Fews Net Famine Early Warning Systems Network
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FEWS NET FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Global Weather Hazards Summary July 4-10, 2014 Heavy rains in West Africa and Guatemala, with dryness in Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua Africa Weather Hazards Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Seasonally Dry 1. Heavy and above- average rains since the beginning of June have 1 led to oversaturated ground conditions in Sierra Leone, Liberia, southern Guinea, and western Cote D’Ivoire. The heavy downpours forecast during the next week will increase the risk of new flooding across the region. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424. Weather Hazards Summary July 4-10, 2014 Latin America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards 1. While rains have recently increased over some abnormally dry parts of Hispaniola, southern 1 1 areas remain dry. Long-term moisture deficits due to poor rainfall since the beginning of the year may harm ground conditions across parts of southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Flooding 2 3 Abnormal Dryness Republic. Drought Severe Drought 2. Above-average rains over the past month have No4 Hazards Tropical Cyclone led to high moisture surpluses across much of Guatemala. Posted for Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy rains have already caused landslides, flooding, and high river levels Central America Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold throughout Guatemala. Torrential rains are forecast for western Guatemala Abnormal Heat next week, maintaining elevated risks for localized flooding and landslides. 3. Poorly distributed rainfall since early March has led to growing moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions in several departments of southern Honduras and northern and west-central Nicaragua. Cropping activities could be negatively impacted if rains remain below average. 4. Extended dry spells and below-average rains have led to substantial seasonal rainfall deficits and Source: FEWS NET/NOAA poor ground conditions in southern Honduras and the Chinandega, Madriz, Nueva Segovia, and Estelí Departments of northern Nicaragua. Drought conditions have reduced crop yields and the probability of crop damage and losses is very high. Central Asia Weather Hazards 1. Poorly distributed rainfall since May has led to Flooding strengthening moisture deficits, and likely low Abnormal Dryness soil moisture in the region. The little to no rainfall Drought forecast for northwestern Kazakhstan is expected Severe Drought to sustain these abnormally dry conditions. Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Temperatures Abnormal Cold Temperatures generally ranged in the lower 30’s Abnormal Heat throughout Kazakhstan, with temperatures breaking 40°C across Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. While temperatures were more seasonal in the south, temperatures were 1-4°C above average throughout much of Kazakhstan. Next week, abnormally high maximum temperatures above 35°C are forecast for western Kazakhstan, which is also expected to remain unfavorable for dry conditions developing in some western provinces. Precipitation Source: FEWS NET/NOAA On June 6, heavy rainfall (more than 50 mm in localized areas) triggered flash flooding in northern Afghanistan. However, the threat for additional flash flooding is expected to decrease as seasonal dryness begins later this month. Satellite rainfall estimates show a mostly seasonable distribution of rain during the last week. The highest weekly rainfall accumulations (10-25 mm) were received throughout Kyrgyzstan and northern Kazakhstan. During the last 30 days, both satellite rainfall estimates and in-situ gauge reports suggest developing dryness across parts of southeastern and northern Kazakhstan, as well as northern Kyrgyzstan. Forecasts suggest continued favorable rainfall over many abnormally dry areas, but there is a slight chance for reduced rainfall (5-15 mm) in northern Kazakhstan during the next week. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 Weather Hazards Summary July 4-10, 2014 Locally heavy rain observed across West Africa. Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) Africa Valid: June 25 – July 1, 2014 Locally heavy rain observed across West Africa. Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) During the previous seven days, most of West Africa observed at Valid: June 25 – July 1, 2014 Locally heavyLocally rain heavy observed rain observed across across West West Africa. Africa Figure 1: Satellite-EstimatedSatellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) leastDuring moderate the previous rainfall seven (15-40mm). days, most Locally of Westheavy Africa amounts observed of rain at Valid: June 25-July 1, 2014Valid: June 25 – July 1, 2014 Last week, moderate rains (15-40 mm) fell across most (>50mm)least moderate, though, rainfall were (15recorded-40mm). across Locally southe heavyrn amountsMali, Nigeria, of rain coastalDuring Cotethe previousof D’Ivoire, West Africa. seven coastal Locally days, Ghana, heavy most amounts Liberia,of West of SierraAfrica rain (>50 observedLeone mm) and at least(>50mm) moderate, though, rainfall were (15 recorded-40mm). acrossLocally southeheavy rnamounts Mali, Nigeria, of rain Guinea.coastal TorrentialCotewere D’Ivoire, recorded rains coastal acrossin Ibadan, Ghana,southern Nigeria Liberia,Mali, Nigeria, resulted Sierra coastal Leone in Côteflash and flooding(>50mm) which, though,d’Ivoire, destroyed werecoastal recorded Ghana,local Liberia,infrastructure across Sierra southe Leone, andrn Mali, andcaused Guinea. 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Chad have Figure 1: NOAA/CPC lack of rainsdeficits helped in toNigeria increase and Chad, rainfall with deficitssome areas in inNigeria northern and received insufficientNigeria and rainfall western during Chad havingthe past received two to insufficient five weeks. rainfall Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (%Source:) NOAA/CPC OverChad the as pastsome thirty areas days, in northern rains acrossNigeria West and westernAfrica have Chad been have Figure 1: NOAA/CPCValid: June 2 – July 1, 2014 received insufficientduring the rainfall past 2-5 during weeks. the past two to five weeks. Figure 2: Satellite-EstimatedSatellite Estimated Rainfall Rainfall Anomaly Anomaly (%) (%) enhancedOver the inpast the thirtyfar west days, and rains below across-average West in Nigeria.Africa have Positive been Valid: June 2-July 1, 2014Valid: June 2 – July 1, 2014 rainfall anomalies (150-400% above-average) have been Satellite Estimated