Energy and National Security–What’s the Connection?

Winter 2005 www.belfercenter.org Economy and Security: Belfer Center Explores Vital Connections

or more than 20 years, roundtables at the Graham Allison , director of the Belfer Center. FBelfer Center have had the benefit of con - “The connections between the two areas will tributions from 2005 Nobel Prize Laureate in continue to be central to Belfer Center Economics Thomas Schelling . Schelling, now research in the near and long term.” at the University of Maryland’s School of Pub - Economics giant Martin Feldstein , lic Policy, won the coveted prize for demon - described by Allison as “the greatest Fed chair - strating the influence of economics on national man we never had,” is once again leading an security by applying game theory to the man - extremely popular seminar on economics and agement of the Cold War. His contributions national security that brings together fellows, continue, along with those of others working faculty, and students from multiple disciplines at the Belfer Center on innovative solutions to to consider issues such as the nuclear weapons economy/security issues. market, dependence on foreign oil, and the defense industry. Connecting the Economy/Security Dots: Thomas Schelling (left), Martin Feldstein Former senior vice president and (center), and Ben Heineman (right) “[D]eciphering the dynamics of counsel for General Electric Ben Heineman the relationship [between eco - and investment pioneer Scott Delman cur - nomics and national security] is rently serve as senior fellows at the Belfer Cen - ter, working to develop closer relationships Stephen Walt analyzed economics as a compo - critical to understanding and between business experts and national security nent of American primacy in his recent book creating decisions of nations, specialists in the Harvard community and Taming American Power . companies and individuals.” elsewhere. Belfer Center fellows are researching these Economics is a central element in the con - general concepts in more specific areas. This cept of “soft power,” says Kennedy School research includes groundbreaking work by “The intersection of economics and Dean Emeritus Joseph Nye . “Understanding Rebecca Weiner on the implications of private national security is often viewed as a given, but economic leverage is vital to maintaining companies and corporate law on military pol - deciphering the dynamics of the relationship is national security interests,” he says, and some - icy, Ant Bozkaya on early stage financing of critical to understanding and creating decisions thing he continues to teach in his courses on technology development, and Emily Oster on of nations, companies, and individuals,” says soft power. Kennedy School Academic Dean the economics of disease and conflict.

Belfer Center Fellow Guides Harvard Assistance with New Orleans Revival R E

T n the wake of the Gulf Coast disaster, Ahlers has also participated in efforts at the N E

C Belfer Center fellow and New Orleans Kennedy School to learn from the failures in

R I E

F resident Doug Ahlers put Harvard tal - New Orleans. He and Kennedy School crisis L E

B ents to work, helping to rebuild the management experts Arnold Howitt and economy in the wake of catastrophe. Dutch Leonard contributed their expertise on After the floods, Ahlers was asked to join the decision making process, and former Mayor Ray Nagin’s “Bring New Orleans NORTHCOM Commander Barry McCaf frey Back” commission’s economic develop - (continued on page 5) ment committee. His position allowed him to guide a group of Harvard Busi - ness School and Kennedy School stu - In This Issue – dents, who visited the disaster area, and Reducing Energy Insecurity ...... page 3 put their education into practice by cre - Private Military Contractors . . . . . page 5 Afghanistan, Drugs, Terror ...... page 14 Looking Ahead: New Orleans resident and Belfer Center ating a business plan to bring economic Fellow Doug Ahlers (center) and Harvard Professor investment into New Orleans. The pro - Arnold Howitt (left) discuss “Lessons on Katrina” at a posal to establish a non-profit indepen - Upcoming – director’s lunch in December. Harvard Professor Dutch dent economic development corporation April 5: Robert Socolow, Co-director, Leonard (not shown) also took part in the presentation. to support the city has received the Carbon Mitigation Initiative Xenia Dormandy Belfer Center Executive Director attention of local, state, and national April 12: General James E. Cartwright, (right) and Harvard Visiting Scholar Marina McCarthy (2nd from left) were among those in attendance. leaders instrumental in the recovery Commander, U.S. Strategic Command effort. R E T N E C R

FROMTHE DIRECTOR E F L E B

nternational relations is not like Old Faith - Sims-Gallagher have been sought out for their Iful—predictable in how and when it will insights into the path ahead. Their thoughts on erupt. Instead we must constantly remain where we are going and how we will get there flexible and responsive, trying to recognize the have been featured on National Public Radio, difference between the headlines and the ABC, NBC, and other news outlets. The Presi - trendlines that will change the world. The dent’s comments open the door for energy Belfer Center is committed to focusing on the security proposals like those being discussed in most important emerging issues at the nexus of the symposium series arranged by Dan Schrag , science and international affairs. With limited director of Harvard’s Center for the Environ - attention and resources, where can we add the ment. “The Future of Energy” series features Liquid Gold Standard: Matt Simmons (right), most value? individuals like BP CIO Iain Conn and former president of Simmons and Company, Two new areas now under active explo - White House Chief of Staff . International and author of Twilight in the Desert: ration at the Center are economics and secu - The Belfer Center continues to extend its The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World rity and energy and security. reach to tackle critical international challenges. Economy, talks with anthropologist and former Martin Feldstein (George F. Baker Profes - Senator Bob Graham , who is a senior fellow Center Fellow Tim Weiskel and others sor of Economics, Director of the National with the Belfer Center this semester following following Simmons’ presentation on energy Bureau of Economic Research, and a member a semester at the Institute of Politics, is putting security at a Belfer Center director’s lunch in February. Simmons was the first presenter in the of the Center’s Board) is reviving the field of together a course to educate national leaders Center for the Environment economics and national security. In a year on the principles of intelligence. Bob Rotberg “Future of Energy” lecture series. when the Nobel Prize in Economics was will address the challenges in Sudan in an awarded to one of the Kennedy School’s upcoming conference. In January, I was pleased to join Institute founding fathers, Thomas Schelling , Marty’s The Belfer Center is pleased to welcome of Politics (IOP) Director Jeanne Shaheen and undertaking is well timed. Ben Heineman , Jeffrey Lewis as the new executive director of others at the IOP in introducing a new archive former general counsel for General Electric the Managing the Atom Project. He comes to of John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum events that will and a new senior fellow this semester, joins us from the Center for International and bring us all closer together virtually. Now you investment pioneer Scott Delman , also a Security Studies at the University of Mary - can watch presentations by former, present, senior fellow, in helping to build bridges land’s School of Public Policy, where he con - and future world leaders such as Nobel Laure - among Harvard’s faculty and research in eco - ducted groundbreaking research on China’s ate Mohamed ElBaradei , former Secretary of nomics, business, and security. nuclear policy. He also is a leading blogger on Defense Robert McNamara , and French Min - arms control and nonproliferation (www.arms ister of Defense Michele Alliot-Marie . If you controlwonk.com). We are looking forward to missed February’s Forum with Saudi Arabian The Belfer Center continues learning from Jeffrey’s insights into security Ambassador to the U.S. Prince Turki Al- to extend its reach to tackle policy. Faisal , you can check it out at critical international challenges. We also welcome new senior fellows http://ksgacc man.harvard.edu/iop/events_foru Rosemary Foot , a professor at Oxford Univer - m_listview.asp. Learning from others and sity and an expert in the relationship between spreading ideas is vital to the work we do, and In response to President Bush’s State of the counterterrorism and human rights, and we are pleased to support this IOP initiative. Union comments on energy, Belfer Center Chuck Freilich , former Israeli deputy national experts John Holdren , Henry Lee , and Kelly security adviser. Both are featured on this page. New Belfer Fellows Share Vital Expertise R he Belfer Center welcomes three new and share her views on the E T N

fellows who will share their expertise with ’ counterterrorist E T C R faculty and fellows in the coming months. actions and the consequences for E F L

Until this fall , Chuck Freilich was the human rights. E B Israeli deputy national security adviser involved Ben Heineman has come in issues of the peace process, terrorism, and from General Electric where he WMD proliferation. He teaches political sci - was GE’s general counsel and ence at Tel Aviv and Hebrew Universities and senior vice president for law and co-directs a Middle Eastern affairs consultancy. public affairs. He is also a distin - While at the Belfer Center, Freilich will share guished senior fellow at Harvard his experience on Israeli national security deci - Law School’s Program on the International Fellowship: Belfer Center Director Graham sion-making and write a book on the subject. Legal Profession. At the Center, Allison (right) with new fellows Ben Heineman (left), Rosemary Foot (center), and Chuck Freilich (2nd from right). Rosemary Foot , author of several books Heineman will conduct research that focus on the international relations of the and write on a wide variety of issue of the Center newsletter: Internet pioneer Asia-Pacific as well as on human rights issues, public and private sector issues, including the Doug Ahlers, investment expert Scott comes to the Belfer Center from Oxford Uni - global anti-corruption movement and corporate Delman, Brigadier General Kevin Ryan, versity where she is professor of international citizenship and social responsibility. and former U.S. Senator Bob Graham who relations and fellow of St. Antony’s College. Heineman, Foot, and Freilich join other spent the first semester as an Institute of While at the Belfer Center, Foot will research senior fellows who were welcomed in the fall Politics fellow.

