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Our Changing World: a Global Assessment

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Our Changing World: a Global Assessment OUR CHANGING WORLD A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT 1991 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ...................................... ASIA AND THE PACIFIC . ... .. ......... ... ... 35 Japan ........ .......... .... ..... ............ 35 CHRONOLOGY OF SIGNIFICANT EVENTS . .. .. 2 Republic of Korea ....... .... ............. .... ...... 37 North Korea .... ... ..... .... ..... ............... 38 NATO .................................................. 3 China ... ............... ........ ... .... .... .... 39 Canada . ...... .. ....... ... .... ......... ... 5 Taiwan ... ...... ... ...... ... ................... 39 Great Britain . 5 Philippines ... ....................... .... .... ... 40 France . .. .. 6 Vietnam .......... ....... ....... .... ....... ... 41 Germany .. .. .... ..... ............ ..... .. .. 7 Cambodia . ......... .... .......................... 41 Spain . .................................... ....... 8 Thailand ............ ........ .......... ....... ... 42 Italy . .. .. 8 India ...... ........... .... ..................... 43 Greece . ... ... ... ............ .... ... .... ..... .. 9 Pakistan ..... ....... .. ................. ... ...... 44 Afghanistan ....................................... 44 EASTERN EUROPE . ........ ... ..... ...... .... ... 10 Australia . .......... ....... ............... ...... 45 Poland . ..... ....................... ........... ... 10 Czechoslovakia . .. 12 MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA Hungary ...... .............. ....... ....... ... ... 13 AND THE CARIBBEAN . ........................ 46 Romania . ..... ..................... ......... 13 Mexico ................. ....... ........ .. ....... 46 Bulgaria ........................................... 14 Guatemala .. ... ... ...... .... .... ..... ......... 47 Yugoslavia ....... ................................. 14 El Salvador .. ... .... .............. ....... ....... 48 Albania .. .......... .. ......... .... .... ... ... 15 Nicaragua .............. ........ ..... ....... 48 Panama ....... ............ ........ ........ ...... 49 THE SOVIET UNION IN 1991 ........................... 15 Cuba ....... ...... ...... ......... ..... .......... 49 Haiti . .... ... ..... ....... .... .. ... .... .. 50 AFRICA . ... ........... ... .......... ................... 19 Algeria ........ ......... ........ .. ........... .... 21 SOUTH AMERICA ....... ...... ....... ...... ... .... .. 51 Liberia ............................................ 21 Colombia . .. ....... ... .... .... ... ............. 51 Libya ........... .... .. ............ ............ .. 22 Venezuela ..... .... ...... ................ ... 53 Sudan ........... ......... ...... .... .. ..... ..... 23 Brazil ............... ........... ....... ........... 53 Ethiopia ........................................... 23 Peru . ....... ... ...... .............. ......... 54 Somalia ..... ....... ............................. 24 Bolivia ........... ......... ........ ..... ........... 55 Kenya ............ ...... ... ....... ... ...... ... 25 Argentina .. ........ ... .. .................. .. 55 Angola .... ......... ............................... 26 Chile ................. .............. ... .... ...... 56 South Africa . ...... ... ..... ......... ....... .. 26 CONCLUSION ............ ... ........ ............... 57 THE MIDDLE EAST ..... .................... .......... 27 Turkey .. ..... .. ........ ............. ..... 29 MAPS Egypt . ... .... .... .... .......................... 30 Western Europe . .. 4 Lebanon .......... ...... .... ..... .......... ...... 30 Eastern Europe . I I Syria ................... ........... ... ... .... 31 Commonwealth of Independent States . .. 16 Israel ............. .. .......... ...... .... ... ..... 31 Africa ......... ................ ........ .. ..... 20 Jordan . ......... ...... .......... .......... .. 32 Middle East . ................................ ..... 28 Iran .... .... .... .......... ....... ...... .... ...... 32 Asia and the Pacific Basin ..... ..... ...... ...... 36 Iraq ................ ......... .............. .. .. 33 Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean .......... 47 Kuwait .......... ....... .............. ....... .... 34 South America ..... .............................. 52 Saudi Arabia .............. ...... ...... ............. 