Dr. Khaled Okasha General Manager

Dr. Abdel-Moneim Said Academic advisor

Supervision by Gen. Mohamed Ibrahim Eldewery Deputy General Manager

Editing By Dr. Ahmad Amal

Translation By Riham Salah Khafagy

Art Direction By Eslam Ali Contents

Preface GERD Failure Analysis and the Impacts on Downstream Countries Founding Papers Haidi ElShafei

The Blue Gold: Ethiopia’s Dam-Building 40 Strategy and the Concept of Hydro-Hegemony The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Dr. Hamdy Abdel-Rahman Agriculture and the Rural Poor in Egypt 8 Nesreen Alsabahe The Basic Idea of Renaissance Dam and the 44 Real Purpose of Construction The Hydrological and Environmental Dr. Mohamed Nasr El-Din Allam Impacts of Constructing the Renaissance Dam 12 Mahmoud Salama Scenarios of Dealing with the Renaissance Dam 48 Crisis in Light of the International Law Provisions Dr. Muhammed Sameh Amr Environmental Impacts of the GERD: 16 Mitigation and Adaptation Options Shimaa Elbiksh Reality of the Negotiations Path 52

Egypt’s Stance Toward the Developments of Prospects for Cooperation GERD Negotiations Gen. Mohamed Ibrahim Eldewery Pathways of Cooperation to Overcome the 24 Renaissance Dam Crisis: Future Prospects Ambassador Dr. Mohamed Hegazy Revisiting Sudan’s Nile position Mostafa Ahmady 58 28 Water Rivalry on the Nile Dr. Hani Sewilam How Does Ethiopia Think About the Renaissance Dam? 64 Hani Raslan Appendices 30 Egypt-Ethiopia Nile Water Dispute: A Does Ethiopia Want to Resolve the Timeline Renaissance Dam Crisis? 70 Dr. Mohamed Nasr El-Din Allam Full Text of «Declaration of Principles» 32 Between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on the GERD Project Impact Assessment of the Renaissance Dam 76 The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Letter of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Impact on Sudan and Egypt Egypt to the Security Council, June 2020 Eng. Haidar Youssef Bekhiet 78 36 Preface

this exact moment, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis has reached an unprecedented level of es- At calation as a consequence of Ethiopia’s intransigence at the negotiating table. It continues attempting to impose a fait accom- pli policy, through proceeding with the completion of the dam con- ÷ĂòĎaĂ°ÎÇĀìFĂĀė°»»Ā»sFkĀĂÎĀÎW÷ĂòĎaĂ°Ç£ĀėFĂsòĀžÎėĀWs¬°ÇkĀìsĀkFÁĀFÇkĀ starting the operation without reaching an agreement maintaining the rights of the two downstream countries: Egypt and Sudan. This is also contrary to what Ethiopia has bound itself to, under the Declaration of Principles signed in March 2015.

Faced with such complicated situation and in parallel with Egypt’s rapid steps toward avoiding the development of this crisis into a direct threat to safety and security on both regional and interna- tional levels; the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies (ECSS) con- sidered it important to release this special issue giving in-depth analysis of all aspects related to this crisis as well as the potential pathways to move beyond.

Entitled The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Po- tential Partnerships, this issue opens with three founding papers high- lighting the idea of constructing Ethiopian dams along the Blue Nile 2°ĕsòiĀ÷°ÇasĀ°ĂĀ›ò÷ĂĀsÁsò£skĀ°ÇĀìsĀÁ°k¯ÕÊþġ÷ãĀÎaĎ÷Ā°÷ĀF»÷ÎĀ£°ĕsÇĀĂÎĀìsĀ continuous endeavors of successive Ethiopian governments to imple- ment these dam projects on the ground.

ĎĂĀ ÷Ďa¬Ā sÇksFĕÎò÷Ā ėsòsĀ ÇÎĂĀ ĂÎĀ ›ÇkĀ FÇĀ ÎÝÝÎòĂĎÇ°ĂěĀ –ÎòĀ òsF»°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀ without Ethiopia’s exploitation of the exceptional situations that Egypt witnessed at the beginning of the past decade. On the other hand, current development of events draws imperative attention to the established position of international law regarding this crisis, and F»÷ÎĀĂÎĀìsĀk°˜sòsÇĂĀF»ĂsòÇFĂ°ĕs÷ĀÎÝsÇĀĂÎĀ£ěÝĂĀ°ÇĀÎòksòĀĂÎĀÁF°ÇĂF°ÇĀ its water rights. This occurs at a time when Ethiopia is falsely alleging the absence of any regulatory restrictions under the international law ìFĂĀaFÇĀÝòsĕsÇĂĀ°Ă÷ĀFĂĂsÁÝĂ÷ĀĂÎĀaÎÇĂòλĀìsĀ'°»sĀ°ÇžÎėĀkÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁãĀ

As to the political perspective, this issue extensively addresses the re- spective negotiating positions of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, especial- ly after their positions witnessed major shifts over the last year. Egypt and Sudan are now fully aware of the Ethiopian negotiators’ sole task to gain time to help their country impose a fait accompli policy through building the dam without consensus. The Egyptian leader- ship, thereby, made a successful step by calling upon the international

4 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships community to commit to its responsibilitlies toward maintaining in- ternational safety and security—a step that has been met with a rapid FÇkĀs˜saĂ°ĕsĀòs÷ÝÎÇ÷sĀ–òÎÁĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷iĀ»sFk°Ç£ĀĂÎĀìsĀ°Ç°Ă°F- tion of Washington negotiations that would have almost succeeded if Ethiopia had not announced its last-minute withdrawal.

Despite of the current accelerated pace of political interactions inside Sudan, this has not prevented the new Sudanese leadership from Ws°Ç£Ā –Ď»»ěĀ FėFòsĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ ÷°£Ç°›aFÇasĀ ΖĀ Fkkòs÷÷°Ç£Ā ìsĀ 2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀ Dam crisis transparently and courageously. This caused impactful ÷¬°–Ă÷Ā °ÇĀ 4ĎkFÇð÷Ā ÝÎ÷°Ă°ÎÇĀ ĂÎĀ WsaÎÁsĀ ÁÎòsĀ aΣǰğ°Ç£Ā ΖĀ ìsĀ ÷sò°ÎĎ÷Ā damages carried by the dam to Aswan in terms of security and wa- ter management.

Since the very beginning and in more than occasion, Ethiopia kept refusing to enable international consultancies to conduct the requi- site studies on the hydrological, environmental, economic and social impacts of the dam. Based on this, it was important for us to display ĕFò°ÎĎ÷ĀÝFÝsò÷ĀaÎĕsò°Ç£Āìs÷sĀF÷ÝsaĂ÷iĀF»»ĀΖĀė¬°a¬Ā¬FĕsĀaÎǛòÁskĀ the disastrous damages carried by the construction and operation of the Renaissance Dam to both Egypt and Sudan, if no agreement was reached—as planned by Ethiopia.

Though the reality of the current crisis does not allow plenty of room for optimism, given the intransigent approach of Ethiopia; it was also important to include in this publication papers proposing alternative solutions for joint management of the Nile waters. They are proposed in a way that serves the interests of the three countries; safeguards Egypt’s and Sudan’s water security; and allows Ethiopia’s to pursue its development ambitions.

By this, the vast array of papers included in this issue comprehensive- »ěĀFkkòs÷÷s÷ĀìsĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀaò°÷°÷Ā–òÎÁĀk°˜sòsÇĂĀÝsò÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs÷Ā and dimensions, leaving no room for ambiguities or doubts while in- terpreting the current setting and the motivations of particpant parties in such interactions. And this is done in a way that integrates with £ěÝĂð÷Ā aÎÇĂ°ÇĎÎĎ÷Ā FÇkĀ òs»sÇĂ»s÷÷Ā s˜ÎòĂ÷iĀ ÎĕsòĀ ìsĀ ěsFò÷iĀ ĂÎĀ ks–sÇkĀ its just cause of protecting the country’s established rights in the Nile water share.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 5

Founding Papers

The Blue Gold: Ethiopia’s Dam-Building Strategy and the Concept of Hydro-Hegemony Dr. Hamdy Abdel-Rahman The Basic Idea of Renaissance Dam and the Real Purpose of Construction Dr. Mohamed Nasr El-Din Allam Scenarios of Dealing with the Renaissance Dam Crisis in Light of the International Law Provisions Dr. Muhammed Sameh Amr The Blue Gold: Ethiopia’s Dam-Building Strategy and the Concept of Hydro-Hegemony

Dr. Hamdy Abdel-Rahman 0òΖs÷÷ÎòĀΖĀ0λ°Ă°aF»Ā4a°sÇasiĀDFěskĀ9Ç°ĕsò÷°ĂěĀFÇkĀ F°òÎĀ9Ç°ĕsò÷°Ăě

Ethiopia does not only seek through its dam-build- MELES ZENAWI AND THE MASSIVE ing strategy to achieve developmental objectives, but DAMS STRATEGY also to lay a new foundation for imposing hydro-he- With the start of Meles’s rule, Ethiopia began a steady gemony on its regional scope, by exchanging oil for movement toward constructing massive dams. The of- water. However, it is not a matter of secret; it is a ›a°F»ĀÇFòòFĂ°ĕsiĀFkÎÝĂskĀWěĀìsĀ£ÎĕsòÇÁsÇĂF»Ās»°ĂsĀĎÇ- bedrock principle for the governing elite in Addis ksòĀìsĀ°ÇžĎsÇasĀΖĀ&s»s÷ð÷Āksĕs»ÎÝÁsÇĂF»Āĕ°÷°ÎÇiĀėF÷Ā Ababa and its backing international powers. This that only through a strategy for building massive dams was openly expressed by a key adviser to the Late and by improving infrastructure to generate power, Prime Minister of Ethiopia Meles Zenawi as he put could root causes of poverty as well as factors of social it: ‘Ethiopia provides the power, Sudan grows the food and economic backwardness be decisively eliminated. and Egypt brings the cash’. One might add to this and Ethiopians believe that the Blue Nile—also known as according to the current context, ‘South Sudan pro- Abay in Amharic, meaning ‘father of all rivers’—is a vides the oil’. pure Ethiopian river. It was also claimed by some that the Amu Darya River, or Jayhun, mentioned in the Bi- ĂĀ °÷Ā ėÎòìĀ ÁsÇĂ°ÎÇ°Ç£Ā ìFĂĀ Ýλ°Ă°a°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ ble, is the river surrounding the Land of Kush, in both '°»sĀ°÷÷ĎsiĀF÷Āės»»ĀF÷ĀĎĂ°»°ğ°Ç£Āksĕs»ÎÝÁsÇĂF»ĀÝòÎ- Nubia and Ethiopia. This means that there was some jects for political purposes, is not a new issue; it is a ĎĂ°»°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀ ¬ò°÷Ă°FÇ°ĂěĀĂÎĀa»F°ÁĀì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā¬°÷ĂÎò°aĀ long-standing issue that can be dated back to the era rights to the Nile River waters. This movement was of Ethiopian Emperors who threatened to transform accompanied by increased investments in the agricul- £ěÝĂĀ°ÇĂÎĀFĀò°ĕsòWskĀFÇkĀĂÎĀ÷ĂÎÝĀ°Ă÷ĀžÎÎkãĀÇĀÁÎk- ture sector through granting expansion of agricultural sòÇĀĂ°Ás÷iĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4FĂs÷ĀĂò°skĀĂÎĀĎ÷sĀėFĂsòĀF÷ĀFĀ land leases to foreign investors—particularly the leases weapon to put pressure on Egypt’s will. On behalf which are often associated with the irrigation projects ΖĀì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā£ÎĕsòÇÁsÇĂiĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷Ā ĎòsFĎĀ planned during the dam-building phase. ΖĀ2sa»FÁFĂ°ÎÇĀà94 2áĀaÎÇkĎaĂskĀFĀ÷ĂĎkěĀ°ÇĀÕÊþ Ā WěĀė¬°a¬ĀìsĀ94 2Ā°ksÇĂ°›skĀĆĆĀ÷°Ăs÷Ā–ÎòĀÝòηsaĂ÷Ā It is well-known that since the fall of Mengistu Haile to be constructed on the Blue River; four of which &Fò°FÁĀ °ÇĀ ÕÊÊÕiĀ ìsòsĀ ¬F÷Ā WssÇĀ FĀ ÇÎĂ°asFW»sĀ ĂòsÇkĀ were possible sites on the main basin—including the toward the construction, or expansion, of dams and Border Dam whose name was changed later to the ¬ěkòÎÝÎėsòĀÝ»FÇĂ÷}°Ça»Ďk°Ç£Ā6sÇkF¬ÎiĀ6s¹sğuiĀ6FÇFĀ Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Beles and the series of Gilgel Gibe dams on the Omo River in south-west Ethiopia. An additional series of Ethiopian dams was later announced in the main De-

8 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships ĕs»ÎÝÁsÇĂĀ0»FÇĀ–ÎòĀċġġĆãĀ6¬sĀì°ÎÝ°FÇĀ£ÎĕsòÇÁsÇĂĀ ìsĀ'sί–ò°aFÇ°÷ÁĀÝòÎĕ°ksĀFĀÁF°ÇĀ–ÎaĎ÷Ā–ÎòĀìsĀ›£- carried out a systematic propaganda campaign to push ures of economic growth, not for human resources or °ÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā›ÇFÇa°F»Ā°Ç÷Ă°ĂĎĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀFÇkĀkÎÇÎò÷Ā–ÎòėFòkĀ political accountability and transparency—or even for to support these projects as being a fast way to achieve the sustainability of this growth. But massive dams Ethiopia’s growth and renaissance. pose many problems to the Ethiopian expertise, which shall be considered from a holistic, comprehensive per- Among the most prominent dams, of those declared in spective, rather than the narrow economic perspective. ìsĀċġġĆĀsĕs»ÎÝÁsÇĂĀ0»FÇiĀFòsĀ ¬sÁΣFĀBskFĀFÁ÷iĀ ė¬°a¬ĀaÎÇ÷°÷Ă÷ĀΖĀ›ĕsĀ÷ÁF»»ĀkFÁ÷ĀÎÇĀìsĀ »ĎsĀ'°»sĀ tributaries; and two dams on the Genale River between THE POLITICAL DIMENSIONS OF ETHI- Oromia and the Somali Region. That is in addition to OPIAN DAMS a future plan for building more dams. However, the Meles’s vision is of a strong Ethiopia, exporting hy- largest by far of all these dams is GERD on the Blue dro-power to neighboring countries in the east (Dji- Nile River, which was announced in 2010. Construc- WÎĎĂ°ĀFÇkĀ4ÎÁF»°FáiĀ÷ÎĎìĀà#sÇěFĀFÇkĀ9£FÇkFáiĀės÷ĂĀ tion works started in 2011 through governmental cam- (Sudan), and maybe north (Egypt). Addis expects to sell paigns for fundraising and selling bonds to the public, FĂĀ»sF÷ĂĀ ġġġĀÁs£FėFĂĂ÷ĀΖĀÝÎėsòĀĂÎĀòs£°ÎÇF»ĀÝFòĂÇsò÷Ā ÝFòĂ°aĎ»Fò»ěĀĂÎĀ£ÎĕsòÇÁsÇĂF»ĀΙa°F»÷ĀÁFÇěĀΖĀė¬ÎÁĀ in the next decade. No doubt that such a role in the were obliged to donate a month’s salary. Ethiopian vision, which represents a veritable hydrau- lic mission, would transform the world’s perception 6¬s÷sĀÁF÷÷°ĕsĀkFÁĀÝòηsaĂ÷ĀaÎÁsĀF÷ĀFÇĀF™òÁFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀ of Ethiopia from that of a poor country dependent on the governing elite’s objective and policies by which outside assistance, to that of a regionally leading state they attempt to extend unrivalled Ethiopian hegem- with resources that are valuable to the whole region. ony on both national and international levels. Huge Anyway, the Ethiopian philosophy of development is investments in power and irrigation projects by African based on two main dimensions, namely the massive intellectuals during the past decade stand as a mani- dam-building and huge investments in the agricultural festation of the African rise, given that Ethiopia is one ÷saĂÎòãĀ6¬°÷Ā òsžsaĂ÷Ā ÎÇĀ ìsĀ –FaĂĀ ìFĂĀ ì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā ÁF°ÇĀ of the fastest growing economies in the region. How- objective goes beyond addressing the needs of local ever, one shall monitor human losses and long-term aÎÁÁĎÇ°Ă°s÷Ā–ÎòĀÝÎėsòĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇiĀžÎÎkĀòs£Ď»FĂ°ÎÇiĀ environmental and social problems consequent to this or the provision of drinking water; it rather pursues strategy that received wide criticisms and warnings other objectives related to geostrategic reformulation from experts. Holders of the optimistic view among of the Horn of Africa region.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 9 As mentioned above, it is noted that the dam-building process associates with the issue of lands and foreign investment on a wider scale in the agricultural sector. The water collected in the reservoirs of the Gilgel Gibe Dams, for example, will be used for irrigation on a wide scale in the land nearby and in some down- stream areas, which will accordingly lead to recruiting foreign workers for cultivation. The main point here is that the Ethiopian government always has the capacity to move local inhabitants away from lands that it turns ĂÎĀïFĀaÎÁÁĎÇF»ĀÝĎW»°aĀòs÷ÎĎòasðãĀ6¬°÷Ā°÷ĀF»÷ÎĀòsžsaĂskĀ in the legal arrangement in Ethiopia that: ‘All land is still a property of the State, not a private property’, which ìsòsWěĀ·Ď÷Ă°›s÷ĀìsĀì°ÎÝ°FÇĀ£ÎĕsòÇÁsÇĂð÷Ā»Fò£sĀaÎÇ- ĂòλĀÎĕsòĀ»FÇkĀF»»ÎaFĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀĎĂ°»°ğFĂ°ÎÇãĀ

The other key driver for development that began dur- ing the rule of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, is to build are forced resettlements, decrease in quality of life and dams. It implied political and ideological, but not se- well-being, outbreak of waterborne diseases, loss of pro- cret, connotations. Two of the largest dams in Africa— ductive and income-generating lands, and heightened namely the Gilgel Gibe III Dam on the lower Ommo intergroup competitiveness on land, as well as other River; and the GERD on the Blue Nile, bordering the aĎ»ĂĎòF»ĀFÇkĀ¬sò°ĂF£sĀ»Î÷÷s÷ãĀ ĎĂiĀks÷Ý°ĂsĀìsĀks›Ç°ĂsĀWsÇ- Sudan—were built under the rule of Meles. The Gilgel s›a°F»Ā°ÁÝFaĂ÷ĀΖĀkFÁ÷Ā–ÎòĀ»ÎaF»Ā°Ç¬FW°ĂFÇĂ÷ĀÎÇĀìsĀ»ÎÇ£Ā °WsĀĀFÁĀėF÷Ā°Ç°Ă°F»»ěĀ›ÇFÇaskĀWěĀìsĀ@Îò»kĀ FǹĀ ĂsòÁiĀìsĀÁF°ÇĀFkĕFÇĂF£s÷Āė°»»ĀWsiĀ›ò÷ĂĀFÇkĀ–ÎòsÁÎ÷ĂiĀ–ÎòĀ and the European Investment Bank, but they were ìsĀWsÇs›ĂĀΖĀìsĀ4ĂFĂsĀ6òsF÷ĎòěûĀF÷ĀìsĀÝ»FÇÇskĀ÷ĎòÝ»Ď÷Ā superseded by the Chinese funder after both banks of power will be sold by the government. To sustain this withdrew for political and human rights considera- revenue, the neighboring countries’ continued buying of Ă°ÎÇ÷ãĀ6¬°÷ĀÁFěĀòsžsaĂĀÎÇĀìsĀ°ÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»ĀaÎÇasòÇ÷Ā electric power shall be ensured within coming decades. that the studies on social, technical and environmental The continuity of rainfall on the Ethiopian Highlands impacts of these dams are not complete. shall be also sustained at the same rates and without any reductions by time. However, both assumptions are indicative of a highly problematic. THE RISKS AND IMPACTS OF ETHIOPI- AN DAMS The top topic in global discussions is the damages Dam-building and land redistribution at the local com- caused by the Gilgel Gibe III Dam, ranked as the most munities are very costly processes. According to some aÎÇĂòÎĕsò÷°F»ĀkFÁĀ°ÇĀìsĀėÎò»kãĀĂĀ›ò÷ĂiĀìsĀ@Îò»kĀ FǹĀ estimates, the government planned for the resettle- FÇkĀ°ÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»ĀkÎÇÎò÷Āòs–Ď÷skĀĂÎĀ›ÇFÇasĀìsĀkFÁĀ ment of 1.5 million people in four regions: Gambella, because of absence of transparency. The building pro- –FòiĀìsĀ4ÎÁF»°Ā2s£°ÎÇĀFÇkĀ sÇ°÷¬FÇ£Ď»¯ĎÁĎğãĀ÷Ā as÷÷iĀìsÇiĀWs£FÇĀė°Ă¬ÎĎĂĀWs°Ç£ĀFĎìÎò°ğskĀWěĀìsĀÇ- ÷ĂFĂskĀWěĀ¬ĎÁFÇĀò°£¬Ă÷ĀÎò£FÇ°ğFĂ°ÎÇ÷iĀÁÎ÷ĂĀΖĀìs÷sĀ vironmental Protection Agency in Ethiopia. Since that displacements were not voluntary and some commu- time, there have been persistent complaints about the nities were forced to move from their villages. Based dam’s social and environmental impacts on down- on the fact that Ethiopia’s governmental strategy for stream areas, including the displacement and disloca- dam-building and land redistribution relies on top- tion of indigenous inhabitants. Another controversy down decisions and foreign funding, particularly from comes out about Lake Turkana located in Kenya since China; the strategy became free from pressures of local the Omo River—on which the Gilgel Gibe III Dam is accountability and it can act as politically independent. constructed—stands as the lake’s main tributary. Lake However, there is a possibility of tensions not only 6Ďò¹FÇFĀòs»°s÷ĀÎÇĀÊġâĀΖĀìsĀėFĂsòĀ°ÇžÎėĀ–òÎÁĀìsĀ among local and international communities, but also river that transfers freshwater and biological nutrients on the political level with neighboring countries. such as nitrogen to support the Lake. Moreover, Lake Turkana is the biggest permanent desert lake in the Local opinion in Ethiopia is divided on the need for world and it has three national parks constituting to- such huge debt-generating investment in energy struc- gether a ‘world heritage site’. Because of these concerns, ĂĎòsĀWsaFĎ÷siĀĎÇĂ°»ĀÇÎėiĀìsòsĀ°÷ĀÇÎĀ÷ϙa°sÇĂĀÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā the Friends of Lake Turkana (FoLT) appealed to the grid. In addition, in light of what is known worldwide Kenyan Courts against the project, but the case was about the impacts of huge dams, the social charges as Fk·ÎĎòÇskãĀ 6¬sĀ ÝòηsaĂĀ »Fa¹skĀ ÷ϙa°sÇĂĀ ÷Îa°F»Ā FÇkĀ well as intergroup tensions are always consequent to environmental assessment studies. Surprisingly, three dam-building processes. Among these consequences years after initiating the building process, a social and

10 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships environmental impact assessment was conducted on ė°Ă¬ĀFĀÝÎėsòĀ£sÇsòFĂ°ÎÇĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀΖĀÕĆġġĀÁs£FėFĂĂ÷Ā the dam; however it did not investigate the impact to be exported to neighboring countries. Ethiopia has ÎÇĀ#sÇěFÇĀWÎòksò÷ãĀ6¬sòsĀėsòsĀ°ÇksÝsÇksÇĂĀs˜ÎòĂ÷Ā been fully aware of Somalia’s economic dependence to assess this project by international donors, namely ÎÇĀìsĀ°ÇžÎė°Ç£Āò°ĕsòĀ–òÎÁĀì°ÎÝ°FÇĀ»FÇk÷iĀFÇkĀF÷ĀFĀ the European Investment Bank and the African De- òs÷Ď»ĂĀì°÷ĀÝĎ÷¬skĀì°ÎÝ°FĀĂÎĀÝĎĂĀ°ĂĀ°ÇĀÕʜüĀìFĂĀï4ÎÁF»°Ā velopment Bank. However, on the other hand, the economy cannot be independently viable because it ¬°Çs÷sĀ kÎÇÎò÷Ā ė¬ÎĀ F£òsskĀ ÎÇĀ ›ÇFÇa°Ç£Ā ìsĀ kFÁĀ is inextricably linked to Ethiopia’. did not conduct any independent environmental or social review studies. CONCLUSION aaÎòk°Ç£ĀĂÎĀìsĀÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā2°ĕsò÷Ā2sÝÎòĂĀ°ÇĀċġÕĆ}FĀ Apparently, Ethiopia has ignored the technical and scien- òsÝÎòĂĀWF÷skĀÎÇĀ÷a°sÇĂ°›aĀFÇkĀĂsa¬Ç°aF»Āsĕ°ksÇasĀĂF¹sÇĀ Ă°›aĀF÷ÝsaĂ÷Āòs»FĂskĀĂÎĀìsĀaÎÇ÷sçĎsÇas÷ĀΖĀkFÁ¯WĎ°»k°Ç£iĀ from decades of high-quality research by international leading to the collapse of some of these dams shortly af- and local experts on Lake Turkana and its surrounding ter their operation. An example of this is GERD where all area; the long-term damages of the Gilgel Gibe III Dam social, economic and environmental feasibility studies to the lake will be similar to what happened to the as well as safety studies have not been taken into con- Aral Sea in Central Asia, which is considered the worst sideration, posing thereby a threat to local communities sÇĕ°òÎÇÁsÇĂF»Āk°÷F÷ĂsòĀ°ÇĀìsĀėÎò»kãĀÇĀċġÕÊiĀìsĀ@Îò»kĀ within Ethiopia and at the two downstream countries. Heritage Committee warned that the dam had already There is seemingly some attempt by the ruling elite to heavily disrupted the lake’s seasonal patterns, and that ĎĂ°»°ğsĀì°÷ĀkFÁ¯WĎ°»k°Ç£Ā÷ĂòFĂs£ěĀĂÎĀsęĂsÇkĀ¬s£sÁÎÇěĀ ì°÷ĀėÎĎ»kĀFkĕsò÷s»ěĀF˜saĂĀìsĀ›÷¬ĀÝÎÝĎ»FĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀìsĀ over both domestic and regional levels. »°ĕs»°¬ÎÎk÷ĀΖĀ»ÎaF»Ā›÷¬°Ç£ĀaÎÁÁĎÇ°Ă°s÷ãĀ6¬Ď÷iĀ°ĂĀėF÷Ā decided that the Lake Turkana National Parks should be inscribed on the List of World Heritage in danger. The Ethiopian government has spread founding myths about the Ethiopian )ÇĀìsĀÎìsòĀ¬FÇkiĀ°ÇĀìsĀsFò»ěĀ›ò÷ĂĀksaFksĀΖĀìsĀċÕ÷ĂĀ nationalism to support this ideology. century, Ethiopia began planning for the development For instance, some exceptional Ethio- of its water resources, particularly the Juba/Shabelle pian concepts were widely propagat- basin which is jointly shared by Kenya and Somalia. ed, in addition to the historic Battle of No doubt that Ethiopia’s dam-building strategy and its Adwa that exalts the Ethiopian victo- capacity to develop the basin for hydro-power gener- òěĀÎĕsòĀĂF»°FÇ÷Ā°ÇĀՐÊþãĀ F÷skĀÎÇĀì°÷Ā FĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀ°òò°£FĂ°ÎÇĀÝĎòÝÎ÷s÷iĀėÎĎ»kĀFkĕsò÷s»ěĀF˜saĂĀ vision and on the transformations of Kenyan endeavors for water resources development, in international and regional power bal- addition to the damages caused to Somali water security. ances, Ethiopia went further by con- structing massive dams that exceed ì°ÎÝ°FĀ ¬F÷Ā ĂėÎĀ ÁF°ÇĀ k°˜sòsÇĂĀ Ý»FÇ÷Ā ė°Ă¬°ÇĀ ìsĀ its developmental need, ignoring the framework of the bigger basin of the two rivers: Juba damaging impacts of theses dams on FÇkĀ4¬FWs»»sãĀ6¬sĀ›ò÷ĂĀÝ»FÇĀ°÷Āï@FW°Ā4¬FWs»»sðĀFÇkĀìsĀ local communities and neighboring ÷saÎÇkĀ°÷ĀïsÇF»sĀFėFðiĀFÇkĀìsěĀėsòsĀ›ÇF»°ğskĀ°ÇĀ countries. 2005 and 2007 respectively. In addition, nine dams were planned to be constructed along Genale Dawa,

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 11 The Basic Idea of Renaissance Dam and the Real Purpose of Construction

Dr. Muhammed Nasr Aallam Former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation

On 2 April 2011, Ethiopia unilaterally laid the FÁiĀ FĂĀ FĀ ¬s°£¬ĂĀ ΖĀ Õ ġĀ ÁsĂsò÷Ā ĂÎĀ ÝòÎkĎasĀ œċœġĀ foundation for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance megawatts. Dam (GERD) on an international river-course, the Blue River, without prior notice to the two riparian Ethiopia took advantage of the state of instability in downstream countries: Egypt and Sudan. It was a Egypt since the dam had not been included in the k°òsaĂĀWòsFa¬ĀĂÎĀìsĀÕÊÊüĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ'FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā ÎÇĕsÇ- ì°ÎÝ°FÇĀ£ÎĕsòÇÁsÇĂð÷Ā›ĕs¯ěsFòĀÝ»FÇãĀÇĀFkk°Ă°ÎÇiĀ Ă°ÎÇĀÎÇĀìsĀ$FėĀΖĀ'Îǯ'Fĕ°£FĂ°ÎÇF»Ā9÷s÷ĀΖĀÇĂsò- the site of the Grand Millennium Dam or Project ÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā@FĂsòaÎĎò÷s÷ĀFÇkĀĂÎĀìsĀ–ÎòÁsòĀÕÊġċĀ6òsFĂěĀ X is very close to that proposed, until the end of between the three countries: Ethiopia, Sudan and ċġÕġiĀ–ÎòĀìsĀÊġ~ÁsĂsò~¬°£¬Ā ÎòksòĀFÁ}ė°Ă¬ĀFĀ Egypt—which provides that Ethiopia undertook not ÷ĂÎòF£sĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀΖĀÕ ãœĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀÎÇ»ěĀFÇkĀFĀ to construct any work across the Blue Nile that may Õ ġġ~Ás£FėFĂĂĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀΖĀs»saĂò°a°ĂěãĀ F˜saĂĀìsĀžÎėĀΖĀ°Ă÷ĀėFĂsò÷iĀsęasÝĂĀF–ĂsòĀFÝÝòÎĕF»Ā The overriding objective was to build the largest by the two downstream countries. possible dam.

Although the purpose of building the Renaissance THE BEGINNING OF THE CRISIS Dam is to generate power, Ethiopia does not have an In February 2011, after the 25 January events in electricity grid that can handle electricity transmis- Egypt, the Ethiopian newspaper Addis Fortune pub- sion from the dam to cities hundreds of kilometers lished the news of building Project X dam on the away. The Renaissance Dam consists of two, not one, »ĎsĀ'°»sĀĂÎĀ£sÇsòFĂsĀÝÎėsòãĀ)ÇĀĆġĀ&Fòa¬ĀċġÕÕiĀìsĀ kFÁ÷ûĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ°÷ĀFĀaÎÇaòsĂsĀkFÁĀ»ÎaFĂskĀFaòÎ÷÷ĀìsĀ Minister of Water, Irrigation and Electricity held a »ĎsĀ'°»sĀaÎĎò÷siĀė°Ă¬ĀFĀ¬s°£¬ĂĀΖĀ՜ ĀÁsĂsò÷ĀFÇkĀÕãĀ press conference to announce that the dam has a kilometers in length. In front of which lies a reser- ÷ĂÎòF£sĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀΖĀFWÎĎĂĀþġĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷Ā ĕΰòĀė°Ă¬ĀFĀ÷Ďò–FasĀFòsFĀΖĀÕÊġġĀ÷çĎFòsĀ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷ãĀ FÇkĀ°÷Ā»ÎaFĂskĀFĂĀ sÇ°÷¬FÇ£Ď»¯ĎÁĎğĀòs£°ÎÇiĀFWÎĎĂĀ The second is an embankment dam, at a height of ċġĀ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷Ā–òÎÁĀìsĀ4ĎkFÇs÷sĀWÎòksò÷ãĀ)ÇĀĆÕĀ œġĀÁsĂsò÷ĀFÇkĀ ãĀ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷Ā°ÇĀ»sÇ£Ă¬ãĀĂĀ°÷Ā»ÎaFĂskĀ &Fòa¬iĀFĀks÷°£Ç~FÇk~WĎ°»kĀaÎÇĂòFaĂĀĕF»ĎskĀFĂĀp Ā opposite the major dam, few kilometers away on billion, equal to half of the Ethiopian budget by the right side, to block the mouth of a side valley, then, was signed with the Italian Company Salini thus prevent water leakage through this valley. To Impregilo. Later on 2 April 2011, Ethiopian Prime the right side of the dam stand two power stations Minister Meles Zenawi laid the foundation for the with six turbines, while to the left lay two other dam, under the name of the Grand Millennium ÷ĂFĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀÝÎėsòskĀWěĀĂsÇĀòFÇa°÷ĀĂĎòW°Çs÷Āė°Ă¬ĀFĀĆüœ~

12 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships megawatt capacity for each. That is the total design dums signed between Egypt and Britain (on behalf aFÝFa°ĂěĀ–ÎòĀWÎìĀ÷ĂFĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā°÷ĀĎÝĀĂÎĀþġġġĀÁs£FėFĂĂ÷ãĀ ΖĀ9£FÇkFáĀ÷°ÇasĀF–ĂsòĀìsĀċĆĀ"Ď»ěĀ2sĕλĎĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀÕʜċĀ ĎÇĂ°»Ā"FÇĎFòěĀÕʜĆãĀ6¬s÷sĀÁsÁÎòFÇkĎÁ÷ĀsÇkÎò÷skĀ ìsĀÕÊċÊĀ6òsFĂěiĀFÇkĀaF»»skĀĎÝÎÇĀ£ěÝĂĀĂÎĀÝFòĂ°a°ÝFĂsĀ Breaching Earlier Conventions Regulat- °ÇĀ›ÇFÇa°Ç£ĀìsĀ)ėsÇĀF»»÷ĀFÁĀFĂĀìsĀÎĎĂ»sĂĀΖĀ$F¹sĀ ing Nile Waters Utilization 6FÇFãĀ6¬sĀkFÁĀF°Á÷ĀĂÎĀ£sÇsòFĂsĀÝÎėsòĀ–ÎòĀìsĀWsÇs›ĂĀ Ethiopia’s unilateral announcement of the construc- ΖĀ9£FÇkFĀFÇkĀ#sÇěFiĀFÇkĀĂÎĀòF°÷sĀìsĀ'°»sĀòsĕsÇĎsĀ tion of the Renaissance Dam, breached earlier inter- –ÎòĀìsĀWsÇs›ĂĀΖĀ£ěÝĂiĀìsĀÁF°ÇĀWsÇs›a°FòěĀ–òÎÁĀì°÷Ā national conventions that Ethiopia tries to nullify. The òsĕsÇĎsãĀ6¬sòsĀėsòsĀF»÷ÎĀΙa°F»ĀaÎÁÁĎÇ°aFĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀWs- ›ò÷ĂĀaÎÇĕsÇĂ°ÎÇĀėF÷ĀìsĀÕÊġċĀ6òsFĂěĀ÷°£ÇskĀWsĂėssÇĀ ĂėssÇĀ£ěÝĂĀFÇkĀ9£FÇkFĀ°ÇĀÕÊÊÕiĀsÇkÎò÷°Ç£ĀìsĀÕÊċÊĀ Britain (on behalf of Egypt and Sudan) and Ethiopia’s ĂòsFĂěãĀ6¬sěĀaF»»skĀĎÝÎÇĀ£ěÝĂĀĂÎĀF£òssĀÎÇĀ9£FÇkFð÷Ā Emperor Menelik II, in which he engaged himself extension project of the Owen Falls Dam through con- not to construct any work across the Blue Nile, Lake structing additional power station to generate power, Tana, or the Sobat, except in agreement with Britain and the project was eventually approved by Egypt. and the Anglo-Egyptian Sudan. )ÇĀÕĀ"Ď»ěĀÕÊÊĆiĀì°ÎÝ°FĀ÷°£ÇskĀFĀÁsÁÎòFÇkĎÁĀΖĀ £F°ÇiĀì°ÎÝ°FĀ÷°£ÇskĀìsĀÕÊċÊĀ6òsFĂěĀė°Ă¬ĀìsĀ°Çks- understanding with Egypt, by which the two coun- pendent Kingdom of Egypt, by then, and Britain (on Ăò°s÷ĀòsF™òÁĀìs°òĀaÎÁÁ°ĂÁsÇĂĀĂÎĀaÎÎÝsòFĂsĀĂÎĀòsF»°ğsĀ behalf of Sudan and the equatorial plateau countries: ·Î°ÇĂĀĎĂ°»°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀ'°»sĀėFĂsò÷iĀė°Ă¬ÎĎĂĀaFĎ÷°Ç£Ā 9£FÇkFiĀ6FÇğFÇ°FĀFÇkĀ #sÇěFáãĀ6¬sĀĂòsFĂěĀ aÎÇĂF°Ç÷Ā any harm to the interests of the other country. provision for Egypt’s and Sudan’s shares of the Nile waters, and states that no projects shall be construct- However, Ethiopia’s claims that the Renaissance Dam ed across the Nile, or its tributaries or lakes, except objective to generate power is to address the coun- in agreement with Egypt. The treaty was reactivated try’s shortfall in power, are false allegations for the FÇkĀ°ÁÝ»sÁsÇĂskiĀWěĀaλ»FWÎòFĂ°ÎÇĀė°Ă¬Ā9£FÇkFĀ°ÇĀ following reasons: the construction of a reservoir there during the period –òÎÁĀÕÊċÊĀĂÎĀÕʜĆûĀ°ÇĀìsĀsęĂsÇ÷°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀ)ėsÇ÷ĀF»»Ā 1. The Renaissance dam is a border dam at an area FÁĀ°ÇĀÕÊÊ ûĀFÇkĀWěĀF£òss°Ç£ĀĂÎĀWĎ°»kĀÎìsòĀkFÁ÷Ā with water level estimated 1000 meters lower that cause no harm to the Nile waters in 2010. than the capital Addis Abba. It stands hundreds of kilometers away from the nearest Ethiopian city. In addition to this, there were mutual memoran- Thus, this makes power transmission from the dam

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 13 °ÇĂÎĀìsĀaÎĎÇĂòěĀĕsòěĀk°™aĎ»ĂiĀÎÇ»ěĀ°ÇĀĕsòěĀ»°Á°ĂskĀ 2. Constructing this dam will be followed by execut- quantities to near locations to the dam, i.e. near ing other large dam projects across the Blue Nile, °ÇkĎ÷Ăò°F»ĀğÎÇs÷ãĀ the Sobat and Atbarah to gain full control over the Ethiopian Plateau waters. 2. 6¬sĀ»ÎaF»Ās»saĂò°a°ĂěĀ£ò°kĀ°÷Ā»Fò£s»ěĀ÷ĎW÷°k°ğskĀWěĀ the government, which makes domestic electricity ĆãĀ Another aim of constructing the Renaissance Dam consumption non-economic, leaving the country is to force Egypt and Sudan to join the Entebbe unable to reimburse the dam construction loans. Agreement for allocating their share of the Nile waters with other Nile Basin countries. ĆãĀIn Ethiopia, there are both fully–constructed and under construction small dams to generate electric- ãĀ Harm caused by the Renaissance Dam will be a ity to supply cities and built-up areas. Also, there aÎÇ÷sçĎsÇasĀΖĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ›»»°Ç£ĀÝòÎas÷÷iĀ–λ»ÎėskĀ are the massive Gilgel Gibe Dams—Gibe I, Gibe II WěĀòsaĎòòsÇĂĀ›»»°Ç£÷ĀF–ĂsòĀÝsò°Îk÷ĀΖĀkòÎĎ£¬ĂĀFÇkĀĂÎĀ and Gibe III—to serve domestic consumption and compensate permanent losses of water (by evapo- exports to Kenya and Djibouti, in addition to other ration or leakage) from the dam. Accordingly, until under–construction dams across the Sobat to serve ì°ÎÝ°FĀ›Ç°÷¬s÷Āìs°òĀòs¯›»»Ā–ÎòĀìsĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀ exports to South Sudan. kFÁiĀì°÷Āė°»»Āòs÷Ď»ĂĀ°ÇĀ£ěÝĂĀWs°Ç£ĀĎÇFW»sĀĂÎĀ›»»Ā the Aswan High Dam, leaving it empty for 12 years. ãĀThe site of the Renaissance Dam necessitates ex- porting most of its electrical power output to Sudan 5. As a result of the Renaissance Dam construction, FÇkĀ£ěÝĂiĀFÇkĀìsÇĀĂÎĀĎòÎÝsiĀF÷ĀaÎǛòÁskĀWěĀ the decrease in Egypt’s water quota will have direct European studies. impacts, including an increase of fallow areas in agricultural lands; drop in groundwater levels; in- 5. The Ethiopian plan includes the construction of aòsF÷sĀΖĀ÷F»ĂėFĂsòĀ°ÇĂòĎ÷°ÎÇĀFÇkĀ»FÇkĀ÷F»°Ç°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀ°ÇĀ other three large dams across the Blue Nile, with the Delta; erosion of resources that supply drinking an aim to generate power for exports and to bring water installations and factories lying across the Nile in foreign currency through exporting their output and its tributaries; increase of pollution rates in the to Sudan and Egypt, and further to Europe. Nile waters, canals, drains, and northern lakes; as ės»»ĀF÷ĀÎìsòĀìòsFĂ÷ĀĂÎĀ›÷¬sò°s÷ĀFÇkĀò°ĕsòĀÇFĕ°£FĂ°ÎÇã þãĀEgypt is the only country with a profound electric- ity grid that can accommodate any quantities of þãĀ Sudan shall announce its abidance by the histor- electricity produced by these dams. ic allocations/shares, and any surrender of shares shall be determined in agreement with Egypt, as 7. If Ethiopia failed to use the dam’s electrical output ÝòÎĕ°kskĀĎÇksòĀìsĀÕʜÊĀ'°»sĀ@FĂsò÷Ā£òssÁsÇĂĀ for exports and domestic consumption, most of ìFĂĀWÎìĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷ĀsçĎF»»ěĀ÷¬FòsĀFÇěĀks›a°Ă÷Ā°ÇĀ the dam’s turbine tunnels should be closed. As a the Nile revenues. result, the dam’s water level would rise, pushing the water to escape like waterfalls from the dam’s 7. The Renaissance Dam encourages other Nile basin upper outlets for long periods of time that may countries to execute similar dam projects, and Su- F˜saĂĀìsĀ÷F–sĂěĀΖĀ÷ĂòĎaĂĎòs÷ĀFÇkĀ»sFkĀĂÎĀ¬sFĕěĀ dan to expand in agriculture on the Blue Nile waters. economic and political losses, in addition to hold- ing back future dam projects across the Blue Nile. 8. Ethiopia can use the Renaissance Dam waters to cause harm to Egypt and Sudan by passing large çĎFÇĂ°Ă°s÷ĀΖĀėFĂsòĀkĎò°Ç£Ā¬°£¬ĀžÎÎk÷iĀ»sFk°Ç£ĀĂÎĀ CONSEQUENCES OF THE RENAIS- disastrous consequences, especially on Sudan. SANCE DAM On the other hand, Ethiopia can also pass limited Ethiopia’s ability to go ahead with the construction work quantities of water. of the Renaissance Dam, in accordance with its scheme, ¬F÷ĀÁFÇěĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀaÎÇ÷sçĎsÇas÷iĀFÁÎÇ£Āė¬°a¬ĀFòshĀ ÊãĀ s÷F»°Ç°ğ°Ç£ĀėFĂsòĀ°÷ĀÇÎĂĀ÷ϙa°sÇĂĀĂÎĀaÎĕsòĀìsĀ potential shortfall in water shares as a result of 1. The Renaissance Dam aims to control Nile wa- the Renaissance Dam construction. The process ters and its storage capacity sounds unreasonable, ΖĀėFĂsòĀks÷F»°Ç°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀ°÷ĀsęÝsÇ÷°ĕsĀFÇkĀÝòÎĕ°ks÷Ā F÷Āksa»FòskĀWěĀìsĀ94Ā ÎÇ£òs÷÷ãĀĂĀF»÷ÎĀFĂĂsÁÝĂ÷Ā agricultural uses with limited and uneconom- to diminish or eliminate the role of Aswan High ic quantities. It is only suitable for water supply, FÁiĀė¬°a¬ĀFkĕsò÷s»ěĀF˜saĂ÷ĀsaÎÇÎÁ°aiĀÝλ°Ă°aF»iĀ s÷Ýsa°F»»ěĀĂÎĀ aÎF÷ĂF»Ā a°Ă°s÷ãĀ@FĂsòĀ òFĂ°ÎÇF»°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀ social and security situations in Egypt and limits also demonstrates limited results which are barely the country’s regional role and overall capacity. enough to cover the current shortfall in natural water resources, owing to population growth.

