Pathways for Peace Pathways for Peace Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Confl ict © 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 21 20 19 18 This volume is a result of a study conducted by the staff of the World Bank and the United Nations, based on information, data, and materials that were provided to such staff members and that could not neces- sarily be processed or verified by such staff members. The United Nations and the World Bank do not guarantee the accuracy of the data collected and included in this work. 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ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-1162-3 ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1186-9 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1162-3 Cover design: Takayo Muroga Fredericks. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested. Contents Foreword xi Acknowledgments xiii Executive Summary xvii Abbreviations xxxiii Introduction 1 Prevention of Violent Confl ict Works and Is Cost-Effective 2 Why, Then, Is There So Little Belief in the Prevention of Violent Confl ict? 4 What Is the Prevention of Violent Confl ict? 5 Can Prevention of Violent Confl ict Be Done Differently? 7 The Importance of Agency to Prevention 7 Notes 8 References 9 Additional Reading 9 1. A Surge and Expansion of Violent Confl ict 11 Violent Confl ict in the Twenty-First Century 12 Understanding Trends in Violent Confl ict 19 The Unacceptable Costs of Violent Confl ict 24 How Violent Confl icts End 35 Conclusion 37 Notes 37 References 40 Additional Reading 47 2. The Need for Prevention in an Interdependent World 49 An International System in Search of a New Equilibrium 50 Risk and Opportunity in an Increasingly Connected World 56 Conclusion 71 Notes 71 v References 72 Additional Reading 76 3. Pathways for Peace 77 A Framework for Peaceful Pathways 78 Path Dependency of Violence 83 The Centrality of Actors 85 Understanding Risk and Opportunity 93 Prevention and Sustaining Peace: Building Peaceful Pathways 97 Scenarios for Pathways to Peace or Violence 99 Conclusion 100 Notes 100 References 101 Additional Reading 107 4. Why People Fight: Inequality, Exclusion, and a Sense of Injustice 109 Inequality and Violent Confl ict 109 The Multiple and Intersecting Dimensions of Exclusion 115 Exclusion, Identity, Grievances, and Mobilization to Violence 125 Conclusion 130 Notes 130 References 131 Additional Reading 138 5. What People Fight Over: Arenas of Contestation 141 Risk and Opportunity in the Arenas of Contestation 142 The Arena of Power and Governance 144 The Arena of Land and Natural Resources 148 The Arena of Service Delivery 158 The Arena of Security and Justice 161 Conclusion 170 Notes 171 References 172 Additional Reading 181 6. Country Approaches to Preventing Violent Confl ict 183 Navigating Transition Moments 184 Changing Actors’ Incentives 188 Addressing Institutional Weaknesses 200 Investing in Structural Factors 214 Conclusion 219 vi Contents Notes 220 References 221 Additional Reading 228 7. The International Architecture for Prevention 231 Systemic Prevention 233 Regional Action 236 International Tools for Prevention 238 International Development Assistance 248 Areas of Convergence between Diplomatic, Security, and Development Instruments 256 Conclusion 261 Notes 262 References 266 Additional Reading 273 8. Pursuing Pathways for Peace: Recommendations for Building Inclusive Approaches for Prevention 275 Principles for Prevention 276 An Agenda for Action: Prevention in Practice 277 Organizing for Prevention 283 A Call for Action 289 Notes 289 References 290 Additional Reading 291 Appendix A. Thematic Papers and Case Studies 295 Thematic Papers 295 Country Case Studies 299 Contents vii Boxes I.1 The Business Case for Prevention 3 5.1 Confl ict across Arenas of I.2 The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Contestation: The Political Crisis Development 6 and Civil War in Côte d’Ivoire 143 1.1 The Decline of Violent Confl ict 5.2 Darfur: A Case of Land Management between States 12 Systems and Environmental Change 150 1.2 Adapting Confl ict Data to Today’s 5.3 Collaboration over Water: EcoPeace Violent Confl icts 16 Middle East 153 1.3 Crime and Violence in Latin 5.4 The Mediating Role of the State: America and the Caribbean 25 Peru’s Offi ce of the Ombudsman 157 1.4 The Impact of the Syrian Confl ict 26 5.5 Public Expenditure Analysis of 1.5 Confl ict Measures Do Not Capture the Security Forces 164 All of the Costs of Violent Confl ict 27 5.6 Human Rights as a Basis for 1.6 Famine and Fragility, Confl ict, and Normative Change 166 Violence 29 5.7 Traditional versus Formal Justice in 1.7 Limitations of the Data on Forced Somalia 168 Displacement 30 6.1 Political Inclusion in 1.8 Intimate Partner Violence and Violent Northern Ireland 186 Confl ict 31 6.2 Community-Based Approaches to 1.9 The Impact of Confl ict over the Preventing Violent Extremism 191 Life Cycle 32 6.3 Private Sector Contributions to 2.1 Examples of New Technologies Peacebuilding 196 Assessing Violent Confl ict Risks 59 6.4 Cost Savings of Investing in Women’s Grassroots Prevention: 2.2 Cyberspace, the Fifth Domain of Female-Led Peace Huts in Liberia 199 Warfare 61 6.5 Niger: An Example of Resilience in a 2.3 The Impacts of Climate Change on Troubled Neighborhood 201 the Lake Chad Region 67 6.6 Decentralization and Security 3.1 Applying the Framework to Reform as Prevention in the Northern Mali Confl ict, 2012–13 82 Practice: Indonesia 206 3.2 Violent Confl ict Emerges and Escalates 6.7 Inclusion for Security Reform: over Time 84 Burundi, Kosovo, and Timor-Leste 209 3.3 Alternatively Governed Spaces 87 6.8 Infrastructures for Peace: 3.4 The Interface of Violent Confl ict with Developing and Sustaining Exogenous Dimensions of Risk 93 National Capacity 212 3.5 Economic Shocks and Violent Confl ict 94 6.9 Peace Committees and Early Warning 3.6 Inclusion and Risk 96 Mechanisms: Kenya, Indonesia, 4.1 The Challenge of Causality for Policy and Ghana 212 Action 114 6.10 Land Protection for the 4.2 Mobilizing Women’s Leadership for Forcibly Displaced in Colombia 217 Peacebuilding 117 7.1 International Engagement through 4.3 Youth Aspirations and Exclusion 119 Military and Police Assistance 232 4.4 A Multiplicity of Motivations 7.2 Public International Law and Drives People to Join Violent Armed Confl ict 233 Extremist Groups 121 7.3 The Evolution of International 4.5 Measuring Collective Grievances Approaches to Confl ict Prevention 234 through Perceptions 123 7.4 Subregional Organizations 4.6 Identity and Mobilization to and Prevention: ECOWAS 238 Violence: The Demographics 7.5 Challenges in Predicting and the Dynamics of Difference 125 Violent Confl ict 241 4.7