DOCSLIB.ORG

Path Dependence in Intrastate Conflicts: Resources, Regimes, and Interventions

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Path Dependence in Intrastate Conflicts: Resources, Regimes, and Interventions Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations Graduate Program in International Studies Summer 2015 Path Dependence in Intrastate Conflicts: Resources, Regimes, and Interventions Ivan Medynskyi Old Dominion University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the International and Area Studies Commons, Peace and Conflict Studies Commons, and the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Medynskyi, Ivan. "Path Dependence in Intrastate Conflicts: Resources, Regimes, and Interventions" (2015). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/mn4y-g353 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/1 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. PATH DEPENDENCE IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS: RESOURCES, REGIMES, AND INTERVENTIONS by Ivan Medynskyi B.A. June 2009, Kyiv International University M.A. May 2011, Kansas State University A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY August 2015 Approved by: ___________________________ David C. Earnest (Director) ___________________________ Kurt T. Gaubatz (Member) ___________________________ Austin Jersild (Member) ___________________________ Jesse Richman (Member) ABSTRACT PATH DEPENDENCE IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS: RESOURCES, REGIMES, AND INTERVENTIONS Ivan Medynskyi Old Dominion University, 2015 Director: Dr. David C. Earnest This dissertation investigates the patterns of path dependence in intrastate conflicts. It is motivated by three research questions: What factors determine a particular outcome of a civil war? How strong is their impact? What are the causal mechanisms in play? To examine these questions, this study introduces a theory of path dependence to the study of intrastate conflicts that bridges the gap between analyses of the phases of contention. First, it examines the broad understanding of path dependence that highlights the impact of initial conditions on civil war outcomes. Then, this dissertation explores the narrower notion which focuses on the role of timing and sequence of internal factors and intervening events in shaping different resolutions to intrastate conflicts. Using multinomial logistic regression and event history models to analyze initial conditions, intrinsic features, and intervening factors in influencing the probability of particular civil war outcomes, this study identifies relevant agencies that can be utilized to shape solutions for current and future instances of armed civil conflicts. Finally, three case studies test the applicability of the path dependence theory through outlining the narratives, incorporating quantitative findings, and identifying causal mechanisms. The empirical findings of the initial conditions models emphasize the relevance of conflict spillover, non-lootable resources, and structure of bipolarity. An investigation into the factors that ‘lock in’ a particular civil war outcome highlights the role of UN and regional intergovernmental organizations in accelerating a compromise outcome; explains the variation in dynamics behind democratic and autocratic regimes; but surprisingly finds no support for the relationship between the size of the armed forces and conflict outcome. Although case study analysis supports the validity of the empirical results, it also points at the potential limitations of the quantitative design. Since this study follows a mixed methods approach, it effectively compensates for the drawbacks of different types of analysis. iv © Copyright, 2015, by Ivan Medynskyi. All rights reserved. v Для моєї Родини For my Family vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS A road of thousand miles begins with a single step. I am deeply grateful to my dissertation committee chair, Dr. David Earnest, who not only encouraged me to make the first step toward this project, but also patiently guided through the tumultuous process of drafting the ideas, testing the assumptions, and defending the findings. In the light of path dependence theory that I elaborate in this study, the advice of Dr. Kurt Gaubatz regarding the topic and methods was a critical initial condition that shaped the course of the dissertation towards more robust results. Dr. Jesse Richman’s guidance through a quantitative dimension and Dr. Austin Jersild’s suggestions regarding the qualitative approach served as tipping points that shifted the path of my work toward a comprehensive understanding of an intrastate conflict. Aside from their counsel with the dissertation, I want to express my gratitude to all committee members as well as Dr. Simon Serfaty, Dr. Steve Yetiv, and Dr. Peter Schulman, who shared their knowledge regarding the complex nature of international relations. I would like to recognize Dr. Regina Karp for her outstanding role in ensuring the success of every student in the Graduate Program in International Studies. I would also like to acknowledge the Fulbright Program, Old Dominion University, Open Society Foundations, and Institute for Humane Studies for making my graduate experience diverse and rewarding. Finally, I am thankful to my family who always believe in me and friends who make my life complete. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................1 FROM A PEACEFUL REVOLUTION TO AN ARMED CONFLICT: WAR IN UKRAINE................................................................................................................5 TIPPING THE SCALES OF CONFLICT ...............................................................8 ORGANIZATION OF THE DISSERTATION.....................................................10 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................13 2. INTRASTATE CONFLICTS AND PATH DEPENDENCE ......................................14 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................14 DEBATES IN THE STUDY OF INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ...........................15 SOCIOLOGICAL APPROACH TO CIVIL WARS .............................................46 APPLICATION OF THE PATH DEPENDENCE THEORY TO THE STUDY OF INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ..........................................................................52 