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The Economics of Petroleum Exploration and Development in China

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The Economics of Petroleum Exploration and Development in China The Economics of Petroleum Exploration and Development in China By Wanwan Hou A thesis submitted to the University of New South Wales in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering January 2009 School of Petroleum Engineering The University of New South Wales Sydney, NSW, Australia ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my sincere thanks to Mr. Guy Allinson from the School of Petroleum Engineering, University of New South Wales, for his excellent advice and enduring guidance. Without his encouragement and support, my research would have been far more difficult. I thank him for making time for me despite his busy schedules. He gave me great help with my language nearly every day during these two years. I also thank him for his patient reading of my write-ups and for giving me opportunities to conduct occasional research work and tutorials. I would like to thank all the people that I met or I contacted in Sinopec, CNOOC and CNPC for their willingness to give me advice and help me understanding various aspects of the petroleum industry in China. I give my deepest thanks to my parents Hongbin Hou and Maolan Fu for their love and support through the years. They encouraged me to come to Australia to undertake this research. They always trust me and understand me even when I doubted myself. I thank my five best friends in China – Jun, Xiaomu, Ying, Xiaoqing and Jiaye for their great support and love through my ups and downs. They were my second family even if I was thousand miles away from them. I also thank my room mate Lin for his patience and help through my difficult times. ABSTRACT The international oil and gas industry views China as a key country in its search for petroleum exploration and development investment opportunities. China offers a range of opportunities – from mature, producing areas to frontier exploration areas. When Oil and gas companies make investment decisions to explore for and develop petroleum resources in a particular country, they need to examine many aspects of that country. The decision to invest focuses on assessments of the likely economic rewards and the risks involved. In this thesis, I attempt to provide a detailed assessment of various factors affecting the economics of petroleum exploration and development in China from an oil and gas investors’ point of view. The thesis is aimed at assisting international oil and gas companies to make investment decisions and assisting their understanding of the petroleum prospects in China. Based on detailed economic modelling, the thesis aims to demonstrate the profitability of exploration and development of a range of hypothetical but representative oil and gas prospects and discoveries in different areas in onshore and offshore China. The thesis also reviews the key fiscal terms in China and shows the economic impact of individual components of Chinese fiscal terms on field developments in China. The thesis quantifies and analyses the impact of Chinese fiscal terms by measuring the Government Take for a range of hypothetical oil field developments. It includes an analysis of the flexibility of the Chinese fiscal terms by quantifying the effect of Government Take on marginal field developments. In addition, the thesis intends to assess the competitiveness of Chinese fiscal regime in terms of its severity and flexibility as compared to other fiscal regimes in the Asia Pacific Region. Contents Page 1 The economics of petroleum exploration and development in China Contents Acknowledgements Abstract Page Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Chapter 2 Summary and Conclusions 2.1 Chapter 3 Methodology and Assumptions 3.1 Methodology 3.1 3.2 Assumptions 3.5 Chapter 4 Geography 4.1 Petroleum activities 4.1 4.2 Climate 4.3 4.3 Topography 4.4 4.4 Rivers 4.6 4.5 Vegetation 4.9 4.6 Population 4.10 Chapter 5 Infrastructure 5.1 The economy 5.1 5.2 The labour market 5.3 5.3 Roads 5.4 5.4 Railways 5.5 5.5 Airports 5.6 5.6 Ports 5.8 5.7 Electricity distribution 5.9 5.8 Telecommunications 5.11 Wanwan Hou January 2009 Contents Page 2 Page 5.9 The oil and gas industry 5.12 5.10 Refineries 5.14 5.11 Pipelines 5.17 5.11.1 Crude oil and petroleum product pipelines 5.18 5.11.2 Gas pipelines 5.21 Chapter 6 Energy Market in China 6.1 Crude Oil 6.5 6.1.1 Crude oil reserves 6.5 6.1.2 Crude oil demand/supply 6.6 6.1.3 Crude oil pricing 6.8 6.2 Petroleum products 6.11 6.2.1 Petroleum product supply 6.11 6.2.2 Petroleum product demand 6.12 6.2.3 Petroleum product pricing 6.13 6.3 Natural gas 6.15 6.3.1 Natural gas resources 6.15 6.3.2 Natural gas supply 6.16 6.3.3 Natural gas demand 6.18 6.3.4 Additional natural gas 6.19 6.3.5 Natural gas pricing 6.25 