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Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus (PDF) Section 5 Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus regard to living standards, such as a slump in real 1 Russia income. (1) Situation in Russia A Internal Situation in Russia C Russian Diplomacy President Putin’s approval rating, which fell in Sanctions on Russia continue to be maintained 2018 to the level before the 2014 “annexation” by European countries and the U.S. despite occa- of Crimea (in the 60% range), remained at largely sional bilateral contacts between Russia and the same in 2019 with no significant recovery. these countries, such as at the summit and foreign While strengthening the Government’s base of ministerial levels. support became an issue for the Government, in Particularly on Russia’s relationship with the August, there were sporadic and relatively large- U.S., the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces scale protests, particularly in large cities, over the (INF) Treaty was terminated in August, and an disqualification of opposition candidates for the extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Moscow City Duma elections in September. The Treaty (New START) is still undetermined. The protests drew approximately 50,000 people, and gulf remains wide between the positions of the the scale was the largest in recent years. two countries on desired formats of a future framework of arms control as well as on interna- B Russian Economy tional situations such as Ukraine and Venezuela, The Russian economy, which had been sluggish and signs of improved relations are yet to be seen. since 2014, turned to positive growth in 2016 and Exchanges between leaders of Russia and continued to grow in 2019, although the growth China continued, and in June Russia had a state rate slowed compared to the previous year (pre- visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to celebrate liminary 2019 figure: 1.3% (Russian Federal State the 70th anniversary of the establishment of dip- Statistic Service)). In addition, other major mac- lomatic relations. In addition, in July there were roeconomic indicators remained generally stable. also movements by Russia appealing for closer However, some factors for economic instability military cooperation with China, such as the first remain, such as the continued sanctions on Russia joint patrol flight by Russian and Chinese bombers by European countries and the U.S., and trends in from the Sea of Japan to the East China Sea, and crude oil prices in international markets. There is on the same day a Russian Airborne Warning and also dissatisfaction amongst the general public in Control System (AWACS) aircraft violated the 134 DIPLOMATIC BLUEBOOK 2020 E_外交青書 2020_2-5.indd 134 2020/10/13 10:58:27 Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus Section 5 airspace above Japan’s territorial waters around Takeshima in Shimane Prefecture. In the Middle East and Africa, Russia actively engaged in diplomacy, exerting its influence on the Syrian situation by intervening between Chapter 2 related countries, such as Syria and Turkey, and holding the First Russia-Africa Summit in October. Russia has also shown a strong presence in its traditional cooperative relationship with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and in multilateral frameworks including the BRICS Japan-Russia Summit Meeting (September 5, Vladivostok, Russia; Photo: Cabinet Public Relations Office) countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). attribution of the Four Northern Islands.1 The two leaders share the view that it is an (2) Japan-Russia Relations abnormal state of affairs that a peace treaty has A Japan-Russia Relations in the Asia-Pacific not been concluded between Japan and Russia Region more than 70 years since the end of World War Bilateral relations between Japan and Russia II. At the Japan-Russia Summit Meeting held in have the greatest underlying potential. In recent Nagato City, Yamaguchi Prefecture, at the end years, Russia has placed importance on the devel- of 2016, Prime Minister Abe and President Putin opment of the Russian Far East and East Siberia declared an earnest determination toward resolv- and has been proactively enhancing relations with ing the issue of a peace treaty. the countries in the Asia-Pacific region that are a In 2019, active political dialogues took place, growth center of the global economy. The devel- including three Summit Meetings and seven opment of relations with Russia as an important Foreign Ministers’ Meetings. At the Japan-Russia partner in the Asia-Pacific region, the building of Summit Meeting in June in Osaka, Prime Minister stable relations, and the deepening of cooperation Abe and President Putin shared the view that they contribute not only to Japan’s national interests would continue to advance the negotiations under but are also extremely important for regional sta- their determination to“accelerate negotiations on bility and development. a peace treaty on the basis of the Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration of 1956” as announced by B The Northern Territories and Negotiations both sides in Singapore in November 2018. At