection
40 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
period, and accumulates these flows so that the exercise shows the government’s total debt at the end of the projection period.
Since these results are quantitative, they can be discussed in terms of their feasibility: Would the net internal financing flow be likely to exceed the capacity of internal financial markets? And would the government’s total debt stock rise too high too quickly as a percentage of GDP?
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 41
5 Alternative scenarios
The projection exercise is set up to carry out sensitivity analysis. The procedure consists of calculating projections based on alternative scenarios, which are set out in this chapter. The assumptions of each alternative scenario are kept the same as those of the base scenario except that one or two assumption lines are changed. Comparison of each alternative scenario with the base scenario would indicate the order-of-magnitude consequences for the fiscal accounts of the changed assumptions, given the exercise’s other assumptions.
Section 5.1 describes possible approaches to increase fiscal space. Section 5.2 then describes some illustrative alternative scenarios as well as how results compare with those of the base scenario. Finally Section 5.3 considers the potential impact of key risks facing fiscal space in the country through a number of alternative scenarios.
5.1 Options to increase fiscal space
Policy-makers have the following general options for enhancing fiscal space for priority expenditure: (1) increasing tax and non-tax revenue, and possibly earmarking some of this for priority expenditure; (2) increasing expenditure efficiency; (3) reducing non-priority expenditure; (4) reducing external debt service, presumably through agreements with creditors; (5) increasing external debt disbursements; and (6) increasing net internal borrowing flows.
Apart from government policy choices, changes in the macroeconomic context can affect fiscal space. For example, increased GDP growth would increase fiscal space by increasing tax revenue.
In general, evaluation of the alternative-scenario results suggests that the best policy approaches to securing sustained increases in fiscal space to support priority-expenditure flows appear to lie with improved tax administration. As explained below, the other approaches are likely, on the basis of tax increases and reducing non-priority expenditure, to face political obstacles and may be counterproductive in the medium term, since they might reduce GDP growth that powers revenue flows. Debt funding for priority expenditure is inherently undesirable, because the cost of the debt is likely to exceed the return on priority expenditure, at least until the long term. Finally, agreed reductions in external-debt service are unlikely to be feasible – the international debt-reduction programs of the 1990s and 2000s are unlikely to be repeated in coming years.
Other pathways to achieving improvements in fiscal space are possible as well, most notably in terms of improving allocative and cost-efficiency within priority expenditure. In all priority categories, achievement of development targets and objectives falls short of the original aims. It is plausible to assume that significant resources could be freed up through improving decision-making and management processes through the continuous use and analysis of performance information in conjunction with budgetary allocation information.
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 43
5.2 Alternative scenarios and projections compared with the base scenario
5.2.1 Increasing tax and non-tax revenue Enhanced CIT and PIT administration and increase priority expenditure The assumptions of Scenario 1 (summarised in Table 5.1 below) are the same as those for the base scenario, except that instead of CIT and PIT revenue growing at the same rate as nominal GDP, it gradually increases over time from growing at the same rate as nominal GDP in FY16-17 to growing 1.5 times by FY20-21. In addition to enhanced CIT and PIT collection, a simultaneous increase in priority expenditure is incorporated.
Table 5.1 Key assumptions for Scenario 1 Growth rates FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19 FY19-20 FY20-21 FY21-22
Real GDP 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Consumer price index 7.9% 5.7% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4%
Population growth 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Elasticity of education staff size 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 with respect to child population Elasticity of social protection 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 expenditure to child population Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Tax and non-tax revenues have largely been supported by strong growth in income tax revenue, specifically between FY2013/14 and FY2016/17, when income tax growth average of 19.1%, compared to the average growth of -6% of SACU revenues over the corresponding period. This growth performance is mainly ascribed to improved efficiencies following the formal establishment of the SRA in 2011, as opposed to significant increases in tax compliance rates. Going forward, it is expected that a number of measures, such as the introduction of a new income tax law, are likely to further enhance income tax revenues.61
The first “alternative” scenario, Scenario 1 suggests that these improvements in the tax system could bring about some increase in fiscal space. Tax compliance rates remain an area the SRA can capitalise on to enhance revenue collection. For instance, income tax compliance was estimated at 45% in 2014, with a 10% improvement target for each year between FY2015/16 and FY2017/18.62 While tax collection has already improved somewhat in recent years, increasing tax compliance rates will remain the SRA’s main priority over the medium term. This scenario assumes that the SRA is effective in these attempts and thereby increases overall tax revenue above the baseline levels.
This scenario also incorporates an increase priority expenditure through an increase in the elasticity of staff size within the respective priority sectors.63 This assumption is based around two arguments. Firstly, personnel costs are the biggest cost driver within each of these sectors, accounting for more than 40% of expenditure64. Secondly, as highlighted earlier, in addition to general efficiency issues within the priority sectors, there is a general shortage of staff within these sectors. For example, increasing the provision of ECCDE in the public system would require an increase in qualified teachers. Therefore, in order to maximise efficiencies, it may be necessary
61 (Ministry of Finance, 2016). 62 (SRA, 2015). 63 In this case elasticity refers to the rate at which staff size increases when GDP increases. In other words, when GDP increases, at what rate does staff size increase in response relative to the base scenario response. 64 Education (76.1%), Health (38.3%).
44 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
grow the workforce with adequately trained staff. Our scenario is therefore modelled off the assumption that elasticity in the Education and Social welfare expenditure will rise incrementally over the projection period, to reach a multiple of three times over the base case. However, one of the biggest challenges faced by the Ministry of Health has been the ‘shortage of positions and the inability to quickly fill vacancies’. 65 Given the shortage of adequately skill staff relative to the other two priority sectors, growth in health expenditure is therefore maintained in line with nominal GDP growth.
Table 5.2 provides a summary of the projection results using the assumptions above.
Table 5.2 Key projection results for Scenario 1 FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- 17 18 19 20 21 22 Priority expenditure
Per cent of total expenditure 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.7
Per cent of GDP 12.0 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.1 Per child in USD at 2016 exchange rate and $603.9 $640.8 $602.3 $581.4 $562.3 $545.0 prices Net internal financing gap (fiscal gap)
Per cent of total expenditure 29.2 29.9 29.7 28.9 27.3 24.1
Per cent of GDP 13.8 14.4 14.1 13.5 12.5 10.9
Fiscal Deficit (surplus/deficit)
Per cent of GDP -9.0 -7.8 -5.9 -4.3 -3.2 -3.0 Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
In this scenario, as evidenced in Table 5.3 below, priority expenditure rises marginally, to an average of 12.2%, compared with 12.1% under the base scenario. Meanwhile average priority expenditure per child increase by $6.19, to $586.43 when compared to the base scenario. The simultaneous increase in CIT and PIT would effectively offsets net internal debt flow by -0.5 when compared to the base scenario. In the instance that the elasticity for health expenditure rises at the same rate as that of Education and Social welfare (three times over the base scenario), average priority expenditure rises to 12.3% - put differently it rises by $8.40 per child as compared with $6.19.
