Farmaajo's Presidency

Heritage Institute for Policy Studies 18 Policy Brief 03/2019 Farmaajo’s Presidency A scorecard for the first two years and the prospects for the remaining two Executive summary Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmaajo’ was elected Negotiations with Somaliland have stalled and as the President of Somalia on 8 February mistrust between the two camps is at an all- 2017 on a platform of comprehensive reform, time high. improved security, political stability, a revived economy, reduced corruption and a smart On foreign policy, relations with Somalia’s foreign policy. Two years later, the President’s traditional partners such as the UN, most scorecard is mixed, with some encouraging European countries, Turkey, Uganda, the achievements in certain areas but plenty of largest trading partners in the Gulf namely shortcomings on most of the lofty political Saudi Arabia and Djibouti, a sister country, are promises detailed during his presidential tenuous at best if not strained. Somalia’s closest campaign. Together with his Prime Minister allies are reduced to a handful of countries. Hassan Ali Khaire, Farmaajo’s administration There is definitely a lot more talk of fighting has made sustained progress on the debt relief corruption and there is improved transparency process, robustly reengaged with international in some aspects of the government’s internal financial institutions, increased revenues and revenue collection and expenditure. However, maintained public confidence and unity of the way in which the Farmaajo administration purpose among the government’s executive acquires external support, particularly from branch (the president and the prime minister). Qatar, and how it dispenses it is at best an However, many key election promises remain enigma. Consequently, it’s hard to objectively unfulfilled. say whether the squandering of public resources has diminished. One may even argue it has Gone is the promise to defeat Al-Shabaab become more brazen, with payoffs becoming within two years or even reopen Mogadishu’s the preferred currency for securing the loyalty perpetually closed roads. Domestically, the of MPs and votes throughout Somalia. last two years have been marked by upheaval and incessant clashes with federal member Why make the assessment now? states (FMS). The forcible replacement of Two years after Farmaajo came to power The Heritage Institute the leadership of the legislature and the with a plethora of promises and exceptionally for Policy Studies judiciary surprised even Farmaajo’s most heightened expectations, the Somali people is an independent, ardent supporters. On key policy matters, should understand how their government non-partisan, non-profit an agreement on the most contentious issues is performing in a way that goes beyond the policy research in the constitution has yet to materialize. and analysis institute 280 characters of Twitter or the pretentious based in Mogadishu, Similarly, there is no agreement on Somalia’s Facebook photo ops favored by the government Somalia. electoral model for the 2020 elections, making to demonstrate its successes. Our midterm the prospect of a one person, one vote election appraisal shows that, while the president’s highly improbable. The federation process campaign pledges remain largely unfulfilled, has not deepened and most of the regional his administration made some achievements in governments are neither stronger nor better run the face of unprecedented, mostly self-made, than they were two years ago. crises. heritageinstitute.org [email protected] @HIPSInstitute The Farmaajo administration has also been able to fragile and fractured state such as Somalia is to create mobilize the public behind the government in a way a conducive environment for political dialogue, that previous administrations were unable to do. And consensus-building and consultations, even if that although the fever pitch enthusiasm of the Farmaajo means incredibly slow and frustrating processes. As is brand is demonstrably waning, the government still clear from the rest of the benchmarks, almost every retains strong support among segments of the public strand revolves around inclusive politics. who believe that the president has good intentions, even if he falls short on delivering them. That is good On this KPI, the administration’s overall score is for Farmaajo but not for the country. Somalia needs a dismal. The only strand with any tangible progress is leader who can turn things around quickly, especially the review of the provisional constitution. There has on key issues pertaining to security, governance and been quantifiable progress in widening the scope of holding free and fair elections. consultations with diverse actors from civil society though these are largely PR-oriented and lacking in any How did we go about our assessment? results. Consultations have also taken place in some of the federal member states and this is encouraging We used the outcomes of the London Conference on given the otherwise acrimonious relationship between Somalia in May 2017 to objectively assess the Farmaajo the two sides. However, as the London Conference administration. We did this for several reasons. emphasized, this process needs to be transparent given First, the administration presented a comprehensive its importance. It must also produce agreements on governance program at the conference encompassing contentious issues such as resource and power sharing, core objectives on security, inclusive politics, the the status of the capital and the type and the form of the economy and social services. Second, the London Somali state (a parliamentary or presidential system). Conference was held three months after Farmaajo Also worth noting is that a review of the constitution was elected and two months after his cabinet was cannot take place without an agreed-upon amending formed. This gave the administration adequate time to formula which does not yet exist. craft strategies and begin implementing them. Third, the administration signed the Mutual Accountability On the need to deepen the federal system, the Framework (MAF) with the donor community, which government has also failed spectacularly. Confrontation agreed to fund its programs and projects as long as the has been the permanent posture of the government, government adhered to its implementation. Fourth, the ultimately forcing the states to form the Council of MAF is truly the only cogent and meaningful strategy Interstate Cooperation (CIC), a loose entity designed document released by the Farmaajo administration to to fend off the hegemonic ambitions of the federal date, making it relatively simple and straightforward to government. In recent months, the CIC has lost two use as an assessment tool. of its key figures including its chairman, Abdiweli Ali Gaas, the former President of Puntland, and the former Against that backdrop, we have reviewed the core president of the Southwest state, Sharif Hassan Sheikh outcomes of the London Conference of May 2017 and Aden. The latter resigned under duress and the federal the MAF and developed key performance indicators government’s subsequent domination of the process to (KPIs) to measure the administration’s performance replace him was widely condemned as a farce. over the past two years. Of course, we fully understand that there are a number of external factors impacting More than 15 people lost their lives in violent performance. For that reason, we will use the lowest confrontations in Baidoa, the interim capital of threshold as a KPI. Southwest state, after the government re-arrested Mukhtar Robow, a former Al-Shabaab commander. 1. Inclusive and stable politics Robow defected from Al-Shabaab, befriended the The first outcome of the London Conference was a Farmaajo administration and ran for the presidency of promise by the FGS to create a system of inclusive Southwest state where he was widely considered the and stable politics which included a review of the frontrunner because of his charisma, intra clan dynamics provisional constitution; deepening the federal system; and his rebranded anti- Al-Shabaab credentials. The and designing an electoral system that results in government arrested Robow with the help of Ethiopia, one person, one vote. There was a good reason that effectively paving the way for its preferred candidate inclusive politics was made a priority in London. Abdiaziz Laftagareen. Donors have realized that in the absence of a single group that controls the entire nation, the surest way to reconstitute any post conflict, 1 Heritage Institute for Policy Studies Overall there is no rapport between the member states Its security forces attacked opposition politicians, and the FGS, and the relationship has been exceedingly killing several bodyguards, and the government has toxic in certain regions, particularly Galmudug and repeatedly denied political parties their constitutional Jubbaland. Trust has eroded and suspicion increased, right to assemble. Moreover, it renditioned, illegally, a leading member states to conclude that there is Somali national to Ethiopia and branded him a terrorist. no incentive to further decentralize power in their jurisdictions as it could expose them to greater risks. The government has muzzled independent media and engaged in unprecedented propaganda campaigns on The administration has not faired any better with the social media and even from the pulpit to deliberately electoral process. The last time any substantive and manipulate a susceptible citizenry. The

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