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The Financial System of the Future: 44Th Economics Conference 2017 of the Oenb in Cooperation with SUERF

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The Financial System of the Future: 44Th Economics Conference 2017 of the Oenb in Cooperation with SUERF A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Ed.) Proceedings The financial system of the future: 44th Economics Conference 2017 of the OeNB in cooperation with SUERF SUERF Conference Proceedings, No. 2017/3 Provided in Cooperation with: SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum, Vienna Suggested Citation: Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Ed.) (2017) : The financial system of the future: 44th Economics Conference 2017 of the OeNB in cooperation with SUERF, SUERF Conference Proceedings, No. 2017/3, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, Vienna This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/193955 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu SUERF THE EUROPEAN MONEY AND FINANCE FORUM D:HI:GG:>8=>H8=:C6I>DC6A76C@ :JGDHNHI:B 44th ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2017 of the OeNB in cooperation with SUERF The Financial System of the Future Contents Contents Ewald Nowotny Session 5 Opening remarks 4 Technological change and the future of cash Thomas Drozda Kurt Pribil Opening address: The Financial System of the Future 10 Introductory statement: Technological change and the future of cash 110 Clemens Jobst, Helmut Stix Session 1 Is cash back? Assessing the recent increase in cash demand 112 Digital money and digital banking François R. Velde Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald Money and payments in the digital age: innovations and challenges 124 Introductory remarks: Digital money and digital banking 18 Michael Kumhof Session 6 The macroeconomics of central-bank-issued digital currencies 22 FinTech: opportunities and challenges for banks and regulators Thomas Puschmann Peter Mooslechner Banking without banks: Will technology transform financial intermediation? 26 The FinTech Revolution: More important than the ATM? 136 Klaus Kumpfmüller Session 2 Financial innovation – a regulator’s perspective 144 Keynote address Andreas Ittner Session 7 Introductory remarks: Preparing banking regulation for the future 36 SUERF annual lecture Sir Paul Tucker Erkki Likkanen The political economy of central banking in the digital age 42 Is the post-crisis financial system more resilient? What remains to be done? 150 Session 3 Contributors 158 Technological change and the future of financial intermediation Martin Summer Introductory statement: Technological change and the future of financial intermediation 60 Patricia Jackson PSD2 and open banking: the policy issues 62 John Kay Technological change and the future of financial intermediation 70 Session 4 The capital markets of the future Ernest Gnan The capital markets of the future: positive versus normative aspects 80 Nikolaus Hautsch High-frequency trading: risks and benefits 84 David Yermack Smart contracts and corporate governance 94 Klaus Liebscher Award ceremony 100 Dinner speech Hans Jörg Schelling The banking sector – fit for the future? 102 2 OESTERREICHISCHE NATIONALBANK 44th ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2017 3 Ewald Nowotny Opening Remarks Governor Oesterreichische Nationalbank Ladies and gentlemen, cooperation and would also like to I am very pleased to welcome you to encourage those among you who are the 44th Economics Conference of the not yet SUERF members to join this Oesterreichische Nationalbank here in network. Vienna. My particular welcome goes to Fed- Today, I want to invite you to take a eral Minister for Arts and Culture, break from our routine engagement in Constitution and Media Thomas Drozda, the daily workings of the financial sys- who will tell us what role the financial tem. Let us take a look at the future system plays in his vision for the future instead: what kind of institutions and of the Austrian economy. markets will manage our financial wealth, I am also very honored to welcome our liabilities and our payments in 10 my colleague Erkki Liikanen, Governor of or 20 years? Suomen Pankki – the Bank of Finland, To explore this issue, we have as- who will give a lecture here tomorrow. sembled a noteworthy list of distin- Erkki Liikanen is not only a dear col- guished speakers from different back- league of mine on the Governing Coun- grounds in academia, policy making cil of the European Central Bank, but and the financial sector. I am sure they he also heads the central bank of a will provide us with intriguing food for country that is very advanced with thought during our two-day confer- respect to digitalization, which seems ence. I would like to thank all of them to be a major route for the future finan- for coming to Vienna and for contribut- cial system to take all over Europe. He ing to our endeavor. I would also like to is therefore in a vanguard position to take the opportunity to thank the staff shed light on some of the challenges we members of the OeNB, and our friends are most likely to face on the road ahead. at SUERF, for their effort in organizing Thank you very much for joining us this event. today. We are very pleased to organize this year’s Economics Conference jointly with SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum. SUERF has been in existence since 1963 and has made countless contributions to research on money and finance matters over the past half century. SUERF’s central aim is to facilitate and promote dialogue between policy makers, financial firms and practitio- ners as well as academia on money and finance topics. Such a dialogue is defi- nitely also key to shaping the Financial System of the Future. Ladies and gentlemen, The OeNB has had a very special One of the key tasks central banks and good relationship with SUERF for have is to ensure stability. Regardless of over a decade. The OeNB hosts SUERF’s how stability is defined, it is inextrica- Secretariat, and a senior OeNB staff bly linked with a longer-term orienta- member acts as SUERF’s Secretary tion. Looking back at the 200-year his- General. We are very glad about this tory of our bank last year, we were re- 44th ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2017 5 Ewald Nowotny Ewald Nowotny minded of the many unforeseen events remembered for his referral to “known expectations in Europe is a widespread wealth, information collected in the that had unfolded during the past two knowns” as distinct from “known perception that we are about to be Eurosystem’s Household Finance and centuries. And this will become mani- unknowns” and “unknown unknowns”.1 overtaken by strongly growing emerg- Consumption Survey points to dispari- fest in an even broader perspective In economics, these distinctions are ing economies. And indeed, the EU’s ties that are even more pronounced when we celebrate the centenary of the well known, although under different share in global economic activity has than inequalities in income. Income establishment of the Republic of Aus- names – certainty, risk and uncertainty. been declining, namely from 26% in and wealth inequality may fuel social tria next year. For a central bank, committed to 2004 to 22% in 2015, and it is expected tension and harm economic growth, as representing an anchor of stability, the to fall below 20% by 2030. Similarly, pointed out by the IMF’s recent World main orientation points which guide its the EU’s share in world population, Economic Outlook. To tackle inequal- behavior in an uncertain world are of a currently at 6%, will shrink to a mere ity, the IMF reminds us that we will macroeconomic nature: economic growth 4% by 2060.4 But let us not lose sight of have to envisage policies which prospects, population trends and the the fact that neither one of these shares strengthen the position of those at the distribution of the fruits of growth. in isolation is relevant for measuring bottom of the income and wealth dis- With respect to growth, the recov- our prosperity. What really counts is tribution in the labor market, and more ery in the wake of the financial crisis per capita income. Here, the EU – substantial redistributive measures.5 has been modest by historical stan- while still slightly lagging behind the Otherwise, we risk losing public sup- dards. Strong savings, modest invest- U.S.A. – is still far ahead of any other port for policies which contribute to ment activity and a continuing debt economic region. And within the EU, our prosperity. We should not forget overhang have led some observers to Austria is among the top performers that international cooperation and expect a period of secular stagnation. I with respect to per capita income. exchange remain the key to prosperity do not share this gloomy perspective, Perceiving the world economy as an in an interconnected world economy. Times change, and time and again but I agree that we cannot expect a endeavor where the expansion of one Finally, I would like to come back we realize how flawed our efforts are at return of growth rates comparable to country results in a loss for the rest is a to the role of technology.
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