New homes for your area? Community fact pack for the town area and

Fact pack covers: North, Brighton Hill South, Brookvale and Kings Furlong, Buckskin, Chineham, Eastrop, Grove, and Beggarwood, , Norden, Popley East, Popley Fields, Popley West, , , Taylors Farm/ and Give us your views by Friday 14 January 2011

5719_1010 at www.basingstoke.gov.uk/go/newhomes Basingstoke town

 The population for Basingstoke Town including Chineham stood at 90,000 at the 2001 Census, the forecast population for 2010 is around 97,000  The number of new homes completed in the period 2006 to 2010 totalled 3,761 dwellings for Basingstoke Town including Chineham  Average household size in the borough fell from 2.64 persons to 2.45 persons during the period 1991 to 2001  As at August 2010, there are 6,189 households on the borough housing register and 84% of these households have some level of housing 'need' as identified by the council's points system  Between 80% and 90% of housing register applicants want to live in Basingstoke town

The following data profiles the social and economic characteristics of the town area of Basingstoke. It gives background information on a number of local socio-demographic indicators including recent population growth, age breakdown, recent housing development, recent household growth and data on employment levels, the housing register, and levels of deprivation.

This pack is one of a series covering the whole area, designed to provide an overall community profile to support the borough council’s consultation on ‘New Homes for Your Area – The Big Question’.

The Basingstoke town area includes the wards1 of: Basingstoke town wards Brighton Hill North Kempshott Brighton Hill South Norden Brookvale and Kings Furlong Popley East Buckskin Popley West Chineham Rooksdown Eastrop South Ham Grove Winklebury Hatch Warren and Beggarwood

1 And includes the areas of Sherfield Park/Taylor’s Farm and Popley Fields

1 of 11

Population, age profile and population growth

 The population of Basingstoke town stood at around 90,000 at the time of the 2001 Census.

Wards 2001: number of people 75 and 0-4 5 to 15 16 -24 25-44 45-64 65-74 Total aged over Brighton Hill North 399 820 634 1,979 1,011 148 132 5,123 Brighton Hill South 428 951 680 2,068 1,085 267 284 5,763 Brookvale and Kings Furlong 357 534 555 1,728 1,025 317 304 4,820 Buckskin 459 1,013 670 1,715 954 282 233 5,326 Chineham 553 1,072 656 2,925 1,438 205 154 7,003 155 427 246 756 850 181 179 2,794 Eastrop 268 515 478 1,628 839 259 283 4,270 Grove 295 815 622 1,745 1,524 484 329 5,814 Hatch Warren and Beggarwood 675 1325 773 3,483 1,367 122 57 7,802 Kempshott 331 933 663 1,728 2,496 694 396 7,241 Norden 576 1,236 921 2,565 1,668 643 557 8,166 Popley East 477 933 681 1,737 1,205 243 134 5,410 Popley West 283 549 414 1,168 926 239 171 3,750 Rooksdown 109 119 165 646 136 20 21 1,216 South Ham 437 916 765 2,204 1,579 890 658 7,449 Winklebury 445 1057 685 2,059 1,888 560 395 7,089 Total 2001 6,247 13,215 9,608 30,134 19,991 5,554 4,287 89,036

 Currently (as at 2010)2 the forecast population stands at 97,000 – a ward level age profile is shown in the table below.

Wards 2010: number of people 75 and 0 to 4 5 to 15 16 - 24 25 - 44 45 - 64 65 -74 Total aged over Brighton Hill North 392 778 709 1,705 1,245 233 1805,245 Brighton Hill South 388 795 676 1,654 1,177 324 2705,287 Brookvale and Kings Furlong 452 643 730 1,898 1,303 519 5976,144 Buckskin 613 966 994 2,118 1,436 459 3306,914 Chineham 673 1,162 911 2,767 2,202 474 364 8,551 Eastrop 354 549 804 1,932 1,084 441 4675,634 Grove 284 744 680 1,622 1,640 575 4656,008 Hatch Warren and Beggarwood 803 1,448 976 3,017 2,227 311 268 9,052 Kempshott 327 952 682 1,671 2,455 725 4387,252 Norden 605 1,210 1,113 2,669 1,814 651 607 8,673 Popley East 467 844 699 1,760 1,274 422 3165,787 Popley West 420 622 488 1,535 1,059 372 3864,879 Rooksdown 280 394 282 1,152 658 193 159 3,120 South Ham 452 973 847 2,130 2,012 819 1,0238,257 Winklebury 329 787 662 1,519 1,666 586 5216,070 Totals 2010 6,839 12,867 11,253 29,149 23,252 7,104 6,391 96,873