Table 5.3 Enhanced CIT and PIT administration and increase priority expenditure Results Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Variation
Average tax revenue/GDP, FY2017-2021 32.3% 33.0% 0.6%
Average priority expenditure/GDP, FY2017-2021 12.1% 12.2% 0.1% Average priority expenditure per child (USD at 2016 prices $580.15 $586.34 $6.19 and exchange rate), FY2017-2021 Net internal debt flow/GDP, FY2017-2021 13.6% 13.1% -0.5% 34.6% Total government debt/GDP, FY2021 33.40% -1.2%
Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Increased fuel levy and VAT on alcohol and tobacco, increased priority expenditure Scenario 2 models the combination of an increase in the fuel levy, as well as an increase in the VAT rate on alcohol and tobacco products. The government of Eswatini has proposed tax revisions
65 (USAID, 2017).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 45
for these items in the past. Although exact revision rates considered were not disclosed, it is assumed that the proposed revisions where seen to be too high to be implemented at the time.66 The assumptions are put forward in Table 5.4 below.
Table 5.4 Key assumptions for Scenario 2 Growth rates FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19 FY19-20 FY20-21 FY21-22
Real GDP 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Consumer price index 7.9% 5.7% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4%
Population growth 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
VAT rate on alcohol and tobacco 14.0% 14.8% 15.6% 16.4% 17.2% 18.0% products
Elasticity as related to Fuel Levy 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0
Elasticity of education staff size 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 with respect to child population Elasticity of social protection 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 expenditure to child population Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Although fuel tax accounts for only around 5% of total revenues, it is an avenue through which fiscal space can be enhanced. The medium term outlook on the oil price suggests an upward trajectory, which would have implications for an oil importer such as Eswatini. The low oil price cycle added some reprieve to oil importers, and a higher oil price environment would have an inverse effect. An increase in the elasticity of fuel levy, rising incrementally to 3 times the current rate by end-FY22, is therefore modelled.
In scenario 2, it is assumed that the VAT rate on tobacco and alcohol increases from 14% in FY16- 17 to 18% in FY21-22. Eswatini currently applies a standard VAT rate of 14% across all goods (with exception for zero rated goods). While a break-down of VAT revenue per product is not available, it was assumed that alcohol and tobacco products contribute approximately 0.39% of VAT revenue67. Based on this assumption, VAT from alcohol and tobacco products constitutes approximately 0.6% of total tax revenue (in the base scenario, the alcohol and tobacco products VAT rate is assumed to remain at 14% and grow at the same rate as nominal GDP. Table 5.5 provides a summary of the projection results using the assumptions above.
Table 5.5 Key projection results for Scenario 2 FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- 17 18 19 20 21 22 Priority expenditure
Per cent of total expenditure 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.5
Per cent of GDP 12.0 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 Per child in USD at 2016 exchange rate and $603.9 $640.5 $601.5 $579.7 $559.2 $539.7 prices Net internal financing gap (fiscal gap)
Per cent of total expenditure 29.2 30.0 29.8 29.1 27.5 24.3
Per cent of GDP 13.8 14.5 14.1 13.6 12.6 10.9
66 (Ministry of Finance, 2017). 67 This was based on the CPI basket which gives a weight of 0.39% on alcohol and tobacco products.
46 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- 17 18 19 20 21 22 Fiscal Deficit (surplus/deficit)
Per cent of GDP -9.0 -7.8 -5.8 -4.2 -3.1 -2.9 Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Table 5.6 shows the differential outcomes between the base scenario and scenario 3. While fuel tax and VAT revenues cumulatively account for roughly 6% of total revenues, the above scenario suggests that increases in each item would result in a 0.5 percentage point increase in average tax revenues. 68 This projection exercise also points to a 0.1 percentage point increase in priority expenditure, as well as a $3.99 increase in the priority expenditure per child. Meanwhile net internal debt flows and total government debt would decline by 0.4 percentage points and 1.0 percentage points respectively.
Table 5.6 Increased fuel levy and increased priority expenditure Results Scenario 0 Scenario 2 Variation
Average tax revenue/GDP, FY2017-2021 32.3% 32.9% 0.5%
Average priority expenditure/GDP, FY2017-2021 12.1% 12.2% 0.1% Average priority expenditure per child (USD at 2016 prices $580.15 $584.13 $3.99 and exchange rate), FY2017-2021 Net internal debt flow/GDP, FY2017-2021 13.6% 13.2% -0.4%
Total government debt/GDP, FY2021 34.6% 33.60% -1.0% Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Increased GDP growth due to greater sugar activity; allocated to priority expenditure Scenario 3 puts forward another option related to enhancing tax and non-tax revenue. This scenario is modelled on the assumption of increased GDP growth as a result of enhanced sugar production due to normalisation of weather conditions, maximised crop yields, strong demand contributing to a strong performance in the sector. The model assumption incorporates an average growth rate of 4.2% over the projection period: with growth rising incrementally to a high of 5.0% in FY2021-22. Because Eswatini’s National Development Strategy (NDS) does not explicitly set out GDP growth targets over the term of the plan, the Economic Recovery Strategy’s 5% target is used.69 This scenario transfers additional funding realised from increased GDP growth towards priority expenditure.
Table 5.7 provides a summary of the projection results using the assumptions above, while Table 5.8 shows the projection results.
Table 5.7 Key assumptions for Scenario 3 Growth rates FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19 FY19-20 FY20-21 FY21-22
Real GDP 1.0% 1.9% 2.8% 3.7% 4.6% 5.5%
Consumer price index 7.9% 5.7% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4%
Population growth 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
68 It should be noted here that a perfectly inelastic demand is assumed; meaning that the VAT revenue estimation is probably overstated since it is assumed that consumption does not react to price increases. 69 (AFDB, 2012).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 47
Growth rates FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19 FY19-20 FY20-21 FY21-22 Elasticity of company-tax revenue with respect to nominal 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 GDP Elasticity of personal income tax revenue with respect to nominal 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 GDP Elasticity of education staff size 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.1 5.5 with respect to child population Elasticity of social protection 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.1 5.5 expenditure to child population Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Table 5.8 Key projection results for Scenario 3 FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- 17 18 19 20 21 22 Priority expenditure
Per cent of total expenditure 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.9
Per cent of GDP 12.0 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 Per child in USD at 2016 exchange rate and $603.9 $640.9 $606.4 $593.3 $586.2 $586.6 prices Net internal financing gap (fiscal gap)
Per cent of total expenditure 29.2 29.9 29.7 28.9 27.1 23.4
Per cent of GDP 13.8 14.5 14.1 13.4 12.3 10.4
Fiscal Deficit (surplus/deficit)
Per cent of GDP -9.0 -7.9 -5.8 -4.0 -2.6 -2.3 Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
The projection exercise factors in a considerable increase in the elasticity of priority expenditure to nominal GDP growth. The results table below (Table 5.9 ) shows that tax revenue would reach an average of 32.8 percent of GDP over the projection period, while the average spending on priority expenditure per child would increase by $22.52 relative to the base scenario. The net effect would be a moderate decline of 1.8 percent in net internal debt flow, when compared to the base scenario.
