Banking in Africa: Delivering on Financial Inclusion, Supporting Stability EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK Banking in Africa: Delivering on Financial Inclusion, Supporting Financial Stability years Banking in Africa: Delivering on Financial Inclusion, Supporting Financial Stability October 2018 Banking in Africa: Delivering on Financial Inclusion, Supporting Financial Stability About the Report At its fourth edition, this report provides an analysis of recent development in the African banking sectors and specific structural topics of relevance. It combines in house research with contribution from leading market experts from commercial banks operating in the region, IFIs and other institutions. About the Economics Department of the EIB The mission of the EIB Economics Department is to provide economic analyses and studies to support the Bank in its operations and in the definition of its positioning, strategy and policy. The Department, a team of 30 economists, is headed by Debora Revoltella, Director of Economics. Main Contributors to This Year’s Report Economic Editor: Jean-Philippe Stijns, under the lead of Barbara Marchitto, Head of the Country & Financial Sector Analysis Division, and Debora Revoltella, Director of the Economics Department Introduction - Jean-Philippe Stijns Chapter 1 - Sub-Saharan African Banking Sectors: Results from a Survey of Banking Groups: Jean- Philippe Stijns and Adeline Pelletier. Chapter 2 - Banking Sector Trends in West Africa: Claudio Cali, Emmanouil Davradakis, Nina Fenton and Amine El Kourchi Chapter 3 - The Banking Sector in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Great Potential in the Face of Enormous Challenges: Jean-Philippe Stijns, Jad Benhamdane and Said Hidane Chapter 4 - The Banking Sector in East Africa - Responding to Market Shocks: Ricardo Santos, Jared Osoro Chapter 5 - Banking in Southern Africa: Sanne Zwart and Stuart Theobald Chapter 6 - Banking Sectors in North Africa: Improving Slowly but Noticeably: Andreas Kappeler, Samia Azzabi and Jad Benhamdane Chapter 7 - Ready for the Recovery? How Crowding out by Public Debt Affects Lending to Private Sector across Africa: Sanne Zwart and Vivian F. de O. Schmidt Chapter 8 - The State of Bank Recovery and Resolution Laws in Africa: Alan Bainbridge, Simon Lovegrove and Jack Prettejohn Chapter 9 - Financing Infrastructure in Africa: Andreas Kappeler, David Ashiagbor, Arthur Minsat, Rodrigo Deiana and Thang Nguyen-Quoc Afterword - Tim Bending, Claudio Cali, Nina Fenton, Andreas Kappeler and Sónia Leonardo Editorial, Linguistic and Statistical Support English Unit, Linguistic Services, European Investment Bank French Unit, Linguistic Services, European Investment Bank Production Management Unit, Linguistic Services, European Investment Bank Nathalie Gilson, Senior Operational Assistant, European Investment Bank Gabriela Donini, Assistant, European Investment Bank Published by the European Investment Bank. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the EIB. Banking in Africa: Delivering on Financial Inclusion, Supporting Financial Stability EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is recovering from the most severe growth slowdown in two decades. Yet, the recovery is expected to remain uneven across countries, and while the region’s growth in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been positive since 2017, it will remain insufficient to significantly reduce poverty. The recovery remains vulnerable. Rising public debt burdens are fuelling debt sustainability risks, while tighter global financing conditions and weaker than expected commodity prices pose additional downside risks. In some countries, lending to the public sector is crowding out private credit, which could hold back growth, while the declining number of correspondent bank relationships is becoming a cause for concern as it could complicate international transactions required in cross-border trade. North African countries are currently undergoing a prominent economic transformation. The macroeconomic situation should continue to benefit from the implementation of economic and social reforms and ongoing efforts towards regional integration. The geographical position also gives the region a considerable advantage in attracting foreign direct investment. Many countries also see this transformation as an opportunity to make economic growth more inclusive. Constituting the vast majority of firms in North Africa, microenterprises and SMEs still need to have better access to financial products and services, despite the notable progress already made. Non-bank financial institutions are still at an early stage of development, limiting the choice of financial instruments available for small firms. In many SSA banking markets, the last two years saw a pause in financial deepening but systemic crises have been successfully averted, demonstrating the improved resilience of SSA’s financial systems. However, non-performing loans are on the rise and capital adequacy and asset quality have deteriorated since the last full edition of this study in 2016. Advanced economies’ banks have been withdrawing from the region, and regional banking groups have consolidated their presence. Smaller domestic banks have been too preoccupied by the difficult economic situation to take advantage. Despite more than a decade and a half of financial deepening in nearly all SSA countries, banking sectors still have a long way to go to catch up with other regions. Indeed, access to finance still tops the list of constraints for SMEs in SSA, according to the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey. One reason for the limited access to finance of SMEs is that banks have increased their lending to the public sector in recent years. Higher issuance of public debt reduces lending to the private sector by providing a potentially attractive alternative investment, and, as observed throughout Africa, offering higher lending rates. Based on our analysis, crowding out has increased throughout Africa during 2014-18, and its prevalence is elevated in Ghana, Niger, Tanzania and Zambia. When growth picks up further, demand for loans from SMEs will rise while crowding out by public debt could reach elevated levels in several more countries. Banking groups that we surveyed report that the lack of adequate © European Investment Bank, October 2018 collateral and high default rates are reported by banking groups to be the most important obstacles to SME lending in SSA. IFIs have developed programmes to offer portfolio guarantees to commercial banks for SME lending, but a significant portion of banks’ needs for portfolio guarantees is still unmet. On the supply side, however, the 2018 EIB Survey of banking groups in SSA reveals a push for new technologies. A rising share of banks plan a structural expansion of their operations in SSA in the longer term. In the short run no banking group plans to consolidate operations in SSA any more. Half of the banking groups report being fully deployed in terms of general IT infrastructure but the majority of them are in deployment and planning deployment in terms of internet-banking technology, mobile banking and FinTech. The importance of strengthening the legal, regulatory and supervisory super-structure of SSA’s and North Africa’s financial sectors to promote financial intermediation cannot be overstated. Working out NPLs and resolving banks that cannot return to profitability will be key to underpinning the confidence that is necessary for private investment in SSA. Improving recovery and resolution laws in Africa would help to bring down funding costs and facilitate financial intermediation. Requiring banks to prepare recovery and resolution plans, which would subsequently need to be approved by regulators and maintained would be an important step forward. Similarly, introducing a well-defined recovery floor would also reduce uncertainty for investors as they would have a clear understanding of how their investment may be affected in a crisis management scenario. As financial inclusion for individuals and microenterprises advances, new challenges will emerge that will need to be addressed to ensure that financial deepening is fair, broad- based and sustainable. Consumer protection will be key to maintaining the confidence of first- time depositors and financial service users and to ensuring a level-playing field with regulated players. As SSA economies continue to recover, the opportunity to deepen the region’s financial sectors should not be missed even though some of the lowest hanging fruit have already been picked. Bringing down the financing needs of governments through fiscal consolidation and structural reform is key to freeing up space on banks’ balance sheets. In addition, continuing the broadening of the investor base for government paper through, for instance, developing local bond markets, would also reduce pressure on banks to hold large amounts of public debt. Enhancing banks’ capacity to assess risk and monitor their clients would reduce the perceived risks and facilitate financial intermediation. Helping clients to identify and present bankable projects would also raise lending to the private sector. Private sector development will require technical assistance and knowledge transfers, not just financing. This is a long-term investment that banking groups will ultimately find to their economic and financial advantage as they groom tomorrow’s larger and stronger clients - but the