14 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships From all of the above, it can be seen the multiple adverse consequences if Ethiopia continued to follow this unilateral path, especially after the is- suance of the International Experts ÎÁÁ°ĂĂssĀ2sÝÎòĂĀ°ÇĀċġÕĆãĀ6¬sĀòsÝÎòĂĀ sÁݬF÷°ğskĀ »°Á°ĂFĂ°ÎÇĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ aĎòòsÇĂĀ studies and structural designs pre- pared for the dam project; they are just preliminary studies, falling short of meeting the required standards for studying a dam of this scale. The pro- ject’s studies do not take into consid- eration the impact of having joints or cracks below the dam, in addition to the absence of an operational policy. The environmental studies, as well, only focused on the Ethiopian side, at the expense of the Egyptian and Suda- nese sides.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 15 Scenarios of Dealing with the Renaissance Dam Crisis in Light of the International Law Provisions

Dr. Muhammed Sameh Amr 0òΖs÷÷ÎòĀFÇkĀsFkĀΖĀìsĀÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā$FėĀsÝFòĂÁsÇĂiĀFaĎ»ĂěĀΖĀ$FėiĀ F°òÎĀ9Ç°ĕsò÷°Ăě

Since 2011, Ethiopia began the construction of a But this theory was totally rejected by international new dam, namely the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance jurists, and countries ruled it out of their global prac- Dam (GERD), over the Blue Nile, without paying min- tices. That is because applying this theory will make imum consideration to the rules of international law upstream countries cause substantial harm to down- or to practices followed by international institutions stream countries, thereby threatening international with regard to constructing projects over international ÝsFasĀFÇkĀ÷saĎò°ĂěĀ°ÇĀk°˜sòsÇĂĀFòsF÷ĀėÎò»kė°ksĀė°Ă¬Ā rivers. Ethiopia did not care to give prior notice to international rivers running through their territories. both Egypt and Sudan, and refrained from providing them with information and data required to conduct Although having its right in the Nile waters empha- necessary assessment for any probable damages from ÷°ğskĀWěĀ°ÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»ĀaÎÇĕsÇĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀF÷Āės»»ĀF÷ĀFaçĎ°ò- constructing and operating the dam. In addition, Ethi- ing a stable legal status that cannot be questioned or opia showed no respect to the rules of international diluted, Egypt gave advantage to the concept of ‘unity law on the need for conducting prior environmental of interests’ and took into account the rights of the Nile assessment studies of such huge project that the coun- basin inhabitants in development, as long as this does try has already began to implement. It also did not not cause any substantial harm to Egypt’s water rights. conduct studies for ensuring the safety and security Hence, since 2011, Egypt agreed to participate in the of the body of the dam, whether during the construc- work of the Tripartite Technical Committee, composed tion phase or after the operation phase. Continuing of experts from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, to examine to act unilaterally, Ethiopia has been modifying the all available data related to the dam project and assess dam’s storage capacity from time to time, until the its potential impact. The work of the committee con- dam became the biggest of its kind to generate power cluded with a report, which explicitly stated that the in the African continent. ÝòÎaskĎòs÷ĀìFĂĀì°ÎÝ°FĀ–λ»ÎėskĀėsòsĀ°Ç÷ϙa°sÇĂĀFÇkĀ did not address all particular aspects to this huge water In its unilateral act, Ethiopia has adopted an aban- project. The report of the Tripartite Committee found doned theory of international jurisprudence on the that the environmental assessment study, conducted uses of international rivers, known as the theory of by Ethiopia, did not address the project impacts on ‘absolute regional sovereignty’. The theory allows water quantities or qualities. As for safety and security upstream countries a free hand to arbitrarily man- considerations for the dam’s body, the Committee came age international river waters that run through their to conclude that a number of measures, actions and en- territories, without taking to consideration the rights gineering standards shall be set forth to ensure that the of other countries that share the same river waters. dam would not collapse in future. Thus, the Technical

16 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships Committee recommended the conduct of more studies entitled the Declaration of Principles, in 2015. The doc- to preserve the rights of all Nile riparian countries. ument included some standards and benchmarks that can constitute grounds for reaching a comprehensive Notwithstanding the above and in the face of Ethi- FÇkĀ°ÇĂs£òF»ĀF£òssÁsÇĂiĀWs–ÎòsĀì°ÎÝ°FĀ÷ĂFòĂ÷Ā›»»°Ç£Ā opia’s insistence on disregarding the report by the the reservoir located behind the dam. Tripartite Technical Committee and its recommen- dations, Egypt strived to implement the committee’s Building on the Declaration of Principles, Egypt recommendations by selecting an international con- strived to implement the agreement’s provisions and ÷Ď»ĂFÇaěĀ ΙasĀ ĂÎĀ aÎÇkĎaĂĀ ksĂF°»skĀ ÷ĂĎk°s÷Ā ÎÇĀ ìsĀ it was agreed to set up a committee of independent kFÁð÷Ā°ÁÝFaĂĀÎÇĀìsĀ'°»sĀžÎėiĀF÷Āės»»ĀF÷ĀìsĀÝòÎ- national technical experts from the three countries, ject’s environmental, economic and social impacts called the Tripartite Technical Committee. There were ÎÇĀ£ěÝĂĀFÇkĀ4ĎkFÇãĀ ĎĂĀìs÷sĀs˜ÎòĂ÷Āě°s»kskĀÇÎÇsĀ lengthy and ongoing negotiations on both technical of the results sought from taking such step, after the and political levels, with the participation of Ministers aÎÇ÷Ď»ĂFÇaěĀΙasĀFÇÇÎĎÇaskĀė°Ă¬kòFėF»Ā–òÎÁĀìsĀ of Water Resources and Irrigation of Egypt, Sudan Á°÷÷°ÎÇĀF÷÷°£ÇskĀĂÎĀ°ĂĀkĎsĀĂÎĀFĀ»Fa¹ĀΖĀ÷ϙa°sÇĂĀ°Ç- and Ethiopia in several meetings over a four–year formation to conduct the required studies. period, to reach a technical agreement that serves as a pillar for a comprehensive and integral agreement The main concern of Egypt’s political leadership is signed by the three countries in accordance with the to deepen cooperation with Ethiopia and overcome Declaration of Principles. Over such a long period, barriers hindering the reach of a tripartite agreement during which Ethiopia did not halt the construction that accords with established rules and principles of works of the dam, Egypt adopted a policy of negoti- international law. In keeping with that concern, the FĂ°ÎÇĀ÷¬Îė°Ç£ĀÁFę°ÁĎÁĀžsę°W°»°ĂěiĀė¬°»sĀĂF¹°Ç£Ā°ÇĂÎĀ competent authorities in Egypt followed a political account all Ethiopian concerns. The Egyptian tech- course that promotes dialogue and negotiations to- Ç°aF»ĀĂsFÁĀΘsòskĀF»»ĀÝÎ÷÷°W»sĀ÷λĎĂ°ÎÇ÷iĀÇÎĀÁFĂĂsòĀ ward reaching a lasting, evidence-based agreement ¬ÎėĀk°™aĎ»ĂĀÎòĀaÎÁÝ»°aFĂskĀìsěĀFòsãĀBsĂĀìs÷sĀs˜ÎòĂ÷Ā mutually, that is acceptable to the three countries. did not lead to any agreement on the technical level, Based on such approach that guarantees dialogue and and accordingly it was not possible to reach an inter- ÝĎò÷Ďs÷Āk°Ý»ÎÁFĂ°aĀFÇkĀÝsFas–Ď»ĀaÎǞ°aĂĀòs÷λĎĂ°ÎÇĀ ÇFĂ°ÎÇF»ĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀìFĂĀòs£Ď»FĂs÷ĀìsĀkFÁð÷Ā›»»°Ç£iĀ among the three countries in accordance with the operation and management processes as set forth in 9Ç°ĂskĀ'FĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀÝò°Ça°Ý»s÷iĀ£ěÝĂĀF£òsskĀĂÎĀ÷°£ÇĀFÇĀ the Declaration of Principles. international agreement with Sudan and Ethiopia,

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 17 In an attempt to reach agreement with Sudan and process. A binding mechanism was lastly developed Ethiopia in accordance with the Declaration of Prin- –ÎòĀaÎǞ°aĂĀòs÷λĎĂ°ÎÇĀ°ÇĀaF÷sĀΖĀFĀk°÷ÝĎĂsĀkĎò°Ç£ĀìsĀ ciples, Egypt put forward a proposed agreement to agreement interpretation or implementation. be mutually discussed by the three countries. The ÝòÎÝÎ÷F»ĀòsžsaĂskĀìsĀėÎò¹ĀFÇkĀk°÷aĎ÷÷°ÎÇ÷ĀΖĀìsĀ The terms of agreement were formulated in a fair and Tripartite Technical Committee on regulating the res- balanced way that serves the interest of all riparian sòĕΰòð÷Ā›ò÷ĂĀ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀìsĀkFÁð÷ĀÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇĀÝòÎas÷÷ãĀ countries, ensures the achievement of Ethiopia’s stat- However, this attempt was rejected by Ethiopia, leav- ed objective of constructing the dam (i.e. to generate °Ç£ĀFĀė°ksÇ°Ç£Ā£FÝĀWsĂėssÇĀìsĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷ðĀk°˜sòsÇĂĀ power as part of Ethiopia’s development plan), and al- positions. Ethiopia, instead, insisted on drafting a new leviates any substantial damage that might be caused convention that needs to be renegotiated from scratch. to Egypt and Sudan from operating the dam. Despite all that, Ethiopia, as always, announced a last-minute This put Egypt in an extremely complicated situation, in addition to the ongoing declarations by Ethiopia over the forthcoming completion of the dam’s con- ÷ĂòĎaĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀ°Ă÷ĀksĂsòÁ°ÇFĂ°ÎÇĀĂÎĀWs£°ÇĀ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀ reservoir. However, to keep consistent with the dip- lomatic and political approach it has adhered to since °ÇasÝĂ°ÎÇiĀ£ěÝĂĀaF»»skĀĎÝÎÇĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀFÇkĀ the World Bank to mediate, and foster, future rounds of negotiations in order to terminate any attempt of procrastination by Ethiopia.

But, no agreement was reached and Ethiopia insisted on moving forward unilaterally disregarding the rules of international law, and thereby a threat was posed to international peace and security, and to stabili- ty in the Eastern African Region. Given that impor- ĂFÇasĀFÇkĀ÷sÇ÷°Ă°ĕ°ĂěĀΖĀìsĀ°÷÷ĎsiĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷Ā Administration as well as the World Bank (with its successful experience in reaching similar agreements signed between countries sharing other international rivers), accepted to host the meetings that started in 'ÎĕsÁWsòĀċġÕÊiĀė°Ă¬ĀìsĀÝFòĂ°a°ÝFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀaÎÇasòÇskĀ ministers from the three countries. It was agreed to ›ÇF»°ğsĀÇs£ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀFÇkĀòsFa¬ĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀÎĕsòĀFĀÝs- riod of no more than four months.

Indeed, the negotiations continued until the end of February 2020 and as a result of the technical discus- ÷°ÎÇ÷Ā¬s»kĀFÁÎÇ£ĀΙa°F»÷Ā–òÎÁĀìsĀìòssĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷iĀ some technical standards were drafted to regulate ėFĂsòĀ÷ĂÎòF£sĀ°ÇĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀìòÎĎ£¬ÎĎĂĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£Ā period, alleviating any substantial damage that might be caused to Egypt and Sudan during that period. The draft agreement contained particular rules for the dam’s management and operation, including withdrawal from participating in a meeting called for rules for exchanging information and data among WěĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀĂÎĀ›ÇF»°ğsĀìsĀF£òssÁsÇĂiĀÝòsÝFò- the three countries, and for establishing an institu- ing to get it signed by the three leaders of countries tional, technical and political, structure capable of during March 2020. dealing with new developments and changes that probably emerge from environmental changes, thus Despite of this sudden action by Ethiopia, which did ÁFěĀÇs£FĂ°ĕs»ěĀF˜saĂĀìsĀ'°»sĀėFĂsòĀòs÷ÎĎòas÷ĀaFĎ÷°Ç£Ā not conform to the principle of good faith in nego- drought conditions, and even prolonged droughts. Ă°FĂ°ÎÇ÷iĀ£ěÝĂĀėF÷Ā¹ssÇĀĂÎĀaÎǛòÁĀ°Ă÷ĀFÝÝòÎĕF»ĀWěĀ More rules and principles were also set forth to gov- initialing the agreement. Strangely enough, Ethiopia ern the conduct of future water projects and environ- ·Ď÷Ă°›skĀ °Ă÷Ā òs·saĂ°ÎÇĀ ĂÎĀ ÷°£ÇĀ ìsĀ F»òsFkě~›ÇF»°ğskĀ mental assessment studies, and to ensure the safety agreement by reference to having domestic political and security of the dam’s body after the operation conditions. The country, instead, extended new invi-

18 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships tation for another rounds of negotiations, but only and rules set out in the Declaration of Principles and FÁÎÇ£Ā Ιa°F»÷Ā –òÎÁĀìsĀìòssĀ aÎĎÇĂò°s÷iĀ ÁsFÇ°Ç£Ā the rules of international law on the uses of interna- that Ethiopia rejects mediation and patronage of the tional rivers. And a special mention to the Declaration 9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀFÇkĀìsĀ@Îò»kĀ FǹãĀ of Principles, signed by the three leaders of countries, which expressly provides that a comprehensive agree- But the matter did not end there, as Ethiopia declared ment shall be reached, with an integrated regulation °Ă÷ĀksĂsòÁ°ÇFĂ°ÎÇĀĂÎĀ÷ĂFòĂĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ›»»°Ç£ĀΖĀìsĀòs÷sò- ĂÎĀ£ÎĕsòÇĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ›»»°Ç£ĀF÷Āės»»ĀF÷ĀìsĀÁFÇF£sÁsÇĂĀ voir located behind the dam. It also tried to impose and operation processes of the dam, before proceed- on Egypt and Sudan a unilaterally drafted agreement °Ç£ĀĂÎĀ›»»ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀWs¬°ÇkĀìsĀkFÁãĀ°ĕsÇĀ÷Ďa¬Ā by Ethiopia to regulate the procedure, only during condition that Ethiopia imposed on both Egypt and this phase, without including any rules for the future Sudan, a question was raised about the possible management and operation of the dam. No doubt alternatives whereby Egypt can contain emerging crisis from Ethiopia’s taking unilateral action and to preserve its water rights.

In an attempt to answer this question, we believe that a political and diplomatic action should be taken, during the current period, on the following two levels:

Firstly:Ā6ÎĀaÎÇĂ°ÇĎsĀĂÎĀ÷ss¹Āė°Ă¬ĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷Ā kÁ°Ç°÷ĂòFĂ°ÎÇĀ ›ÇF»°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ kòF–ĂĀ F£òssÁsÇĂĀ òsFa¬skĀWěĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀÁsk°FĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀĎÇksòĀ ìsĀFĎ÷Ý°as÷ĀΖĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀFÇkĀìsĀ@Îò»kĀ FǹiĀ with the consideration that it is an integrated agree- ment balancing the interest of the three countries.

Secondly: To seek with the international communi- ty, in a timely manner, review of all aspects of the kòF–ĂĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀÝòsÝFòskĀWěĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀFÇkĀ the World Bank, with a special focus on the positive F÷ÝsaĂ÷Ā FÇkĀ WsÇs›Ă÷Ā ìFĂĀ aFÇĀ WsĀ Fa¬°sĕskĀ –ÎòĀ ìsĀ three countries after signing the agreement; such as maintaining stability in the Eastern African Region. In addition, the international community, as well as countries with direct impact or economically-linked countries to Ethiopia, shall be called upon to urge Ethiopia to accept and sign the agreement.

However, what alternatives would be in hand of decision makers if the United States and the World Bank could not resume their work and mediation, or if the international community’s endeavors failed to urge Ethiopia to change its stance of re- jection to sign the agreement, before starting to ÃLLTHERESERVOIRBEHINDTHEDAM  that Ethiopia’s taking unilateral action—which is the same conduct it actively sought to adopt since the With the consideration of this case, Egypt would be dam construction in 2011—constitutes a breach of wa- run out of all steps and actions that could be taken ter and food security in Egypt where more than one to settle the dispute with Ethiopia, after multiple at- hundred million people are dependent on the Nile tempts to reach agreement—whether through direct waters, as their one and only water resource. Çs£ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā ÎòĀ ìòÎĎ£¬Ā Ásk°FĂ°ÎÇĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ 9Ç°ĂskĀ States and the World Bank. Thus, as a continuation The Renaissance Dam issue reached a deadlock due of taking the same political approach adopted by the to Ethiopia’s stance of rejection to all diplomatic and Egyptian diplomacy to deal with this vital issue and political attempts by Egypt over past years, especially °ÇĀòs÷ÝsaĂĀ–ÎòĀìsĀÝò°Ça°Ý»s÷ĀΖĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ'FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā during the past four months, to reach a fair and bal- Charter; no choice would be left before Egypt, during anced agreement in accordance with the provisions this phase, but to resort to the Security Council and

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 19 submit the dispute on the grounds that Ethiopia’s unilateral action causes substantial harm to Egypt’s water rights, and thus this could have a direct negative impact on water and food security in Egypt. The uni- lateral action by Ethiopia in this regard is considered a threat to international safety and security as well. In response to this situation, the Security Council, which is the primarily responsible for maintaining interna- tional safety and security, has the right to take some measures and actions as detailed in the provisions ΖĀ ¬FÝĂsò÷ĀþĀFÇkĀüĀΖĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ'FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā ¬FòĂsòã

However, taking into account all political considera- Ă°ÎÇ÷ĀìFĂĀÁFěĀF˜saĂĀ¬ÎėĀìsĀ4saĎò°ĂěĀ ÎĎÇa°»ĀĂF¹s÷Ā decisions, the Council—as a matter of law and as ÝòÎĕ°kskĀWěĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ'FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā ¬FòĂsò}°÷ĀsÇĂ°Ă»skĀ to take some measures and actions to address any serious negative consequences that could arise if ì°ÎÝ°FiĀĎÇ°»FĂsòF»»ěiĀ÷ĂFòĂskĀ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀWs- fore reaching agreement with Egypt and Sudan. The options conferred upon the Council are as follows:

1. The Security Council shall call upon the parties to settle their dispute by negotiation, enquiry, media- tion, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, re- sort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other ÝsFas–Ď»ĀÁsFÇ÷ĀΖĀìs°òĀÎėÇĀa¬Î°asãĀàòĂ°a»sĀĆĆÿċáã

2. The Security Council may recommend appropri- ate procedures or methods of adjustment, while taking into consideration any procedures for the settlement of the dispute, which have already been FkÎÝĂskĀWěĀìsĀÝFòĂ°s÷ĀàòĂ°a»sĀĆþáã

ĆãĀIn case Ethiopia failed to comply with the recom- mendations provided by the Security Council and continued to act unilaterally, leading to a breach of the international peace and security; the Security Council shall decide what enforcement measures, under legally binding resolutions, shall be taken to prevent an aggravation of the situation. For exam- Ý»siĀaF»»°Ç£ĀĎÝÎÇĀì°ÎÝ°FĀĂÎĀ¬F»ĂĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀ›»»°Ç£Ā as well as the operation process until it reaches an F£òssÁsÇĂĀė°Ă¬Ā£ěÝĂĀFÇkĀ4ĎkFÇĀàòĂ°a»sĀĆÊáãĀ

ãĀIn order to prevent an aggravation of the situation, the Security Council may call upon the parties con- cerned to comply with such provisional measures F÷Ā°ĂĀkssÁ÷ĀÇsas÷÷FòěĀÎòĀks÷°òFW»sĀàòĂ°a»sĀ ġáã

5. The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be em-

20 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships Ý»ÎěskĀĂÎĀ£°ĕsĀs˜saĂĀĂÎĀ°Ă÷Āksa°÷°ÎÇ÷iĀ¹ÇÎė°Ç£ĀìFĂĀ the Council resolutions regarding this issue are of a binding nature. These measures may include com- plete or partial interruption of economic relations FÇkĀÎìsòĀÁsFÇ÷ĀΖĀaÎÁÁĎÇ°aFĂ°ÎÇãĀàòĂ°a»sĀ Õáã

þãĀShould the Security Council consider that measures not involving the use of armed force would be in- adequate or have proved to be inadequate, it may take measures involving the use of armed force to maintain or restore international peace and securi- ty, knowing that the Council resolutions regarding ì°÷Ā°÷÷ĎsĀFòsĀΖĀFĀW°Çk°Ç£ĀÇFĂĎòsãĀàòĂ°a»sĀ ċáã

ì°ÎÝ°Fð÷ĀĎÇ°»FĂsòF»ĀFaĂ°ÎÇĀĂÎĀWs£°ÇĀ›»»°Ç£Ā the reservoir might cause direct negative consequences on the lives of Egyptian and Sudanese peoples and their right to exist. On the other hand, operating the dam, without minimum guarantees for these countries against risks, can de- stroy everything if the dam collapsed, either partially or completely. Thus, in such case, the Security Council is not strictly adhered to follow the previously mentioned measures in a consecutive ÎòksòiĀĎÇksòĀòĂ°a»s÷Āà ÕáĀFÇkĀà ċáĀΖĀìsĀ ¬FòĂsò}ė¬sòsWěĀìsĀ ÎĎÇa°»Ā›ò÷ĂĀĂF¹s÷Ā measures not involving the use of armed force, but if the target is not met, it may take action by armed force. The Council is entirely free to decide what measures are to be employed according to the cir- cumstances of the case, thus it may take action by armed force directly without being preceded by any other measures. In general, it must be noted that, as es- tablished in international jurisprudence, ìsĀòsaÎ£Ç°Ă°ÎÇĀ°ÇĀìsĀ9'Ā ¬FòĂsòĀΖĀìsĀ Security Council’s right to take the above mentioned enforcement measures shall not prevent the States subject to aggres- sion from their right of self-defence with the Council’s permission, under Article (51) of the Charter. That is until the Secu- rity Council takes necessary measures to maintain or restore international peace and security.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 21

Reality of the Negotiations Path

Egypt’s Stance Toward the Developments of GERD Negotiations Gen. Mohamed Ibrahim Eldewery Revisiting Sudan’s Nile position Mostafa Ahmady How Does Ethiopia Think About the Renaissance Dam? Hani Raslan Does Ethiopia Want to Resolve the Renaissance Dam Crisis? Dr. Mohamed Nasr El-Din Allam Egypt’s Stance Toward the Developments of GERD Negotiations

Gen. Mohamed Ibrahim Eldewery Deputy General Manager of the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies

For nine years in a row, Egypt has openly and con- F»»ĀÝFòĂ°s÷ĀĂÎĀΘsòĀsFa¬ĀÎìsòĀ÷ÎÁsĀžsę°W°»°ĂěĀ°ÇĀÎò- structively engaged in negotiations on the Grand Ethi- der to bring negotiations to a successful conclusion. opian Renaissance Dam (GERD) with both Ethiopia ãĀEgypt deals seriously and objectively with the crisis and Sudan, and then with the international mediation and its development; it has formulated a higher-level òsasÇĂ»ěĀΘsòskĀWěĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀFÇkĀìsĀ@Îò»kĀ committee for negotiations composed of represent- Bank. Despite that positive stance taken by the Egyptian atives of all ministries and institutions involved in policy, successive governments of Ethiopia maintained a the Nile water issue, and also submitted all needed position that combines intransigence with prevarication. F™òÁFĂ°ĕsĀÝòÎÝÎ÷F»÷ĀĂÎĀÁÎĕsĀÇs£ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā–ÎòėFòkãĀ 6¬°÷Ā·Ď÷Ă°›s÷Āė¬ěĀ÷Ďa¬Ā»FWÎò°ÎĎ÷ĀÇs£ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā¬FĕsĀ 5. Egypt’s stance toward the GERD issue is based on three –F°»skiĀĎÇĂ°»ĀÇÎėiĀĂÎĀòsFa¬ĀFĀ›ÇF»ĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀòs£Ď»FĂ°Ç£Ā ÁF°ÇĀÝò°Ça°Ý»s÷hĀ›ò÷ĂiĀìsĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇasĀΖĀFa¬°sĕ°Ç£Ā ìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀkFÁ. the interest of all three parties; second, the river is a pathway for cooperation and development, not a THE SEVEN DETERMINANTS OF ›s»kĀΖĀaÎǞ°aĂûĀFÇkĀì°òkiĀìsĀòsaÎ£Ç°Ă°ÎÇĀΖĀì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā EGYPT’S STANCE right in development, without prejudice to Egypt’s legally-protected water interests and rights under in- There are a set of determinants that we shall refer ternational law and signed agreements. to while addressing Egypt’s stance toward the devel- þãĀEgypt has been intent on dealing with the GERD opment of the GERD negotiations, and they can be issue, apart from the nature of relations with Ethiopia; further explained in the following seven determinants: particularly that the Egyptian-Ethiopian relations are evolving and include various areas of positive 1. The Renaissance Dam is a matter of Egyptian na- cooperation. tional security. Thus, Egypt addresses the issue from 7. Egypt’s calling upon the international society to this standpoint, and thereby the political leadership mediate did not happen in a vacuum; it was the takes all necessary measures to keep it as a top outcome after the unfruitful negotiations over sev- national priority. sÇĀěsFò÷Ā¬FkĀÇÎĂĀ»sFkĀĂÎĀFÇěĀ–òĎ°Ă–Ď»Ā›Çk°Ç£÷Ā–ÎòĀ 2. The political approach is the one to which Egypt commits resolving the crisis. This is attributed to Ethiopia’s since the crisis began and until now. Egypt’s vision has continued intransigence since the dam construction been to regard the political solution as the primary and began and until now—without any compliance to most appropriate solution within the negotiations process. the rules of international law, particularly to the ĆãĀNegotiating is a highly complex process where each ïÝò°ÎòĀÇÎĂ°›aFĂ°ÎÇðĀÝò°Ça°Ý»sãĀ ÝFòĂěĀĎĂ°»°ğs÷ĀF»»ĀΖĀ°Ă÷ĀĂÎλ÷iĀFÇkĀ°ĂĀ°÷ĀÇsas÷÷FòěĀ–ÎòĀ Turning to more details on the lengthy process of ne-

24 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships gotiations, we can say that it has gone through three 5. ÇĀċġÕ iĀ0òs÷°ksÇĂĀWks»ĀFĂĂF¬ĀF»¯4°÷°ĀÁsĂĀė°Ă¬ĀìsĀ ݬF÷s÷iĀ÷ĂFòĂ°Ç£Ā–òÎÁĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀÇs£ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇĀݬF÷sĀìFĂĀ Ethiopian Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn at began in November 2011 until the Washington Meeting ìFĂĀĂ°ÁsiĀÎÇĀìsĀÁFò£°Ç÷ĀΖĀìsĀ–ò°aFÇĀ9Ç°ÎÇĀ4ĎÁÁ°ĂĀ on 28 February 2020. With regard to this point, we can in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. It was agreed to set ks›ÇsĀìs÷sĀݬF÷s÷ĀF÷Ā–λ»Îė÷hĀ up joint committees to study the impacts of GERD, and thereby a tripartite committee of local experts FIRST PHASE: ESTABLISHMENT OF THE from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, was formulated to NEGOTIATION PROCESS implement the recommendations by the International Expert Committee, previously formulated in 2012, We can call this phase, which started in November ìòÎĎ£¬ĀFÇĀ°ÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»ĀaÎÇ÷Ď»ĂFÇaěĀΙasãĀÇĀFk- 2011 and lasted until March 2015, the Establishment dition, two international consultancies—one Dutch Phase of the Negotiation Process. Although it had not and the other French—were selected for conducting ÷¬ÎėskĀFÇěĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀòs÷Ď»Ă÷iĀ°ĂĀ°÷Ā°ÁÝÎòĂFÇĂiĀ¬ÎėsĕsòiĀ required studies on the dam. to point out the following: SECOND PHASE: CONSENSUS AND OP- 1. Negotiations began in November 2011, only few ERATIONAL MEASURES months after Ethiopia had laid the foundation for the GERD construction in April 2011, where Egypt and This phase, which started upon signing the Declaration Ethiopia agreed on the formulation of an interna- ΖĀ0ò°Ça°Ý»s÷ĀÎÇĀċĆĀ&Fòa¬Āċġ՜ĀFÇkĀ»F÷ĂskĀĎÇĂ°»Ā4sÝĂsÁ- tional committee to evaluate Ethiopia’s engineering WsòĀċġÕÊiĀaFÇĀWsĀòs–sòòskĀĂÎĀF÷ĀìsĀݬF÷sĀΖĀ ÎÇ÷sÇ÷Ď÷Ā studies on GERD and the impact on downstream and Operational Measures. Having the Declaration of countries. The committee—composed of six experts Principles signed in Khartoum by the three presidents from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, two from each, in of states, was the most important feature of this phase. addition to four international neutral experts—began In this regard, we point out the following: their work in May 2012. 2. The International Committee submitted its report by 1. The Declaration of Principles is a general framework ìsĀsÇkĀΖĀ&FěĀċġÕĆiĀ÷ĂFĂ°Ç£ĀìFĂĀìsĀ÷ĂĎk°s÷ĀaÎÇkĎaĂskĀ agreement binding on the parties. It has entered into on GERD lack safety and they are just preliminary poor force upon signature, but does not necessarily require studies that fall short of studying a dam of this scale. any subsequent domestic constitutional measures, ĆãĀLater, Egypt was surprised by Ethiopia’s refusal to compared to other agreements concluded by the involve any international experts, believing that the executive power. participation of local experts from the three coun- 2. Future technical agreements shall arise out of this Ăò°s÷Ā÷¬F»»Ā÷ϙasãĀÇkĀì°÷Ā°÷Āė¬FĂĀ°ÇĀ–FaĂĀÎaaĎòòskã declaration, without any breach of its principles. ãĀNegotiations were suspended for a while, but not for ĆãĀ The preamble of the Declaration of Principles con- »ÎÇ£iĀkĎò°Ç£ĀìsĀï"ĎÇsĀĆġĀ2sĕλĎĂ°ÎÇðĀ°ÇĀċġÕĆiĀė¬°»sĀ tained an obligation for the three signing countries Egypt was more preoccupied with domestic concerns— to abide by the ten principles set forth in this dec- ÝFòĂ°aĎ»Fò»ěĀ›£¬Ă°Ç£ĀF£F°Ç÷ĂĀs÷aF»FĂ°Ç£ĀĂsòòÎò°÷ĂĀFaĂ÷ãĀ laration—among which are principles of trust; coop-

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 25 sòFĂ°ÎÇûĀ aÎÁÁÎÇĀ ĎÇksò÷ĂFÇk°Ç£ûĀ ÁĎĂĎF»Ā WsÇs›ĂûĀ In view of that failure, the President was keen himself to £F°Ç÷Ā–ÎòĀF»»ûĀ£ÎÎkĀ–F°Ă¬ûĀÇÎĂĀĂÎĀaFĎ÷sĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ¬FòÁûĀ announce that the negotiations reached a deadlock. aÎÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇĀÎÇĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀ dam; dam safety; exchange of information and data; ÎǛòÁ°Ç£Ā£ěÝĂð÷ĀaÎÇĂ°ÇĎskĀÝÎ÷°Ă°ĕsĀ÷ĂFÇasiĀ0òs÷°ksÇĂĀ sçĎ°ĂFW»sĀFÇkĀòsF÷ÎÇFW»sĀĎĂ°»°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀ÷¬FòskĀėFĂsòĀ Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Prime Minister of Ethio- resources; development and regional integration; pia Abiy Ahmed on the margins of the Russia-Africa implementation of the International Expert Com- 4ĎÁÁ°ĂĀ ÎÇĀ ċĆĀ )aĂÎWsòĀ ċġÕÊiĀ ė¬sòsĀ ìsěĀ F£òsskĀ ĂÎĀ mittee’s resolutions within 15 months; as well as the resume the work of technical committees among the principles of international law. three countries. Abiy also declared his approval of the ãĀOne important item is the Principle of Peaceful Set- political, but not technical, mediation of Russia. tlement of Disputes; by which if the Parties are unable to settle disputes, arising out of the interpretation or )ÇĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀΖĀ)aĂÎWsòĀċġÕÊiĀìsĀ@¬°ĂsĀÎĎ÷sĀ°÷÷ĎskĀ implementation of this agreement, through consulta- a statement to support the three countries’ pursuit to tion or negotiation, they may jointly request for con- òsFa¬ĀFÇĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀìFĂĀòs£Ď»FĂs÷ĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀÎÝ- ciliation, mediation or refer the matter for the consid- eration of the dam, thus achieves their common inter- eration of the Heads of State/Heads of Government. ests. The White House also called for establishing good 5. During this period, three-, six-, and seven-member faith in negotiations to achieve an agreement that committees were formulated with the participation maintains the rights to economic development and ΖĀ&°Ç°÷Ăsò÷ĀΖĀÎòs°£ÇĀ˜F°ò÷iĀ&°Ç°÷Ăsò÷ĀΖĀòò°£FĂ°ÎÇiĀ welfare, and by which each party respects the rights and intelligence chiefs from the three countries, but of the other. Being particularly highly objective and they yielded no substantial results. neutral, this American statement was directly wel- þãĀThe newly appointed Prime Minister of Ethiopia comed by Egypt. Abiy Ahmed had a meeting with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo in June 2018, during which he In view of such Egyptian welcoming, Washington asserted that Ethiopia would not cause any harm turned its statement into action by inviting Ministers to Egypt’s water security. It was followed by a meet- ΖĀ Îòs°£ÇĀ ˜F°ò÷Ā FÇkĀ &°Ç°÷Ăsò÷Ā ΖĀ òò°£FĂ°ÎÇĀ –òÎÁĀ ing for Ministers of Irrigation from the three coun- Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan for a meeting in Washington, tries, but no agreement was reached. ė¬°a¬ĀėF÷ĀF»òsFkěĀ¬s»kĀÎÇĀþĀ'ÎĕsÁWsòĀċġÕÊãĀ)ÇsĀ 7. Also, notable during this phase was the refusal of ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ ÝFòFkÎęĀ ėF÷Ā 6òĎÁÝð÷Ā sF£sòÇs÷÷Ā ĂÎĀ ÁssĂĀ Ethiopia, for the second time, to Egypt’s proposed with the three delegations, followed by the participa- call upon the World Bank to participate in negotia- Ă°ÎÇĀΖĀ9ã4ãĀ4saòsĂFòěĀΖĀìsĀ6òsF÷ĎòěiĀ4ĂsĕsÇĀ&ÇĎa¬°ÇiĀ tions at a time when Ethiopia did not conduct the and President of the World Bank in these negotiations. international studies on GERD as agreed upon and as provided by the Declaration of Principles. ÇkĀ–λ»Îė°Ç£ĀFòsĀìsĀÁÎ÷ĂĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀÎĎĂaÎÁs÷ĀΖĀ 8. In addition, this phase witnessed the withdrawal of this meeting: the two, Dutch and French, international consultan- 1. To revive the Declaration of Principles, signed in cies due to a lack of objective guarantees for con- 2015, as a main point of reference. ducting the required studies. Instead, two other 2. To compel the three countries to reach a compre- French consultancies were selected and their prelim- ¬sÇ÷°ĕsĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀìFĂĀòs£Ď»FĂs÷ĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀÎÝ- inary report in May 2017 on the studies of GERD eration of the dam. was met with approval by Egypt, but not by Ethiopia. ĆãĀ To create new mechanisms for negotiation, on both political and technical levels; since it was provided THIRD PHASE: INTERNATIONAL MEDIA- that six meetings shall be held at frequent intervals, TION besides engaging Washington and the World Bank in all phases of negotiations. This phase, which can be called International Mediation, ãĀTo provide that if the Parties are unable to reach an started by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi given speech agreement, they shall refer to Principle 10 of the Ws–ÎòsĀìsĀsÇsòF»Ā÷÷sÁW»ěĀΖĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ'FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā°ÇĀ4sÝ- Declaration of Principles to achieve peaceful settle- ĂsÁWsòĀċġÕÊiĀFÇkĀ÷Ă°»»ĀaÎÇĂ°ÇĎs÷ĀĂÎĀì°÷ĀkFěãĀÇĀa»sFòĀĂsòÁ÷Ā ment of disputes. and with decisive statements, His Excellency called for engaging the international community to share respon- ÷ĀÝFòĂĀΖĀ°ÁÝ»sÁsÇĂ°Ç£ĀìsĀÇsėĀÁsa¬FÇ°÷ÁiĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ ÷°W°»°ĂěĀFÇkĀÝòs÷÷ĀìsĀÝFòĂ°s÷ĀĂÎĀ÷¬ÎėĀÇsas÷÷FòěĀžsę°W°»- ÁssĂ°Ç£ĀėF÷Ā¬s»kĀ°ÇĀì°ÎÝ°FĀÎÇĀ՜Ā'ÎĕsÁWsòĀċġÕÊiĀ ity. A concern was also raised that there might be insta- followed by subsequent meetings held across the three bility in the region in case the crisis was not resolved. aÎĎÇĂò°s÷ĀĂÎĀ sęFÁ°ÇsĀF»»ĀĂsa¬Ç°aF»Ā÷Ýsa°›aFĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā ÎÇĀ ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀÎÝsòFĂ°Ç£ĀìsĀkFÁãĀ6¬sĀ÷°ęìĀFÇkĀ»F÷ĂĀÁssĂ- The President’s speech was shortly followed by a meeting ing, held in Washington on 15 January 2020, ended for Ministers of Irrigation from the three countries to exam- with a statement including the following: ine the crisis; however no substantial results were achieved.