2 • BCSIA News Experts Work to Put Energy Security on the Global Fast Track

hen explosions tore open the main are co-chairing a Council on Foreign Relations next generation of leaders. Wpipeline carrying gas from to study group on energy that will include Belfer “Energy security differs for different neighboring Georgia during extreme sub-zero Center experts. regions of the world,” says Henry Lee. “For weather in late January, Georgian officials developed countries, it means the ability to blamed Russia and Russia blamed Islamic mili - obtain sufficient energy supplies, at predictable tants. Whatever the cause, the effect was severe “Until such time as new prices, to maintain their present levels of eco - disruption of every aspect of Georgian life and technologies, barely on the nomic prosperity. For poor developing coun - heightening of international concerns about horizon, can wean us from our tries, it means the ability to obtain a modicum of energy to allow people to heat their homes, the multiple aspects of energy security. The dependence on oil and gas, we incident occurred on the heels of Russia’s clo - move their goods to market, irrigate their sure of gas pipelines to Ukraine over a dis - shall continue to be plagued by fields, and cook their food. For energy produc - agreement on pricing, a move that limited gas energy insecurity.” ing countries, it is the ability to insure a rev - to much of continental Europe. enue flow sufficient to pay for essential “Crises like that in Georgia and Ukraine government services. demonstrate the critical need for leaders in Schlesinger testified before the Senate For - In the 1970s, Lee says, energy security trig - energy and in security fields to work together,” eign Relations Committee in November on gered images of disruptions in foreign oil sup - says Belfer Center Director Graham Allison . “the quest for energy security.” His comments plies, “but the past three decades have taught “The Belfer Center is well-situated to look at included the following points: us that the term has much broader connota - the problem from multiple angles.” ¥ Until such time as new technologies, barely tions, including the damage of oil installations President George W. Bush’s comment on on the horizon, can wean us from our from natural disasters such as hurricanes, the America’s “addiction to oil” underscores the dependence on oil and gas, we shall con - impact of energy price increases on the rate of importance of work currently underway at the tinue to be plagued by energy insecurity. economic growth, and the tremendous volatil - Belfer Center with regard to energy security. ¥ Energy actions tend to be a two-edged ity in prices, which act as a disincentive to As part of that effort, the Center is working sword . . . recent higher prices for oil needed future investment.” closely with the Harvard University Center for reflect some of our own prior policies and the Environment (HUCE), which has actions. For example, the sanctions launched a major initiative to integrate all imposed upon various rogue nations . . . “Energy security differs for energy programs across Harvard to work on have resulted in higher prices. different regions of the world.” energy challenges. ¥ Unless we take serious steps to prepare for On the international front, Allison is co- the day that we can no longer increase pro - Commenting on the challenges that lie chairing a small working group on energy duction of conventional oil, we are faced ahead, John Holdren says, “The two great security with Russian Duma Deputy Andrei with the possibility of a major economic energy challenges facing the and Kokoshin . The short-term objective is to iden - shock—and the political unrest that would the world are how to reduce dependence on oil tify actions that can be recommended to the ensue. G8 for next July’s summit in St. Petersburg. and provide the energy needed to create and Defining energy security is essential to With Russia in the chair of the G8 this year, expand prosperity without wrecking global cli - developing ways to enhance it. To that end, President Putin has selected “energy security” mate with the carbon dioxide emissions from Environment and Natural Resources Program as the principal theme. The working group is fossil-fuel burning.” We need to double or Director Henry Lee and Science, Technology, exploring possible actions related to security of triple the government’s investments in energy- and Public Policy Director John Holdren con - nuclear power as well as oil, gas, and other technology innovation, Holdren says, and tinue to actively engage policymakers in deter - energy sources. accompany these innovations with policy mining their priorities while also training the “For peaceful nuclear energy to prosper,” actions. “In the United States,” he adds, “we need to greatly strengthen the corporate- R

Allison says, “dangerous nuclear materials must E T average fuel economy (CAFE) standards N

be secured. Thus, a secure nuclear fuel cycle E C for cars and light trucks, which have from cradle to grave is a necessary condition R E

F hardly been touched since the 1980s. In L

for a robust nuclear industry that is a signifi - E cant part of the total energy portfolio.” B the case of climate change, the United Former Secretary of Energy James States needs to embrace a mandatory, Schlesinger , who chairs the Belfer Center’s economy-wide approach to reducing International Council, and former Central greenhouse-gas emissions. Without such Intelligence Agency Director John Deutch , an approach, the United States will con - who serves on the Center’s Board of Directors, tinue to lag rather than leading the rest of the world in addressing this most dan - gerous of all our energy challenges.” R E T N E C

R Gearing Up: Harvard security, energy, and economics experts explore steps toward E F

L energy security during a Belfer Center working group meeting in February. Among E B the participants (in photo at left): Kennedy School Dean Emeritus Joseph Nye (left), Managing the Atom Senior Research Associate Matthew Bunn, Belfer Center Research Associate Micah Zenko , George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard Martin Feldstein . Additional participants (in photo above): Belfer Center Senior Fellow William Rosenberg (left), Environment and Natural Resources Program Director Henry Lee (center), and Research Director of the Harvard Electricity Policy Group and Raymond Plant Professor of Global Energy Policy in the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government William Hogan (right).