TIPPING POINTS IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ...........................................65 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................73 3. METHODOLOGY AND OPERATIONALIZATION OF VARIABLES ..................75 IDENTIFYING INTRASTATE CONFLICTS......................................................75 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................78 OPERATIONALIZATION OF VARIABLES ......................................................89 DEPENDENT VARIABLE ...................................................................................90 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ............................................................................90 CONTROL VARIABLE .....................................................................................101 MISSING VARIABLES ......................................................................................101 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................102 4. QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION OF THE ONSET CONDITIONS AND OUTCOMES IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ........................................................103 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................103 viii Page MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS ...............................104 OIL, CONTAGION, AND THE COLD WAR ...................................................106 DIAMONDS, ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION .............113 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................116 5. QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION OF THE TIPPING POINTS IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ..............................................................................................................117 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................117 NARROW DEFINITION OF PATH DEPENDENCE .......................................118 MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS ...............................120 PARAMETRIC SURVIVAL MODEL (WEIBULL) ..........................................122 COX COMPETING RISKS PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL ..............126 COMPETING RISKS ANALYSIS USING FINE AND GRAY MODEL .........136 CURRENT FINDINGS AND THE EXISTING LITERATURE ON THE OUTCOMES OF INTRASTATE CONFLICTS .................................................148
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Does Cyclical Explanation Provide Insight to Protracted Conflicts in Africa?
    Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review (Nigerian Chapter) Vol. 3, No. 11, 2015 DOES CYCLICAL EXPLANATION PROVIDE INSIGHT TO PROTRACTED CONFLICTS IN AFRICA? David Oladimeji Alao, Ph.D Department of Political Science and Public Administration Veronica Adeleke School of Social Sciences, Babcock University, Ilishan-Remo, Ogun State +2348035572279. [email protected] Ngozi Nwogwugwu, PhD Department of Political Science and Public Administration Veronica Adeleke School of Social Sciences, Babcock University, Ilishan-Remo, Ogun State. [email protected] ABSTRACT Africa accounted for greater percentage of violent conflict globally since the end of the cold war. There had been resurgence of violent conflict in many nations after what had been presumed to be peaceful resolution of such conflicts. Among the countries that have had recurring violent conflicts are Mali, Central African Republic, Egypt among others. This had resulted in formulation of many theories, largely revolving around causative and redemptive measures. The resurgence of deep rooted and protracted conflicts informed the paper which examined the cyclical model of conflicts in Africa. The cyclical model points government and practitioners to the defects of the haphazard conflict resolution measures which show lack of political will to combine causative and redemptive measures in ensuring peaceful resolution of conflicts. INTRODUCTION The joy and expectations of nations in Africa becoming independent was short-lived as conflicts and crises of multidimensional nature dotted the whole map turning citizens to refugees within and outside their nations. According to DFID (2001) report, 10 of the twenty four nations of the World engulfed in direct violence or outright war between 1980 and 1994 were located in Africa.
    [Show full text]
  • The Peace Vs. Justice Debate and the Syrian Crisis
    American University Washington College of Law Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law Articles in Law Reviews & Other Academic Journals Scholarship & Research 2018 The Peace vs. Justice Debate and the Syrian Crisis Paul Williams Lisa Dicker C. Danae Paterson Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/facsch_lawrev Part of the Human Rights Law Commons, International Humanitarian Law Commons, International Law Commons, Law and Gender Commons, and the Military, War, and Peace Commons THE PEACE VS. JUSTICE PUZZLE AND THE SYRIAN CRISIS Paul R Williams,' Lisa K Dicker," C. Danae Paterson I. INTRODUCTION........................................... 418 II. THE "PEACE-FIRST" APPROACH ........................ ..... 420 A. PrioritizingEnding the Conflict. .................. ....... 421 B. Benefits of the Peace-FirstApproach.............. ............ 422 1. Saving Lives...................................... 422 2. Ending Harm to the Environment and Infrastructure ..................... 422 3. Promoting Reconciliation ....................... ..... 423 C. Achieving Peace-Firstin Practice........................ 423 1. Singular Objective of Ending the Conflict............ ..... 423 2. Negotiating with the Guys with Guns ...... ....................... 424 3. Accommodation and Appeasement................ ......... 424 4. Minimizing Justice .............. ................... 425 5. Amnesty ........................................ 426 D. Case Studies ............................... ........ 426 * Rebecca
    [Show full text]
  • Democratic Republic of Congo
    DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 350 Fifth Ave 34 th Floor New York, N.Y. 10118-3299 http://www.hrw.org (212) 290-4700 Vol. 15, No. 11 (A) - July 2003 I hid in the mountains and went back down to Songolo at about 3:00 p.m. I saw many people killed and even saw traces of blood where people had been dragged. I counted 82 bodies most of whom had been killed by bullets. We did a survey and found that 787 people were missing – we presumed they were all dead though we don’t know. Some of the bodies were in the road, others in the forest. Three people were even killed by mines. Those who attacked knew the town and posted themselves on the footpaths to kill people as they were fleeing. -- Testimony to Human Rights Watch ITURI: “COVERED IN BLOOD” Ethnically Targeted Violence In Northeastern DR Congo 1630 Connecticut Ave, N.W., Suite 500 2nd Floor, 2-12 Pentonville Road 15 Rue Van Campenhout Washington, DC 20009 London N1 9HF, UK 1000 Brussels, Belgium TEL (202) 612-4321 TEL: (44 20) 7713 1995 TEL (32 2) 732-2009 FAX (202) 612-4333 FAX: (44 20) 7713 1800 FAX (32 2) 732-0471 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] “You cannot escape from the horror” This story of fifteen-year-old Elise is one of many in Ituri. She fled one attack after another and witnessed appalling atrocities. Walking for more than 300 miles in her search for safety, Elise survived to tell her tale; many others have not.
    [Show full text]
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo
    DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO: Worsening humanitarian crisis as internal displacement escalates in the east A profile of the internal displacement situation 29 November, 2007 This Internal Displacement Profile is automatically generated from the online IDP database of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). It includes an overview of the internal displacement situation in the country prepared by the IDMC, followed by a compilation of excerpts from relevant reports by a variety of different sources. All headlines as well as the bullet point summaries at the beginning of each chapter were added by the IDMC to facilitate navigation through the Profile. Where dates in brackets are added to headlines, they indicate the publication date of the most recent source used in the respective chapter. The views expressed in the reports compiled in this Profile are not necessarily shared by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. The Profile is also available online at www.internal-displacement.org. About the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, established in 1998 by the Norwegian Refugee Council, is the leading international body monitoring conflict-induced internal displacement worldwide. Through its work, the Centre contributes to improving national and international capacities to protect and assist the millions of people around the globe who have been displaced within their own country as a result of conflicts or human rights violations. At the request of the United Nations, the Geneva-based Centre runs an online database providing comprehensive information and analysis on internal displacement in some 50 countries. Based on its monitoring and data collection activities, the Centre advocates for durable solutions to the plight of the internally displaced in line with international standards.
    [Show full text]
  • UNHCR Position on Returns to North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Adjacent
    POSITION ON RETURNS TO NORTH KIVU, SOUTH KIVU, ITURI AND ADJACENT AREAS – UPDATE II UNHCR POSITION ON RETURNS TO NORTH KIVU, SOUTH KIVU, ITURI, AND ADJACENT AREAS IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO AFFECTED BY ONGOING CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE – Update II June September 2019 Introduction.............................................................................................................................................. 1 Conflict in North and South Kivu ............................................................................................................. 3 Ituri Province ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Human Rights Situation .......................................................................................................................... 7 Humanitarian Situation ............................................................................................................................ 7 Ebola Situation in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces ................................................................................... 8 Internal Displacement, Refugee Movements and Returns ..................................................................... 9 UNHCR Position on Returns ................................................................................................................. 10 Voluntary Returns ................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Courting Conflict? Justice, Peace and the ICC in Africa
    Courting Conflict? Justice, Peace and the ICC in Africa Edited by Nicholas Waddell and Phil Clark Courting Conflict? Justice, Peace and the ICC in Africa Edited by Nicholas Waddell and Phil Clark About The Royal African Society Now over 100 years old, the Royal African Society is Britain’s primary Africa organisation. Through its journal, African Affairs, and by organising meetings, discussions and other activities, the Society strengthens links between Africa and Britain and encourages understanding of Africa and its relations with the rest of the world. The Society, based at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London, has over a thousand members and has branches in Bristol and Scotland. The Society’s Director is Richard Dowden, a journalist working on Africa for more than 20 years and formerly Africa Editor of The Independent and The Economist. For further information, see: www.royalafricansociety.org ISBN 978-0-9558622-0-5 Published March 2008 Design: LSE Design Unit (www.lse.ac.uk/designunit) Cover image: militia leader Germain Katanga sits in the courtroom of the International Criminal Court, The Hague. ROBERT VOS/AFP/Getty Images Contents Acknowledgements 2 About the contributors 3 List of abbreviations 5 Foreword Justice Albie Sachs 6 1. Introduction 7 Nicholas Waddell and Phil Clark 2. Justice in Conflict? The ICC and Peace Processes 13 Nick Grono and Adam O’Brien 3. Justice at Juba: International Obligations and Local 21 Demands in Northern Uganda Marieke Wierda and Michael Otim 4. Darfur, the Court and Khartoum: 29 The Politics of State Non-Cooperation Alex de Waal 5.