26 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships 1. Ethiopia is committed to deal positively during years At the same time on 7 March 2020, Egypt declared its of drought and prolonged droughts, by linking years rejection of the statement issued the day before, in ΖĀ›»»°Ç£ĀĂÎĀìsĀaÎÇk°Ă°ÎÇ÷ĀΖĀkòÎĎ£¬ĂãĀ ė¬°a¬Āì°ÎÝ°FĀaò°Ă°a°ğskĀìsĀòFWĀ$sF£ĎsĀòs÷λĎĂ°ÎÇĀ 2. 6¬sĀ›»»°Ç£Ā÷¬F»»ĀWsĀsęsaĎĂskĀ°ÇĀݬF÷s÷iĀĂF¹°Ç£Ā°ÇĂÎĀ °÷÷ĎskĀÎÇĀ Ā&Fòa¬ĀìFĂĀaF»»skĀĎÝÎÇĀì°ÎÝ°FĀĂÎĀFW°ksĀ FaaÎĎÇĂĀìsĀa¬FÇ£°Ç£ĀçĎFÇĂ°Ă°s÷ĀΖĀžÎÎkėFĂsò÷Ā–òÎÁĀ by the principles of international law and not to take one year to another. any unilateral measures, causing harm to Egypt’s wa- ĆãĀ The three countries have a shared responsibility of ĂsòĀ°ÇĂsòs÷Ă÷ãĀ£ěÝĂiĀ°ÇĀ°Ă÷Ā÷ĂFĂsÁsÇĂiĀòsF™òÁskĀìFĂĀìsĀ operating the dam on the long term in accordance opportunity is still open to reach a balanced agreement with the agreed mechanism. that protects mutual interest of all parties. ãĀÇĀs˜saĂ°ĕsĀÁsa¬FÇ°÷ÁĀ÷¬F»»ĀWsĀs÷ĂFW»°÷¬skĀĂÎĀ÷sĂ- tle any disputes in future over the agreement to be In a new development, Egypt kept moving on the in- reached. ĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā »sĕs»ĀF÷ĀFĀ aÎǛòÁFĂ°ÎÇĀ ΖĀ °Ă÷Ā aÎÇĂ°ÇĎskĀ drive forward on the political track and determination Despite completion of all six meetings set within the ĂÎĀWò°Ç£Ā°ĂĀĂÎĀFĀ÷Ďaas÷÷–Ď»ĀaÎÇa»Ď÷°ÎÇãĀ)ÇĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀΖĀ framework of the newly agreed mechanism, Egypt &FěĀċġċġiĀ°ĂĀ÷sÇĂĀFĀ»sĂĂsòĀĂÎĀìsĀÁsÁWsò÷ĀΖĀìsĀ9Ç°Ă- responded with approval to participate in a later meet- ed Nations Security Council on all developments of °Ç£iĀaF»»skĀ–ÎòĀWěĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷iĀÎÇĀÕĆĀsWòĎFòěĀċġċġĀ the GERD crisis since inception, various stages of ne- in Washington. It was agreed at this meeting that the gotiation, and the stances taken by the country in ac- 9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀėÎĎ»kĀkòF–ĂĀFĀ›ÇF»ĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀ–ÎòĀ»FĂsòĀ cordance with the rules of international law. Egypt submission to the three countries to get it signed in also demanded that Ethiopia should get involved in Washington by the end of February. the negotiations in order to reach a balanced solution that achieves the interest of all parties. Egypt did not close the door to negotiations; but it was rather careful to communicate with other parties, par- CONCLUSION ticularly the Ethiopian side. Shortly after his meeting with Special Envoy of the Ethiopian Prime Minister, £ěÝĂĀ¬F÷ĀksF»ĂĀė°Ă¬Āì°÷Āĕ°ĂF»Ā°÷÷ĎsĀ°ÇĀFĀĕsòěĀa°ĕ°»°ğskĀ Hailemariam Desalegn, in Cairo on 22 February; Pres- way and responded positively to all stages of negoti- °ksÇĂĀWks»ĀFĂĂF¬ĀF»¯4°÷°ĀaÎǛòÁskĀ£ěÝĂð÷ĀksĂsòÁ°- FĂ°ÎÇĀ–ÎòĀÁFÇěĀěsFò÷ãĀĂĀ¬F÷Ā÷¬ÎėskĀÇsas÷÷FòěĀžsę°- nation to bring negotiations to a successful conclusion, bility for reaching an agreement that achieves the in- FÇkĀòsF™òÁskĀìFĂĀìsĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀĂÎĀWsĀ÷°£ÇskĀė°»»Ā terest of the three parties. To this day, Egypt is still balance the interest of all parties, in addition to open- determined to take the peaceful and legal approach of ing up new phase of cooperation and development. negotiation; particularly that President Abdel Fattah ÎėsĕsòiĀì°÷Āĕ°÷°ĂĀk°kĀÇÎĂĀě°s»kĀFÇěĀΖĀìsĀžsę°W°»°ĂěĀ al-Sisi, during his tenure as Chairperson of the African expected to be in Ethiopia’s stance. 9Ç°ÎÇiĀėF÷Ā¹ssÇĀÎÇĀs÷ĂFW»°÷¬°Ç£ĀìsĀÝò°Ça°Ý»sĀΖĀïÝsFas- ful settlement of African disputes’ to help the continent £ěÝĂĀaÎÇĂ°ÇĎskĀĂÎĀ÷¬ÎėĀF»»ĀÇsas÷÷FòěĀžsę°W°»°ĂěĀĂÎĀ get into development and economic growth. end this crisis, where Egyptian Minister of Foreign Af- fairs, Sameh Shoukry, headed to Washington upon the No doubt that Egypt fully appreci- 9ã4ãĀòsçĎs÷ĂĀÎÇĀċĀsWòĎFòěĀċġċġãĀsĀ°Ç°Ă°F»»ěĀ÷°£ÇskĀ FĂs÷Ās˜ÎòĂ÷ĀĂF¹sÇĀWěĀ@F÷¬°Ç£ĂÎÇĀFÇkĀ ìsĀ›ÇF»ĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀkòF–ĂskĀWěĀ@F÷¬°Ç£ĂÎÇĀWF÷skĀÎÇĀ the World Bank to end this crisis, and the outcome of previous negotiations, while on the looks forward to the continuation of other hand Ethiopia failed to attend the meeting, claim- ìs÷sĀ s˜ÎòĂ÷ãĀ £ěÝĂĀ F»÷ÎĀ ¬F÷Ā aÎǛ- ing the need for further consultation. Sudan as well dence in the capability of the Security did not sign the agreement, despite it had attended the Council to fully understand the stance ÁssĂ°Ç£ãĀ ÇĀ ì°÷Ā òs÷ÝsaĂiĀ ėsĀ ÝΰÇĂĀ ÎĎĂĀ ìFĂĀ ìsĀ 9ã4ãĀ of Egypt, and in the Council’s role as a Department of the Treasury issued a statement of ap- catalyst for this crucial issue to main- preciation for Egypt’s stance and commitment to con- tain stability in the region. In any case, Ă°ÇĎskĀs˜ÎòĂ÷Ā–ÎòĀòsFa¬°Ç£ĀFÇĀF£òssÁsÇĂã Egypt rejects Ethiopia’s intentions to aÎÁÁsÇasĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ›»»°Ç£ĀΖĀìsĀkFÁĀ Along with such Ethiopian intransigence, the political within a short period of time and be- leadership of Egypt was determined to give the inter- fore reaching an agreement. Sudan national community an update on the status of nego- supports us in this situation and Egypt tiations. During February and March, Minister of For- asserts its right to possess all neces- s°£ÇĀ ˜F°ò÷iĀ 4FÁs¬Ā 4¬ÎĎ¹òěiĀ ĂÎĎòskĀ ÷sĕsòF»Ā òFWiĀ sary means for maintaining its water African and European countries, giving their leaders rights, not only for this generation, but a presentation on all developments in the negotiation for coming generations as well. process and Egyptian stance as well.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 27 Revisiting Sudan’s Nile position

Mostafa Ahmady ÎòÁsòĀÝòs÷÷ĀFÇkĀ°Ç–ÎòÁFĂ°ÎÇĀΙasò °ÇĀì°ÎÝ°FĀFÇkĀFÇĀsęÝsòĂĀÎÇĀ–ò°aFÇĀF˜F°ò÷ã

ĀíĂĀ°÷ĀÇÎĂĀì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Āò°£¬ĂĀĂÎĀ›»»ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀΖĀ mediator and should not play that role either. It is a the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) party that has rights and obligations within which without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan.” In °ĂĀÇssk÷ĀĂÎĀFaĂãĀ4ssÁ°Ç£»ěiĀ4ĎkFÇð÷ĀíÇsėîĀΙa°F»÷Ā a rare show of disagreement with Addis Ababa, hold the view that their country needs to discuss, #¬FòĂÎĎÁĀ Ιa°F»»ěĀ ÁFksĀ ìsĀ òsÁFò¹÷Ā ìFĂĀ ì°- thoroughly, any would-be negative impact of the ÎÝ°FĀ÷¬ÎĎ»kĀÇÎĂĀĎÇ°»FĂsòF»»ěĀ÷ĂFòĂĀĂÎĀ›»»ĀìsĀü ¯W°»- dam and not take Addis Ababa’s “verbal” assurances lion cubic metre man-made lake. Concomitantly, for granted in that regard. a state minister within Sudan’s Foreign Ministry said his country was not a “chorus dancing to This may explain why the Sudanese prime minister Egyptian or Ethiopian tunes!” explicitly said his government was “committed to the Washington-brokered talks” as the viable mechanism Prior to the ouster of Islamist President Omar Al-Bashir, ĂÎĀsÇkĀìsĀ÷ĂFÇkΘĀFÇkĀòsFa¬ĀFĀė°Ç¯ė°ÇĀaÎÁÝòÎÁ°÷sĀ such remarks were nothing but fancy. Al-Bashir led for the betterment of the three Eastern Nile Basin an intensive “brainwashing” campaign that GERD peoples. The three nations have taken long strides ėÎĎ»kĀWsĀWsÇs›a°F»ĀĂÎĀ4ĎkFÇiĀsĕsÇĀÁĎa¬ĀÁÎòsĀìFÇĀ ĂÎėFòk÷Ā÷λĕ°Ç£Āìs°òĀk°˜sòsÇas÷ĀÎĕsòĀìsĀaÎÇĂòÎĕsò÷°F»Ā to the owner of the dam, Ethiopia. His media mouth- Ethiopian project and almost settled all pending issues Ý°sas÷iĀÁÎ÷Ă»ěĀ÷¬ĎĂĀkÎėÇĀÇÎėĀė°Ă¬°ÇĀΙa°F»ĀÁÎĕs÷Ā except some technical details on how long it will take by the new Sudanese leaders to “remove” pro-Bashir ì°ÎÝ°FĀĂÎĀ›»»ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòiĀFÇkĀkòÎĎ£¬ĂĀÁ°Ă°£FĂ°ÎÇĀ sòFĀÝÎėsò÷ĀFÇkĀÁsk°FĀF£sÇa°s÷ĀFÇkĀaÎǛ÷aFĂsĀìs°òĀ s˜saĂ÷iĀF÷÷°£Ç°Ç£Āíòs÷ÝÎÇ÷°W°»°Ă°s÷îĀ°ÇĀìFĂĀòs÷ÝsaĂã properties back to the state, used to propagandise that the Ethiopian dam would help Sudan fully utilise its @°Ă¬Ā»¯ F÷¬°òĀ°ÇĀΙasiĀkk°÷ĀWFWFĀĎ÷skĀĂÎĀí÷ÝsF¹îĀ ÷¬FòsĀΖĀìsĀ'°»sãĀ9ǖÎòĂĎÇFĂs»ěiĀìsĀaFÁÝF°£ÇĀėF÷Ā on behalf of the Sudanese, while Cairo was playing successful, albeit a paradigm shift is happening now. “solo” to safeguard its people’s and Sudanese rights to the Nile waters. Now, the situation seems to be Just before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, changing, though at a slow pace. Some Sudanese Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdouk was analysts went public to say that Ethiopia “deceived” readying for a “mediation” role between Egypt and Sudan on the issue by concealing “critical” informa- Ethiopia to get both, especially the Ethiopians, back tion that would have changed Sudan’s position com- to the negotiating table after at the last minute the pletely in terms of the “safety” of the colossal dam ÷°£Ç°Ç£ĀΖĀFĀíW°Çk°Ç£ĀFÇkĀ›ÇF»îĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀÎÇĀìsĀ project. Some studies have warned that Khartoum, kFÁĀ–F°»skĀ°ÇĀ@F÷¬°Ç£ĂÎÇãĀÇĀs˜saĂiĀ4ĎkFÇĀ°÷ĀÇÎĂĀFĀ the capital city of Sudan, may be washed away in

28 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships case of the collapse of the dam, a dreadful scenario ordered deployment of the Sudanese army into the Ethiopia has usually downplayed. FòsFiĀ–ÎòĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀĂ°ÁsĀ°ÇĀċœĀěsFò÷ãĀÎòĀìòssĀksaFks÷Ā under Al-Bashir, Ethiopian settlers stretched over Other experts have gone far as to say Ethiopia wants ÁÎòsĀìFÇĀċœġiġġġĀ¬saĂFòs÷ĀΖĀìsĀ›Çs÷ĂĀ4ĎkFÇs÷sĀ a reallocation of water shares among the three na- lands, regarding them as their own, being protected tions. In fact, one of the reasons behind Ethiopia’s by militias drawn from the Ethiopian Amhara region. òs–Ď÷F»ĀĂÎĀ÷°£ÇĀìsĀ94¯kòF–ĂskĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀÎÇĀ2Ā °÷ĀìsĀa»F°ÁĀìFĂĀìsĀksF»Ās˜saĂ°ĕs»ěĀÁF°ÇĂF°Ç÷ĀìsĀ These factors may have caused the “slight” change in status quo regarding the allocation of 55.5 billion cubic Sudan’s position regarding GERD. Above all, Sudan metres (bcm) of water per annum to Egypt. Based on has never been asked to side with any party in the ì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā›»»°Ç£Ā÷asÇFò°ÎiĀ°ĂĀėFÇĂ÷ĀĂÎĀ¬Î»kĀ ãÊĀWaÁĀ–ÎòĀ talks, but rather to support whatever it takes to cause °Ç°Ă°F»Ā›»»°Ç£ĀĂÎĀĂs÷ĂĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀĂėÎĀΖĀìsĀÕĆĀĂĎòW°Çs÷ĀΖĀ no harm to the Sudanese people who, under Al-Bashir 2ãĀÇĀìsĀ÷saÎÇkĀěsFòiĀì°ÎÝ°FĀėFÇĂ÷ĀĂÎĀ¬Î»kĀÕĆãœĀ and his Islamist gang, sustained every and each kind bcm in order to test the remaining turbines. After that, of harm politically, economically and socially. Now, as °ĂĀF°Á÷ĀĂÎĀòs»sF÷sĀĆÕĀWaÁĀΖĀėFĂsòĀFÇÇĎF»»ěãĀ6¬°÷ĀÝ»FÇĀ their revolution managed to change the face of life in considers neither Egypt’s nor Sudan’s water demands. Sudan, at least politically, given the ailing economic In other words, the Ethiopian objection was not the conditions mostly inherited from the ousted regime, agreement in itself, but rather the “share” Egypt and there is a need to march ahead with new thoughts Sudan receive from the Nile. If Egypt’s share of the and ideas to protect Sudan’s “interests”. Nile drops drastically, a similar scenario would occur in Sudan, and in this case the total share would not WsĀ÷ϙa°sÇĂĀ–ÎòĀìsĀĂėÎĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷ðĀWF÷°aĀėFĂsòĀÇssk÷iĀ Like Sudan, Egypt acknowledges Ethi- something Addis Ababa does not seem to heed. opia’s right to utilisation of the Nile ėFĂsò÷iĀÝòÎĕ°kskĀÇÎĀ¬FòÁĀWsĀ°Çž°aĂskĀ 'ÎėĀìsĀ°ksFĀΖĀ4ĎkFÇð÷Āí¬Ď£sîĀWsÇs›Ă÷Ā–òÎÁĀìsĀkFÁĀ on downstream peoples. The issue of look like so many castles in the air. This may be the GERD should be kept away from “po- reason behind Sudan’s most recent positions on the larisation” by any party, so that tech- dam. Another possible reason may be Addis Ababa’s nical experts from the three nations military pressure on Khartoum to continue to follow aFÇĀ›ÇkĀìsĀWs÷ĂĀÁsFÇ÷ĀĂÎĀ÷λĕsĀìs°òĀ “Al-Bashir’s” policies regarding the dam. Some weeks òsÁF°Ç°Ç£Ā k°˜sòsÇas÷Ā s˜saĂ°ĕs»ěãĀ F£ÎiĀìsĀì°ÎÝ°FÇĀÁ°»°ĂFòěĀ÷ĂÎòÁskĀ°ÇĂÎĀòÎĎ£¬»ěĀċĆiġġġĀ Transparent disclosure of all particu- hectares in Eastern Sudan at Al-Fashaka, in a show of lars of the dam, positive and negative, “negligence” for Sudan’s sovereignty over the territories. remains the only viable means to get Fò»°sòiĀÁ°»°Ă°F÷ĀF™»°FĂskĀĂÎĀkk°÷ĀWFWFiĀìÎĎ£¬ĀΙ- the three “sisterly” nations closer to cially dubbed as outlawed, had clashes with units from reaching a lasting compromise that the Sudanese army, leaving soldiers killed and injured. would not fall apart once GERD goes online. As a response, the Chairman of the Sovereign Council of Sudan Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan,

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 29 How Does Ethiopia Think About the Renaissance Dam?

Hani Raslan Expert at al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies

Far from the pretexts and groundless excuses, re- decades, to evade its obligations to the rules of interna- cited by Ethiopian negotiators, concerning the Grand tional law on non-navigational uses of watercourses. It Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the real pur- claims that the country invokes the principle of ‘sover- pose of constructing it, there is a dire need for review- eignty’ and that these resources and rivers are located ing the truth behind this project and the Ethiopian within the Ethiopian lands—a principle which contra- intentions as well. This is to uncover the way in which venes the rules of international law and violates the Ethiopia thinks while managing this issue. two principles of ‘prior notice’ and ‘fair and equitable ĎĂ°»°ğFĂ°ÎÇðãĀ0sò¬FÝ÷ĀìFĂĀÝò°Ça°Ý»sĀ¬F÷Ā¬s»ÝskĀì°ÎÝ°FĀĂÎĀ THE PARADOX OF RESOURCES AND s÷ĂFW»°÷¬Ā°Ă÷ĀÁF°ÇĀÝòsĂsęĂĀ–ÎòĀòs–Ď÷°Ç£ĀĂÎĀ÷¬ÎėĀžsę°W°»°ĂěĀ in the Renaissance Dam negotiations, whether during the POVERTY IN ETHIOPIA Ăò°ÝFòĂ°ĂsĀÇs£ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀÎòĀsĕsÇĀF–ĂsòĀìsĀ94ĀÝFĂòÎÇF£sĀĂÎĀ ÎòĀÁFÇěĀòsF÷ÎÇ÷iĀì°ÎÝ°FĀ÷Ϙsò÷ĀFĀ»Fa¹ĀΖĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀ°ÇĀ the negotiations. Especially that Ethiopia still claims that ĎĂ°»°ğ°Ç£Ā°Ă÷ĀÇFĂĎòF»Āòs÷ÎĎòas÷ãĀĂĀ¬F÷Ā¬sFĕěĀòF°Ç–F»»Āė°Ă¬ĀFĀ ìsĀ£ěÝĂð÷ĀÝòÎÝÎ÷F»÷ĀFòsĀk°÷òĎÝĂ°ĕsĀWsaFĎ÷sĀìsěĀïF˜saĂĀ ÝFĂĂsòÇĀΖĀÊĆġĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀÝsòĀěsFòûĀÎĎĂĀΖĀė¬°a¬Ā the Ethiopian sovereignty’. üâĀsĕFÝÎòFĂs÷iĀ»sFĕ°Ç£ĀÎÇ»ěĀÕċċĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀΖĀ renewable running waters distributed over 12 river ba- Ethiopia wanted to take advantage of the exceptional sins in Ethiopia. The Nile River basin is not the only one, political condition that Egypt witnessed in 2011 in order but the most important. In addition, Ethiopia has a large to turn the issue of the Renaissance Dam into a fait ac- group of lakes, among which are 11 freshwater lakes. compli, by entering into a series of meetings—they called negotiations and discussions. But this was to gain time However, on the other hand, Ethiopia is one the poorest ìòÎĎ£¬ĀÝòsĕFò°aFĂ°Ç£iĀks»ĕ°Ç£Ā°ÇĂÎĀ÷Ýsa°›a÷ĀFÇkĀ¹ssÝ°Ç£Ā countries in the world. Its Gross National Product (GNP), meetings apart in time. Once the dam was almost com- Ă°»»ĀÇÎėiĀsçĎF»÷ĀՐâĀΖĀ£ěÝĂð÷Ā'0iĀF»Ă¬ÎĎ£¬ĀÝÎÝĎ»FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā plete, Ethiopia said that the dam is Ethiopian, not Egyp- are almost equal in both countries. Based on this, Ethio- tian, denying Egypt to provide proposals for the project. pians established an entrenched conviction that the main £FĂsĀĂÎĀksĕs»ÎÝÁsÇĂĀ°÷ĀĎĂ°»°ğ°Ç£ĀėFĂsòĀòs÷ÎĎòas÷ĀìòÎĎ£¬Ā WESTERN SUPPORT TO ETHIOPIAN building huge groups of dams to generate power to be used domestically, while exporting the biggest share to PLANS bring in foreign currency. The main purpose of constructing this vast amount of dams and generating power is to export. This rep- To this end, Ethiopia has been trying, for more than two resents an economic dimension, given that during a

30 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships conference on energy held in Ethiopia in May 2012, the the Renaissance Dam. But if this dam is not constructed, Ethiopian Minister of Energy announced that Ethiopia is de- ìsĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀė°»»ĀasF÷sĀĂÎĀÎÝsòFĂsĀė°Ă¬°ÇĀ›–ĂěĀ ĂsòÁ°ÇskĀĂÎĀÝòÎkĎasĀ ġġġġĀÁs£FėFĂĂ÷ĀΖĀsÇsò£ěĀWěĀċġƜãĀ years, which is a very short life expectancy for the dam. However, the number sounds huge because Ethiopia’s domestic grid is incapable to accommodate this amount. THE REAL PURPOSE OF CONSTRUCT- Ethiopian political objectives, regarding energy export ING THE DAM to its neighboring countries, are complementary to the Currently, Ethiopia has successfully portrayed the crisis political trends of successive Ethiopian governments as a water and development crisis. However, this is not ÷°ÇasĀ ÕÊÊÕãĀ @¬sÇĀ &s»s÷Ā DsÇFė°Ā F÷÷ĎÁskĀ ìsĀ òĎ»siĀ the case because deducting 10 billion cubic meters of ¬sĀėF÷ĀFkÎÝĂskĀWěĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀFÇkĀìsĀ@s÷ĂĀ £ěÝĂð÷Ā÷¬FòsĀΖĀìsĀ'°»sĀėFĂsò÷Āė°»»ĀÇÎĂĀWsÇs›ĂĀì°ÎÝ°FãĀ to help Ethiopia serve as the fulcrum of the Horn of ĂĀ°÷ĀFĀÝλ°Ă°aF»Ā°÷÷ĎsĀÝFòĀsęas»»sÇasãĀ6¬°÷ĀėF÷ĀòsžsaĂskĀ°ÇĀ –ò°aF}ė¬°a¬Ā°Ça»Ďks÷Ā#sÇěFiĀ6FÇğFÇ°FiĀ4ĎkFÇĀFÇkĀ the Ethiopian approach which is based on expediting South of Sudan, in addition to other Horn countries— the dam construction and turning it into a fait accompli and thus Egypt becomes isolated from its southern that enables Ethiopia to gain control over the Blue Nile neighborhood. Ethiopia wants to bring neighboring aÎĎò÷siĀìĎ÷ĀFWλ°÷¬ĀìsĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇasĀΖĀìsĀ÷ėFÇĀ°£¬Ā countries within the Ethiopian orbit and help them Dam by leaving it empty and dependent on receiving put themselves forward as models of development, revenues year after year. This will also return Egypt to stability, peacemaking and cooperation. ìsĀò°÷¹ĀΖĀÝòλÎÇ£skĀžÎÎk°Ç£ĀΖĀ»Îė»FÇk÷ãĀ

At the moment, Ethiopia still receives western support and patronage in return for countering terrorism and By this Ethiopia wants the Renaissance WsaÎÁ°Ç£ĀFĀ94ĀÝλ°aěĀÁÎks»ãĀ6¬°÷ĀėF÷ĀsęsÁÝ»°›skĀ Dam to become water gates it controls in the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s receiving the No- to dictate terms and conditions to Ws»Ā0ò°ğsĀ–ÎòĀ0sFasĀė°Ă¬ĀaÎÇ÷°ksòFW»sĀės÷ĂsòÇĀ÷ĎÝÝÎòĂiĀ Egypt (under threat of water withhold- although his initiative for peace with Eretria in 2018 ing) and Sudan (under threat of land was only a nominal acceptance of the international submergence). Once the series of dam arbitral award in favor of Eretria in 2000, which has projects are complete, an old Ethiopi- not yet found the way to be implemented in practice. an objective that Ethiopia becomes the ‘junction of seas and rivers’ will The huge Ethiopian projects of dam construction and be achieved, after the country returns ÝÎėsòĀ£sÇsòFĂ°ÎÇĀFòsĀ›ÇFÇaskĀWěĀ›ĕsĀÁF·ÎòĀkÎÇÎò÷iĀ back to seawater by reconciling with namely the World Bank, the Italian government, Euro- Eretria and Djibouti, controls over the pean Investment Bank, African Investment Bank and Red Sea inlets and the Nile tributar- the Chinese government. They are managed by direct ies, and thus becomes a dominating attribution. What is serious is that the support is not country in the Horn of Africa. All that »°Á°ĂskĀĂÎĀ›ÇFÇa°Ç£ĀìsĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀ÷°ÇasĀìsòsĀ will be at the expense of the Egyptian are three other dams to be constructed over the Blue state, its position, role, and capacity of Nile next to the Renaissance Dam. The implementation providing development to people. of one dam will be expedited to alleviate pressure on

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 31 Does Ethiopia Want to Resolve the Renaissance Dam Crisis?

Dr. Muhammed Nasr Aallam Former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation

Addis Ababa claims that Egypt is an intransigent Ataturk Dam during the period of Iraq’s preoccupation country that refuses to allow Ethiopia to exploit its with its war with Iran, a dam that deprives Syria and own water resources and build dams with the aim of Iraq of most of their historical water share. Similarly, achieving development and generating electricity for Ethiopia took advantage of turmoil and internal strug- the poor Ethiopian population deprived of services. gles in Egypt amid the 2011 revolution and laid the Furthermore, Ethiopia claims that under the previous foundation stone of GERD, announcing the beginning regime, relations between the countries witnessed a of its construction even before performing the required lack of cooperation, provoking internal unrest, while studies. In spite of this, Egypt willingly entered nego- the truth is that Ethiopia realised great gains during this tiations over the dam with Ethiopia and accordingly period, as Egypt turned a blind eye to the construction an International Panel of Experts (IPoE) was formed in ΖĀìsĀ6s¹sğsĀFÁĀÎÇĀĂWFòFĀ2°ĕsòiĀ°ÇĀFkk°Ă°ÎÇĀĂÎĀìsĀ order to assess Ethiopian studies of the dam and share construction of the Tana Belestunnel on the Blue Nile the results with the countries immediately concerned in order to generate electricity and cultivate vast areas (Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia). Ethiopia requested that of Ethiopian lands. Egypt also agreed that the Nile Basin the experts’ report be consultative and not binding. Initiative would fund feasibility studies of four major Ethiopian dams on the Blue Nile (Karadobi, Beko-Abo, ěĀìsĀsÇkĀΖĀ&FěĀċġÕĆiĀìsĀ0ÎĀ°÷÷ĎskĀ°Ă÷Ā›ÇF»ĀòsÝÎòĂĀė¬°a¬Ā &FÇkFěFĀFÇkĀ ÎòksòáĀė°Ă¬ĀFĀĂÎĂF»ĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀΖĀÕ ġĀW°»- stated that there are many important observations to make re- lion cubic metres, or nearly three times the annual yield garding the constructional design as well as the hydrological, of the Blue Nile, in order to expand agricultural land environmental and socio-economic studies of the dam, which by about one million feddans. should be started over. In order to consider the recommenda- tions of the IPoE, two meetings of the water ministers of the In 2008, Egypt agreed that the World Bank would fund three countries were held during the months of November the feasibility study of Border Dam with an estimated FÇkĀsasÁWsòĀċġÕĆĀė¬sòsĀWÎìĀì°ÎÝ°FĀFÇkĀ4ĎkFÇĀF£òsskĀ aFÝFa°ĂěĀΖĀÕ ĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂòs÷ãĀĂĀ°÷ĀėÎòìĀÇÎĂ°Ç£Ā ìFĂĀ°ĂĀėÎĎ»kĀWsĀ÷ϙa°sÇĂĀĂÎĀ–ÎòÁĀFĀaÎÁÁ°ĂĂssĀΖĀÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā that after the Egyptian revolution in January 2011, Bor- experts from the three countries with the aim to supervise der Dam was replaced by GERD (the Grand Ethiopian the implementation of the IPoE’s recommendations, while 2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀ FÁáĀ F–ĂsòĀ °ÇaòsF÷°Ç£Ā °Ă÷Ā aFÝFa°ĂěĀ ĂÎĀ ü Ā Egypt called for the participation of international experts in billion cubic metres, and Ethiopia undertook unilat- ìsĀaÎÁÁ°ĂĂssĀĂÎĀsÇ÷ĎòsĀ°ÁÝFòĂ°F»°ĂěãĀ9ǖÎòĂĎÇFĂs»ěiĀìsĀĂėÎĀ erally the design and construction of GERD without meetings failed to achieve their objectives and Egypt was notifying downstream countries or consulting them forced not only to waive its demand, but also to accept the about its negative impacts and risks. Ethiopian request “not to conduct dam safety studies through the committee.” Meetings continued to select an international This Ethiopian behaviour towards Egypt in regard to consultant to conduct the required studies without any results 2Ā ¬F÷Ā WssÇĀ F»ėFě÷Ā a¬FòFaĂsò°÷skĀ WěĀ ÷s°ğ°Ç£Ā ÎÝ- on the ground, even after the three countries signed the Dec- portunities and evading any obligations imposed by laration of Principles in March 2015. international law, while no other country in the world pursued this approach except Turkey by building the ÇĀ ċġÕþiĀ ìsĀ ìòssĀ aÎĎÇĂò°s÷Ā F£òsskĀ ĂÎĀ aÎÇĂòFaĂĀ ĂėÎĀ

32 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships òsÇa¬ĀaÎÇ÷Ď»ĂFÇaěĀ›òÁ÷ĀàFaaÎòk°Ç£ĀĂÎĀì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Āks- FĀ÷ÎĎòasĀΖĀ›÷¬ĀėsF»Ă¬iĀkò°Ç¹°Ç£ĀėFĂsòĀFÇkĀF£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»Ā sire). The consultant submitted the inception report, but water for local people. The river dried up, which drove ì°ÎÝ°FĀòs·saĂskĀ°ĂĀFÇkĀ÷Ď££s÷ĂskĀĂÎĀ–ÎòÁĀFĀ÷a°sÇĂ°›aĀ its local population to migrate. Similarly, Ethiopia built committee that comprises academics from the three a series of dams on the Ganale Dawa River, which is countries in order to work instead of the consultant! ìsĀ÷ÎĎòasĀ ΖĀìsĀ "ĎWFĀ 2°ĕsòĀìFĂĀ žÎė÷Ā °ÇĂÎĀ4ÎÁF»°FĀ Egypt went along with the Ethiopian request, which and into the Indian Ocean, causing great problems for intended to exclude the participation of any internation- ìsĀa°Ă°ğsÇ÷ĀΖĀ4ÎÁF»°FiĀĂF¹°Ç£ĀFkĕFÇĂF£sĀΖĀ°Ç÷ĂFW°»°ĂěĀ al experts who might condemn the Ethiopian side for in this sister country. the massive repercussions of GERD on Egypt and Su- kFÇãĀ6¬sĀ÷a°sÇĂ°›aĀaÎÁÁ°ĂĂssĀk°kĀÇÎĂĀ÷ĎaasskĀĂÎĀòsFa¬Ā In recent weeks, Ethiopia revealed its true direction after any agreement between the three countries, and Egypt nine years of fruitless negotiations by declaring that any announced the failure of negotiations and resorted to upcoming discussions should include allocating an Ethio- òsçĎs÷ĂĀ°ÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»ĀÁsk°FĂ°ÎÇãĀ6¬sĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷Āė°Ă¬Ā pian water share from the Blue Nile, through the applica- the World Bank agreed to supervise the negotiations tion of the rules stipulated in the Cooperation Framework with a view to reaching an agreement concerning the Agreement, which is also called the Entebbe Agreement, ›»»°Ç£ĀΖĀìsĀkFÁĀFÇkĀ°Ă÷ĀÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇãĀ4ĎW÷sçĎsÇĂ»ěiĀ÷s- neglecting the fact that both Egypt and Sudan are not ò°ÎĎ÷Ā÷a°sÇĂ°›aĀFÇkĀĂsa¬Ç°aF»ĀÇs£ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀĂÎιĀÝ»FasĀ part of this agreement and have concerns about it. Fur- ìòÎĎ£¬Ā÷sĕsòF»Ā÷s÷÷°ÎÇ÷Āė¬sòsĀkFÁĀ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀÎÝsòF- thermore, Ethiopia has no hydrological relationship (from tion rules were agreed upon. However, disagreements far or near) with the countries of the Equatorial plateau. emerged on both operational rules and how to settle k°÷ÝĎĂs÷ĀìFĂĀÁFěĀFò°÷sĀkĎò°Ç£ĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀÎòĀÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇĀ Last, but not least, Ethiopia recently announced the re- of the dam, as well as the means of coordination and kĎaĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀÇĎÁWsòĀΖĀĂĎòW°Çs÷Ā°ÇĀìsĀ2ĀĂÎĀÕĆĀ application of the rules agreed upon in this agreement. °Ç÷ĂsFkĀΖĀÕþiĀ÷ÎĀìFĂĀìsĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀΖĀìsĀÝÎėsòĀ÷ĂFĂ°ÎÇĀ°÷Ā less than 5,000 megawatts, thus reducing the maximum 6¬sĀ 9Ç°ĂskĀ 4ĂFĂs÷Ā FÇkĀ ìsĀ@Îò»kĀ FǹĀ kòF–ĂskĀ FĀ aÎÁ- water discharge of the dam by about 20 percent, which ÝòÎÁ°÷sĀ F£òssÁsÇĂĀ òs£Fòk°Ç£Ā ìs÷sĀ k°˜sòsÇas÷iĀ ĂÎĀ WsĀ will have negative impacts on Egypt and Sudan. It is discussed during the last round of negotiations. Egypt worth noting that this new power capacity could have initialed the agreement, while Ethiopia was absent from been produced through the construction of a smaller this meeting under false pretences. It then refused to con- dam of no more than two-thirds of the current dam’s Ă°ÇĎsĀÇs£ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀĎÇksòĀ94ĀFÇkĀ@Îò»kĀ FǹĀ÷ĎÝsòĕ°÷°ÎÇã aFÝFa°ĂěiĀė¬°a¬ĀaÎǛòÁ÷ĀìFĂĀìsĀòsF»Ā£ÎF»Ā°÷ĀĂÎĀWĎ°»kĀìsĀ largest possible dam to block water from Egypt until it Ethiopian behaviour of assuming absolute sovereignty has to agree to a compulsory water share for Ethiopia. over its resources, including shared international rivers, is a public policy applied with neighbouring countries Kenya and Somalia, a clear example being the case of After all the previously mentioned en- the Omo River shared between Ethiopia and Kenya counters, and after the fact that Ethiopia where Ethiopia had constructed a series of dams to has unilaterally announced that it will generate electricity, cultivate large areas of sugar cane, ÷ĂFòĂĀ›»»°Ç£Ā2Āì°÷Ā"Ď»ěiĀė¬FĂĀ£ĎFòFÇ- and build sugar factories without taking into account tees does Egypt have as to the serious- the interests of Kenya. The Omo River has historically ness of any further negotiations with žÎėskĀ°ÇĂÎĀÎÇsĀΖĀìsĀÁÎ÷ĂĀWsFĎĂ°–Ď»Ā–ò°aFÇĀ»F¹s÷iĀ$F¹sĀ Ethiopia? Turkana in Kenya, a habitat for rare wild animals and