Table 5.9 Increased GDP growth due to greater sugar activity; allocated to priority expenditure Results Scenario 0 Scenario 3 Variation
Average tax revenue/GDP, FY2017-2021 32.3% 32.8% 0.4%
Average priority expenditure/GDP, FY2017-2021 12.1% 12.2% 0.1% Average priority expenditure per child (USD at 2016 prices $580.15 $602.67 $22.52 and exchange rate), FY2017-2021 Net internal debt flow/GDP, FY2017-2021 13.6% 13.0% -0.6%
Total government debt/GDP, FY2021 34.6% 32.76% -1.8% Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
48 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
5.2.2 Decreasing non-priority expenditure Reprioritisation of non-priority expenditure to priority expenditure A Performance Expenditure Review conducted by the World Bank, in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) in 2006 identified a number of key public expenditure challenges that needed to be addressed in the country.70 The first source is related to an oversized wage bill due to high salaries as well as a large civil service. Another source of public expenditure inefficiency results from the high proportion of spending allocated towards security and military rather than to social sectors. A third source stems from the weak and ineffective expenditure controls, which require strengthening of budget institutions. And lastly, capacity constrains at all levels of government further contribute to these inefficiencies.
This scenario examines the impact of the second issue mentioned: reallocation of spending from defence and police to priority sectors. Currently, ministries of defence and police account for 6% and 5% of the budget respectively. The scenario thus assumes that non-priority expenditure increases at a slower rate than priority expenditure and that eventually half of the current spending allocated to police and defence budgets are allocated to priority sectors. The elasticity of education, health and social development expenditure to nominal GDP growth is therefore rapidly increased, from 1.0 in FY16-17 to 18 in FY20-21 as opposed to staying at 1.0 over the period in the base scenario. In this scenario the elasticity of non-priority expenditure reduces over the period. Table 5.10 represents the results of this dynamic compared to the base scenario.
Table 5.10 Key assumptions for Scenario 4 Growth rates FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19 FY19-20 FY20-21 FY21-22
Real GDP 1.0% 1.9% 2.8% 3.7% 4.6% 5.5%
Consumer price index 7.9% 5.7% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4%
Population growth 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Elasticity of education staff size 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.7 11.1 18.0 with respect to child population Elasticity of health staff size with 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.7 11.1 18.0 respect to total population Elasticity of social protection 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.7 11.1 18.0 expenditure to child population Elasticity of non-priority recurrent 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 expenditure to nominal GDP growth Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
In this scenario, approximately all the hypothetical savings in the non-priority sectors have been transferred directly to the priority sectors. Consequently, per capita priority expenditure and priority expenditure as a percentage of GDP is higher than in the base scenario.
Table 5.11 Key projection results for Scenario 4 FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- 17 18 19 20 21 22 Priority expenditure
Per cent of total expenditure 25.4 26.2 27.3 28.8 31.1 32.2
Per cent of GDP 12.0 12.5 12.5 12.7 13.2 14.5
70 (World Bank, 2006).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 49
FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- 17 18 19 20 21 22 Per child in USD at 2016 exchange rate and $603.9 $643.4 $612.3 $605.1 $613.0 $651.0 prices Net internal financing gap (fiscal gap)
Per cent of total expenditure 29.2 29.1 27.8 26.0 23.8 26.9
Per cent of GDP 13.8 13.8 12.7 11.4 10.1 12.1
Fiscal Deficit (surplus/deficit)
Per cent of GDP -9.0 -8.4 -7.3 -6.6 -6.1 -2.5 Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
The table below presents Scenario 4’s output results against that of the baseline. The projection exercise points to a 1 percentage point increase in priority expenditure, as well as a $44.82 increase in the priority expenditure per child. This is a significant increase; and shows the large impact that is achievable if existing budgets can be reallocated.
Table 5.12 Reprioritisation of non-priority expenditure Results Scenario 0 Scenario 4 Variation
Average tax revenue/GDP, FY2017-2021 32.3% 32.3% 0.0%
Average priority expenditure/GDP, FY2017-2021 12.1% 13.1% 1.0% Average priority expenditure per child (USD at 2016 $580.15 $624.97 $44.82 prices and exchange rate), FY2017-2021 Net internal debt flow/GDP, FY2017-2021 13.6% 12.0% -1.6%
Total government debt/GDP, FY2021 34.6% 29.31% -5.2% Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
5.2.3 Improving efficiency of priority sector spending Increasing budget execution rates This scenario considers the effect of improving budget execution; a key public expenditure issue mentioned in the previous section. In 2016/17 government was able to execute 77% of their budget; with the execution rate for recurrent and non-recurrent expenditure being 85% and 50% respectively.71 As recurrent expenditures have a fairly high execution rate; focus is turned to increasing non-recurrent expenditure. In particular Scenario 5 assumes non-recurrent expenditure in priority sectors doubles. Table 5.13 presents a summary of the scenario assumptions, while Table 5.14 presents the scenario's projection results.
Table 5.13 Key assumptions for Scenario 5 FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- Growth rates 17 18 19 20 21 22 Real GDP 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Consumer price index 7.9% 5.7% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4%
Population growth 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Execution factor for non-recurrent expenditure 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
71 Data provided by UNICEF.
50 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
Table 5.14 Key projection results for Scenario 5 FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- 17 18 19 20 21 22 Priority expenditure
Per cent of total expenditure 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.7 27.1
Per cent of GDP 12.0 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.3 Per child in USD at 2016 exchange rate and $603.9 $644.2 $608.1 $588.8 $570.1 $551.6 prices Net internal financing gap (fiscal gap)
Per cent of total expenditure 29.2 30.2 30.4 30.3 29.5 27.5
Per cent of GDP 13.8 14.6 14.5 14.2 13.6 12.5
Fiscal Deficit (surplus/deficit)
Per cent of GDP -9.0 -7.7 -5.6 -3.6 -2.1 -1.3 Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Table 5.15 shows that tax revenue remains unchanged in this scenario, while the average spending on priority expenditure per child increases slightly by $12.42 relative to the base scenario. However as this amount is fully allocated to non-recurrent priority expenditure this is still a significant change; as total non-recurrent priority in this scenario increases by E222 million or 0.39% of GDP. The net effect would be a 0.3 percentage point increase in net internal debt flow, and a 0.6 percentage point increase in total government debt.
