Appendix I. Financial Policy Committee Meetings
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Rachel Lomax: Inflation Targeting in Practice - Models, Forecasts and Hunches
Rachel Lomax: Inflation targeting in practice - models, forecasts and hunches Speech by Ms Rachel Lomax, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, to the 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London, 12 March 2005. I am most grateful to Jens Larsen, James Bell, Fabrizio Zampolli and Robin Windle for research support; and to Charlie Bean, Peter Andrews, Spencer Dale, Phil Evans, Laura Piscitelli and other colleagues at the Bank of England for helpful comments. * * * Introduction Five and a half years ago in his Monnet lecture Charles Goodhart1 was able to talk with some confidence of the features that particularly distinguished the UK’s approach to inflation targeting. Today with over 20 countries, in every habitable continent, formally operating some variant of inflation targeting and many more adopting some parts of the framework, all actively sharing experience and best practice, I suspect that most aspects of our approach would find a counterpart somewhere else in the world. But Charles’s focus on the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) personal engagement in producing a published inflation forecast still seems to me to capture the essence of the UK’s approach. Today I want to talk about the role that forecasting has come to play in helping the MPC to take and communicate its decisions. In what sense does the Committee really ‘own’ the published forecasts that go out under its name? How much use do we make of models, and what models do we use? How far do our forecasts appear to drive interest rate decisions? And is there any evidence that this has helped to make policy more or less predictable? Finally I want to end by commenting on some of the issues raised by forecasts as a means of communication. -
The Run on the Rock
House of Commons Treasury Committee The run on the Rock Fifth Report of Session 2007–08 Volume II Oral and written evidence Ordered by The House of Commons to be printed 24 January 2008 HC 56–II [Incorporating HC 999 i–iv, Session 2006-07] Published on 1 February 2008 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £25.50 The Treasury Committee The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs and associated public bodies. Current membership Rt Hon John McFall MP (Labour, West Dunbartonshire) (Chairman) Nick Ainger MP (Labour, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire) Mr Graham Brady MP (Conservative, Altrincham and Sale West) Mr Colin Breed MP (Liberal Democrat, South East Cornwall) Jim Cousins MP (Labour, Newcastle upon Tyne Central) Mr Philip Dunne MP (Conservative, Ludlow) Mr Michael Fallon MP (Conservative, Sevenoaks) (Chairman, Sub-Committee) Ms Sally Keeble MP (Labour, Northampton North) Mr Andrew Love MP (Labour, Edmonton) Mr George Mudie MP (Labour, Leeds East) Mr Siôn Simon MP, (Labour, Birmingham, Erdington) John Thurso MP (Liberal Democrat, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross) Mr Mark Todd MP (Labour, South Derbyshire) Peter Viggers MP (Conservative, Gosport). Powers The Committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No. 152. These are available on the Internet via www.parliament.uk. Publications The Reports and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of the House. -
University of Surrey Discussion Papers in Economics By
råáp=== = = ======råáîÉêëáíó=çÑ=pìêêÉó Discussion Papers in Economics THE DISSENT VOTING BEHAVIOUR OF BANK OF ENGLAND MPC MEMBERS By Christopher Spencer (University of Surrey) DP 03/06 Department of Economics University of Surrey Guildford Surrey GU2 7XH, UK Telephone +44 (0)1483 689380 Facsimile +44 (0)1483 689548 Web www.econ.surrey.ac.uk ISSN: 1749-5075 The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members∗ Christopher Spencer† Department of Economics, University of Surrey Abstract I examine the propensity of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (BoEMPC) members to cast dissenting votes. In particular, I compare the type and frequency of dissenting votes cast by so- called insiders (members of the committee chosen from within the ranks of bank staff)andoutsiders (committee members chosen from outside the ranks of bank staff). Significant differences in the dissent voting behaviour associated with these groups is evidenced. Outsiders are significantly more likely to dissent than insiders; however, whereas outsiders tend to dissent on the side of monetary ease, insiders do so on the side of monetary tightness. I also seek to rationalise why such differences might arise, and in particular, why BoEMPC members might be incentivised to dissent. Amongst other factors, the impact of career backgrounds on dissent voting is examined. Estimates from logit analysis suggest that the effect of career backgrounds is negligible. Keywords: Monetary Policy Committee, insiders, outsiders, dissent voting, career backgrounds, ap- pointment procedures. Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Relationship to the Literature 2 3 Rationalising Dissent Amongst Insiders and Outsiders - Some Priors 3 3.1CareerIncentives........................................... 4 3.2CareerBackgrounds........................................ -
