The Rebuilding of Greater Russia This book describes the strategies used by President Putin from 2000 onwards to recreate ‘Greater Russia’, that is, a Russia that controls most of the territory of the former Soviet Union. It shows the subtlety of the means of control, often through creating economic dependencies in the ‘near abroad’, including exploit- ing energy dependency, through prolonging other political and military depen- dencies, and sometimes through traditional ‘power politics’. It argues that after seven years in power the results of this strategy are beginning to show. It pro- vides comprehensive coverage of Russia’s relations to the former Soviet territo- ries of the CIS countries, including Ukraine and Putin’s role in the events surrounding the ‘Orange Revolution’, Belarus and the attempts to form a union, the Caucasus and Russia’s role in the various conflicts, Moldova, including the Transdniester conflict, and Central Asia. This is an important subject, for inter- national relations scholars generally, not just Russian studies experts. Bertil Nygren is Associate Professor of Political Science at the Swedish National Defence College and the Department of Political Science, Stockholm University. His research interests focus on politics in Russia and the CIS coun- tries, security, strategy and international relations. His publications include Russia as a Great Power, Dimensions of Security Under Putin (edited by Jakob Hedenskog, Vilhelm Konnander, Bertil Nygren, Ingmar Oldberg and Christer Pursiainen), Routledge, 2005. Routledge contemporary Russia and Eastern Europe series 1 Liberal Nationalism in Central 6 Building Democracy and Civil Europe Society East of the Elbe Stefan Auer Essays in honour of Edmund Mokrzycki 2 Civil–Military Relations in Edited by Sven Eliaeson Russia and Eastern Europe David J. Betz 7 The Telengits of Southern Siberia 3 The Extreme Nationalist Threat Landscape, religion and in Russia knowledge in motion The growing influence of Western Agnieszka Halemba rightist ideas Thomas Parland 8 The Development of Capitalism in Russia 4 Economic Development in Simon Clarke Tatarstan Global markets and a Russian 9 Russian Television Today region Primetime drama and comedy Leo McCann David MacFadyen 5 Adapting to Russia’s New 10 The Rebuilding of Greater Labour Market Russia Gender and employment strategy Putin’s foreign policy towards the Edited by Sarah Ashwin CIS countries Bertil Nygren The Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putin’s foreign policy towards the CIS countries Bertil Nygren First published 2008 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016 This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2007. “To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.” Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2008 Bertil Nygren All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested ISBN 0-203-93990-5 Master e-book ISBN ISBN10: 0-415-43600-1 (hbk) ISBN10: 0-203-93990-5 (ebk) ISBN13: 978-0-415-43600-7 (hbk) ISBN13: 978-0-203-93990-1 (ebk) To Olga Contents Acknowledgements xi List of abbreviations xii Map xiv PART I The Russian regional security complex and Russian foreign policy towards the CIS countries 1 1 Introduction 3 1.1 The general idea and purpose of the book 3 1.2 Regional security complexes – concepts and application 9 1.3 The birth of Greater Russia – history 12 1.4 Russia and its place in the world at the turn of the millennium – the greater picture 17 1.5 Putin and his strategic starting point in 2000 19 1.6 The structure of the book 22 2 The regional organizations of the Russia-led regional security complex 24 2.1 Russia and the CIS and other regional organizations – introduction 24 2.2 The CIS as a means of defence integration – the Collective Security Treaty 31 2.3 The CIS as a means of economic integration – the Single Economic Space 37 2.4 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other regional organizations 41 2.5 CIS and other regional organizations – summary and conclusions 44 viii Contents PART II Russia and the European security sub-complex – relations with Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova 47 3 Russia and Ukraine 49 3.1 Introduction and general developments 49 3.2 The NATO enlargement issue in Ukraine 54 3.3 The Russia–Ukraine border issue 56 3.4 Trade and economic cooperation 58 3.5 Energy issues 59 3.6 Ukraine elections – the ‘orange revolution’ 62 3.7 Russia–Ukraine relations – summary and conclusions 64 4 Russia and Belarus 66 4.1 Introduction and general developments 