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A Reconsideration of Fiscal Policy in the Era of Low Interest Rates

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A Reconsideration of Fiscal Policy in the Era of Low Interest Rates A Reconsideration of Fiscal Policy in the Era of Low Interest Rates Jason Furman & Lawrence Summers Presentation to the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy and Peterson Institute for International Economics December 1, 2020 Interest rates are low despite debt being high Note: Debt-to-GDP forecast is the CBO 10-year ahead forecast (2030 from June 2019 Alternative Fiscal Scenario for 2020). Real interest rates are based on 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) from January 2000 and February 2020. Source: Congressional Budget Office; U.S. Department of the Treasury; authors' calculations. Interest rates have fallen everywhere, starting before the financial crisis and continuing after it Real Ten-Year Benchmark Rate Percent 12 Canada France Germany Italy 10 United Kingdom Japan United States 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Note: Inflation measured by one-year changes in the core consumer price index (core personal consumption expenditures for United States). Source: Bank of Canada; Statistics Canada; Eurostat; Japanese Statistics Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Macrobond; authors’ calculations. Interest rates are expected to stay low Ten-Year Treasury Rate Percent 16 2030:Q4 Market expectations: 14 72% probability FFR < 0.25 12 five years from now 10 Historical 1.4% FFR a decade from 8 now 6 -0.9% real FFR a decade from now 4 CBO 2 2% nominal 10-year rate a Market-implied decade from now 0 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 2024 Note: Dashed lines are projections. Market-implied rates as of November 27, 2020. Source: Congressional Budget Office; Bloomberg. Three challenges posed by low interest rates 1. Less scope for monetary policy in recessions o Average 630 basis point cut in past recessions 2. Increased financial stability risks o Increased risk taking o Increased fragility for banks 3. Possibility of demand shortfalls in normal times o Monetary and fiscal policy in 2018-19 looked like the response to a medium-sized recession with the fed funds rate cut to 1.15 percentage point and a 2.6 percent of GDP fiscal expansion. o If Bowles-Simpson had passed after 2010 would have been hard to have reasonable growth over the following decade. Three implications of low interest rates and the opportunities they afford 1. Active use of fiscal policy is essential in order to maximize employment and maintain financial stability in the current low interest rate world 2. Lower interest rates necessitate new measures of a country’s fiscal situation 3. The scope and need for public investment has greatly expanded Implication 1: Countries cannot afford not to undertake fiscal expansions in recessions Effects of a 1 Percent of GDP Increase in Federal Purchases for Five Years on Debt-to-GDP Ratio Percentage Points 0.4 0.2 Similar findings in: 0.0 -0.2 IMF modelling (Gaspar, -0.4 Obstfeld and Sahay 2016) -0.6 -0.8 Without Hysteresis OECD modelling (2016) -1.0 -1.2 Auerbach and -1.4 Gorodnichenko (2017) -1.6 With -1.8 Hysteresis -2.0 Works the same way or -2.2 even more in countries -2.4 with high debt levels. 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Source: Reifschneider and Summers as reported in Ball, DeLong, and Summers (2017). Other steps that should be taken 1. Automatic recession insurance o U.S. automatic stabilizers relatively weak o Triggers for state assistance, unemployment insurance, nutritional assistance, etc. 2. Further demand increases in a budget neutral manner o Balanced budget multiplier o More progressive fiscal policy o Expanded social insurance Implication 2: Lower interest rates necessitate new measures of a country’s fiscal situation Stock Debt Backward looking Flow NPV of U.S. GDP GDP is $3.9 quadrillion (SS Trustees) or ∞ (if r<g). Stock-stock: debt stable relative to future GDP even while tripling relative to present GDP Debt as a Percentage of Current and Infinite Horizon GDP Percent of Current GDP Percent of Infinite Horizon GDP 110 1.1 100 Debt as a Percentage of 1.0 90 Current GDP (left axis) 0.9 80 0.8 70 Debt as a Percentage 0.7 of Infinite Horizon 60 GDP (right axis) 0.6 50 0.5 40 0.4 30 0.3 20 0.2 10 0.1 0 0.0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Note: 2021 value is based on debt as of November 19, 2020. Source: The Board of Trustees, Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters; Department of the Treasury; Macrobond; authors’ calculations. Flow-flow: real debt service has fallen even while debt has increased U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public and Real Net Interest Payments Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 125 3 100 2 Real Interest Debt Held by the Payments Public (left axis) 75 (right axis) 1 50 0 25 -1 0 -2 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Note: 2021 values are projections. Source: Office of Management and Budget; Congressional Budget Office; Macrobond; authors’ calculations. Technical aside: should exclude financial assets from debt & Federal Reserve remittances from interest Debt Held by the Public and Debt Net of Financial Assets Net Interest Payments as a Percentage of GDP Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 120 2.5 2019 2019 100 2.0 80 Debt Held Net Interest by the 1.5 60 Public 1.0 40 Net Interest excl. 0.5 20 Debt Net of Remittances from the Financial Federal Reserve Assets 0 0.0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Source: Office of Management and Budget; Richard Kogan’s calculations; authors’ calculations. Looking forward: debt projected to be stable over the next decade & beyond if Social Security reformed U.S. Federal Debt Held by The Public Percent of GDP 175 150 Baseline 125 100 Historical Social Security Reform 75 Reform 50 25 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Note: Social Security reform phased in linearly from 0.5% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP over 10 years beginning in 2025. Source: Office of Management and Budget; Congressional Budget Office; Macrobond; authors’ calculations. The more relevant metric of real debt service expected to stay low relative to the economy U.S. Federal Real Interest Payments Percent of GDP 3 2 Baseline Historical 1 0 Social -1 Security Reform -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Note: Social Security reform phased in linearly from 0.5% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP over 10 years beginning in 2025. Source: Office of Management and Budget; Congressional Budget Office; Macrobond; authors’ calculations. Thirty-year ahead budget forecasts are incredibly uncertain U.S. Federal Debt Held by The Public Percent of GDP 200 175 90% 150 Confidence Interval 125 Social Security 100 Reform Historical 75 50 25 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Note: Social Security reform phased in linearly from 0.5% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP over 10 years beginning in 2025 Source: Office of Management and Budget; Congressional Budget Office; Macrobond; authors’ calculations. Implication 3: The scope and need for public investment has greatly expanded Blanchard (2019) argues that r – g being negative should change how we think about intergenerational fiscal policy. • Demand perspective: Fiscal expansions in recessions may improve debt-to-GDP ratio • Supply perspective: At low interest rates more public investments pay for themselves: o Children (Hendren and Sprung-Keyser 2020) o Infrastructure o Research and development Going forward we need a fiscal framework that is a combination of: •Optimal •Understandable •Achievable New objectives, guideposts and guidelines Context: Interest rates are dangerously low, debt is projected to be stable, real debt service is projected to be low. More fiscal expansion needed. Objective: Growth and financial stability including the avoidance of recessions and stronger long-term growth. New guidepost: Real interest payments should not be rising sharply or projected to exceed around 2 percent of GDP over the next decade. Guidelines: 1. Temporary emergencies should not be paid for, broad definition 2. Long-term programs should be paid for, broad exceptions 3. Improve composition of government to support demand and efficiency A Reconsideration of Fiscal Policy in the Era of Low Interest Rates Jason Furman & Lawrence Summers Presentation to the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy and Peterson Institute for International Economics December 1, 2020.
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