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Endemol Equity Research Europe EML.AS 01 December 2006 Endemol Equity Research Europe EML.AS Rating (from NEUTRAL) OUTPERFORM* Upgrading to Outperform Price (30 Nov 06) 15.28 (Eu) Target price (12 months) (from 14.50) 17.50 (Eu) Upgrading to Outperform and raising price target to € 17.50. Following Market cap. (Eu m) 1,910.00 recent strong incremental newsflow and our belief that underlying trading is Enterprise value (Eu m) 1,900.13 even stronger than currently anticipated by the market (or indicated by the Region/country Europe/Netherlands company’s guidance), we are upgrading Endemol to Outperform (from Neutral) Sector Entertainment Analyst's Coverage Universe Media and raising our price target to € 17.50 (from € 14.50). Changes to our forecasts Weighting (vs. broad market) OVERWEIGHT yield a 1% upgrade to 2006E EPS, 2% to 2007E EPS and 3% to 2008E EPS. Date 01 December 2006 Recent Telefonica Q3 results suggest underlying growth remains above * Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in market expectations. Endemol reported an extremely strong H1, delivering each analyst's or each team's respective sector. organic growth of 21%. Our analysis of Telefonica’s Q3 results suggests that Endemol continues to enjoy growth north of 20%. Management is currently Price / price relative guiding to full year growth of 15%. As a result, we have raised our organic 15 growth forecast to 20% (from 18.5% previously). Solid performance of core formats. Big Brother is slated to return to screens 13 across the major territories in 2007. Deal or No Deal continues to travel to new 11 territories and is commissioned well into 2007 across Endemol’s most important 9 territories. The company has also enjoyed a string of foreign syndication deals Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 post MIPCOM. We also anticipate further positive newsflow on 3 US gameshow Price Price relative pilots, 2 of which could potentially become key global formats in 2007. The price relative chart measures performance against the Europe Dow Jones Stoxx index Big Brother remains a major format for broadcasters. In this note we argue On 30/11/06 the Europe Dow Jones Stoxx index closed at 379.98 On 30/11/06 the spot exchange rate was Eu 0.76 /US$1 and demonstrate quantitatively that Endemol’s most famous format remains popular globally. Overnight, it has been reported that the Channel 4 in the UK is Performance over 1mth 3mths 12mths to pay £180m over 3 years for the show from 2008. This suggests a significant Absolute (%) 0.6 8.1 54.8 50% rise in the cost of the rights by our estimates. To reflect this we are raising Relative (%) 0.3 2.0 28.9 our 2008 organic growth estimate to 6.8% (from 5.1% previously). We believe Year 12/04A 12/05A 12/06E 12/07E this deal is indicative of premium pricing economics (which very few formats are Revenue (Eu m) 850.9 900.1 1,102.7 1,194.9 capable of attaining). As a result of this deal we are upgrading our 2008 EBITDA (Eu m) 132.42 152.80 188.50 207.17 EBITDA margin to 17.8% (from 17.6% previously). Net income (Eu m) 65.0 84.2 103.5 115.9 Content king in the converging world. Given the convergence of media and CS adj. EPS (Eu) 0.00 0.66 0.80 0.89 telecom spaces we are observing, we see compelling content as the only ROIC (%) — — — — differentiating factor amongst bundled offerings. The likely beneficiaries of this P/E (x) 23.0 19.1 17.2 trend are the Hollywood Movie studios, top sports clubs and franchises, and P/E rel (%) — 147.3 137.7 135.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.9 13.0 10.1 9.0 those production companies capable of delivering audience generating branded shows. Endemol represents one of the best focused pure plays on this trend, in Dividend 2005 (Eu) Book value/share (12/05, Eu) our view. Endemol currently trades on 17.2x 2007E, at a premium to the 0.49 — European TV broadcasting sector. We believe a premium is warranted given Dividend yield (%) Free float (%) Endemol’s diversified revenue base, platform neutrality, correlation to global as 3.2 25.0 opposed to domestic advertising cycles and its position as a premium content IC (12/06E, Eu m) Number of shares (m) play likely, in our view, to be of takeover interest to telcos, ISPs and media —125.00 Net debt (12/06E, Eu m) EV/IC (12/06E, x) conglomerates looking to acquire premium content assets. Endemol is a global creator and producer of television formats -9.9 Net debt/equity (12/06E, %) Current WACC (12/06E, %) — 8.2 research team Source: FTI, Company data, Datastream, Credit Suisse Securities (EUROPE) LTD. Mike Cunningham Nick Bertolotti Neil Shelton Estimates Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst 44 20 7883 8723 44 20 7888 