66 4.2 The Russia–Belarus Union idea under Yeltsin 67 4.3 The changing Union idea under Putin 70 4.4 Military and defence cooperation 74 4.5 Other political issues in Russia–Belarus relations 75 4.6 Energy issues 76 4.7 Belarus presidential elections in spring 2006 79 4.8 Russia–Belarus relations – summary and conclusions 80 5 Russia and Moldova 82 5.1 Introduction and general developments 82 5.2 Russia and the Transdniester conflict 86 5.3 Politico-cultural issues – ‘language politics’ 94 5.4 Politico-economic issues – trade and energy issues 96 5.5 Moldova, NATO and the EU 99 5.6 Russia–Moldova relations – summary and conclusions 99 PART III Russia and the Caucasus security sub-complex – relations with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia and the regional conflicts 101 6 The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict 105 7 Russia and Azerbaijan 110 Contents ix 8 Russia and Armenia 114 9 Russia and Georgia 119 9.1 Introduction and general developments 119 9.2 Russia and the Chechen problem in Georgia 125 9.3 Russian military bases in Georgia 131 9.4 Russia and the Abkhazia conflict 133 9.5 Russia and the South Ossetia conflict 144 9.6 Energy issues – gas and electricity 150 9.7 Russia and Georgia – summary and conclusions 152 10 The Caucasus, the EU, NATO and the United States 154 10.1 Caucasus, NATO and the United States 154 10.2 Caucasus and the EU 158 PART IV Russia and the Asian regional sub-complex – relations with Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan 161 11 The Caspian Sea basin – borders, oil and gas 167 12 Russia and Kazakhstan 175 12.1 Introduction and general developments 175 12.2 Defence and security 176 12.3 Economic cooperation, trade and energy issues 177 12.4 Other bilateral problems 179 13 Russia and Kyrgyztan 182 13.1 Introduction and general developments 182 13.2 Defence and security 183 13.3 Economic cooperation, trade and energy issues 184 13.4 Other bilateral problems 185 14 Russia and Tajikistan 188 14.1 Introduction and general developments 188 14.2 Defence and security 189 14.3 Economic cooperation, trade and energy issues 193 14.4 Other bilateral problems 194 x Contents 15 Russia and Uzbekistan 196 15.1 Introduction and general developments 196 15.2 Defence and security 197 15.3 Economic cooperation, trade and energy issues 200 16 Russia and Turkmenistan 202 16.1 Introduction and general developments 202 16.2 Politico-cultural problems 203 16.3 Economic cooperation, trade and energy issues 204 17 Central Asia, China, NATO and the United States 207 PART V Russia as a regional great power – analysis of the past and future of Putin’s attempt to rebuild Greater Russia – objectives, strategies, policies, instruments and prospects for success 217 18 Conclusions 219 18.1 Putin – country by country, summary of developments in Russia’s relations with CIS organizations and with individual CIS countries 219 18.2 Putin – regional security complex by complex, developments in Russian relations with the three regional security complexes – the larger picture 225 18.3 The politico-military, politico-economic and politico-cultural arenas and the instruments applied – banks or tanks? 231 18.4 Russia’s relations to the Russia-led security complex – after Putin 248 Notes 251 References 273 Index 315 Acknowledgements This book has been in the making since Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin became president of the Russian Federation on 1 January 2000 and is the result of many work hours since then. As the ultimate source of inspiration for the book, I am grateful to President Vladimir Putin for his many invigorating speeches. I am also grateful to Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty for their frequent quoting of President Putin and the other presidents of the CIS countries, without which the work would have been immensely more tiresome, and to the many analysts at Eurasia Insight, Moscow Times and RFE/RL who have inspired me. I am also grateful to my two organizational homesteads which have made the research for this book possible and to the inspiration found among colleagues there, the Department of Political Science at Stockholm University and the Institute of Security and Strategy at the Swedish National Defence College. I am particu- larly grateful to Professor Bo Huldt who gave me the initial push and resources to write about Russia again after too many years of absence from research, and to Professor Jan Hallenberg who has generously provided me with time and resources to remain on that research track.