Monetary Policy Oversight in Comparative Perspective: Britain and America During the Financial Crisis
Political Science and Political Economy Working Paper Department of Government London School of Economics No. 3/2014 Monetary Policy Oversight in Comparative Perspective: Britain and America during the Financial Crisis Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey (LSE) Monetary Policy Oversight in Comparative Perspective: Britain and America During the Financial Crisis Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey Government Department London School of Economics and Political Science Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE [email protected] http://personal.lse.ac.uk/schonhar/ This study examines deliberation on monetary policy oversight in the US and UK between 2006 and 2009. It employs reciprocity as the key criterion for judging the quality of monetary policy oversight deliberation (i.e., committee participants are expected to engage with one another, taking up and responding to the reasons offered by other participants). Using automated content analysis, the empirical finding is that reciprocity is clearly evident in the parliamentary oversight committee, but much less so in the two congressional committees. The two country cases represent very different approaches to legislative oversight, with the UK demonstrating a committee approach both in terms of the testimony of the monetary policy body and of the behaviour of the legislative committee, while the US demonstrates a focus on a series of individual contributions both from the Fed chairman and Members of Congress. In the US, this appears to allow greater scope to divert discussion away from the primary focus of hearings (i.e., monetary policy). 1 I. Introduction In normal economic times, clashes between politicians and central bankers in legislative oversight hearings on monetary policy are not typically considered worthy of headline news coverage. -
The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10
ISSN 1750-4171 ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model With An Application To Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10 School of Business and Economics Loughborough University Loughborough LE11 3TU United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1509 222701 Fax: + 44 (0) 1509 223910 http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/economics/ The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model with an application to monetary policy William H. Greeney Max Gillmanz Mark N. Harrisx Christopher Spencer{ September 2013 Abstract We propose a Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model. Our contribution lies not only in explicitly accounting for an excessive number of observations in a given choice category - as is the case in the standard literature on in‡ated models; rather, we introduce a new econometric model which nests the recently developed Middle In‡ated Ordered Probit (MIOP) models of Bagozzi and Mukherjee (2012) and Brooks, Harris, and Spencer (2012) as a special case, and further, can be used as a speci…cation test of the MIOP, where the implicit test is described as being one of symmetry versus asymmetry. In our application, which exploits a panel data-set containing the votes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, we show that the TOP model a¤ords the econometrician considerable ‡exibility with respect to modelling the impact of di¤erent forms of uncertainty on interest rate decisions. Our …ndings, we argue, reveal MPC members’ asymmetric attitudes towards uncertainty and the changeability of interest rates. Keywords: Monetary policy committee, voting, discrete data, uncertainty, tempered equations. -
Mankiw Coursebook
e Forward Guidance Forward Guidance Forward guidance is the practice of communicating the future path of monetary Perspectives from Central Bankers, Scholars policy instruments. Such guidance, it is argued, will help sustain the gradual recovery that now seems to be taking place while central banks unwind their massive and Market Participants balance sheets. This eBook brings together a collection of contributions from central Perspectives from Central Bankers, Scholars and Market Participants bank officials, researchers at universities and central banks, and financial market practitioners. The contributions aim to discuss what economic theory says about Edited by Wouter den Haan forward guidance and to clarify what central banks hope to achieve with it. With contributions from: Peter Praet, Spencer Dale and James Talbot, John C. Williams, Sayuri Shirai, David Miles, Tilman Bletzinger and Volker Wieland, Jeffrey R Campbell, Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni and Christina Patterson, Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi, Richard Barwell and Jagjit S. Chadha, Hans Gersbach and Volker Hahn, David Cobham, Charles Goodhart, Paul Sheard, Kazuo Ueda. CEPR 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ Tel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801 A VoxEU.org eBook Email: [email protected] www.cepr.org Forward Guidance Perspectives from Central Bankers, Scholars and Market Participants A VoxEU.org eBook Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Centre for Economic Policy Research 3rd Floor 77 Bastwick Street London, EC1V 3PZ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801 Email: [email protected] Web: www.cepr.org © 2013 Centre for Economic Policy Research Forward Guidance Perspectives from Central Bankers, Scholars and Market Participants A VoxEU.org eBook Edited by Wouter den Haan a Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research is a network of over 800 Research Fellows and Affiliates, based primarily in European Universities. -
