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Berger Paints26may21 India Equity Research | Consumer Goods © May 26, 2021 Result Update Emkay Berger Paints Your success is our success Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report CMP Target Price Rs 832 Rs 585 (▲) as of (May 26, 2021) 12 months Peak quarter; further upgrades not Rating Upside visible SELL (■) (29.7) % . BRGR recorded strong sales growth of 50% to Rs20.3bn in Q4FY21, driven by 53% growth Change in Estimates in the domestic business (7% beat). EBITDA/PAT grew 61%/102%, largely in line with EPS Chg FY22E/FY23E (%) (2.7)/0.5 expectations on account of a slight miss on margins due to higher overheads. Target Price change (%) 4.5 Target Period (Months) 12 . Domestic performance looks better than peers’ due to low comparables. Two-year sales CAGR is in line with APNT (15% for BRGR vs. 16% for APNT). Strong growth momentum Previous Reco SELL indicates buoyant rural demand, pick-up in tier 1/metros and further market share gains. Emkay vs Consensus EPS Estimates . Gross margins were better, possibly driven by one-off inventory gains. Operating margin FY22E FY23E miss was likely a result of one-offs driving higher overhead costs. We expect margin Emkay 10.2 12.2 pressure to increase ahead with the sharp rise in input inflation and slower pricing actions. Consensus 9.6 11.5 . Growth and execution remain impressive but earnings surprises are likely behind now, Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 654 given rising margin pressures. Valuations at 68x FY23E EPS (20% premium to APNT) are Stock Details expensive. Retain Sell with a TP of Rs585 (from Rs560), rolling forward to Jun’23 EPS. Bloomberg Code BRGR IN Strong performance led by domestic business: Berger’s Q4 sales growth was higher than Face Value (Rs) 1 that of peers (Asian and Kansai) at 53% on account of lower comparables (13% decline in Shares outstanding (mn) 971 Q4FY20 vs. 8% decline for APNT). Two-year sales CAGR for the Domestic business stands 52 Week H/L 843 / 441 at 15% vs. 16% for APNT. Growth trends are similar with strong traction in the domestic M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 808 / 11.11 business indicating stronger rural demand, recovery in metros and market share gains from Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 1,143,577 unorganized. Q4 numbers are indicative of a steady performance from subsidiaries with 27% Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 11.7 sales growth and improvement in EBITDA margins to mid-teens, resulting in strong 1.8x EBITDA growth on low comparables. While recent lockdowns will have a short-term impact Shareholding Pattern Mar '21 on the performance, we expect pent-up demand and sustained growth trends in Tier 2/3 towns Promoters 75.0% to drive 15%+ revenue growth. FIIs 11.2% Operating margins impacted by high overheads; input cost pressure to increase ahead: DIIs 4.0% Despite higher input inflation, gross margins were flat YoY and only 50bps lower qoq (vs. peer Public and Others 9.8% witnessing a sharper decline), possibly on account of low-priced inventory, better mix and price hikes in industrial. EBITDA margins were up 120bps due to operating leverage but were Price Performance lower than estimates due to a sharp 63% increase in other overheads, likely due to some one- (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M off spends. Similar to APNT, BRGR has taken a price hike in May’21; however, given the high Absolute 15 22 30 82 inflation, we expect margin pressure to increase ahead. Rel. to Nifty 9 16 11 7 Expensive valuations; Sell: BRGR has continued to grow strongly, largely in line with the Relative price chart leader, with the performance indicating market share gains. While growth and execution 850 20 remain impressive, valuations at 68x FY23 EPS (at 20% premium to APNT) are expensive Rs % and unjustified. We maintain Sell with a revised TP of Rs585 (from Rs560), rolling forward to 770 14 Jun’23 EPS. 690 8 Please see our sector model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Consumer Goods & Retail (page 8) 610 2 530 -4 Financial Snapshot (Consolidated) 450 -10 (Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21May-21 Revenue 63,658 68,176 85,427 98,749 1,12,414 Berger Paints (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS) EBITDA 10,610 11,880 15,394 18,181 21,181 Source: Bloomberg This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The EBITDA Margin (%) 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.4 18.8 following person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation: APAT 6,561 7,197 9,870 11,850 14,022 EPS (Rs) 6.8 7.4 10.2 12.2 14.4 Ashit Desai EPS (% chg) 32.8 9.7 37.1 20.1 18.3 [email protected] +91 22 6612 1340 ROE (%) 25.7 24.9 28.7 28.5 27.9 P/E (x) 123.2 112.3 81.9 68.2 57.