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Blazing a new trail 2 BlazeMarketing punchline, substantial business optimism or nice way to say we have to escape the doom of our industry? • Copyaof the newNATSO connect punchline • Trail into the forest picture • Sign trailwith Icon pile of dollars • Or Why should we like to leave our current trail? • emergency exit sign In which direction should we blaze the new trail?
What skills do we need to blaze that new trail?
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We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.
– Bill Gates
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4 1896
The livery stable was a necessary institution of every American town. With the advent of the automobile after 1910, the livery stables quietly disappeared.
2 story livery stable with boarding house on top. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._W._Miller_Livery_Stable
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5 1896
Berta Benz The Benz Patent-Motorwagen Number 3 of 1886, used by Bertha Benz for the highly publicized first long-distance road trip, 106 km (66 mi)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertha_Benz#The_Patent_Motor_Car
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The first gas station 6 in history
Since then the City-Pharmacy in Wiesloch is said to be the first gas station, selling her 1.5 gallons of Legroin, a light gasoline used to remove stains at that time.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wiesloch_Stadtapotheke_Erste_Tankstelle_20100620.jpg
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Exponential growth 7 Benefiting from disruption
1908 800,000 p.a.
1906 3,500 p.a. Ford Model T 1903 600 p.a.
Ford Model N
Ford Model A
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8 1898
A Winston semi- truck carrying a new car. This was likely the first semi-truck and car hauler in the U.S.
http://www.delphos-ohio.com/Holdgreve/trucks_buses_campers.htm
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9 1922 The world’s first automotive diesel with prechamber
The world’s first automotive diesel with prechamber
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/scr/cache/6668561v1tv3/D86801.jpg
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10 1924 the world’s first series-built diesel truck Benz 5 K 3 truck
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/scr/cache/7408528v1tv3/D173124.jpg
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11 1952
https://jubitz.com/content/uploads/2016/05/final.jpg
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12 1956
https://www.google.com/maps/place/TA/
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Learnings from 1913 13 How disruption formed our industry
• Disruption can happen to established businesses easily within 10 years from prosperity to break-even and another 10-years to fully diminished • Although disruption needs many years, adaptation to the development is very difficult to achieve, because required capabilities and knowledge changes fundamentally • Changes are non-predictable if you do not have a wider view • Inflection points are the last signs of warning before the exponential curve of developments starts its ascent
• Start early enough C.W.Miller’s six story livery stable with lots of amenities was • Take extremely serious action profitable 1896 and went out of business 1913. • Be prepared to risk your traditional business anyway Soon it was used to park motorcars. It was swept away by the exponential growth of a new technology and the changes of customer habits.
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Exponential growth 14 How to detect early?
At its beginning it is difficult to detect if it is a linear or exponential development
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Datenreihe 1 Datenreihe 2 Linear (Datenreihe 1)
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Exponential growth 15 How to detect early?
After the inflection point the development accelerates fast with very limited time to react for established businesses
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Datenreihe 1 Datenreihe 2 Linear (Datenreihe 1)
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Indicators of inflection points 16 Learnings from the past
Consumer benefits Start-up investments
Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption
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Indicators of inflection points 17 How does it apply today?