    [Show full text]
  • Rumours of Peace, Whispers of War
    Public Disclosure Authorized Rumours of Peace, Whispers of War Assessment of the Reintegration of Ex-Combatants into Civilian Life in North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri Democratic Republic of Congo Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Guy Lamb, Nelson Alusala, Gregory Mthembu-Salter and Jean-Marie Gasana Copyright © 2012 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 www.tdrp.net www.worldbank.org This study was produced under the Transitional Demobilization and Reintegration Program (TDRP). The find- ings, interpretations, and conclusions herein are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of the TDRP donors, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, its Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. Queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to: the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA Fax: 202-522-2422.
    [Show full text]
  • Icglr Mediation in the Dr Congo-M23 Rebels Conflict in North Kivu in 2012 G
    AFRICAN REGIONAL INITIATIVES IN CONFLICT MANAGEMENT: ICGLR MEDIATION IN THE DR CONGO-M23 REBELS CONFLICT IN NORTH KIVU IN 2012 GEORGE KIPCHUMBA ROTICH R50/65625/2010 A RESEARCH PROJECT SUBMITTED IN THE FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE DEGREE OF MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT MANAGEMENT, INSTITUTE OF DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI NOVEMBER, 2013 DECLARATION This research project is my original work and has not been presented to any other institution or university. Signed _________________ Date ________________ GEORGE KIPCHUMBA ROTICH R50/65625/2010 This research project has been submitted for examination with our approval as the university supervisors. Sign_________________ Date _______________ DR. ANITA KIAMBA INSTITUTE OF DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI ii TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ............................................................................................................................ ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................... iii CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Study ....................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem of the Research ....................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Objectives of the Study ......................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Literature
    [Show full text]
  • Ghent Papers
    ABORNE workshop 2010 Christine Bichsel Trouble on the margins. Peace-building in the borderlands of post-Soviet Central Asia DRAFT: PLEASE DO NOT CIRCULATE OR QUOTE! Christine Bichsel Département de Géosciences, University of Fribourg, Switzerland Paper to be presented at International Workshop “Bringing the margins back in: war making and state making in the borderlands”, Ghent, 12-14 February 20101 1. Introduction This paper looks into peace-building in the Ferghana Valley, a large intramontane basin in post- Soviet Central Asia. In 2002, a document of an aid agency running peace-building projects characterised the Ferghana Valley as ‘a culturally rich and diverse area with the potential for real growth in many spheres, but also the undeniable potential for dangerous divisions’ (Mercy Corps 2002:3, emphasis added). Dangerous divisions, as referred to in this quotation, were seen by the aid agency in manifold aspects. An important one among them were the divisions as embodied in the political borders which transect the Ferghana Valley, separating the three states Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan who currently share the basin. Dangerous, in turn, refers to a particular social imaginary of the Ferghana Valley, attributed both by academic and journalistic writing, as well as by practical attempts to mitigate a perceived potential for violence. 1 Funding for research on which this paper is based was provided by the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR) North–South: Research Partnerships for Mitigating Syndromes of Global Change. The NCCR North–South programme is co-funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation.
