Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, January 9

Headlines:  Likud Gaining, Receives 25 Seats Versus 24 for Herzog/Livni  Kahlon's New Party Recruits Former General Yoav Galant  Netanyahu to French Amb.: First Rule in Fighting Terror Is Not to be Afraid  Gunmen Kill 2, Take Others Hostage at Paris Kosher Supermarket  PA: No Reconstruction Until We Get Control of Gaza  Poll: Most Palestinians Believe Israel Wants to Destroy Al-Aqsa  Egypt Moves to Eradicate Town Near Gaza Strip  ‘Al Qaeda in Syria Planning Mass Attacks on West’

Commentary:  Ha’aretz: “Former PM Ehud Barak: “Netanyahu Leading Israel to Disaster”  By Gidi Weitz  Al-Monitor: “Palestinian Officials Give Contradictory Media Statements”  By Daoud Kuttab

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Nathaniel Sobel, Associate Editor

News Excerpts January 9, 2015 Ma’ariv Likud Gaining, Receives 25 Seats Versus 24 for Zionist Camp The Likud is enjoying the effect of its primary. A poll conducted last Wednesday for Ma’ariv and Walla News indicates that the Likud headed by Binyamin Netanyahu is now the leading list with 25 seats versus 24 seats for the Zionist Camp (Labor and Hatnua) headed by Yitzhak (Buji) Herzog and Tzipi Livni. Q: If elections were held today, for which party would you vote? Likud: 25; Zionist Camp: 24; Jewish Home: 15; United Arab party: 11; Kulanu: 10; Yesh Atid: 9; UTJ: 8; Shas: 6; Meretz: 6; Yisrael Beiteinu: 6 See also, “Voter dissatisfaction leaves Netanyahu under threat from left,” (Financial Times)

Ha’aretz Kahlon's New Party Recruits Former General Yoav Galant Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yoav Galant, a former candidate to lead the Israel Defense Forces, will be number-two on the ticket of the new Kulanu party, its chief Moshe Kahlon announced Thursday. At the press conference at Kfar Maccabiah near Tel Aviv, Kahlon said that if people were wondering what Galant, whom he called “a hero of Israel,” was doing in a party that focuses on socioeconomic issues, “the answer is simple: We both believe with all our years that without internal strength there can be no national strength.” Galant said that as a person who had grown up under simple conditions and who had commanded soldiers from all walks of life, it was “our obligation to act to reduce gaps and create a fair system of rewards that allows every citizen to live in dignity.” Pollsters had said Kulanu could bolster its popularity if it added a security figure to its roster.

Jerusalem Post PM to French Amb: First Rule in fighting terror is not to be afraid The first law in fighting terrorism is to not be afraid, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday, at the start of a meeting with French Ambassador Patrick Maisonnave. “I know that there are many in France who are asking themselves, how can we fight this dreadful fear-imposing barbarism. Should we continue to publish our views? Should we express our opinions? Should we now cut back? My message – in Paris, in Jerusalem, anywhere – is that the first rule in fighting terrorism is to refuse to be afraid,” he said. Another important point, he said, “is that we have to unite to roll back this tide of fear.” Netanyahu told the ambassador that Israel is mourning “with our French brothers and sisters” and is committed to joint action “to defeat the enemies of the democratic values we all cherish.”

Ynet News Gunmen Kill 2, Take Others hostage at Paris kosher supermarket At least two people were killed and several others were taken hostage Friday when a gunman opened fire at a kosher supermarket in eastern Paris, French security sources said. The events near Paris' Porte de Vincennes took place as two suspects in France's deadliest terror attack in decades were cornered near Charles de Gaulle airport. Police said that the gunman was a member of the same jihadist group as the two suspects in the attack at weekly newspaper Charlie Hebdo.

