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Uprchlická Populace a Zapojení Hizballáhu Do Syrského Konfliktu Jako Hrozba Pro Stabilitu Libanonu

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Uprchlická Populace a Zapojení Hizballáhu Do Syrského Konfliktu Jako Hrozba Pro Stabilitu Libanonu MASARYKOVA UNIVERZITA FAKULTA SOCIÁLNÍCH STUDIÍ KATEDRA POLITOLOGIE Uprchlická populace a zapojení Hizballáhu do syrského konfliktu jako hrozba pro stabilitu Libanonu Bakalářská práce Klára Šubíková Vedoucí práce: Mgr. Josef Kraus Ph.D. UČO: 426976 Obor: Bezpečnostní a strategická studia a Mezinárodní vztahy Imatrikulační ročník: 2013 Brno, 2017 Prohlášení o autorství práce Prohlašuji, že jsem bakalářskou práci na téma „Uprchlická populace a zapojení Hizballáhu do syrského konfliktu jako hrozba pro stabilitu Libanonu“ vypracovala samostatně a použila jen zdroje uvedené v seznamu literatury. V Brně 4. 1. 2017 Klára Šubíková Anotace Tato bakalářská práce se zabývá stabilitou Libanonu, státu kde je nejvyšší počet uprchlíků na obyvatele. Střetávají se zde saúdské a íránské vlivy a ve vládě sedí představitelé Hizballáhu - organizace, která je považována za teroristickou. Práce si klade za cíl odpovědět na otázku, jak a proč ohrožuje stabilitu státu příliv uprchlické populace a zapojení hnutí Hizballáh do bojů v Sýrii. Stabilita státu je zkoumaná ve čtyřech dimenzích - bezpečnostní, politické, ekonomické a společenské - posuzovaných na základě indikátorů Fragile State Indexu. Klíčová slova Libanon, uprchlíci, Hizballáh, transnacionalizace, válka v Sýrii, stabilita státu, Fragile State Index, společenská stabilita, politická stabilita, bezpečnostní stabilita, ekonomická stabilita Annotation This bachelor thesis focuses on the stability of Lebanon; a state with the highest ratio of refugees per capita. It is a country where collide Saudi and Iranian influences and where a recognized terrorist organization, Hezbollah, sits in the government. The aim of this thesis is to answer the question why and how do the refugee population and Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian conflict threaten the stability of the state. The stability of the state is described as a complex of four dimensions - security, political, economic and social - that are assessed by indicators of the Fragile State Index. Key Words Lebanon, refugees, Hezbollah, transnationalization, war in Syria, state stability, Fragile State Index, social stability, political stability, security stability, economic stability Obsah 1. Úvod ................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Teoretický rámec .............................................................................................................. 2 3. Metodologie ....................................................................................................................... 5 3.1. Konceptualizace pojmů ............................................................................................. 5 3.1.1. Hrozba ................................................................................................................... 5 3.1.2. Stabilita státu ......................................................................................................... 6 3.1.3. Uprchlická populace .............................................................................................. 8 4. Uprchlická populace jako hrozba pro stabilitu Libanonu ............................................ 9 4.1. Charakteristika uprchlické populace v Libanonu .................................................. 9 4.2. Uprchlická populace jako hrozba pro bezpečnostní stabilitu Libanonu ............ 10 4.3. Uprchlická populace jako hrozba pro politickou stabilitu Libanonu ................. 12 4.4. Uprchlická populace jako hrozba pro ekonomickou stabilitu Libanonu ........... 15 4.5. Uprchlická populace jako hrozba pro společenskou stabilitu Libanonu ........... 17 4.6. Závěrečné shrnutí kapitoly ..................................................................................... 19 5. Zapojení Hizballáhu do syrského konfliktu jako hrozba pro stabilitu Libanonu .... 21 5.1. Charakteristika hnutí Hizballáh ............................................................................ 21 5.2. Zapojení Hizballáhu do konfliktu v Sýrii .............................................................. 23 5.3. Zapojení Hizballáhu do konfliktu v Sýrii jako hrozba pro bezpečnostní stabilitu Libanonu .............................................................................................................. 26 5.4. Zapojení Hizballáhu do konfliktu v Sýrii jako hrozba pro politickou stabilitu Libanonu .............................................................................................................. 28 5.5. Zapojení Hizballáhu do konfliktu v Sýrii jako hrozba pro ekonomickou stabilitu Libanonu .............................................................................................................. 