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 33

Impact Assessment of the Renaissance Dam

The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on Sudan and Egypt Eng. Haidar Youssef Bekhiet GERD Failure Analysis and the Impacts on Downstream Countries 7PXSX4[BWP T The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Agriculture and the Rural Poor in Egypt Nesreen AlSabahe The Hydrological and Environmental Impacts of Constructing the Renaissance Dam Mahmoud Salama Environmental Impacts of the GERD: Mitigation and Adaptation Options Shimaa Elbiksh The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on Sudan and Egypt

Eng. Haidar Youssef Bekhiet Water Resources Expert, Republic of Sudan

In accordance with the Council of Ministers’ reso- the Sudanese borders, and with a maximum of 11 »ĎĂ°ÎÇĀÎÇĀĆÕĀ&Fòa¬ĀċġÕÕiĀì°ÎÝ°FĀksa»FòskĀ–ÎòĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ billion cubic meters storage capacity for the reservoir Ă°ÁsĀìs°òĀΙa°F»ĀFÝÝòÎĕF»ĀĂÎĀaÎÇ÷ĂòĎaĂĀìsĀ0òηsaĂĀAiĀ Ws¬°ÇkĀìsĀkFÁãĀ6¬s÷sĀ÷Ýsa°›aFĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀėsòsĀ÷sĂĀÎĎĂĀWěĀ as referred to in the text of the resolution. However, ìsĀ9ã4ãĀ÷ĂĎkěiĀWF÷skĀÎÇĀìsĀ£sλΣ°aF»ĀĕĎ»ÇsòFW°»°- the name was later changed to the Millennium Dam, ty mapped at the dam’s site and its shortcoming to and then to its current name, the Renaissance Dam. store more than 11 billion tons of water in the dam’s reservoir, in addition to the dam’s location within The Renaissance Dam is not a development project, the Great Rift Valley. Whereas, for the Renaissance nor one of the water resources projects submitted by Dam, it is only 12.5 kilometers far from the Sudanese Ethiopia upon the request of the NBI Secretariat (Nile- WÎòksò÷Āė°Ă¬ĀìsĀFaaÎÁÝFÇě°Ç£Ā÷Fkk»sĀkFÁĀÎÇ»ěĀ›ĕsĀ 4 áiĀF÷ĀÝFòĂĀΖĀìsĀ'°»sĀ F÷°ÇĀÇ°Ă°FĂ°ĕsĀà' áĀ°ÇĀÕÊÊÊiĀ kilometers away. Strangely enough, Ethiopiareused to name a list of the Nile Basin projects. Ethiopia sub- ìsĀ94 2Ā÷ĂĎk°s÷ĀΖĀìsĀ ÎòksòĀFÁĀÝòηsaĂ}ė¬°a¬Ā Á°ĂĂskĀFĀÇĎÁWsòĀΖĀĆĆĀÝòηsaĂ÷ĀÝòsÝFòskĀWěĀìsĀ9ã4ãĀ ėsòsĀÝòsĕ°ÎĎ÷»ěĀaÎÇkĎaĂskĀ°ÇĀÕÊþ }F÷ĀìsĀÎò°£°ÇF»Ā ĎòsFĎĀΖĀ2sa»FÁFĂ°ÎÇĀà94 2áĀ°ÇĀÕÊþ iĀFÁÎÇ£Āė¬°a¬Ā studies for the Renaissance Dam, despite the large were four dam projects—namely Kardobi Dam, Mabil discrepancy between the outlines of the two dams. Dam, Mandaia Dam and Border Dam—constructed The Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, speaking along the Blue Nile’s course within Ethiopia, with FĂĀìsĀü ìĀ÷s÷÷°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ'FĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀsÇsòF»Ā ÷Ýsa°›aĀFÇkĀ¹ÇÎėÇĀaFÝFa°Ă°s÷Ā–ÎòĀ÷ĂÎòF£sĀFÇkĀÝÎėsòĀ ÷÷sÁW»ěĀà9'áĀ°ÇĀċġÕÊiĀ÷Ăòs÷÷skĀìFĂĀì°ÎÝ°FĀ°÷Ā generating per each dam. constructing the biggest dam for power generation in –ò°aFiĀWĎĂĀė°Ă¬ÎĎĂĀ÷ϙa°sÇĂĀ÷ĂĎk°s÷ãĀ÷Ā÷Ďa¬ĀFÇkĀ°ÇĀ aaÎòk°Ç£ĀĂÎĀìsĀ9ã4ãĀÎĎĂ»°Çs÷Ā–ÎòĀìsĀÝòηsaĂiĀìsĀ Îò- all candor, the Egyptian President declared this from ksòĀFÁĀ°÷Ā»ÎaFĂskĀFòÎĎÇkĀ ġĀ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷Ā–FòĀ–òÎÁĀ ìsĀÝ»FÖÎòÁĀΖĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ'FĂ°ÎÇ÷ãĀ

36 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships FIRST: HOW DID THE RENAISSANCE capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and DAM COME TO BE CONSTRUCTED AT that is to sign the Cooperative Framework Agreement 4()3,/#!4)/.!.$7)4(35#(3):%  (CFA) leading to the establishment of the Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC). But Sudan refused to sign IÇĀÕÊÊüiĀìsĀ'°»sĀ F÷°ÇĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷Ā÷°£ÇskĀìsĀ'°»sĀ F- the Kinshasa Minutes, which was followed by Egypt sin Initiative (NBI) and the project was launched in withdrawing its signature; and both countries commit- #FÁÝF»FiĀ9£FÇkFĀ°ÇĀÕÊÊÊ}ĎÇksòĀìsĀ÷ĎÝÝÎòĂĀFÇkĀÝF- ted to their refusal. On the other hand, the seven Nile tronage of the World Bank over ten years and with Basin signatories on the Kinshasa Minutes requested ìsĀF÷÷°÷ĂFÇasĀΖĀÕĆĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷ĀF÷Āės»»ĀF÷Ā°ÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā the World Bank to declare the establishment of the and European institutions. Over the course of these Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC); however, this years, the World Bank held water-related conferences request was met with refusal from the World Bank. It in the Nile Basin countries in order to identify the rather required the consent of Sudan and Egypt and water resources of these countries as well as their de- threatened to withdraw from supporting the initiative velopment projects related to shared waters. The stated in case the two countries refused to sign. In addition, objective of this initiative was the establishment of the the World Bank gave Sudan and Egypt a one-year grace Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC) to serve in the period to adjust their positions and sign the agreement. management and development of the Nile waters for But after their continued insistence on not signing until ìsĀWsÇs›ĂĀΖĀìsĀ F÷°ÇĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷ĀFÇkĀìs°òĀÝÎÝĎ»FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā ìsĀsÇkĀΖĀìsĀ÷Ýsa°›skĀÝsò°ÎkĀWěĀìsĀsÇkĀΖĀċġÕġiĀì°- ΖĀFWÎĎĂĀĆġġĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀÝsÎÝ»sãĀ6¬sĀÝòηsaĂð÷Āĕ°÷°ÎÇĀaFÁsĀ opia announced its sudden decision of beginning the in conformity with what Hagai Erlikh, a Professor of construction of the Renaissance Dam in February 2011. 0λ°Ă°aF»Ā4a°sÇasĀFĂĀ6s»Āĕ°ĕĀ9Ç°ĕsò÷°ĂěiĀÁsÇĂ°ÎÇskĀ°ÇĀ his book, The Cross and the River: Ethiopia, Egypt and Endorsed by Egypt, Sudan’s decision to not to sign the the Nile (2001). Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) came as a good decision; it thwarted all plans to establish the A draft legal cooperative framework, later known as Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC) whose formula- the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), was de- tion was unable to preserve the water rights of Sudan veloped for the establishment of the Nile River Basin and Egypt. On the other hand, the upstream countries Commission (NRBC). Consultations continued over sought, through this commission, to violate the legally about ten years to reach a consensus on the provisions established principle in the Convention on the Law of ΖĀì°÷ĀaÎÁÁ°÷÷°ÎÇûĀ¬ÎėsĕsòiĀìsěĀ÷ĂF»»skĀ°ÇĀċġġÊĀF–ĂsòĀ 'Îǯ'Fĕ°£FĂ°ÎÇF»Ā9÷s÷ĀΖĀÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā@FĂsòaÎĎò÷s÷} no agreement was reached. The three controversial ė¬°a¬ĀėF÷ĀsÇkÎò÷skĀWěĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ'FĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀsÇsòF»Ā provisions were: ÷÷sÁW»ěĀ°ÇĀÕÊÊüĀFÇkĀìsÇĀWsaFÁsĀ»s£F»»ěĀW°Çk°Ç£Ā°ÇĀ ċġÕ ãĀ6¬sĀ ÎÇĕsÇĂ°ÎÇĀks›ÇskĀFĀïėFĂsòaÎĎò÷sĀ÷ĂFĂsðĀ°ÇĀ 1. $Fa¹ĀΖĀòs–sòsÇasĀĂÎĀìsĀïÝò°ÎòĀÇÎĂ°›aFĂ°ÎÇðĀÝò°Ça°Ý»sĀ òĂ°a»sĀċĀàaáhĀ9÷sĀΖĀ6sòÁ÷iĀF÷Ā–λ»Îė÷h °ÇĀFaaÎòkFÇasĀė°Ă¬ĀìsĀ9'Ā@FĂsòaÎĎò÷s÷Ā ÎÇĕsÇĂ°ÎÇãĀ ‘Watercourse State means a State Party to the present 2. The call by some upstream countries for the cancella- Convention in whose territory part of an international tion of prior conventions on watercourses; particularly watercourse is situated, or a Party that is a regional ìsĀÕÊċÊĀ'°»sĀ@FĂsò÷Ā£òssÁsÇĂĀWsĂėssÇĀìsĀ£ěÝĂ°FÇĀ saÎÇÎÁ°aĀĀ°ÇĂs£òFĂ°ÎÇĀĀÎò£FÇ°ğFĂ°ÎÇiĀĀ°ÇĀìsĀĂsòò°ĂÎòěĀ ÎĕsòÇÁsÇĂĀFÇkĀĎÝÝsòĀ'°»sĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷iĀFÇkĀìsĀÕʜÊĀ of one or more of whose Member States part of an Nile Waters Agreement between Egypt and Sudan. international watercourse is situated.’

ĆãĀ Decisions at the proposed Nile River Basin Commis- ěĀFÝÝ»ě°Ç£Āì°÷Āks›Ç°Ă°ÎÇĀÎÇĀïWF÷°ÇĀ÷ĂFĂsðĀF»ÎÇ£Āė°Ă¬Ā sion (NRBC) are made by majority rule, while Sudan the Law on the Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC) and Egypt called for unanimous decision-making. that permits absolute majority decision-making; op- portunities will be open for non-Nile Basin Countries ÇĀ&FěĀċġġÊiĀìsĀ@Îò»kĀ FǹĀs»s£FĂsĀFÇkĀ' Ā4ÝÎÇ- to obtain membership of the Nile Basin countries; sor, David Gray, invited representatives of the Nile Ba- particularly that, since 2005, several countries in the sin countries to convene for a meeting in Kinshasa, region as well as others have signed economic integra-

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 37 Ă°ÎÇĀF£òssÁsÇĂ÷Āė°Ă¬Ā›ĕsĀΖĀìsĀ'°»sĀ F÷°ÇĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷iĀ ė¬°a¬Ā°÷ĀFÇÇĎF»»ěĀòsÇsėskĀkĎò°Ç£ĀìsĀ'°»sĀžÎÎk- including Ethiopia. One agreement was that signed ing periods. In addition, alluvium is the only re- ė°Ă¬Āì°ÎÝ°FĀĂÎĀΘsòĀaÎÇ÷Ď»ĂFÇaěĀFÇkĀÁFÇF£sÁsÇĂĀ source of raw material for brick-making in Sudan, services for the power plants that serve present and whose annual production exceeds one billion future Ethiopian projects. bricks made of cost-free and annually renewable raw material. Without alluvium, water acquires Thus, in violation of all international laws, customs, an increased capacity to cause erosion, thus all bilateral agreements and good-neighborly relations; coastal buildings, viaducts and bridges, as well Ethiopia’s decision to construct the Renaissance Dam F÷ĀìsĀÁÎòݬλΣěĀΖĀò°ĕsòĀaÎĎò÷s÷iĀ£sĂĀF˜saĂskãĀ came as a response to the obstruction led by Sudan 6¬sĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀ¬F÷ĀÇÎĀs˜saĂĀÎÇĀÝòsĕsÇĂ°Ç£Ā and Egypt to the establishment of the Nile River Basin sedimentation in the High Dam. These are only Commission (NRBC). The dam project breached the ‘pri- examples of many evidences that no real studies or notice’ principle and the Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty of were carried out onthe Renaissance Dam. Moreo- ÕÊġċiĀ°ÇĀė¬°a¬Āì°ÎÝ°FĀsÇ£F£skĀ°Ă÷s»–ĀÇÎĂĀĂÎĀaÎÇ÷ĂòĎaĂĀ ver, due to the length of the High Dam’s reservoir any work across the Blue Nile, Lake Tana, or the Sobat, as well as the slightness of ground slope (10 cm except after approval by the two downstream countries. per kilometer), alluvium is deposited in the dam’s reservoir within Sudan and several kilometers SECOND: DAMAGE CAUSED BY THE away from Halfa. Thus, claiming the prevention of sedimentation in the High Dam is a desperate RENAISSANCE DAM TO SUDAN s˜ÎòĂĀĂÎĀÝòÎÁÎĂsĀìsĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀÝòηsaĂãĀ Before discussing the damage caused by the Renais- 2. ÷ĀĂÎĀïÝòÎĂsaĂ°Ç£Ā4ĎkFÇĀ–òÎÁĀks÷ĂòĎaĂ°ĕsĀžÎÎk÷ðûĀ sance Dam to Sudan and Egypt, this lengthy introduc- ì°÷Ā°÷ĀÇÎĂĀFĀWsÇs›ĂiĀWĎĂĀFĀÁF·ÎòĀkFÁF£sãĀ@¬sÇĀ tion was necessary to explain the reasons for Ethiopia’s ìsĀ FòsFĀ ΖĀ žÎÎkÝ»F°ÇĀ ksaòsF÷s÷iĀ £òÎĎÇkėFĂsòĀ sudden decision and for the rapid and accelerated im- replenishments decrease and the opportunity of plementation of the Renaissance Dam project—without soil regeneration in the outlying regions is wast- conducting prior studies or adhering to international skãĀ6¬sĀaλ»FĂsòF»ĀkFÁF£sĀΖĀžÎÎk°Ç£ĀÝsò°Îk÷ĀFĂĀ laws or agreements with neighboring countries. Among some of the Nile-adjacent areas is not caused by the most evident damages caused to Sudan, which af- ìsĀžÎÎkiĀWĎĂĀòs÷Ď»Ă÷Ā–òÎÁĀïžF÷¬ĀžÎÎkðĀaFĎ÷skĀWěĀ ›òÁĀìsĀkFÁð÷Ā¬°kksÇĀÎW·saĂ°ĕs÷iĀì°ÎÝ°FĀĕλĎÇĂFò°»ěĀ heavy rainfall within Sudan. The Renaissance sÇĎÁsòFĂskĀìsĀWsÇs›Ă÷ĀΖĀìsĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀ–ÎòĀ Dam does not address this phenomenon; howev- Sudan and Egypt, as in the following summary: er, the solution is domestic to protect populated FòsF÷Ā ė°Ă¬ÎĎĂĀ ėF÷Ă°Ç£Ā ėFĂsò÷Ā ΖĀ žF÷¬Ā žÎÎkiĀ F÷Ā 1. Blocking the alluvium carried by the Blue Nile to part of increasing the Nile revenues. protect the Sudanese dam, the Aswan High Dam ĆãĀ÷Ā ĂÎĀ ï»°Á°Ă°Ç£Ā ìsĀ »ĎsĀ '°»sĀ žÎėĀ ÎÇ»ěĀ ìòÎĎ£¬Ā and irrigation canals from sedimentation problems. its watercourse’; it is primarily a negative im- 2. 0òÎĂsaĂ°Ç£Ā4ĎkFÇĀ–òÎÁĀks÷ĂòĎaĂ°ĕsĀžÎÎk÷ãĀ pact of the Renaissance Dam on Sudan and can- ĆãĀ $°Á°Ă°Ç£ĀìsĀ »ĎsĀ'°»sĀžÎėĀĂÎĀÝF÷÷ÎÇ»ěĀìòÎĎ£¬Ā°Ă÷Ā not be considered positive in any sense. It will watercourse in order to preserve any wastage of bring losses in the Nile-adjacent fertile agricul- the Nile waters. tural lands with an estimated area of more than ãĀ÷ĂFW»°÷¬°Ç£ĀÝÎĂsÇĂ°F»ĀWsÇs›ĂĀ–ÎòĀ4ĎkFÇĀFÇkĀÇs°£¬- þġġġġġĀ–skkFÇ÷ãĀ6¬s÷sĀ»FÇk÷ĀFòsĀòFǹskĀFÁÎÇ£Ā boring countries from the electricity generated by the richest agricultural lands in Sudan and also ìsĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀàþġġġĀÁs£FėFĂĂ÷áã among the highest in production with fruitful trees and arable areas for vegetation. Sudan will On its part, the Sudanese side, which supports the Re- »Î÷sĀFÇĀFÁÎĎÇĂĀΖĀ»FÇk÷ĀsçĎF»ĀĂÎĀœġâĀΖĀìsĀĂÎĂF»Ā ÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀĕλĎÇĂFò°»ěiĀFkkskĀFĀ›–ìĀWsÇs›ĂiĀÇFÁs»ěhĀ F£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»Ā»FÇk÷ãĀ$°Á°Ă°Ç£ĀìsĀžÎėĀΖĀ »ĎsĀ'°»sĀ only through its watercourse will bring losses in 5. Storing Sudan’s share of the Nile waters in the Re- »Îė¯ėFĂsòĀFòsF÷ĀìFĂĀFòsĀΖĀsÇĕ°òÎÇÁsÇĂF»Ā÷°£Ç°›- naissance Dam so that Sudan can withdraw from cance for land and water animals in this region, its share ad hoc and upon request. known as the Dinder National Park. It is a signif- °aFÇĂĀ ĂÎĎò°÷ÁĀ ğÎÇsĀ ìFĂĀ 4ĎkFÇĀ ė°»»Ā »Î÷sĀ kĎsĀ ĂÎĀ All advantages claimed by Ethiopia for Sudan are in the Renaissance Dam construction. The collater- –FaĂĀkFÁF£s÷iĀÇÎĂĀWsÇs›Ă÷iĀFÇkĀìsěĀFòsĀÇÎĂĀWF÷skĀÎÇĀ F»Ā kFÁF£sĀ ΖĀ žÎÎk°Ç£Ā Ýsò°Îk÷Ā °÷Ā ÇÎĂĀ aFĎ÷skĀWěĀ any studies conducted by the Sudanese side. This can ìsĀ'°»sĀžÎÎkiĀWĎĂĀòs÷Ď»Ă÷Ā–òÎÁĀïžF÷¬ĀžÎÎk÷ðĀÎĕsòĀ be explained as follows: dry valleys caused by local heavy rainfall dur- °Ç£Ā FĎĂĎÁÇiĀ FaaÎÁÝFÇě°Ç£Ā ìsĀ žÎÎk°Ç£Ā ΖĀ ìsĀ 1. As to ‘blocking the alluvium carried by the Blue Nile. Thus, claiming the protection of Sudan from Nile waters’; the reality shows that this alluvium žÎÎk÷Ā°÷ĀÇÎĂĀFĀĂòĎsĀ÷ĂÎòěûĀ÷°ÇasĀžÎÎk°Ç£Ā°ÇĀ4ĎkFÇĀ is what composes such rich arable soil in Sudan, is a blessing, not a curse.

38 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships ãĀAs to ‘electricity generation from the Renaissance CONCLUSION Dam’; the amount mentioned in the preliminary òsÝÎòĂ÷ĀÎÇĀìsĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀFòsĀþġġġĀÁs£- The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is fraught with dam- awatts. However, the closing report of the inter- age to the three countries, including Ethiopia. In addi- ÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā 6ò°ÝFòĂ°ĂsĀ 6sa¬Ç°aF»Ā ÎÁÁ°ĂĂssĀ ÎÇĀ ĆÕĀ tion, from an economic perspective, the dam is unvi- &FěĀ ċġÕĆĀ ÷ĂFĂskĀ ìFĂĀ ìsĀ kFÁð÷Ā £sÇsòFĂ°ÎÇĀ ė°»»Ā able for Ethiopia for many reasons, among which are: ÇÎĂĀ sęasskĀ ՐþġĀ Ás£FėFĂĂ÷ãĀ °ĕsÇĀ ì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā current population density of 110 million people 1. The very low amount of electricity generation and that shortage in Ethiopia’s supply of electric- ìFĂĀė°»»ĀÇÎĂĀsęasskĀՐþġĀÁs£FėFĂĂ÷iĀFÇkĀ°Ă÷Ā°Ç- °ĂěĀWěĀFòÎĎÇkĀġâûĀì°÷ĀÁsFÇ÷ĀìFĂĀìsĀs»saĂò°a°- ÷ϙa°sÇaěĀ ĂÎĀ ÁssĂĀ ì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā ÇsskĀ °ÇĀ ìsĀ ÇsFòĀ ty amount generated from the Renaissance Dam future, given the large population, the expected ė°»»Ā ÇÎĂĀ WsĀ sĕsÇĀ ÷ϙa°sÇĂĀ ĂÎĀ ÁssĂĀ ìsĀ ÇsskĀ ΖĀ economic growth after obtaining the electricity Ethiopian people. Not to mention that the dam £sÇsòFĂskĀ–òÎÁĀìsĀkFÁiĀFÇkĀìsĀaĎòòsÇĂĀks›a°ĂĀ will also fall short of covering a fraction of the in electricity supply and thereby Ethiopia’s need Sudanese need for electricity, or of any other for a bigger amount of electricity than that to be country in the region. generated from the Renaissance dam. 5. As to ‘storing Sudan’s share of the Nile waters in 2. The high cost of establishing an electricity grid the Renaissance Dam’; this idea serves only as a in proportion to the population distribution that ·Ď÷Ă°›aFĂ°ÎÇĀ–ÎòĀ›Çk°Ç£Ā»ÎaF»Ā÷ĎÝÝÎòĂĀ–ÎòĀìsĀ2s- equally covers the whole area of the country as naissance Dam construction. Recently, the falsi- inhabitants depend on rain-fed agriculture. ty of this claim has been proven after the latest ĆãĀThe dam sedimentation problem; where the av- declarations by Ethiopian Prime Minister that the erage amount of carried alluvium equals 270 Renaissance Dam is purely Ethiopian, built on million tons per year. Thus, this will lead to a Ethiopian territories with Ethiopian funds. There- shortened life time for the dam, and high cost of fore, this leaves no doubt that the waters of the maintenance for turbine inlets. Renaissance Dam are under the total control and domination of Ethiopian will. Whether the dam collapsed or remained, Sudan and Egypt woul be harmed in both cases. If the dam col- THIRD: DAMAGE CAUSED BY THE RE- lapsed, this would cause full destruction in Sudan and NAISSANCE DAM TO EGYPT loss of the High Dam reservoir basin; while if the dam continued to build, Ethiopia would control the drainage As to the damages of the Renaissance Dam on Egypt, of Blue Nile waters, and thereby would dominate agri- they will be felt on the medium-term basis when a de- aĎ»ĂĎòsĀ°ÇĀ4ĎkFÇĀF÷Āės»»ĀF÷ĀìsĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ĕ°ĂěĀΖĀìsĀsğ°òFĀ crease in the High Dam stored water occurs. Egypt ben- Scheme, the Blue Nile projects and the Main River project. s›Ă÷Ā–òÎÁĀìsĀ°ÇaòsF÷sĀ°ÇĀìsĀFĕsòF£sĀFÇÇĎF»ĀòsĕsÇĎsĀΖĀ ìsĀ'°»sĀėFĂsò÷ĀàWěĀÁÎòsĀìFÇĀ ĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷áûĀ °ĂĀĎĂ°»°ğs÷Āì°÷Ā÷ĎòÝ»Ď÷ĀĂÎĀFkkòs÷÷ĀìsĀÝòÎW»sÁĀΖĀ&sk- Accordingly, although the Renaissance iterranean saltwater intrusion in the Delta region that Dam became a matter of status quo, aÎĕsò÷ĀFWÎĎĂĀ ġâĀΖĀ£ěÝĂð÷ĀF£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»ĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇãĀ s˜ÎòĂ÷ĀFÇkĀsÇksFĕÎò÷Ā÷¬F»»ĀWsĀk°òsaĂ- skĀ °ÇĂÎĀ ĂėÎĀ ÁF°ÇĀ òÎĎĂs÷ãĀ 6¬sĀ ›ò÷ĂĀ °÷Ā Sudan will be also harmed by the decreasing and de- ĂÎĀ sÇ÷ĎòsĀ ÇÎĂĀ ›»»°Ç£Ā ìsĀ 2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀ teriorating stored amount of water in the High Dam Dam before verifying its safety. Stud- since Sudan has a share of stored water in it that comes ies shall be also conducted by inter- from the increase in the Nile revenue by more than national institutions or companies of the average annual revenue. ¬°£¬Ās™a°sÇaěiĀė¬°a¬ĀFòsĀĎÇFÇ°ÁÎĎ÷- ly approved by the three countries. In case the dam collapsed, Egypt will be harmed by the Whereas the second route is represent- huge amount of water and thus by the carried alluvium, ed in the immediate execution of the »sFk°Ç£ĀĂÎĀWFa¹›»»ĀΖĀìsĀ°£¬ĀFÁĀòs÷sòĕΰòiĀks÷ĂòĎa- Tripartite Technical Committee recom- tion of its storage basin, and thereby ending the storage mendations as mentioned in the clos- of irrigation water and the Delta water conservation in °Ç£ĀòsÝÎòĂĀÎÇĀĆÕĀ&FěĀċġÕĆiĀÝFòĂ°aĎ»Fò»ěĀ this reservoir. Due to the slowdown in executing the that recommendation of conducting Tripartite Technical Committee recommendations of environmental, social and econom- formulating joint committee to complete the required ic assessment studies for the Renais- studies, Egypt has conducted independent studies for sance Dam project and its adverse im- assessing the environmental, social and economic im- pacts on the countries located behind pacts of the Renaissance Dam, proving the fact that this the dam. kFÁĀ¬F÷Ā÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀFkĕsò÷sĀs˜saĂ÷ĀÎÇĀ£ěÝĂãĀ

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 39 GERD Failure Analysis and the Impacts on Downstream Countries*

An Article Review by(AIDI%L3HAÃE Researcher at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies

This paper aims to investigate the impacts of the ė°»»ĀWsĀa»F÷÷°›skĀF÷ĀìsĀ–ÎĎòìĀ¬°£¬s÷ĂĀkFÁĀ°ÇĀ–- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) failure ò°aFãĀ÷Ā Ιa°F»»ěĀ ÷ĂFĂskiĀ ìsĀ ÁF°ÇĀ ÎW·saĂ°ĕsĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ on downstream countries: Sudan and Egypt. It clari- new dam is hydropower generation. ›s÷ĀìsĀs˜saĂĀΖĀ2Ā–F°»ĎòsĀÎÇĀìsĀsę°÷Ă°Ç£ĀkFÁ÷iĀ agriculture land and residential areas, within the The GERD is located to the east of the borderline study area; and on the Aswan High Dam as well, by between Ethiopia and Sudan on the Blue Nile as using the International River Interface Cooperative shown in Figure (1). (IRIC) analysis model to simulate the GERD failure.

FIRST: SIGNIFICANCE OF GERD FAIL- URE ANALYSIS )ÇĀ ĆÕĀ &Fòa¬Ā ċġÕÕiĀ ìsĀ aÎÇ÷ĂòĎaĂ°ÎÇĀ ΖĀ FĀ kFÁĀ named ‘Project X’ was announced and it was classi- ›skĀF÷ĀìsĀ»Fò£s÷ĂĀkFÁĀÎÇĀìsĀ »ĎsĀ'°»sĀ2°ĕsòãĀì°- opia’s former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi laid the dam’s foundation stone on 2 April 2011. The dam’s name was changed to the ‘Millennium Dam’ with FĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀĕλĎÁsĀΖĀþĆĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷iĀìsÇĀ the Ethiopian Council of Ministers renamed the dam again on 15 April 2011 to the Grand Ethiopian 2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀà2áiĀė¬°a¬ĀėÎĎ»kĀ÷ĂFÇkĀÕ œĀ ÁsĂsò÷Ā ¬°£¬Ā ė°Ă¬Ā FĀ ĂÎĂF»Ā ĕλĎÁsĀ ΖĀ ü Ā W°»»°ÎÇĀ aĎ- bic meters (including dead and live storage capac- ities). As planned, the dam is designed with a dead ÷ĂÎòF£sĀ aFÝFa°ĂěĀ ΖĀ FWÎĎĂĀ Õ Ā W°»»°ÎÇĀ aĎW°aĀ ÁsĂsò÷iĀ ė¬°a¬ĀaÎòòs÷ÝÎÇk÷ĀĂÎĀFĀksÝìĀΖĀÊġĀÁsĂsò÷ĀÁsF÷- ured from the reservoir bed level. On the other hand, the saddle dam is a traditional embankment dam, with about 55 meters high which will retain FWÎĎĂĀ þġĀ W°»»°ÎÇĀ aĎW°aĀ ÁsĂsò÷Ā ΖĀ ėFĂsòãĀ ěĀ ì°÷iĀ °ĂĀ Figure (1): Location of GERD

40 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships There are several expected impacts on the down- ãĀSeveral small to large cities in Sudan are locat- stream regions; one of the major impacts is that ed just downstream of GERD, including Sudan’s of the surge wave generated due to dam failure capital city: Khartoum—which would be vulnera- or generated in case of rapid dam evacuation as ble to great risks if the dam collapsed. a result of any unforeseen circumstances. Highly devastating impacts are expected to occur in the downstream developed areas, which can cause fa- SECOND: SIMULATION OF THE GERD talities, especially if there is no early warning and FAILURE no emergency evacuation plans. To determine the nature of this impact, the study Thus, the dam failure analysis is very crucial for used an analysis model to simulate the dam many reasons, which are: break, as part of the risk management plan relat- ed to the dam. The study area was divided into 1. 6¬sĀ ¬Ď£sĀ ÷°ğsĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ kFÁiĀ FÇkĀ ìsòsWěĀ ìsĀ °Ç- six reaches as presented in Figure (2), starting aòsF÷sĀ °ÇĀĕs»Îa°ĂěĀ ΖĀìsĀ÷Ďò£sĀėFĕsĀ žÎėĀ °–ĀìsĀ from GERD at the upstream and ending at the As- dam collapsed or cracked. wan High Dam at the downstream.

2. The high risk of soil instability in the site location, 6¬sĀ›ò÷ĂĀòsFa¬Ā°÷ĀWsĂėssÇĀ2ĀFÇkĀìsĀsÇĂòFÇasĀ leading to a high probability of failure associated of Roseires Dam reservoir; while the second with GERD. About 15000 earthquakes are doc- reach is between Roseires Dam and the entrance umented in Ethiopia, and during the twentieth of Sennar Dam reservoir. The third reach is be- asÇĂĎòěiĀ FWÎĎĂĀ ÕþĀ sFòìçĎF¹s÷Ā ė°Ă¬Ā FĀ ÁF£Ç°ĂĎksĀ tween the Sennar Dam and Khartoum City. The ¬°£¬sòĀìFÇĀÎòĀsçĎF»ĀĂÎĀþãœiĀÎaaĎòòskĀ°ÇĀì°ÎÝ°FãĀ fourth reach is between Khartoum City and the aÎÇĂòFaĂ°ÎÇĀFòsFiĀė¬°»sĀìsĀ›–ìĀòsFa¬Ā°÷ĀWsĂėssÇĀ ĆãĀ 4sĕsòF»ĀkFÁ÷ĀFòsĀ»ÎaFĂskĀkÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀΖĀ2iĀ›ĕsĀ the contraction area and the entrance of the Me- ΖĀ ė¬°a¬Ā FòsĀ sęÝsaĂskĀ ĂÎĀ WsĀ F˜saĂskĀ WěĀ ìsĀ kFÁð÷Ā rowe Dam reservoir. The sixth reach is between failure. Three of these dams are located within Su- Merowe Dam and the entrance of Lake Nasser. dan boundaries (i.e., Roseires, Sennar and Merowe); while the remaining two dams are located inside Egypt (i.e., Aswan High Dam and Aswan Reservoir).

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 41 THIRD: IMPACTS OF GERD FAILURE ON SUDANESE DAMS The study concluded that when the GERD fails, the peak discharge at GERD is about two million cu- W°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀÝsòĀ÷saÎÇkiĀFÇkĀÎaaĎò÷ĀF–ĂsòĀ›ĕsĀ¬ÎĎò÷Ā from the beginning of GERD main dam failure. The ÎĎÞÎėĀĕλĎÁsĀ°÷Ā–ÎĎÇkĀĂÎĀWsĀüċãÊġĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀ ÁsĂsò÷iĀòsÝòs÷sÇĂ°Ç£ĀFWÎĎĂĀʐãœâĀΖĀ2ĀaFÝFa°ĂěãĀ ÇĀFkk°Ă°ÎÇiĀìsĀÎĎÞÎėĀ¬ěkòΣòFݬĀFĂĀìsĀkÎėÇ- ÷ĂòsFÁĀ÷saĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀòsFa¬Ā÷¬Îė÷ĀìsĀÝsF¹ĀžÎėĀ F÷ĀÕãĆĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀÝsòĀ÷saÎÇkĀFÇkĀòsFa¬s÷Ā after 11 hours from the beginning of GERD main kFÁĀ–F°»ĎòsûĀė¬°»sĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀėFĂsòĀkòÎÝĀĂÎĀ2Î÷s°òs÷Ā reservoir entrance arrives after six hours from the beginning of GERD main dam failure.

