Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations Graduate Program in International Studies Summer 2015 Path Dependence in Intrastate Conflicts: Resources, Regimes, and Interventions Ivan Medynskyi Old Dominion University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the International and Area Studies Commons, Peace and Conflict Studies Commons, and the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Medynskyi, Ivan. "Path Dependence in Intrastate Conflicts: Resources, Regimes, and Interventions" (2015). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/mn4y-g353 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/1 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. PATH DEPENDENCE IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS: RESOURCES, REGIMES, AND INTERVENTIONS by Ivan Medynskyi B.A. June 2009, Kyiv International University M.A. May 2011, Kansas State University A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY August 2015 Approved by: ___________________________ David C. Earnest (Director) ___________________________ Kurt T. Gaubatz (Member) ___________________________ Austin Jersild (Member) ___________________________ Jesse Richman (Member) ABSTRACT PATH DEPENDENCE IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS: RESOURCES, REGIMES, AND INTERVENTIONS Ivan Medynskyi Old Dominion University, 2015 Director: Dr. David C. Earnest This dissertation investigates the patterns of path dependence in intrastate conflicts. It is motivated by three research questions: What factors determine a particular outcome of a civil war? How strong is their impact? What are the causal mechanisms in play? To examine these questions, this study introduces a theory of path dependence to the study of intrastate conflicts that bridges the gap between analyses of the phases of contention. First, it examines the broad understanding of path dependence that highlights the impact of initial conditions on civil war outcomes. Then, this dissertation explores the narrower notion which focuses on the role of timing and sequence of internal factors and intervening events in shaping different resolutions to intrastate conflicts. Using multinomial logistic regression and event history models to analyze initial conditions, intrinsic features, and intervening factors in influencing the probability of particular civil war outcomes, this study identifies relevant agencies that can be utilized to shape solutions for current and future instances of armed civil conflicts. Finally, three case studies test the applicability of the path dependence theory through outlining the narratives, incorporating quantitative findings, and identifying causal mechanisms. The empirical findings of the initial conditions models emphasize the relevance of conflict spillover, non-lootable resources, and structure of bipolarity. An investigation into the factors that ‘lock in’ a particular civil war outcome highlights the role of UN and regional intergovernmental organizations in accelerating a compromise outcome; explains the variation in dynamics behind democratic and autocratic regimes; but surprisingly finds no support for the relationship between the size of the armed forces and conflict outcome. Although case study analysis supports the validity of the empirical results, it also points at the potential limitations of the quantitative design. Since this study follows a mixed methods approach, it effectively compensates for the drawbacks of different types of analysis. iv © Copyright, 2015, by Ivan Medynskyi. All rights reserved. v Для моєї Родини For my Family vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS A road of thousand miles begins with a single step. I am deeply grateful to my dissertation committee chair, Dr. David Earnest, who not only encouraged me to make the first step toward this project, but also patiently guided through the tumultuous process of drafting the ideas, testing the assumptions, and defending the findings. In the light of path dependence theory that I elaborate in this study, the advice of Dr. Kurt Gaubatz regarding the topic and methods was a critical initial condition that shaped the course of the dissertation towards more robust results. Dr. Jesse Richman’s guidance through a quantitative dimension and Dr. Austin Jersild’s suggestions regarding the qualitative approach served as tipping points that shifted the path of my work toward a comprehensive understanding of an intrastate conflict. Aside from their counsel with the dissertation, I want to express my gratitude to all committee members as well as Dr. Simon Serfaty, Dr. Steve Yetiv, and Dr. Peter Schulman, who shared their knowledge regarding the complex nature of international relations. I would like to recognize Dr. Regina Karp for her outstanding role in ensuring the success of every student in the Graduate Program in International Studies. I would also like to acknowledge the Fulbright Program, Old Dominion University, Open Society Foundations, and Institute for Humane Studies for making my graduate experience diverse and rewarding. Finally, I am thankful to my family who always believe in me and friends who make my life complete. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................1 FROM A PEACEFUL REVOLUTION TO AN ARMED CONFLICT: WAR IN UKRAINE................................................................................................................5 TIPPING THE SCALES OF CONFLICT ...............................................................8 ORGANIZATION OF THE DISSERTATION.....................................................10 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................13 2. INTRASTATE CONFLICTS AND PATH DEPENDENCE ......................................14 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................14 DEBATES IN THE STUDY OF INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ...........................15 SOCIOLOGICAL APPROACH TO CIVIL WARS .............................................46 APPLICATION OF THE PATH DEPENDENCE THEORY TO THE STUDY OF INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ..........................................................................52 TIPPING POINTS IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ...........................................65 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................73 3. METHODOLOGY AND OPERATIONALIZATION OF VARIABLES ..................75 IDENTIFYING INTRASTATE CONFLICTS......................................................75 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................78 OPERATIONALIZATION OF VARIABLES ......................................................89 DEPENDENT VARIABLE ...................................................................................90 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ............................................................................90 CONTROL VARIABLE .....................................................................................101 MISSING VARIABLES ......................................................................................101 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................102 4. QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION OF THE ONSET CONDITIONS AND OUTCOMES IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ........................................................103 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................103 viii Page MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS ...............................104 OIL, CONTAGION, AND THE COLD WAR ...................................................106 DIAMONDS, ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION .............113 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................116 5. QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION OF THE TIPPING POINTS IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS ..............................................................................................................117 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................117 NARROW DEFINITION OF PATH DEPENDENCE .......................................118 MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS ...............................120 PARAMETRIC SURVIVAL MODEL (WEIBULL) ..........................................122 COX COMPETING RISKS PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL ..............126 COMPETING RISKS ANALYSIS USING FINE AND GRAY MODEL .........136 CURRENT FINDINGS AND THE EXISTING LITERATURE ON THE OUTCOMES OF INTRASTATE CONFLICTS .................................................148