    [Show full text]
  • Icc-01/04-01/06-Hne-15
    ICC-01/04-01/06-788-Anx2 17-01-2007 1/32 SL PT ICC-01/04-01/06-HNE-15 PURL: https://www.legal-tools.org/doc/8e93b9/ ICC-01/04-01/06-788-Anx2 17-01-2007 2/32 SL PT OCCASIONAL PAPER Centre of African Studies University of Copenhagen The Formation of New Political Complexes: Dynamics of Conflict in Ituri - Democratic Republic of Congo - Koen Vlassenroot Tim Raeymaekers October 2003 PURL: https://www.legal-tools.org/doc/8e93b9/ ICC-01/04-01/06-788-Anx2 17-01-2007 3/32 SL PT The Formation of New Political Complexes: Dynamics of Conflict in Ituri Democratic Republic of Congo - Koen Vlassen root & Tim Raeymaekers Department of Third World Studies Faculty of Political and Social Sciences University of Ghent PURL: https://www.legal-tools.org/doc/8e93b9/ ICC-01/04-01/06-788-Anx2 17-01-2007 4/32 SL PT Dr. Koen Vlassenroot visited the Centre of African Studies on 9 September 2003 where he as part of his ongoing research on the Democratic Republic of Congo gave a seminar on "Dynamics of the Conflict in Eastern Congo: The formation of new political complexes". This Occasional Paper is a revised version of his presentation written together with Tim Rayemaekers. Koen Vlassenroot and Tim Raeymaekers belong to the Conflict Research Group at the University of Ghent. PURL: https://www.legal-tools.org/doc/8e93b9/ ICC-01/04-01/06-788-Anx2 17-01-2007 5/32 SL PT Contents 1 INTRODUCTION . .... 1 2 HISTORY OF LOCAL CONFLICT . 5 3 INTENSIFIED STRUGGLE FOR POLITICAL POWER .
    [Show full text]
  • ITURI: “COVERED in BLOOD” Ethnically Targeted Violence in Northeastern DR Congo
    DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 350 Fifth Ave 34 th Floor New York, N.Y. 10118-3299 http://www.hrw.org (212) 290-4700 Vol. 15, No. 11 (A) - July 2003 I hid in the mountains and went back down to Songolo at about 3:00 p.m. I saw many people killed and even saw traces of blood where people had been dragged. I counted 82 bodies most of whom had been killed by bullets. We did a survey and found that 787 people were missing – we presumed they were all dead though we don’t know. Some of the bodies were in the road, others in the forest. Three people were even killed by mines. Those who attacked knew the town and posted themselves on the footpaths to kill people as they were fleeing. -- Testimony to Human Rights Watch A Ugandan soldier looks at the remains of a Congolese village, where people were burnt alive in their houses, April 2003. © Anonymous ITURI: “COVERED IN BLOOD” Ethnically Targeted Violence In Northeastern DR Congo 1630 Connecticut Ave, N.W., Suite 500 2nd Floor, 2-12 Pentonville Road 15 Rue Van Campenhout Washington, DC 20009 London N1 9HF, UK 1000 Brussels, Belgium TEL (202) 612-4321 TEL: (44 20) 7713 1995 TEL (32 2) 732-2009 FAX (202) 612-4333 FAX: (44 20) 7713 1800 FAX (32 2) 732-0471 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] “You cannot escape from the horror” This story of fifteen-year-old Elise is one of many in Ituri.
    [Show full text]
  • African Re P
    TUNISIA MOROCCO ALGERI A LI BYA Wester n EGYP T Sahara MAURI TANI A MALI NIGER ERITREA SENEGAL THE GAMBI A CHAD SU DAN GUINEA-BISSAU BURKIN A DJIBOUTI FAS O GUINE A BENIN NIGERIA SIER RA TOGO ETHIOPIA LEONE CÔTE CENT RAL D’I VOIR E GHANA LIBERIA AFRICAN RE P. CAMEROON SOMALIA Afric1 a UGAN DA SAO TOM E EQU AT. AND PRINCIPE GUINEA RE P. O F KEN YA Ishbel Matheson GABON THE CONGO RWAN DA DEM. RE P. BURUNDI OF THE CONG O INDIAN TANZANI A OCEAN ANGO LA MA LAWI ATLANTI C ZAMBIA OCEAN MOZAMBIQUE ZIMBABWE MA DAGASCA R NAMIBIA BOTS WAN A SWAZI LAN D LESOTHO SOUTH AFRICA Africa is one of the continents hardest hit by climate highly attuned to vagaries of the weather system, Country by country was officially taught in primary schools, starting in the change – and marginalized minorities are likely to be may in fact be better able to develop adaptive Algeria fourth grade in 17 predominantly Berber provinces.’ among the most vulnerable of all. According to data strategies than other communities ( Fourth Assessment Parliamentary elections in May 2007 were only the released in 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Report , October 2007). third democratic poll to be held since 1992, when However, this progress still falls short of Tamazight Climate Change (IPCC), by 2020 between 75 Apart from the looming threat of climate change, the army cancelled the first multi-party elections being recognized as an ‘official’ language – as million and 250 million people in Africa are conflict with an ethnic dimension, was, once again, which were won by the fundamentalist FIS (Islamic demanded by Berber campaigners.
    [Show full text]