4°Á°»Fò»ěiĀìsĀÎìsòĀ›ĕsĀòsFa¬s÷ĀFòsĀ÷°ÁĎ»FĂskĀFÇkĀ it can be said that water above Roseires, Sennar FÇkĀ&sòÎėsĀFòsĀƜiĀċ ĀFÇkĀþĀÁsĂsò÷Āòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěãĀ ĎòìsòÁÎòsiĀ°ĂĀ°÷ĀĕsòěĀa»sFòĀìFĂĀÝsF¹ĀžÎė÷ĀFòsĀks- creasing toward the downstream, except at Merowe Dam where it is increasing due to Merowe Dam failure and the release of its huge storage, and then it decreases again until reaching the entrance of Lake 'F÷÷sòãĀ6¬sĀÝsF¹Ā°ÇžÎėĀFĂĀ$F¹sĀ'F÷÷sòĀ°÷Ā–ÎĎÇkĀĂÎĀWsĀ ĆþÊÊġĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀÝsòĀ÷saÎÇkiĀòsÝòs÷sÇĂ°Ç£ĀFWÎĎĂĀ ċâĀΖĀìsĀÝsF¹ĀÎĎÞÎėĀFĂĀ2ĀkĎsĀĂÎĀ°Ă÷Ā–F°»ĎòsãĀ Figure (2): Hydraulic Simulation Reaches )ÇĀìsĀÎìsòĀ¬FÇkiĀìsĀ÷ĂĎkěĀ÷¬Îė÷ĀìFĂĀìsĀžÎÎkĀ After the application of the abovementioned meth- water due to Sennar Dam failure, which is located odology and taking the six reaches into consideration, ÎÇĀìsĀ »ĎsĀ'°»siĀžÎė÷Ā»FĂsòF»»ěĀĂÎėFòkĀìsĀ@¬°ĂsĀ the IRIC simulation was developed to be composed Nile and generates a negative surge wave along it. of six separate simulations, one per each reach. The 6¬°÷Āė°»»iĀFaaÎòk°Ç£»ěiĀF˜saĂĀ"FWF»Āė»°ěFĀFÁĀė¬°a¬Ā total length of the developed simulation was about may be failed to. ċþüġĀ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷iĀė¬°»sĀìsĀ»sÇ£Ă¬ĀΖĀsFa¬ĀòsFa¬Ā°÷Ā presented in Table (1). During the study phases, the òs÷Ď»Ă÷ĀΖĀ–ÎĎòìĀFÇkĀ›–ìĀòsFa¬s÷ĀėsòsĀ·Î°ÇskĀ–ÎòĀ FOURTH: IMPACTS OF GERD FAILURE simplicity. ON ASWAN HIGH DAM The study developed several scenarios for the impact REACH FROM TO LENGTH (km) of GERD failure on the Aswan High Dam, and four 1GERDRoseires Dam ÕċĆ initial water levels in Lake Nasser were simulated 2 Roseires Dam Sennar Dam ċÊü Ć Sennar Dam Khartoum City ĆÊ as follows: Khartoum City Contraction Area Êü 5 Contraction Area Merowe Dam þüþ 1. ĂĀìsĀėFĂsòĀ»sĕs»ĀΖĀÕ üĀÁsĂsò÷iĀsçĎ°ĕF»sÇĂĀĂÎĀğsòÎĀ þ Merowe Dam Lake Nasser 1088 live storage (empty reservoir). Total Length 2670 2. ĂĀìsĀėFĂsòĀ»sĕs»ĀΖĀÕþþĀÁsĂsò÷iĀsçĎ°ĕF»sÇĂĀFĀ»°ĕsĀ storage of 50 billion cubic meters (half-full reser- Table (1): Lengths of the simulated reaches voir). ĆãĀAt the water level of 175 meters, which are used in The study calculated the breach opening dimensions the Aswan High Dam operation rule as the max- in the case of dam break, and they were found to be °ÁĎÁĀ ÷ĂÎòF£sĀ »sĕs»Ā Ws–ÎòsĀ žÎÎkĀ ÷sF÷ÎÇ÷Ā àžÎÎkĀ üœġĀÁsĂsò÷Ā–ÎòĀFĕsòF£sĀWòsFa¬Āė°kìûĀÕċĆĀÁsĂsò÷Ā–ÎòĀ control). ksÝìĀĂÎĀ›ÇF»ĀWòsFa¬Ās»sĕFĂ°ÎÇûĀFÇkĀFWÎĎĂĀþãüĀ¬ÎĎò÷Ā ãĀAt the water level of 178 meters, equivalent to the for the formation time. The way and the limit GERD spillway crest level (full reservoir). failure impacts on the existing dams, agriculture land 5. ĂĀsFa¬ĀėFĂsòĀ»sĕs»iĀìsòsĀFòsĀ–ÎĎòĀ°ÇžÎėĀ¬ěkòÎ- and residential areas, as well as on the Aswan High graphs considered as follows: Dam, are explained in what follows. þãĀ6¬sĀ›ò÷ĂĀ°ÇžÎėĀ¬ěkòΣòFݬĀ°÷ĀsçĎF»ĀĂÎĀìsĀžÎėĀ hydrograph due to the failure of GERD and other

42 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships kFÁ÷iĀÎÇ»ěĀė°Ă¬ÎĎĂĀFkk°Ă°ÎÇF»Āòs£Ď»FòĀžÎėãĀ about three weeks from the beginning of GERD failure. 7. Regarding the second to fourth cases, failure hydro- 6¬sĀ°ÇžÎėĀĂÎĀ$F¹sĀ'F÷÷sòĀ°÷ĀFWÎĎĂĀìòssĀĂ°Ás÷ĀìsĀÁFę- graphs were assumed to occur during low, average °ÁĎÁĀ°ÇžÎėĀFĂĀėsĂĀ÷sF÷ÎÇ÷}s÷Ă°ÁFĂskĀFĂĀFWÎĎĂĀÕĆġġġĀ FÇkĀ¬°£¬ĀžÎÎkĀ÷sF÷ÎÇ÷Āòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěãĀ cubic meters per second). Thus, it may be harmful to the Aswan High Dam body. In light of the above, sixteen scenarios are consid- ĆãĀThe simulation shows that the Sudanese dams: Roseires, sòskĀ°ÇĀì°÷Ā÷ĂĎkě}ė°Ă¬Ā÷asÇFò°Î÷ĀàÕáĀĂÎĀà áĀF÷÷°£ÇskĀ Sennar and Merowe dams will be washed out due to for the empty reservoir; scenarios from (5) to (8) as- GERD failure. ÷°£ÇskĀ–ÎòĀìsĀ¬F»–¯–Ď»»Āòs÷sòĕΰòûĀ÷asÇFò°Î÷ĀàÊáĀĂÎĀàÕċáĀ ãĀ#¬FòĂÎĎÁĀ °ĂěĀė°»»ĀWsĀžÎÎkskĀWěĀFĀėFĂsòĀksÝìĀΖĀFWÎĎĂĀ ksĕÎĂskĀĂÎĀÁFę°ÁĎÁĀ÷ĂÎòF£sĀWs–ÎòsĀžÎÎkĀ÷sF÷ÎÇ÷ûĀ ÕġĀ ĂÎĀ ՜Ā ÁsĂsò÷Ā FWÎĕsĀ ÇFĂĎòF»Ā £òÎĎÇkĀ »sĕs»ãĀ6¬sĀ žÎÎkĀ FÇkĀ÷asÇFò°Î÷Ā–òÎÁĀàÕĆáĀĂÎĀàÕþáĀksĕÎĂskĀĂÎĀ÷Ý°»»ėFěĀ water due to GERD failure will arrive at Khartoum City crest level. A simulation of all scenarios was carried within four days from the beginning of GERD failure, out for one year, starting in August and ending in and will reach its maximum depth within two days at July. The assessment of the sixteen scenarios reveals most. Khartoum City will be in a severe condition shortly the following outcomes: after GERD failure and will be converted into a large lake during six days only from the beginning of GERD failure. 1. 6¬sòsĀ°÷ĀÇÎĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀk°˜sòsÇasĀWsĂėssÇĀ2Ā 5. 6¬sĀžÎÎkĀėFĂsòĀkĎsĀĂÎĀ4sÇÇFòĀFÁĀ–F°»ĎòsĀÁFěĀ£sÇsò- main or saddle dam failure regarding the impact ate another negative surge wave that may destruct Jabal on the Aswan High Dam. Awliya Dam in Sudan. 2. There are no negative impacts on the Aswan High þãĀRegarding the impacts on the Aswan High Dam, it de- FÁĀFÇkĀ°Ă÷ĀkÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀžÎÎkÝ»F°Ç÷ĀFÇkĀ÷ĂòĎa- pends on the water level in Lake Nasser at the time of tures due to GERD failure in case of empty Aswan GERD failure. In case Lake Nasser is full or near full, the High Dam reservoir. kFÁĀWÎkěĀė°»»ĀWsĀFĂĀò°÷¹ĀFÇkĀÁFěĀ÷ϘsòĀ÷sĕsòsĀkFÁF£sãĀ ĆãĀThere is a severe impact on the Aswan High Dam 7. Also, the downstream properties will be at risk, especial- FÇkĀ°Ă÷ĀkÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀžÎÎkÝ»F°Ç÷ĀFÇkĀ÷ĂòĎaĂĎòs÷Ā°ÇĀ ly the Aswan reservoir and all crossing structures along case of the full reservoir. the Nile River from Aswan to Alexandria, in addition to ãĀIn case of the half-full reservoir, the downstream devastating risks to land and human lives due to a high žÎÎkÝ»F°Ç÷ĀFÇkĀ÷ĂòĎaĂĎòs÷Āė°»»ĀWsĀFĂĀò°÷¹ĀFĂĀ4asÇFò°ÎĀ release from Lake Nasser which may exceed the cross àá}òsÝòs÷sÇĂ°Ç£ĀÁFę°ÁĎÁĀWF÷sĀžÎė}F÷ĀìsĀÎĎĂ- sections capacity. žÎėĀìòÎĎ£¬ĀĂĎÇÇs»÷Āsęassk÷ĀìsĀ÷F–sĀžÎėãĀ 5. In case of maximum water level at the beginning of the water year (175.0 meters), the downstream will be at risk in Scenarios from (10) to (12)—rep- resenting minimum, average and maximum base žÎėĀòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěûĀė¬°»sĀìsĀkFÁĀWÎkěĀė°»»ĀWsĀFĂĀ risk only in Scenario (12)—representing maximum WF÷sĀžÎėãĀ)ÇĀìsĀÎìsòĀ¬FÇkiĀìsĀkFÁĀWÎkěĀFÇkĀ °Ă÷ĀkÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀė°»»ĀWsĀ÷F–sĀ°ÇĀaF÷sĀΖĀ4asÇFò°ÎĀàÊáãĀ þãĀThe emergency spillway has to work in Scenarios àÕċáiĀà՜áĀFÇkĀàÕþáiĀė¬°a¬Ā°ÇaòsF÷s÷ĀìsĀò°÷¹ĀĂÎĀìsĀ kÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀžÎÎkÝ»F°Ç÷ĀFÇkĀ÷ĂòĎaĂĎòs÷ãĀ 7. Toshka spillway capacity has to be increased, with ìsĀÁ°Ç°ÁĎÁĀ÷Ý°»»ėFěĀė°kìĀFĂĀĆġġġĀÁsĂsò÷iĀĂÎĀ provide additional protection to the Aswan High FÁĀFÇkĀ°Ă÷ĀkÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀžÎÎkÝ»F°Ç÷ĀFÇkĀ÷ĂòĎa- tures from the risk of GERD failure.

FIFTH: FINAL CONCLUSIONS 1. The study’s literature review and the collected data show that GERD has high failure probability due to the geological nature of its location. This paper is an article review of a research study entitled “GERD Failure Analysis 2. GERD failure simulation shows that the peak out- and the Impacts on Downstream Countries” by Ahmed H. Soliman, Alaa el- žÎėĀFĂĀ2ĀFÝÝòÎFa¬skĀĂėÎĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷Ā Zawahry and Hesham Bekhit; in Abdelazim M. Negm, and Sommer Abdel-Fattah ÝsòĀ÷saÎÇkiĀFÇkĀÎaaĎòòskĀė°Ă¬°ÇĀ›ĕsĀ¬ÎĎò÷Ā–òÎÁĀ (eds.), Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam versus Aswan High Dam: A View from the beginning of GERD failure. In addition, the peak Egypt (Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2019), pp. 197-230. DOI: 10.1007/698_2017_135. °ÇžÎėĀFĂĀìsĀsÇĂòFÇasĀΖĀ$F¹sĀ'F÷÷sòĀFÝÝòÎFa¬skĀ ĆüġġġĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀÝsòĀ÷saÎÇkiĀFÇkĀÎaaĎòòskĀė°Ă¬Ā

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 43 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Agriculture and the Rural Poor in Egypt*

An Article Review by Nesreen AlSabahe Researcher at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies

This study seeks to provide an overview of þ Ā W°»»°ÎÇĀ aĎW°aĀ ÁsĂsò÷Ā ÝsòĀ ěsFòiĀ ΖĀ ė¬°a¬Ā œœãœĀ ìsĀ°ÁÝFaĂ÷ĀΖĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀ›»»°Ç£ĀΖĀìsĀòFÇkĀ billion cubic meters are from the Nile River (about Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the rural œâĀ FòsĀ òsas°ĕskĀ –òÎÁĀ ìsĀ ì°ÎÝ°FÇĀ °£¬»FÇk÷Ā ÝÎÎòĀ°ÇĀ£ěÝĂĀWěĀFÇF»ěğ°Ç£ĀìsĀÁFaòÎĀFÇkĀÁ°aòÎĀ ìòÎĎ£¬Ā ìsĀ »ĎsĀ '°»siĀ FÇkĀ FWÎĎĂĀ ՜âĀ –òÎÁĀ ìsĀ level impacts. To this end, three scenarios—i.e. four- @¬°ĂsĀ'°»sáiĀ°ÇĀFkk°Ă°ÎÇĀĂÎĀFWÎĎĂĀÕãĆĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀ year, six-year and eight-year scenarios—have been meters of rainfall and about 7 billion cubic meters ksĕs»ÎÝskĀ –ÎòĀ ìsĀ kĎòFĂ°ÎÇĀ ΖĀ ›»»°Ç£Ā ìsĀ kFÁð÷Ā of groundwater. But, rainfall and groundwater are reservoir. The macro level assessment shows the limited and cannot be relied upon, and thereby s˜saĂ÷ĀΖĀF££òs£FĂskĀėFĂsòĀFÇkĀF£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»Ā»FÇkĀ Egypt is highly dependent on the Nile River for reductions on crop values, imports, exports and all economic and service activities, particularly employment, as well as on the government’s pol- F£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòsĀ ė¬°a¬Ā F»ÎÇsĀ Ď÷s÷Ā FWÎĎĂĀ ġâĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ °aěĀĂÎĀ÷F–s£ĎFòkĀ÷s»–¯÷ϙa°sÇaěĀ°ÇĀ÷ĂòFĂs£°aĀaòÎÝ÷ãĀ freshwater from the Nile. On the other hand, the micro level analysis shows GERD’s impact on Egyptian farmers (landowners £ò°aĎ»ĂĎòsĀ Ý»Fě÷Ā FĀ ĕsòěĀ ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ òλsĀ °ÇĀ ìsĀ and laborers) in governorates with high poverty £ěÝĂ°FÇĀsaÎÇÎÁěûĀ°ĂĀaÎÇĂò°WĎĂs÷ĀÕÕãĆâĀΖĀìsĀĂÎĂF»Ā òFĂs÷iĀ°ÇĀ$ÎėsòĀFÇkĀ9ÝÝsòĀ£ěÝĂiĀ°ÇĀÎòksòĀĂÎĀ–Îò- 0ĀFÇkĀÕĆãÕâĀΖĀìsĀÇÎǯΰ»Ā0Ā°ÇĀċġÕ ÿċġ՜ãĀ mulate response strategies that take into account, Though decreasing in some years, the agricultural and sustain, their livelihoods. sector continues to grow at a rate of no less than ĆâĀÝsòĀěsFòãĀÇĀFkk°Ă°ÎÇiĀ°ÇkĎ÷Ăò°s÷Āòs»FĂskĀĂÎĀF£ò°- aĎ»ĂĎòsĀFaaÎĎÇĂĀ–ÎòĀÕþâĀΖĀìsĀĂÎĂF»Ā0ãĀ6¬sĀ÷¬FòsĀ FIRST: THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ΖĀF£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòsĀ°ÇĀsęÝÎòĂ÷ĀFaaÎĎÇĂ÷Ā–ÎòĀFWÎĎĂĀÕġãĆâĀ AND FOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN ΖĀĂÎĂF»ĀsęÝÎòĂ÷iĀFÇkĀFWÎĎĂĀ՜âĀΖĀÇÎÇÝsĂòλsĎÁĀ EGYPT sęÝÎòĂ÷Ā°ÇĀċġ՜ÿċġÕþãĀ Egypt mainly depends on agriculture for providing Agriculture also provides livelihoods for about food and employing the majority of the workforce. œġâĀàœġĀÁ°»»°ÎÇáĀΖĀìsĀÝÎÝĎ»FĂ°ÎÇĀ»°ĕ°Ç£Ā°ÇĀòĎòF»Ā However, the agricultural sector is currently facing £ěÝĂûĀ°ĂĀk°òsaĂ»ěĀsÁÝ»Îě÷ĀFWÎĎĂĀĆġâĀΖĀìsĀ»FWÎòĀ many challenges, on top of which is the challenge force—about 7 million Egyptians—in addition to of water scarcity, i.e. limited water sources avail- those indirectly employed in agriculture-related able within its borders and its dependency on an °ÇkĎ÷Ăò°s÷ãĀ6¬sĀF£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòsĀ»FÇkĀaÎĕsò÷ĀFWÎĎĂĀ âĀ ÎĎĂ÷°ksĀėFĂsòĀ÷ÎĎòasĀ–ÎòĀÁÎòsĀìFÇĀÊġâĀΖĀ°Ă÷ĀĎ÷s÷ãĀ ΖĀìsĀĂÎĂF»ĀFòsFĀ°ÇĀ£ěÝĂiĀ°ãsãĀFWÎĎĂĀÊĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀ–sk- The annual freshwater supply in Egypt is about dans. The cropping area per year is about 15 mil-

44 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships lion feddans—of which about 7 million feddans SECOND: THE GERD RESERVIOR FILL- FòsĀaϻðĕFĂskĀ°ÇĀė°ÇĂsòĀFÇkĀþĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀ–skkFÇ÷Ā°ÇĀ ING SCENARIO: MACRO AND MICRO summer, as well as about 2 million feddans of IMPLICATIONS permanent trees. Filling the GERD reservoir is expected to impact water availability and agricultural production in Over the past few decades, the Egyptian Govern- Egypt. But the severity of these impacts is to vary ÁsÇĂĀ¬F÷ĀWssÇĀìò°ĕ°Ç£ĀĂÎĀFa¬°sĕsĀ÷s»–¯÷ϙa°sÇaěĀ ksÝsÇk°Ç£ĀÎÇĀìsĀÇĎÁWsòĀΖĀ›»»°Ç£ĀěsFò÷iĀF÷÷ĎÁ°Ç£Ā in strategic crops, such as wheat, sugar crops, and that the annual reductions are to be only deducted oil crops and clover, to meet increased local food from Egypt’s annual share of the Nile waters. The demands. This is achieved by pursuing a strategy expected share of water is determined by dividing based on growing more food, and by implement- ìsĀĂÎĂF»Ā2Ā÷ĂÎòF£sĀaFÝFa°ĂěiĀs÷Ă°ÁFĂskĀFĂĀü Ā °Ç£ĀĕsòĂ°aF»ĀFÇkĀ¬Îò°ğÎÇĂF»ĀsęÝFÇ÷°ÎÇĀìòÎĎ£¬Ā°Ç- billion cubic meters, over the years of scenario, creasing land productivity in the Nile Valley and ìsÇĀkskĎaĂ°Ç£ĀìsĀòFĂsĀΖĀFÇÇĎF»Ā›»»°Ç£Ā–òÎÁĀœœãœĀ Delta and adding new productive lands. About billion cubic meters, as shown in the following three million feddans have been added through three scenarios: land reclamation over the past 50 years, and that is to make sure that strategic crops are cultivated • Scenario one: A four-year scenario where Egypt’s for domestic consumption. annual water share decreases by 18.5 billion cu- W°aĀÁsĂsò÷iĀFÇkĀ°ĂĀòsas°ĕs÷ĀFWÎĎĂĀĆüĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀ However, these endeavors have not been enough meters per year. ĂÎĀFa¬°sĕsĀĂÎĂF»Ā–ÎÎkĀ÷s»–¯÷ϙa°sÇaěĀF÷Ā£ěÝĂĀ°Á- ÝÎòĂ÷ĀFWÎĎĂĀ ġâĀΖĀ°Ă÷ĀasòsF»÷iĀė°Ă¬ĀFÇĀ°ÇaòsF÷sĀ • Scenario two: A six-year scenario where Egypt’s –òÎÁĀÕġĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀĂÎÇ÷Ā°ÇĀċġÕċĀĂÎĀFWÎĎĂĀÕþĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀ annual water share decreases by more than 12 tons in 2015. Wheat imports also increased from W°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷iĀFÇkĀ°ĂĀòsas°ĕs÷ĀFWÎĎĂĀ ĆĀW°»- FWÎĎĂĀüĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀĂÎÇ÷Ā°ÇĀÕÊʐĀĂÎĀÊã ĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀĂÎÇ÷Ā°ÇĀ lion cubic meters per year. ċġ՜ûĀė¬°»sĀÁF°ğsĀ°ÁÝÎòĂ÷Ā°ÇaòsF÷skĀ–òÎÁĀþãĀÁ°»- lion tons in 2012 to 8 million tons in 2015. Though • Scenario three: An eight-year scenario where ΰ»ĀaòÎÝ÷ĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇĀ°ÇaòsF÷skĀWěĀFWÎĎĂĀ՜âiĀFÇkĀ Egypt’s annual water share decreases by about FWÎĎĂĀĆġâĀΖĀsk°W»sĀΰ»÷ĀFòsĀ°ÁÝÎòĂskãĀĀ ÊãĆĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷iĀFÇkĀ°ĂĀòsas°ĕs÷ĀFWÎĎĂĀ þĀ billion cubic meters per year.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 45 These three scenarios assume the regularity of rain- ï4asÇFò°ÎĀ 6¬òssðĀ òskĎas÷Ā ìsĀ ›s»kĀ aòÎÝÝ°Ç£Ā FòsFĀ fall on Ethiopia’s highlands, no climate change, and WěĀFWÎĎĂĀċÕâiĀFÇkĀsęÝÎòĂĀ»Î÷÷s÷ĀòsÁF°ÇĀFĂĀþüâãĀ unchanged water use/consumption by Sudan during Working days available for agricultural laborers ìsĀěsFò÷ĀΖĀ›»»°Ç£ãĀ FòsĀòskĎaskĀWěĀFWÎĎĂĀĆÕâĀFÇkĀFWÎĎĂĀċÕâĀΖĀ»FÇk- owners are impacted. Accordingly, based on these scenarios, there will be respective reductions in the water available for Furthermore, the three scenarios decrease the nation- F£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòsiĀÝFòĂ°aĎ»Fò»ěĀ–ÎòĀìsĀaϻðĕFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀ›s»kĀ F»ĀòsĕsÇĎs÷Ā–òÎÁĀ›s»kĀaòÎÝ÷ðĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇĀWěĀ üãœâiĀ crops excluding permanent trees. Calculations of the ƐâĀFÇkĀċüâiĀFÁÎĎÇĂ°Ç£ĀFWÎĎĂĀÇ°ÇsiĀ÷sĕsÇĀFÇkĀ›ĕsĀ scenarios impacts were based on a cropping area of W°»»°ÎÇĀ94Ākλ»Fò÷Āòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěãĀ6¬sĀòskĎaĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀF£ò°- FWÎĎĂĀÕĆĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀ–skkFÇ÷ĀWěĀĎ÷°Ç£ĀìsĀkFĂFĀFĕF°»FW»sĀ aĎ»ĂĎòF»ĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇĀÇs£FĂ°ĕs»ěĀF˜saĂ÷Ā°ÇkĎ÷Ăò°s÷Āks- in the Annual Bulletin of Statistical Crop Area and pending on locally produced agricultural crops, and 0»FÇĂĀ0òÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇĀ°ÇĀċġÕ ÿċġ՜iĀ°÷÷ĎskĀWěĀìsĀ sÇĂòF»Ā thus increases imports as well as local food prices. £sÇaěĀ–ÎòĀ0ĎW»°aĀ&ÎW°»°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀ4ĂFĂ°÷Ă°a÷Āà 0- Moreover, leaving fertile land fallow reduces ag- &4áãĀ6¬sĀFĕF°»FW»sĀėFĂsòĀòskĎaĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā–ÎòĀ›s»kĀaòÎÝ÷Ā ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»ĀsÁÝ»ÎěÁsÇĂĀFÇkĀF˜saĂ÷ĀìsĀ»°ĕs»°¬ÎÎk÷Ā were determined as follows: of landowners, thus contributes to the eruptions of unrests and the increase of crime levels. • Scenario one òskĎas÷ĀìsĀėFĂsòĀ÷¬FòsĀ–òÎÁĀ ġĀ ĂÎĀċþãþĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ã 2- Impacts of Water Shortage on the • Scenario twoĀòskĎas÷ĀìsĀėFĂsòĀ÷¬FòsĀĂÎĀĆÕĀW°»- lion cubic meters. Micro Level • Scenario threeĀ òskĎas÷Ā ìsĀ ėFĂsòĀ ÷¬FòsĀ ĂÎĀ ĆĆĀ By applying the Egyptian government’s policy con- billion cubic meters. cerning strategic crops cultivation based on the three water reduction scenarios, adverse impacts emerge Water reductions have far-reaching impacts on the in varying degrees on the micro level according to macro and micro levels, which are addressed in the ìsĀ÷asÇFò°ÎĀFkÎÝĂskãĀï4asÇFò°ÎĀÎÇsðĀòsžsaĂ÷ĀìFĂĀF£ò°- following sections: aĎ»ĂĎòF»Ā»FÇk÷Ā°ÇĀk°˜sòsÇĂĀ£ÎĕsòÇÎòFĂs÷ĀFòsĀF˜saĂskãĀ ĎĂiĀ s¬s°òFiĀ¬FòW°FĀFÇkĀ&sÇϛFĀFòsĀòFǹskĀìsĀ 1- Impacts of Water Shortage on the highest by leaving a high percentage of their land –F»»ÎėiĀ ĆâiĀ ġâĀFÇkĀĆÊãœâĀòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěĀWsaFĎ÷sĀΖĀ Macro Level areas cultivated with clover and vegetables. Labor- 4°ÇasĀċġġiĀìsĀ÷s»–¯÷ϙa°sÇaěĀÝλ°aěĀ¬F÷ĀWssÇĀ£°ĕsÇĀ sò÷ĀFòsĀF˜saĂskĀ°ÇĀĂsòÁ÷ĀΖĀòskĎaskĀėÎò¹°Ç£ĀkFě÷Ā an increased attention by the Egyptian Government throughout all governorates, but they are highest in due to international food crises, and thereby the Egyp- Beheira, Kafr al-Shiekh and Aswan because of their tian Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy cultivation of labor-intensive crops: cotton, vegeta- ėF÷ĀÝĎĂĀWěĀìsĀ£ÎĕsòÇÁsÇĂĀ°ÇĀċġġÊiĀė°Ă¬ĀFĀÁF·ÎòĀÝò°- bles and sugar crops (sugar beet in Beheira and Kafr Îò°ĂěĀ£°ĕsÇĀĂÎĀ–ÎÎkĀ÷s»–¯÷ϙa°sÇaěĀ°ÇĀ÷ĂòFĂs£°aĀaòÎÝ÷ãĀ al-Sheikh, and sugarcane in Aswan). That is why the Egyptian agricultural production is F˜saĂskĀWěĀìsĀ÷ĂÎòF£sĀΖĀ »ĎsĀ'°»sĀėFĂsò÷ĀWs¬°ÇkĀ ï4asÇFò°ÎĀ 6ėÎðĀ òsžsaĂ÷Ā ìFĂĀ ìsĀ FòsFĀ ΖĀ aϻðĕFĂskĀ ìsĀ2iĀĎÇksòĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£Ā÷asÇFò°ÎĀFkÎÝĂskãĀ »FÇk÷Ā °÷Ā òskĎaskĀ °ÇĀ k°˜sòsÇĂĀ £ÎĕsòÇÎòFĂs÷iĀ ė¬sòsĀ s¬s°òFiĀ¬FòW°FĀFÇkĀ&sÇϛFĀFòsĀìsĀÁÎ÷ĂĀF˜saĂskĀ Assuming the application of ‘Scenario one’, the °ÇĀĂsòÁ÷ĀΖĀaϻðĕFĂskĀFòsFĀòskĎaĂ°ÎÇĀWěĀĆþãœâiĀĆĆâĀ aòÎÝÝ°Ç£ĀFòsFĀΖĀ›s»kĀaòÎÝ÷Ā°÷ĀòskĎaskĀWěĀFWÎĎĂĀ FÇkĀĆċãœâĀòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěãĀ6¬sĀÝsòasÇĂF£sĀΖĀF˜saĂskĀ ĆþãœâĀ FÇkĀ ìsĀ sęÝÎòĂ÷Ā WěĀ Êġâ}°Ça»Ďk°Ç£Ā ÷Ď£FòĀ landowners peaks in Kafr al-Shiekh, Gharbia and crops which are often used to satisfy local demand, FěÎĎÁûĀė¬°»sĀ»FWÎòsò÷Ā–òÎÁĀ s¬s°òFiĀ&sÇϛFĀFÇkĀ as well as vegetables, cotton, medicinal herbs and ¬FòW°FĀFòsĀF˜saĂskĀìsĀÁÎ÷ĂĀWěĀòskĎa°Ç£Ā âiĀƜâĀ ÝĎ»÷s÷ãĀ6¬°÷Ā÷asÇFò°ÎĀF»÷ÎĀF˜saĂ÷Ā»°ĕs÷ĂÎa¹ĀÝòÎkĎa- FÇkĀƜâĀΖĀėÎò¹°Ç£ĀkFě÷Āòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěã tion due to the non-cultivation of clover, and farm- ers’ agricultural income by reducing the percentage ï4asÇFò°ÎĀìòssðĀòsžsaĂ÷ĀaϻðĕFĂskĀ»FÇkĀòskĎaĂ°ÎÇĀ°ÇĀ ΖĀėÎò¹°Ç£ĀkFě÷ĀWěĀFWÎĎĂĀ ġâiĀÇs£FĂ°ĕs»ěĀF˜saĂ°Ç£Ā k°˜sòsÇĂĀ£ÎĕsòÇÎòFĂs÷iĀÎÇĀĂÎÝĀΖĀė¬°a¬ĀFòsĀ s¬s°- FWÎĎĂĀĆþâĀΖĀ»FÇkÎėÇsò÷ãĀ òFiĀ¬FòW°FĀFÇkĀ&sÇϛFĀė°Ă¬ĀFWÎĎĂĀċüâiĀċċâĀFÇkĀ ÕÊâĀòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěãĀ@¬°»siĀìsĀÝsòasÇĂF£sĀΖĀF˜saĂskĀ ‘Scenario two’ reduces the cropping area by about landowners peaks in Kafr al-Sheikh, Gharbia and ċÊâiĀė°Ă¬ĀsęÝÎòĂĀ»Î÷÷s÷ĀΖĀFWÎĎĂĀþüâiĀ°Ça»Ďk°Ç£Ā FěÎĎÁiĀė°Ă¬ĀFĀòskĎaĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀFWÎĎĂĀċâiĀċ âĀFÇkĀ vegetables, cotton, medicinal herbs and pulses. It ċÕâĀòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěãĀ£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»ĀėÎò¹sò÷Ā°ÇĀìsĀìòssĀ òskĎas÷ĀėÎò¹°Ç£ĀkFě÷ĀWěĀFWÎĎĂĀĆĆâĀFÇkĀF˜saĂ÷Ā £ÎĕsòÇÎòFĂs÷ĀFòsĀF»÷ÎĀìsĀÁÎ÷ĂĀF˜saĂskĀWěĀìsĀòs- FWÎĎĂĀċÊâĀ»FÇkÎėÇsò÷ãĀ kĎaĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀėÎò¹°Ç£ĀkFě÷ĀWěĀFWÎĎĂĀ ġâiĀĆġâĀFÇkĀ ĆġâĀòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěãĀĀ

46 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships )ĕsòF»»iĀ›Çk°Ç£÷Ā÷¬ÎėĀìFĂĀìsĀìòssĀ÷asÇFò°Î÷ĀF˜saĂĀ some rural household members to migrate to ur- some governorates more than others. The most af- ban areas in search of job opportunities in other fected governorates are Beheira, Gharbia and Men- sectors than the agricultural sector. ϛFĀ°ÇĀĂsòÁ÷ĀΖĀaϻðĕFĂskĀ»FÇkĀòskĎaĂ°ÎÇûĀ#F–òĀF»¯ 4¬s°¹¬iĀFěÎĎÁĀFÇkĀ¬FòW°FĀ°ÇĀĂsòÁ÷ĀΖĀF˜saĂskĀ landowners; and Beheira and Kafr al-Sheikh in terms FOURTH: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOM- of reduction of agricultural working days. MENDATIONS 6¬sĀ F÷÷s÷÷ÁsÇĂĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ °ÁÝFaĂ÷Ā ΖĀ 2Ā ›»»°Ç£Ā ÎÇĀ THIRD: THE SUSTAINABLE LIVELI- Egypt under the three scenarios showed that water ÷¬ÎòĂF£sĀ÷sĕsòs»ěĀF˜saĂ÷ĀF£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»ĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇiĀìsĀ HOOD FRAMEWORK Egyptian economy as a whole, and the local farming Livelihoods assets are resources that farmers own communities as well. On the macro level, there would or have access to that enable them to attain their be trade imbalance and increase of unemployment »°ĕs»°¬ÎÎkĀ ÎĎĂaÎÁs÷ãĀ 6¬s÷sĀ FòsĀ aÎÁÝÎ÷skĀ ΖĀ ›ĕsĀ among agricultural laborers; while on the micro level, assets: human assets including farmers’ capacities; impacts vary on landowners and laborers between natural assets referring to access to land and water; governorates and within governorates. The livelihood physical assets constituting equipment and technol- strategies followed by farmers have a bearing on the ogies; social assets addressing social relations and ÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā–ÎÎkĀ÷s»–¯÷ϙa°sÇaěiĀÇFĂ°ÎÇF»ĀWĎk£sĂiĀ÷Îa°F»Ā F™»°FĂ°ÎÇ÷ûĀFÇkĀ›ÇFÇa°F»ĀF÷÷sĂ÷ĀaÎÇĂF°Ç°Ç£Ā–FòÁsòð÷Ā stability, as well as the viability of agricultural land. capital base. In the following sections, the farmers’ Hence, these strategies need to be accounted for in livelihood strategies are addressed under the three any impact assessment as the neglect thereof would scenarios, where farming households’ strategies to among others exacerbate the following: deal with water reductions are based on their assets and on government’s policies: • Deterioration of agricultural land fertility by the il- legal irrigation from drains and the drilling of wells. 1. !GRICULTURAL INTENSIÃCATION: Water shortage ėÎĎ»kĀ »sFkĀ –FòÁsò÷Ā ĂÎĀ ÁFę°Á°ğsĀ ÝòÎkĎaĂ°ĕ°- • Increased building on agricultural land, which ty since they are not willing to leave their land would cause its permanent loss and decrease job fallow, even for one season, particularly small opportunities. farmers whose livelihood depends on agricultur- F»Ā °ÇaÎÁsãĀ 6¬sěĀ ėÎĎ»kiĀ ìĎ÷iĀ ÷ss¹Ā ĂÎĀ ÁFę°Á°ğsĀ • 9÷sĀ ΖĀ asòsF»÷iĀ ÝFòĂ°aĎ»Fò»ěĀ ė¬sFĂĀ F÷Ā FÇ°ÁF»Ā ìsĀ ÎĎĂÝĎĂĀ ìòÎĎ£¬Ā F£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»Ā °ÇĂsÇ÷°›aFĂ°ÎÇĀ –sskiĀF˜saĂ°Ç£ĀìsĀÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā–ÎÎkĀ÷s»–¯÷ϙa°sÇaěãĀ by increasing the use of agricultural inputs, such F÷Ā»FÇkiĀėFĂsòiĀ»FWÎòĀFÇkĀ–sòĂ°»°ğsò÷ãĀFòÁsò÷ĀF»÷ÎĀ • Fueling unplanned internal migration as well as would tend to irrigate using their mobile pumps to causing social illness as a consequence of losing reduce water quantities received by tail-end farm- agricultural jobs, as well as the increased illegal ers, and foster the role agricultural cooperatives in migration to Europe. monitoring the equal distribution of water among farmers, in addition to cultivating non-traditional crops with high net returns, intended for export, Overall, the assessment of GERD im- to help access alternative water sources. pacts should not be limited to agricul- tural production, but should be com- 2. $IVERSIÃCATION: Water shortage and low agricul- plemented by an examination of the ture income would force farmers to seek to diver- impacts on the rural poor. This would sify their income sources further through investing help accurately understand the im- more in livestock breeding and renting assets, as pacts, as well as consider adaptation well as other non-farm income sources. Constrain- strategies to improve farmers’ resil- °Ç£ĀìsĀaϻðĕFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀa»ÎĕsòĀėÎĎ»kĀF»÷ÎĀF˜saĂĀìsĀ ience to water shortage conditions as farmers’ decisions, and landowners would culti- well as sustain national resources. vate clover on their land using drain water. The in- creased demand on clover in Lower Egypt would encourage farmers to expand the clover areas on the expense of wheat areas, which would nega- This paper is an article review of a research study entitled “The Grand Ă°ĕs»ěĀF˜saĂĀìsĀÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā÷s»–¯÷ϙa°sÇaěĀ°ÇĀė¬sFĂãĀ Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Agriculture, and the Rural Poor in Egypt” by Dalia M. Gouda, in Abdelazim M. Negm, and Sommer Abdel-Fattah (eds.), Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam versus Aswan High Dam: A 3. Migration: Migration, whether temporary or View from Egypt (Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature Switzerland AG, permanent, is a means by which some farmers 2019), pp. 197-230. DOI 10.1007/698_2017_121. seek to diversify their income, by motivating

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 47 The Hydrological and Environmental Impacts of Constructing the Renaissance Dam*

An Article Review by Mahmoud Salama Researcher at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies

The Blue Nile River is the main source to the ÁsĂsò÷Ā»ÎÇ£ĀFĂĀìsĀ sÇ°÷¬FÇ£Ď»¯ĎÁĎğĀòs£°ÎÇiĀċġĀ Nile River waters; it contributes annually with ĂÎĀ ġĀÁsĂsò÷Ā–FòĀ–òÎÁĀìsĀ4ĎkFÇs÷sĀWÎòksò÷ãĀ6¬sĀ FWÎĎĂĀ ġ¯œâĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ òsĕsÇĎsĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ '°»sĀ ėFĂsò÷Ā stated purpose of constructing the dam is to gen- during July to October, while the Great Lakes sòFĂsĀþġġġĀÁs£FėFĂĂ÷ĀΖĀs»saĂò°a°ĂěiĀė°Ă¬ĀìsĀ¬s»ÝĀ ÝòÎĕ°ksĀ ՜âĀ ÎÇ»ěãĀ 6¬sĀ '°»sĀ 2°ĕsòĀ žÎė÷Ā ìòÎĎ£¬Ā ΖĀÕþĀĂĎòW°Çs÷iĀė¬°a¬ĀWsaFÁsĀòskĎaskĀ»FĂsòĀĂÎĀÕċĀ 11 riparian countries, known as the Nile Basin ĂĎòW°Çs÷iĀė°Ă¬ĀFĀĆüœĀÁs£FėFĂĂ÷ĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀÝsòĀsFa¬ãĀ Countries. Most of the Basin countries are charac- The storage reservoir’s holding capacity to gener- Ăsò°ğskĀWěĀÝÎĕsòĂěiĀÝÎÝĎ»FĂ°ÎÇĀ£òÎėìĀFÇkĀėFĂsòĀ FĂsĀs»saĂò°a°ĂěĀ°÷Ās÷Ă°ÁFĂskĀFĂĀFWÎĎĂĀü ĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎ- scarcity—which are all factors that may lead de- bic meters of water. velopment projects, including dam constructions FÇkĀ°òò°£FĂ°ÎÇiĀĂÎĀaFĎ÷sĀaÎǞ°aĂ÷ĀWsĂėssÇĀìsĀ F- Only few studies have highlighted the impacts sin countries. The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is of constructing GERD and thus came to a num- a reason of tension in the relation between Egypt ber of conclusions. Most importantly, they con- and Ethiopia since the latter started the dam con- cluded that project planning has largely ignored struction in 2011. the World Commission on Dams’ guidelines and lacked transparency. They also concluded that The idea of the Renaissance Dam was not a spur constructing such a dam would provide Ethiopia of the moment; constructing dams along the Blue ìsĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀĂÎĀaÎÇĂòλĀėFĂsòĀžÎė÷ĀΖĀìsĀėÎò»kð÷Ā Nile as an idea has been repeatedly put forth, »Fò£s÷ĂĀò°ĕsòĀ°ÇĀFĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀÁFÇÇsòiĀė¬°a¬ĀaòsFĂs÷Ā but was always met with rejection from Egypt’s a dire need for the region to share data and infor- side, based on the international conventions and mation with respect to hydro-solidarity principles charters regulating dam constructions along the ìFĂĀ sÇaÎĎòF£sĀ sçĎ°ĂFW»sĀ FÇkĀ òsF÷ÎÇFW»sĀ ĎĂ°»°ğF- '°»sĀ 2°ĕsòãĀ ÇĀ ÕÊþ iĀFĀ÷ĂĎkěĀ ÎÇĀìsĀ »ĎsĀ '°»sĀWěĀ tion of international watercourses. ìsĀ9ã4ãĀ ĎòsFĎĀΖĀ2sa»FÁFĂ°ÎÇĀà94 2áĀaÎÇa»Ďk- ed that there are approximately no arable lands This study aims to identify the impacts of the between Lake Tana and the Sudanese-Ethiopian 2Ā ÎÇĀ ìsĀ '°»sĀ 2°ĕsòĀ ÷ĂòsFÁžÎėiĀ Ýòsk°aĂĀ ìsĀ borders. The study proposed the construction of hydrological and environmental impacts that are four hydroelectric dams, namely Karadobi, Mabil, »°¹s»ěĀĂÎĀFò°÷sĀ–òÎÁĀìsĀÝòηsaĂĀ÷ĂF£s÷iĀFÇkĀFÇF»ěğsĀ Mendaia and the Border Project—later named the ìs°òĀ s˜saĂ÷Ā ÎÇĀ ìsĀ ĂėÎĀ kÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀ aÎĎÇĂò°s÷ãĀ Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The The study focuses on three areas, namely: dam is constructed with 155 meters high and 1780

48 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships 1. 6¬sĀ9ÝÝsòĀ »ĎsĀ'°»sĀ F÷°ÇĀà9 ' áã Ws¬°ÇkĀìsĀkFÁĀòsFa¬s÷ĀÕ œĀÁsĂsò÷iĀF÷Āksa»FòskĀ 2. The area between the GERD and Khartoum, Su- WěĀì°ÎÝ°FÇĀΙa°F»÷ãĀ dan. ĆãĀThe area from Khartoum to the entrance of The stored amount of water and the reservoir sur- Lake Nasser, Egypt. –FasĀFòsFĀk°˜sòĀ–òÎÁĀìsĀĕF»Ďs÷Āksa»FòskĀWěĀì°- ÎÝ°FÇĀΙa°F»÷ĀF–ĂsòĀĎ÷°Ç£ĀìsĀòa4Ā÷ΖĂėFòsĀĂÎĀ 6¬sĀ÷ĂĎkěĀĎĂ°»°ğskĀĂėÎĀÁF°ÇĀÁÎks»÷ĀĂÎĀ°Çĕs÷Ă°£FĂsĀ calculate the reservoir surface area and the vol- the hydrological impacts of GERD, which are: ume of water to be stored, based on a number of stored water level scenarios. According to the 1. The ArcInfo version 10.1 software, which is òa4ĀÁÎks»iĀFĂĀFĀėFĂsòĀ¬sFkĀΖĀÕ þĀÁsĂsò÷ĀWs- used for delineating and determining the sur- hind the dam, the reservoir will have a surface face area of the dam storage reservoir. FòsFĀ ΖĀ ՜þÕĀ ÷çĎFòsĀ ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷Ā FÇkĀ FĀ ĕλĎÁsĀ ΖĀ 2. HEC-RAS, which is a ‘River Analysis System’ ėFĂsòĀsçĎF»ĀĂÎĀüÊĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ãĀ ÁÎks»ĀĂÎĀksĂsòÁ°ÇsĀìsĀ÷ĂòsFÁžÎėãĀ6¬sĀ÷ĂĎkěĀ used this model to simulate the impact of the 2s÷Ď»Ă÷ĀF»÷ÎĀ÷¬ÎėĀìFĂĀìsĀĕλĎÁsĀΖĀü ĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎ- GERD failure on the Sudanese lands. W°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀÇssk÷ĀFĀ÷Ďò–FasĀFòsFĀΖĀÕ ċþĀ÷çĎFòsĀ¹°»Î- ÁsĂsò÷ĀFÇkĀÕĆþĀÁsĂsò÷ĀėFĂsòĀ¬sFkĀÎÇ»ěãĀ@¬sòsF÷iĀ FIRST: HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS AS- the dam authorities have declared that the storage SESSMENT OF THE DAM: FòsFĀė°»»ĀWsĀÕþġĀ÷çĎFòsĀ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷ãĀaaÎòk°Ç£ĀĂÎĀ the analysis, this surface area indicates that the There are three main points that help assessing ÷ĂÎòF£sĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀė°»»ĀWsĀĎÝĀĂÎĀ ĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁs- the hydrological impacts of the dam, which are ters. This refers to either the shortage in data col- represented in: lection for this project, or might be the intention to hide such values to reduce the two downstream 1- Dam Storage Reservoir countries from the fear of constructing the dam.