BCSIA News • 3 BELFER IN BRIEF

societal challenges in sci - L L E

In the Field B ence and technology. Sci - A Y D

ence, Technology, and N International Security Pro - A gram (ISP) Fellow Paul Public Policy Director John Kane is advising a group Holdren will chair the mandated by the United advisory board for Innova - Nations General Assembly tions with Belfer Center to survey countries that Director Emeritus Lewis contribute peacekeepers Branscomb as senior and to devise recommenda - editorial adviser. The jour - tions for a methodology on how best to reim - nal can be accessed at: burse these countries. He also recently http://mitpress.mit.edu published a report for the Ford Foundation on /catalog/item /default the results of a survey of American Veterans’ .asp?ttype=4&tid=65 views and involvement in foreign policy. Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government ISP Fellow Assaf Moghadam met in January Robert Stavins is editor of Preventive Actions: Belfer Center International Security Program Fellow with U.S. Ambassador to Israel and former Assaf Moghadam (left) with U.S. Ambassador to Israel and former the new Review of Environ - Center Fellow Richard Jones at the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv following Belfer Center Fellow Richard Jones and gave a mental Economics and Policy Moghadam’s presentation to embassy staff on suicide attacks. presentation on suicide terrorism to the (REEP ). REEP, which will embassy staff in Tel Aviv. He also presented on be published bi-annually , will fill a gap the globalization of suicide attacks at a confer - between the popular press and scholarly envi - Global Exchange ence “Current and Future Trends of Terrorism” ronmental and resource economics journals. The Belfer Center was well-represented at the organized by the National Security Studies 36th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Center at the University of Haifa. Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland in late Laura Sjoberg , joint fellow Researchers Explore Vital January. with ISP and the Kennedy International Issues Belfer Center Director School’s Women and Public Graham Allison and Sci - Policy Program, will co- Belfer Center Fellows Hassan Abbas, Vanda ence, Technology, and chair the 2006 International Felbab-Brown, and Michael Mousseau con - Public Policy Director Studies Association–West tributed chapters to the book The Making of John Holdren took part conference “Just Responses to Challenging a Terrorist: Recruitment, Training, and Root in a panel titled “Could a Times.” Causes. Hassan Abbas wrote “A Failure to Nuclear Bomb Go Off in Communicate: American Public Diplomacy Your City?” Other panel members included Belfer Center Lecturer in and the Islamic World” (Ch. 4); Vanda Felbab- Counter-Terrorism Coordinator of the Coun - Public Policy Dorothy Brown wrote “The Intersection of Terrorism cil of the EU Gijs M. de Vries , International Zinberg participated in the and the Drug Trade” (Ch. 12); and Michael Atomic Energy Agency Director Mohamed Airlies House conference Mousseau wrote “Terrorism and Export ElBaradei , Senator John Kerry , and Artistic “The Promise and Chal - Economies: The Dark Side of Free Trade” Director Peter Sellers . On a separate panel lenges of Medical Technol - (Ch. 13). titled “Who Picks Up the Tab?” Allison dis - ogy” in late January. With Senior Fellow Rosemary Foot wrote cussed natural disasters and terrorist attacks. scientists and policymakers “Prizes Won, Opportunities Lost: The U.S. Sultan of Oman Professor of International from the U.S. and EU countries, the meetings Normalization of Relations with China, Relations Joseph Nye headed a workshop on explored how nanotechnology would change 1972–1979,” a chapter in Normalization of global risk analysis and a session on whether the ways in which medical treatments would U.S.-China Relations: An International History , Russia is turning East. Nye, who serves on the be delivered and the importance of planning published by Harvard University Press in Janu - board of directors of the WEF’s Young Global joint regulatory procedures before new devel - ary 2006. Leaders Foundation, participated in a meeting opments are in place. Research Fellow Emily Oster published of the world’s “most extraordinary” young “Hepatitis B and the Case of the Missing leaders. Women” in the Journal of Political Economy in Belfer Center Director of Science, Technol - New Publications December 2005. The paper explores the rea - ogy and Globalization Calestous Juma took The Belfer Center has sons for the imbalanced male to female ratio part in a panel titled “Digital Inclusion: To ‘e’ joined forces with the in Asian countries, arguing that Hepatitis B in or Not to ‘e’.” The panelists discussed whether Kennedy School’s Ash Asian women skews the birthrate toward the private sector’s efforts to bridge the digital Institute and George males. divide have been successful. Mason University’s Center Research Associate Hui Zhang wrote Stephen Walt , Kennedy School academic for Science and Technology “Action/ Reaction: U.S. Space Weaponization dean and faculty chair of the Belfer Center’s Policy in developing a new and China” published in Arms Control Today in International Security Program, participated in journal , Innovations , which December 2005. The paper focuses on the a workshop “Shifting Sands: A New Balance of will be launched this China-U.S. relationship related to an arms race Power in the Middle East” and another on spring. The quarterly publication, which will in space. geopolitical risks. Prior to the WEF, Walt was be published in Chinese as well as English, in Budapest and Singapore where he discussed will focus on creative innovations to pressing the global response to U.S. primacy and his book Taming American Power . 4 • BCSIA News Private Military Contractors Come with Strings Attached

By Rebecca Ulam Weiner R E tary for injuries sustained in T s the invasion and reconstruction of Iraq N E have demonstrated, the burgeoning pri - battle, for instance, contractors C R

A E

can sue their employers. Last F vatized security industry has transformed the L E combat landscape. With a presence of some year, the families of four con - B 20,000 contractors working for an estimated tractors who were brutally 60 Private Security Firms (PSFs), the industry killed in Fallujah filed a wrong - has taken on increasingly core military func - ful death suit against the secu - tions in Iraq—selling not just security services, rity provider Blackwater, but strategic planning, combat training, inter - alleging that Blackwater put the rogation, and operational support. And due to men at risk by breaching corpo - the industry’s unique lack of accountability— rate protocol—and fraudulently to the legal system, Congress, the public, and covering it up. If the families even the Pentagon—it has attracted consider - prevail, the precedential effect able controversy in the process. What few peo - will be far more significant than ple realize, however, is that the PSF industry’s whatever punitive and compen - biggest liability may turn out to be what is satory damages Blackwater will Corporate Combat: Belfer Center Fellow and Harvard Law School claimed to be its primary advantage: cost. have to pay. With well over 200 Alumna Rebecca Ulam Weiner (left) with Margaret Sloane , contractor casualties in Iraq so Iraq weapons inspection specialist, and Brigadier General (ret.) far, the PSF industry is awaiting Kevin Ryan following Weiner’s presentation “White-Collar Soldiers serve their country; the Blackwater verdict with Warfare: Private Security Firms and the Corporate Combat Zone.” contractors serve their understandable apprehension. Unlike military commanders, PSFs must vide surge capacity. However, when the surge managers and shareholders. purchase life insurance for their contractors. turns out to be chronic and constant, this logic Not only does this impose enormous costs on should be re-examined. Because security contractors operate out - PSFs, it limits the range of activities that they In short, the PSF industry’s supporters and side the military chain of command as well as may undertake. When insurance rates its fiercest critics share an assumption: that most legal jurisdictions, they have been widely increased by upwards of 500 percent in the contractors allow for a forceful foreign policy characterized as rogue mercenaries with deep initial phases of the war, some firms were on the cheap and quiet. In reality, contractors pockets. After all, soldiers are subject to rules priced out of the market, leading to no-shows come with considerable strings attached, of engagement; contractors are governed only and contract breaches. Insurance premiums and these strings can prove costly and by the terms of their contracts. Soldiers serve currently account for up to 40 percent of over - cumbersome. their country; contractors serve their managers head for some PSFs, costs which are by many Rebecca Ulam Weiner, a lawyer and specialist in and shareholders. When soldiers break the law, accounts unsustainable. Without regulation, the implications of corporate law on military pol - they can be court-martialed. When contractors rates will not drop: PSFs engage in extremely icy, is an International Security Program fellow. break the law, they can be fired. risky activities in dangerous places. But as The extraterritorial activities and corporate these costs must be incorporated into contracts status of contractors makes them virtually in order to preserve profit margins, they come Belfer Center Fellow immune from U.S. federal law or international at great expense to the industry’s contracting (continued from page 1) treaties, and military law only applies to civil - partners. ians when there has been a formal declaration On the other hand, as corporations, PSFs discussed the military’s role at roundtable dis - of war. Using PSFs as force multipliers helps possess the leverage of private-sector mecha - cussions sponsored by the Belfer Center. Ahlers circumvent congressional troop caps—and, nisms for structuring incentives. While even will also work with the Kennedy School to because contractor casualties are not officially the most elite soldiers are compensated like lead a group of students in developing a gover - counted, it obscures the human cost of war. In mid-level bureaucrats, contractors are compen - nance project based on first-hand accounts short, PSFs give the government plausible sated like management consultants. The effect from residents and leaders in New Orleans. deniability, extending the arm of the state has been to cannibalize the military’s labor without leaving any fingerprints. pool—in particular the top echelon. Lured by Even still, PSFs do not in fact inhabit a salary increases of up to 400 percent, hundreds The Belfer Center will legal lacuna. They are beholden to a whole set of soldiers have decided not to re-enlist but to incorporate the many lessons of corporate imperatives—based on the calcu - “go private,” adding to the resentment of the lations of actuaries, civil liability to employees less-compensated and increasingly short- learned from Katrina into and shareholders, compliance with commercial handed force they leave behind. The Army has classes to educate the next regulations, and the eternal quest to preserve recently resorted to offering bonuses of up to generation of leaders. profit margins—that have accompanied the $150,000 as incentive for soldiers to stay. transformation of the battlefield into a labor Finally, there is the Pentagon’s preference market. Instead of corporate commandos run for “cost-plus” contracts, which treat PSFs as if As New Orleans continues its recovery, the amok, PSFs are better understood as a case they are on retainer—they respond quickly Belfer Center will incorporate the many study in the unintended consequences of pri - when they are needed, provide the service lessons learned from Katrina into classes that vatization. desired, and bill after the fact for the costs out - educate the next generation of leaders. Some As corporations, PSFs are subject to pri - laid, adding a fixed award on top. The result Belfer Center faculty and fellows and others vate-sector mechanisms for limiting exposure encourages neither cost-cutting nor enhanced from the Kennedy School are considering a to and mitigating risk, such as tort liability and performance. The rationale for using this form new project that uses Katrina as a model for insurance. While soldiers cannot sue the mili - of contract is efficiency: it allows PSFs to pro - improving future disaster preparation. BCSIA News • 5 R E T N E C R E

