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Final Report FINAL REPORT Integrated spatial models of non-native plant invasion, fire risk, and wildlife habitat to support conservation of military and adjacent lands in the arid Southwest SERDP Project RC-1722 DECEMBER 2015 Brett G. Dickson, PhD Thomas D. Sisk, PhD Steven E. Sesnie, PhD Bethany A. Bradley, PhD Northern Arizona University Landscape Conservation Initiative School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability Distribution Statement A This report was prepared under contract to the Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP). The publication of this report does not indicate endorsement by the Department of Defense, nor should the contents be construed as reflecting the official policy or position of the Department of Defense. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the Department of Defense. Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202- 4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 16/11/2015 Final 26/4/2010 – 25/10/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Integrated Spatial Models of Non-Native Plant Invasion, Fire Risk, and Wildlife Habitat to W912HQ-10-C-0035 Support Conservation of Military and Adjacent Lands in the Arid Southwest. 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER PIs: Brett G. Dickson, PhD, Thomas D. Sisk, PhD, Steven E. Sesnie, PhD, and Bethany A. RC-1722 Bradley, PhD 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT Northern Arizona University NUMBER Landscape Conservation Initiative NA Box 5694 Flagstaff, AZ 86011-5694 University of Massachusetts, Amherst Department of Environmental Conservation 318 Holdsworth Hall University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA 01003 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) Department of Defense (DOD) DOD, SERDP Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) 4800 Mark Center Drive, Suite 17D08, Alexandria, VA 22350-3605 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approve d for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT This research sought to integrate empirically based models of non-native plant invasion, fire, and wildlife habitat in a spatially explicit decision-support package that informs sustainable resource management and recovery of native habitats and species in the face of ongoing climate change. We modeled distribution, biomass, invasion risk, and fire risk associated with five non- native invasive plant species on two military installations, two refuges, and one National Monument in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. Research involved extensive field sampling efforts to train and test regional- and landscape-scale models of non- native invasive plant distribution and biomass. Species-specific models incorporated novel remote sensing techniques that identified targets based on both phenological and spectral differences using satellite platforms of differing spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions. During this project, detections of Sahara mustard and Schismus spp. were relatively common across the study area, whereas African buffellgrass, arugula, and red brome were relatively uncommon. Results confirmed that the advanced remote sensing and modeling techniques enabled identification of NIS habitat. Our assessment of landscape and regional scale ecological risk in a spatial management framework puts DoD in a powerful position to integrate environmental objectives with training needs and explore feasible management responses to global change. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Biomass, connectivity, fire risk, invasion risk, non-native plant invasion, remote sensing, species distribution modeling 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES Brett G. Dickson, PhD a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE UU 114 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (include area UU UU UU code) (928)523-3592 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 Table of Contents List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ iv List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ v List of Acronyms .................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................................... 1 Abstract .................................................................................................................................................... 2 Core Project Objectives ............................................................................................................................ 4 Objective 1: .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Objective 2: .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Objective 3: .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Objective 4: .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Objective 5 ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Objective 6: .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Background ............................................................................................................................................... 7 The ecology and phenology of target non-native invasive species ..................................................... 8 Remote sensing of plant phenology and invasive species detection ................................................... 9 Land use and plant invasion ................................................................................................................. 9 Climate change and ecological forecasting .......................................................................................... 9 The effects of increased fuel loads and treatments on fire risk ........................................................ 10 Predicting resource use and connectivity for Sonoran pronghorn and other sensitive species ....... 12 Embedding landscape models in a decision-support package to translate science to practice ........ 12 Research Approach ................................................................................................................................. 13 Objective 1: Develop empirical remote sensing-based models of the distribution and biomass of non-native invasive plants in the Sonoran Desert and surrounding ecoregions. .............................. 13 Objective 2: Model invasion risk from non-native plants under current and projected climate conditions. .......................................................................................................................................... 39 Objective 3: Model the impacts of recent and on-going land use disturbances on non-native plant invasion. ............................................................................................................................................. 42 Objective 4: Model the effects of increased fuel loads caused by non-native plant invasion on regional fire risk. ................................................................................................................................. 43 Objective 6: Integrate the above models in a spatial decision-support package that informs sustainable resource management and recovery of native habitats and species on DOD and adjacent lands. ................................................................................................................................... 50 Results and Discussion ...........................................................................................................................
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