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CENCOSUD Equity - Chile Recommendation: BUY Target Price: CLP 2,100

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CENCOSUD Equity - Chile Recommendation: BUY Target Price: CLP 2,100 Company CENCOSUD Equity - Chile Recommendation: BUY Target Price: CLP 2,100 Argentina to start driving up results Miguel Moreno - [email protected] Main Drivers ■ Argentina’s private consumption to recover, driving up SSS. After a 2016 of economic reorganization and recession, the market expects Argentina’s GDP and private consumption to be among the fastest-growing, which we expect will drive up SSS, especially in electronics. Private consumption will likely recover from the -2% in 2016e to ~3% in 2017, boosted by lower inflation and recovery in consumer confidence as investment levels pick up. Argentina is Cencosud’s second-greatest contributor to results, accounting for ~25 of revenues and ~30% of EBITDA. ■ Andean countries to have a better 2017 thanks to lower inflation, FX stability, and improved consumer confidence.Chile, Peru and Colombia account for ~70% of Cencosud’s consolidated EBITDA, and since we expect a better macro scenario for all three countries, our bias is positive for SSS and margins. We expect SSS above inflation for all formats, which is the main driver behind our projected ~20bps SG&A dilution; this, in turn, should drive improvements to operating margins in 2017. ■ Discount on multiples. According to our estimates, Cencosud is trading at 9.9x EV/EBITDA for 2017, which is the lowest since 2015 (9.3x), and 2008 before that (8.2x). The average EV/EBITDA for the past five years (since the last M&A in Colombia) is 12.5x. As for P/E, Cencosud is trading at 22.2x for 2017, in line with the historical multiple from the past five years, even though the 2017 figure excludes asset revaluation while the historical multiple includes it. Risks to Our Recommendation ■ Downside risks: i) Lower economic recovery than expected in the region, especially in Argentina; ii) worse than expected SSS; iii) worse-than-expected expense dilution. P/E (Average) EV/EBITDA (Average) P/BV (Average) 100 Company CENCOSUD Equity- Chile Sector Retail Recommendation Buy Close Price (CLP/share) 1,880 Target Price (CLP/share) 2,100 Close Price (USD/ADR) 8.5 Target Price (USD/ADR) 9.5 # Shares (millions) 2,843 52w High-Low (CLP/share) 2,225 - 1,279 Date Dec-30-16 ADR Ratio 3.0 Avg. Daily Volume (USDmn) 8.7 Bloomberg Ticker (Local) CENCOSUD CI Market Cap. (USDmn) 8,098 Free Float (%) 41 Bloomberg Ticker (ADR) CNCO US Valuation Method % Year 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e DCF (WACC: 10.9% Nominal) 50 Operating Data Total Stores 1,127 1,125 1,153 1,194 1,237 EV/EBITDA 11x 17e 50 Shoping Centers 53 54 55 57 59 Total Selling Area (ex-malls) 4,416,613 4,474,013 4,623,413 4,850,913 5,080,513 Revenue by Country (CLP bn) Profit & Loss (CLP bn) 15,000 Total Sales 10,991 10,405 10,930 11,596 12,531 Var (%) 2.6 -5.3 5.0 6.1 8.1 Gross Margin (%) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 10,000 EBIT 507 531 583 636 714 EBIT (%) 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 EBITDA* 726 746 810 876 973 5,000 Var (%) 11.4 2.8 8.5 8.2 11.1 EBITDA Margin 6.6 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 Net Income 232 321 241 280 334 0 Var (%) 20.3 38.4 -25.1 16.2 19.4 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e Net Margin (%) 2.1 3.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 Chile Argentina Brazil Peru Colombia Balance Statement (CLP bn) Current Assets 2,502 2,590 2,705 2,848 3,089 Fixed Assets 7,609 7,604 7,644 7,704 7,747 Share Price Evolution (Jan-15=100) Total Assets 10,111 10,195 10,352 10,563 10,857 Current Liabilities 2,426 2,586 2,682 2,837 3,022 160 Long Term Liabilities 3,714 3,562 3,478 3,327 3,186 CENCOSUD CI Equity 150 IPSA Idex Equity 3,971 4,047 4,191 4,399 4,649 140 Total Liabilities & Equity 10,111 10,195 10,352 10,563 10,857 130 Free Cash Flow (CLP bn) 120 EBITDA 726 746 810 876 973 110 Taxes -99 -137 -104 -124 -147 100 Changes in Working Capital 25 -43 -42 -47 -54 90 Cash Flow from Operations 652 565 663 705 772 80 Capex -207 -266 -259 -295 -308 6 5 Debt Service -5,007 -238 -330 -389 -369 15 16 16 15 15 16 16 15 15 l- l- -1 -1 t- n- p- c- c- b- r- Free Cash Flow -4,643 -109 -22 -51 12 Ju Ju ay ay Ja Oc Fe Se De De Ma M M Credit Metrics (x) Liabilities / Equity 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 Comparables 2017e (by Market Cap) EBITDA / Interest expenses 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.0 Debt / EBITDA 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.0 Net Debt / EBITDA 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.5 Valuation Close Price (CLP / Share) 1,415 1,880 1,880 1,880 1,880 EPS (CLP) 82 113 85 98 117 P/E (x) 17.3 16.6 22.2 19.1 16.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 10.8 9.9 9.1 8.0 P/BV (x) 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 Div. Yield (%) 2.0 3.2 1.8 1.4 1.6 P/S (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 FCF Yield (%) 9.8 5.3 7.5 8.5 9.9 ROA (%) 2.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 3.1 ROE (%) 5.8 7.9 5.7 6.4 7.2 ROCE (%) 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.9 Company Description Ownership Structure (Sep-2016) Management Team (Dec-2016) Cencosud is one of the largest Chilean Pension Chairman: Horst Paulmann multi-format retail operators in LatAm, Funds Paulmann CEO: Jaime Soler 21% with operations in Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Family CFO: Rodrigo Larrain Colombia, and Peru. Supermarkets are 59% IR: Marisol Fernandez the group’s main business unit; they also Others operate shopping malls, home improvement 20% IR email: [email protected] stores, department stores, and financial Employees: 140,000 businesses. Website: www.cencosud.cl *EBITDA excludes non-operating non-recurrent accounts such as gains from assets sales and assets impairments. 2015 EBITDA 101 was affected by severances..
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