F Kelly Sims Gallagher L E B Q&A Kelly Sims Gallagher is director of the Belfer Center’s Energy Technology Innovation Project (ETIP). ETIP analyzes and promotes effective strategies for developing and deploying cleaner and more efficient energy technologies in three of the biggest energy-consuming nations in the world: China, India, and the United States. Gallagher was named director of the program in 2003.

importer. Forty percent of China’s oil is now source of greenhouse gas emissions as well. I imported, half from the Middle East. Cars and helped work out an agreement between the trucks are driving this growth. Last year, China U.S. EPA and China SEPA to address the adopted weight-based fuel-efficiency standards energy and environmental challenges related to that are especially hard on heavy vehicles like transportation in both countries. This agree - SUVs and pickups. The goal is to create an ment has led to a number of important joint incentive for manufacturers to build smaller, projects sponsored by the two agencies. Why did ETIP decide to focus on more fuel-efficient cars and to avoid an explo - One ETIP project tests the emissions of QChina? sion of SUVs and trucks. If we had the new cars that are on the road to better understand China has the fastest growing economy in the Chinese standards in the United States, half of why vehicle emissions are still high, and what history of the world. More than 250 million our SUVs and pickups would fail to meet the can be done about it. We are working with people in China have been lifted out of second phase of the standards. By raising auto - CATARC, U.C. Riverside, and Tsinghua on an poverty in the last 25 years. The improvements motive fuel-efficiency, the Chinese government emissions testing project in Tianjan and in the quality of life there have led to huge hoped to reduce China’s dependence on for - Shanghai. increases in electricity consumption and in the eign oil. Our research partner, CATARC, was in Is there any chance that China’s number of vehicles on the road—from fewer increased fuel-efficiency standards than a million in 1990 to more than 28 mil - charge of the development of the standards. Q Together with them and MOST, we organized will influence the United States to raise lion today. More cars mean more oil consump - its standards? tion, resulting in greater dependence on a series of four major workshops—two here at imported oil. China built about 100 gigawatts Harvard and two in China—and brought in Fuel-efficiency standards in the United States of new coal-fired power plants in the last two experts from around the world to share their have been stagnant since the 1980s. China’s years alone, which is roughly equivalent to the experiences with fuel-efficiency and air pollu - main motivation was concern about oil entire electricity generation system of India. As tion standards. Those workshops helped Chi - imports. The United States now imports 60 a result of all this growth, China’s greenhouse nese officials understand the lessons from prior percent of its oil, its highest level of depen - gas emissions are now second only to the international experience and the links between dence ever. If ever there were a time when the United States. energy use, fuel efficiency, air pollution, and U.S. government might act, it would be now In 2001, we hosted a top official, Xu Jing , greenhouse gas emissions. We’ve had a parallel with the high gas prices and level of oil imports. from China’s Ministry of Science and Technol - series of workshops on coal issues as well. ogy (MOST) here as a Visiting Scholar. He What is ETIP’s focus in India? helped us build relationships with organiza - “We’re going to bring together Q tions and universities in China that have auto manufacturers in China In collaboration with partners there, we are become our partners in helping China with its developing a road map for cleaner coal in energy challenges. Today, we are collaborating to assess the incentives and India as well as studying technological change with Tsinghua University, the China Automo - barriers to hybrid-electric in the passenger car industry. We have also tive Technology and Research Center technology.” assessed the potential for scaling up biomass (CATARC), and the China Coal Research gasification, which would be of great benefit to Institute. These partners in China have been India since approximately one-third of India’s essential to our efforts. I’ve worked hard to Now, we’re trying to help China further primary energy supply comes from traditional cultivate these relationships as have ETIP fel - reduce its oil consumption by increasing the biomass fuels, and better energy services are lows Hongyan He Oliver and Guodong Sun . use of hybrid-electric vehicles. We plan to co- needed for the poor. host a roundtable in Beijing this summer. ETIP played a major role in China’s We’re going to bring together auto manufac - You have a book coming out about recent adoption of vehicle fuel-effi - Q turers in China to assess the incentives and Qyour work in China: China Shifts ciency standards that are much stronger barriers to hybrid-electric technology. Gears: Automakers, Oil, Pollution, and than the U.S. standards. How were you able Development. Tell us a little about it. to accomplish this? We understand that you facilitated the My book explores the development of the auto first-ever agreement between China’s Q industry in China and its implications for State Environmental Protection Administra - energy, the environment, and economic “If we had the new Chinese tion and our own EPA on transportation growth. I was particularly interested in the role standards in the United States, issues. What did this mean for China and of foreign automakers, and how they might for the United States and what’s ETIP’s next half of our SUVs and pickups contribute to the modernization of the indus - step? would fail to meet the second try to help China “leapfrog” to more advanced phase of the standards.” While China now has higher fuel-efficiency technology. I used case studies to look at the standards, it still has relatively weak pollution- extent to which the U.S. Big Three transferred control standards. In the big Chinese cities, cleaner and more advanced technology to their China has become the second largest oil con - vehicles are now the largest source of urban joint venture partners in China during the sumer and the world’s fourth largest oil pollution and they are becoming a significant eighties and nineties. BCSIA News • 6 ProvidBing ELeaLdersFhipE. .R. AdvaSn R R R E E E T T T N N N E E E C C C R R R E E E F F F L L L E E E B B B

Two Roads: Ambassador Dennis Ross answers “What’s Next in the Middle Remembering Rights: Yemen’s Minister of Human Rights, East?” in the Belfer Center library in Amat Al-Aleem Alsoswa , discusses protection of December. Ambassador Ross played a human rights in an age of terrorism during a November lead role in the Middle East peace visit co-hosted by the Belfer Center’s Governance Superpower Science: China’s Vice process in both the George H. W. Bush Initiative in the Middle East and the Carr Center for Minister for Science and Technology and administrations. Human Rights. In December, she was named assistant Yong Shang , a former senior secretary-general, assistant administrator of United fellow with the Belfer Center’s Nations Development Programmes, and director of its Science, Technology, and Public Regional Bureau for Arab States. Policy program and the Mossavar- R E

T Rahmani Center for Business and N E

C Government, presents “China’s R

E New S&T Strategy and Policy” at a F L R E E Belfer Center lunch in December. B T

N Shang’s official responsibilities E C include formulation of strategies R E

F for China’s science and technology L E

B development and research.

Surprise Attacks: International Security Program Fellow Jacqueline Newmyer speaks on war initiation and strategic surprise to colleagues in the Belfer Center Nuclear Family? Senior Associate at the library in January. She co-taught a seminar Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “Strategies of Tyrants” in Harvard’s and formerly the National Security Council’s Department of Government during the fall Special Assistant to the President and Senior semester. Director for Strategic Planning in Southwest Asia Ashley Tellis discusses “The Bush Administration, India, and Civil Nuclear R E

Cooperation” with the Belfer Center Board T N

of Directors in November. E C R E F L E B R E T N E C R E F L E B Facts from the Front: General Ralph E. “Ed” Eberhart , commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, presents “Homeland Security and Homeland Defense” to Belfer Center faculty and Strategic Alliance: Belfer Center Executive Director for Research the broader Harvard community in Xenia Dormandy presents “A New U.S.-India Alliance—Why November. Eberhart is the first Bother?” to faculty and students in November. Dormandy was commander of NORTHCOM, a director for South Asia at Security Council in 2005 combatant command created by when the United States formed a groundbreaking strategic President George W. Bush in the partnership with India. Seated next to her is Roy J. Glauber , wake of the September 11 attacks. recipient of the 2005 Nobel Prize in Physics.

