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Climate Change Impacts on Clarence Coastal Areas

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Climate Change Impacts on Clarence Coastal Areas Table of Contents Climate change impacts On Clarence coastal areas Clarence City Council December 2008 Integrated report 081214 final.doc Water Research Laboratory IMPORTANT NOTICE – PLEASE READ The Commonwealth of Australia, Clarence City Council and all persons acting on their behalf preparing this report accept no liability for the accuracy of or inferences from the material contained in this publication, or for any action as a result of any person’s or group’s interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in relying on this material. Published by: Clarence City Council ©Department of Climate Change Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to: Department of Climate Change The authors of the report acknowledge funding provided by: Tasmanian State Emergency Service Clarence City Council Australian Department of Climate change This report has been prepared by: SGS Economics and Planning Pty. Ltd. ACN 007 437 729 119 Macquarie Street Hobart 7000 phone: 03 6223 6006 fax: 03 6224 9009 email: [email protected] web: www.sgsep.com.au Water Research Laboratory School of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of New South Wales ABN 57 195 873 179 King Street, Manly Vale NSW 2093 Australia Telephone: +61 (2) 9949 4488 Facsimile: +61 (2) 9949 4188 WRL Project No. 06071.02 Table of Contents Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................... i 1 Introduction ........................................................................ 1 2 Clarence coastal areas .......................................................... 4 3 The community’s initial perspective on climate change ............ 6 4 Estimates of coastal risks ..................................................... 9 4.1 Overview.................................................................................................................... 9 4.2 Coastal variables considered ......................................................................................... 9 4.3 Climate change scenarios ........................................................................................... 10 4.4 Uncertainties ............................................................................................................ 10 4.5 Coastal Processes ...................................................................................................... 11 4.6 Hazards ................................................................................................................... 11 4.7 Risk ......................................................................................................................... 12 4.7.1 Erosion and Recession Risk, Wave Runup ........................................................ 12 4.7.2 Inundation Risk ........................................................................................... 14 5 Experience from elsewhere .................................................. 15 6 Roles and responsibilities ................................................... 17 6.1 Council’s role ............................................................................................................ 17 6.1.1 Clarence Planning Scheme 2007 .................................................................... 19 6.1.2 Emergency management .............................................................................. 21 6.1.3 Public health effects ..................................................................................... 22 6.1.4 Council assets.............................................................................................. 23 6.1.5 Heritage...................................................................................................... 23 6.1.6 Natural Resource Management ...................................................................... 23 6.2 State Government Role .............................................................................................. 24 6.2.1 Natural Disaster Management ........................................................................ 25 6.2.2 Planning ..................................................................................................... 25 6.2.3 Other agency responsibilities ......................................................................... 27 6.3 Australian Government Role ....................................................................................... 27 6.3.1 Climate change mitigation ............................................................................. 27 6.3.2 Climate change adaptation ............................................................................ 28 6.3.3 Disaster management and mitigation ............................................................. 29 6.3.4 Other agency responsibilities ......................................................................... 29 Integrated report 081214 final.doc Water Research Laboratory 6.4 The role of individuals, industry & the community ......................................................... 30 7 A framework for responding ................................................ 31 7.1 Overall objective ....................................................................................................... 31 7.2 Managing climate change risk ..................................................................................... 31 7.2.1 New development ........................................................................................ 32 7.2.2 Existing property.......................................................................................... 33 7.3 Equity and responsibility ............................................................................................ 34 7.4 Risk management triggers and responses .................................................................... 35 7.4.1 Criteria for acceptable response ..................................................................... 36 7.5 Adaptive Responses ................................................................................................... 37 7.5.1 Inundation .................................................................................................. 39 7.5.2 Rising water tables ....................................................................................... 42 7.5.3 Beach erosion and storm surge ...................................................................... 43 7.5.4 Salt water intrusion ...................................................................................... 47 7.5.5 Other monitoring, detailed assessments and studies ......................................... 48 8 Priority areas – currently at risk .......................................... 50 8.1 Lauderdale and Roches Beach ..................................................................................... 51 8.1.1 Roches Beach: Storm surge and erosion ......................................................... 51 8.1.2 Ralphs Bay: Inundation ................................................................................ 57 8.1.3 Lauderdale: Rising water table ....................................................................... 61 8.2 Cremorne, Ocean Beach & Pipe Clay Esplanade ............................................................. 63 8.2.1 Ocean Beach: Storm surge and erosion .......................................................... 63 8.2.2 Cremorne: Inundation .................................................................................. 67 Cremorne - Rising water table .................................................................................... 69 8.3 Clifton – Bicheno St, Pipe Clay Lagoon ......................................................................... 70 8.4 South Arm Neck, Ralphs Bay ...................................................................................... 73 9 Areas with medium term risk ............................................... 75 9.1 Clifton Beach ............................................................................................................ 76 9.2 South Arm Beach Half Moon Bay ................................................................................. 79 9.3 Kangaroo Bay ........................................................................................................... 82 9.4 Bellerive................................................................................................................... 84 9.5 Rokeby and Droughty Point Road ................................................................................ 88 10 Areas with longer term risk ................................................. 90 10.1 Seven Mile Beach ...................................................................................................... 91 10.2 Howrah and Little Howrah Beaches .............................................................................. 94 10.3 Mays Beach .............................................................................................................. 98 10.4 Montagu Bay – inundation ........................................................................................ 100 10.5 Opossum Bay, Opossum Bay Beach and Glenvar Beach ............................................... 102 10.6 Hope Beach ............................................................................................................ 103 Integrated report 081214 final.doc Water Research Laboratory 11 Community consultation ...................................................
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