Re-Appointment of Sir Jon Cunliffe As Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England
House of Commons Treasury Committee Re-appointment of Sir Jon Cunliffe as Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England Twenty-Third Report of Session 2017–19 Report, together with formal minutes relating to the report Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 17 October 2018 HC 1626 Published on 18 October 2018 by authority of the House of Commons The Treasury Committee The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue and Customs and associated public bodies Current membership Nicky Morgan MP (Conservative, Loughborough) (Chair) Rushanara Ali MP (Labour, Bethnal Green and Bow) Mr Simon Clarke MP (Conservative, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland) Charlie Elphicke MP (Independent, Dover) Stephen Hammond MP (Conservative, Wimbledon) Stewart Hosie MP (Scottish National Party, Dundee East) Mr Alister Jack MP (Conservative, Dumfries and Galloway) Alison McGovern MP (Labour, Wirral South) Catherine McKinnell MP (Labour, Newcastle upon Tyne North) John Mann MP (Labour, Bassetlaw) Wes Streeting MP (Labour, Ilford North) Powers The committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No. 152. These are available on the internet via www.parliament.uk. Publication Committee reports are published on the Committee’s website at www.parliament.uk/treascom and in print by Order of the House. Evidence relating to this report is published on the inquiry -
Economics Annual Review 2013-2014
Economics Review 2013/14 3 Contents Welcome to the Department of Economics 01 Faculty Profile: Gerard Padró i Miquel 02 Recognition for Economics faculty and alumni in the New Year Honours list 05 Social Media at the LSE Department of Economics 06 LSE awards Honorary Doctorate to Professor Janet Yellen 08 LSE Economics PhD student receives highest OeNB award for outstanding research 08 Economics alumnus Nemat Shafik appointed as new Deputy Governor of the Bank of England 09 Professor Lord Stern recognised for outstanding work in climate science communication 10 LSE Economics students awarded EEA Best Young Economist Awards - again! 11 Professor Charles Bean knighted in the Queen’s Birthday Honours 11 Nobel prizewinner’s inaugural Regius lecture focuses on the euro 12 Scottish referendum turns spotlight on the CFM monthly survey 14 Is it time to end the war on drugs? 15 LSE Economics PhD student first from UK to win Price Theory Scholar Award 16 The Economica Coase-Phillips Lectures 16 Public Events 2013-14 17 Regius Professor Christopher Pissarides knighted for his services to economics 19 The economist and the wider world: the Lionel Robbins digital exhibition 24 Austin Robinson memorial prize awarded to Dr Johannes Spinnewijn 22 Professor John Van Reenen wins 2014 EIB Prize 23 Major Review Teaching Prize: Dr Francesco Nava 23 Professor Lord Stern elected as Fellow of the Royal Society 24 Strong showing for Economics Department in Teaching Excellence Awards 24 Economics student wins Sir Robert Worcester Prize for exceptional academic -
Andrew G Haldane: Seizing the Opportunities from Digital Finance
Seizing the Opportunities from Digital Finance Speech given by Andy Haldane Chief Economist and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee TheCityUK 10th Anniversary Conference 18 November 2020 The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the Bank of England or the Monetary Policy Committee. I would like to thank Kathleen Blake, Shiv Chowla, Harvey Daniell, Rachel Greener, Rachel James, Jack Meaning, Varun Paul, Andrei Pustelnikov, Oliver Thew, Ryland Thomas, Cormac Sullivan and Michael Yoganayagam for their help in preparing the text. I would like to thank Andrew Bailey, Alex Brazier, Jon Cunliffe, Andrew Hauser, Alice Pugh, Christina Segal-Knowles, Silvana Tenreyro and Jan Vlieghe for their comments. 1 All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice Let me thank the TheCityUK for the opportunity to speak at this 10th Anniversary event at such a critical time for the financial services sector and the economy as a whole. We all live in hope of the three Rs that are the theme of the conference - Recovery, Rebalancing and Revitalisation. With the recent positive news about vaccines, that hope is now justified. I want to discuss today the three R’s in the context of financial services. Covid is a twin crisis, a health crisis and an economic crisis rolled into one. It has exposed every person and every business in every country in the world to that double jeopardy. In the UK, it has already resulted in over 50,000 deaths, more than 1 million people losing their jobs, around 9 million people seeing their incomes fall and almost the whole country feeling more anxious about the future. -