The GERD was planned initially to create a lake The contradiction between the increase in the ìFĂĀėÎĎ»kĀ÷ĂÎòsĀÕ ĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀΖĀėFĂsòãĀ 2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀ÷°ğsĀFÇkĀìsĀksa»FòskĀÎW·saĂ°ĕsĀ ÎėsĕsòiĀ ìsĀ »F¹sð÷Ā aFÝFa°ĂěĀ °ÇaòsF÷skĀ ĂÎĀ ü Ā W°»- of constructing the dam to generate hydroelectric lion cubic meters in order to cover a surface area power is apparent in the fact that storage capac- ΖĀ ÕþġĀ÷çĎFòsĀ ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷Āė¬sÇĀìsĀėFĂsòĀ ¬sFkĀ ities of hydroelectric dams are usually less than

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 49 Õ ĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ãĀ6¬sòs–ÎòsiĀ÷ĂÎò°Ç£ĀėFĂsòĀFĂĀ Á°Ă°£FĂsĀ ėFĂsòĀ ÷ĂÎòF£sĀ ÝòÎW»sÁ÷Ā –ÎòĀ üġâĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ ÕġþĀ ÁsĂsò÷Ā ¬sFkĀWs¬°ÇkĀìsĀ kFÁĀFÇkĀ ÕÊĀW°»»°ÎÇĀ ›»»°Ç£ĀÝsò°Îk÷ĀΖĀìsĀì°ÎÝ°FÇĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀFÁĀ aĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷Āė°»»ĀWsĀìsĀÁÎ÷ĂĀ÷Ď°ĂFW»sĀFÇkĀ÷ϙ- reservoir. Based on the previous results, the best cient scenario for generating electric power. accepted scenario for constructing the dam is by ›»»°Ç£Ā°Ă÷Āòs÷sòĕΰòĀė°Ă¬ĀìsĀ°Ç°Ă°F»ĀÝ»FÇĀΖĀÕÊĀW°»- »°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀÎÇ»ěĀÎòĀ»s÷÷Ā°ÇĀFòÎĎÇkĀĆãĀěsFò÷Ā 2- Reservoir Filling Scenarios WěĀĎ÷°Ç£ĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀòFĂsĀΖĀœĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀΖĀ water per year. This amount of water will be suf- 6¬sĀ÷ĂĎkěĀFkÎÝĂskĀ–ÎĎòĀ÷asÇFò°Î÷Ā–ÎòĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀ›»»- ›a°sÇĂĀ–ÎòĀÝÎėsòĀ£sÇsòFĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀ¬FĕsĀ»s÷÷Ā°ÁÝFaĂĀ ing rates, namely 2, 5, 10 and 20 billion cubic me- on the two downstream countries. Ăsò÷ĀÝsòĀěsFòiĀFĂĀìsĀ÷°ęĀėFĂsòĀ»sĕs»Ā÷asÇFò°Î÷hĀÊþiĀ ÕġþiĀÕÕþiĀÕċþiĀÕĆþĀFÇkĀÕ þĀÁsĂsò÷ĀWs¬°ÇkĀìsĀkFÁãĀ 3- Dam Failure Scenarios Results showed that the estimated time periods ÇsskskĀĂÎĀ›»»ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀFĂĀÕ þĀÁsĂsò÷ĀΖĀėFĂsòĀ s÷Ý°ĂsĀ ΖĀ ìs°òĀ ÷°£Ç°›aFÇasĀ –ÎòĀ s»saĂò°aĀ ÝÎėsòĀ level behind the dam will be as follows: £sÇsòFĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀžÎÎkĀaÎÇĂòλĀF÷Āės»»ĀF÷Ā–ÎòĀÝòÎĕ°k- ing water for human and agricultural consump- • ĀĂ°ÁsĀÝsò°ÎkĀΖĀĆÊãœĀěsFò÷Ā°–ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀ›»»°Ç£Ā tion; dams can cause serious risk for agricultural rate is 2 billion cubic meters per year. lands, historic sites, wildlife habitats and commu- nities during catastrophes—such as dam failure or • ĀĂ°ÁsĀÝsò°ÎkĀΖĀ՜ãĀěsFò÷Ā°–ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀ›»»°Ç£Ā breach, caused by geological/foundation weak- rate is 5 billion cubic meters per year. ness, terrorism or military attacks, etc. A dam is considered to have failed if there is a physical col- • ĀĂ°ÁsĀÝsò°ÎkĀΖĀüãÊĀěsFò÷Ā°–ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀ›»»°Ç£Ā lapse of all or part of the dam’s body, or an uncon- rate is 10 billion cubic meters per year. trolled release of any of its contents. To determine ìsĀ°ÁÝFaĂ÷ĀΖĀ2ĀÎÇĀ÷ĂòsFÁžÎėiĀìsĀ÷ĂĎkěĀFÝ- • ĀĂ°ÁsĀÝsò°ÎkĀΖĀĆãʜĀěsFò÷Ā°–ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀ›»»°Ç£Ā plied the HEC-RAS model to simulate the expect- rate is 20 billion cubic meters per year. skĀžÎÎkĀkĎsĀĂÎĀìsĀkFÁð÷Ā–F°»ĎòsĀFÇkĀ°Ă÷Ā°ÁÝFaĂĀÎÇĀ Khartoum, Sudan and Lake Nasser, Egypt. ÇĀaF÷sĀìsĀĕλĎÁsĀΖĀėFĂsòĀĂÎĀWsĀ÷ĂÎòskĀ°÷Āü ĀW°»- lion cubic meters, the estimated time periods for 2s÷Ď»Ă÷Ā÷¬ÎėskĀìFĂĀ°–ĀìsĀkFÁĀ–F°»skiĀìsĀžÎÎk- ìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀ›»»°Ç£Āė°»»ĀWsĀĆüiĀÕ ãiĀüã ĀFÇkĀĆãüĀW°»- ed area will cover the extension of 200 kilometers lion cubic meters per year, respectively. long and 15 kilometers width around Sennar, Su- dan, while extending 210 kilometers from Sennar to Khartoum.

SECOND: ENIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE DAM: Despite of the Ethiopian claims that the Renais- sance Dam poses no threat based on environmen- tal indicators, the project has many negative en- vironmental impacts on Ethiopia itself and both downstream countries.

1- Impacts of Dam Reservoir on Ethiopia The dam reservoir will cause a number of nega- tive impacts on Ethiopia, being as follows:

People Resettlement ˜saĂ÷ĀΖĀ›»»°Ç£ĀÝsò°ÎkĀ÷asÇFò°Î÷ĀΖĀìsĀ2Āòs÷sòĕΰòĀÎÇĀ£ěÝ- The displacement of people living in the con- tian water demand struction area of the dam reservoir is the biggest problem facing Ethiopia. A population of 20000 The results showed that severe water shortage to 122000 people will be relocated due the dif- ÝòÎW»sÁ÷Ā ė°»»Ā F˜saĂĀ £ěÝĂiĀ sĕsÇĀ ė°Ă¬Ā Ď÷°Ç£Ā ìsĀ ferent scenarios for reservoir volumes. The liv- storage water in Nasser Lake which may help to ing standards for this population are expected to

50 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships kòÎÝĀ »sFĕ°Ç£Ā ÝsÎÝ»sĀėÎò÷sĀ ΘĀìFÇĀėÎĎ»kĀ ¬FĕsĀ 0.5 to 1.5°C. These changes in temperature and wa- been the case before constructing the dam and in ter characteristics are not suitable for the aquatic comparison to their neighbors who have not been plants and animals that evolved in this ecosystem. resettled. Living standards of the majority of peo- The dam also holds back sediments that would ple are expected to drop due to many reasons; for naturally replenish downstream ecosystems. Ag- example, infrastructures, new schools and other ricultural lands and millions of families will be af- social services are less likely to be built. fected due to the reduction in the water share of both downstream countries, especially Egypt.

This can also result in increasing the pollution of the water streams, and thus create problems in the supply of water for drinking and industry. There will be also problems in river transportation and '°»sĀĂÎĎò°÷ÁiĀF÷Āės»»ĀF÷ĀìòsFĂ÷ĀÝÎ÷skĀĂÎĀ›÷¬Ā–FòÁ÷ãĀ In addition, when the river is deprived of its sed- iment load, it seeks to recapture it by eroding the upstream riverbed and both banks, and thereby it will pose a threat to bridges, dams and other river- bank structures. The area surrounding the Sennar FÁĀė°»»ĀWsĀF»÷ÎĀžÎÎkskiĀė¬°a¬Ā°÷ĀaÎÇ÷°ksòskĀF÷Ā a major threat to that dam in particular. Therefore, ÷Ďa¬Ā÷asÇFò°ÎĀė°»»Ā»sFkĀĂÎĀžÎÎk°Ç£ĀìsĀÁÎ÷ĂĀ–sò- tile lands in Sudan, which is the homeland to the Reservoir Volume (BCM) large population there.

A study highlighted that the Aswan High Dam will Greenhouse Gas Emissions »Î÷sĀÕċâĀFÇkĀüâĀΖĀ°Ă÷ĀFÇÇĎF»ĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀ The natural lakes and wetlands, as known, have kĎò°Ç£ĀFÇkĀF–ĂsòĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀΖĀ2iĀòs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěãĀ an active exchange of gases with the atmosphere, and the process of degradation of organic material consumes O2 and release CO2. In the GERD case, Overall, these results show that the tropical shrubs are the common plantation over construction and operation of the the proposed construction site for the reservoir. Renaissance Dam is an abuse of the 6¬sĀ°Ç°Ă°F»Ā›»»°Ç£ĀΖĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀžÎÎk÷ĀìsĀsę°÷Ă- Nile River water sources. It also has ing plants, leading to their death and decompo- huge hydrological and environmen- sition. They settle at the bottom of the reservoir, tal impacts on Egypt’s and Sudan’s then decompose and release dissolved methane. shares of the Blue Nile waters. To de- termine these impacts, there shall be 6¬sĀkFÁĀė°»»ĀF»÷ÎĀF˜saĂĀFçĎFĂ°aĀ¬FW°ĂFĂ÷ĀF÷ĀìsěĀ an answer for the simple question of °Ç¬°W°ĂĀ›÷¬ĀÁ°£òFĂ°ÎÇĀìòÎĎ£¬ĀìsĀò°ĕsòĀkĎsĀĂÎĀìsĀ ìsĀòsF»ĀsęÝsÇ÷s÷ĀFÇkĀWsÇs›Ă÷ĀΖĀaÎÇ- ¬°£¬ĀėFĂsòĀ»sĕs»ĀsęÝsaĂskĀWsĂėssÇĀÊþĀFÇkĀÕ þÁs- structing this dam. ters. Fish that try to pass directly through the dam’s turbines will be killed, in addition to the CO2 emissions estimated at 7 million tons.

2- Impacts of Dam Reservoir on the Downstream Countries Transformation of the Blue Nile River from a * This paper is an article review of a research study entitled “Impacts –òss¯žÎė°Ç£Ā ò°ĕsòĀ saÎ÷ě÷ĂsÁĀ ĂÎĀ FÇĀ FòĂ°›a°F»Ā ėF- of Constructing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile ter canal habitat is considered the major impact River” by Mohamed Helmy Elsanabary and Abdelkader T. Ahmed in to happen after the construction and operation of Abdelazim M. Negm, and Sommer Abdel-Fattah (eds.), Grand Ethiopian GERD. According to the HEC-RAC model results Renaissance Dam versus Aswan High Dam: A View from Egypt (Cham, °ÇĀìsĀk°˜sòsÇĂĀ–ÎĎòĀ÷asÇFò°Î÷Ā–ÎòĀ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀkFÁĀ Switzerland: Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2019), pp. 75-93. DOI reservoir, water velocity will be reduced by 5, 11, 10.1007/698_2017_228. ċġĀ FÇkĀ ċâiĀ òs÷ÝsaĂ°ĕs»ěãĀ ĎòìsòÁÎòsiĀ ìsĀ ėF- ter temperature in the river will be colder than it should be, and this reduction can be estimated by

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 51 Environmental Impacts of the GERD: Mitigation and Adaptation Options*

An Article Review by Shimaa Elbiksh Researcher at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies

Egypt has been listed among the top ten threat- ÷ĂòFĂ°›skiĀaÎÁÝÎ÷skĀΖĀ÷ĎW¯òÎĎÇkskĀ£òF°Ç÷iĀFÇkĀì°÷Ā sÇskĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷ĀĂÎĀ÷ϘsòĀėFĂsòĀ÷aFòa°ĂěĀWěĀċġċœãĀ ÎÇ- may be linked to the distance of transportation. Sed- cerns have grown due to the climate change and the imentation in Lake Nasser is estimated to be around rapidly increasing population, leading to reduction in ĆÕĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷iĀFòÎĎÇkĀìsĀFÇa°sÇĂĀa°ĂěĀΖĀ the per capita share of water. Added to the challenges Wadi Halfa, which is enough to be absorbed over facing sustainable development in Lake Nasser is the ĆġġĀĂÎĀ ġġĀěsFò÷ãĀ6¬sĀFÁÎĎÇĂĀΖĀ÷°»ĂĀksÝÎ÷°ĂskĀ°÷Ā Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) which is s÷Ă°ÁFĂskĀF÷ĀÕġÊĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀÝsòĀěsFòãĀ6¬sĀ now under construction on the Blue Nile River in sedimentation of silt can lead to the blockage of a Ethiopia, and thus on the Nile River which supplies large part of Nasser’s Lake at Wadi Halfa. This may ÁÎòsĀìFÇĀÊþâĀΖĀF»»Ā–òs÷¬ėFĂsòĀòs÷ÎĎòas÷Ā°ÇĀ£ěÝĂãĀ òs÷Ď»ĂĀ°ÇĀFĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ»Î÷÷ĀΖĀėFĂsòĀkĎsĀĂÎĀsĕFÝÎòFĂ°ÎÇĀ Thus, this study aims to evaluate the land resources and leakage. The depressions west of Lake Nasser of Lake Nasser, discuss the challenges of GERD on in the southwestern desert of Egypt (Toshka Lakes) Lake Nasser, and lastly, to propose solutions and rec- FòsĀFĀÇFĂĎòF»ĀžÎÎkĀk°ĕsò÷°ÎÇĀWF÷°ÇĀìFĂĀaFÇĀWsĀĎ÷skĀ ommendations to face these challenges—or at least to to reduce possible downstream damage to the Nile mitigate their impacts—and thus help decision makers ?F»»sěĀ°ÇĀaF÷sĀΖĀžÎÎk÷ĀÎòĀsęasÝĂ°ÎÇF»ĀžÎÎk°Ç£ĀWs- in solving the problem of water scarcity. cause the Lake Nasser reservoir is approaching their maximum storage capacity.

FIRST: THE NATURE OF LAND RES- COURCES OF LAKE NASSER AND SECOND: IMPACT OF GERD ON THE EGYPT’S SOUTHERN LAKES ASWAN HIGH DAM This section of the study aims to evaluate the soils The GERD has disastrous consequences for Egypt; it surrounding the Aswan High Dam, thus contributing leads to a reduction in Egypt’s water share, reduction to evaluate its capacity to respond to any existing or in power generated at Aswan High Dam, increase in potential challenges resulting from climate change or ÷sFėFĂsòĀ °ÇĂòĎ÷°ÎÇiĀFÇkĀ °Ç›»»°Ç£Ā $F¹sĀ 'F÷÷sòÿ$F¹sĀ from constructing GERD on southern downstreams. Nubia with sediment. This section aims to evaluate The study reveals the nature of soil in the regions the challenges facing the sustainable development surrounding Lake Nasser, which were deposited on ΖĀ$F¹sĀ'F÷÷sòĀFÇkĀΘsò÷ĀòsaÎÁÁsÇkFĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā–ÎòĀFk- both eastern and western sides due to water action. dressing them. On the other hand, Wadi soils are heterogeneous and

52 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships @FòĀaÎǞ°aĂ÷ĀaFÇĀò°÷sĀ°ÇĀ»ÎaF»ĀaÎÁÁĎÇ°Ă°s÷ĀFÇkĀėF- ìsĀ2Ā°÷Āks÷°£ÇskĀĂÎĀ›»»ĀFWÎĎĂĀüġĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀ ter-stressed areas due to the limited water resources meters, with 10 billion cubic meters reserved during they may share. Also, given that Egypt relies almost ÷sĕsÇĀěsFò÷ĀĂÎĀ›»»ĀìsĀkFÁãĀ totally on the Nile River, constructing the GERD is a major concern to Egypt. Vulnerability depends on 2- Reduction in Power Generated at Aswan ¬ÎėĀ»ÎÇ£Ā°ĂĀĂF¹s÷ĀĂÎĀ›»»ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòiĀòFÇ£°Ç£Ā–òÎÁĀ High Dam: ìòssĀĂÎĀ÷sĕsÇĀěsFò÷iĀė¬°a¬ĀaFÇĀaĎĂĀFWÎĎĂĀÕċĀĂÎĀċœâĀ –òÎÁĀìsĀ'°»sĀòs÷ÎĎòas÷ĀkĎò°Ç£ĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀÝsò°Îkã This reduction will occur as a result of decrease in the water levels of Lake Nasser. In addition, the As- Despite the possible positive impact of GERD at the wan High Dam reaches its lowest levels within four Aswan High Dam infrastructure level, leading to an ěsFò÷Ā–òÎÁĀìsĀkFĂsĀΖĀ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀ2iĀs÷Ýsa°F»»ěĀ increase in the lifetime of the Aswan High Dam in- during the drought period. Thus, Egyptian water frastructures and the active storage capacity of Lake ÷ĎÝÝ»ěĀė°»»ĀWsĀ£òsFĂ»ěĀF˜saĂskiĀė°Ă¬ĀFĀòskĎaĂ°ÎÇĀ Nasser reservoir; sediment load will increase on the in the power generation at the Aswan High Dam ÎìsòĀ¬FÇkãĀĂĀ°÷Ās÷Ă°ÁFĂskĀìFĂĀÁÎòsĀìFÇĀœġâĀΖĀìsĀ 2s÷sòĕΰòĀWěĀFWÎĎĂĀċġĀĂÎĀĆġâãĀs÷Ý°ĂsĀìsĀ–FaĂĀìFĂĀ sediment at Aswan is originated from the Blue Nile. Lake Nasser has water reserves for ten years, the It is worth mentioning that these challenges are at- decrease in water share will make using the amount tributed to the presence of geological structures such of stored water in the Lake the alternative solution, as faults and landslides into the reservoirs, as well FÇkĀìsòsWěĀF˜saĂ°Ç£ĀÝÎėsòĀ£sÇsòFĂ°ÎÇĀFĂĀìsĀ÷- as earthquakes and longitudinal cracks at the tops wan High Dam. of embankments. They all lead to serious structural impacts which will be as follows: This dam is deemed to be operated primarily to meet downstream demands that total 55.5 billion 1- Reduction in the Water Share of Egypt: cubic meters per year. The minimum elevation for ÝÎėsòĀ£sÇsòFĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀkÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀòs»sF÷s÷Ā°÷ĀÕ üĀ This reduction will occur as a result of reducing drain- ÁsĂsò÷ĀàĆÕãÊĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷áãĀ6¬sĀaĎòòsÇĂĀs»s- age from the Aswan High Dam. Egypt’s water share vation for the Aswan High Dam ranges from 175 ė°»»ĀWsĀòskĎaskĀĎÝĀĂÎĀœâiĀFÇkĀìsòsWěĀìsòsĀė°»»ĀWsĀ ĂÎĀՐċĀÁsĂsò÷ĀàÕċÕĀĂÎĀÕþüĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷áãĀ6¬sĀ ėFĂsòĀks›a°ĂĀ°ÇĀìsĀò°ĕsòĀė°Ă¬ĀFÇĀFĕsòF£sĀFÇÇĎF»Ā°Ç- capacity to generate power is reduced as the storage come of 10 billion cubic meters. The Aswan High volume of water in Lake Nasser decreases. FÁĀaÎÇĂF°Ç÷ĀFWÎĎĂĀÕ ġĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ûĀė¬°»sĀ

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 53 3- Increased Salinization of the Agricul-  )NÃLLING,AKE.ASSER,AKE.UBIAWITH tural Lands in Egypt Sediment 6¬sĀ°ÇaòsF÷sĀ°ÇĀ÷ΰ»Ā÷F»°Ç°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀF£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»Ā Ďò°Ç£ĀìsĀFÇÇĎF»ĀžÎÎkiĀìsĀ'°»sĀaFòò°s÷ĀWsĂėssÇĀġĀ lands is associated with increased upstream with- Á°»»°ÎÇĀFÇkĀÕĆġĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀĂÎÇ÷ĀΖĀ÷sk°ÁsÇĂĀĂÎĀ£ěÝĂĀ drawal resulting from GERD operation. By some and to North and South Sudan from the Ethiopia measurements, the water table has risen along the Highlands. Most of them settle in Lake Nubia, the Su- Nile Valley since the construction of the Aswan High danese portion of the Aswan High Dam reservoir. The FÁĀėF÷ĀaÎǛòÁskãĀ@FĂsòĀkÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀ–òÎÁĀìsĀ òs÷sòĕΰòĀėÎò¹÷Āė°Ă¬ĀFĀĂòFÝĀs™a°sÇaěĀΖĀÊÊâiĀė¬°a¬Ā ÷ėFÇĀ°£¬ĀFÁĀ°÷Āa¬FòFaĂsò°ğskĀė°Ă¬Ā¬°£¬Ā÷F»°Ç- ÁsFÇ÷ĀìFĂĀÎÇ»ěĀa»Fě¯÷°ğskĀÝFòĂ°a»s÷Ā°ÇĀ÷Ď÷ÝsÇ÷°ÎÇĀFòsĀ ity levels due to high evaporation rate. In addition, discharged through the dam, but all sand- and silt- reusing the Nile water several times before being ÷°ğskĀÝFòĂ°a»s÷ĀòsÁF°ÇĀ°ÇĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòãĀ@¬°»sĀ÷sk°ÁsÇĂĀ discharged to the sea makes it saltier. This high con- depth reaches over 75 meters at the Second Cataract centration of salt has an adverse impact on soil ΖĀìsĀ'°»sĀ°ÇĀ'ÎòìĀ4ĎkFÇiĀ°ĂĀ°÷Āa»Î÷sĀĂÎĀğsòÎĀÇsFòĀìsĀ fertility and crop production. It is also remarkable Aswan High Dam. Thus, Lake Nasser/Lake Nubia is that the nutrients of the soil washed down from the sęÝsaĂskĀĂÎĀWsĀ°Ç¯›»»skĀė°Ă¬Ā÷°»ĂĀFÇkĀ÷sk°ÁsÇĂ÷ãĀ Ethiopian Highlands were relatively low in nitrogen, FÇkĀìsěĀFòsĀòsÝ»FaskĀWěĀFòĂ°›a°F»Ā–sòĂ°»°ğsò÷ãĀ THIRD: MECHANISMS FOR REDUCING WATER SCARCITY 4- Increase in Seawater Intrusion This study is mainly intended to suggest some alter- Results show that the Nile Delta, which is part of natives and strategies to help policy makers secure the coastal aquifer, demonstrates vulnerability due to £ěÝĂð÷ĀėFĂsòĀksÁFÇk÷ĀFÇkĀÁ°Ç°Á°ğsĀìsĀėFĂsòĀ÷aFò- groundwater table depletion and seawater intrusion. city problems. These mechanisms are based on lever- The study also reveals that the land areas in Delta aging available water resources by reducing evapora- which will experience seawater intrusion are about Ă°ÎÇĀ»Î÷÷s÷Ā–òÎÁĀ$F¹sĀ'F÷÷sòûĀÁFę°Á°ğ°Ç£ĀìsĀĎ÷sĀΖĀ ċþüüĀFÇkĀ þüœĀ÷çĎFòsĀ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷Āė¬sÇĀìsĀ£òÎĎÇk- groundwater wells and rainwater in Egypt; seawater water table depletes by 2 and 5 meters below sea desalination; sewage treatment and reusing irrigation level, respectively. At the end, the study shows three ėFĂsòûĀÁFę°Á°ğ°Ç£ĀėFĂsòĀĎ÷sĀs™a°sÇaěûĀFÇkĀWěĀ÷ĂFòĂ- scenarios of water intrusion along the Egyptian Nile ing giant projects out of the Narrow Valley and Delta. s»ĂFûĀė¬°a¬ĀFòsĀ°ÇaòsF÷skĀ÷ΰ»Ā÷F»°Ç°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀìsĀ These mechanisms can be referred to as follows: probability of earth subsidence, geotechnical engineer- ing problems and agricultural degradation. 1- Reducing Evaporation Losses from Lake Nasser 5- Environmental degradation The average volume of the annual water loss by evap- Environmental degradation and the increased imbal- oration is about 12.5 billion cubic meters. To over- ance of the natural system are attributed to water come this problem, the study suggests applying the shortages in North Lakes. The GERD also has dis- coverage system and other techniques to reduce the F÷ĂòÎĎ÷ĀaÎÇ÷sçĎsÇas÷ĀÎÇĀ›÷¬Ā–FòÁ÷iĀ°ÇĀFkk°Ă°ÎÇĀĂÎĀ amount of water lost by evaporation. These strategies aFĎ÷°Ç£Ā ėFĂsòĀ Ýλ»ĎĂ°ÎÇiĀ »FÇkĀ ks÷sòĂ°›aFĂ°ÎÇĀ FÇkĀ ϻðÁFĂs»ěĀ aÎÇĂò°WĎĂsĀ ė°Ă¬Ā ÷Fĕ°Ç£Ā ġĀ W°»»°ÎÇĀ aĎW°aĀ drowning of major towns and villages due to wa- meters of water, which exceeds the expected losses ĂsòĀòs»sF÷sãĀÇĀFkk°Ă°ÎÇiĀìsĀĎÇÝòsk°aĂFW»sĀs˜saĂ÷ĀΖĀ caused by GERD. The inadequate water supply and climate change cannot be disregarded since the un- the increased future demand necessitate the impor- expected dry and wet scenarios are considered de- tance of the optimum use of water resources, which ›Ç°Ç£Ā–FaĂÎò÷Ā–ÎòĀ2ð÷ĀòsžsaĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀÎÇĀìsĀ'°»sĀ2°ĕsòĀ might be obtained through reduction of water losses. ėFĂsòĀžÎėãĀ4asÇFò°Î÷ĀĕFòěûĀ°ãsãĀF÷ĀĂÎĀìsĀėsĂĀ÷asÇFò°ÎiĀ the increased rates of vapor condensation will create 2- Maximizing the use of groundwater wells increased precipitation in the Ethiopian Highlands, in Egypt aFĎ÷°Ç£Ā°ÇaòsF÷skĀòĎÇΘĀ°ÇĀìsĀ'°»sĀ2°ĕsòãĀ ĎĂĀks÷Ý°ĂsĀ ìFĂĀ–FaĂiĀžÎÎk°Ç£ĀFÇkĀsęas÷÷°ĕsĀėFĂsòĀžÎėĀ÷ĂòsFÁĀ 6¬sĀFÁÎĎÇĂĀΖĀ£òÎĎÇkėFĂsòĀ°ÇĀ£ěÝĂĀ°÷Ā ãġĀaĎW°aĀ¹°»Î- may occur in this case. The GERD may act as a pro- meters per year. In many cases, ground water serves as ĂsaĂ°ÎÇĀWFòò°sòĀ–òÎÁĀžÎÎk÷Āė¬°a¬ĀFòsĀçĎ°ĂsĀaÎÁÁÎÇĀ the only reliable source of drinking and irrigation water. along the Blue Nile, and the severity and intensity of The age of groundwater in Egypt reaches tens of thou- ìs÷sĀžÎÎk÷ĀFòsĀ»°¹s»ěĀĂÎĀ°ÇaòsF÷sĀė°Ă¬Āa»°ÁFĂsĀa¬FÇ£sãĀ sands of years. By the massive use of groundwater for However, as to the dry scenario, it claims that with irrigation, a new debate was opened on groundwater increased temperatures from global warming comes mining and the lack of adequate planning, legal frame- °ÇaòsF÷skĀsĕFÝÎòFĂ°ÎÇĀòFĂs÷ĀFÇkĀ¬sÇasĀ»s÷÷ĀėFĂsòĀžÎėĀ works and governance in order to discuss the sustain- in the Nile River. ability of the intensive use of groundwater resources.

54 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships 3- Maximizing the use of rainwater in agricultural projects, such as rice cultivation in coun- Egypt Ăò°s÷Ā ė°Ă¬Ā FWĎÇkFÇĂĀ ėFĂsòiĀ ė°»»Ā ÁFę°Á°ğsĀ ėFĂsòĀ Egypt is a very arid country, where the average an- use in Egypt. nual rainfall seldom exceeds 200 millimeters along the northern coast. The rainfall declines very rapidly from coastal to inland areas and becomes almost 7- Starting Giant Projects out of the Nar- nil south of Cairo. Areas dependent on rainwater in row Valley and Delta Egypt, most of which are located along the Egyptian ÇÎòìĀaÎF÷ĂiĀaÎĕsòĀÇsFò»ěĀċãĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀ¬saĂFòs÷ĀàþãüĀ By 2017, the total water demand is expected to reach million feddans). This rainfall water is discharging FWÎĎĂĀ üÊãĆĀ W°»»°ÎÇĀ aĎW°aĀ ÁsĂsò÷Ā ÝsòĀ ěsFòiĀ ė¬°a¬Ā into the Nile River through the east and west wadis ÁsFÇ÷ĀìFĂĀks›a°sÇa°s÷Āė°»»ĀòsFa¬ĀċãüĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀ along the Nile River. While the wadis located east meters per year. This makes it imperative for Egypt ΖĀìsĀ'°»sĀ2°ĕsòĀaÎÇĂò°WĎĂsĀžF÷¬ĀžÎÎkĀėFĂsòĀÁÎòsĀ to start giant projects—such as the Development than those located west of the Nile River, attempts Corridor project—out of the narrow valley and delta ĂÎĀÎÝĂ°Á°ğsĀìsĀĎ÷sĀΖĀì°÷Ā»°Á°ĂskĀçĎFÇĂ°ĂěĀΖĀėF- to the desert in order to expand arable land along ter will help close part of the water gap, even in ìsĀ'°»sĀ?F»»sěiĀÁFę°Á°ğsĀìsĀĎ÷sĀΖĀ£ěÝĂð÷Ā»FÇkĀ limited quantities. ksÝòs÷÷°ÎÇ÷iĀFÇkĀksĕs»ÎÝĀìs°òĀ÷s»–¯÷ϙa°sÇaěãĀÎòĀ example, the depression developments of Lake 4- Seawater Desalination Bardawil, Farafra Oasis and Toshka.

Now, several countries consider seawater desali- nation an important source of water supplies. In In a nutshell, the potential environ- water scarcity situation, desalination has been ap- mental and technical consequences plied as an additional option in several areas; i.e., of GERD on Egypt, as well as the re- some coastal towns, islands and remote industrial duction in the water share of Egypt, sites. The desalination capacity in Egypt, hence, has cannot be underestimated. In light of grown to some 150000 cubic meters per day. The the challenges detected in this study, a feed water resources in this desalination process number of the above mentioned strat- include, among others, seawater, wastewater and egies have been developed to help wells. ÷FĕsĀFWÎĎĂĀ ġĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀΖĀ water, which exceeds the expected 5- Sewage Treatment and Reusing Irriga- water losses caused by GERD. Howev- tion Water sòiĀìsĀks›Ç°Ç£Ā–FaĂÎòĀΖĀìsĀs˜saĂ°ĕs- ness of these strategies in managing 4sėF£sĀ ĂòsFĂÁsÇĂĀ Θsò÷Ā FĀ ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ ÷ÎĎòasĀ ΖĀ and addressing the crisis, in addition traditional water supply than any other means to the Egyptian government’s capa- of water supplies. It helps close the gap between bility to execute such strategies, is still water supply and wastewater disposal. The treated tied to the scale of the challenge itself ėF÷ĂsėFĂsòĀaFÇĀWsĀĎĂ°»°ğskĀ–ÎòĀFĀÇĎÁWsòĀΖĀWsÇs- and the ability to respond to it within ›a°F»ĀÝĎòÝÎ÷s÷iĀ÷Ďa¬ĀF÷ĀF£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»Ā°òò°£FĂ°ÎÇãĀ6¬sĀ a given period of time. This raises the volume of drainage water reused for irrigation was question of the number of years need- Ý»FÇÇskĀĂÎĀòsFa¬ĀFĀĕF»ĎsĀΖĀãĆĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷Ā skĀĂÎĀ›»»ĀìsĀkFÁiĀė¬°a¬Ā°÷ĀaÎÇ÷°ksòskĀ per year by 2017. The reused amount of domestic a cutting and helping factor in provid- and industrial wastewater is estimated to reach ing plenty of time for the country to about 1.5 billion cubic meters by 2025. ÁÎW°»°ğsĀaFÝFW°»°Ă°s÷ĀFÇkĀòs÷ÎĎòas÷ĀĂÎĀ mitigate the impact of this challenge.  -AXIMIZING7ATER5SE%ßCIENCY

&Fę°Á°ğ°Ç£ĀėFĂsòĀĎ÷sĀs™a°sÇaěĀ°÷ĀÎÇsĀ¹sěĀ–FaĂÎòĀ °ÇĀėFĂsòĀòFĂ°ÎÇF»°ğFĂ°ÎÇãĀÁÝòÎĕ°Ç£ĀìsĀ÷Ďò–FasĀ°ò- ò°£FĂ°ÎÇĀ÷ě÷ĂsÁĀė°»»Ā÷FĕsĀ ċâĀΖĀėFĂsòĀ»Î÷÷s÷ĀkĎsĀ This paper is an article review of a research study entitled “Environmental ĂÎĀsĕFÝÎòFĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀ÷ssÝF£sãĀ6¬sĀs™a°sÇaěĀΖĀĎ÷°Ç£Ā Impacts of the GERD Project on Egypt’s Aswan High Dam Lake and modern irrigation systems and drip irrigation in Mitigation and Adaptation Options” by El-Sayed Ewis Omran and Çsė»ěĀaϻðĕFĂskĀ»FÇkĀ°÷ĀFWÎĎĂĀüœĀĂÎĀœâãĀÇĀFkk°Ă°ÎÇiĀ Abdelazim Negm; in Abdelazim M. Negm, and Sommer Abdel-Fattah modifying the cropping pattern by using low con- (eds.), Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam versus Aswan High Dam: A sumptive use crops helps eliminate rice and other View from Egypt (Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature Switzerland AG, water-consuming plants from the crop pattern. Co- 2019), pp. 175-196. DOI: 10.1007/698_2017_217 operation with Nile Basin countries in establishing

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 55

Prospects for Cooperation

Pathways of Cooperation to Overcome the Renaissance Dam Crisis: Future Prospects Ambassador Dr. Mohamed Hegazy Water Rivalry on the Nile Dr. Hani Sewilam Pathways of Cooperation to Overcome the Renaissance Dam Crisis: Future Prospects