Table 5.15 Increase execution rate within priority sectors Results Scenario 0 Scenario 5 Variation
Average tax revenue/GDP, FY2017-2021 32.3% 32.3% 0.0%
Average priority expenditure/GDP, FY2017-2021 12.1% 12.4% 0.3% Average priority expenditure per child (USD at 2016 $580.15 $592.57 $12.42 prices and exchange rate), FY2017-2021 Net internal debt flow/GDP, FY2017-2021 13.6% 13.9% 0.3%
Total government debt/GDP, FY2021 34.6% 35.17% 0.6% Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
5.2.4 Other options for enhancing fiscal space Increasing external grants for budget support and projects While the option of increasing external grants is indeed a potential source through which fiscal space can be enhanced, this may be limited for Eswatini. There are two main factors which may undermine significant growth in grants. Firstly, global economic conditions have placed pressure on global donors’ revenue pool, resulting in reprioritisation of aid recipient criteria. While there are signs of improved global economic conditions going forward, this recovery is likely to be slow paced, thus limiting the prospect of burgeoning donor funds in the foreseeable future. Secondly, the country’s middle income status will continue to limit its access to a number of financial instruments.72
Reducing external-debt service through agreements with creditors As shown in Figure 5.1 below, Eswatini’s proportion of concessional debt as a percentage of total external debt has been on a steady upward trend since 2010. Concessional loans stood at 46% in
72 (Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, 2017).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 51
2015, from 22.2% in 2010. A large proportion of these funds have been directed to the infrastructure sector, as well as capacitation projects within areas of health, water and sanitation, and governance.73
Figure 5.1 Concessional debt as a percentage of total external debt
Source: World Bank.
Increasing external-debt disbursements In general, macroeconomic policy specialists concur that it is not advisable to use commercial external debt to fund education, health, or social-development expenditure. The reasoning is straightforward: eventual returns to education and health expenditure are realized over decades, but debt service on commercial external debt is generally due within a decade. Concessional debt, with multi-decade terms and near-zero interest rate, is more realistic for such purposes.
The previous section shows that the share of concessional debt to total external debt has been on an upward trend, although accounting for less than 50% of the total. As noted earlier, while the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio (which stood at just over 20% in FY2016/17) has been rising in recent years it is unlikely to breach the country’s self-imposed ceiling of 35%. Two arguments can be made in this regard. On the one hand this rising trend could place pressure on the government’s ability to meet upcoming maturities, which would add further strain on the government’s financial position. However it should be noted international benchmark on total debt currently stands at 55%74, thus suggesting that Eswatini effectively has some room to increase borrowing before it is considered unsustainable. Thus, in the instance that Eswatini maintains or increases its proportion of debt comprised of concessional debt, the option of further debt disbursements as a means to increase fiscal space becomes plausible.
Increasing net internal borrowing flows In the analytical structure of the projection exercise, net internal borrowing is calculated residually. In effect, it is the consequence of all the programming assumptions taken together. Evaluation of its feasibility therefore amounts to evaluation of the feasibility of all the programming assumptions taken together. Since internal borrowing is for shorter terms and has higher interest rates than external debt, it would be even more inappropriate to use domestic loans specifically to fund priority expenditure. Nevertheless, any fiscal-space financing gap would be covered with internal borrowing flows.
73 (Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, 2017). 74 (IMF, 2017b).
52 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
Decreasing illicit financial outflows The issue of illicit flows remains continues to pose a threat to many government’s finances. The figure below presents the trend in Eswatini’s financial outflows over a 10 year period. While flows have decreased significantly from a peak of close to $1.4 billion in 2007, it remains quite sizeable relative to GDP: 35% of GDP in 2013.
The literature on illicit financial outflows is quite broad, and while there are a number of ways that countries can be susceptible to the proliferation of illicit funds is through transfer pricing75. While this process is legal, different corporate tax regimes between countries (or corporates) leaves room for taxable income to be manipulated – thus reducing collectable income for the country (corporate) on the other end of the spectrum (Adams and Adams, 2016).
Figure 5.2 Illicit Financial Outflows (USD millions)
Source: (Global Financial Integrity, 2015).
5.3 Risks to fiscal space and their impact
5.3.1 Weak economic growth While global growth is off the back foot, with advanced economies expected to experience higher growth over the medium term, this scenario is based on the risk of a protracted low growth environment in South Africa. This is likely to affect Eswatini negatively, given its strong economic association with South Africa.
In the base scenario, real GDP growth is assumed to average 2 per cent between FY17/18 and FY 21/22. In this scenario, Scenario 5, it is assumed that real GDP growth is negative; averaging -1 per cent per year over the period. Table 5.16 provides a summary of the projection results using the assumptions above, while table 5.17Error! Reference source not found. shows the projection results.
Table 5.16 Key assumptions for Scenario 5 FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- Growth rates 17 18 19 20 21 22 Real GDP 1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0%
75 Transfer pricing is defined as the “process by which related entities set up the prices at which they transfer goods and services between each other.” (Adams and Adams, 2016, p. ii).
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 53
Consumer price index 7.9% 5.7% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4%
Population growth 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Table 5.17 Key projection results for Scenario 5 FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- 17 18 19 20 21 22 Priority expenditure
Per cent of total expenditure 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.8
Per cent of GDP 12.0 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 Per child in USD at 2016 exchange rate and $603.9 $628.7 $579.2 $547.3 $517.3 $488.6 prices Net internal financing gap (fiscal gap)
Per cent of total expenditure 29.2 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.0 27.0
Per cent of GDP 13.8 14.6 14.5 14.2 13.7 12.7
Fiscal Deficit (surplus/deficit)
Per cent of GDP -9.0 -8.4 -6.8 -5.3 -4.1 -3.6 Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Table 5.18, shows that while revenue and priority expenditure as a percentage of GDP increases slightly between the base and alternative scenarios, in absolute terms, there is a significant drop in priority expenditure. Average priority expenditure per child is nearly 10 per cent lower in the alternative scenario.
