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SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA Commercial Real Estate 2019 Forecast Agenda

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SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA Commercial Real Estate 2019 Forecast Agenda SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA Commercial Real Estate 2019 Forecast Agenda US & Bay Area Economic Trends Tech Sector Job Growth Population Growth Office Market Trends Multifamily Market Trends Conclusions / Forecast Economic Trends & Outlook US Real GDP: Percent Change from preceding quarter 8% 6% 4.2% 4% 3.4% 2.4% 2% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics Corporate Profits: After Tax $Billions $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 National Job Growth is Steady Employment Growth (Y/Y) 6% 4% 2% 0% (2%) (4%) (6%) (8%) 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Moody's Analytics Job Growth Has Already Slowed in San Francisco San Francisco United States Employment Growth (Y/Y) 6% 4% 2% 0% (2%) (4%) (6%) (8%) 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Moody's Analytics * Year-to-Date 2019 Forecast: Slower Growth San Francisco United States Employment Growth (Y/Y) 6% Forecast 4% 2% 0% (2%) (4%) (6%) (8%) 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Moody's Analytics * Year-to-Date Job Growth Forecast San Francisco East Bay San Jose 6% Forecast 4% 2% 0% (2%) (4%) (6%) (8%) (10%) 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Total Nonfarm Employment Growth Percentage, Year-Over-Year Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics Unemployment Rates San Francisco East Bay San Jose 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics Tech Economic Indicators Software Sales E-Commerce Sales % of Retail Sales $500 $140 $123B 10% $120 $400 $381B 8% Billions Billions $100 $300 $80 6% $200 $60 4% $40 $100 2% $20 $0 $0 0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 HY 2018 $49.5B Bay Area Venture Capital Investment Internet Advertising Revenue 23% Growth $100 $50 50% $88B $80 $40 40% Billions Billions $60 $30 30% San Jose $40 $20 20% San Francisco $20 $10 10% $0 $0 0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1718f 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Sources: US Census, Federal Reserve Bank, Interactive Advertising Bureau, PwC MoneyTree Report Tech Boosting San Francisco Job Growth 140% 120% 119% Tech 100% 80% 60% 40% Office-Using 40% 54% Construction 31% Total Jobs 20% 22% Financial Activities 19% Health Care 6% Legal Services 0% -20% 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Cumulative Job Growth since 2009 San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA Metropolitan Division Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Current Employment Statistics (CES), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Moody's Analytics Estimated East Bay Tech Employment Growth Lagging 140% 120% 118% San Francisco 100% 80% 60% 46% San Jose 40% 28% East Bay 20% 19% U.S. 0% -20% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cumulative Job Growth since 2009 San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA Metropolitan Division Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Current Employment Statistics (CES), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Moody's Analytics Estimated % of Tech Employment by Market 30% 28% San Jose 25% 20% 17% San Francisco 15% 10% 9% East Bay 5% 5% U.S. 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cumulative Job Growth since 2009 San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA Metropolitan Division Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Current Employment Statistics (CES), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Moody's Analytics Estimated NASDAQ Index Company % of Index Headquarters 9,000 1 Google 11.5% Mountain View 2 Apple 7.3% Cupertino 8,000 3 Microsoft 5.0% Seattle, Charlotte, Mountain View 4 Facebook 4.5% Menlo Park 7,000 5 Amazon.com 4.3% Seattle, SF, Sunnyvale, Palo Alto 6 Comcast Corporation 1.7% Philadelphia 7 Intel Corporation 1.5% Santa Clara 6,000 8 Cisco Systems 1.4% San Jose 9 Amgen 1.1% South San Francisco 5,000 10 Celgene Corporation 1.0% San Francisco 11 The Kraft Heinz Company 0.9% Chicago, Pittsburg 12 Broadcom Limited 0.9% San Jose, Singapore 4,000 13 NVIDIA Corporation 0.9% Santa Clara 14 The Priceline Group 0.9% Norwalk, CT 3,000 15 Charter Communications 0.9% Stamford, CT 16 Gilead Sciences 0.9% Foster City 2,000 17 Walgreens Boots Alliance 0.8% Chicago 18 Texas Instruments 0.7% Dallas 19 Starbucks 0.7% Seattle 1,000 20 Netflix 0.7% Los Gatos 21 QUALCOMM 0.7% San Diego 0 22 Adobe Systems 0.7% San Jose 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 23 PayPal Holdings 0.6% San Jose 50% NASDAQ Index Recoupling to SF Office Rents Company % of Index Headquarters 