Times of Israel PA: No Reconstruction Until We Get Control of Gaza The Palestinian unity government will not be able to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction drive without full administrative and security control over the Strip, a demand currently blocked by Hamas, the government declared in a statement this week. The government indicated that it would not be able to push forward Gaza’s reconstruction without full presence in the Strip’s border crossings, hinting that international funding had stalled due to Hamas’s insistence on remaining there. See also, “Hamas accuses PA of neglecting the Gaza Strip” (Jerusalem Post)

Times of Israel Poll: Most Palestinians Believe Israel Wants to Destroy Al-Aqsa Fearful of Israel and distrustful of their own leadership, 43% of Gazans and 23% of West Bankers seek emigration, poll finds; 77% back rocket attacks on Israel; Hamas popularity soaring. Despite the bleak responses, Khalil Shikaki, director of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, said that Palestinian views were largely influenced by their perception of the Israeli ones. A quarter of the respondents who rejected the components of the Clinton parameters said they would change their mind if Israel agreed to them. “Despite the hardening of views on the surface, the change may have to do with the public’s perception of the Israeli intentions,” Shikaki said. See also, “Israeli general says not worried by Palestinian move to join ICC” (Reuters)

New York Times Egypt Moves to Eradicate Town Near Gaza Strip Egypt began evacuating hundreds of families from a town bordering the Gaza Strip on Thursday after a senior official acknowledged that the military was eradicating the town in order to complete a security zone abutting the Palestinian territory. The military began bulldozing the border town, Rafah, several months ago as part of a sweeping response to repeated militant attacks on Egyptian security personnel in the Sinai Peninsula. After evacuating hundreds of families and clearing an area stretching 500 yards from the border, the authorities announced in November that they were doubling the size of the security zone. The government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has justified its drastic counterterrorism measures in the Sinai Peninsula, including the razing of Rafah, as necessary to deter the smuggling of weapons and militants across the border.

Reuters ‘Al Qaeda in Syria Planning Mass Attacks on West’ Al Qaeda militants in Syria are plotting attacks to inflict mass casualties in the West, possibly against transport systems or "iconic targets", the head of Britain's MI5 Security Service said on Thursday. Speaking after gunmen killed 12 people in an assault on a French satirical newspaper, MI5 boss Andrew Parker warned a strike on the United Kingdom was highly likely. "A group of core al Qaeda terrorists in Syria is planning mass casualty attacks against the West," Director General Parker said in a rare public speech at MI5 headquarters in London. His last public speech was in October 2013. Parker said around 600 British extremists had traveled to Syria, many joining the militant group which calls itself "Islamic State." See also, “Al-Qaeda challenges Islamic State with Paris attack” (Al-Monitor)

Ha’aretz – January 8, 2015 Former PM Barak: Netanyahu Leading Israel to Disaster Two years after leaving politics, Ehud Barak recalls the wasted time and lost opportunities of the Netanyahu government he served in from 2009 to 2013. He also does not rule out his return. By Gidi Weitz Once every few months during the term of the previous government, the defense minister, Ehud Barak, would arrive at the official residence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at 1 Balfour Street, in Jerusalem, usually at 6 A.M. Already waiting in the sitting area where Netanyahu receives guests was the foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman.  “Sometimes we sat for hours on the patio of the Prime Minister’s Residence,” Barak recalls now, publicly, for the first time. “I did most of the talking, explaining to them why we needed to enter into intensive negotiations with the Palestinians. That would be a critical act in its own right, in my view, and it could also reduce external and domestic opposition at a time when we [Israel] would want to take independent action in Iran.  “Bibi talks. Lieberman’s silent most of the time. And at the end of the conversation, Lieberman turns to Bibi and says, ‘I don’t know how to live with these suggestions of Barak’s.’ There were a few conversations like that, some in the presence of [then-National Security Adviser] Yaakov Amidror and [then-political consultant] Ron Dermer – people from Bibi’s closest circle – and some among just the three of us.  “And in the end,” Barak continues, “you see how the conversation continues, and you can go on smoking your cigar and eating green ice cream – but the conversation itself had actually become hollow. It went on because it wasn’t pleasant to admit that it had really ended.”  This was the period in which Barak enjoyed the status of being Netanyahu’s ultimate confidant. “When Bibi and I look up, we see only the sky above us,” Barak was quoted as saying back in 2012 – referring, no doubt, primarily to the fateful subject that united the two against almost the whole world: the shared desire to attack Iran’s emerging nuclear facilities.  Barak was the premier’s envoy to the Americans, something of a counterbalance to Lieberman in the eyes of the international community.  There were some, including perhaps the defense minister, who dreamed that the alliance with Netanyahu would generate a political big bang and a joint run for power. In practice, the alliance eroded Barak’s already problematic public image, caused in part by his second incarnation as a very wealthy individual living high up in the luxury Akirov Towers in Tel Aviv.  After his Labor’s defeat in the 2009 election, Barak declared that he would remain in the opposition, but finally joined the right-wing government as a self-perceived moderating and balancing figure, and to remove the stains he bore in the eyes of his critics. “In the decision about whether to be [former prime ministers] Yitzhak Shamir or Menachem Begin, Bibi wants to be like Begin,” Barak said at the time, seeking to mitigate the wrath of those who railed against his joining the government. Subsequently, he left the Labor Party and established Atzmaut (Independence), in order to stay with Netanyahu and ensure the continued existence and viability of his government. 4

