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Home , Anthropocene, Biodiversity loss, Habitat destruction, Human overpopulation, Population, Population Matters

THE CRISIS: WHY MATTERS A Briefing EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. The global population has increased from 3.7 billion in 1970 to over 7.8 billion today. The UN projects that it will continue to increase throughout this century. Its median projection is for a population of 10.9 billion by 2100, with a 95% certainty range of 9.4-12.7 billion.

2. has been accelerating and the rate is now so high that scientists have established we are in the middle of a sixth mass extinction – the – driven by human activity. By far the biggest culprits are destruction and the of wild . These are joined by , change, and and disease. Human acts as a direct driver of all of these factors, except invasive species and disease, where it nevertheless can contribute due to human population movements. The failure to address population under the 2010 Aichi Biodiversity Targets, which expired in 2020, is likely to have contributed to the failure to achieve any of the twenty targets.

3. The significant contribution of population 5. The most effective solutions all directly growth to loss has been benefit everyone: unhindered access to directly acknowledged and addressed in a modern and good quality number of key and authoritative scientific education, empowering women and girls to papers, reports and reviews in recent . make choices about their bodies and their Many directly call for action to address , as well as helping to lift families and growth. entire communities out of . That long- term benefits to the and its biodiversity 4. Significant results from any action intended also arise reinforces the central importance to slow global population growth will take at of redoubling efforts to achieve them. least a generation to manifest, but will have permanent and irreversibly positive effects 6. As a key driver of the main causes of throughout this century and beyond. Action biodiversity loss, human population growth to ensure future population growth does not is an appropriate and necessary issue for endanger the Earth’s biodiversity is therefore attention in the post-2020 framework of the essential now. UN Convention on Biological Diversity. 2 INTRODUCTION

Ecosystems, interdependent webs of living food, water and , amongst many other and their physical environments, are finite and renewable resources. They have vital to all on Earth. Our provide also contributed to the that is us with a vast range of vital resources, including damaging natural , changing disease clean air, , food, raw materials patterns and acidifying the . and medicines. Biodiversity, the variation pollution, and the of life on Earth, is a major factor in ’s of waterways through fertiliser use are amongst resilience. In a biodiverse , if the multiple other problems exacerbated by environment changes and some organisms can unsustainable population growth. no longer thrive, others can take their place and fulfil essential functions. Numerous authoritative scientific papers, reports and reviews have identified human However, the biodiversity of Earth’s population growth as a driver of biodiversity ecosystems is under increasing threat from loss. While other factors also contribute and human population growth. For example, must be addressed, not least unsustainably high according to WWF’s and profoundly unequal per capita 2020, “relentless human population growth consumption, addressing population must form is putting a damaging strain on the world’s a critical part of the suite of solutions. diversity” 1; and since 1970, Fortunately, the mechanisms which reduce of wild animals have declined by rates also improve and 68%2 – in the same period, the global human well-being in multiple ways, and speed up population has more than doubled, increasing progress towards attainment of the Sustainable from 3.7 billion to over 7.8 billion today. These Development Goals. extra billions of people have all required ,

WILD VERTEBRATE ANIMAL POPULATIONS HAVE DECLINED BY TWOTHIRDS IN THE PERIOD THE HUMAN POPULATION HAS DOUBLED

+103%

-68%

1970 2016

Source WWF Living Planet Report 2020/United Population Division

3 POPULATION PROSPECTS

According to the most recent UN projections, the global population will continue to increase throughout this century. Its median projection is for a population of 10.9 billion by 2100, with a 95% certainty range of 9.4-12.7 billion.3

It is important to remember that while population growth is highest in the Global South, and relatively low in most parts of the Global North, consumption, use and carbon emissions are far greater in the richest parts of the world. This means that the global environmental impact on nature and biodiversity of each individual in wealthy countries is far higher than that of each individual in poor countries. Therefore, the size of the overall population in the Global North matters, too.

UNITED NATIONS POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION GROWTH BY CONTINENT, 2020-2100

16 14 ASIA 12

EUROPE 10

LATIN AMERICA 08 AND THE

06 NORTHERN (BILLIONS) POPULATION WORLD AMERICA

04 OCEANIA

02 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1950 2000 2050 2100 POPULATION (MILLIONS)

median projection 2020 2050 2100 Source UN, 2019 Source , 2019

4 HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH AND BIODIVERSITY LOSS

The drivers of biodiversity loss Biodiversity loss has been accelerating and the extinction rate is now so high that scientists have established we are in the middle of a sixth mass extinction – the Anthropocene – driven by human activity.4 Biodiversity loss has several primary drivers, which are all well-recognised. By far the biggest culprits are and the overexploitation of wild species. These are joined by pollution, climate change, and invasive species and disease.