Ambassador Dr. Mohamed Hegazy Former Assistant Foreign Minister of Egypt

Despite having the Renaissance Dam nego- binding cap on all parties, and even if it became tiations, which are held under the auspices of less than expected, the gap can be always com- ìsĀ 9Ç°ĂskĀ 4ĂFĂs÷iĀ ÷ĂF»»skĀ WěĀ ì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā °ÇĂòFÇ÷°- pensated—whether by cooperating with Sudan gence and then by its last-minute withdrawal ĎÇksòĀìsĀ£òssÁsÇĂĀΖĀÕʜÊûĀWěĀ°ÁÝ»sÁsÇĂ°Ç£Ā from meetings at the end of February; it remains ÝòηsaĂ÷Ā –ÎòĀ Ď÷°Ç£Ā ò°ĕsòĀ »Î÷÷s÷ûĀ WěĀ òFĂ°ÎÇF»°ğ°Ç£Ā important to consider the outcomes of these ne- consumption as well as the agricultural systems £ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā–ÎòĀė¬°a¬ĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀaÎÇĂ°ÇĎsĀ and crops consumed; or by applying new tech- °Ă÷Ā s˜ÎòĂ÷Ā ĂÎĀ sÇ÷ĎòsĀ ìs°òĀ ÷Ďaas÷÷ãĀ )ÇĀ ìsĀ ÎìsòĀ nologies for agricultural irrigation and reuse of hand, Sudan is still bound by these negotiations water waste. as a reference, while Egypt has initialed the draft agreement. The desired agreement, which shall be draft- ed in a spirit of compromise, will certainly be a But we shall conclude from this a comprehen- driver for a comprehensive cooperation where sive political, legal and technical agreement water issues represent only one part, not all binding on all parties, particularly the Ethiopi- frameworks of cooperation. More importantly, FÇĀÝFòĂěãĀì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā÷ĂFÇasĀ÷¬F»»ĀWsĀaÎǛÇskĀWěĀ this agreement will put an end to the obscurity clear and unequivocal outcomes under a bind- of Ethiopia’s stance and its undeclared strategy ing legal agreement, to be later lodged in regional that still stands as an obstacle to reach a consen- FÇkĀ°ÇĂsòÇFĂ°ÎÇF»ĀÎò£FÇ°ğFĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀFÇkĀ£°ĕsÇĀFĀ»s£F»Ā sus. Despite the threats and concerns created by standing that regulates the manner and format the Renaissance Dam, formulating a future of co- of future mutual cooperation on water resources operation within this framework opens up new management and opens up prospects for regional ¬Îò°ğÎÇ÷Ā–ÎòĀ›ò÷Ă¯Ă°ÁsĀòs£°ÎÇF»ĀÝFòĂÇsò÷¬°Ý÷ĀFÇkĀ cooperation. This is to strengthen the concept of poses a pointed question to the Ethiopian side regional security, instead of the competing con- that it shall answer by setting a bar for its ambi- cepts of national security. Accordingly, this will tions and a stable style for water relations with bring about security and stability for Egyptian Egypt and Sudan. This comes as a perquisite for water security after settling relations and insur- ì°ÎÝ°FĀ ĂÎĀ WsÇs›ĂĀ –òÎÁĀ °Ă÷Ā W°££s÷ĂĀ ÝòηsaĂûĀ ìsĀ °Ç£ĀþâĀΖĀìsĀ »ĎsĀ2°ĕsòĀòsĕsÇĎs÷ĀFÇkĀòs÷ÎĎòa- Renaissance Dam, after it has invested resources; es, in spite of the probable decrease in this rev- ÁÎW°»°ğskĀ°ÇĂsòÇF»ĀFÇkĀsęĂsòÇF»Ā÷ĎÝÝÎòĂĀ–ÎòĀì°÷Ā enue as a result of the impacts of Renaissance project; and placed political, economic and social Dam. However, this percentage shall remain as a ¬ÎÝs÷ĀÎÇĀ°ĂãĀ ÎÇĂòλ»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀaÎǛǰǣĀì°ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā

58 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships stance by cooperation was the most important of the proposals are applicable in case the agree- strategic gain for Egypt. It is represented in the ment of cooperation and mutual water manage- consensus sought during Washington discus- ment was unanimously approved and signed in ÷°ÎÇ÷ûĀÝFòĂ°aĎ»Fò»ěĀìFĂĀWÎìĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀFÇkĀ Washington. the World Bank, as witnesses and guarantors, can ΘsòĀ òs»°FW»sĀ F÷÷ĎòFÇas÷Ā FÇkĀ òs–sòsÇasiĀ ÷¬ÎĎ»kĀ the need arise or future disputes occur. They also PROPOSAL ONE: REGIONAL COMMIT- help Egypt achieve stability for the agreement TEE FOR COOPERATION MANAGE- that shall be drafted in a legal and unambigu- MENT IN THE EASTERN NILE BASIN ÎĎ÷Ā–ÎòÁĀĎÇksòĀìsĀ£òssÁsÇĂĀΖĀÕʜÊĀWsĂėssÇĀ Egypt and Sudan. This committee can be provided for within an inclusive legal treaty framework which func- It is important now to call upon the Joint Egyp- tions as an agreement between the three coun- tian-Sudanese Higher Committee for an urgent Ăò°s÷ãĀ ¬FÝĂsòĀ Ā ÷¬F»»Ā ks›ÇsĀ ìsĀ ÎW·saĂ°ĕs÷Ā FÇkĀ meeting to jointly discuss how to deal with de- principles of cooperation, while Chapter II shall velopments in the situation in light of the Wash- ks›ÇsĀ ìsĀ Ăsa¬Ç°aF»Ā Ýsò÷ÝsaĂ°ĕsiĀ s÷ĂFW»°÷¬ÁsÇĂĀ ington Agreement, and to discuss methods of of the Joint Authority for water resources man- mutual water management against the expected agement as well as development projects. It shall ÷¬ÎòĂF£sĀ ÎÇasĀ ìsĀ ›»»°Ç£Ā ÝòÎas÷÷Ā ΖĀ ìsĀ 2sÇF°÷- also specify the methods of dam management in sance Dam begins—pursuant to Act No. 5 of the the three countries and how the dams and their ÕʜÊĀ £òssÁsÇĂĀ ÝsòĂF°Ç°Ç£Ā ĂÎĀ sçĎF»»ěĀ WsFòĀ FÇěĀ drains are jointly supervised and controlled, in resultant water shortage from the usage of water addition to the methods of managing technical shares by upstream countries. and legal relations among the Blue Nile basin countries through sending resident missions to During the period ahead, Egypt’s action shall rely the sites of dams established in the three coun- on several themes to consolidate the agreement tries. Coordinating water resources among these and make it more attractive to Ethiopia. Thus, dams is managed according to agreed storage rate through the following three proposals, we are and time frame for the Renaissance Dam with no looking forward to future cooperation, and the harm to Egypt’s water interests. This proposal institutional frameworks that guarantee the con- also includes a number of accompanying projects tinuance of this transboundary cooperation. Two to promote linkage among the three countries

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 59 through land routes, railway lines, and electricity The project entitled ‘Eastern Development Cor- grids. These projects can be implemented by the ridor’ aims to promote linkage among the three Investment Fund in Information Technology In- countries. It includes the establishment of an frastructure, suggested by the Egyptian President electricity linkage grid starting from the Renais- in collaboration with the other two leaders of sance Dam, knowing that it has been agreed to aÎĎÇĂò°s÷ĀÎÇĀìsĀÁFò£°ÇĀΖĀìsĀċġÕþĀ–ò°aFĀÎòĎÁĀ coordinate this dam with other dams in Sudan °ÇĀ4¬FòÁĀF»¯4¬s°¹¬iĀFÇkĀìsÇĀòsF™òÁskĀWěĀ¬°ÁĀ and Egypt, and mutually cooperate on its man- FĂĀ ìsĀ 6ò°ÝFòĂ°ĂsĀ 4ĎÁÁ°ĂĀ °ÇĀ kk°÷Ā WFWFĀ ÎÇĀ ċþĀ agement according to agreed standards and rates. January 2018. The Fund has been also mentioned 6¬°÷Ā£ò°kĀė°»»ĀWsÇs›ĂĀWÎìĀ4ĎkFÇĀFÇkĀ£ěÝĂĀWěĀ in the outcome document of the Nine-Way Meet- Θsò°Ç£Ā ìsÁĀ a»sFÇĀ sÇsò£ěĀ ìFĂĀ aFÇĀ WsĀ sęÝÎòĂ- ing held in Addis Ababa on 15 May 2018. ed or exploited in their industries. In addition, a land route as well as a transboundary railway Developing the concepts and mechanisms, men- line will be created, reaching to Khartoum, and tioned in the outcome document of the Nine- ìsÇĀĂÎĀ÷ėFÇĀė°Ă¬ĀFĀĂÎĂF»Ā»sÇ£Ă¬ĀΖĀÊ ġĀ¹°»ÎÁs- Way Meeting, toward the establishment of a uni- Ăsò÷Āà÷ĂFòĂ°Ç£Ā ġĀ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷Ā–òÎÁĀìsĀ2sÇF°÷÷FÇasĀ ›skĀ FkÁ°Ç°÷ĂòFĂ°ĕsĀ FĎìÎò°ĂěĀ FÇkĀ ÁFÇF£sÁsÇĂĀ FÁĀ÷°ĂsĀFÇkĀsęĂsÇk°Ç£ĀF»ÎÇ£ĀÊġġĀ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷ĀĂÎĀ of relations among the Blue Nile basin countries, Aswan, passing through Khartoum). Thus, this al- ¬Î»k÷Ā ÷°£Ç°›aFÇasĀ °ÇĀ ìsĀ ėFěĀ ì°÷Ā ksĕs»ÎÝÁsÇĂĀ lows a landlocked country like Ethiopia to export deals with all aspects of relations among the its goods abroad and across the ports of the Med- three countries under a comprehensive and sta- iterranean and Red Seas. We also address, here, W»sĀ F£òssÁsÇĂãĀ @¬FĂĀ °÷Ā ÷a°sÇĂ°›aF»»ěĀ ÝòÎĕsÇĀ °÷Ā ìsĀÝÎĂsÇĂ°F»ĀĎ÷F£sĀΖĀìsĀ4ĎsğĀ FÇF»ĀaÎÇÎÁ°aĀ that river basins are integrated systems and units; Zone (SCZone) by Ethiopia and Sudan as a stor- i.e. the Nile River is an integrated system that shall age and logistic exporting area, and yet COMESA be dealt with as an all-in-one geographic, natural member states can use it as an outlet for export- and environmental unit. Its water resources shall ing meat and other agricultural and industrial be also managed collectively and coherently, in ÝòÎkĎaĂ÷ĀĂÎĀòFWiĀĎòÎÝsFÇĀFÇkĀ9ã4ãĀÁFò¹sĂ÷ãĀÇĀ addition to the development of its agricultural any case, seeking several prospects for cooper- and industrial resources as well as other social, FĂ°ÎÇĀFaòÎ÷÷Āk°˜sòsÇĂĀ÷saĂÎò÷Āė°»»ĀWsĀFÁÎÇ£ĀìsĀ human and cultural ones. priorities of the joint administrative authority of the Eastern Nile (or the Blue Nile) basin countries. 9ÝÎÇĀìsĀ»FĎÇa¬ĀΖĀì°÷Ā·Î°ÇĂĀFĎìÎò°ĂěĀFÇkĀaΰÇ- PROPOSAL TWO: ‘EASTERN DEVELOP- ciding with the International Donors Conference, MENT CORRIDOR OF THE BLUE NILE there will be a call to support the three countries BASIN COUNTRIES’ PROJECT in their implementation of regional land, water and railroad linkage projects that allow the Riv- Launching this comprehensive development pro- er’s environment to get prepared for a large space ject, that is to be supervised by the administra- of future cooperation and political and security tive authority of Blue Nile basin countries on the stability as well. levels of politics, water resources and econom- °a÷iĀ ě°s»k÷Ā ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ saÎÇÎÁ°aĀ £F°Ç÷Ā FÇkĀ Ýλ°Ă°- It is likely to have the project of ‘Eastern Develop- cal consensus, and also helps reducing tensions, ment Corridor’ submitted to funding institutions risks of confrontation, and disputes between the and donors, and yet likely to China, for example, ìòssĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷ãĀĂĀΘsò÷ĀFÇĀFkk°Ă°ÎÇF»Ā£sΣòFݬ°- within the framework of its project entitled The cal gain where a landlocked country like Ethiopia Belt and Road and in order to strengthen relations will stand itself as an outlet across the Mediterra- with key countries along this road. nean ports of Egypt, and thereby such coopera- tion becomes attractive to Ethiopia, in particular, This proposal is also encouraged by the integra- and Sudan, while achieving the interests of all tion of the cooperative and most comprehensive three countries. vision for the Nile River and its tributaries, which is correlated with that proposal submitted by the Water issues will be an integral part of this mul- Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation to link the Lake tilateral cooperation system and the Eastern De- Victoria countries with the Mediterranean sea velopment Corridor project will include several through a maritime transport route that helps the areas of cooperation—such as electricity, sea-and transfer of commercial activities by these coun- land transportation, and movement of individ- tries to the Mediterranean sea. In collaboration uals, goods and commodities—within a broader with international centers of excellence, Egypt ÷aÎÝsĀWF÷skĀÎÇĀė°Ç¯ė°ÇĀÝòΛĂ÷ĀFÇkĀaÎÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇiĀ studies this proposal to link the Blue Nile with instead of disunity and division. this project, conducted by Ethiopia. The project

60 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships from Lake Victoria will pass through Sudan to On a parallel track and as part of this inclusive meet with the proposed project of ‘Eastern De- vision for regional cooperation, among the ob- velopment Corridor’ extending from Ethiopia. jectives of our movement toward other basin Thus, Sudan will be the meeting point of these countries are establishing development projects two regional projects, namely ‘Eastern Develop- in the south, and pushing for cooperation with ment Corridor’ extending from Ethiopian territo- South Sudan to implement projects for reducing ries and the linkage project of Lake Victoria with the losses of Nile waters. a maritime transport route to the Mediterranean Sea, particularly that Ethiopia has shown interest in the Victoria-Mediterranean Project. PROPOSAL THREE: PREPARING AN EGYPTIAN INTEGRATED TECHNICAL, It is certain that the Nile waters authority, to be LEGAL AND COOPERATIVE FILE FOR formulated for managing the Blue Nile basin, can RESOLVING THE RENAISSANCE DAM yield several gains across the Nile’s area, equal- ly to those achieved by similar cooperation ex- CRISIS periences among riparian countries of interna- 6¬sĀ›ò÷ĂĀĂėÎĀÝòÎÝÎ÷F»÷ĀòsÝòs÷sÇĂĀìsĀĂėÎĀÁsìÎk÷Ā tional rivers. One experience is the development ΖĀksF»°Ç£Āė°Ă¬ĀìsĀ›»sĀΖĀòs»FĂ°ÎÇ÷Āė°Ă¬Āì°ÎÝ°FĀ projects that the River Mekong authority in the and Sudan within the framework of regional coop- Southeast Asia established for countries like eration, but only in case Washington discussions Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, China, and became successful and a binding legal agreement Myanmar, with a value exceeding $22 billion, to was reached. serve all development plans of the River’s ripar- ian countries. Thus, this river became a link of However, the need for the third proposal might cooperation, rather than a reason for dispute and emerge in case Washington deliberations failed to tension; i.e. it is a ‘win-win’ for all, given that the reach an agreement; if a step back from commit- economies of Mekong countries—as well as the ment was witnessed in Ethiopia’s stance during River’s environment itself—have improved. any phase; or if Ethiopia acted without good faith while applying the terms of agreement. Thus, this These proposals submitted to enhance regional matter urges me to work on the preparation of an cooperation with the Eastern Nile basin countries, °ÇĂs£òFĂskĀ£ěÝĂ°FÇĀ°»siĀė¬sòsĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ÷saĂ°ÎÇĀ°Ç- and the Nile basin countries in general, come in cludes Egypt’s just and technical vision for the rules line with the international trend toward funding FÇkĀěsFò÷ĀΖĀ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀkFÁĀF÷Āės»»ĀF÷ĀìsĀÁsìÎkĀ multipurpose projects as well as those serving by which the Renaissance Dam is managed and more than one country. Since the Nile Basin Initi- operated in collaboration with the dams of Sudan ative (NBI) was announced, donors are still await- and Egypt, as presented during the discussions of ing a consensus among the countries targeted by Washington. This allows for the achievement of this initiative. But, such consensus has not been °ÇĂsÇkskĀWsÇs›Ă÷ĀFÇkĀ°ÇĂsòs÷Ă÷Ā–ÎòĀìsĀìòssĀaÎĎÇ- reached yet since the upstream countries insist- tries, with Ethiopia generating its power, Sudan ed to unilaterally sign the Entebbe Agreement, regulating the incoming river-waters, and Egypt and thereby the agreement—which was planned preserving its water share. All this is done within to be a regional consensus inclusive of upstream the framework of mutual respect between the right and downstream countries together—turned to be to ‘development’ and the right to ‘live’. a mere semi-regional agreement for coordination only among upstream countries. Accordingly, the 6¬sĀ÷saÎÇkĀ÷saĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀì°÷Ā›»sĀaÎĕsò÷ĀFĀÝòÎÝÎ÷F»Ā–ÎòĀ agreement is now inadequate to attract the inter- establishing an inclusive regional cooperation, in- national investments and support expected by a»Ďk°Ç£ĀFĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ°Ç°Ă°FĂ°ĕsĀė°Ă¬ĀìsĀaÎòsĀaÎÇasÝĂĀ partners. that it is important to manage water resources in a joint manner. This stands as the natural approach The objectives and substance of such integrated to preserve the Nile’s environment, maintain peace vision for development and management of the and security, and ensure sustainable development Eastern Nile basin, in addition to the establishment among the Nile’s riparian countries. It is more im- of an administrative authority, are consistent with portant to turn water issues into a part of more in- the trends and working mechanisms of the Nile clusive system in which the interests of upstream Basin Initiative (NBI) that singled out the Eastern and downstream countries are achieved. This leads Nile basin countries with a particular coordination to a consistent water linkage and mutual manage- mechanism to the Blue Nile, which is the Eastern ment among the dams in the three countries, by al- '°»sĀ6sa¬Ç°aF»Ā2s£°ÎÇF»Ā)™asĀà'62)áãĀ lowing fair water drains that cause no harm to up- stream countries and preserve their existing rights.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 61 At the same time, an electricity linkage will be estab- lished to allow drains of the Renaissance Dam pow- er among the three countries or to export this power through the Egyptian grid for the region or for Eu- rope. Another linkage through rail and land routes will be established in parallel, and thereby Ethiopia will be driven out from its geographical isolation as landlocked country reaching to the Mediterranean FÇkĀė°»»ĀF»÷ÎĀWsÇs›ĂĀ–òÎÁĀìsĀ£ěÝĂ°FÇĀÝÎòĂ÷ã

In the third and last section of the Egyptian File, the two sections—the technical section with what is agreed, relating to water management; and the re- gional section with its cooperative projects—are in- tegrated into a draft legal agreement binding on all ÝFòĂ°s÷iĀF÷Ā°ÇĀìsĀÕʜÊĀ£òssÁsÇĂĀWsĂėssÇĀ£ěÝĂĀFÇkĀ Sudan. This agreement is aimed to establish grounds –ÎòĀ –ĎĂĎòsĀ ksF»°Ç£Ā ė°Ă¬Ā ì°÷Ā ›»sãĀ 6¬sĀ ·Î°ÇĂĀ FÇkĀ aÎ- hesive management of water resources among the three countries can be achieved through a regional authority or mechanism that supervises the relation WsĂėssÇĀkFÁ÷ĀFÇkĀÎÝsòFĂ°Ç£ĀWF÷s÷ûĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀ–ÎòĀ›»»- ing, storage and consistent drains; and management of joint projects among the Nile’s riparian countries. It is only by this means that we can put an end to aÎÇasòÇ÷Ā FWÎĎĂĀ ìsĀ °ÇaÎÁ°Ç£Ā þâĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ ò°ĕsòĀ òs- sources from Ethiopia through the Blue Nile.

ĂĀ°÷ĀÇsas÷÷FòěĀĂÎĀaÎǛòÁĀìFĂĀì°÷ĀĂòsÇkĀ°÷Ās÷÷sÇĂ°F»ĀĂÎĀ confront any negative stance by Ethiopia, with refer- ence to Ethiopia’s well-known stance of water obscu- ò°ĂěĀFÇkĀFÁW°£Ď°ĂěãĀ9ÇĂ°»ĀÇÎėiĀì°ÎÝ°FĀ¬F÷ĀÇÎĂĀ÷sĂĀ a bar for its water ambitions, and thus this requires aÎǛǰǣĀ°Ă÷ĀaĎòòsÇĂĀ÷ĂFÇasĀė°Ă¬ĀìsĀÝòÎÝÎ÷skĀaÎÎÝ- eration project which carries vested environmental interests for the river; economic interests for peoples; political and security interests for the country; and regional strategic prospects based on cooperation for countries in general. The collaborative national secu- rity is an established concept and a foundation for relations, and it achieves the objectives of the ‘indi- vidual national security’ for countries.

We are at important historical crossroad by which we may all end as winners if the negotiating position ėF÷Āės»»¯ÁFÇF£skãĀ6¬°÷ĀÁ°£¬ĂĀsÇĂF°»ĀìsĀòsF»°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀ of what I call ‘strategic awareness and discipline’ dur- ing this critical phase, and as expressed by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in his call to keep calm, temper- FĂsĀFÇkĀė°÷sĀė¬°»sĀksF»°Ç£Āė°Ă¬Āì°÷Ā›»sãĀ

After having this Egyptian File prepared—which in- cludes the technical section relating to fair water management and the inclusive and cooperative re- gional section, both integrated together in one draft »s£F»ĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀW°Çk°Ç£ĀÎÇĀF»»ĀÝFòĂ°s÷iĀìsĀ›»sĀė°»»ĀWsĀ submitted to international partners as well as region- al and international institutions to clarify the Egyp-

62 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships Ă°FÇĀÝÎ÷°Ă°ÎÇãĀĂĀ÷ĂFòĂ÷Āė°Ă¬ĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷Ā°Ă÷s»–Ā–ÎòĀ being the responsible for framing the negotiations, launched by Washington for the three parties as of þĀ'ÎĕsÁWsòĀċġÕÊãĀ6¬sĀ›ÇF»ĀòÎĎÇkĀΖĀÇs£ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā°÷Ā expected to be held soon. It aims to clarify Egypt’s s˜ÎòĂ÷Ā ĂÎĀ s÷ĂFW»°÷¬Ā FĀ òs£°ÎÇF»Ā ÝòÎ÷ÝsaĂĀ –ÎòĀ aÎÎÝsò- ation, based on mutual understanding of interests and needs, without imposing any narrow national interests or wills. The regional tension and instabili- ty caused by intransigence and misunderstanding of others’ requirements have unmistakable implications and consequences, which is incompatible with the history of longstanding African relations between Egypt, Ethiopia and the Nile basin.

The key target here in the Egyptian File is to declare a liable stance by which the International Community can govern among the parties and put pressure on the Ethiopian side. It also aims to clarify that Egypt has sought to contain the situation and adopted a good and comprehensive vision, respecting the inter- est of the Nile River and its riparian countries. If the upcoming technical meetings in Washington ended without signing an agreement, it might be FÝÝòÎÝò°FĂsĀ°ÇĀì°÷ĀݬF÷sĀĂÎĀ÷ĎWÁ°ĂĀìsĀ›»sĀĂÎĀ°ÇĂsòÇF- tional bodies—including countries, international and òs£°ÎÇF»ĀÎò£FÇ°ğFĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀFÇkĀ°Ç÷Ă°ĂĎĂ°ÎÇ÷iĀsĂaã}ìòÎĎ£¬Ā diplomatic rounds held within the framework of systematic international action. And should the dis- ÝĎĂsĀaÎÇĂ°ÇĎsiĀì°÷Ā›»sĀÁ°£¬ĂĀWsĀsęĂsÇkskĀĂÎĀìsĀ9'Ā institutions—starting from the General Assembly and the International Security Council, then to the International Court of Justice—naming this dispute as a threat to international safety and security and Ethi- ÎÝ°Fð÷Ā°ÇĂòFÇ÷°£sÇĂĀ÷ĂFÇasĀF÷ĀFĀÁ°÷Ý»FaskĀòsF»°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀ ΖĀò°£¬Ă÷Ā°ÇĀWòsFa¬ĀΖĀìsĀ9'Ā ¬FòĂsòĀF÷Āės»»ĀF÷ĀÎìsòĀ conventions and charters on water issues.

It may also be appropriate to get this just and fraternal Egyptian File submitted to regional and international institutions and partners, as well as to the African Elders Council. Africa continues to be a ‘continent of elders and presidents’ who are capable of making course corrections and restoring stability and tranquility to any of the courses threatening the secu- rity and stability of their countries. It is hard to believe that the whole situation, with its threats and implications on the continent’s security and stability, is far from the understanding by the three leaders of countries, which is closer to launching the most important develop- ment project in Africa—what is called the Eastern Development Corridor of the Blue Nile Basin Countries.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 63 Water Rivalry on the Nile*

Dr. Hani Sewilam 0òΖs÷÷ÎòĀΖĀ@FĂsòĀ2s÷ÎĎòas÷Ā&FÇF£sÁsÇĂiĀ°òsaĂÎòĀΖĀ9'4 ) ¬F°òĀ°ÇĀěkòλΣ°aF»Ā ¬FÇ£s÷ĀFÇkĀ@FĂsòĀ&FÇF£ÁsÇĂiĀĀFa¬sÇĀ9Ç°ĕsò÷°Ăěã

Following Egypt’s January 25 uprising in 2011, 9Ç°ĕsò÷°ĂěĀÝòΖs÷÷ÎòĀΖĀÁsa¬FÇ°aF»ĀsÇ£°Çssò°Ç£Ā÷- Ethiopia started building a huge dam, the Grand –FėĀ sěsÇsiĀ¬FĕsĀF£òsskĀìFĂĀìsĀ2Ā°÷ĀÎĕsò÷°ğskiĀ Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), upriver. The and that it will not be able to generate the amount aÎÇaòsĂsĀĕλĎÁsĀΖĀìsĀkFÁĀ°÷ĀÕġãœĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀÁĆiĀÁF¹- of energy that has been publicly announced, or ing it the largest dam—per volume—in Africa. It is even half of it. In addition, most of the generated located on the Blue Nile, 700 kilometers northwest hydropower is slated for export, leaving the poor of the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, and about Ethiopians in darkness. It is clear that politics in twenty kilometers from the Ethiopia–Sudan border. this case trump legitimate engineering and human It is worth noting that the Blue Nile accounts for principles in favor of storing water and controlling ÁÎòsĀìFÇĀ¬F»–ĀΖĀìsĀFĕsòF£sĀFÇÇĎF»ĀžÎėĀΖĀ'°»sĀ the Blue Nile. water to Egypt. The GERD will store water in an area of 1,800 square Ethiopia claims that the sole purpose of building ¹°»ÎÁsĂsò÷}»Fò£sòĀìFÇĀìsĀ÷°ğsĀΖĀ$ÎÇkÎÇ}òs÷Ď»Ă- the dam is to generate energy necessary for its ing in enormous evaporation and seepage losses in economy. The dam represents an important con- addition to possible upstream usage. These billions nection between water security and energy gener- of cubic meters in losses will be cut from Egypt ation. In general, building a dam for energy gener- and Sudan’s water share. The potential reduction ation should not be a problem because the water °ÇĀìsĀ'°»sĀėFĂsòĀžÎė°Ç£ĀĂÎĀ£ěÝĂĀaÎÁs÷ĀFĂĀFĀĂ°ÁsĀ ìFĂĀė°»»ĀòĎÇĀìsĀĂĎòW°Çs÷Āė°»»ĀaÎÇĂ°ÇĎsĀžÎė°Ç£ĀĂÎĀ ė¬sÇĀìsĀaÎĎÇĂòěĀ°÷Ā÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂ»ěĀkòÎÝÝ°Ç£ĀWs»ÎėĀ downstream countries, in this case to Egypt and the water poverty line and approaching the abso- Sudan. However, the construction of this gigantic lute scarcity limit. The water poverty line is reached kFÁiĀė¬°a¬Ā¬F÷ĀFĀü ¯W°»»°ÎǯaĎW°a¯ÁsĂsòĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀ when the available freshwater share per person is that can theoretically store as much water as the 1,000 cubic meters of water every year. Egypt is total annual share of Egypt and Sudan combined, approaching the 500-cubic-meter mark per person °÷ĀFĀaÎÁÝ»sĂs»ěĀk°˜sòsÇĂĀ÷ĂÎòěã (per year). An additional water shortage caused by the GERD will enlarge the existing gap between the Hoping for a better life and access to electricity, water supply and current demand. the Ethiopian people funded the GERD with their limited resources in the hopes that it might generate Clearly, Egypt’s key concern regarding the GERD FĀÝòηsaĂskĀÝÎėsòĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀΖĀFĂĀ»sF÷ĂĀþiġġġĀÁs£- is safeguarding the lives of more than 100 million FėFĂĂ÷ãĀ°˜sòsÇĂĀsęÝsòĂ÷iĀ÷Ďa¬ĀF÷Ā4FÇĀ°s£ÎĀ4ĂFĂsĀ Egyptians and sustaining the country’s water sup-

64 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships ply, especially since Egypt depends on the river will lose their income, which will increase the pos- –ÎòĀÊüĀÝsòasÇĂĀΖĀ°Ă÷ĀėFĂsòĀÇssk÷iĀė°Ă¬ĀìsĀòsÁF°Ç- sibility of migration and displacement of people to ing three percent supplied by light rainfall on the neighboring countries, create more instability and northern coast and in the Sinai Peninsula and by potentially exacerbate the threat of terrorism, from non-renewable groundwater. ė¬°a¬ĀìsĀòs£°ÎÇĀ°÷ĀF»òsFkěĀ÷Ϙsò°Ç£ã

Indeed, the risk of water shortage caused by the 2Āė°»»Āk°òsaĂ»ěĀF˜saĂĀ–ÎÎkĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀ÷saĎ- THE FIGHT OVER RESOURCES ò°ĂěĀ°ÇĀ£ěÝĂãĀ&ÎòsÎĕsòiĀòskĎa°Ç£ĀìsĀžÎėĀΖĀėFĂsòĀ ĂÎĀ£ěÝĂĀė°»»ĀkòFÁFĂ°aF»»ěĀF˜saĂĀìsĀòs÷°»°sÇasĀΖĀ The GERD project is an alarming example of com- the Egyptian Aswan High Dam, which stores water petition over water, energy, and food resources in to be used by Egypt and Sudan during draughts. the Nile Basin. Ethiopia’s use of the dam to generate 6¬°÷Ā°ÇĀĂĎòÇĀė°»»ĀF»÷ÎĀÇs£FĂ°ĕs»ěĀF˜saĂĀìsĀFÁÎĎÇĂĀ energy while Sudan and Egypt wait for their share of electricity generated from the Egyptian dam. In of water to produce energy and food could become addition to the technical and economic impacts a grave issue, especially as populations inhabiting of the dam on Egypt, the GERD will have serious basin countries increase dramatically and their wa- environmental consequences such as higher soil ter, energy, and food demands rapidly grow. salinity, less groundwater recharge, and more sea- water intrusion. In order to secure these three resources for the en- tire basin, there is a need to understand the reality Therefore, reaching an agreement between Ethio- regarding their availability. Indeed, there is a mis- Ý°FiĀ4ĎkFÇiĀFÇkĀ£ěÝĂĀÎÇĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀ»ÎÇ£¯ĂsòÁĀ conception that Egypt is getting the biggest share ÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀkFÁĀWs–ÎòsĀì°ÎÝ°FĀ÷ĂFòĂ÷Ā›»»°Ç£Ā of the Nile water compared to the other Nile Basin GERD is a serious issue for Egypt. A reduction of countries. As a matter of fact, the river water reach- water availability by only one billion cubic meters ing Egypt amounts to about 0.8 percent of the rain- at Aswan (a value that is much lower than most fall of the eleven Nile Basin countries. This means 2Ā›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇĀÝòsk°aĂ°ÎÇĀ÷asÇFò°Î÷áĀ ìsòsĀ°÷ĀÁÎòsĀìFÇĀÊÊĀÝsòasÇĂĀΖĀėFĂsòĀòs÷ÎĎòas÷Ā ė°»»Āòs÷Ď»ĂĀ°ÇĀFÇĀF£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»ĀÝòÎkĎaĂ°ÎÇĀ»Î÷÷ĀΖĀp ĆġĀ that Egypt cannot access. Á°»»°ÎÇĀFÇkĀΖĀF»ÁÎ÷ĂĀċÊ iġġġĀ–skkFÇ÷Ā°ÇĀF£ò°aĎ»- tural land, as well as an increase in agricultural 6¬sĀ¹sěĀĂÎĀòs÷λĕ°Ç£ĀìsĀaĎòòsÇĂĀaÎǞ°aĂĀ°÷Ā–ÎòĀ'°»sĀĀ °ÁÝÎòĂ÷ĀWěĀċãċĀÝsòasÇĂãĀ&ÎòsÎĕsòiĀċÊġiġġġĀ–FÁ°»°s÷Ā Basin countries to collaborate in making use of the

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 65 ÕiþþġĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀΖĀFÇÇĎF»ĀòF°Ç–F»»Ā°ÇĀìsĀ 4ĂFòĂ°Ç£Ā °ÇĀ ÕÊ ÊiĀ £ěÝĂĀ÷°£ÇskĀFÇĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀFÇkĀ Nile Basin or even the 7,000 billion cubic meters provided £1 million to support the construction of ΖĀFÇÇĎF»ĀòF°ÇĀìFĂĀ–F»»÷Ā÷Ýsa°›aF»»ěĀ°ÇĀìsĀs»sĕsÇĀ )ėsÇĀF»»÷ĀkFÁĀ°ÇĀ9£FÇkFãĀ6¬sĀkFÁĀ¬s»ÝskĀÝòÎ- Nile Basin countries. This can be used in generating vide hydropower for development and regulate the sÇsò£ěĀFÇkĀÝòÎkĎa°Ç£Ā–ÎÎkĀòFìsòĀìFÇĀF˜saĂ°Ç£Ā žÎėĀ ΖĀ ėFĂsòĀ kÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀ ĂÎėFòkĀ ìsĀ ÷ÎĎìsòÇĀ the main source of water in Egypt, which only uti- òs£°ÎÇ÷ĀΖĀ9£FÇkFãĀ2sasÇĂ»ěiĀìsĀ£ěÝĂ°FÇĀaÎÁÝFÇěĀ »°ğs÷ĀœœãœĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀÁsĂsò÷ĀΖĀ'°»sĀėFĂsòĀFĀěsFòiĀ Arab Contractors in a joint venture with Elsewedy representing only three percent of the total rainfall Electric Company announced that it had started over the basin. There is a need to think in a more work on the 2,100-megawatt Stiegler’s Gorge hydro- cooperative and participatory way, where all Nile s»saĂò°aĀkFÁĀ°ÇĀ6FÇğFÇ°FãĀ6¬°÷ĀÝòηsaĂĀ°÷ĀsÇkÎò÷skĀ Basin countries collaborate in harvesting rainwater and supported by the Egyptian government. More- rather than disturb the only lifeline for Egyptians. over, Egypt conducted the feasibility studies for a 6¬°÷Ā°÷Āė¬FĂĀėsĀaF»»ĀWsÇs›Ă¯÷¬Fò°Ç£ĀFÇkĀFĀė°Ç¯ė°ÇĀ multi-purpose dam in South Sudan. solution. This spirit of collaboration should extend to agricul- In fact, Egypt has a long history of supporting Nile ture and food production projects. There is much Basin countries in water management projects on fertile land and enough rainfall in the basin to pro- the upper reaches of the river. Egypt has never ob- duce energy and food for everyone. Energy is not jected to the development of the Nile Basin nor only restricted to hydropower; solar energy in the does it object to the construction of dams that do WF÷°ÇĀ°÷ĀĎÇksòĎĂ°»°ğskiĀs÷Ýsa°F»»ěĀė¬sÇĀaÎÇ÷°ksò°Ç£Ā ÇÎĂĀ aFĎ÷sĀ ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ ¬FòÁĀ ĂÎĀ £ěÝĂ°FÇ÷ãĀ )ÇĀ ìsĀ that the basin includes areas that are among the contrary, Egypt has supported the construction of highest in solar radiation on earth. A political vision kFÁ÷Ā °ÇĀ k°˜sòsÇĂĀ '°»sĀ F÷°ÇĀ aÎĎÇĂò°s÷Ā –ÎòĀ s°Ă¬sòĀ which considers all countries along the Nile as one hydropower or rainfall-harvesting purposes. For ex- unit that shares knowledge and resources is key to FÁÝ»siĀ£ěÝĂĀ÷ĎÝÝÎòĂ÷Ā4ÎĎìĀ4ĎkFÇiĀ9£FÇkFiĀ#sÇěFiĀ ¬Fĕ°Ç£Ā÷ϙa°sÇĂĀėFĂsòiĀsÇsò£ěiĀFÇkĀ–ÎÎkĀ–ÎòĀF»»Ā'°»sĀ ÎÇ£ÎiĀFÇkĀ6FÇğFÇ°Fð÷ĀÝĎò÷Ď°Ă÷ĀĂÎĀWĎ°»kĀÇsėĀkFÁ÷Ā Basin countries. and implement water development projects.

66 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships ÝÎòĂFÇasĀΖĀòs÷sFòa¬Ās˜ÎòĂ÷Ā£sFòskĀĂÎėFòkĀ÷λĕ°Ç£Ā the irrigation water problem more than tackling drinking or industrial water, the Center for Applied Research on the Environment and Sustainability à 24áĀFĂĀ9 Ās÷ĂFW»°÷¬skĀìsĀí@ĀÇsęĎ÷Ā»FWîĀ ›ĕsĀěsFò÷ĀF£ÎãĀĂĀF°Á÷ĀĂÎĀaÎÇĂò°WĎĂsĀĂÎĀėFĂsòiĀsÇsò£ěiĀ and food security not only in Egypt, but also in the Middle East and Africa.

The focus of the CARES’ WEF (Water-Energy-Food) nexus model is to use solar energy to power desal- ination, which is expensive due to its high-energy consumption, and then use the desalinated water to produce food in an environmentally friendly manner. The adopted desalination technique, For- ward Osmosis, has low energy consumption which allows the complete use of solar energy for the desalination process. The desalinated water is then Ď÷skĀĂÎĀÝòÎkĎasĀaòÎÝ÷ĀFÇkĀ›÷¬Ā–òÎÁĀìsĀ÷FÁsĀĎÇ°ĂĀ of water. Fish waste then serves as nutrients for the crops, which help produce 100 percent organic food.

In addition, the desalination reject brine (which is a harmful byproduct for the environment) was suc- cessfully tested and proven to produce algae and is currently being tested to produce artemia, or brine shrimp. If the testing of the artemia proves successful, it will close our “nexus” loop since it would be used F÷Ā–sskĀ–ÎòĀìsĀ›÷¬ãĀ6¬sĀĕsòěĀ÷Ďaas÷÷ĀΖĀì°÷Āòs÷sFòa¬Ā depends on developing a closed loop in which the A TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTION FOR ÷ĎÇĀFÇkĀ÷sFėFĂsòĀFòsĀ¬Fòĕs÷ĂskĀĂÎĀÝòÎkĎasĀ›÷¬ĀFÇkĀ WATER SCARCITY crops without disposing of any waste into the envi- Aside from the GERD, current water scarcity and òÎÇÁsÇĂiĀFÇkĀ°ÇĀė¬°a¬ĀìsĀ›÷¬ĀFòsĀìsÇĀ–skã food production in Egypt, like in most Middle East- ern countries, are serious challenges that are directly linked to population growth and the overuse of CARES is now collaborating with sev- water. To produce one kilogram of wheat requires eral national and international partners FWÎĎĂĀġġĀ»°Ăsò÷ĀΖĀėFĂsòiĀFÇkĀÎÇĀFĕsòF£siĀ›–ĂssÇĀ FÇkĀ °÷Ā ėÎò¹°Ç£Ā ĂÎėFòkĀ aÎÁÁsòa°F»°ğ- thousand liters of water are needed to produce one ing its WEF model and bringing it into kilogram of beef, an amount of water which is al- application. Nothing can replace Nile most the volume of one-and-a-half concrete mixer water for Egypt, but more research and ĂòĎa¹÷ãĀ6¬s÷sĀÇĎÁWsò÷Āk°˜sòĀ–òÎÁĀÎÇsĀaÎĎÇĂòěĀĂÎĀ innovation similar to the work carried another and depend mainly on production tech- out by CARES is urgently needed to en- niques and the technologies used. The moral of ¬FÇasĀėFĂsòĀĎ÷sĀs™a°sÇaěĀFÇkĀksĕs»ÎÝĀ ìs÷sĀ›£Ďòs÷Ā°÷ĀìFĂĀÁÎòsĀìFÇĀĂėÎ¯Ă¬°òk÷ĀΖĀìsĀ new technologies for desalination and world’s freshwater is used for agriculture, such as in wastewater treatment. Such innovations Egypt, where about 80 percent of the freshwater is could be part of the solution to face the used for agriculture irrigation. In order for Egypt and increasing population and associated the entire Middle East to deal with water scarcity, water demand in Egypt and the entire researchers are focusing on fostering and applying Middle East, especially when such solu- the concept of “producing more with less,” or to use tions are based on local resources such another expression, “more crop per drop,” which as the sun, seawater, and sand. means producing more food using less water.