6.4 Coal 6.28 6.4.1 Coal supply 6.28 6.4.2 Coal demand 6.30 6.5 Electricity 6.31 6.5.1 Electricity supply 6.32 6.5.2 Electricity demand 6.34 Chapter 7 Fiscal Regime 7.1 Structure 7.1 7.2 Simplified illustration of workings of Chinese PSC 7.5 7.3 Components of Chinese PSCs 7.7 Wanwan Hou January 2009 Contents Page 3 Page 7.3.1 Royalty 7.8 7.3.2 Value Added Tax 7.10 7.3.3 Cost Recovery 7.10 7.3.4 Profit Sharing 7.13 7.3.5 State Participation 7.15 7.3.6 Signature Bonus and Submission Fee 7.16 7.3.7 Export Duty 7.16 7.3.8 Revenue Windfall Tax 7.17 7.3.9 Income Tax 7.18 7.4 Worked example of a Chinese PSC 7.19 Chapter 8 Fiscal Analyses 8.1 Government Take 8.1 8.2 Fiscal severity and flexibility 8.2 8.3 Assumptions 8.4 8.3.1 Economic assumptions 8.4 8.3.2 Cost assumptions 8.4 8.3.3 Exploration and development timing 8.6 8.3.4 Fiscal terms 8.6 8.4 Analyses of individual components of Chinese fiscal terms 8.9 8.4.1 Single year analysis 8.9 8.4.2 Effect of changing net cash flow 8.12 8.4.3 Project life analyses for marginal field 8.13 8.4.4 Project life analyses for a range of field sizes 8.15 8.5 Impact of fiscal terms on field development – oil price US$80 per bbl 8.20 8.6 Impact of fiscal terms on field development – oil price US$20 per bbl 8.22 8.7 Analysis of Government Take 8.23 8.8 Analysis of minimum economic field size 8.25 8.9 Comparison of fiscal components 8.26 8.10 Effect of fiscal terms on probabilistic field development decisions 8.27 Wanwan Hou January 2009 Contents Page 4 Page 8.11 Effect of Government Take on basin development 8.30 8.12 Summary and conclusions 8.35 Chapter 9 The Comparison of the Fiscal Terms in the Asia Pacific Region 9.1 Comparison of the fiscal terms 9.1 9.2 Assumptions 9.4 9.2.1 Economic assumptions 9.4 9.2.2 Field development assumptions 9.4 9.3 Fiscal severity 9.5 9.4 Regressive/progressive regimes 9.7 9.5 Fiscal efficiency 9.10 9.6 Summary and conclusions 9.14 Chapter 10 Economics of Exploration 10.1 Objectives 10.1 10.2 Cases 10.1 10.3 Approach 10.2 10.4 Assumptions 10.3 10.4.1 Economic assumptions 10.3 10.4.2 Cost assumptions 10.3 10.4.3 Sensitivity assumptions 10.6 10.4.4 Market assumptions 10.7 10.4.5 Exploration and development assumptions 10.7 10.5 Net present value per barrel or per thousand cubic feet graphs 10.11 10.6 Minimum prospect reserves graphs 10.13 10.7 Offshore shallow water China – Bohai Gulf - Oil field exploration and development economics 10.16 10.8 Onshore east China – Bohai Bay Basin - Oil field exploration and development economics 10.21 10.9 Offshore shallow water China – South China Sea - Gas field exploration and development economics 10.26 Wanwan Hou January 2009 Contents Page 5 Page 10.10 Onshore west China – Tarim Basin - Gas field exploration and development economics 10.31 10.11 Summary and conclusions 10.36 Chapter 11 Recommendations 11.1 Appendix A – Conversion factors A.1 Appendix B – Abbreviations B.1 Appendix C – Reserves definitions C.1 Appendix D – Fiscal terms in the Asia Pacific Region D.1 Appendix E – Provisions Concerning the Payment of Royalties for the Exploitation of Offshore Petroleum Resources in China E.1 Appendix F – Measures for the Administration of the Collection of Special Petroleum Proceeds F.1 Appendix G – Enterprise Income Tax Law of the People's Republic of China G.1 References H.1 Wanwan Hou January 2009 Contents Page 6 The economics of petroleum exploration and development in China Contents List of figures Figure Page 3.1 Example oil project net cash flow profile 3.2 3.2 Historical oil prices 3.6 4.1Location map of China 4.2 4.2 Major rivers in China 4.8 5.1 China’s GDP growth rate 5.1 5.2 China’s inflation rate 5.3 5.3China railway map 5.6 5.4 Major airports in China 5.8 5.5Major ports in China 5.10 6.1 China's energy flow chart for 2005 6.1 6.2 Changes in government organisations 6.4 6.3 Chinese crude oil reserves 6.6 6.4 Production and consumption of crude oil in china 6.8 6.5 Crude oil benchmark prices 6.10 6.6 Petroleum product production 6.12 6.7 Natural gas reserves in China 6.16 6.8 Gas production in 2005 6.18 6.9 Natural gas supply and demand 6.20 6.10 CBM contract areas by company 6.24 6.11 Coal production 6.29 6.12 China’s electricity output 6.33 7.1 Structure of Chinese PSC 7.4 8.1 Definition of regressive / progressive 8.3 8.2Definition of efficiency 8.4 8.3 Single year fiscal analysis 8.10 Wanwan Hou January 2009 Contents Page 7 Figure Page 8.4 Economic effects of components of Government Take 8.12 – single year analyses 8.5 Economic effects of components of Government Take 8.16 – project life analyses 8.6 Economic effects of Royalty – oil price US$60 /bbl 8.17 8.7 Economic effects of Profit Sharing – oil price US$60 /bbl 8.18 8.8 Economic effects of Export Duty – oil price US$60 /bbl 8.18 8.9 Economic effects of Revenue Windfall Tax – oil price US$60 /bbl 8.19 8.10 Economic effects of Income Tax with
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