Human population growth acts as a direct driver of all these factors, except invasive species and disease, where it nevertheless can contribute due to human population movements. The impact of population growth urgent action, the IPBES states, “changes to the at local level, particularly in regard to habitat direct drivers of nature deterioration cannot be loss and overexploitation, is widely recognised. achieved without transformative change that According to the Intergovernmental - simultaneously addresses the indirect drivers.”6 Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), only one quarter of land published in the July 2017 areas and one third of oceans remain relatively Proceedings of the US National Academy of undamaged by human activity.5 Sciences reviewed data on 27,600 terrestrial vertebrate species, with a more detailed The population factor analysis of 177 species. It identified A number of scientific papers, reports and the proximate causes of population reviews in recent years have directly addressed as “habitat conversion, climate disruption, the role of population growth in global overexploitation, toxification, species biodiversity loss. invasions, disease, and (potentially) large- scale nuclear ’’, and concluded that “the The most significant and high-profile is ultimate drivers of those immediate causes of the IPBES global assessment of the state of biotic destruction [are] human biodiversity, published in May 2019. The and continued population growth, and report identifies direct and indirect drivers of , especially by the rich.” 7 biodiversity loss, itemising population growth as one of the latter, alongside consumption Extracting the specific role of population in patterns, technological and biodiversity loss is a complex task that was governance. In its prescription for vital and nevertheless undertaken in two papers in 2019.

5 In Nature & , Marques resource extraction. From 2000 onwards, et al examined biodiversity loss and carbon increasing affluence overtook population as the sequestration through the measures of biggest driver, except for in Africa and West diversity and , and used Asia, where rapid population increase remains analysis to quantify the the biggest cause.9 particular impacts of drivers including population and affluence. The research One of the scientific papers with the greatest identified that environmental impact per unit impact of recent years10 has been the World of GDP has been declining, suggesting a greater Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second efficiency of environmentally relevant economic Notice, published in Bioscience in 2017. This activities. However, these efficiency gains were paper has now been endorsed by more than cancelled by overall growth, and the authors 20,000 scientists. It details decline in almost concluded that “economic and population every marker of environmental resilience, growth have been driving the upward trend and warns of “catastrophic biodiversity of impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem loss.” The paper identifies “continued rapid services, despite a reduction of the impacts population growth as a primary driver behind per unit of GDP.”8 many ecological and even societal threats.” The Warning lists thirteen policy measures The 2019 United Nations’ Global Resources essential to safeguarding our future, including Outlook report found that 90% of biodiversity the provision of family planning and girls’ loss and water stress are caused by resource education to reduce fertility, and “estimating extraction and processing, including a scientifically defensible, sustainable human . Analysis of specific drivers showed for the long term while that globally, up to the 2000, population rallying nations and leaders to support that growth was the strongest driver of increased vital goal.”11

6 Twelve studies published in the Proceedings of through voluntary means, including the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) in “improving women’s access to education and January 2021, examined global decline healthcare in Africa to accelerate voluntary and evaluated the principal threats to insect reductions in fertility levels.” 15 populations. Highlighting the essential nature of to the ecosystems upon which humanity depends, the research found that insect populations are falling at frightening rates due to human-induced threats such as the destruction of wild habitats for farming, urbanisation, use and light pollution.12 One paper in the series concluded: “To mitigate the effects of the Sixth Mass that we have caused and are experiencing now, the following will be necessary: a stable (and almost certainly lower) human population, sustainable levels of consumption, and social justice that empowers the less wealthy people and nations of the world, where the vast majority of us live.’’13 A further report, published in February 2021, specifically looked at the relationship Another two studies in recent years have between our economic and financial systems specifically examined the relationship between and biodiversity loss. Commissioned by food and environmental , the UK Treasury from leading economist including biodiversity loss. and Population Matters Patron, Sir Partha Dasgupta, The of Biodiversity: The 2019 EAT-Lancet Commission report on The Dasgupta Review details how a focus global food sustainability examines how to feed on growth and profit, which ignores and fails the human population up until 2050 without to account for environmental impacts, has causing irreversible damage to the increased human , but devastated environment. It notes the multiple impacts on nature and biodiversity. The report calls for biodiversity of food production, including that “transformative change’’ in our consumption 80% of extinction threats to mammal and bird patterns and directly addresses the issue of species are due to agriculture. The study population: “Growing human populations concluded that only a “transformation” of food have significant implications for our demands production and consumption would allow a on Nature, including for future patterns of global population of 10 billion to be fed global consumption.’’ It also highlights the sustainably, but that even with such a huge, positive impact of advancing women’s transformation, feeding a population of over 10 rights and family planning on protecting billion without negative impacts on biodiversity biodiversity: “As well as improving women’s and the environment is “increasingly access to finance, information and education, unlikely.” 14 support for -based family planning programmes can shift preferences and The World Resources Institute’s Creating a behaviour, and accelerate the demographic Sustainable Food Future, published in December transition. There has been significant 2018, was specific in including reducing human underinvestment in such programmes. population growth in its menu of actions to Addressing that shortfall, even if the effects ensure food sustainability. It specified the goal may not be apparent in the short-term, of achieving replacement level fertility rates is essential.” 16 7 EMPOWERING SOLUTIONS