7 • BCSIA News SncPingEPolAic y-RKelevEantRKnoS wledge R T E R T A N W E E C T S R E A F H L E T B R A M

Nobel Thoughts: International Atomic Energy Agency Director General and 2005 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Mohamed ElBaradei (left) with Harvard’s Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics and winner of the 2005 Nobel Bio-Prepared: George Washington University Distinguished Prize in Physics Roy J. Glauber at a reception following ElBaradei’s Professor of Microbiology and Immunology Ken Alibek speaks to Kennedy School Forum presentation on nuclear nonproliferation in Kennedy School students and Belfer Center fellows on “The November. Future of Chemical and Biological Weapons” in November. Alibek served as first deputy chief of the civilian branch of the Soviet Union’s offensive biological weapons program. Next to Alibek is Cabot Professor of the Natural Sciences and

R Belfer Center Board member Matthew Meselson . E Overseas Update: T N

E General Barry C

R McCaffrey , former E T F R

L director of the A E B White House Word from the W E T

Office of National Kingdom: His S A

Drug Control Royal Highness H T R

Policy and Prince Turki A adviser to the Al-Faisal , M administration, Saudi Arabia’s Congress and the ambassador to military, speaks at a the United director’s seminar States, is joined on his involvement by Belfer in NATO’s Center Board counterterrorism working group. International Security Program Member John Director Steven Miller listens to McCaffrey at the January event co- Deutch . The sponsored by the Kennedy School’s National Security Program. ambassador presented “Facing Global Challenges Together” at the Kennedy School Forum during his visit in February. R

E Advancing Knowledge: The Belfer Center celebrates recent T

N publications of the Center’s faculty and affiliates at a book E C reception in November. Authors attending included (top left to R E

F right): Juliette Kayyem , co-author of Protecting Liberty in an Age L E

B of Terror ; Sean Lynn-Jones , series editor of the BCSIA Studies in International Security Book Series, which published Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett ’s Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences and Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder ’s Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War ; Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier , authors of Securing the Bomb 2005: The New Global Imperatives ; Ivan Arreguin-Toft , author of How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict ; Philip Heymann , co-author (with Juliette Kayyem) of Protecting Liberty ; and (middle left to right) Kelly Sims-Gallagher , representing Theo De Bruijn and the late Vicki Norberg-Bohm , editors of Industrial Transformation: Environmental Policy Innovation in the United States and Europe ; Debbie West , representing Robert I. Rotberg , editor of Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa ; and Stephen M. Walt , Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy . In the front row (left to right) are: Karen Motley , executive editor of the BCSIA Studies in International Security book series and organizer of the reception; Belfer Center Director Graham Allison ; and Belfer Center Executive Director for Research Xenia Dormandy . Celebrated in absentia were authors Calestous Juma , lead author with LeeYee-Cheong of the publication Innovation: Applying Knowledge in Development , the final report of the UN Millennium Project’s Task Force on Science, Technology, and Innovation; and Robert N. Stavins , editor of The Political Economy of Environmental Regulation .

8 • BCSIA News E C I F F O S W

E Dan Schrag N D R

A SPOTLIGHT

V Professor of Earth and Planetary Science Dan Schrag is director of the Harvard University R A

H Center for the Environment (HUCE). Schrag’s work with HUCE intersects with Belfer Center / E S

A efforts in several areas. Schrag teaches science and policy classes with John Holdren, director of H

C the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, and takes part in discussions N

H sponsored by the Center on issues related to the environment and security. He is a member of the O J Belfer Center’s energy security working group which is exploring with Russian counterparts ways in which this year’s G8 summit, chaired by Russia, can make advances in global energy security. The Belfer Center is supporting a major seminar series organized by HUCE to debate critical issues related to energy.

s director of the Harvard University Shortly after receiving the MacArthur School and School of Design. “The Center for ACenter for the Environment (HUCE), grant, Schrag took the first of what would be the Environment will be the connector for the Dan Schrag is in his element. His work is to many steps toward fulfilling one of his major various faculty scattered around the university, bring people together—scholars, researchers, objectives of bringing scholars together to dis - “Schrag says, “and will encourage interaction teachers, and students from diverse fields and cuss the intersection of science and policy. across disciplines, with all working on various departments at Harvard, along with other He and Holdren began hosting a weekly issues related to energy—energy technology, leaders in relevant fields—to delve into, brainstorming breakfast that continues to energy and health, energy and design, energy debate, and recommend research and policies attract a range of science and policy scholars efficiency, energy security.” related to the environment and its many inter - and practitioners. actions with human society. “For me, science is a social process,” Dan Schrag is a paleoclimatologist with a back - Schrag said in 2001 when he accepted the “[T]he impacts of climate ground in geology, geophysics, geochemistry, James B. Macelwane Medal. “Ideas are created change are likely to be much chemical oceanography, and public policy. His and refined from conversations with others,” more severe than most predic - interest in science began in high school when he said. “Arguments are framed, assumptions he published his first scientific paper. As an are questioned, but all through time spent tions suggest. There will be sur - undergraduate at Yale he majored in geology with colleagues and friends.” prises…” and political science, went to Berkeley for a Ph.D. in geochemistry, joined the Princeton faculty in 1994 where he focused on ancient “There is a national crisis of To engage energy experts beyond the Har - climates, and moved to Harvard in 1997 intellectual capital in energy vard community, HUCE began a major sym - posium series in February, “the Future of where he began expanding his interest to research . . . Harvard has include modern climates and climate change. Energy,” which brings a variety of leaders from Schrag’s current research involves finding an obligation to grow the industry, government and academia to present geologic locations that might be appropriate next generation of scholars their perspectives. The Belfer Center is sup - porting this initiative and organizing brain - for containing the huge amount of carbon that in this area.” will be captured from burning coal if the new storming sessions between these visitors and technology of coal gasification (a process being students, faculty, and fellows. investigated by the Belfer Center to reduce Schrag’s agenda at the Center for the Envi - Schrag feels that his work with energy is greenhouse gases) is widely implemented. ronment includes ideas and actions. A major significantly linked with security and climate In 2000, Dan Schrag’s work in oceanogra - HUCE goal for the next decade is a university- change. “The best information I can get from phy and climatology led to his being named a wide energy initiative. “There is a national cri - the geologic record says that the impacts of cli - MacArthur Fellow. He was presented with the sis of intellectual capital in energy research,” he mate change are likely to be much more severe “genius grant” for “exceptional creativity, says, “and Harvard has an obligation to grow than most predictions suggest. There will be promise for important future advances based the next generation of scholars in this area.” surprises; I can’t predict exactly what these will on a track record of significant accomplish - Schrag believes that low energy prices during be, but there will be surprises. We need to take ments, and potential for the fellowship to facil - the past few decades led to a deficit of energy climate change seriously and do everything itate subsequent creative work.” Schrag was scholars, noting that most current faculty who possible to slow it down and reduce its notified of the award by Science, Technology, focus on energy became interested in the field impact.” and Public Policy Program Director John Hol - in the 1970s when high oil prices spiked a Harvard’s Geological Museum, where dren , a former recipient of the prestigious recession. HUCE is addressing this shortage HUCE is located, features a global climate award and a long-time friend and mentor. directly through an Environmental Fellows change exhibit designed by Schrag. The exhibit Among the works that earned Schrag the Program, which brings bright post-doctoral includes an interactive video presentation in MacArthur grant was his research with Har - fellows to Harvard to work closely with faculty. which Schrag poses questions and allows visi - vard Professor of Geology Paul Hoffman sup - Building on the belief that energy chal - tors to make decisions about how much they porting the theory that the Earth was lenges can only be solved if all sectors are would be willing to do to protect the planet. episodically frozen between 750 and 500 mil - engaged, HUCE is working to secure funding These are questions Schrag poses in a book he lion years ago (known as “Snowball Earth”), for new appointments in energy research at is writing, questions he plans to keep asking immediately before a burst of diversification of each of Harvard’s relevant departments—from and working with colleagues to answer. plants and animals that formed the basic blue - the Kennedy School and Division of Engineer - prints for many living things today. ing and Applied Sciences to the Business

