Berger Paints Ltd (Berger)

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Berger Paints Ltd (Berger) NOVEMBER 8, 2019 Result Update BERGER PAINTS LTD (BERGER) Stock Details PRICE RS.507 TARGET RS.400 SELL Market cap (Rs mn) : 492071 52-wk Hi/Lo (Rs) : 534 / 284 Valuations ahead of performance Face Value (Rs) : 1 3M Avg. daily vol (Nos) : 1,937,778 1/Strong volume growth in the decorative segment; 2/ stable volumes in the Shares o/s (mn) : 971 industrial segment; 3/ decrease in realizations leading to weak sales Source: Bloomberg dated 7 Nov 2019 growth; 4/YoY improvement in operating margins with benign raw material Financial Summary situation and 5/ strong earnings growth due to lower ETR, were the Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY19 FY20E FY21E highlights of the results for Berger in Q2FY20. However, the valuations at Revenue 60,618 68,643 76,764 the current price and factoring growth prospects looks stretched. Maintain Growth (%) 17.3 13.2 11.8 SELL with an unchanged TP of Rs 400 at 50x FY21E earnings in line with EBITDA 8,818 10,152 11,525 valuation of larger peers. EBITDA margin (%) 14.5 14.8 15.0 PAT 5,011 6,778 7,807 Key Highlights EPS 5.2 7.0 8.0 EPS Growth (%) 7.7 35.3 15.2 Sales (excluding GST) was reported at Rs 15.99 bn (-6.9% YoY). The BV (Rs/share) 25.8 30.7 36.5 company's decorative sales was impacted due to factors like extended Dividend/share (Rs) 1.8 2.0 2.1 monsoon and floods in many key states ROE (%) 21.4 24.7 23.9 ROCE (%) 29.3 30.0 29.5 Favourable raw material prices and some weakness in the industrial P/E (x) 98.4 72.7 63.1 segment (especially Auto) influenced the Gross margin and EBIDTA margin EV/EBITDA (x) 52.3 45.7 40.5 for the quarter. EBIDTA margin was reported at 15.7% (+220 bps YoY and - P/BV (x) 19.7 16.6 13.9 210 bps QoQ) Source: Company, Kotak Securities - PCG Berger has exercised the option of lower tax rate of 25.2% (inclusive of Shareholding Pattern (%) surcharge and cess) post amendment to Taxation Laws. The full impact of (%) Sep-19 Jun-19 Mar-19 this change has been recognised in tax expense for Q2FY20 and H1FY20. Promoters 75.0 75.0 75.0 FII 6.0 5.1 5.2 Consequently, PAT was reported at Rs 1.94 bn ahead of our expectation of DII 7.4 9.2 9.3 Rs 1.74 bn. YoY PAT figures are not comparable Others 11.6 10.7 10.6 We interpret the numbers as moderate and in line with expectation Source: Bloomberg dated 7 Nov 2019 Price Performance (%) Quarterly Performance (%) 1M 3M 6M Rs mn Q2FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Berger Paints 16.4 45.1 66.3 Net Sales 14900 17165 15986 -6.9 7.3 Nifty 8.0 10.7 4.5 Raw material consumed 9128 10154 9426 -7.2 3.3 Source: Bloomberg dated 7 Nov 2019 Employee cost 1,048 1,116 1,125 0.8 7.3 Price chart (Rs) Other expenditure 2,656 2,843 2,924 2.8 10.1 Total expenditure 12,832 14,113 13,475 -4.5 5.0 550 EBIDTA 2,068 3,052 2,511 -17.7 21.4 450 EBIDTA margin 13.9 17.8 15.7 Depreciation 336 462 472 2.2 40.5 350 EBIT 1,732 2,590 2,039 -21.3 17.7 250 Interest 79 99 104 5.1 31.6 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Other income 120 219 157 -28.3 30.8 Source: Bloomberg dated 7 Nov 2019 PBT 1,773 2,710 2,092 -22.8 18.0 Taxes 597 944 129 -86.3 -78.4 ETR % 33.7 34.8 6.2 Share of Associates/JVs -4 -3 -17 Reported PAT 1,172 1,763 1,946 10.4 66.0 Source: Company Amit Agarwal, CFA [email protected] +91 22 6218 6439 Kotak Securities – Private Client Group Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 17 NOVEMBER 8, 2019 Valuation and Outlook We estimate that branded paint demand will remain robust in a country like India where per capita consumption is very low and 30% paint market is still unorganised. Management of Berger also indicated that the volume trends remain strong for the company and expect the trend to continue in medium term. Berger’s performance has been better than peers and is indicative of continued market share gains. For Berger, now we estimate 10% volume CAGR over FY19- FY21E with improvement in operating margins and ROE of ~23.9% and ROCE of ~29.5% for FY20E. The stock has moved up by more than 40% in the last 6 months and is trading at an exorbitant valuation of 63x FY21E earnings. Consequently, we continue to recommend SELL with a TP of Rs 400 at 50x FY21E earnings in line with valuation accorded to market leader Asian Paints. Sales was driven by all the segments Management indicated the sales performance of Q2FY19 could be attributed to: Decorative segment - The Company reported low double digit volume growth in the decorative segment for Q2FY20. The