Consumer benefits Start-up investments
Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption
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Norway - Worlds leading EV country 18 Norway
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Norway - Worlds leading EV country 19 Norway
• 2019 >60% of new registered cars have a plug • In 2025 all new cars, urban buses and light commercial vehicles must be zero emission vehicles • By 2030, all new heavy- duty vans, 75% of new long- distance buses, and 50% of new trucks must be zero emission vehicles as well • The decarbonization program includes ships, power plants, and industry
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/Registrations_EVs_Norway_2004_2013.png
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Tesla – price parity 20 Without subsidies
https://www.motor1.com/reviews/378302/bmw-3-series-tesla-model-3-comparison/
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Growing on a low basis 21 USA
Awaiting 2nd Gen Models
Model 3 effect
http://www.ev-volumes.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/US-L-10-2019.png
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DHL – street scooter 22 TCO already better on last mile stop-and-go delivery
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f7/2016-12-10-Post_Streetscooter-9409.jpg/1599px-2016-12-10- Post_Streetscooter-9409.jpg
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Busses? 23 Stop-and-go advantage of regen-braking
Better TCO on limited distances
https://www.schiphol.nl/en/schiphol-group/page/europes-largest-fleet-of-fully-electric-buses/
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Trucks? 24 Announced limited productions 2020 / 2021
Pilot-series production starts end of 2020
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/Tesla_Semi_5.jpg https://mbs.mercedes-benz.com/de/special-trucks/messen-events/ifat-muenchen/live-vom-muenchner-messegelaende.html 24
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Inflection points 25 Consumer Learnings from the past benefits1920: Less dirt, smother and faster ride, longer distances, easy to handle Consumer benefits Start-up investments
Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption
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Consumer benefits 26 Old world plus new world
• Instant torque • Space inside • Acceleration • Low noise & vibration • No fumes • Easy to drive / driver assistance
www.tesla.com
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Inflection points 27 Learnings from the past
Investments: Ford and the Detroit motor company and many others invested with risk and virtually no return in the first years to build Consumer benefits Start-up investments mass production and bringing the costs down
Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption
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ID.3 – Cost efficient mass production 28 TCO on par or better than all IC cars of VW
https://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/investorrelation/publications/presentations/2018/07_july/2018-07- 02_Volkswagen_Group_Investor_Conference_Presentation_Mr_De_Bock.pdf
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ID.3 – The bet 29 Volkswagen takes the plunge
3 production plants will be fully converted to electric vehicles: Zwickau, Emden (Germany) and Anting (China) A car every 1,5 minutes / 330k per year 1 plant 1 model (~ Tesla 2019).
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Inflection points 30 Learnings from the past
Societal change: It became modern and a “must have”, car owners felt to be part of a Consumer benefits Start-up investments progressive, successful group
Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption
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Societal changes 31 Digitalization rules the development
• Fully connected • Community & Care • Integrated • Fun • Updates online • Natural for digital natives
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ipad_On_Wheels_(52415528).jpeg https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-new-navigation-rollout-mature-beta/
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Most influential motorshows 32 Globally
2000 2010 2020
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Societal changes 33 Digitalization rules
https://techmymoney.com/2015/05/01/motor-trend-tesla-model-s-p85d-vs-the-dodge-charger-hellcat/
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Inflection points 34 Learnings from the past
Consumer benefits Start-up investments
Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption
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Mobility electrification 35 Heading for its point of inflection
The change is inescapable The impact will be sweeping
“Are electric vehicles here to stay? All of the data “We are moving towards […] the second inflection now says, yes. It is not a question of if, it is a point of mobility. The first inflection point was when question of when, but the when is happening now we moved from horses to cars. [In the same way] the as well” new mobility will change society.” Deepesh Nayanar, global head of e-mobility for Gilbarco-Veeder Jacob Schram, former CEO of Statoil, Norway, now BCG Root on NATSO.com
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How far does electrification matter to truckstops? 36 The answer differs by location
https://www.natso.com/topics/chargepoint-and-natso-launch-collaborative-to-significantly-expand-ev-charging-along-nation-s- highways-and-in-rural-communities 36
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How far does electrification matter to truckstops? 37 The answer differs by location
Electric → passenger cars! Hydrogen H2 ? LNG? → PTL?
