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Blaze a New Trail

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Blaze a New Trail 13/02/2020 1 1 Blazing a new trail 2 BlazeMarketing punchline, substantial business optimism or nice way to say we have to escape the doom of our industry? • Copyaof the newNATSO connect punchline • Trail into the forest picture • Sign trailwith Icon pile of dollars • Or Why should we like to leave our current trail? • emergency exit sign In which direction should we blaze the new trail? What skills do we need to blaze that new trail? 2 1 13/02/2020 3 We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction. – Bill Gates 3 4 1896 The livery stable was a necessary institution of every American town. With the advent of the automobile after 1910, the livery stables quietly disappeared. 2 story livery stable with boarding house on top. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._W._Miller_Livery_Stable 4 2 13/02/2020 5 1896 Berta Benz The Benz Patent-Motorwagen Number 3 of 1886, used by Bertha Benz for the highly publicized first long-distance road trip, 106 km (66 mi) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertha_Benz#The_Patent_Motor_Car 5 The first gas station 6 in history Since then the City-Pharmacy in Wiesloch is said to be the first gas station, selling her 1.5 gallons of Legroin, a light gasoline used to remove stains at that time. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wiesloch_Stadtapotheke_Erste_Tankstelle_20100620.jpg 6 3 13/02/2020 Exponential growth 7 Benefiting from disruption 1908 800,000 p.a. 1906 3,500 p.a. Ford Model T 1903 600 p.a. Ford Model N Ford Model A 7 8 1898 A Winston semi- truck carrying a new car. This was likely the first semi-truck and car hauler in the U.S. http://www.delphos-ohio.com/Holdgreve/trucks_buses_campers.htm 8 4 13/02/2020 9 1922 The world’s first automotive diesel with prechamber The world’s first automotive diesel with prechamber https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/scr/cache/6668561v1tv3/D86801.jpg 9 10 1924 the world’s first series-built diesel truck Benz 5 K 3 truck https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/scr/cache/7408528v1tv3/D173124.jpg 10 5 13/02/2020 11 1952 https://jubitz.com/content/uploads/2016/05/final.jpg 11 12 1956 https://www.google.com/maps/place/TA/ 12 6 13/02/2020 Learnings from 1913 13 How disruption formed our industry • Disruption can happen to established businesses easily within 10 years from prosperity to break-even and another 10-years to fully diminished • Although disruption needs many years, adaptation to the development is very difficult to achieve, because required capabilities and knowledge changes fundamentally • Changes are non-predictable if you do not have a wider view • Inflection points are the last signs of warning before the exponential curve of developments starts its ascent • Start early enough C.W.Miller’s six story livery stable with lots of amenities was • Take extremely serious action profitable 1896 and went out of business 1913. • Be prepared to risk your traditional business anyway Soon it was used to park motorcars. It was swept away by the exponential growth of a new technology and the changes of customer habits. 13 Exponential growth 14 How to detect early? At its beginning it is difficult to detect if it is a linear or exponential development 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Datenreihe 1 Datenreihe 2 Linear (Datenreihe 1) 14 7 13/02/2020 Exponential growth 15 How to detect early? After the inflection point the development accelerates fast with very limited time to react for established businesses 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Datenreihe 1 Datenreihe 2 Linear (Datenreihe 1) 15 Indicators of inflection points 16 Learnings from the past Consumer benefits Start-up investments Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption 16 8 13/02/2020 Indicators of inflection points 17 How does it apply today? Consumer benefits Start-up investments Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption 17 Norway - Worlds leading EV country 18 Norway 18 9 13/02/2020 Norway - Worlds leading EV country 19 Norway • 2019 >60% of new registered cars have a plug • In 2025 all new cars, urban buses and light commercial vehicles must be zero emission vehicles • By 2030, all new heavy- duty vans, 75% of new long- distance buses, and 50% of new trucks must be zero emission vehicles as well • The decarbonization program includes ships, power plants, and industry https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/Registrations_EVs_Norway_2004_2013.png 19 Tesla – price parity 20 Without subsidies https://www.motor1.com/reviews/378302/bmw-3-series-tesla-model-3-comparison/ 20 10 13/02/2020 Growing on a low basis 21 USA Awaiting 2nd Gen Models Model 3 effect http://www.ev-volumes.