 In May 2012, he afforded Netanyahu an additional dose of ruling-party oxygen by secretly concocting an alliance between Likud and Kadima, in the latter’s incarnation as a party with a large number of Knesset seats, under Shaul Mofaz. But as the election approached, in the shadow of Operation Pillar of Defense in Gaza, in November 2012 – just when it appeared that Barak would overcome the waves of antagonism that washed over him from every direction, and would get enough votes to enter the Knesset because of the public’s renewed perception of him as “Mr. Security” – Barak decided to leave politics. He left without offering a full explanation, and without puncturing Netanyahu with so much as a pin.  Where do you think Netanyahu’s passivity on the Palestinian issue will lead? o Barak: “In the end, passivity and avoidance of taking action lead to something being imposed on you that is far less good than what you could have achieved. And there is always the considerable danger that you will cross, without sensing it, the point of no return, and when you snap out of it and really want the previous situation back, it will simply not be possible, you will slide down a slippery slope. We saw examples of this in the last century in a neighboring continent – in South Africa during the apartheid years. It may have been Mark Twain who once said, ‘History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.’ o “We have been ruling another nation for 47 years. We are ignoring the fact that the situation has changed in the international arena. The leaders and the people themselves don’t remember the circumstances and the struggle under which the State of Israel emerged. There are no leaders or publics in the world who remember the Holocaust as a personal experience. What they’ve seen for decades is the reversal of the image that accompanied Israel. It’s not David and his slingshot being threatened by Goliath. o “What registers in the consciousness is the Palestinian youth who is symbolically using David’s weapon against Israelis who are armed to the teeth inside tanks, and with missiles and so forth. That image is becoming embedded in the public consciousness abroad. In the 21st century, there is no chance of maintaining over time a situation that will be accepted by the international community in which Israel continues to rule those millions of people and does not allow them to vote for the Knesset.”  When will the day come when the world will treat us as it treated F.W. de Klerk in South Africa? o “It will come. It will come. It’s a slippery slope, and on that slippery slope we are marching in the direction of one state for two nations. The feeling that’s taking shape internationally is that Israel doesn’t really have the intention – that the critical mass of the Israeli leadership has reached the conclusion that there is no reasonable two-nation solution that can guarantee Israel security, and that it has no alternative but to continue holding on to the entire territory and grant them autonomous rights. And [we think that] because we have no alternative, the world will be compelled to accept that. o “In fact, all these assumptions are groundless, it’s just due to the absence of an assertive discourse. The world won’t buy it. It’s just an illusion. That idea will be repulsed brutally by our best friends. At a certain stage, it might be possible to hide that intention by means of speeches at Tel Hai College, or a speech at the University of Haifa, after your Bar-Ilan University speech. So there will be a couple of more speeches,