34 OUR CHANGING WORLD A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT 1991 INTRODUCTION changed most of the assumptions that have fed the devel­ opment of nuclear doctrine over the past 40 years. At the end of 1991 , as we have clone for each of the past While these three are the most obvious indicators of the I X years, we examined the events that transpired around the changes that took place in the world in 1991, they by no globe and tried to give them some relationship to the well­ means tell the whole story. Our own country, and indeed being of the United States as a member of the world com­ much of the world, is grappling with severe economic and munity. For too many of those years, our attempt to put the human problems. Inflation, unemployment and welfare major political, military, economic and social events into costs are constants in our own society. Elsewhere, economic perspective has been a depressing task. But the often star­ chaos, starvation and conflict are additional burdens. As tling political events of the past three years give us cause to 1992 begins, ours is a world of tension and uncertainty just view the world in which we live with more than a little as the past year has been. There is no place to hide, so the optimism. task is to face up to these difficulties and bring to bear our Such was indeed the case for the year just past, when best thoughts and energies toward their solution. three defining events marked the end of the international This report is not intended as the definitive work for order of the last half century. Those extraordinary events historians or academicians, but rather to give our citizenry were, in the order of their occurrence, the Persian Gulf War, a usable summary, clearly presented. We recognize that the the failed Soviet coup and unilateral reductions in the United United States and the world remain beset with economic States' strategic nuclear arsenal. problems of the gravest nature. However, our primary con­ The Gulf War was an extraordinary conflict of unprece­ cern will be with the current state of world political and dented and improbable coalitions against spectacular stra­ military affairs, our foreign policy, and the strength and tegic and tactical ineptitude on the part of Saddam Hussein. credibility of our defense posture on which any successful It vindicated more than a decade of American defense in­ foreign policy must rest. vestments. Also, it has been argued that this war foreshad­ This annual global assessment is a product of the AUSA ows the future in that the invasion of Kuwait probably would Institute of Land Warfare, LTG Richard L. West, USA not have occurred in the old bipolar world order character­ Ret., Director. Contributing to this effort are: GEN Fred­ ized by constant superpower confrontation. erick W. Kroesen, GEN Robert W. Sennewald, GEN Glenn The second event (in point of time, but firston our scale K. Otis, GEN Louis C. Wagner, Jr., MG Edward B. Atke­ of importance) was the failed coup in Moscow which, perv­ son, all USA Ret., MG Robert F. Cocklin, AUS Ret., and ersely, hastened the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Sandra J. Daugherty. COL Thomas D. Byrne, USA Ret., made irrevocable the political and economic reform in the is the editor, MSGT (Ret.) George E. Ehling assembled the republics. That settled for the foreseeable future the ques­ statistical information for each country and Lori Johnston, tion of whether there could be a reversion from the Gor­ Stephanie Akiwowo and Patricia Taylor provided vital ad­ bachev reforms and a return to the old Soviet character and ministrative assistance. communist threat. The third event, resulting in large part from the second but of nearly equal magnitude, was President Bush's deci­ sion to change dramatically and unilaterally the nuclear pos­ ture of the United States. By taking bombers and missiles JACK N. MERRITT off alert, withdrawing forward deployed weapons and prom­ General, USA Ret. ising significant reductions in U.S. nuclear weapons, he President EDITOR'S NOTE: Since we do not cover all the nations of the world. the selection of countries for this report is a subjective judgment made after a review of a great variety of sources. The grouping of nations by region is likewise a subjective call. The major sources for the demographic information in each section are: The World Factbook 1991. Central Intelligence Agency. Washington. D.C.; The Military Ralwrce 1991-/992, The International Institute of Strategic Studies, London; The World Almanac and Rook of Facts /992, Pharos Books. New York; and D�(ense 9/ Almanac, September/October 1991, Department of De­ fense, Armed Forces Information Service, Alexandria, VA. A CHRONOLOGY OF THE YEAR'S MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENTS January 12 -U.S. Congress authorizes use of force to June 25 -Slovenia and Croatia declare evict Iraq from Kuwait. independence. January 13 -Mario Soares reelected president of July I -Warsaw Pact officially disbands. Portugal. July 18 -Arab states accept U.S. terms for January 16 -U.S.-led coalition attacks Iraq after U.N. Middle East peace conference. deadline for withdrawal. July 30 -START treaty signed by U.S./U.S.S.R. February 7 -IRA attempts to assassinate British in Moscow. cabinet. August 4 -Israel agrees to attend Middle East peace February 20-Slovenia, Croatia withdraw from conference.
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