 The population is forecast to be just over 102,000 by 2016.

2 The source for 2010 and 2016 is County Council Small Area Population Forecasts (2009-based) http://www3.hants.gov.uk/planning/factsandfigures/population-statistics/small-area-pop-stats.htm

2 of 11

Wards 2016: number of people aged 0 to 4 5 to 15 16 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus Total Brighton Hill North 339 701 681 1,637 1,312 316 266 5,253 Brighton Hill South 329 705 623 1,523 1,194 378 297 5,050 Brookvale and Kings Furlong 422 684 714 1,822 1,375 541 756 6,313 Buckskin 579 1,046 883 2,065 1,475 478 384 6,909 Chineham 586 1,161 943 2,831 2,388 727 552 9,192 Eastrop 387 638 838 2,171 1,188 510 616 6,350 Grove 280 723 642 1,556 1,602 696 575 6,076 Hatch Warren and Beggarwood 619 1,385 944 2,722 2,266 457 380 8,773 Kempshott 287 860 650 1,519 2,247 981 587 7,131 Norden 630 1,263 1,044 2,777 2,017 675 634 9,037 Popley East 537 962 749 2,041 1,357 570 449 6,667 Popley West 615 1,030 611 2,201 1,506 539 596 7,096 Rooksdown 332 646 396 1,653 1,166 378 334 4,907 South Ham 431 871 805 1,974 2,059 753 1,060 7,954 Winklebury 305 696 609 1,365 1,617 664 614 5,866 Total 2016 6,678 13,371 11,132 29,857 24,769 8,663 8,100 102,574

 From 2001, and forecast from 2010 to 2016, there is a significant increase in the number of people aged 45 to 64, and people over the age of 65. This can be seen on the graph below.

35,000 Basingstoke town wards: 2001 population 2001, 2010, 2016 2010 Number of people in each age group 2016 30,134 29,149 29,857 30,000

24,769 25,000 23,252

19,991 20,000

15,000 13,215 12,867 13,371 Number of peopleNumber .. 11,253 11,132 9,608 10,000 8,663 8,100 7,104 6,839 6,247 6,678 6,391 5,554 5,000 4,287

0 0-4 5 to 15 16 -24 25-44 45-64 65-74 75 and over

3 of 11

Population changes and housing

The following sets out the main population trends which are relevant to consider.

Over the past decade, births within Basingstoke and Deane have increased from about 1,800 per annum to 2,100 in 2008/09, while deaths have remained relatively stable between 1,100 and 1,200 per annum. The difference between the level of births and the level of deaths (currently about 900 people per annum in the Borough) is referred to as “natural change”. So using this trend as a starting point, we would have 900 additional people to accommodate every year.

For at least half a century, people have been changing their living patterns to the extent that the average size of a household (average number of people living in a home) has continued to decline, both nationally and locally. Between 1951 and 2001, the average household size within Hampshire decreased from 3.23 persons to 2.39 – one additional home for every four existing homes was needed to house the same population – without any allowance for natural change or migration. Likewise, within Basingstoke and Deane, the average household size fell from 2.64 persons to 2.45 in the decade from 1991 to 2001. Within just 10 years this reduction resulted in the formation of 4,265 additional households in the Borough. When combined with natural change, this means that a total of 7,300 extra households were created within the Borough without counting any net in- migration (i.e. people moving into the borough).