Table 5.18 Weak economic growth Results Scenario 0 Scenario 5 Variation
Average tax revenue/GDP, FY2017-2021 32.3% 33.3% 1.0%
Average priority expenditure/GDP, FY2017-2021 12.1% 12.6% 0.5% Average priority expenditure per child (USD at 2016 prices $580.15 $552.22 ($27.92) and exchange rate), FY2017-2021 Net internal debt flow/GDP, FY2017-2021 13.6% 13.9% 0.3%
Total government debt/GDP, FY2021 34.6% 35.25% 0.7% Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
5.3.2 Decrease in SACU transfers As highlighted Eswatini depends on SACU in terms of trade and in terms of its fiscal situation. This scenario seeks to model the impact of a decrease in SACU revenues would result in for the country, given that it accounts for approximately 40% of total government revenues.
In the base scenario, it is assumed that Eswatini’s SACU revenue grows at the rate predicted by the SACU secretariat; approximately 0.3 per cent per annum in nominal terms. Admittedly, this is not significant growth and will lead to decreases in the contribution of SACU revenue as a percentage of total government revenue in Eswatini. Nevertheless, in light of Eswatini’s reliance on this revenue and its historical volatility, it is perhaps important to illustrate the effects of slower than expected growth in SACU revenue over the period on Eswatini’s borrowing requirement. Error! Reference source not found. provides a summary of the projection results when using the assumptions in table 5.19.
54 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
Table 5.19 Key assumptions for Scenario 6 Growth rates FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19 FY19-20 FY20-21 FY21-22
Real GDP 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Consumer price index 7.9% 5.7% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4%
Population growth 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
SACU transfer growth rate 0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Table 5.20 Key projection results for Scenario 6 FY16- FY17- FY18- FY19- FY20- FY21- 17 18 19 20 21 22 Priority expenditure
Per cent of total expenditure 25.4 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3
Per cent of GDP 12.0 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.0 11.8 Per child in USD at 2016 exchange rate and $603.9 $640.2 $600.5 $577.7 $555.7 $534.2 prices Net internal financing gap (fiscal gap)
Per cent of total expenditure 29.2 30.2 30.5 30.3 29.5 27.4
Per cent of GDP 13.8 14.6 14.4 14.1 13.5 12.3
Fiscal Deficit (surplus/deficit)
Per cent of GDP -9.0 -7.7 -5.5 -3.6 -2.1 -1.3 Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Scenario 6 is similar to the base scenario in all of its assumptions, except that it assumes that the SACU transfer’s nominal growth rate averages -0.2 per cent over the period. Government debt increases by 0.4% by 2021 in this case.
Table 5.21 Decrease in SACU transfers Results Scenario 0 Scenario 6 Variation
Average tax revenue/GDP, FY2017-2021 32.3% 32.2% -0.2%
SACU transfer/GDP, FY2016–2021 10.6% 10.9% 0.3%
Average priority expenditure/GDP, FY2017-2021 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% Average priority expenditure per child (USD at 2016 prices $580.15 $581.65 $1.51 and exchange rate), FY2017-2021 Net internal debt flow/GDP, FY2017-2021 13.6% 13.8% 0.2%
Total government debt/GDP, FY2021 34.6% 35.08% 0.5% Source: Estimates and calculations from the projection workbook SDFS.xlsm.
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 55
6 Conclusions
This paper’s fundamental recommendation is that, in support of its advocacy on behalf of expenditure beneficial for children, UNICEF should continually formulate quantitative projections, and make use of these in its dialogue with the Eswatini government and other stakeholders. These projections should not only cover future expenditure needs in education, health, social development and other sectors relevant for children, but should also encompass the main components of the “fiscal space” that provides the funding for such expenditure. Quantitative projections of this kind should assist UNICEF to engage in more effective dialogue.
The analysis this report describes is intended to be essentially illustrative, to show how the methodology it recommends can be used to address the relevant policy issues. But certain tentative conclusions regarding the substantive issues do emerge, including the following: 1. Given Eswatini’s demographic profile and the high number of Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVC) in the country, it is critical that both the total amount allocated towards priority sectors is increased and the effectiveness of priority spending is enhanced. Effective investment at this level is essential if the country is to move onto a longer term growth and development trajectory; 2. Throughput rates in the primary education system are currently very low, with the effect that 70% of secondary school aged learners in the country are still in primary school. Most drop-out before reaching secondary schools. If these throughput rates could be improved, teaching capacity could be re-allocated towards the secondary school system, which currently receives limited resources and is unaffordable for many families. Improving throughput rates would likely require meaningful policy initiatives such as the introduction of government funded Early Childhood Education and a strengthened social welfare system; 3. Increases in social welfare transfers, targeted towards children, would not only support education (and health) outcomes in the country, but also directly benefit those facing the most extreme levels of poverty. The current OVC secondary schooling grant doesn’t support the full cost of secondary schooling, and only supports approximately 40% of the school aged population. A more comprehensive child grant is proposed – perhaps an expanded version of the current World Bank funded pilot programme – the cost of which can be partially reduced if all social welfare payments (in particularly the Elderly Grant) could be more effectively directly towards the most needy through means testing; 4. Naturally, such investments in priority expenditure would need to be sustainably funded through increased tax revenue. Income tax grew at an average of 19.1% over the review period, compared to average growth of -6% for SACU revenues over the corresponding period. This growth performance is mainly ascribed to improved efficiencies following the formal establishment of the SRA in 2011, rather than significant increases in tax compliance rates. Going forward, it is expected that a number of measures, such as the introduction of a new income tax law, are likely to further enhance income tax revenues; 5. While it would likely not be appropriate to initiate significant tax increases in the current macro- economic environment, there could be room in the short to medium term for a number of targeted taxation efforts. The report modelled the impact of increasing the fuel levy or the VAT rate on alcohol and tobacco. Such increases were shown to have relatively small impacts on total government revenue, but could still be significant to support targeted investments in priority expenditure; 6. Over the past five years, the SACU transfer revenue item has constituted approximately 52% of Eswatini’s total revenue. Besides the fact that this means that 52% of Eswatini’s revenue is largely outside of the ambit of its own policy, this revenue is also extremely volatile and consequently difficult to predict. The projection exercise shows the significant deteriorating
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 57
effect of lower SACU revenue transfers on expenditure ceilings, budget deficits and the trajectory of debt; 7. External grants are likely to decrease rather than increase over time. This will be a continuation of the trend experienced over the last five years. A global economic slowdown and Eswatini improving its status to a Medium-Income Country (from Low-Income) are seen as the main contributors to this trend; 8. The country has pursued a relatively expansionary fiscal policy in recent years, including significant increases in transfer payments (in support of Free Primary Education), the wage bill and capital investments. Fiscal discipline and increased spending efficiency is required to reduce the national deficit to sustainable levels while ensuring sufficient investment in priority areas to achieve the country’s longer term growth and social development objectives; 9. The potential for the strengthening of the sugar sector, as a result of normalisation of weather patterns (after the recent drought) and a potential increase in demand, represents a potential opportunity for the country that would lead to an increase in GDP and hence increased tax revenue; 10. On the other side of the argument, just as economic growth can drive fiscal space expansion, a decrease in GDP will drive a contraction. In addition to domestic issues, Eswatini is very vulnerable to South Africa’s economic performance; through SACU revenue and other mechanisms. With the current economic and political uncertainty in the country, lower GDP growth remains a legitimate concern in Eswatini.