https://www.volvotrucks.de/de-de/trucks/volvo-fh/volvo-fh-lng.html
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How to choose a location changes dramatically 38 Screen instead of signage
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General Motors from model year 2017 onwards How to choose a location changes dramatically 39 (Chevrolet, Buick, Holden, Buick, Cadillac, GMC) from physical to virtual
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40 Fiat ChryslerHow 2019 to choose a location changes dramatically from physical to virtual (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Alfa Romeo, Lancia, Maserati, Jeep and RAM)
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• routing How to choose a location changes dramatically 41 • social feedback from physical to virtual • personalized deals • frictionless ordering & payment • loyalty rewards
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Brick & mortar retail in transition 42 Disruptive changes caused by the digital world
News Jan 2020 • Macy’s will layoff 2,000 employees • Close 125 stores • Close they current headquarters and split it between NYC and Atlanta
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Retail molt 43 General shift of customer expectations and demand
Retail Molt
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5 Factors for continued success 44 with focus on non-fuel retail
Retail Theatre
New reasons to stop
Customer Segmentation
Operational Basics
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5 Factors for continued success 45 with focus on non-fuel retail
Retail Theatre
New reasons to stop
Customer Segmentation
Operational Basics
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Instagrammable experience • Exceptional personal experience I like to share • All senses • Pictures • Almost like Disney Land • Role model: Starbucks roastery
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5 Factors for continued success 47 with focus on non-fuel retail
The major change in customer habits, which is going on with Retail Theatre gas and diesel already, is that the reason to stop changes. We call it from “fuels first to New reasons to stop food first”. So there is a substantial move to fuel where you stop for other reasons than fueling. Customer Segmentation
Operational Basics
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5 Factors for continued success 49 with focus on non-fuel retail
Retail Theatre
New reasons to stop
Customer Segmentation
Operational Basics
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Examples of different missions and need states: • Class 8 driver with ELD in “driving mode” • Commuting customer • Charger • Long distance travellers • Trucker in Pause mode
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5 Factors for continued success 51 with focus on non-fuel retail
Retail Theatre
New reasons to stop
Customer Segmentation
Operational Basics
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• Clean restrooms • Light, secure, clean, good smell, not too noisy • Ingress and egress, accessible, easy to find way • Well stocked, merchandises, price-tagged, clutter-free • Friendly and knowledgeable staff • No long queues • Different payment methods
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• Light, secure, clean, good smell, not too noisy • Ingress and egress, accessible, easy to find way • Well stocked, merchandises, price-tagged, clutter-free • Friendly and knowledgeable staff • No long queues • Different payment methods
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5 Factors for continued success 54 with focus on non-fuel retail
Retail Theatre
New reasons to stop
Customer Segmentation
Operational Basics
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Food service in transition 55 Disruptive changes caused by the digital world
https://longitudedesign.com/what-is-a-ghost-kitchen/
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Working on two timestreams in parallel 56 Change becomes part of the business
Plan & Plan & Plan & Plan & Plan & Execution Execution Execution Execution Execution 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Test / Review / Change
3 Years +2 Years Strategy
External support, training & cooperation
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Blazing a new trail 57 BlazeMarketing punchline, substantial business optimism or nice way to say we have to escape the doom of our industry? • Copyaof the newNATSO connect punchline • Trail into the forest picture • Sign trailwith Icon pile of dollars • Or Why should we like to leave our current trail? • emergency exit sign In which direction should we blaze the new trail?
What skills do we need to blaze that new trail?
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Blazing a new trail 59 BlazeMarketing punchline, substantial business optimism or nice way to say we have to escape the doom of our industry? • Copyaof the newNATSO connect punchline • Trail into the forest picture • Sign trailwith Icon pile of dollars • Or Why should we like to leave our current trail? • emergency exit sign In which direction should we blaze the new trail?
What skills do we need to blaze that new trail?
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Blazing a new trail 61 BlazeMarketing punchline, substantial business optimism or nice way to say we have to escape the doom of our industry? • Copyaof the newNATSO connect punchline • Trail into the forest picture • Sign trailwith Icon pile of dollars • Or Why should we like to leave our current trail? • emergency exit sign In which direction should we blaze the new trail?
What skills do we need to blaze that new trail?
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