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Locating Climate Insecurity: Where Are the Most Vulnerable Places in Africa? 7 L o c at i n g c L i m at e i n s e c u r i t y: W h e r e a r e t h e m o s t V u L n e r a b L e P L a c e s i n a f r i c a ? By Joshua W. Busby, Todd G. Smith, Kaiba L. White, and Shawn M. Strange August 2010 c o n t e n t s About the CCAPS Program 1 About the Authors 2 Executive Summary 3 Locating Climate Insecurity: Where Are the Most Vulnerable Places in Africa? 7 Appendices 44 Endnotes 64 a b o u t t h e c c a P s P r o g r a m This paper is produced as part of the Strauss Center’s program on Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) The program conducts research in three core areas, seeking to investigate where and how climate change poses threats to stability in Africa, identify strategies to support accountable and effective governance in Africa, and evaluate the effectiveness of international aid to help African societies adapt to climate change The CCAPS program is a collaborative research program among four institutions and led by The University of Texas at Austin The CCAPS program is funded by the U S Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, a university-based, social science research program focused on areas of strategic importance to national security policy Through quantitative analysis, GIS mapping, case studies, and field interviews, the program seeks to produce research that provides practical guidance for policy makers and enriches the body of scholarly literature in this field The CCAPS team seeks to engage Africa policy communities in the United States, Africa, and elsewhere as a critical part of its research a b o u t t h e s t r a u s s c e n t e r The Robert S Strauss Center for International Security and Law at The University of Texas at Austin is a nonpartisan research center that engages the best minds in academia, government, and the private sector to develop unique, policy-relevant solutions to complex global challenges a b o u t t h e a u t h o r s Dr. Joshua W. Busby is an assistant professor at the Kaiba L. White is a research associate on the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas CCAPS program at the Robert S Strauss Center for at Austin He has served as an outside reviewer of the International Security and Law Her professional National Intelligence Council’s assessment of climate and academic work has focused on climate change, change and national security and has written reports renewable energy, and geographic information systems on climate change and security for the Council on (GIS) She previously served as a research associate Foreign Relations, the Brookings Institution, the Center for Public Citizen, where she conducted research and for a New American Security, the Woodrow Wilson advocacy on a variety of environmental issues She International Center, and the UN High-Level Panel on holds a MA in environmental policy and planning from Threats, Challenges, and Change He holds a PhD in Tufts University political science from Georgetown University Shawn M. Strange holds a MS in Community and Todd G. Smith is a PhD student at the LBJ School of Regional Planning from the University of Texas at Public Affairs He previously worked with Médicins Sans Austin His focus is on sustainable development Frontières in Ethiopia and China, and with Impumelelo in transitioning economies and the integration of Innovations Award Trust in South Africa, where he was informal economies into rapidly urbanizing regions He the primary author of the tenth volume in Impumelelo’s previously served as a corporate relations associate for Series of Best Practice, which focused on environmental the Council of the Americas and as a program specialist programs He holds a JD from Emory University and a for the Texas Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Masters of Public Affairs from the LBJ School Strike Force L o c at i n g c L i m at e i n s e c u r i t y: a ugust 2010 | 3 Where are the most VuLnerabLe PLaces in africa? e X e c u t i V e s u m m a r y Africa is widely recognized as one of the The study identified four main processes that continents most vulnerable to climate encompass different aspects of vulnerability: change The continent’s vulnerability is (1) physical exposure to climate-related partly driven by geography, but also by disasters, (2) household and community its low adaptive capacity resulting from vulnerability, (3) governance and political dysfunctions in countries’ economies, health, violence, and (4) population density. Each of education, infrastructure, and governance these areas of vulnerability was given equal This study is intended to be a proof of weight in the final vulnerability analysis concept of a methodology for identifying Within three of the four areas, several which areas in Africa are most vulnerable different indicators were identified that to climate change—and why—at the most contribute to that dimension of vulnerability detailed scale possible The study combines Indicators within each area were assigned existing data on physical, socio-economic, equal weight unless there were missing data and political insecurities to develop a for an indicator holistic model of vulnerability, and then uses geographic information systems (GIS) to Physical Exposure to locate the confluence of these various types Climate-Related Disasters of vulnerability The probability of exposure to an event is a fundamental part of vulnerability The type, magnitude, and frequency of climate change impacts will vary across the African continent Certain coastal areas will be vulnerable Africa is widely to rising sea levels and more frequent and intense cyclones Other areas will be recognized threatened by more variable precipitation patterns, which can result in more frequent as one of the and prolonged droughts and floods The basket assessing physical exposure to continents most climate-related disasters thus includes vulnerable to historic data of the frequency and magnitude of various climate-related disasters including climate change cyclones, fires, floods, and droughts It also includes an indicator for coastal areas at or below ten meters elevation to account for potential coastal inundation or storm surge impacts due to rising sea levels 4 | a u g u s t 2 0 1 0 t h e r o b e r t s . s t r a u s s c e n t e r for internationaL security and LaW Household and Community Governance and Political Violence Vulnerability Whether or not individuals experience the The extent to which individuals and worst effects of climate change will partially communities are affected by natural disaster depend on the quality of governance in events depends, in part, on their own the country in which they live Government resources, existing health and nutrition levels, support can enable communities to prepare access to health and sanitation services, and for and adapt to the expected impacts of levels of education In the event of a natural climate change and can help them respond disaster event, people and communities that when climate-related disasters do occur are already sick or under-nourished, that lack Governments that cannot or do not meet access to water and health care, and that the needs of their citizens can transform a have low levels of education are more likely natural phenomenon into a disaster that puts to experience problems than those that are a large number of people at risk of death healthy and well-fed, with adequate water, from starvation, disease, or exposure to the health services, and education This basket elements In such societies, disorder and thus includes indicators grouped into four instability may also follow natural disaster categories: (1) health of the population, (2) events This basket aims to capture this education of the population, (3) availability of dimension by including a variety of measures, daily necessities, and (4) access to healthcare including government effectiveness and services Less healthy populations are more voice and accountability This basket also vulnerable to disease, starvation, and thirst seeks to capture the degree to which a that can result from an extreme weather country has a violent history, which, in certain event Better educated populations are regions, can complicate the task of providing more likely to have information about natural relief supplies disaster vulnerability, better information about early warnings, and more ability to Population Density cope in the event of a disaster through When natural disaster events occur in densely innovation and problem-solving Health populated areas, the impact is likely to be and sanitation service indicators capture the more severe than it would be in areas with availability of community-level resources— fewer people More people will be in need such as clean water, hospitals, and medical of emergency rations of food and water professionals—that populations use in the and medical care, and demands on existing event of a disaster facilities and resources may be quickly overwhelmed, especially if climate change impacts force rural populations to migrate to urban areas L o c at i n g c L i m at e i n s e c u r i t y: a ugust 2010 | 5 Where are the most VuLnerabLe PLaces in africa? Methodology Findings This study collected existing data on The composite vulnerability map in Figure household, community and governance 5 shows a number of significant patterns variables and conducted initial data Areas with the greatest vulnerability are processing in Excel Researchers then parts of Madagascar, coastal West Africa, used ArcGIS to map these variables Each coastal Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the
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