58 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
7 References
(n.d.). World Health Organisation. (2014). Global Health Expenditure Database. Retrieved from apps.who.int/nha/database Adams and Adams. (2016). Transfer pricing. AFDB. (2012). African Economic Outlook - Eswatini. Blank, M., & Mistiaen, E. B. (2012). Eswatini: Using Public Transfers to Reduce Extreme Poverty. The World Bank. CSO Malawi. (2017). Retrieved from http://www.nsomalawi.mw/ CSO, U. (2010). 2009/10 Eswatini Household Income and Expenditure Survey - poverty in a decade of slow economic growth: Eswatini in the 2000's. Development, M. o. (n.d.). EY. (2014). Worldwide personal tax guide: Income tax, social security and immigration. Retrieved from http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Worldwide_Personal_Tax_Guide_2013- 2014/$FILE/2013-2014%20Worldwide%20personal%20tax%20guide.pdf Global Financial Integrity. (2015, December). Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries: 2004 -2013. Retrieved from http://www.gfintegrity.org/issues/data-by-country/ Government of the Kingdom of Eswatini. (2017). Estimates for the years from 1st April 2017 to 31st March 2018. Health, M. o. (2015). The Second National Health Sector Strategic Plan 2014-2018. IMF. (2003). Eswatini: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix. IMF. (2007). The Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa: Shocks, Adjustments, and Policy Challenges. IMF. (2010). Kingdom of Eswatini: 2010 Article IV Consultation - Staff Report. IMF. (2014). Preention and Management of Government Expenditure Arrears. IMF. (2015). Article IV: The Kingdom of Eswatini. IMF. (2017). Article IV: Eswatini. IMF. (2017). Article IV: The Kingdom of Eswatini. IMF. (2017b). Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries: Proposed Reforms. IMF, prepared by Jiro Honda, Fernando Im, Natalia Koliadina, Murna Morgan, Manabu Nose, Cesar Sosa Padilla,. (2017). Fiscal Rules: Coping with Revenue Volatility in Lesotho and Eswatini. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2017. Ministry of Economic Planning and Development. (2009). Eswatini Economic performance report. Ministry of Economic Planning and Development. (2017). External Assistance in Eswatini 2015/2016. Ministry of Economic Planning and Development. (2017). Q1 Budget Performance Report FY2017/18. Ministry of Education and Training. (2015). Annual Education Census (AEC) Report 2015 (Education Statistics). Ministry of Finance . (2017). Historical Budgetary Data provided to DNA directly by the Ministry of Finance. Ministry of Finance. (2016). Eswatini Budget Speech. Ministry of Finance. (2017). Budget Speech 2017. Ministry of Health. (2015). Second National Health Sector Strategic Ministry of Health Plan. Moody's. (2017, October). Moody's Research. Retrieved from Moody's: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-assigns-B2-first-time-issuer-ratings-to-the- Government--PR_374119 SACU. (2016). Annual Report 2016. SRA. (2015). Strategic Plan 2015/15 - 2017/18. SRA. (2017). Eswatini Revenue Authority. Retrieved from http://www.sra.org.sz/aboutus/pageview.php?id=59&name=About%20Eswatini%20Reven ue%20Authority Eswatini Central Statistical Office. (2017). Eswatini CSO. Retrieved from http://www.swazistats.org.sz/
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 59
The Kingdom of Eswatini. (2013). Eswatini Government Programme of Action for the year 2014- 2018. The Kingdom of Eswatini, U. (2015). Eswatini Poulation Projections (2007 - 2030). Tralac. (2015). Retrieved from https://www.tralac.org/news/article/5830-Eswatini-loses-agoa- benefits-from-january-1-2015.html. Tralac. (2016, April 13). Retrieved from https://agoa.info/news/article/6092-Eswatini-reforming-laws- to-regain-agoa-status.html Tralac. (2017, July 05). Retrieved from https://agoa.info/news/article/15141-us-urges-Eswatini-to- review-terrorism-law-as-precondition-for-agoa-readmission.html Unicef. (2015). Education for All 2015: National Review (Eswatini). United Nations. (2012). Rapid Assessment of the impact of the fiscal crisis in Eswatini. USAID. (2017). Data Drives Decisions to Increase Number of Health Workers in Eswatini. Retrieved from https://www.hfgproject.org/data-drives-decisions-to-increase-number-of- health-workers-in-Eswatini/ USDA. (2016, Novermber). Retrieved from https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Eswatini%20Agricultural%20E conomic%20Fact%20Sheet_Pretoria_Eswatini_11-16-2016.pdf Whiteside, A., Andrade, C., Arrehag, L., Dlamini, S., Ginindza, T., & Parikh, A. (2016). The Socio- Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS. World Bank. (2012). Eswatini: Using Public Transfers to Reduce Extreme Poverty. World Bank. (2017). Macro Poverty Outlook : Eswatini.
60 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
Appendix 1: Fiscal space projections
This Appendix describes the details of the base-scenario projection exercise discussed above, and then describes the results of a sensitivity analysis.