Positive population action therefore be done to plug this shortfall through Significant results from any action intended to greater funding and political will. slow global population growth will take at least a generation to manifest, but will have permanent Mechanisms to secure lower fertility and and irreversibly positive effects throughout this sustainable populations through voluntary century and beyond. Action to ensure future means are positive and effective. Most are population growth does not endanger the already explicitly featured in the Sustainable Earth’s biodiversity is therefore essential now. Development Goals:

This action is positive, voluntary, in line with ● End poverty and reduce inequality – SDGs people’s aspirations, and consistent with 1, 2 and 10 global demographic trends. Coercive and ● Provide universal access to high quality reprehensible “population control” methods are education – SDG 4 as unnecessary as they are unacceptable. For ● Women’s empowerment – SDG 5 example, Bangladesh reduced its fertility rate ● Access to and uptake of modern family from above 7 in the early 1970s to 2.2 in 2014 planning – SDGs 3 and 5 through a creative and ethical family planning programme.17 Fertility rates are declining The provision of equal, unhindered access almost everywhere, but more can and must to modern family planning and good quality be done. The UN projects only a one-in-four education, which empowers women and girls chance of global population plateauing by the to make choices about their bodies and their end of the century18, while an estimated 270 lives, as well as helping to lift families and million women of reproductive age worldwide entire communities out of poverty, benefits are still in need of but without modern everyone, everywhere. That long-term benefits contraception.19 This is an increase of 40 million to the Earth and its biodiversity also arise since 1990, due to the provision of services reinforces the central importance of redoubling failing to match population growth. More must our efforts to achieve them.

8 In addition to these structural changes, use of its components, and promoting the fair the fifth component of fertility reduction is and equitable sharing of benefits arising from encouraging the choice to have smaller families. genetic resources. Indeed, the failure to address This measure is effective in all scenarios, but population under the 2010 Aichi Biodiversity particularly important in countries with a Targets24, which expired in 2020, is likely to relatively high , have contributed to the failure to achieve any of which already are a lot closer to achieving the the twenty targets. first four goals (although significant inequality may still exist within them) and which currently Recognition of the global extent and relevance have relatively low fertility levels. These of the problem is an essential first step, followed countries, mainly in the Global North, may still by discussion of appropriate mechanisms to have significant local biodiversity problems progress towards sustainable population levels (the UK, for instance, has been described as within the post-2020 framework. These could one of the most nature-depleted countries in include the establishment of targets relating the world20) and contribute significantly to to population, and the addition of a suitable the global drivers of biodiversity loss, such protocol and/or provision for their inclusion as climate change or overconsumption, for in National Biodiversity Strategies and Action example through the high demand for imported Plans, which are its key implementation agricultural products leading to habitat loss. mechanisms. Local actions Programmes to protect biodiversity through the CONCLUSION reduction of are already being employed at a local level across the world. It is clear that Earth’s biodiversity is under The Population Environment (PHE) threat as never before, and will continue to model recognises the synergies and mutual face great pressures unless we take consistent benefits of improving the conditions of human and united action now on multiple fronts. Our communities in achieving local conservation future survival depends on it. goals,21 including through the provision of family planning services to reduce local It is also abundantly clear that in order to tackle human population pressures on biodiversity. the drivers of biodiversity loss effectively on Organisations successfully implementing a global scale, we must not ignore the issue of this approach include Blue Ventures human population growth. (), Nature Uganda and Conservation (Namibia).22 Fortunately, solutions are at hand, and are extremely effective. By addressing population The Convention on Biological through positive, ethical and choice-based Diversity means, we give ourselves the opportunity As a key driver of the main causes of to enhance the quality of people’s lives and biodiversity loss, human population growth maximise the effectiveness of conservation is an appropriate and necessary issue for efforts. attention in the post-2020 framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity23, the multilateral treaty with the goals of conserving biological diversity, promoting the sustainable