Housing growth

The following table shows how housing stock has changed in the borough over the recent past. The source is Small Area Population Forecasts (2006 and 2009 based)3.

Dwelling stock by area: 2006 and 2010 Homes in Basingstoke and Deane Change in dwelling stock 2006 2010 2006-2010

South East 1,440 1,470 30 East 3,449 3,569 120 North East 2,304 2,514 210 North & 7,570 7,681 111 North & 2,136 2,209 73 North West 2,840 2,902 62 South West 2,984 3,140 156 South & Overton 2,164 2,335 171 Oakley & Deane 2,234 2,256 22 North of Basingstoke town 940 961 21 Basingstoke town 38,923 42,684 3,761 Total 66,984 71,721 4,737

3 Dwellings supply information includes all large and small sites with planning permission or allocated in Local Plans at 1st April 2009 based on phasing agreed with district councils.

4 of 11

House prices & affordability4

 Following a down turn in house prices in 2008/9, house prices in the borough have increased once more.  The least expensive (lower quartile) homes/house prices are just over £160,000 (£163,250) having risen from £84,961 (1st quarter 2000) over the last decade.

200,000 Lower level house prices (£) Basingstoke and Deane 1996 - 2010 (CLG live tables)

150,000

100,000 House price (£)... price House

50,000

0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 South East Hampshire Basingstoke and Deane

 Average (median) house prices in Basingstoke and Deane stand at around £210,000 (1st quarter 2010) and have increased from £114,000 (1st quarter 2000) in the last decade.

250,000 Average (median) house prices (£) Basingstoke and Deane 1996 - 2010 (CLG live tables)

200,000

150,000

100,000 House price (£)....

50,000

0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

England South East Hampshire Basingstoke and Deane

4 Data for borough level only. House price data relates to 2010 (Quarter 1). Average is defined as median; “Lower” house prices and income are lower quartile. Data is taken from CLG Live Tables (582 & 583) at: http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/housingmarket/l ivetables/

5 of 11

 House prices in the borough are, on average, slightly lower than those for neighbouring districts - however, housing affordability remains an issue and home ownership is financially out of reach for many people.  Essentially, the “house price to income ratio”5 for the borough, indicates that on average across the borough, even lower quartile (the lowest 25%) house prices are as much as seven times higher than the earnings of those people paid a lower quartile wage. This has increased from a ratio of 4.8 times a decade ago. This ratio can be used as a general indicator of affordability and the lower quartile house price gives an entry price to owner occupation.  The median house price to income ratio has increased from 4.5 to 6.5 over the last decade – average house prices are therefore 6.5 times higher than average earnings levels locally.

10.00 Main graph: ratio of lower house prices to lower income Inset: average house prices to average income Basingstoke and Deane 9.00 Source: CLG live tables

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00 10.00 9.00 4.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 3.00 5.00 Ratio of house Ratio prices to income.... 4.00 average England average South East 2.00 3.00 lower quartile England 2.00 average Hampshire lower quartile South East 1.00 average Basingstoke and Deane Ratio of house prices to income.....house prices Ratio of 1.00 lower quartile Hampshire 0.00 lower quartile Basingstoke and Deane 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5 Data for borough level only. Affordability data relates to 2009. Income is taken from Annual Survey of Hours and Earning (ASHE) and is based on full time workplace based earnings. Data taken from CLG live tables (576 & 577) at: http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/housingmarket/l ivetables/

6 of 11

Affordable Housing needs

Increase in the housing register:

 The housing register overall has increased by 20% over the four year period 2006-2010 - the increase is expected to continue, particularly in the current economic climate.  As at August 2010 there are 6,189 households on the housing register.  There has been an increase in the percentage of households on the register with identified housing ‘need’ – increasing from around 60% in 2002, to 70% in 2008.  Currently (August 2010), 84% (5,200) of households on the register have some level of housing ‘need’ as identified by the borough council’s points system.