decorative business constitutes around 80% of Berger’s overall business and typically grows at 1.5x the GDP of the country. During Q2FY20, decorative sales was impacted due to factors like extended monsoon and floods in many key states. Berger is expecting healthy volume growth in the decorative segment on the back of low per-capita consumption in the country, strong urbanization trends, shortening re-painting cycles, up-trading and real estate reforms. Industrial paints segment – In Industrial paints, Berger is primarily present in Automotive coating and Industrial coating. Automotive paints constitute around 10% of the overall revenues of the company. Berger is empaneled with all major automobile companies in the 2 wheeler and 3 wheeler segment. While general industrial coating constitute around 8% of the overall revenues of the company. Management expects general industrial segment to do well in H2FY20 which should boost the overall performance of the company. Main customers for Berger in Industrial segment General Industrial Automotive Construction, Heavy Engineering & Commercial Vehicles: Agricultural Equipment Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Mahindra & Mahindra Electrical Industry: Crompton, Orient, Marathon Electric, Havells, Bajaj Two Wheelers: Hero MotoCorp, Royal Enfield, TVS Motor Co, Bajaj Auto Furniture & Office Equipment Industry Cycle Industry Barrel & Container Industry Source: Company Berger makes a small acquisition in Industrial segment Berger Paints India Ltd will acquire 95.53% of STP Ltd (STPL), for a cash consideration of Rs 1.67 bn. We expect Berger to use internal accruals for the acquisition. STPL is engaged in the manufacture and supply of construction chemicals, concrete admixtures, waterproofing chemicals, flooring compounds, bitumen and coal tar-based products, sealants and adhesives, protective and anti-corrosive coatings. STP Ltd is not listed and had a revenue of Rs 1.74 bn in FY19 implying a deal value of one time price to sales. Deal value of one time Kotak Securities – Private Client Group Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 18 NOVEMBER 8, 2019 P/Sales is attractive. We do not have any other financial details of STPL limited. We estimate the acquisition to strengthen the industrial coating segment for Berger which currently constitute 20% of the total revenues. Berger expects to complete the deal by end of November 2019. We factor revenue of Rs 700 mn in FY20 and Rs 2000 mn from the acquisition. Past Inorganic Growth through Acquisitions ICI Motors JV 50% Automotive and industrial paints Bolix Subsidiary 100% Industrial Saboo Coatings Subsidiary 100% Industrial Sherwin Williams Subsidiary 100% Decorative Source: Company Performance of Subsidiaries during Q2FY20 Berger Paints has a total of 10 subsidiaries contributing about 10% of the overall revenues for Berger – 2 are incorporated in India and 8 internationally. Of these 10 subsidiaries the top 3 in terms of revenue are; Berger Jenson and Nicholson, Nepal (~2% of overall revenues) Bollix, Poland (~4% of overall revenues) BJN paints, India (~2% of overall revenues) Operational performance of subsidiaries was moderate in Q2FY20. However, weak automotive demand has impacted the joint venture with Japan’s Nippon Paint Automotive Coatings. Berger has booked a loss of Rs 17 mn from associates/subsidiaries. Raw Material situation is benign, margins set to improve over FY19 to FY21E Paint Industry uses two key raw material including crude derivatives and Titanium Dioxide. The Paint Industry has been experiencing decline in prices of raw material since the last 2 quarters. Almost ~60% of the raw material are crude derivatives and with crude at $62/barrel (-30% in the last 4 months), prices of crude derivatives have also decreased. Even prices of pigments like Titanium Dioxide, Iron oxide and Zinc oxide have decreased. Benign raw material situation, healthy volume growth in the decorative segment, favourable demographics and GST regime is positive for paint companies. Prices of brent crude (USD/barrel) Prices of Titanium dioxide (USD/MT) 90 200 80 70 175 60 150 50 40 125 30 20 100 Jul-19 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Oct-19 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-16 Source: Bloomberg dated 7 Nov 2019 Source: Bloomberg dated 7 Nov 2019 Kotak Securities – Private Client Group Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 19 NOVEMBER 8, 2019 Paint Industry remains resilient.
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