on Peace Treaty the Japan-Russia Summit Meeting in Vladivostok The greatest concern between Japan and in September, the two leaders had a candid and Russia is the Northern Territories issue. The open exchange of views on the issue of conclud- Northern Territories are islands over which Japan ing a peace treaty and reconfirmed to work in has sovereignty. Holding frequent dialogues a future-oriented manner. The two leaders also between the two leaders and Foreign Ministers, reiterated instructions to their respective foreign the Government of Japan has been energetically ministers, who are responsible for the negoti- continuing negotiations with Russia to conclude a ations, to advance joint work in order to find a peace treaty through the resolution of the issue of mutually acceptable solution. 1 Please refer to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ website for the Japanese government’s position regarding the Northern Territories issue: https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/russia/territory/overview.html DIPLOMATIC BLUEBOOK 2020 135 E_外交青書 2020_2-5.indd 135 2020/10/13 10:58:29 Chapter 2 Japan’s Foreign Policy that Takes a Panoramic Perspective of the World Map In response to this, Foreign Minister Motegi as part of humanitarian measures for the former and Foreign Minister Lavrov held the Japan- island residents of the Northern Territories, a Russia Foreign Ministers’ Meetings in New York temporary additional entry/exit point was estab- and Nagoya in September and November respec- lished on the occasion of the grave visit by ship tively, and exchanged views on how to proceed to the Habomai Islands and Shikotan Island, and with the consultations, including the negotiations furthermore, in August a grave visit by airplane on a peace treaty. Moreover, at the Japan- was realized for a third year in a row. Such mea- Russia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Moscow in sures have shortened the travel time to the Four December, the two Foreign Ministers held dis- Northern Islands and reduced the physical burden cussions at length and were able to commence of the former island residents. During the grave full-fledged consultations. visits, the former island residents were able to visit Regarding the joint economic activities on the places they had been unable to go to in recent Four Northern Islands on which the leaders agreed years, and Japan and Russia shared the view to begin negotiations during President Putin’s visit to continue to simplify the relevant procedures. to Japan at the end of 2016,2 a series of discus- Under the strong leadership of the Japanese and sions have been held not only between the leaders Russian leaders, the Government of Japan will and Foreign Ministers, but also at vice-ministerial continue to persistently negotiate with Russia to consultations and director-general-level working conclude a peace treaty by resolving the issue of groups. At the Japan-Russia Summit Meeting in attribution of the Four Northern Islands. June, the two leaders agreed on the two“business In addition, the Government of Japan is models” for“tourism” and“waste management.” approaching and coordinating with the Russian Waste-management experts from both sides vis- side in order to ensure safe operations of Japanese ited the main island of Hokkaido and the four fishing vessels around the Four Northern Islands islands in August and September, and the first and to continue the fishing of salmon and trout pilot tour joined by Japanese tourists was con- using alternative fishing methods to driftnet fishing ducted from October to November. prohibited by Russia. At the same time, Japan is The Government of Japan is actively working taking appropriate actions against Russia’s moves on projects contributing to the improvement of to build up military forces in the Four Northern the atmosphere for the resolution of the Northern Islands, on the grounds that such moves are con- Territories issue, such as the four-island exchange tradictory to the Government of Japan’s position program, free visits, and visits to graves. In July, regarding the territorial issue. C Japan-Russia Economic Relations The Japan-Russia trade volume in 2019 decreased from January to December year-on- year due to a decrease in the import value of energy and mineral resources, major commodities imported to Japan from Russia (January-December 2019 statistics: approximately 2.3459 trillion yen, down approximately 7.2% year-on-year) (Source: Sightseeing pilot tour (October 31, Kunashiri Island; Photo: World Air-Sea Service) Trade Statistics of Japan, Ministry of Finance). 2 As a result of the Japan-Russia Summit Meeting in December 2016, the two leaders expressed their sincere determination to resolve the peace treaty issue, agreed to commence discussions on joint economic activities on the Four Northern Islands, and agreed to improve procedures for grave visits by former island residents. 136 DIPLOMATIC BLUEBOOK 2020 E_外交青書 2020_2-5.indd 136 2020/10/13 10:58:30 Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus Section 5 further support these positive trends toward more concrete cooperation between Japanese and Russian companies.
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