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Institute Alert Report FIRST ANALYSIS Institute Alert News or events that may affect your investments December 15, 2020 Gary Schlossberg Global Strategist Deal or no deal — What’s at stake in Brexit negotiations Peter Wilson Key takeaways Global Fixed Income Strategist • U.K. and European Union (EU) political leaders have extended deadlocked trade talks for a few days beyond the December 11 deadline, raising the specter of a disruptive “no-deal” Brexit at year-end 2020. (Brexit refers to the U.K. requested exit from the EU.) • Several difficult points of disagreement remain, and it is unclear whether a deal is achievable before the U.K.-EU separation becomes official on December 31, 2020. What it may mean for investors • Disruptions from a hard or no-deal Brexit risk adding to the region’s latest COVID-related economic slowdown. In addition, hopes for a mid- 2021 vaccine-related recovery may be masking some of the eventual negative impact of a potential no-deal Brexit. We maintain our unfavorable rating on Developed Market (ex-U.S.) Equities but continue to see further U.S. dollar depreciation against the euro. Agreement in sight? On-again, off-again talks over Britain’s departure from the EU are back on after intense weekend negotiations to resolve remaining differences between the two sides. British concessions have created an opening for compromise. Some had viewed the impasse over EU demands for rules maintaining competition between the two sides as an insurmountable hurdle. The EU’s demands seemingly have run counter to Britain’s desire for greater independence, which drove the 2016 referendum. In return, the U.K. is requesting concessions over the other major sticking point — EU fishing rights in British waters. Both sides are working against a December 31 end to a year-long transition period following Britain’s formal departure from the EU. Failure to agree has raised the specter of a no-deal Brexit, leaving the U.K. vulnerable to tariffs and quotas capable of disrupting trade and supply lines developed over 47 years of integration between the two sides. We view © 2020 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 4 First Analysis | Institute Alert | December 15, 2020 this as the hardest of “hard Brexit” scenarios. More than the rest of Europe, we believe Britain already has paid a price for the Brexit vote and it is apparent in the country’s exchange rate. The British pound is down more than 10% from its reading just prior to the referendum, good news for exporters but an added cost for importers and for consumers in this trade-sensitive country. Elsewhere, the British stock market’s lagging performance during the four-year Brexit debate has reduced its share of the MSCI EAFE Index to less than 14% of the benchmark. A high-stakes separation We believe economic disruptions are likely regardless of the negotiations’ outcome. However, even a bare-bones trade deal may signal a desire for continued cooperation and flexibility, possibly setting a more constructive tone for future trade talks. Nonetheless, a trade agreement avoiding tariffs and quotas can leave the U.K. subject to many other new restrictions. Among them: border checks and an array of added regulations and other nontariff barriers to trade, that may affect transportation and the flow of food and other essential goods at the start of 2021. Adding to Brexit’s potential economic impact is the fact that extending negotiations beyond the 11th hour will likely leave many businesses on both sides unable to prepare for Britain’s EU separation. By the numbers, we believe Britain is more vulnerable to the separation than the remaining 27 EU countries. Last year, for example, the EU accounted for 43% of Britain’s exports and 52% of its imports. By contrast, the equivalent of little more than 15% of EU merchandise exports went to the U.K. through the first 9 months of last year and just 10% of its imports came from the U.K. (Source: Eurostat News Release, Euroindicators, November 13, 2020.) This omits Britain’s sizable surplus in services trade, which we believe likely will narrow as certain financial activities migrate to the continent. Top-line numbers on goods trade may mask a more sizable effect on U.K. and EU industries and regions. British industries we expect to be hurt most by a hard Brexit include autos, financial services, pharmaceuticals, and airlines, the last of which already has suffered from exposure to the pandemic’s economic fallout. Beyond that are import-intensive industries exposed to higher costs if, as expected, the British pound ratchets lower in the foreign exchange market. Other eurozone economies most exposed to a no-deal Brexit are France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, and, of course, Ireland. Port activity is vulnerable in most areas, as are French agribusiness and the German auto, chemicals, pharmaceutical, machinery, and electrical products industries. A global side show? As a single country separating from the group, we believe the U.K. would be comparatively more vulnerable economically than the continental economies. Also, a no-deal outcome could encourage a further rate cut by the Bank of England next year and suppress British interest rates (particularly inflation-adjusted rates already squeezed by Brexit’s lift to British inflation). In turn, lower inflation-adjusted rates should weigh on the value of the British pound, likely the most visible barometer of Brexit sentiment. We believe that the pound could weaken to above an exchange rate of $1.40 if there is a deal and slide to the mid- or low-$1.20s without one. In turn, a weaker pound sterling would likely boost import costs and squeeze margins of import-intensive firms. We look for the impact on the broader EU to be smaller but still significant, especially because Europe’s economies are already slowing under the weight of a surge in COVID-19 infections and related economic restrictions. The EU is the second-largest economic bloc globally (with 2019 gross domestic product at $15.6 trillion vs. the U.S. economy’s $21.4 trillion, according to the World Bank), so a no-deal Brexit risks deepening the recession and slowing the recovery in the EU, with smaller effects on Europe’s trade partners in the U.S., Japan, and China. As a potential silver lining, disappointment over a no-deal Brexit could take some of the pressure off the high-flying euro, and thereby ease the loss of competitiveness from the currency’s recent gains. For the immediate present, we anticipate the greatest risk of a no-deal Brexit may be that investors underestimate its ultimate importance, as long as it remains a sideshow to the worsening pandemic and a much-anticipated © 2020 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 2 of 4 First Analysis | Institute Alert | December 15, 2020 vaccine-driven global recovery in 2021. Hopes for economic support from a COVID-19 vaccine may have taken some of the urgency out of 11th-hour negotiations. Moreover, we believe financial markets may find it even easier to look past any no-deal Brexit because the impacts are unlikely to appear until next year, when consumers, businesses, and investors begin to experience the delays and higher costs of travel and imported goods, as well as reduced competitiveness of British firms in the rest of Europe. In summary, if a hard, no-deal Brexit develops, we believe the disruptions could add to the region’s double-dip recession early next year, while Europe’s vaccine-related recovery in the summer could mask Brexit’s full impact, at least initially. If a deal emerges, there are likely to be adjustments to make on both sides of the English Channel. Brexit or no, we foresee significant economic challenges in Europe (and in Japan too). Consequently, we maintain our unfavorable rating on Developed Market (ex-U.S.) Equities but continue to see further U.S. dollar depreciation against the euro. © 2020 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 3 of 4 First Analysis | Institute Alert | December 15, 2020 Risk Considerations Each asset class has its own risk and return characteristics. The level of risk associated with a particular investment or asset class generally correlates with the level of return the investment or asset class might achieve. Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile. Stock values may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. Foreign investing has additional risks including those associated with currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. Currency risk is the risk that foreign currencies will decline in value relative to that of the U.S. dollar. Exchange rate movement between the U.S. dollar and foreign currencies may cause the value of a portfolio's investments to decline. Definitions MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed, or produced by MSCI. General Disclosures Global Investment Strategy (GIS) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (WFII). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company.
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