20 - MANCHESTER HERALD. Tues., Nov. 9, 1982 - After the rally, is it too late to buy stocks? M ine workers Pulitzer divorce Teacher looks Reserve’s big infusion of capital into the system in newsletters, Granville’s stock selections (all short OK, let's say you missed all or part of that spec­ August in the wake of the Mexican debt-payment crisis sales) were battered for a wicked loss of nearly 22 per­ trial now over at schooilunch tacular market rally in which the Dow — in just a little and the Penn Square Bank fiasco. cent last month. In the same period, the leading market elect Trumka over 11 weeks— shot up over 275 points to record levels. “The Fed panicked, interest rates dropped and a stock averages were up around U percent. Is it too late to buy? One parting thought from a pro who’s taken quite a ... page 13 market that was going over the edge in a matter of dajrs - ••• 5 ... page 8 Equally important at this stage of the game: Which Dan Dorfman suddenly turned around,” Campbell told me. beating inhthe recent rally (because of heavy short are the stocks the institutional biggies want the m ost.. Sdl6S)< and the least? Syndicated HE WENT ON TO SAY that "the whole rally is Markets, he says, are not always right. He points, for And what about some of the bears who were dead based on a house of cards” — that "we’re not out of the example, to the sharp run-up in gold a few years back to wrong in their market judgment? What do they think Columnist woods economically and we’re not going to solve the around $870 an ounce. The reason for the surge: the now? ' (debt) problems of Mexico, Brazil, Poland, or you name belief we’re in for hyper-inflation. Instead, the inflation For starters, it’s worth noting the market’s diverse the country, overnight.” rate later fell sharply. Another glowing example: The reaction to that incredible post-election explosion last However, the strength of the market is such that the ’73 run-up in the Dow to over 1,000 on expectations of Cloudy tonight; Manchester, Conn. Wednesday in which the Dow ballooned over 43 points. advisory firm is not nearly as bearish as in the past. Its healthy economic growth. But in ’74 and '75, the latest reading: The market’s in a topping process that Wednesday, Nov. 10; 1982 The overriding view is that the big run-up came about economic, recovery in ’83. economy fell out of bed. not as col<l . because the Republicans avoided the bloodbath that should take the Dow down to around 900 between mid- Our wounded pro, therefore, may be making a telling 25 Cents Rogers, essentially a long-term investor, is gung-ho December and early January. — See page 2 some political pundits were predicting. Accordingly, the on the mobile home stocks — specifically on those in­ point when he says: “The market’s gone up on expec­ pros conclude that the masses are still buying As Campbell sees it, if the Dow, at around Christ­ volved in manufactured housing. The era of the stick- tations, not reality . and you can only live just so long anrlf^atrr iUrralb Reaganomics — which apparently suggests the mastime, has managed to hold pbove its August ’82 low on expectations.” built house is over because it’s too costly, he says. His of around 780, that would signal another big leg upward prospects of fath er market gains in the face of a top choice: Oakwood Homes. He also likes Skyline, growing perceifion of a gradually improving economy. of at least 100 to 150 points. On the other hand, he says a Inside the Institutional biggies: Fleetwood Enterprises and Mobile Home Industries. DoW closing at that time of below 780 would mean the October’s top purchases and sales ON THE OTHER HAND, a few analysts credited bull market is over. MOTOR HOMES ARE ALSO favored by our SALES the rise to the Democratic gains in Congress. “That market whiz because of lower gas prices and an im­ One of the worst market calls ever in this column PURCHASES means.” says one of them, “that we’ll re-inflate, spend Evans Products proving economy. And here he likes Winnebago In­ came at the end of September. Based on planetary 1. ’ General Motors more money and the economy will get better." Minn. Mining & Mfg. dustries. with Fleetwood also a participant. patterns, it called for a 300-point drop in the Dow in Oc­ 2. IBM Maybe one Wall Street trader summed it up best. PepsiO) Citizens & Southern Bank of Georgia, described as a tober to around the 600-620 range. Obviously the planets 3. Tandy “You don't confuse brains with a bull market,” he says; 4. Tandem Computer Interfirst Corp. GOP