9,000 $120 1 Google 11.5% Mountain View 2 Apple 7.3% Cupertino 8,000 3 Microsoft 5.0% Seattle, Charlotte, Mountain View $100 4 Facebook 4.5% Menlo Park 7,000 5 Amazon.com 4.3% Seattle, SF, Sunnyvale, Palo Alto 6,635 6 Comcast Corporation 1.7% Philadelphia 7 Intel Corporation 1.5% Santa Clara 6,000 $80 5,132 8 Cisco Systems 1.4% San Jose $72 $70 9 Amgen 1.1% South San Francisco 5,000 10 Celgene Corporation 1.0% San Francisco $60 11 The Kraft Heinz Company 0.9% Chicago, Pittsburg Asking Rents 12 Broadcom Limited 0.9% San Jose, Singapore 4&5 Star 4,000 13 NVIDIA Corporation 0.9% Santa Clara 14 The Priceline Group 0.9% Norwalk, CT 3,000 $40 15 Charter Communications 0.9% Stamford, CT 16 Gilead Sciences 0.9% Foster City 2,000 17 Walgreens Boots Alliance 0.8% Chicago 18 Texas Instruments 0.7% Dallas $20 19 Starbucks 0.7% Seattle 1,000 20 Netflix 0.7% Los Gatos 21 QUALCOMM 0.7% San Diego Rents lagged 6 months 0 $0 22 Adobe Systems 0.7% San Jose 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 23 PayPal Holdings 0.6% San Jose 50% Office Market Fundamentals Bay Area Metropolitan Divisions 17,000 East Bay Office Properties San Francisco 443 Million Square Feet San Jose CoStar Research Full-time Researchers 90+ Market Analysts & Economists Bay Area Research & Analytics Team MARKET ANALYTICS FIELD RESEARCH Jesse Gundersheim Marco Cugia David Ben Evan Temchin Market Economist Senior Market Analyst Field Research Manager Research Photographer I Anita Shin George Chao Research Photographer II Research Photographer II CLIENT RELATIONSHIP Christopher Lau John Bolling Jim Gordon Hubert Smith Research Photographer II Research Photographer II Senior Relationship Manager National Accounts David McClure Teague Haines Research Photographer I Research Photographer I Dylan Bloodworth Client Relationship Manager PROPERTY RESEARCH COMPS RESEARCH Espie Tuthill Sean Goldberg Research Manager Comps Research Manager Bryan McSweeney Lina Collier Adrian Robles Jon Murphy Research Associate I Senior Research Associate Senior Research Associate Certified Research Analyst Cat Pierce Natalie Rosenblum David Boetsch Jonelle Lenz Research Associate I Research Associate I Research Associate I Research Associate II David Whitmore Nick Bell Greer Pruitt Noel Bigay Certified Research Analyst Senior Research Associate Senior Research Associate Research Associate II Eric Kies Shannon Murphy John Lucero Oscar Martinez Certified Research Analyst Research Associate II Research Associate II Research Associate I Grace Otoya Vicki Sevel John Bray Susan Tysma Research Associate II Senior Research Associate Research Associate I Research Associate II Up-To-Date, Verified Data SOURCE DAILY MONTHLY Research Calls 47,000 1,141,000 Secret Shopping Calls 28,000 833,000 Apartment Availability 860,000 - Property Update Feeds 75,000 2,250,000 Scrapes 30,000 900,000 Updated Listings 65,000 1,950,000 Field Research Vehicles GROUND RESEARCH 190+ Vehicles Field Research Vehicles AERIAL RESEARCH $3M Investment Costar: Largest Database of Active Listings & Comps ACTIVE LISTINGS SALES COMPS LEASE COMPS T E N A N T S PROPERTIES MULTIFAMILY P R O F I L E D TRACKED PROPERTIES Largest 3Q 2018 Leases Sign Month Tenant SF Address City Submarket July Roku 455,000 Coleman Highline San Jose San Jose Airport September Splunk 286,000 700 Santana Row San Jose San Jose, Winchester September Twilio 259,000 101 Spear St San Francisco South Financial District September Nokia Corp 230,000 520 Almanor Ave Sunnyvale Peery Park August PricewaterhouseCoopers 196,000 405 Howard St San Francisco South Financial District September Singularity University 150,000 2831 Mission College Blvd Santa Clara Mission College Area August Amazon 143,000 525 Market St San Francisco South Financial District August Ancestry 127,000 153 Townsend St San Francisco Rincon/South Beach October TBD 120,000 3223 Hanover Dr Palo Alto Palo Alto South August 23andme 105,000 221 Mathilda Ave N Sunnyvale Peery Park July Splunk 100,000 250 Brannan St San Francisco Rincon/South Beach August SoFi 99,000 246 1st St San Francisco South Financial District August Unity Technologies 99,000 657 Mission St San Francisco South Financial District July VMware 85,000 3421 Hillview Ave Palo Alto Palo Alto South July Spaces 78,000 345 Montgomery St San Francisco Financial District September Amazon Web Services 75,000 20400 Stevens Creek Blvd Cupertino Cupertino August TBD 73,000 One Sybase Dr Dublin Dublin July WeWork 71,000 333 San Carlos St W San Jose Downtown San Jose West Largest 4Q 2018 Leases Sign Month Tenant SF Address City Submarket November Salesforce 325,000 550 Howard St San Francisco South Financial District November Google 310,000 1 Market St San Francisco South Financial District October Facebook 244,000 311 Airport Blvd Burlingame Burlingame-Airport Blvd October Facebook 215,000 333 Airport
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