which will generate ambiguity for a time, but the international community is becoming disillusioned, and it will follow a course we have seen [elsewhere]. I deliberately do not want to mention the name of what happened in another continent.”  The apartheid regime [in South Africa] collapsed under the strain of a world economic boycott. Do you discern the same approach developing in our case? o “Gradual processes of Israel’s delegitimization are occurring below the surface. The BDS movement is developing. Its name is derived from the movement that finally brought about the collapse of South Africa, which was economically and militarily stronger than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa together, but could not keep standing because it could not withstand international isolation. As long as those voices against Israel came from Eritrea or Mauritania, fine; when they start to come from Scandinavia and Britain, it’s a serious problem. Look at Israel’s standing in the community of labor organizations worldwide – it’s a very grim situation. That will continue with consumer organizations, pension funds, the universities.”  During the Netanyahu years, we’ve seen not only stagnation but tough threshold conditions. What do you think, for example, about Netanyahu’s demand that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas recognize Israel as the Jewish state? o “Since when do you make the whole root of legitimacy conditional on the dialogue with the Palestinian partner, on the question of whether he is ready to recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people? Zionism was founded so that we would decide, not look elsewhere for recognition. Did we ask for recognition from the Egyptians? From the Jordanians? From the Syrians? In the end it looks like trickery trying to tug on some sort of emotional heartstring in us.”  When you entered the Knesset in 2009, you said, “Bibi is going to be more like Begin than Shamir.” o “True. And you ask if that happened? No.”  But what happened? He promised you and [Likud MK] Dan Meridor that this time he would make major moves. Netanyahu actually compromised more in his first term: He returned Hebron and signed the Wye agreement. o “Netanyahu learned one lesson from his previous term in office: Do not lose your political base at any price. He understands history deeply, he has a complex, multifaceted conception of reality. But the decisive factor in what he does is, ultimately, survival. o “Time will tell whether he has lost his magic with the voters. We are not seeing any enthusiasm. I have many friends in Likud – the enthusiasm is gone. There’s a feeling of sourness that has continued since Operation Protective Edge, both because of the price and because there was no clearcut victory, and people don’t understand why it took so long.

 Do you think Herzog is worthy of being prime minister? o “Buji is a serious and worthy person. He doesn’t possess a fireworks-and-flames exterior, even though I have to say that in the past few weeks this has been emerging in him, in the face of the clarity and sharpness of the challenge. He is intelligent and purposeful, and he’s a hard worker. He is definitely standing on his own legs in this election. He was attacked a great deal over the union with Tzipi [Livni], but I think that was the right thing from his point of view.”  Who will you vote for? o “My natural place is to vote for Herzog. Kahlon is also a very good person – I was always impressed by him in the government. He is forthright, real, businesslike, caring and he has a certain openness. Buji is more experienced. There may be young people who can’t bring themselves to vote for Labor, or people who feel that they are too center, then fine, Kahlon is definitely a good possibility.”