4954 44 20 7888 1370 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX. Endemol 01 December 2006 Investment Summary Upgrading to Outperform and raising price target to € 17.50. Following recent strong incremental newsflow and our belief that underlying trading is even stronger than currently anticipated by the market (or indicated by the company’s guidance), we are upgrading Endemol to Outperform and raising our price target to € 17.50. Readover from Telefonica’s Q3 results Endemol’s parent company Telefonica recently reported its Q3 results. If one examines Telefonica’s divisional revenue breakdown, one can analyse the performance of its media and content businesses. Telefonica reported 9 month growth in its content businesses of 28%. By our estimates, the quoted Endemol (Endemol NV) represents approximately 71% of Telefonica's content revenues (the remainder is Endemol France, and ATCO). Endemol reported an extremely strong H1, delivering organic growth of 21%. Looking at the relevant Telefonica release for the same period, Telefonica reported growth of 28.8% in its content businesses. This suggests that Endemol continues to grow above market expectations in Q3. Moreover, the growth rates of Telefonica's content businesses have slipped only very marginally in Q3 (from 28.8% in H1 to 28% for 9 months), suggesting Endemol continues to enjoy growth north of 20%. Moreover, we can estimate the likely Q3 and 9 month growth rates directly for the quoted Endemol NV. As part of its IPO filings Endemol reported one set of quarterly figures, for Q3 2005. Endemol's 9 month revenues in 2005 according to this release were € 615.82m. Assuming c70% of Telefonica's 9 month content revenue are derived from Endemol NV suggests growth of 27.9% for 9 months, and 26% in Q3. Endemol raised their FY 06 organic growth guidance to 11-13% at the H1 stage, and raised it further recently in their Q3 trading statement, to 15%. In our opinion, Endemol has traditionally been overly conservative in their guidance (i.e. guiding to 5-6% for FY but delivering 21% in H1). As a result of this we are raising our full year organic revenue growth target to 20% for 2006. Given Telefonica's results, it is reasonable to suggest that the growth performance of Endemol may be even better than the market is currently forecasting. We believe the market to be anticipating growth of 15-18% This analysis suggests that Endemol continues to enjoy buoyant trading conditions in Q3, well ahead of market expectations and company guidance. Recent incremental newsflow is also indicative of strong H2 Endemol has enjoyed a string of programming commissions and foreign syndications globally post MIPCOM. Held in Cannes every October, MIPCOM is one of the key programming conferences for the TV format industry globally. Deal or No Deal has been commissioned in a number of new territories highlighting the ability of the format to travel globally – South Africa, Canada, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and a first ever production in Japan (however the majority of these commissions will impact 2007 numbers in the main). The show is commissioned well into 2007 in Endemol’s core territories of the US and Europe. 2 Endemol 01 December 2006 Endemol has also successfully sold foreign syndications of some of their flagship US formats. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition has been licensed to MNET in South Africa, Sky Italia and UKTV. Fear Factor has been syndicated to Challenge in the UK, Sky Italia and Channel 4 Finland. The company has also enjoyed significant sales of its less well known shows globally. These deals represent the syndication of previously produced and broadcast shows to foreign networks. Such programming involves minimal cost to Endemol given that the original production has been cashflowed by the commissioning US broadcaster. As such these deals are likely to enjoy a very high EBITDA margin, well in excess of the group's average. This further supports our belief that Endemol is likely to report margins towards the top end of its typical 15-17% range. At its H1 results Endemol announced that it had successfully sold 3 new gameshows to separate US networks (ABC, NBC and Fox) in the space of one week. For The Rest of Your Life on ABC, and Show Me the Money for Fox were created by Dick de Rijk who invented the Deal or No Deal format concept. 1 versus 100 for NBC, is a format from Endemol’s library of 1200+ TV formats. A key factor in the sales was Endemol’s consistent track record of producing audience capturing content. These productions were slated to take place in the second half of 2006 and thus be reflected in Endemol’s full year numbers.
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