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Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change and Adaptation Options in the Netherlands

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Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change and Adaptation Options in the Netherlands o GLOBALCHANGE Dutch National Research Programme onGloba lAi r Pollution andClimat e Change Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options inth e Netherlands Report no.: 410 200 088 (2001) ISBN: 90 5851 065 4 E.C.va n Ierland, R.S. de Groot, P.J. Kuikman, P. Martens, B.Amelung , N. Daan, M. Huynen, K. Kramer, J. Szönyi, J.A. Veraart, A. Verhagen,A . van Vliet, P.E.V.va n Walsum, E. Westein InternationalCentr efo r Integrative Studies(ICIS ) Alterra International Centre for Wageningen Integrative Studies The Netherlands Maastricht University The Netherlands This project was carried out in the framework of the Dutch National Research Programme on GlobalAi r Pollution and Climate Change, registered under no. 952274, entitled: "Integrated assessment of vulnerability and adaptation options to climate change inth e Netherlands" o GLOBAL CHANGE Nationaal Onderzoek Programma Mondiale Luchtverontreiniging en Klimaatverandering (NOP) Het Nationaal Onderzoek Programma Mondiale Luchtverontreiniging en Klimaatverandering (NOP) bevindt zich thans in de twee fase (1995-2001). De eerste fase, waarin 150 projecten zijn uitgevoerd, liep van 1990 tot 1995.Naa r verwachting zullen in de tweede fase uiteindelijk circa 80 projecten worden uitgevoerd. Gezien de aard van het klimaatprobleem is een multi-disciplinaire benadering binnen het NOP noodzakelijk. Het programma is onderverdeeld in vier thema's: I Gedrag van het klimaatsysteem als geheel en in onderdelen II Kwetsbaarheid van natuurlijke en maatschappelijke systemen voor klimaatverandering III Maatschappelijke oorzaken en oplossingen IV Integratie en assessment Het primaire doel van het NOP, als strategisch en lange termijn onderzoekprogramma, is te voorzien in de behoefte aan beleidsrelevante informatie voor de ontwikkeling van het nationale en internationale klimaatbeleid. Naast het bereiken van dit inhoudelijke doel, wordt er ook veel belang aan gehecht dat het onderzoek op de langere termijn verankerd zal blijven in de Nederlandse onderzoeksstructuur. Door het NOP wordt twee maandelijks de (gratis) onderzoeksnieuwsbrief "CHANGE" uitgegeven. Voor meer informatie over het NOP kunt uzic h richten tot: Programmabureau NOP, Postbus 1(p b 59), 3729 BA, Bilthoven Tel.: +3130 2743211 Fax: +3130 2744436 e-mail: [email protected] http:// www.nop.nl National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP) The National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP) is currently in its second phase, 1995-2001. The first phase, in which 150 projects were carried out, ran from 1990 to 1995. About 80 projects are expected to be finally realised in the second phase. The nature of the climate problem warrants a multi-disciplinary approach within the NRP. The programme is categorised into four themes: I Dynamics of the climate system and its component parts II Vulnerability of natural and societal systems to climate change III Societal causes and solutions IV Integration and assessment The primary objective of the NRP as a strategic and long-term research programme is to meet the demand for policy-relevant information for the development of national and international climate policy. Besides realising this substantive objective, a great deal of importance is attached to the long-term anchoring of the research within the Dutch research structure. The NRP Programme Office publishes a (free) research newsletter called "CHANGE" every two months. For more information on the NRP please contact: Programme Office NRP,P.O .Bo x 1(p b 59), 3729 BA, Bilthoven Tel: +3130 2743211 Fax: +3130 2744436 e-mail: [email protected] http:// www.nop.nl ABSTRACT In recent decades, it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is becoming warmer and that regional climates are changing. This report summarizes the results of an integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands carried out between July 2000 and July 2001 within the framework of the Dutch National Research Program on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP-2). The project's main aims were: • to provide an overview of scientific insights, expert judgements and stakeholders' perceptions of current and future impacts (positive and negative) of climate change for several economic sectors, human health, and natural systems inth eNetherlands , considering various cross-sectoral interactions • to develop a set of adaptation options for these sectors through a participatory process with the main stakeholders • to perform an integrated assessment of cross-sectoral interactions of climate change impacts andadaptatio n options. Climate change impacts and adaptation