9 REFERENCES

1 WWF (2020) Living Planet Report 2020: Bending the 19 Kantorová et al. (2020) Estimating progress towards curve of biodiversity loss, Almond, R.E.A., Grooten, M. and meeting women’s contraceptive needs in 185 countries: A Petersen, T. (Eds), https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-gb/ Bayesian hierarchical modelling study, PLOS Medicine, 2 ibid. https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/ 3 United Nations Population Division (2019) World journal.pmed.1003026 Population Prospects, https://population.un.org/wpp/ 20 State of Nature 2016 report, https://www.rspb.org.uk/ Publications/Files/WPP2019_10KeyFindings.pdf globalassets/downloads/documents/conservation-projects/ 4 Ceballos, G., Ehrlich, P., and Raven, P.H. (2020) state-of-nature/state-of-nature-uk-report-2016.pdf on the brink as indicators of biological 21 USAid Environmental Health, http://www.ehproject.org/ annihilation and the sixth mass extinction, from:, https:// phe/phe.html www.pnas.org/content/117/24/13596 22 Population and Sustainability Network, https:// 5 IPBES (2019) Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity populationandsustainability.org/about/our-members/ and Ecosystem Services - Summary for Policymakers, 23 Convention on Biological Diversity: preparations for the https://www.ipbes.net/news/ipbes-global-assessment- post 2020 biodiversity framework, https://www.cbd.int/ summary-policymakers-pdf conferences/post2020 6 ibid. 24 Aichi Biodiversity Targets, https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/ 7 Ceballos, G., Ehrlich, P., and Dirzo, R. (2017) Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signalled by vertebrate population losses and declines, https://www. pnas.org/content/114/30/E6089 8 Marques, A. et al. (2019) Increasing impacts of on biodiversity and driven by population and , Nature Ecology & Evolution, DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-0824-3 9 United Nations Environment Programme & International Resources Panel (2019) Global Resources Outlook, http:// www.resourcepanel.org/reports/global-resources-outlook 10 The Altmetric tool ranks the paper as among the top 5% of all research outputs it has ever tracked, https:// oxfordjournals.altmetric.com/details/28854048#score 11 Ripple et al. and signatories from 180 countries (2017) World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice, Bioscience, https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/ article/67/12/1026/4605229 12 Wagner et al. (2021) Insect decline in the Anthropocene: Death by a thousand cuts, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, https://www.pnas.org/content/118/2/ e2023989118 13 Wagner, D. & Raven, P. (2021), Agricultural intensification and climate change are rapidly decreasing , published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, https://www.pnas.org/content/118/2/e2002548117 14 Willett et (2019) Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT- Lancet report on healthy diets from sustainable food systems https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/EAT. 15 Searchinger et al (2018), Creating a sustainable food future, World Resources Institute, https://www.wri.org/ publication/creating-sustainable-food-future 16 Dasgupta, P. (2021) The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review – Abridged Version, https://assets. publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ uploads/attachment_data/file/957292/Dasgupta_ Review_-_Abridged_Version.pdf 17 Spectacular achievement (2014), article published on Development and Cooperation website, https://www.dandc. eu/en/article/successful-family-planning-bangladesh- holistic-approach-leads-lower-fertility-rates-rates 18 United Nations Population Division (2019) World Population Prospects, https://population.un.org/wpp/ Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf

10 ABOUT POPULATION MATTERS

Population Matters is a UK-based charity which sustainably, and helping us all to live within campaigns to achieve a sustainable human our planet’s natural limits. We believe everyone population, to protect the natural world and should have the freedom and ability to choose improve people’s lives. We promote positive, a smaller family. We support human rights, practical, ethical solutions – encouraging women’s empowerment and global justice. smaller families, inspiring people to consume

More information: Contact: populationmatters.org Andrew Howard, Senior Campaigner [email protected]