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 76.2 67.9 52.1 43.7 37.0 P/BV (x) 30.4 26.0 21.5 17.7 14.7 Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. Berger Paints (BRGR IN) India Equity Research | Result Update Story in Charts Exhibit 1: Low comparables, pent-up demand and recovery across Exhibit 2: Gross margin flat likely due to low priced inventory Tier 1 towns drive growth 53% 60% 50% 44% 43% 44% 44% 26% 40% 41% 41% 41% 41% 40% 19% 24% 40% 12% 13% 16% 7% 7% 5% 20% 3% 30% -2% -9% 0% -13% 20% -16% -23% -20% 10% -30% 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 -40% 4QFY19 -60% 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 -48% 4QFY19 Indicative volume growth Domestic revenue growth Gross margin - LHS EBITDA margin - RHS Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 3: Sales growth: Berger marginally ahead vs. APNT due to Exhibit 4: Berger’s EBITDA Margin trend vs. peers lower comparables 55% 30% 25% 35% 20% 15% 15% -5% 10% 5% -25% 0% 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 -45% 4QFY19 -65% 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 Berger Paints Asian Paints Kansai Berger Paints Asian Paints Kansai Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 5: Crude/TiO2 prices up 24%/10%; prices continue to rise Exhibit 6: One-year forward P/E band chart post Q4 130 120 110 900 100 800 90 700 60x 80 600 70 500 50x 60 400 40x 50 300 30x 200 100 Apr-21 0 4QFY19 3QFY21 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 4QFY21 26-May-21 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Nov-20 May-21 Crude TiO2 May-20 Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. May 26, 2021 | 2 Berger Paints (BRGR IN) India Equity Research | Result Update Exhibit 7: Actual vs. Estimates (Q4FY21) Estimate Consensus % variation Actual Comment (Emkay) estimate Emkay Consensus Revenues 20,261 18,878 17,956 7% 13% Strong 50%+ volume growth EBITDA 3,356 3,225 2,974 4% 13% EBITDA Margin (%) 16.6% 17.1% 16.6% -52 0 Operating leverage drives margin gains APAT 2,086 2,060 1,901 1% 10% Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 8: Quarterly Performance (Consolidated) Rs mn 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY20 FY21 Revenue 13,548 9,308 17,426 21,182 20,261 49.5 -4.3 63,658 68,176 Expenditure 11,464 8,387 14,073 17,032 16,905 47.5 -0.7 53,048 56,296 Consumption of RM 7,639 5,495 9,968 11,812 11,410 49.4 -3.4 37,258 38,686 as % of sales 56 59 57 56 56 58.5% 56.7% Employee Cost 1,237 1,162 1,141 1,281 1,268 2.5 -1.0 4,525 4,851 as % of sales 9 12 7 6 6 7.1% 7.1% Other expenditure 2,589 1,729 2,965 3,939 4,227 63.3 7.3 11,265 12,759 as % of sales 19 19 17 19 21 17.7% 18.7% EBITDA 2,084 921 3,352 4,150 3,356 61.0 -19.1 10,610 11,880 Depreciation 493 504 537 529 542 9.9 2.5 1,910 2,111 EBIT 1,591 417 2,815 3,621 2,814 76.9 -22.3 8,700 9,768 Other Income 167 78 232 156 150 -9.9 -3.8 685 515 Interest 141 124 109 89 119 -15.2 34.5 470 441 PBT 1,617 372 2,938 3,689 2,845 75.9 -22.9 8,915 9,842 Total Tax 560 176 716 949 748 33.4 -21.2 2,271 2,589 Adjusted PAT 1,057 196 2,221 2,740 2,097 98.5 -23.5 6,644 7,253 Profit/(loss) from JV's/Ass/MI (25) (45) (11) 10 (11) -56.3 -206.9 -83 -56 APAT after MI 1,032 151 2,211 2,750 2,086 102.2 -24.1 6,561 7,197 Extra ordinary items - - - - - 0 0 Reported PAT 1,032 151 2,211 2,750 2,086 102.2 -24.1 6,561 7,197 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 1.1 0.2 2.3 2.8 2.1 102.2 -24.1 6.8 7.4 Margins (%) 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 (bps) (bps) FY20 FY21 Gross Margin 43.6 41.0 42.8 44.2 43.7 10 -50 41.5 43.3 EBIDTA 15.4 9.9 19.2 19.6 16.6 120 -300 16.7 17.4 EBIT 11.7 4.5 16.2 17.1 13.9 210 -320 13.7 14.3 EBT 11.9 4.0 16.9 17.4 14.0 210 -340 14.0 14.4 PAT 7.6 1.6 12.7 13.0 10.3 270 -270 10.3 10.6 Effective Tax rate 34.7 47.4 24.4 25.7 26.3 -840 60 25.5 26.3 Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 9: Revision in earnings estimates FY22E FY23E FY24E Y/E, Mar (Rs.
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