BCSIA News • 9 International Security • EnvironmeNnt andENaWtural ResSourMces In January, Belfer Center Senior Fellow Doug Ahlers “THE UNITED STATES IS LOSING its “A RISE IN THE OIL PRICE COULD was part of the National competitive advantage and may soon lose its HAPPEN AGAIN AT ANY TIME. There is Democratic Institute/Carter innovative edge. It does not invest fully in little spare capacity in global oil production Center delegation to observe resources most critical for sustained high-tech and oil demand is rising rapidly in China and the Palestinian elections, a leadership, and the most talented and produc - other Asian countries. . . . The US was lucky group that included Institute of Politics tive regions of the Third World challenge our after 2003 to escape the contractionary effect Director Jeanne Shaheen. Ahlers spent a dominance with skills and efforts only we once of an oil price rise even without an explicit week in December observing the Egyptian possessed.” change in monetary or fiscal policy. It would parliamentary elections and researching use not be so lucky if a big oil price increase hap - of the Internet and mobile phone networks —Lewis M. Branscomb , “Innovate or pened again now.” as political campaign tools leading up to Perish,” Los Angeles Times (1 January 2006) the election. —Martin Feldstein , “America Will Fall “SOME STATES MAY PURSUE ENRICH - Harder if Oil Prices Rise Again,” Financial MENT and reprocessing technologies for non- Times (3 February 2006) International Security Pro - economic reasons such as building nuclear gram Fellow James Bieda weapons, developing naval nuclear propulsion, “AFRICA HAS MADE DRAMATIC was selected by the Air Force or boosting national pride. The multinational DEMOCRATIC STRIDES in recent years. in December for promotion supply regime must therefore include punitive Over the last 15 years, more than 30 countries to the grade of . measures against these ‘holdouts.’” have abandoned one-party dictatorships in Prior to his term at the Belfer —Ashton Carter , “A Fuel-Cycle Fix,” Bulletin favour of variants of multi-party democracy . . . Center, Bieda was chief of the Communica - of Atomic Scientists (January/February 2006) In nascent African democracies, party plat - tions and Information Division at 3rd Air forms would help facilitate effective and Force Headquarters, RAF Mildenhall, UK. “WHILE RECENT U.S. CONGRES - accountable political parties. They are blue - SIONAL REPORTS have focused on the rise prints for the future . . . thus helping profes - of China’s economic and military power, far sionalise the political process. Former Belfer Center Fellow less attention has been paid to the rise of —Calestous Juma and Allison DiSenso , Maury Devine was China’s soft power. Yet in a global information “Political Parties as Tools of Democracy,” Daily knighted by the King of age, soft sources of power such as culture, Nation (Kenya) (11 January 2006) Norway in November and political values, and diplomacy are part of presented the “Royal Norwe - what makes a great power. Success depends not “INSTEAD OF DOCTRINALLY CLING - gian Order of Merit,” the only on whose army wins, but also on whose ING TO ERADICATION, the international highest award given to non-Norwegians for story wins.” community should explore other means of contributions to Norway. Devine is former —Joseph S. Nye , “The Rise of China’s Soft decreasing Afghanistan’s illicit economy, such president of Mobil Oil North Sea and has Power,” Wall Street Journal Asia (29 December as converting the still vast opium cultivation served on boards of several Norwegian 2005) into legal production for medical opiates. The organizations. idea of transforming the cultivation for the “AMERICANS SPEND ABOUT $3 BIL - production of codeine and morphine is pro - LION A YEAR ATTEMPTING AND FAIL - moted by the Senlis Council, a European drug Calestous Juma , director of ING to expunge the Afghan poppy crop. The policy think tank. Pointing to the successful the Belfer Center’s Science, conclusions of a Kennedy School of Govern - implementation of such a scheme in Turkey, Technology and Globaliza - ment project on Afghanistan estimate that pro - where it eliminated the large illegal cultivation tion Project, was elected to viding annual guarantees for purchases of of opium, the Senlis advocates ask: Why not The Academy of Sciences for wheat at triple the world price would cost less Afghanistan?” the Developing World than eradication.” (TWAS) for his contributions to policy —Vanda Felbab-Brown , “Afghanistan and research and his work on the implications —Robert I. Rotberg , “Sowing Afghan Secu - Opium,” Boston Globe (18 December 2005) of biotechnology for sustainable develop - rity,” Boston Globe (10 January 2006) ment in Africa. The principal aim of TWAS is “to promote scientific capacity and excellence for sustainable development in the South.” At press time, the Belfer Center Former Belfer Center Research announced the appointment of Assistant and Russia Specialist Belfer Center Senior Fellow Jeffrey Lewis as executive direc - Marcy McCullaugh won an Senator Bob Graham was tor of the Managing the Atom international essay contest for honored in January with the project. Lewis is a postdoctoral her paper “How NGOs respond “Woodrow Wilson Award fellow at the University of when the state does not: Con - for Public Service,” pre - Maryland’s Center for International and Secu - fronting the problem of HIV/AIDS in Russia.” sented by the Smithsonian rity Studies and author of the forthcoming The annual contest is sponsored by the Institution’s Woodrow Wilson International Minimum Means of Reprisal: China’s Search for Association for the Study of Health and Center for Scholars. The award was created Security in the Nuclear Age (MIT Press, 2006). Demography in the former Soviet Union. to recognize people who share the 28th president’s dedication to “enlightened and deliberate dialogue.”

10 • BCSIA News M• SAcienceK, TecEhnolRogy, Sand Public Policy • Intrastate Conflict The Nixon Center’s “2005 Distinguished Service “GREAT POWER CONCERT IS POSSI - “WHO COULD HAVE IMAGINED U.S. Award” was presented in Jan - BLE INVOLVING THE UNITED STATES, victory over its Cold War rival with a whimper uary to Belfer Center Inter - the United States, European Union, Russia, rather than a bang? The tectonic collapse of national Council Chairman China, Japan and India. The eastern and west - one pole of a bipolar international system with and America’s first Secretary ern mainstays of co-operation are the U.S. and so few aftershocks? . . . Russia is still the land of Energy James Schlesinger and to Sena - Europe on one side, and China on the other. of the Matrushkas and Potemkin’s village is tor Pete Domenici, chairman of the Senate Together they act to maintain peace among much more subtle and complex than we real - Committee on Energy and Natural great powers and to prevent terrorism and the ize. One peels off one shell only to find Resources. Secretary of Energy Samuel W. further spread of nuclear weapons.” another each layer embodying elements of Bodman delivered the keynote address at —Richard Rosecrance , “Two Patient Powers, truth, competing with contradictory realities the awards dinner in Washington, D.C. One Peaceful World,” Toronto Star (20 both within and beyond.” December 2005) —Graham Allison , “Fourteen Years After Evil Empire, A Stable Russia,” Boston Globe (26 Energy Technology Innova - “THE NEW MARTYRDOM IS DRIVEN December 2005) tion Project (ETIP) Fellow BY HUMILIATION that differs significantly Jennie Stephens was named from the concrete grievances of traditional sui - “THE PRACTICAL REALITY, HOWEVER, assistant professor of Envi - cide bombers. The motives of the bombers of IS that Hamas is a pivotal player in Palestinian ronmental Science and Policy Bali, London, and most probably those of politics, and no peace process can succeed in the Department of Inter - Amman are not rooted in the humiliation of a without at least the tacit acceptance of its lead - national Development, Community, and personally experienced occupation. Many of ers. Moreover, Hamas’s participation in Pales - Environment at Clark University in 2005. today’s martyrs, in fact, have enjoyed a rela - tinian politics is not necessarily a bad thing, tively comfortable upbringing. Theirs is a suf - and resisting it will very likely do more harm fering and humiliation felt vicariously through than good.” Kennedy School Associate the calamities of their brethren in Iraq and —Fotini Christia , “Hamas at the Helm,” New Professor of Public Policy Palestine.” York Times (27 January 2006) Monica Duffy Toft was —Assaf Moghadam , “The New Martyrs Go appointed to the Belfer Cen - Global,” Boston Globe (18 November 2005) “WHAT IS CLEAR, THOUGH, IS THAT ter Board of Directors in Jan - PROJECT 100,000 WAS A FAILED uary. A faculty associate at “IF RUSSIA IS GOING TO THROW ITS EXPERIMENT. It proved to be a distraction the Belfer Center for five years, Toft also WEIGHT AROUND, it is better to have for the military and of little benefit to the men serves as associate director of Harvard’s Olin allies among those affected. The key to energy it was created to help. Forty years later, amid Institute for Strategic Studies. security is diversity—of pipelines as well as new conflicts and a renewed manpower short - sources of supply. Small neighbors without fall, we would do well not to make the same options will suffer, but Europe may not.” mistake again.” Kennedy School Academic —Joseph S. Nye , “The Chimera of Russia’s —Kelly M. Greenhill , “Don’t Dumb Down Dean and Belfer Center Pro - Gas Power,” Yemen Times (23 January 2006) the Army,” Times (17 February fessor Stephen Walt is a 2006) finalist for the prestigious “WITHOUT . . . A CLEAR-CUT SET OF “2005 Lionel Gelber Prize” CONDITIONS and unmistakable interna - “INDIA TODAY HAS A LARGER MIDDLE for his book Taming Ameri - tional attention, the militarization of Palestin - CLASS than the combined population of can Power : The Global Response to U.S. Pri - ian society will intensify, affect the Israeli France, Germany and Britain. And that middle macy. The annual award recognizes the top elections adversely, and point the way to a class is rapidly increasing. The US is India’s piece of writing in international affairs. The grim future.” largest trading partner.” winner will be announced in March. —Dennis Ross , “The Danger of a Sharon —Robert Blackwill , “Forging Fresh Bonds,” Exit,” USA Today (24 January 2006) The India Times (27 February 2006) Belfer Board Member and former U.S. Deputy Secre - tary of Defense John White was named Robert and Renée Belfer Lecturer at the International Security Program International Security Program Kennedy School of Govern - Fellow Sebastian Rosato has Fellow Todd Sechser will take ment in January. The Belfer Lectureship is accepted a position as assistant on new duties next fall as assis - awarded to a scholar who demonstrates a professor of political science at tant professor at the University distinguished contribution within the acad - the University of Notre Dame. of Virginia’s Department of Pol - emic community and as a policy practi - Rosato, whose research at the itics. While at the Belfer Center, tioner. White, a former director of the Belfer Center has focused on twentieth century Sechser researches bargaining and diplomacy, Kennedy School’s Mossavar-Rahmani Cen - European integration, is in the process of military doctrine and civil-military relations, ter for Business and Government, has been preparing a book manuscript entitled The the effectiveness of military threats in interna - a public policy lecturer at the Kennedy Strategic Logic of European Integration . He will tional crises, and the consequences of nuclear School since 1998. take up his new post in August. proliferation.