The base-scenario programming assumptions are intended to be relatively simplified, to make the calculation relatively easy to carry out and to understand. The following general explanatory points are noted: 1. The assumptions are “programming” assumptions. They are not intended, and should not be understood, as forecasts, but rather as plausible possibilities for planning purposes. In particular, the growth rates of government expenditure are intended as plausible policy settings; 2. In general, the aim for the base scenario is to set programming assumptions that are “neutral.” For example, Lesotho’s merchandise export volumes are assumed to grow at the same rates as the world trade volume, so Lesotho exports maintain the same share of the world trade volume. The volume of Lesotho’s merchandise imports is assumed to grow at the same rates as real GDP, so merchandise imports would tend to maintain the percentage of GDP. For recurrent expenditure, the assumption that staff sizes will grow at the same rate as the population would be neutral in a similar sense. So is the assumption that government wage rates would grow at the same rate as per-capita nominal GDP; 3. The elasticities that help determine the government’s revenue performance are taken to be somewhat higher than one in the initial projection year, and then to decline gradually toward one over the projection period. In general, it is inadvisable to apply econometric point estimates based on historical data for these values, for at least two reasons. The first is that future elasticities are likely to differ from historical elasticities. The second is that, say, if the elasticity of a given revenue line with respect to nominal GDP is assumed always to exceed (be less than) one, the projected revenue flow would rise (diminish) indefinitely as a percentage of GDP; 4. It is straightforward to set programming assumptions that adjust gradually over the projection period, using (“geometric”) adjustment formulas. This is useful for several different assumption lines. For example, a large proportion of the assumptions are set as growth rates. These can be assumed to rise or diminish gradually from their initial projection values toward their final projection values. Another way to use a gradual adjustment would be for the elasticity of a given revenue line with respect to nominal GDP to take on an initial value somewhat different from one, but then gradually adjust toward a long-term value of one.
For the base scenario, the programming assumptions are as follows:
Table A.1 Projection results for the fiscal-space projection exercise (base scenario) Average : FY16 FY21 GENERAL GOVERNMNET FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS: FY17- -17 -22 18- FY21-22 Per cent of GDP (A) Total priority non-interest expenditure: 12.0 12.3 12.2 Total education expenditure 7.2 7.4 7.4 Total health expenditure 4.1 4.2 4.2 Total social-protection expenditure 0.6 0.6 0.6
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 61
Average : FY16 FY21 GENERAL GOVERNMNET FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS: FY17- -17 -22 18- FY21-22 Priority recurrent expenditure: 11.5 11.9 11.8 Recurrent education expenditure: 7.0 7.2 7.2 Expenditure on education staff 5.3 5.5 5.5 Non-staff recurrent education expenditure: 1.7 1.7 1.7 Recurrent education expenditure on goods and services 0.3 0.3 0.3 Other non-staff recurrent education expenditure 1.3 1.4 1.3 Recurrent health expenditure: 4.0 4.1 4.0 Expenditure on health staff 1.5 1.6 1.6 Non-staff recurrent health expenditure: 2.4 2.5 2.5 Recurrent health expenditure on goods and services 1.7 1.7 1.7 Other non-staff recurrent health expenditure 0.8 0.8 0.8 Social-welfare expenditure 0.6 0.6 0.6 Expenditure on social welfare staff 0.0 0.0 0.0 Non-staff recurrent social welfare expenditure: 0.5 0.6 0.6 Recurrent social welfare expenditure on goods and services 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other non-staff recurrent social welfare expenditure 0.5 0.6 0.6 Priority non-recurrent expenditure: 0.5 0.4 0.3 Non-recurrent education expenditure 0.3 0.2 0.2 Non-recurrent health expenditure 0.2 0.1 0.1 Non-recurrent social welfare expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0
(B) Tax and non-tax revenue (excl. external grants) (+): 33.1 33.5 33.9 Tax revenue: 32.6 33.0 33.4 Income tax: 11.2 12.4 13.2 Company income tax 3.7 4.1 4.4 Personal income tax 7.5 8.3 8.9 Other income tax: 0.0 0.0 0.0 Taxes of international trade and transactions 13.0 11.0 9.3 Customs and other import duties (SACU) 13.0 11.0 9.3 Excises 0.0 0.0 0.0 Domestic taxes on goods and services 8.3 9.5 10.8 Value-added tax on internal transactions 5.4 5.7 5.7 Alcohol and tobacco products 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other goods and services 0.0 0.0 0.0 Taxes on specific services 0.0 0.0 0.0 Profits of fiscal monopolies 0.7 0.7 0.7 Taxes on use of good or on permission to use goods 2.0 2.1 2.1 Fuel tax 1.8 1.9 1.9 Other 0.2 0.2 0.2 Other taxes on goods and services 0.1 0.8 2.2 Other taxes 0.1 0.1 0.1
62 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
Average : FY16 FY21 GENERAL GOVERNMNET FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS: FY17- -17 -22 18- FY21-22
Non-tax revenue (excl. external grants) (+): 0.5 0.5 0.5 Property income 0.1 0.1 0.1 Sale of goods and services 0.2 0.2 0.2 Fines, penalties and forfeits 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other non-tax 0.1 0.1 0.1
(C) External grants (+): 1.2 1.0 1.0 External grants for current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 External grants for capital expenditure (projects) 1.2 1.0 1.0
Total government non-interest expenditure 47.2 46.7 45.3 Recurrent expenditure 37.4 38.6 38.3 Non-recurrent expenditure 9.8 8.1 6.9
(D) Total non-priority non-interest expenditure (-): -35.2 -34.5 -33.1 Non-priority recurrent expenditure: 25.9 26.8 26.5 Non-priority expenditure on staff 12.4 12.5 12.2 Non-staff recurrent non-priority expenditure: 13.5 14.2 14.3 Recurrent non-priority expenditure on goods and services 5.6 6.1 6.3 Other non-staff recurrent non-priority expenditure 7.9 8.1 8.0 Non-priority non-recurrent expenditure 9.4 7.7 6.6
(E) External-debt disbursements (+): 0.4 0.3 0.3 External-debt disbursements (+) (US$ millions): 0.0 0.0 0.0
(F) External debt service (-): -1.3 -0.9 -0.7 External interest expenditure (-) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 External interest expenditure (-) (US$ million) 0.0 0.0 0.0 External debt repayments (-) -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 External debt repayments (-) (US$ millions) -0.1 0.0 0.0
(G) Net internal financial flows (incl. internal interest) (+): 13.8 13.1 11.0 Net internal financial flows (excl. internal interest) (+): 0.0 0.0 0.0 Internal-debt disbursements (+) 10.1 0.0 0.0 Internal debt repayments (-) -6.9 0.0 0.0 Internal interest expenditure (-) -1.0 3.5 25.9 Discrepancy (+) 11.6 9.7 8.2
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 63
Table A.2 Projected priority expenditure (US dollars per child and exchange rate FY2016/17) Average : FY16- FY21- GENERAL GOVERNMNET FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS: FY17- 17 22 18- FY21-22 US$ per child at prices and exchange rate of 2016 $1,408. $1,978. (A) Total priority non-interest expenditure: 6 $1,720.8 6 $1,202. Total education expenditure $851.6 $1,044.4 0 Total health expenditure $488.5 $592.9 $678.3 Total social-protection expenditure $68.6 $83.5 $98.3