Former Bank Deputy Governor Paul Tucker Receives Knighthood
BUSINESS 31 December 2013 Former Bank deputy governor Paul Tucker receives knighthood Paul Tucker, who served as a deputy governor at the Bank of England, has been given a knighthood for services to central banking. Sir Paul lost out to Canadian Mark Carney for the top job when Mervyn King left as governor. He left the Bank to take up a senior fellowship at Harvard after more than 30 years at the Bank. Other figures in business and economics in the New Year's Honours List include Karren Brady and Prof John Kay. Sir Paul was caught up in the controversy over the alleged manipulation of the benchmark Libor interbank lending rate earlier in the year when the former Barclays boss, Bob Diamond, published a record of a contentious phone-call with him made in 2008. Sir Paul strongly denied he had implied Barclays could manipulate its borrowing costs down and a committee of MPs agreed that there was no evidence of deliberate wrongdoing. He joined the Bank of England in 1980 after graduating from Cambridge and in 2002 became executive director for markets before becoming deputy governor for financial stability in 2009. Sir Paul's efforts in bracing the financial system against future banking collapses have been well received. Economics The chief executive of stores chain Kingfisher, Ian Cheshire, also received a knighthood for services to business, sustainability and the environment. Karren Brady, who is vice chair of West Ham Football Club, was given a CBE for services to entrepreneurship and women in business. Professor Kay, who holds the chair of economics at LSE and is a regular contributor to the Financial Times, was created a CBE for services to economics. -
Working Paper Series
BANKWEST CURTIN ECONOMICS CENTRE WORKING PAPER SERIES 13/9: Estimating the Standard Errors of Individual- Specifi c Parameters in Random Parameters Models William Greene, Mark N. Harris, Christopher Spencer business.curtin.edu.au/bcec This paper was written by researchers affi liated with the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (‘the Centre’). While every eff ort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document, the uncertain nature of economic data, forecasting and analysis means that the Centre, Curtin University and/or Bankwest are unable to make any warranties in relation to the information contained herein. Any person who relies on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. The Centre, Curtin University, Bankwest, and/or their employees and agents disclaim liability for any loss or damage, which may arise as a consequence of any person relying on the information contained in this document. Except where liability under any statute cannot be excluded, the Centre, Curtin University, Bankwest and/or their advisors, employees and offi cers do not accept any liability (whether under contract, tort or otherwise) for any resulting loss or damage suff ered by the reader or by any other person. The views in this publication are those of the authors and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affi liates. This publication is provided as general information only and does not consider anyone’s specifi c objectives, situation or needs. Neither the authors nor the Centre accept any duty of care or liability to anyone regarding this publication or any loss suff ered in connection with the use of this publication or any of its content. -
The Run on the Rock
House of Commons Treasury Committee The run on the Rock Fifth Report of Session 2007–08 Volume I Report, together with formal minutes Ordered by The House of Commons to be printed 24 January 2008 HC 56–I [Incorporating HC 999 i–iv, Session 2006-07] Published on Saturday 26 January 2008 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £20.00 The Treasury Committee The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs and associated public bodies. Current membership Rt Hon John McFall MP (Labour, West Dunbartonshire) (Chairman) Nick Ainger MP (Labour, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire) Mr Graham Brady MP (Conservative, Altrincham and Sale West) Mr Colin Breed MP (Liberal Democrat, South East Cornwall) Jim Cousins MP (Labour, Newcastle upon Tyne Central) Mr Philip Dunne MP (Conservative, Ludlow) Mr Michael Fallon MP (Conservative, Sevenoaks) (Chairman, Sub-Committee) Ms Sally Keeble MP (Labour, Northampton North) Mr Andrew Love MP (Labour, Edmonton) Mr George Mudie MP (Labour, Leeds East) Mr Siôn Simon MP, (Labour, Birmingham, Erdington) John Thurso MP (Liberal Democrat, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross) Mr Mark Todd MP (Labour, South Derbyshire) Peter Viggers MP (Conservative, Gosport). Powers The Committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No. 152. These are available on the Internet via www.parliament.uk. Publications The Reports and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of the House.