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Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington

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Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington A contribution of the Watershed and River Systems Management Program, a joint program of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5081 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Cover: Photograph titled Irrigation Columbia Basin Project, Washington. Photograph thought to have been taken in 1946 or 1947, (Photograph Number P222-100-4036, obtained with permission from the Bureau of Reclamation, accessed September 2009 at: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g5000/photolab/gallery_detail.cfm?PICIDTYPE=10026) Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington By Mark C. Mastin A contribution of the Watershed and River Systems Management Program, a joint program of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5081 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2009 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Suggested citation: Mastin, M.C., 2009, Watershed models for decision support for inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5081, 54 p. iii Contents Abstract ..........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................1 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................3 Database-Centered Decision Support System ................................................................................3 Modular Modeling System ..................................................................................................................4 Description of the Study Area ............................................................................................................4 Conceptual Model of Hydrology .................................................................................................................9 Frozen Ground .......................................................................................................................................9 Evapotranspiration..............................................................................................................................11 Groundwater Flow ..............................................................................................................................12 Regional Flow .............................................................................................................................12 Springs .........................................................................................................................................12 Channel Gains and Losses ................................................................................................................13 Irrigation ...............................................................................................................................................18 Generalizations about the Study Area ............................................................................................18 Simulation of Runoff ...................................................................................................................................18 Description of the Numerical Model ...............................................................................................19 Modular Modeling System Modules Developed for the Yakima Watershed and River Systems Management Program Project ........................................................19 New Modules .............................................................................................................................21 Construction of Models ..............................................................................................................................22 GIS Weasel ..........................................................................................................................................22 Parameter Estimation Outside of Weasel .......................................................................................24 Calibration and Evaluation of Numerical Model ....................................................................................27 Available Data .....................................................................................................................................27 Parameter Adjustment .......................................................................................................................28 Comparisons of Simulated and Observed Runoff ..........................................................................31 Peak-Flow Simulations .............................................................................................................31 Mean Monthly Hydrographs ....................................................................................................34 Model Evaluation ................................................................................................................................39 Forecast Evaluation ...................................................................................................................39 Crab Creek at Irby Record Extension .....................................................................................42 Sources of Error ..................................................................................................................................44 Water Budget ......................................................................................................................................44 Integrating Watershed Models Into a User Interface for Real-Time Forecasting ............................45 Opening Screen...................................................................................................................................45 Data Retrieval ......................................................................................................................................46 Time-Series Graphs ............................................................................................................................46 Single Model Runs ..............................................................................................................................47 ESP Model Runs ..................................................................................................................................47 MMS Model Runs ...............................................................................................................................50 Summary .......................................................................................................................................................51 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................52 References Cited .........................................................................................................................................53 iv Figures Figure 1. Map showing streamflow-gaging stations, Columbia Basin Project, and study area boundaries in the Potholes Reservoir basin, Washington …………… 2 Figure 2. Diagram showing a database-centered Decision Support System ……………… 3 Figure 3. Diagram showing components of the Modular Modeling System ………………… 4 Figure 4. Map showing shaded relief of study area near Potholes Reservoir, east-central Washington ………………………………………………………… 5 Figure 5. Map showing average annual precipitation during 1961–90 in the Potholes Reservoir basin, Washington ……………………………………………………… 6 Figure 6. Graphs showing average monthly precipitation, and minimum and maximum temperatures at Ephrata Airport and Davenport, Washington, 1971 through 2000 ………………………………………………………………… 7 Figure 7. Graph showing mean monthly discharge at two Crab Creek streamflow-gaging stations and one Rocky Ford Creek streamflow-gaging station for indicated periods, Potholes Reservoir basin, Washington ………………………………… 8 Figure 8. Graph showing mean monthly discharge at three streamflow-gaging stations in the Lind Coulee basin for indicated periods, Potholes Reservoir basin, Washington ……………………………………………………………………… 8 Figure 9. Graph showing hourly air and soil temperature, and daily snowfall for part of winter 2002–03 at Davenport, Washington ………………………………………
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