$1,355. $1,925. Priority recurrent expenditure: 5 $1,667.8 8 $1,171. Recurrent education expenditure: $821.0 $1,013.9 5 Expenditure on education staff $625.0 $776.2 $899.7 Non-staff recurrent education expenditure: $196.0 $237.7 $271.8 Recurrent education expenditure on goods and services $39.0 $47.2 $54.0 Other non-staff recurrent education expenditure $157.1 $190.4 $217.7 Recurrent health expenditure: $467.6 $572.2 $657.8 Expenditure on health staff $179.3 $222.7 $258.1 Non-staff recurrent health expenditure: $288.3 $349.5 $399.7 Recurrent health expenditure on goods and services $195.7 $237.2 $271.3 Other non-staff recurrent health expenditure $92.6 $112.3 $128.4 Social-welfare expenditure $66.9 $81.8 $96.6 Expenditure on social welfare staff $2.3 $0.0 $0.0 Non-staff recurrent social welfare expenditure: $64.6 $81.7 $96.6 Recurrent social welfare expenditure on goods and services $0.4 $0.4 $0.5 Other non-staff recurrent social welfare expenditure $64.3 $81.3 $96.0 Priority non-recurrent expenditure: $53.2 $52.9 $52.8 Non-recurrent education expenditure $30.5 $30.5 $30.5 Non-recurrent health expenditure $20.9 $20.7 $20.5 Non-recurrent social welfare expenditure $1.8 $1.8 $1.7
64 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
Table A.3 Additional sensitivity analysis for the fiscal space projection exercise - enhanced expenditure on child protection Scenario: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Assumptions that vary with scenarios:
Growth rate Growth Growth gradually Growth Growth rate rate rate rises over rate Growth rate Growth Growth remains remains remains the remains remains averages a averages a Real GDP growth rate (National unchanged at unchanged unchanged projection unchanged unchanged at rate of -1% rate of -1% currency) 2% over the at 2% over at 2% over period; at 2% over 2% over the over the over the projection the the from 3.5% the projection projection projection period. projection projection in projection period. period period period. period. FY2017/18 period. to 5.0% in FY21/22 Gradually Gradually increases increases over the Remains over the Remains Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 projection at 1 over projection at 1 over Elasticity of company-tax revenue with over the over the over the over the period; the period; the respect to nominal GDP projection projection projection projection from 1.0 projection from 1.0 projection period. period. period. period. in FY16/17 period in FY16/17 period. to 1.5 in to 1.5 in FY21/22 FY21/22 Gradually Gradually increases increases over the Remains over the Remains Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 projection at 1 over projection at 1 over Elasticity of personal income tax over the over the over the over the period; the period; the revenue with respect to nominal GDP projection projection projection projection from 1.0 projection from 1.0 projection period. period. period. period. in FY16/17 period in FY16/17 period. to 1.5 in to 1.5 in FY21/22 FY21/22
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 65
Scenario: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Gradually increases Remains over the Remains Remains Remains Remains Remains unchanged projection unchanged unchanged Remains unchanged at unchanged at VAT rate on alcohol and tobacco unchanged at at 14% period; at 14% at 14% unchanged at 14% over the 14% over the products 14% over the over the from over the over the 14% over the projection projection projection period projection 14.0% in projection projection projection period period period period FY16/17 period period to 18% in FY20/21. Gradually increases Remains over the Remains Remains Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 at 1 over projection at 1 over at 1 over over the over the over the over the Elasticity as related to Fuel Levy the period; the the projection projection projection projection projection from 1.0 projection projection period. period. period. period. period. in FY16/17 period. period. to 3.0 in FY21/22. Gradually Gradually Gradually Gradually increases increases increases increases over the over the over the over the Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 projection projection projection projection Elasticity of education staff size with over the over the over the over the period; period; period; period; respect to child population projection projection projection projection from 1.0 from 1.0 from 1.0 from 1.0 period. period. period. period. in FY16/17 in FY16/17 in FY16/17 in FY16/17 to 3.0 in to 3.0 in to 3.0 in to 3.0 in FY21/22. FY21/22. FY21/22. FY21/22.
66 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland
Scenario: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Remains Remains Remains Remains Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 at 1 over at 1 over at 1 over at 1 over Elasticity of health staff size with over the over the over the over the the the the the respect to total population projection projection projection projection projection projection projection projection period. period. period. period. period. period. period. period.
Gradually Gradually Gradually Gradually increases increases increases increases over the over the over the over the Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 projection projection projection projection Elasticity of social protection over the over the over the over the period; period; period; period; expenditure to child population projection projection projection projection from 1.0 from 1.0 from 1.0 from 1.0 period. period. period. period. in FY15/16 FY15/16 in FY15/16 in FY15/16 to 3.0 in to 2 in to 5.5 in to 5.5 in FY20/21. FY20/21. FY20/21. FY20/21. Decreases gradually Remains Remains Remains over the Remains at 1 Remains at 1 Remains at 1 at 1 over at 1 over at 1 over projection Remains at 1 Elasticity of non-priority recurrent over the over the over the the the the period; over the expenditure to nominal GDP growth projection projection projection projection projection projection from 1.0 projection period period. period period. period. period. period. in FY16/17 to 0.5 in FY21/22. Grows at Grows at Grows at Grows at Grows at 0.3% Grows at - Grows at 0.3% 0.3% over 0.3% over 0.3% over 0.3% over Grows at 0.3% over the 0.3% over the SACU transfer growth rate over the the the the the over the projection projection projection period projection projection projection projection projection period period period. period period period period
Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland 67
Scenario: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Increases from Grows at Grows at Grows at Grows at 1.0 in Grows at 0.3% Grows at 0.3% Grows at 0.3% 0.3% over 0.3% over 0.3% over 0.3% over Execution factor increase for non- FY2016/17, to over the over the over the the the the the recurrent priority expenditure 2.0 over the projection projection projection period projection projection projection projection projection period period period period period period period. Results:
Average tax revenue/GDP, FY2016–2021 32.35% 32.97% 32.85% 32.80% 32.35% 32.35% 33.33% 32.16%
Average priority expenditure/GDP, 12.13% 12.28% 12.19% 12.20% 12.34% 14.38% 12.57% 12.13% FY2016–2021
Average priority expenditure per child (US$ at FY2016 prices and exchange $581.65 $588.54 $584.13 $602.67 $591.24 $687.38 $552.22 $581.65 rate), FY2016–2021
Net internal debt flow/GDP, FY2016– 13.63% 13.16% 13.18% 12.97% 13.84% 15.87% 13.93% 13.82% 2021
Total government debt/GDP, FY2021 34.56% 33.50% 33.60% 32.76% 34.99% 41.16% 35.25% 35.08%
68 Fiscal Space for Children: An Analysis of Options in Swaziland