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/US-L-10-2019.png 21 DHL – street scooter 22 TCO already better on last mile stop-and-go delivery https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f7/2016-12-10-Post_Streetscooter-9409.jpg/1599px-2016-12-10- Post_Streetscooter-9409.jpg 22 11 13/02/2020 Busses? 23 Stop-and-go advantage of regen-braking Better TCO on limited distances https://www.schiphol.nl/en/schiphol-group/page/europes-largest-fleet-of-fully-electric-buses/ 23 Trucks? 24 Announced limited productions 2020 / 2021 Pilot-series production starts end of 2020 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/Tesla_Semi_5.jpg https://mbs.mercedes-benz.com/de/special-trucks/messen-events/ifat-muenchen/live-vom-muenchner-messegelaende.html 24 12 13/02/2020 Inflection points 25 Consumer Learnings from the past benefits1920: Less dirt, smother and faster ride, longer distances, easy to handle Consumer benefits Start-up investments Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption 25 Consumer benefits 26 Old world plus new world • Instant torque • Space inside • Acceleration • Low noise & vibration • No fumes • Easy to drive / driver assistance www.tesla.com 26 13 13/02/2020 Inflection points 27 Learnings from the past Investments: Ford and the Detroit motor company and many others invested with risk and virtually no return in the first years to build Consumer benefits Start-up investments mass production and bringing the costs down Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption 27 ID.3 – Cost efficient mass production 28 TCO on par or better than all IC cars of VW https://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/investorrelation/publications/presentations/2018/07_july/2018-07- 02_Volkswagen_Group_Investor_Conference_Presentation_Mr_De_Bock.pdf 28 14 13/02/2020 ID.3 – The bet 29 Volkswagen takes the plunge 3 production plants will be fully converted to electric vehicles: Zwickau, Emden (Germany) and Anting (China) A car every 1,5 minutes / 330k per year 1 plant 1 model (~ Tesla 2019). 29 Inflection points 30 Learnings from the past Societal change: It became modern and a “must have”, car owners felt to be part of a Consumer benefits Start-up investments progressive, successful group Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption 30 15 13/02/2020 Societal changes 31 Digitalization rules the development • Fully connected • Community & Care • Integrated • Fun • Updates online • Natural for digital natives https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ipad_On_Wheels_(52415528).jpeg https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-new-navigation-rollout-mature-beta/ 31 Most influential motorshows 32 Globally 2000 2010 2020 32 16 13/02/2020 Societal changes 33 Digitalization rules https://techmymoney.com/2015/05/01/motor-trend-tesla-model-s-p85d-vs-the-dodge-charger-hellcat/ 33 Inflection points 34 Learnings from the past Consumer benefits Start-up investments Exponential Development TCO Total Cost of Ownership Societal changes Disruption 34 17 13/02/2020 Mobility electrification 35 Heading for its point of inflection The change is inescapable The impact will be sweeping “Are electric vehicles here to stay? All of the data “We are moving towards […] the second inflection now says, yes. It is not a question of if, it is a point of mobility. The first inflection point was when question of when, but the when is happening now we moved from horses to cars. [In the same way] the as well” new mobility will change society.” Deepesh Nayanar, global head of e-mobility for Gilbarco-Veeder Jacob Schram, former CEO of Statoil, Norway, now BCG Root on NATSO.com 35 How far does electrification matter to truckstops? 36 The answer differs by location https://www.natso.com/topics/chargepoint-and-natso-launch-collaborative-to-significantly-expand-ev-charging-along-nation-s- highways-and-in-rural-communities 36 18 13/02/2020 How far does electrification matter to truckstops? 37 The answer differs by location Electric → passenger cars! Hydrogen H2 ? LNG? → PTL? https://www.volvotrucks.de/de-de/trucks/volvo-fh/volvo-fh-lng.html 37 How to choose a location changes dramatically 38 Screen instead of signage 38 19 13/02/2020 General Motors from model year 2017 onwards How to choose a location changes dramatically 39 (Chevrolet, Buick, Holden, Buick, Cadillac, GMC) from physical to virtual 39 40 Fiat ChryslerHow 2019 to choose a location changes dramatically from physical to virtual (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Alfa Romeo, Lancia, Maserati, Jeep and RAM) 40 20 13/02/2020 • routing How to choose a location changes dramatically 41 • social
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