options have been investigated for several important economic sectors (including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, industry, energy, transport, insurance and recreation & tourism), human health and natural systems (including soils,wate r and biodiversity issues) The results of this study are based on literature survey, a dialogue with experts and stakeholders. We are convinced that the report represents the most essential and relevant aspects of the impacts and adaptation options for climate change in the Netherlands, given the scenario setting of this study, the state of the art of current scientific knowledge, and today's expert and stakeholders' perceptions of the issues at stake. ©2001 Wageningen UR Postbus 9101, NL-6700 HB Wageningen, the Netherlands Tel.: (0317)474700; fax: (0317)419000; e-mail: [email protected] Niets uit deze uitgave mag worden verveelvoudigd en/of openbaar gemaakt door middel van druk, fotokopie, microfilm of op welke andere wijze ook zonder voorafgaande schriftelijke toestemming van Wageningen UR. Wageningen UR aanvaardt geen aansprakelijkheid voor eventuele schade voortvloeiend uit het gebruik van de resultaten van dit onderzoek of detoepassin g van de adviezen. Projectnumme r 952274 rapport nr 41020 0 088 IV Executive Summary 1 Introduction In recent decades it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is becoming warmer and that regional climates are changing. This report summarizes the results of an integrated assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation options in the Netherlands carried out between July 2000 and July 2001 within the framework of the Dutch National Research Program on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP-2). The project's main aimswere : • to provide an overview of scientific insights, expert judgements and stakeholders' perceptions of current and future impacts (positive and negative) of climate change for several economic sectors, human health, and natural systems in theNetherlands , considering various cross-sectoral interactions • to develop a set of adaptation options for these sectors through a participatory process with the main stakeholders • to perform an integrated assessment of cross-sectoral interactions of climate change impacts and adaptation options. Climate change impacts and adaptation options have been investigated for several important economic sectors (including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, industry, energy, transport, insurance and recreation & tourism), human health and natural systems (including soils,wate r and biodiversity issues) (see Figure 1). For these sectors, both scientific knowledge and stakeholders' perceptions on the impacts and adaptation-options were assessed in order to provide an overview of the main issues at stake, and taking into account leading opinions within sectors. Both the scientific analysis, and the dialogue with the main stakeholders, were based on generally accepted projections for future climate change, and environmental and socio-economic developments for the Netherlands, in the context of Western Europe. Research methods included: • literaturereview o f the main impacts and adaptation options • dialogue with involved stakeholders based on a questionnaire and a workshop (March 29-30, 2001) • integration framework on the internet to present the main impacts and adaptation options,an d their interactions. This study did not focus on mitigation policies (such as emission reduction). The NOP COOL project provides an integrated assessment in order to explore long term options for climate change policy in the Netherlands in a European and global context (see interim NOP report by MM. Berk. L. Hordijk, M. Hisschemöller, M.T.J. Kok, D.Liefferink, RJ. Swart. W.Tuinstra on "Climate OptiOns for the Long Term (COOL) Interim Phase report". Socio-economic developments Environmental change Economy Acidification andeutrophicatio n Demography Fragmentationan ddisturbanc e Physical planning Salinization andsoi l subsidence Humansociet y Emissions Emissions Naturalsystem s \^-— ""^^^ Agruiiihun.' l:rjn.<U> [ Climate >. Fisheries ( Change J lnduMrv llydrofogy «oils '1rniBjwr t Ecosystems •^— Impacts Impacts hwuraiiuc tfciüih KcatiuiMi Tourism Adaptation options Figure 1. This diagram presents the scenarios and sectors in this study. Activities in both human society and natural systems lead to emissions and climate change. This study presents impacts of climate change on the sectors identified within Human society and Natural systems in the Netherlands and adaptation options to respond to climate change, within the context of a specific set of socio-economic, environmental and climate scenarios till the end of this century. This Executive Summary presents in section 2 the main results of the literature review and the dialogue regarding sectoral impacts
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