)ĎòĀòs÷sFòa¬ĀĂsFÁĀFĂĀìsĀÁsò°aFÇĀ9Ç°ĕsò÷°ĂěĀ°ÇĀ Source: Hani Sewilam, «Water Rivalry on the Nile», The Cairo Review of F°òÎĀà9 áĀ°÷ĀėÎò¹°Ç£ĀĂÎĀĎÇksò÷ĂFÇkĀìsĀ°ÇĂsòòs- Global Affairs, April 14, 2020 »FĂ°ÎÇ÷¬°ÝĀ WsĂėssÇĀ ėFĂsòĀ FÇkĀ –ÎÎkĀĂÎĀ Á°Ç°Á°ğsĀ https://www.thecairoreview.com/tahrir-forum/water-rivalry-on-the-nile/ ìsĀėFĂsòĀ–ÎÎĂÝò°ÇĂĀΖĀÎĎòĀ–ÎÎk÷ãĀ2sF»°ğ°Ç£ĀìsĀ°Á-

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 67

Appendices

Egypt-Ethiopia Nile Water Dispute: A Timeline

Full text of the “Declaration of Principles” Between Egypt, Ethio- pia and Sudan on the GERD Project

Letter of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Egypt to the Security Council, June 2020 Egypt-Ethiopia Nile Water Dispute:

A Timeline*

1899 Having occupied Egypt in 1882, Britain puts Sudan – conquered by Mohamed Ali in 1820 – under its imperial rule. A governor-general, appointed by Egypt with British consent, administers it.

The British begin construction of the Aswan Low FÁãĀs÷°£ÇskĀĂÎĀ÷ĂÎòsĀFÇÇĎF»ĀžÎÎkėFĂsòĀFÇkĀFĎ£- ÁsÇĂĀkòěĀ÷sF÷ÎÇĀžÎė÷iĀ°ĂĀė°»»ĀWλ÷ĂsòĀ°òò°£FĂ°ÎÇĀFÇkĀ help support Egypt’s growing population.

1902 The Aswan Low Dam is completed, and opens on 10 December.

The dam, though its scale is unprecedented at the time, operates as designed but later provesto have an inadequate reservoir capacity.Its height is raised twicebut it still fails to keep up with growing irri- £FĂ°ÎÇĀksÁFÇk÷iĀsĕsÇĂĎF»»ěĀ»sFk°Ç£ĀĂÎĀìsĀžÎFĂ°Ç£Ā Article three of the treaty stipulates: “His Majesty ΖĀìsĀ°ksFĀΖĀFÇĀ÷ėFÇĀ¬°£¬ĀkFÁĀ°ÇĀìsĀÕʜġ÷ã the Emperor Menelik II, King of Kings of Ethiopia, engages himself towards the Government of His ՜Ā&FěĀÕÊġċhĀìsĀÇ£»Î¯ì°ÎÝ°FÇĀ6òsFĂěĀĀĀ Britannic Majesty not to construct, or allow to be constructed, any work across the Blue Nile, Lake Ethiopia’s Emperor Menelik and British envoy Lt. 6÷FÇFiĀÎòĀìsĀ4ÎWFĂĀė¬°a¬ĀėÎĎ»kĀFòòs÷ĂĀìsĀžÎėĀ Col. John Lane Harrington sign an agreement to of their waters into the Nile except in agreement ÷saĎòsĀìsĀžÎėĀΖĀìsĀ'°»sĀkÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀ°ÇĀkk°÷Ā with His Britannic Majesty’s Government and the Ababa. Government of the Soudan.”

70 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships 9 January 1960 At the time Ethiopia has no irrigation schemes to speak of. Having secured Egypt’s share of Nile water, con- struction of the Aswan High Dam begins. It is 9Ç»°¹sĀ–ĎĂĎòsĀ'°»sĀėFĂsòĀF£òssÁsÇĂ÷Ā÷°£ÇskĀWěĀaÎ- £ěÝĂð÷ĀW°££s÷ĂĀÇFĂ°ÎÇF»ĀÝòηsaĂĀ÷°ÇasĀìsĀ4ĎsğĀ FÇF»Ā lonial powers which excluded Addis Ababa, this FÇkĀ°Ă÷Ā£òFÇkĀÁÎksòÇ°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀÝòηsaĂãĀ6¬sĀkFÁĀ°÷ĀFĀ is the only agreement signed by Ethiopia guaran- symbol of nationalism and independence that will Ăss°Ç£ĀìsĀĎǬ°ÇksòskĀžÎėĀΖĀìsĀ'°»sãĀ6¬sĀĂòsFĂěĀ put the Nile River under the control of man for the òsÁF°Ç÷ĀìsĀÁÎ÷ĂĀFĎìÎò°ĂFĂ°ĕsĀ°Ç÷ĂòĎÁsÇĂĀks›Ç°Ç£Ā ›ò÷ĂĀĂ°ÁsĀ°ÇĀ¬°÷ĂÎòěã the water rights of Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia until the second half of the 20th century. Addis Ababa becomes a reliable partner of the West in its struggle against the communist East during Nile Waters Agreement :1929 the Cold War, and Haile Selassie wins American support for plans to develop his country through £ěÝĂĀFÇkĀòsFĂĀ ò°ĂF°ÇiĀòsÝòs÷sÇĂ°Ç£Ā9£FÇkFiĀ#sÇ- large-scale water infrastructures. ěFiĀ6FÇ£FÇě°¹FĀàÇÎėĀ6FÇğFÇ°FáĀFÇkĀ4ĎkFÇiĀ÷°£ÇĀFÇĀ agreement giving Cairo the right to veto projects sĂėssÇĀÕʜþĀFÇkĀÕÊþ ĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷Ā ĎòsFĎĀ ¬°£¬sòĀĎÝĀìsĀ'°»sĀìFĂĀF˜saĂĀ°Ă÷ĀėFĂsòĀ÷¬Fòsã of Reclamation conducts a survey of the Blue Nile, which is eventually used to identify the site for the The agreement allocates 55.5 bcm of water to Egypt Ethiopian dam project. and 18.5 bcm to Sudan.

1935 ĂF»ěĀ°ÇĕFks÷Āì°ÎÝ°FiĀFÇkĀ ò°ĂF°ÇĀòsaΣǰğs÷ĀìsĀ ksĀ·ĎòsĀ÷ĂFĂĎ÷Ā°ÇÕÊĆþã

1954 4ÎÎÇĀF–ĂsòĀìsĀÕʜċĀ"Ď»ěĀ2sĕλĎĂ°ÎÇĀWò°Ç£÷ĀìsĀòssĀ )™asò÷ĀĂÎĀÝÎėsòĀ£ěÝĂð÷ĀÇsėĀ»sFksò÷¬°ÝĀĂF¹s÷ĀĎÝĀ the reins of the ambitious Aswan High Dam project, conceived in the last years of the monarchy. Cold War political maneuvering leads to the withdrawal of funding pledged by world powers and construc- tion is delayed for years. Work on the project even- ĂĎF»»ěĀòs÷ĎÁs÷Ā°ÇĀÕʜĀė°Ă¬Ā9442Ā÷ĎÝÝÎòĂã

1956 ì°ÎÝ°FĀaÎÇĂs÷Ă÷Ā~ĀĂÎĀ»°ĂĂ»sĀs˜saĂĀ~ĀìsĀĕF»°k°ĂěĀΖĀìsĀ Anglo-Ethiopian treaty, on the grounds that Britain òsaΣǰğskĀĂF»ěð÷ĀksĀ·ĎòsĀÎaaĎÝFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀì°ÎÝ°FãĀ 1970

Ā'ÎĕsÁWsòĀÕʜÊhĀ£ěÝĂ¯4ĎkFÇĀ'°»sĀėFĂsò÷ĀF£òss- Construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD) is ment completed. It is fully operational two years later.

Egypt and Sudan sign the agreement, which sup- The dam is 111 meters high, with a crest length of Ý»sÁsÇĂ÷ĀìsĀÕÊċÊĀĂòsFĂěiĀ°ÇĀ F°òÎãĀĂĀF»»Îė÷ĀWÎìĀ ĆiĆġĀÁsĂòs÷iĀFÇkĀFĀĕλĎÁsĀΖĀ ãĆĀÁ°»»°ÎÇĀaĎW°aĀ countries full, rather than partial use, of Nile waters, meters. The $1 billion project captures the Nile riv- FÇkĀaÎǛòÁ÷Ā£ěÝĂð÷Āò°£¬ĂĀĂÎĀœœãœĀWaÁĀFÇÇĎF»»ěiĀFÇkĀ er in its reservoir, Lake Nasser, which is the third Sudan’s to 18.5 bcm. »Fò£s÷ĂĀ°ÇĀìsĀėÎò»kĀė°Ă¬ĀFĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀΖĀÕþÊĀWaÁãĀ ĂĀ°÷ĀaÎÇ÷ĂòĎaĂskĀĂÎĀaÎÇĂòλĀĂėÎĀFÇÇĎF»ĀžÎÎk÷Ā÷ÎĀ The agreement is designed to allow Egypt to build that, in the event of drought, Egypt can still have ìsĀ÷ėFÇĀ°£¬ĀFÁĀìFĂĀF˜saĂ÷Ā4ĎkFÇiĀė¬°a¬Ā°÷Ā ÷ϙa°sÇĂĀėFĂsòã ė¬ěĀ#¬FòĂÎĎÁĀ°÷ĀFĀÝFòĂěiĀWĎĂĀkÎs÷ĀÇÎĂĀF˜saĂĀì°- opia, which is therefore not included as a party to AHD releases approximately 55.5bcm annually and the treaty. provides Egypt with half of its power.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 71 1974 October 2009 Emperor Haile Selassie is overthrown by the Derg, The Ethiopian Government surveys the Benis- a Marxist-Leninist military junta. Ethiopia descends ¬FÇ£Ď»¯ĎÁĎğĀ òs£°ÎÇiĀ ՜Ā ¹ÁĀ sF÷ĂĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ WÎòksòĀ into civil war – accompanied by economic decline with Sudan. and periodic famines – for the next three decades.

June 2010 1991 £ěÝĂĀFÇkĀ4ĎkFÇĀ–òssğsĀìs°òĀÁsÁWsò÷¬°ÝĀΖĀìsĀ Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front NBI after six member states sign the Cooperative (EPRD) deposes autocrat President Mengistu Haile Framework Agreement (CFA), also known as the Mariam. He is succeeded by Meles Zenawi who Entebbe Agreement, which seeks to redraw Egypt rules for the next two decades. and Sudan’s Nile water share.

The Cairo Cooperation Framework :1993 Egypt, a water impoverished nation with a pop- Ď»FĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀĆĀÁ°»»°ÎÇiĀ°÷ĀaÎÁÝ»sĂs»ěĀksÝsÇksÇĂĀÎÇĀ the Nile (and the Aswan High Dam’s reservoir Lake Nasser) forfresh water, 85 per cent of which origi- nates in Ethiopia.

November 2010 A design for an Ethiopian dam to be built in the sÇ°÷¬FÇ£Ď»¯ĎÁĎğĀòs£°ÎÇiĀkĎWWskĀ0òηsaĂĀAĀFĂĀìsĀ time, is accepted.

December 2010 Project X, now known as the Millennium Dam pro- ject, is launched.

2011 February: Hosni Mubarak steps down in February in the face of a mass uprising. The constitution is suspended, parliament is dissolved and a transition- al period, which will continue until 2012, begins. Later Cairo will view this period, when Egypt is Egypt and Ethiopia pledge not to implement water consumed by internal instability, as an opportuni- projects harmful to the interests of the other, and to ty which Addis Ababa grabbed to impose a new consult over projects to reduce waste and increase reality on the ground vis-à-vis the dam. ìsĀžÎėĀΖĀ'°»sĀėFĂsòã ĆÕĀ&Fòa¬hĀĀkFěĀF–ĂsòĀìsĀ&°»»sÇÇ°ĎÁĀFÁĀÝòηsaĂĀ 1995 °÷ĀÁFksĀÝĎW»°aĀFĀ94p ãĀW°»»°ÎÇĀaÎÇĂòFaĂĀ°÷ĀFėFòkskĀ to the Italian company Salini Costruttori. The dam’s A new constitution is promulgated, creating the Fed- foundation stone is laid on 2 Aprilby Prime Minister eral Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, with Meles Meles Zenawi. Zenawi as prime minister. Thedesign phase of the project was kept secret by ĀsWòĎFòěĀÕÊÊÊhĀ6¬sĀ'°»sĀ F÷°ÇĀÇ°Ă°FĂ°ĕsĀà' á the Ethiopian government until a month ago.

The initiative, supported by the World Bank, brings 6¬sĀÝ»FÇÇskĀ¬ěkòÎÝÎėsòĀÝ»FÇĂĀ¬F÷ĀFĀþiœġġĀ&@Ā together Nile Basin countries. They agree to develop £sÇsòFĂ°Ç£Ā aFÝFa°ĂěĀFÇkĀFĀ ü ĀWaÁĀ òs÷sòĕΰòãĀ ĂĀ °÷Ā the river in a cooperative manner and share the projected to increase electricity access in Ethiopia to ÷Îa°ÎsaÎÇÎÁ°aĀWsÇs›Ă÷ã 50 per cent, a make Ethiopia Africa’s largest power exporter. The GERD is a source of national pride It NBI is hailed as a milestone for regulating the way and a symbol of Ethiopia’s “renaissance” and, like the Nile is used within an institutional framework ìsĀ÷ėFÇĀ°£¬ĀFÁiĀ°Ă÷ĀÁÎksòÇ°ğFĂ°ÎÇãĀĀ –ÎòĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀĂ°ÁsĀ°ÇĀF»ÁÎ÷ĂĀFĀasÇĂĎòěã

72 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships 15 April: Ethiopia’s Council of Ministers renames the F»÷ÎĀÝΰÇĂ÷ĀĂÎĀžFė÷Ā°ÇĀ2ð÷Āks÷°£ÇĀ÷Ýsa°›aFĂ°ÎÇ÷iĀ Millennium Dam (originally Project X) the Grand casting doubt over the dam’s structural safety and Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). stability.

2011-2013 ċĀ&FěċġÕĆhĀì°ÎÝ°FĀ÷ĂFòĂ÷Āk°ĕsòĂ°Ç£ĀìsĀ »ĎsĀ'°»sĀ to make way for GERD. A trilateral technical joint committee is formed to discuss all issues pertaining to the dam. An inter- ĆĀ"Ď»ěĀċġÕĆhĀ0òs÷°ksÇĂĀ&άFÁskĀ&Îò÷°Ā°÷ĀksÝÎ÷skĀ national panel of experts (IPoE) from Egypt, Sudan by the military following popular protests. GERD and Ethiopia, supplemented by four international negotiations are put on hold. experts, is established. 2014-2015 The IPoE produces a report, based on agreed Terms of Reference, covering, among other things, the safe- ty and stability of the dam, hydrological studies, and its environmental and social impacts.

On 8 March, 2012 Sudan’s president Omar El-Bashir tells the newly appointed Ethiopian ambassador to Khartoum that his country supports GERD.

Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood is elected president of

Egypt in May 2012 Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s prime minister who ruled GERD talks resume after Egypt’s defence minister the country for two decades, dies in August 2012. Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi is elected president in June He is succeeded by Foreign Minister Hailemariam ċġÕ ã Desalegn in September. The tripartite committee selects a French and a 2013-2014 ĎĂa¬ĀaÎÇ÷Ď»ĂFÇaěĀ›òÁĀĂÎĀaÎÇkĎaĂĀìsĀ2Ā°Á- ÝFaĂĀ÷ĂĎk°s÷ĀòsaÎÁÁsÇkskĀ°ÇĀċġÕĆã The Tripartite National Committee holds technical talks on how to move forward and address the Legal and political negotiations lead to the trilater- IPoE’s 2011 recommendations, which include the al agreement, the Declaration of Principles (DoP), conduct of additional studies to assess the dam’s signed by the three heads of state in March 2015 in impact. Khartoum.

Ethiopia shares design and technical information The three countries commit to take all necessary but fails to produce documents on the socio-eco- ÁsF÷Ďòs÷ĀĂÎĀFĕΰkĀaFĎ÷°Ç£Ā÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ¬FòÁĀĂÎĀÎÇsĀ nomic, hydrologic and environmental impacts of another. They agree to ask for mediation should 2ĀkĎò°Ç£ĀFÇkĀF–ĂsòĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀÝsò°Îkã they fail to solve outstanding disputes over the dam through negotiations. ì°ÎÝ°Fð÷ĀÝFò»°FÁsÇĂĀòFĂ°›s÷ĀFĀaÎÇĂòÎĕsò÷°F»ĀĂòsFĂěĀ ĂÎĀòsÝ»FasĀìsĀÕʜÊĀ'°»sĀėFĂsòĀF£òssÁsÇĂã ÇĀ›–ìĀÝò°Ça°Ý»sĀsÇ÷¬ò°ÇskĀ°ÇĀìsĀÎ0Ā÷ĂFĂs÷ĀìFĂĀ the studies recommended by the IPoE will be used May: Egypt’s state statistics agency (CAPMAS) re- F÷ĀìsĀWF÷°÷Ā–ÎòĀìsĀòĎ»s÷Ā£ÎĕsòÇ°Ç£ĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀ leases a report documenting the decline in water operation of GERD, and that the entire negotiating òs÷ÎĎòas÷ĀÝsòĀaFÝ°ĂFãĀÇĀċġÕĆĀ°ĂĀ÷ĂÎÎkĀFĂĀþþĆÁĆĀÝsòĀ process should be completed within 15 months. aFÝ°ĂFiĀ¬Fĕ°Ç£Āksa»°ÇskĀ–òÎÁĀÕiþüċĀÁĆĀ°ÇĀÕÊüġiĀFÇkĀ ċiœċþĀÁĆĀ°ÇĀÕÊ üãĀ6¬sĀF£sÇaěĀÝòsk°aĂ÷ĀìFĂĀWěĀċġċœĀ ÎòĀìsĀÇsęĂĀ›ĕsĀěsFò÷Āì°ÎÝ°FĀ–F°»÷ĀĂÎĀks»°ĕsòĀÎÇĀFĀ ìsĀFÇÇĎF»Ā›£ĎòsĀė°»»Ākė°Çk»sĀĂÎĀœċĀÁĆĀÝsòĀÝsò÷ÎÇã single DoP commitment.

IPoE issues a report that concludes the documents 2016-2017 submitted by Ethiopia assessing GERD’s impact on kÎėÇ÷ĂòsFÁĀò°ÝFò°FÇĀ÷ĂFĂs÷ĀaÎÇĂF°ÇĀ°Ç÷ϙa°sÇĂĀks- The French engineering consultancies Artelia and tail on the planned operation of the dam. The report 2$°ĀòÎĎÝĀFòsĀ¬°òskĀsFò»ěĀ°ÇĀċġÕþãĀĀ2s£Ď»FòĀÁssĂ-

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 73 2019 ings between technical and political parties are held ĂÎĀks›ÇsĀìsĀ÷aÎÝsĀΖĀìsĀ÷ĂĎk°s÷ĀFÇkĀÝĎĂĀFĀĂsFÁĀ Egypt makes a proposal on the operation of GERD, of consultants together. Disagreements over the based on NISRG principles. It is rejected in August baseline to be used to assess GERD impacts lead by Ethiopia. to delays in starting the studies. Al-Sisi calls for international intervention in the ne- &FěĀċġÕühĀ6¬sĀòsÇa¬ĀaÎÇ÷Ď»ĂFÇaěĀ›òÁ÷Ā°÷÷ĎsĀìs°òĀ £ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇ÷ĀkĎò°Ç£ĀìsĀ9'ĀsÇsòF»Ā÷÷sÁW»ěð÷Āü ìĀ preliminary reports. Egypt accepts them in October. session. In the same session Ethiopian President Sudan and Ethiopia express reservations. Sahle-Work Zewde reiterates her country’s commit- ment to reaching a deal. Egypt fears that, depending on the timetable for ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòiĀ°Ă÷Ā÷ĎÝÝ»ěĀΖĀ'°»sĀėFĂsòĀaÎĎ»kĀ Following meetings of the irrigation and water re- be seriously compromised. A reduction of 1bcm sources ministers of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, the availability at at the Aswan Dam will result in spokesperson of the Egyptian Ministry of Water ċÊ iġġġĀ–skkFÇĀΖĀF£ò°aĎ»ĂĎòF»Ā»FÇkĀWs°Ç£ĀĂF¹sÇĀÎĎĂĀ Recourses and Irrigation states that negotiations of production, a 2,2 per cent increase in agricultural have reached a dead-end due to Ethiopia’s “in- °ÁÝÎòĂ÷ĀFÇkĀìsĀ»Î÷÷ĀΖĀċÊġiġġġĀ÷sF÷ÎÇF»Ā·ÎW÷ã transigency”.

2018 Ethiopia presents a proposal that Egypt rejects be- cause its does not include operational rules for the Ethiopia rejects an Egyptian suggestion that the 2iĀFÇkĀΘsò÷ĀĂÎĀÇs£ÎĂ°FĂ°ÎÇĀìsÁĀFÇÇĎF»»ěã World Bank be invited to observe, and when nec- essary mediate, the work of the Tripartite National In response to Egypt’s request for a mediator the Committee. Tripartite meetings resume. 9Ç°ĂskĀ4ĂFĂs÷ĀWsaÎÁs÷Ā°ÇĕλĕskĀ°ÇĀìsĀk°÷ÝĎĂsĀ°ÇĀ 'ÎĕsÁWsòãĀ6¬sĀ94ĀaF»»÷ĀÎÇĀìsĀìòssĀ÷°ks÷ĀĂÎĀíÝĎĂĀ February: Ethiopian Prime Minister Desalegn resigns –ÎòìĀ£ÎÎkĀ–F°Ă¬Ās˜ÎòĂ÷ĀĂÎĀòsFa¬ĀFÇĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀìFĂĀ amid anti-government protests. He is succeeded in preserves those rights, while simultaneously re- April by Abiy Ahmed Ali, leading to a temporary specting each other’s Nile water equities”. reduction in tensions with Egypt. Tripartite meet- ings on technical studies of continue though there is little, if any, sign of progress. Cairo blames the lack of any advance on deliberate obfuscation and prevarication by Ethiopia to buy time.

May: Following a nine party ministerial meeting Ethiopia is delegated to communicate feedback from the three countries on technical issues to the French consultancy BRLi Group. The email is never sent.

ÇĀ ìsĀ ÷ĎÁÁsòĀ FĀ 'FĂ°ÎÇF»Ā ÇksÝsÇksÇĂĀ 4a°sÇĂ°›aĀ 2s- search Group (NISRG) is formed comprising 15 experts from the three countries. It is mandated to formulate tech- Ç°aF»ĀÁÎkF»°Ă°s÷Ā–ÎòĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀ2ãĀĀ

The research group establishes four principles as basic parameters for an agreement on the dam. They include: adopting an adaptive and coopera- Ă°ĕsĀFÝÝòÎFa¬ĀĂÎĀìsĀ›»»°Ç£ĀFÇkĀÎÝsòFĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀ2ûĀ close coordination between the operation of GERD and the Aswan High Dam; agreed mechanisms for both dams to adapt to changes in the hydrological 2020 conditions of the Blue Nile and to share the burden of future droughts, and an agreed minimum level January: delegations from Ethiopia, Egypt and Su- of water to be released from GERD to ensure the dan meet three times in Washington. Ethiopia pulls Aswan High Dam remains at sustainable levels- - ÎĎĂĀΖĀìsĀ›ÇF»ĀÁssĂ°Ç£Āiė¬sòsĀFĀksF»ĀėF÷ĀĂÎĀWsĀ once the water level at the GERD reaches a level signed, in late February, calling for more time for that enables it to generate hydropower. internal consultations. After holding bilateral talks ė°Ă¬Ā£ěÝĂĀFÇkĀ4ĎkFÇiĀìsĀ94Āòs»sF÷s÷ĀFĀ÷ĂFĂsÁsÇĂĀ

74 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships saying it believed an agreement had been reached. peace and security. Sudan declines to formally consent to the text, leav- ing Egypt as the only country to initial the deal. ċċĀ"ĎÇshĀì°ÎÝ°FĀòs÷ÝÎÇk÷Ā°ÇĀFĀ»sĂĂsòĀĂÎĀìsĀ9'4 iĀ which avoids mentioning earlier announcement of &Fòa¬hĀ 4ĎkFÇĀ òs£°÷Ăsò÷Ā FÇĀ Ιa°F»Ā ÎW·saĂ°ÎÇĀ ĂÎĀ FĀ ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀkFÁĀė°Ă¬ÎĎĂĀFÇĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀFÇkĀaò°Ă°a°ğs÷Ā resolution proposed by Egypt to the Arab League Egypt for building the Aswan High Dam 50 years supporting both Egypt and Sudan in the dispute on ago. the grounds it was issued without consultation with Khartoum. The resolution passes without Sudan’s 27 June: After mediation from South African Presi- signature. ksÇĂĀ ěò°»Ā2FÁFݬÎ÷FĀa¬F°òĀΖĀìsĀ–ò°aFÇĀ9Ç°ÎÇĀ à9áiĀ»sFksò÷ĀΖĀ£ěÝĂiĀì°ÎÝ°FĀFÇkĀ4ĎkFÇĀ÷ÝsF¹ĀÎÇĀ 1 April: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed an- a call and agree to resume talks. Sudan and Egypt ÇÎĎÇas÷ĀìFĂĀ¬°÷ĀaÎĎÇĂòěĀė°»»Ā÷ĂFòĂĀ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀ2Ā ÷FěĀ ì°ÎÝ°FĀ F£òsskĀ ĂÎĀ ¬Î»k°Ç£Ā ΘĀ ÎÇĀ ›»»°Ç£Ā ìsĀ reservoir during the coming rainy season. He puts reservoir as negotiations continued, Ethiopia makes huge emphasis on the dam as a “symbol of our no mention of a delay. ÷Îĕsòs°£ÇĂěĀFÇkĀĎÇ°ĂěîãĀì°ÎÝ°FÇĀΙa°F»÷Ā÷FěĀaÎÇ- ÷ĂòĎaĂ°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀkFÁĀ°÷Āüċã ĀÝsòĀasÇĂĀaÎÁÝ»sĂsã Āíì°ÎÝ°FĀ°÷Ā÷a¬skĎ»skĀĂÎĀWs£°ÇĀ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀ2Ā within the next two weeks, during which the re- ĆĀÝò°»hĀ6¬sĀs»saĂò°a°ĂěĀ£ò°k÷ĀΖĀ£ěÝĂĀFÇkĀ4ĎkFÇĀ maining construction work will continue,” Addis FòsĀΙa°F»»ěĀaÎÇÇsaĂskiĀė°Ă¬ĀFÇĀ°Ç°Ă°F»ĀaFÝFa°ĂěĀΖĀ Ababa says in a statement. þġĀÁs£FėFĂĂ÷ãĀ6¬sĀsęĂsÇ÷°ÎÇĀΖĀìsĀ£ò°kĀĂÎĀ4ĎkFÇð÷Ā ÇÎòìsòÇĀòs£°ÎÇ÷Ā°÷ĀaÎÁÝ»sĂskĀF÷ĀÝFòĂĀΖĀs˜ÎòĂ÷ĀĂÎĀ ĆĀ"Ď»ěhĀ6ò°»FĂsòF»ĀĂF»¹÷Āòs÷ĎÁsĀĕ°FĀĕ°ksÎaÎǖsòsÇasĀ expand the power supply to Khartoum. ĎÇksòĀìsĀ9ð÷ĀFĎ÷Ý°as÷ãĀ£ěÝĂð÷Ā&°Ç°÷ĂsòĀΖĀòò°£F- tion Mohamed Abdel-Atti says talks will continue ÕġĀÝò°»hĀì°ÎÝ°FĀΘsò÷ĀFĀÝFòĂ°F»ĀF£òssÁsÇĂĀĂÎĀWÎìĀ °ÇĀìsĀFĂĂsÇkFÇasĀΖĀÕÕĀÎW÷sòĕsò÷Ā–òÎÁĀìsĀ9iĀ9Ç°Ă- £ěÝĂĀFÇkĀ4ĎkFÇĀìFĂĀėÎĎ»kĀÎÇ»ěĀaÎĕsòĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ skĀ4ĂFĂs÷iĀ9Ā ÎÁÁ°÷÷°ÎÇiĀFÇkĀ»s£F»ĀFÇkĀĂsa¬Ç°aF»Ā ÷ĂF£sĀΖĀìsĀ2Ā›»»°Ç£Āė¬°a¬ĀWÎìĀaÎĎÇĂò°s÷Āòs- experts. ject. No consensus is reached “at the technical and le- ÕċĀÝò°»hĀì°ÎÝ°FĀFÇÇÎĎÇas÷Ā°ĂĀė°»»Ā÷ĂFòĂĀ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀ gal levels he says. The main point of contention is reservoir in the wet season at end of June-July or ›»»°Ç£ĀìsĀòs÷sòĕΰòĀkĎò°Ç£ĀkòÎĎ£¬ĂĀFÇkĀÝòλÎÇ£skĀ September, in the absence of any agreement. drought.

President Al-Sisi and Sudanese Prime Minister In a statement, Sudan’s irrigation ministry says any Abdalla Hamdok send letters to Ethiopia’s premier agreement should have a binding nature and in- Abiy Ahmed rejecting his proposal for a transitional clude a comprehensive mechanism for resolving F£òssÁsÇĂĀÎÇĀìsĀ°Ç°Ă°F»Ā›»»°Ç£ĀΖĀ2Ā°ÇĀÁ°k¯"Ď»ěã future disputes.

ÕÕĀ&FěhĀĀ£ěÝĂĀ÷ĎWÁ°Ă÷ĀFĀÕü¯ÝF£sĀ»sĂĂsòĀĂÎĀìsĀ9Ç°ĂskĀ 'FĂ°ÎÇ÷Ā4saĎò°ĂěĀ ÎĎÇa°»Āà9'4 áĀÝòÎĂs÷Ă°Ç£Āì°Î- pia’s actions and demanding that it halt construc- tion until an agreement is reached.

ՐĀ&FěhĀkk°÷ĀWFWFĀ÷sÇk÷ĀFĀ»sĂĂsòĀĂÎĀìsĀ9'4 Ā saying Ethiopia has no legal obligation to seek £ěÝĂð÷Ā FÝÝòÎĕF»Ā ĂÎĀ ›»»Ā 2Ā FÇkĀ W»FÁs÷Ā F°òÎĀ for the deadlock in talks.

ÕÊĀ"ĎÇshĀW°ěĀ¬ÁskĀ»°ĀFÇÇÎĎÇas÷ĀìsĀkFÁĀė°»»Ā aÎÁÁsÇasĀ›»»°Ç£ĀĎÇ°»FĂsòF»»ěĀ°ÇĀ"Ď»ěĀė°Ă¬ĀÎòĀė°Ă¬ÎĎĂĀ FÇĀF£òssÁsÇĂãĀÎĎò÷Ā»FĂsòiĀ£ěÝĂĀ÷ss¹÷Ā9'Ā4saĎò°ĂěĀ Council intervention describing that situation as “an imminent threat to international peace and security.”

6¬sĀaÎÁs÷ĀĎÇksòĀòĂ°a»sĀƜĀΖĀìsĀ9'Ā ¬FòĂsòĀė¬°a¬Ā entitles member states to alert the Security Council of any situation that might lead to international *Source: Al-Ahram Weekly and Ahram Online friction, or that is likely to endanger international

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 75 Full Text of the "Declaration of Principles" Between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on the GERD Project, March 2015

Preamble • The Three Countries shall take all appropriate ÁsF÷Ďòs÷Ā ĂÎĀ ÝòsĕsÇĂĀ ìsĀ aFĎ÷°Ç£Ā ΖĀ ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ Mindful of the rising demand of the Arab Repub- ¬FòÁĀ°ÇĀĎĂ°»°ğ°Ç£ĀìsĀ »Ďsÿ&F°ÇĀ'°»sã lic of Egypt, the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Republic of Sudan on their trans • @¬sòsĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀ¬FòÁĀÇsĕsòìs»s÷÷Ā°÷ĀaFĎ÷skĀĂÎĀ WÎĎÇkFòěĀ ėFĂsòĀ òs÷ÎĎòasiĀ FÇkĀ aΣǰğFÇĂĀ ΖĀ ìsĀ one of the countries, the state whose use causes ÷°£Ç°›aFÇasĀΖĀìsĀ2°ĕsòĀ'°»sĀF÷ĀìsĀ÷ÎĎòasĀΖĀ»°ĕs- such harm shall, in the absence of agreement to »°¬ÎÎkĀFÇkĀìsĀ÷°£Ç°›aFÇĂĀòs÷ÎĎòasĀĂÎĀìsĀksĕs»ÎÝ- such use, take all appropriate measures in con- ment of the people of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, ÷Ď»ĂFĂ°ÎÇ÷Āė°Ă¬ĀìsĀF˜saĂskĀ÷ĂFĂsĀĂÎĀs»°Á°ÇFĂsĀÎòĀ the three countries have committed to the following mitigate such harm and, where appropriate, to principles on the GERD: discuss the question of compensation.

I – Principles of Cooperation IV – Principle of Equitable and Reasonable Utilization • To cooperate based on common understanding, ÁĎĂĎF»ĀWsÇs›ĂiĀ£ÎÎkĀ–F°Ă¬iĀė°Ç¯ė°ÇĀFÇkĀÝò°Ça°Ý»s÷Ā • 6¬sĀ6¬òssĀ ÎĎÇĂò°s÷Ā÷¬F»»ĀĎĂ°»°ğsĀìs°òĀ÷¬FòskĀėF- of international law. ter resources in their respective territories in an equitable and reasonable manner. • To cooperate in understanding upstream and downstream water needs in its various aspects. • In ensuring their equitable and reasonable utili- ğFĂ°ÎÇiĀìsĀ6¬òssĀ ÎĎÇĂò°s÷Āė°»»ĀĂF¹sĀ°ÇĂÎĀFaaÎĎÇĂĀ II – Principle of Development, Regional Integration all the relevant guiding factors listed below, but and Sustainability not limited to the following outlined:

• The Purpose of GERD is for power generation, to a. Geographic, hydrograpic, hydrological, climatic, contribute to economic development, promotion ecological and other factors of a natural character; of trans boundary cooperation and regional in- tegration through generation of sustainable and b. The social and economic needs of the Basin States reliable clean energy supply. concerned;

)))e0RINCIPLE.OTTO#AUSE3IGNIÃCANT(ARM c. The population dependent on the water resources

76 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships in each Basin State; • Priority will be given to downstream countries to purchase power generated from GERD. d. 6¬sĀs˜saĂ÷ĀΖĀìsĀĎ÷sĀÎòĀĎ÷s÷ĀΖĀìsĀėFĂsòĀòs÷ÎĎòas÷Ā in one Basin State on other Basin States; VII – Principle of Exchange of Information and Data e. Existing and potential uses of the water resources; Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan shall provide data and information needed for the conduct of the TNC joint f. Conservation, protection, development and econ- studies in good faith and in a timely manner. omy of use of the water resources and the costs of ÁsF÷Ďòs÷ĀĂF¹sÇĀĂÎĀìFĂĀs˜saĂû VIII – Principle of Dam Safety g. The availability of alternatives, of comparable val- • 6¬sĀ6¬òssĀ ÎĎÇĂò°s÷ĀFÝÝòsa°FĂsĀìsĀs˜ÎòĂ÷ĀĎÇksò- ue, to a particular planned or existing use; taken thus far by Ethiopia in implementing the IPoE recommendations pertinent to the GERD h. The contribution of each Basin State to the waters safety. of the Nile River system; • Ethiopia shall in good faith continue the full im- i. The extent and proportion of the drainage area in plementation of the Dam safety recommendations the territory of each Basin State. as per the IPoE report.

V – Principle to cooperate on the First Filling and IX – Principle of Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity Operation of the Dam The Three Countries shall cooperate on the basis of • To implement the recommendations of the Inter- ÷Îĕsòs°£ÇĀsçĎF»°ĂěiĀĂsòò°ĂÎò°F»Ā°ÇĂs£ò°ĂěiĀÁĎĂĎF»ĀWsÇs›ĂĀ ÇFĂ°ÎÇF»Ā0FÇs»ĀΖĀęÝsòĂ÷Āà0ÎáiĀòs÷ÝsaĂĀìsĀ›ÇF»Ā FÇkĀ£ÎÎkĀ–F°Ă¬Ā°ÇĀÎòksòĀĂÎĀFĂĂF°ÇĀÎÝĂ°ÁF»ĀĎĂ°»°ğFĂ°ÎÇĀ outcomes of the Technical National Committee and adequate protection of the River. (TNC) Final Report on the joint studies recom- mended in the IPOE Final Report throughout the X – Principle of Peaceful Settlement of Disputes k°˜sòsÇĂĀݬF÷s÷ĀΖĀìsĀÝòηsaĂã • The Three Countries will settle disputes, arising • The Three Countries, in the spirit of cooperation, out of the interpretation or implementation of ė°»»ĀĎĂ°»°ğsĀìsĀ›ÇF»ĀÎĎĂaÎÁs÷ĀΖĀìsĀ·Î°ÇĂĀ÷ĂĎk°s÷iĀ this agreement, amicably through consultation or to be conducted as per the recommendations of negotiation in accordance with the principle of the IPoE Report and agreed upon by the TNC, to:- good faith. If the Parties are unable to resolve the dispute through consultation or negotiation, they FãĀ£òssĀÎÇĀ£Ď°ks»°Çs÷ĀFÇkĀòĎ»s÷ĀÎÇĀìsĀ›ò÷ĂĀ›»»°Ç£ĀΖĀ may jointly request for conciliation, mediation or 2Āė¬°a¬Ā÷¬F»»ĀaÎĕsòĀF»»Āk°˜sòsÇĂĀ÷asÇFò°Î÷iĀ°ÇĀ refer the matter for the consideration of the Heads parallel with the construction of GERD. of State/Heads of Government. b. Agree on guidelines and rules for the annual oper- This agreement on Declaration of Principles is ation of GERD, which the owner of the dam may ÷°£ÇskĀ°ÇĀ#¬FòĂÎĎÁiĀ4ĎkFÇiĀÎÇĀìsĀċĆĀΖĀ&Fòa¬iĀ adjust from time to time. 2015, by the Arab Republic of Egypt, The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Republic c. Inform the downstream countries of any unfore- of Sudan. seen or urgent circumstances requiring adjustments in the operation of GERD. For the Arab Republic of Egypt, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi • To sustain cooperation and coordination on the annual operation of GERD with downstream For the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, reservoirs, the three countries, through the line Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, and ministries responsible for water, shall set up an ap- propriate coordination mechanism among them. For the Republic of the Sudan, President Omer Hassan Elbashir • The time line for conducting the above mentioned process shall be 15 months from the inception of the two studies recommended by the IPoE.

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The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 77 Letter of the Ministry of Foreign ˜F°ò÷ĀΖĀ£ěÝĂĀĂÎĀìs Security Council June 2020

78 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 79 80 | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Risks, Fallacies and Potential Partnerships The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 81 All rights reserved for the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies © 2020