33 5.6. Zapojení Hizballáhu do konfliktu v Sýrii jako hrozba pro společenskou stabilitu Libanonu .............................................................................................................. 35 5.7. Závěrečné shrnutí kapitoly ..................................................................................... 37 6. Závěr ................................................................................................................................ 39 7. Použité zdroje .................................................................................................................. 41 8. Seznam příloh: ................................................................................................................ 49 1. Úvod Libanon je svou geografickou pozicí, demografií a historií úzce spojen se Sýrií, která je jedním z jeho dvou sousedů a s níž má také nejdelší hranici. Území obou zemí bylo rozděleno až Sykes-Picotovou dohodou, ale i tak patřilo pod jeden mandát, z nějž vznikly dva nezávislé státy v průběhu druhé světové války a po ní. Obě země jsou mozaikou různých etnik a náboženství, avšak v Libanonu je tato polarizace vyšší, když je stát rozdělen po náboženských liniích na sunnity, šíity a křesťany, z nichž tvoří polovinu maronité (Statistics Lebanon podle Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor 2012)1. Libanon už zažil krvavou občanskou válku spojenou se zhroucením státu a intervencemi od obou sousedů, když syrská vojska asistovala obnovení státu až do roku 2005, kdy byla odsunuta v souvislosti s vraždou expremiéra Rafíka Harírího. Sýrie nepřestala ovlivňovat dění v zemi ani po stažení svých vojsk, jelikož je na ni úzce napojeno hnutí Hizballáh, významný aktér libanonské (nejen) politické scény. Není tedy divu, že má na Libanon vliv i transnacionalizující se syrská občanská válka. Země hostí druhý největší počet syrských uprchlíků, který je daleko nevyšší na světě v poměru k počtu obyvatel. V konfliktu se také angažují jeho vlastní občané, a to jak coby nezávislí zahraniční bojovníci, tak příslušníci etablovaných militantních a teroristických uskupení, z nichž hraje největší roli domácí hnutí Hizballáh podporující prezidenta Asada. To vše za situace, kdy stát vůči stranám konfliktu zastává neutrální postoj. Proto si kladu tyto výzkumné otázky: Jak a proč ohrožuje uprchlická populace stabilitu Libanonu? Jak a proč ohrožuje zapojení Hizballáhu do konfliktu v Sýrii stabilitu Libanonu? Tato práce bude provedena jako případová studie, jejímž cílem je v co největší šíři popsat a vysvětlit, z jakých důvodů a jakým způsobem představují uprchlická populace a zapojení Hizballáhu do konfliktu v Sýrii hrozbu pro stabilitu Libanonu. Co se týče teorie, budu vycházet z Younga a kolektivu (2014), Salehyana (2009) a jeho společné studie s Gleditschem (2006), Peksena s Lounsberyovou (2012) a Mandela (2013). V jednotlivých 1 Z 54 % muslimů jsou dvě hlavní odnože zastoupeny rovnoměrně, 21 % jsou maronitští křesťané, 8 % obyvatel náleží k řecké ortodoxní církvi, 4 % se hlásí k řeckým katolíkům, 7 % jsou ostatní křesťanské církve, dalších 5% jsou drúzové a nepatrné zastoupení mezi Libanonci mají i židé, následovníci víry bahá’í, buddhisté, hinduisté a mormoni. Vše jsou odhady citované statistické firmy protože sčítání lidu proběhlo v Libanonu naposledy v roce 1932 a bylo vysoce zpolitizované. To se o vyznání Libanonců dá tvrdit dodnes a může to být důvodem pro neopakování sčítání lidu, jež by změnilo politickou mapu země, která na těchto údajích stojí. 1 kapitolách představím teoretický rámec, metodologii, uprchlíky jako hrozbu pro stabilitu Libanonu a zapojení Hizballáhu do konfliktu v Sýrii jako hrozbu pro stabilitu Libanonu. 2. Teoretický rámec Tato práce pohlíží na uprchlíky, kteří do Libanonu přišli v důsledku transnacionalizující se syrské občanské války, a na zapojení Hizballáhu do tohoto konfliktu jako na faktory, které přispívají k přelití konfliktu do této země, a proto je důležité se zaměřit na to, jak ohrožují stabilitu státu. Jsou to dva ze tří nejdůležitějších faktorů přelití konfliktu, jak je spolu s dalšími pěti dodatečnými okolnostmi charakterizovali Young a kolektiv (2014) ve své studii týkající se přímo šíření syrské občanské války do dalších zemí. Prvním faktorem, který zásadně přispívá k šíření konfliktu za hranice, je vnější intervence nebo podpora, a to jak opozici, tak státu. Dalším je příchod uprchlíků, kteří podle autorů mohou být dokonce příčinou konfliktu. Třetím významným faktorem je křehkost státu, co s konfliktním územím sousedí. Jde především o propustnost jeho hranic a schopnost poradit si s výzvami, jež s sebou přináší uprchlická populace. Dodatečnými faktory přispívajícími k šíření konfliktu jsou etnické propojení obou zemí (přímo úměrně), přístup ke svobodným médiím (umocňuje ostatní příčiny), pocit nejistoty (dohání
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