BCSIA News • 11 HOT OFF Forthcoming Uncertainty Underground: Yucca Mountain and the Nation’s High-Level Nuclear Waste THE PRESSES Edited by Allison M. Macfarlane and Rodney C. Ewing Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa on the other. When done well, assessments have The MIT Press, forthcoming May 2006 a positive impact on public policy, the strategic Edited by Robert I. Rotberg Despite approval by Congress and the Bush decisions of private firms, and, ultimately, the Brookings Institution Press and the World Peace administration and over $7 billion already quality of life for many people. Foundation spent, the Yucca Mountain, Nevada site for Although Afghanistan and “Establishes a useful framework for disposal of highly radioactive spent nuclear Iraq are at the epicenter judging experiences in the design and fuel is not yet in operation. The reasons for of America’s war on ter - use of past assessments and presents the delay lie not only in citizen and activist ror, terrorist groups those evaluations as a guide for future opposition to the project but also in the threaten other parts of assessments.” numerous scientific and technical issues that remain unresolved. the world as well. One of — David H. Moreau, University of North the most dangerous is the Carolina at Chapel Hill “[A] well-chosen set of articles by greater Horn of Africa technical experts . . . ” region—Djibouti, Eritrea, The Limits of Culture: “Macfarlane and Ewing have Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Islam and Foreign Policy and the Sudan, along with compiled a well-chosen set of arti - Yemen, their volatile neighbor. Al Qaeda has BCSIA Studies in International Security cles by technical experts describ - already struck in the region, and the area’s com - Edited by Brenda Shaffer ing the technology and regulatory plex history, shared poverty, poor governance, The MIT Press process for developing the Yucca underdevelopment, and renowned resistance In recent years, analysts of Mountain repository. The authors against Western colonizers have created an intri - world affairs have sug - present arguments that Yucca cate web of opportunity for potential terrorists. gested that cultural inter - Mountain has not been and ests—ethnicity, religion, may never be shown to be an “[T]here is no substitute for appropriate repository for high- greater U.S. involvement in any and ideology—play a pri - mary role in patterns of level radioactive waste. Opponents and all forums.” conflict and alliances, and of the project should read this “In this timely book, Robert Rotberg that in the future the book for support; supporters, to and his co-authors provide authorita - “clash of civilizations” will understand the obstacles to be tive insight into the struggle against dominate international overcome.” terrorism in the Horn, analyzing what relations. The Limits of —John F. Ahearne, former chairman, U.S. has been done and what work Culture explores the effect of culture on foreign Nuclear Regulatory Commission remains. The contributors—prominent policy, focusing on countries in the geopolitically scholars and practitioners, including important Caspian region and paying particular The Roots of Terrorism attention to those states that have identified several current and former U.S. The Roots of Terrorism Series ambassadors—argue that Washington themselves as Islamic republics—Iran, Taliban Afghanistan, and Pakistan. By Assaf Moghadam needs to craft a nuanced new policy The contributors to The Limits of Culture find Chelsea House, forthcoming May 2006 appropriate to the region and its indi - that, contrary to the currently popular view, cul - vidual countries. They stress that there The Roots of Terror - ture is rarely more important than other factors ism guides the reader is no substitute for greater U.S. in shaping the foreign policies of countries in the involvement in any and all forums.” through the many fac - Caspian region. As the essays in The Limits of Cul - tors that give rise to —The Publisher ture make clear, the emerging foreign policies of terrorism, demonstrat - the Caspian states present a significant challenge ing that it is ultimately Assessments of Regional and Global to the culturalist argument. the interaction of Environmental Risks: Designing Processes “[T]his volume helps us understand these factors that for the Effective Use of Science in Decision - the specific conditions under which brings about terrorist making culture does—and, perhaps more attacks. This broad Edited by Alexander E. importantly, doesn’t—matter” overview of the root Farrell and Jill Jäger causes of terrorism is designed to teach an RFF Press “Across the stretch of territory that appreciation of the complexities of this used to be called the Near East, from social phenomenon, while exposing com - As environmental chal - the eastern Mediterranean to the monly held yet erroneous beliefs that lenges grow larger in scale Central Asian steppe, facile culturalist might otherwise be construed as easy and implications, it is explanations for political behavior are explanations. increasingly important to once again in vogue. . . . Blood, belief, apply the best scientific “This comprehensive title is a and belonging can be important at useful tool for students who want knowledge in the deci - times, but this volume helps us under - sionmaking process. Edi - to understand the origins of ter - stand the specific conditions under tors Farrell and Jäger rorism and how it has evolved which culture does—and, perhaps present environmental assessments as the bridge through time.” more importantly, doesn’t—matter.” between the expert knowledge of scientists and —The Publisher engineers on the one hand and decisionmakers —Charles King, Georgetown University 12 • BCSIA News Carter Urges Congress to Consider Benefits of U.S.–India Nuclear Agreement By Gretchen Bartlett

reventive Defense Project Co-Director The United States, he said, would be giving PAshton Carter appeared before the Sen - Carter: View U.S.–India deal ground on the nuclear front in exchange for ate Foreign Relations Committee in November “through a larger lens.” benefits of a larger strategic partnership with to comment on the implications of the July India. Carter suggested benefits might include 18, 2005 Joint Statement between the United assistance with curbing Iran’s nuclear program, States and India committing both countries to Nonproliferation Treaty, which Carter co- serving as a potential strategic counterweight to cooperate in the area of civil nuclear power. chairs, was asked to review the Bush-Singh China, assistance in managing future crises India, one of the countries never to have deal and recommend to the Congress whether involving Pakistan, military access and basing signed the NPT, tested nuclear weapons in to support or reject the Bush initiative. rights, and preferential access to the Indian 1974 and 1998 and is barred by U.S. law and Although Carter cautioned that the market for the U.S. nuclear and defense international convention from engaging in any U.S.–India deal was premature and may come industries . nuclear commerce with the United States. at appreciable cost to U.S. nonproliferation Gretchen Bartlett is associate director of the The Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s efforts in other critical regions, he stressed the Preventive Defense Project. NPT Policy Advisory Group on the Nuclear need to view the deal “through a larger lens.”