Number of households on the housing register 6,200 households 7000 2006 - 2010 (84% are in Basingstoke and Deane housing need based on the points system)

6000 5,100 households

5000

4000

Review of the housing register 3000 temporarily reduces the numbers on it due to non- responses

2000

1000 Number of households on the housing register ..... register housing the on households of Number

0 March / April March / April March / April March / April March / April 01/07/2010 01/08/2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Profile of the housing register

 There are more than 800 households in the rural area on the housing register.  Between 80% and 90% of housing register applicants want to live in Basingstoke town.  In Basingstoke town, around 44% of housing register applicants are single, and 10 - 12% couples. Around 45% are families.  In the rural area of the borough, there is a higher percentage of couples (20%) - one third of housing register applicants are single and 45% families.  Overall, families tend to be in the higher bands for housing ‘need’.  Across the borough, around 10% of applicants on the register are waiting for sheltered accommodation or some other form of other elderly housing provision.  The housing register profile shows that there is need for a good mix of different sized accommodation across the borough.

How affordable housing need is met

 In the rural area as a whole, existing affordable stock turnover runs at around 4.4% of all stock which equates to around 145 dwellings per year. If any further housing need is to be met then it must be from new build.  Over the next five years, the Basingstoke and Deane Rural Housing Study (2009) identified a need for 289 affordable homes per annum in the rural area, and a need of 292 market (private sale) homes per annum.  In Basingstoke town, the affordable stock turnover is around 7% to 8%.

7 of 11

 For the past three years, there has been an average of 704 lets from existing affordable stock in the borough (2007/8 – 557; 2008/9 - 706, and 849 lets in 2009/10) – but only 328 on average per year from new build, despite the increase in the housing needs waiting list.  Suggested correlations have been identified between the number of affordable homes delivered and the impact on reducing homelessness. Due in part to its success in affordable homes delivery in the past, Basingstoke and Deane has achieved almost a 100% reduction in the number of households becoming homeless and being placed into temporary accommodation - in spite of sustained levels of potential households approaching the council for advice and assistance  By contrast some neighbouring districts, which have delivered fewer affordable homes, have seen smaller reductions in homelessness, and where affordable delivery is severely restricted, even increases in the numbers being placed into temporary accommodation.  In the current financial climate, and with reductions in Government grant for affordable housing already taking effect, Basingstoke and Deane`s target of 40% affordable homes on larger sites may be at risk, and a sufficient supply of market housing will be increasingly required on site to support the affordable provision.

Housing need from within and outside the borough (“self containment” and “in-migration”)

 4.5% of applicants on the housing register are applying for housing from outside the borough – this equates to around 280 households. There are many reasons for this - for example, to be near relatives or to move here for work.  However, 98% of households applying to move to the borough are in the lowest 2 bands for housing need. Of those applicants without “local connection”, 60% have no housing need.  The Basingstoke and Deane Rural Housing Study (2009) found that of those households planning to move in the next three years, there was a high percentage who wanted to move to somewhere within their own (self containment). The table reflects those households who intended to move to either market housing or affordable housing.

Self containment: the Basingstoke and Deane Rural Housing Study 2009 Survey respondents who intend to move within the next three years Total number of Of which those who are respondents who Percentage planning to move within Parish sub-area expressed intent to move self – containment their own sub-area in the next three years South East 114 103 90.4% East 340 236 69.4% North East 199 141 70.9% North and Tadley 506 440 87.0% North and Kingsclere 145 135 93.1% North West 136 136 100.0% South West 271 261 96.3% South and Overton 136 128 94.1% Oakley and Deane 190 134 70.5% North of Basingstoke town 111 72 64.9%

8 of 11

Employment, unemployment and deprivation

The borough economy

 It is estimated that there are around 83,6006 jobs in the borough. This has increased from 58,000 jobs in the mid 90’s.