directors: stop paramedics fast-growing, turnaround situation, is another Rogers flashed a bum reading. “you just buy, sit back and enjoy." The fella who made that forecast. Arch Crawford, 5. Pfizer . Delta Air Lines Forecasts of a pullback in the Dow to perhaps the 940- favorite. Carolina Pwr. & Lgt. didn’t reflect a desire to kill the Other stocks he likes are Tampax and Banc One, 'an who puts out an investment newsletter called Crawford 6. Amer. Tel. & Tel. offer for the program. They Implied, D em ocrat Director Arnold for another look at the program 980 range are conspicuous. But these are being heralded Texas Instruments By Richard Cody paramedics program. They said the Ohio bank holding company (both of which he's owned Perspectives, has thrown in the towel. He says the 7. General Electric however, that the program may be "Ike” Kleinschmidt as one that were certain contractUral for the most part as little more than the normal correc­ Norfolk Southern for a while and bought more of last week), J.P. Stevens, planetary cycles — plus this technical indicators — have . 8. Gould Herald Reporter Demos: QOP more ^ficiently run out of would not cost taxpayers more than arrangements being developed, and refereridum clearly showed that tions one might expect in an ongoing bull market. The Aetnal Life 'residents want one. They said they Farah Manufacturing Co., Sterling Drug, A.H. Robins, now turned bullish. 9. Amer. Inti, Group Manchester Memorial Hospital a $6 fee and would be run out of the that added surcharge. They said the general view is that the likelihood of a further decline in Crum & Forster The Republican minority on the support it, and are not worried that Northern Indiana Public Seryice, Virginia Electric, and 10. Intel playing politics rather than the town of Manchester hospital. pending contracts, which will be interest rates, coupled with the prospects of increased NO INVESTMENT ADVISER stands out more as a Houston Industries Board of Directors Monday un­ two low-priced speculations — Lifetime Communities 11. Emerson Electric Fire Department. He said the way the program is coming up for approval at the direc­ it will cost money. capitulation by the short sellers (the fellas betting on loser these days than Joe “I’m the greatest” (maybe it 12. GTE R.H. Macy expectedly called for a bait to work — See page 8 now being developi^, users of it will tors meeting next Thursday, also DiRosa this morning said it’s not lower stock prices), adds up to still more market sizzle. and Restaurant Associates. should be Joe “I’m the worst” ) Granville. The man who Amer. Home Prod. the fact that the program may cost On the bearish side. I zeroed in on a couple of invest­ 13. Hosp. Corp. of Amer on the developing paramedics The Board of Directors asked be paying a fee of about $120, made caused some pressure leading to As sucti. predictions of a 1,150 and 1,200 Dow in '83 are has repeatedly declared, "I’ll get you in at the bottom 14. Monsanto Tex. Com. Bksh. program. Assistant Health Director Ronald up of the regular $96 fee for the am­ their call for/hraking the program. more than raw ambulance service all over the place. ment advisers who've made abysmal market forecasts and out at the top” remains steadfastly bearish. I American Standard now costs, but that the surcharge 15. Pac. Gas & Elec. Presenting a unified front at an Kraatz to come up with an alter­ bulance service and an added sur­ The town budgeted $185,(X)0 for the If you believe that, what stocks do you buy? in this very column. couldn’t catch up with Joe, but his latest newsletter con­ Continental 111. 16. Raytheon afternoon press conference, they native to the hospital-based charge of between $27 and $33 for program, and is expecteid that the raised questions in his mind and One significant clue — keeping in mind the sharp price One was Kirkpatrick Campbell & Eaton of dollars. They said it may not tinues — as it has since January of ’81 — to recommend 17 Fannie Mae Phillips Petro. said they want to re-evaluate the paramedics program originally en­ the paramedics. medical service will be im­ brought about his wish to see the advances that have already taken place — is the buying Portsmouth. N.H.. which caters to about 150 leading in- • Dresser Ind. provide the best coverage. the sale of all stocks. 18 Sterling Drug program because it no longer visioned by the Emergency M ^ical This fee, to be paid by the user of plemented by the middle of next program “run more smoothly.” activity of the big institutional investors.