Al-Monitor – January 8, 2015 Palestinian Officials Give Contradictory Media Statements By Daoud Kuttab  Observers of recent statements by senior Palestinian officials might be confused about the Palestinian strategy and likely reactions to Israeli and US political and financial restrictions.  Are Palestinians really going to dissolve their government or are they going to hold on to it? Will Palestinian security coordination with Israel continue or not? Will Palestinians resubmit their resolution to the UN Security Council or will they accept that the Security Council is a dead end so long as the United States is threatening its veto?  While some of the top PLO officials have been quoted in contradictory terms, it is not clear whether these statements reflect a confused communications strategy or a well-planned one in which different audiences are fed different points of view. The spin to Israelis might be different than the tone of the messages to Americans, and both are different to what is said to the local Palestinian public.  An in-depth look at some of the most recent statements reflect self-serving attitudes and a one-upmanship possibly connected to the upcoming seventh Fatah Congress, rather than a pre-planned communications strategy. Also revealed are the on-off personal relations between some senior officials and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, a sign that all is not under control in the Muqata presidential headquarters.  Making slightly different statements to different publics can be seen in the ways chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat discussed the topic with an international media outlet and with an Israeli one. Speaking to the BBC on Jan 3, Erekat condemned the recent Israeli decision to suspend the transfer of custom and tax fees collected on behalf of the Palestinians, but fell short of saying that this will trigger a move toward dissolving the Palestinian government.  Erekat also avoided the issue of dissolving the Palestinian government when speaking to BBC Arabic on Jan. 4. But on the same day and speaking to the widely circulated Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronot, Erekat made hints about dissolving the Palestinian Authority (PA). He said that if Israel continues to withhold Palestinian money it will "find itself responsible for the territories like in 1992." The PA was established after the Oslo Accord was signed in Washington in September 1993. The Jerusalem Post also referred to the Erekat quote in a story titled “Erekat hints at dissolution of Palestinian Authority after Israel withholds tax funds.”  However, Fatah Central Committee member and possible heir to Abbas Maj. Gen. Jibril Rajoub completely rejected the idea of dissolving the Palestinian government. Speaking to Al- Monitor on Jan. 6, Rajoub categorically rejected dissolving the PA. “The PA was and will remain a national achievement and national necessity. Dissolving it is not on the agenda of the political leadership,” Rajoub said.

 Rajoub, who was the head of the Preventive Security Force in the first years of the PA, was extremely tough in his reactions after the death of fellow Fatah leader and minister Ziad Abu Ein. Rajoub said Dec. 10 that security coordination with Israel will end as a reaction to the death of Abu Ein. He has since said that security coordination has yet to be officially called off, but remains adamant that it is only a matter of time. “Since the collapse of negotiations, the whole system of bilateral cooperation is zero, including the issue of security. But officially it is a matter of time before we declare this. When the time is right we will take this decision. It is a matter of days or weeks.” Rajoub told Al-Monitor.  A source in the Palestinian mission in London, who is familiar with both Rajoub and Erekat, tried to explain the contradictions. “There is a cockfight between the two,” the source told Al- Monitor. “Rajoub might very well replace Erekat soon,” the source said in reference to the person who will be trusted with Abbas’ ear and possible position as chief negotiator.  The source explained that the most recent sober statements by Rajoub have to do with the reconciliation that has taken place in the last few days between Rajoub and Abbas. It appears that Abbas was told that Rajoub had called the Palestinian president weak during Rajoub’s September visit to the United Arab Emirates, which caused a chill between them. But according to another source close to Rajoub in Ramallah, who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, the differences were ironed out.  Both Rajoub and Erekat are looking at the upcoming Fatah conference to solidify their own positions within the movement. Of the 1,000 delegates to the Fatah Congress, 200 are security personnel who are loyal to Abbas and who are likely to be close to Rajoub as well due to his long history within the security apparatus.  Rajoub has also built a strong following within the rank and file due to his efforts as the head of the Palestinian Football Federation, which has been on a steady growth since his takeover. Palestine's soccer team has qualified for the first time to compete in the Asian Cup, which will take place in Australia starting Jan. 8.  As to whose statements the public should believe, a senior communications officer within the Palestinian state media told Al-Monitor to look to Abbas for the official position. Zaal Abu Rokti, who heads the Palestinian Center for Media and Democracy, told Al-Monitor “the key reference point should be the PLO’s Executive Committee, whose chair is Abbas.”  But the secretary-general of the PLO’s Executive Committee, Yasser Abed Rabbo, appears not to be on speaking terms with Abbas. This personal conflict appears to be behind the unusual silence of Abed Rabbo, who has been unhappy with the way that Abbas has been concentrating power. Abed Rabbo might be losing his important position in the PLO, according to a report in The National Interest.  Still, most insiders contacted by Al-Monitor did not feel that these contradictions and personality issues reflect a major difference that is worrying. The key, they say, is that they reflect the pressures placed on the shoulders of the Palestinian leadership. As Abbas takes on a very complicated and difficult political path to end the occupation, it is natural that different voices, even contradictory ones, come up every now and then.