83,600 jobs in 90,000 2008

80,000

70,000

60,000 58,000 jobs in 50,000 1995 Total number of employee jobs in Basingstoke and Deane 40,000 1995 - 2008 (Annual Business Inquiry)

Number of jobs ... jobs of Number 30,000

20,000

10,000

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

 The “banking, finance, and insurance” and business” and “distribution, hotels and restaurants” sectors are particularly well represented (the former also includes business support). Over the last decade there has been a 35% increase in distribution, hotels and restaurants jobs, a 64% increase in jobs in the finance/IT/business support sector.  Overall, the industrial sectoral split is well balanced – a diverse economy, where many employment and industrial sectors can thrive, being one of the borough’s strengths. The local economy therefore potentially provides jobs for people with all skills and qualifications levels.

Public administration, Manufacturing: 9,000 jobs education & health: 15,000 jobs Construction: 3,600 jobs

The number of jobs by broad industry sector Tourism: 4,600 jobs Basingstoke and Deane 2008 (total = 83,600 jobs)

Banking, finance and insurance: 22,400 jobs Distribution, hotels & restaurants: 20,700 jobs

Transport & communications: 4,700 jobs

 Overall, the borough has relatively high levels of employment, with the employment rate in Basingstoke and Deane standing at 76.4% (compared to the national (GB) average of 70%7).

6 Data taken from the Annual Business Inquiry 2008

9 of 11

 Unemployment is relatively low – the percentage of Job Seekers Allowance claimants stands at 2.2%8 - compared to the South East regional average of 2.4% and GB average of 3.6%.  Overall, in Basingstoke and Deane, 7.8% of the working age population9 are claiming key out of work benefits10. This has risen from around the more typical 5.7% to 6% since early 2008. Despite this increase, the borough rate remains below that for the South East average (9.1%) and the national (GB) average of 12.9%.

Basingstoke town11

 There is a considerable range in Job Seekers Allowance claimant rates across the town area, from 1.3% to 5.1% of the working age population.  All the town wards have seen an increase in the percentage of JSA claimants in the recent past (2008 – 2010) as can be seen from the graph below.

6.0 Job Seekers Allowance Claimant Count August 2004 Basingstoke town wards (pre-2008) August 2006 Percentage of the working age population claiming JSA August 2008 2004 - 2010 5.0 August 2010

4.0

3.0

2.0

% of the working age population.... 1.0

0.0

h g e n t n t op v ott s m r h or t Ea West Ha N South s Gro dow lebury l Norde s h l Furlon Ea ut k s Buckskin Chineham pley Kemps So Win Po Popley Rook ton Hill h nd Beggarwood ighton Hi a Br Brig

Warren ch Brookvale and King t Ha

 The percentage of the working age population claiming key benefits varies from ward to ward. However, all wards have seen an increase in claimant rate over the last decade (since 2000). This is largely due to the increase in JSA rate.

7 Employment rate taken from the Annual Population Survey (April 2009 – March 2010): the percentage of working age people in employment (including self employment) 8 August 2010 9 Working age population defined as all people aged 16-64 10 Key out of work benefits include Job Seekers Allowance, Employment Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefit. Data relate to February 2010 11 Benefits and JSA data is available for ward boundaries pre-2008

10 of 11

Percentage of the working age population claiming key benefits 2000 20.0 Basingstoke town wards (pre-2008) 2000 and 2010 2010 18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0 Percentage % Percentage

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

t in m e s m y th k a op est wn r tr rov ou eh s Ea W do bu l North S n G y le il Ea Norden th Ha k ill Bucks oks in Chi o ou n H n H Kempshott Pople opley R S W o Beggarwood P hto d ight g r ri B B

okvale and Kings Furlong o Br Hatch Warren an

 Across the town, communities may experience varying levels of deprivation12 and disadvantage in one or more themes.  All areas score well in terms of access to services.  However, some communities may experience higher levels of deprivation, particularly around their educational attainment, unemployment or lower income levels, crime or a combination of these (“multiple deprivation”).  Set in the national context, none of the town wards fall within the bottom 20% of deprived areas in England for multiple deprivation (deprivation combined across a number of themes). However, a small number of neighbourhoods in Basingstoke town do fall within the bottom 10% in a single theme.  Further analysis of these themes and areas can be found in the Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy 2006, and 2009 update.

12 Indices of Deprivation 2007

11 of 11