Strengthening Ties: Preventive Y D

Munich Conference Focuses on Security, N

Defense Program Co-director U M

By Gretchen Bartlett Ashton Carter (left), Supreme L

U.S.–European Partnership E

Allied Commander Europe U M A s a delegate to the 42nd Munich Conference on Security Policy in General James Jones (center), S L

and Senator John McCain E February, Preventive Defense Project Co-director Ashton Carter N A O

(right) discuss issues raised L

met with defense and foreign ministers from around the globe to discuss O

during the 42nd Munich C the transatlantic relationship between Europe and the United States and Conference on Security Policy how best to restore this key partnership. The delegation, led by Senators in February. They were among John McCain and Joseph Lieberman , took part in discussions on top - the high-level officials and experts taking part in the conference which ics ranging from global challenges for German foreign and security pol - examined topics ranging from global challenges for German foreign and icy to NATO’s future role in international peace keeping and global security policy to NATO’s future role in international peace keeping and foreign policy and security interests in Asia. global foreign policy and security interests in Asia.

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations. WINTER 2006 The journal is edited at the Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions may Vol. 30, No. 3 be directed to: [email protected] Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity consider the implications of the Libya case for States chose to rely on special forces, air - and the War in Iraq theories of force and diplomacy—particularly power, and Afghan allies. In the operation, Since the , U.S. policymakers have coercive diplomacy—and U.S. policy toward Iran approximately fifty U.S. special forces person - worried that the American public will support and North Korea. nel accomplished what planners had believed military operations only if the human costs of would require 50,000 U.S. ground troops. In the war, as measured in combat casualties, are Deterring Terrorism: It Can Be Done the wake of the war, military planners largely minimal. Christopher Gelpi and former Robert F. Trager of Oxford University and dismissed the Afghan model as unworkable Belfer Center Fellow Peter D. Feaver of Dessislava P. Zagorcheva of Columbia Univer - elsewhere. The performance of the model in Duke University, together with Jason Reifler sity examine the role of deterrence in counter- Afghanistan and later in Iraq, however, demon - of Loyola University Chicago, challenge this terrorism strategies. Their analysis of the strates that the traditional military’s pes - notion. Although the public is rightly averse to structure of terrorist networks and the simism toward this method is unwarranted. suffering casualties, the level of popular sensi - processes that produce attacks, as well as the Indeed, the model vastly improves U.S. lever - tivity to U.S. military casualties depends criti - multiple objectives of terrorist organizations, sug - age in coercive diplomacy and war because it cally on the context in which those losses gests that many terrorist groups and elements of requires few U.S. ground troops and facilitates occur. The public’s tolerance for the human terrorist support networks can be deterred from the transition to stability and democracy by costs of war is primarily shaped by the inter - cooperating with the some of the world’s most empowering indigenous allies. section of two crucial factors: beliefs about threatening terrorist groups, including al Qaeda. the rightness or wrongness of the war, and The authors offer an analysis of U.S. and Philip - Allies, Airpower, and Modern Warfare: beliefs about the war’s likely success. The pine policy toward the Moro Islamic Liberation The Afghan Model in Afghanistan and impact of each depends on the other. Ulti - Front and the Abu Sayyaf Group to illustrate Iraq mately, however, beliefs about the likelihood both the potential of this approach and the risks Unlike Andres, Griffith, and Wills, Stephen D. of success matter most in determining the of using force. Biddle of the U.S. Army War College finds the applicability of the Afghan model to be public’s willingness to tolerate U.S. military Winning with Allies: The Strategic Value of deaths in combat. more limited. Where U.S. allies have had skills the Afghan Model and motivation comparable to their enemies,’ Who “Won” Libya? The Force- When the war in Afghanistan ended in 2002, the the model has proven extremely lethal even Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications country was largely governed by Afghans. without U.S. conventional ground forces. But for Theory and Policy Richard B. Andres and Thomas Griffith Jr. , where U.S. allies have lacked these skills, they Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. both of the School of Advanced Air and Space have proven unable to exploit the potential of Whytock of Duke University examine the Studies, and Craig Wills of U.S. Air Force Strat - American airpower. The Afghan model can role of U.S. coercive diplomacy in Libya’s deci - egy Flight, South Korea, attribute this result to thus be a powerful tool, but one with impor - sions to settle the Pan Am 103 Lockerbie ter - the U.S. decision to engage in a different type of tant preconditions for its use—and these pre - rorism case and to abandon its weapons of military operation. Rather than inserting thou - conditions limit its potential to transform U.S. mass destruction programs. In addition, they sands of troops into Afghanistan, the United force structure or defense policy. BCSIA News • 13 Nonprofit Org. U. S. Postage PAID Nashua, NH The Robert and Renée Belfer Center Permit No. 375 for Science and International Affairs Graham Allison, Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617-495-1400 Fax: 617-495-8963 www.belfercenter.org E-Mail: [email protected] BCSIA News Editor: Sharon Wilke E-Mail: sharon_wilke @ksg.harvard.edu Director of Communications and Outreach: Moira Whelan E-Mail: [email protected] Sarah Bieging, Robyn Burnham, Diane McCree, and Susan Lynch assisted the Belfer Center Mission: To provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge communications staff with this publication. about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect.

Visit our website at www.belfercenter.org to learn more about the Belfer Center. Afghan Officials, Experts Debate Best Steps for Country’s Future n intensive three-day conference hosted for wheat, and providing guaranteed purchases Aby the Belfer Center’s Program on Proposals included introducing through a marketing board mechanism, would Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution massive monetary incentives cost less than expenditures on eradication, focused on the challenges and opportunities of would remove the current income incentives state building in Afghanistan. Participants for growing wheat instead for poppy growing, and would rapidly reduce agreed that effective reconstruction of of poppies . . . the production. Participants noted that greater Afghanistan depends on strengthening security, wheat production would be good for hungry reducing poppy production, decreasing the Afghans and reduce the growing linkages hold of narcoterrorists, improving regional Conflict, and former Belfer Center Fellow between narco-trafficking and terror. commercial linkages, enhancing a sense of Sham Bathija , an Afghan national and coordi - Conference participants agreed that land- nationhood, and bolstering good governance. nator of the United Nations Conference on locked Afghanistan’s future prosperity depends Organized and co-chaired by Robert Rot - Trade and Development for Central Asia and on lessening today’s dependence on opium berg , director of the Program on Intrastate Affiliated Institutions, the conference included and returning the country to its former eco - nomic status. “A sense of common purpose

R a number of high-level Afghan E T officials, United Nations rep - would help develop Afghanistan economi - N E

C resentatives, NGO leaders, cally,” says Intrastate Conflict Program Direc - R E

F and international experts. tor Robert Rotberg, “and because the central L E B Afghan participants included government has limited visibility and legiti - Minister of Commerce macy beyond Kabul, greater unity would Hedayat Amin-Arsala , for - strengthen the nation.” mer Minister of the Interior Participants agreed that improved gover - Ali Jalali , Afghanistan’s nance is essential to accomplish these objec - Ambassador to Britain tives and that the key governance deliverable is Ahmad Wali Masoud , and security and enhanced rule of law. “A climate Afghanistan Red Crescent of impunity for powerful people now prevails President Fatima Gailani. and must be altered,” Rotberg notes, “and the Proposals included intro - state must not continue to be complicit in the ducing massive monetary abuse of ordinary civilians.” The participants Steps to Stability: Alastair McKechnie (left), World Bank country incentives for growing wheat concluded that Afghanistan requires a robust director for Afghanistan, presents “Building a Robust Economy” at instead of poppies—an essen - legal framework. the Program on Intrastate Conflict’s “State Building in Afghanistan: tial alternative crop that The Intrastate Conflict Program published Challenges and Opportunities” conference in December. Robert Afghans already grow and a policy paper summarizing the major conclu - Rotberg (center), director of the Belfer Center’s Intrastate Conflict program, co-chaired the meeting with Belfer Center depend upon for subsistence. sions of the conference and is in the process of 2004–05 International Security Program/Intrastate Conflict Fellow It was estimated that using completing a book detailing recommended Sham Bathija , coordinator of the United Nations Conference on outside assistance funds to next steps. Trade and Development for Central Asia and Affiliated Institutions. triple the current world price

14 • BCSIA News