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Holiday Retail Outlook December 2015 Holiday Retail Outlook December 2015 This material is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. The information and opinions contained in the material have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. Opinions expressed reflect prevailing market conditions and are subject to change. Neither this material, nor any of its contents, may be used for any purpose without the consent and knowledge of AEW. Where Do We Stand Heading into 2016? Longest employment expansion in U.S. history GDP growth rate below 3%, job growth averaging 200K+ per month and unemployment at 5% Budget deal avoids a government shutdown for the next two years with 5% increase in discretionary spending next year Federal Reserve will raise short rates through 2016 Household debt growing again but all of the increase is in auto and student loans Retail sales growth has turned anemic, non‐auto sales growth is negative year‐over‐year U.S. income distribution at historically unbalanced levels with lower income households having smallest share of income since WWII 2 AEW Research Conference Call: Holiday Retail Outlook Strongest Job Growth This Century U.S. has added INDEX OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, 100 IN MONTH EACH RECESSION BEGAN 13.5 million jobs 115.0 since the 114.0 beginning of 2015 113.0 112.0 111.0 Longest 110.0 employment 109.0 expansion in U.S. 108.0 history with 70 107.0 106.0 consecutive 105.0 months of private 104.0 sector job growth 103.0 102.0 101.0 100.0 99.0 98.0 97.0 96.0 95.0 94.0 93.0 2012 92.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 ‐ 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Current Cycle 2001 1990 Source: BLS, Moody’s Analytics 3 AEW U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook Consumer Sentiment Returns to Normal Improvement in CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX consumer sentiment appears 200 to have peaked for 180 this cycle 160 Expectations about 140 the future showing signs of trending 120 down again 100 80 60 40 20 0 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Present Situation Future Expectations Source: Conference Board 4 AEW Research Conference Call: Holiday Retail Outlook Consumer Credit Expansion? Total outstanding OUTSTANDING CONSUMER CREDIT ($ BILLIONS) consumer debt is nearly $1 trillion $4,000.0 above pre‐crisis peak $3,500.0 All of the $3,000.0 increase has come in auto and $2,500.0 student loans $2,000.0 Total revolving credit is still $1,500.0 below pre‐crisis peak $1,000.0 $500.0 $0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Revolving Non‐Revolving Source: Federal Reserve 5 AEW Research Conference Call: Holiday Retail Outlook Retail Sales Growth (Year-Over-Year Through November) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Retail and Food Services Sales ‐ Total ‐9.9% 1.3% 6.4% 6.8% 4.1% 3.4% 4.9% 1.4% Food Services & Drinking Places 1.4% ‐0.9% 5.2% 6.2% 5.2% 5.4% 6.2% 6.5% Retail Sales ex Food Service Sales ‐11.2% 1.6% 6.5% 6.9% 3.9% 3.1% 4.7% 0.7% Automobile/Other Motor Vehicle Dealers ‐29.3% 5.0% 13.6% 8.5% 8.6% 9.7% 9.7% 4.5% Retail Sales & Food Services ‐5.8% 0.9% 5.0% 6.5% 3.3% 2.0% 3.9% 0.7% ex Motor Vehicle & Parts Retail Sales ex Food Service & ‐6.8% 1.2% 5.0% 6.5% 3.0% 1.5% 3.5% ‐0.3% Motor Vehicles Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores ‐16.1% ‐8.3% 1.4% 3.7% 3.0% 7.3% 2.2% 5.4% Electronics & Appliance Stores ‐7.7% ‐5.0% ‐1.0% 6.9% 0.7% ‐0.5% 4.2% ‐2.3% Building Material & Garden ‐11.9% ‐10.1% 4.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 8.2% 2.2% Equipment/Supplies Dealers Grocery Stores 1.8% 0.9% 2.8% 4.9% 2.4% 1.5% 3.9% 2.0% Health & Personal Care Stores 4.0% 2.9% 4.5% 2.6% 0.0% 5.4% 6.6% 3.5% Gasoline Stations ‐23.8% 14.7% 7.3% 16.3% 2.7% ‐5.2% ‐3.2% ‐19.9% Clothing & Clothing Accessory Stores ‐8.1% ‐0.5% 8.1% 4.5% 3.3% 1.4% 5.1% 0.3% Sporting Goods/Hobby/Book/Music Stores ‐7.5% ‐3.3% 4.9% ‐3.1% 1.7% 4.2% 3.1% 5.4% General Merchandise Stores 1.2% ‐0.9% 4.5% 2.5% 1.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% Department Stores ‐5.4% ‐5.4% 1.6% ‐3.5% ‐4.6% ‐1.9% ‐1.1% ‐2.4% Source: Commerce Dept. 6 AEW Research Conference Call: Holiday Retail Outlook E-Commerce Sales Growth in SHARE OF TOTAL SALES AND YEAR‐OVER‐YEAR GROWTH e‐commerce sales has stabilized at 40% roughly 15% per 35% year over the past five years 30% Total e‐commerce 25% sales still account for less than 10% 20% of total retail sales 15% Amazon and eBay 10% represent nearly 40% of all online 5% sales 0% ‐5% ‐10% 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 Share of Total Sales Year‐Over‐Year Growth Source: Commerce Department 7 AEW U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook Property Yields Near All-Time Lows Near‐term cap HISTORICAL CAP RATE RANGE (%) rate expansion 11.00% will be limited by strong capital in‐ 10.00% flows 9.00% Property yield 8.00% spreads expected 7.00% Rate to compress through 2016 as 6.00% Cap 5.35% 5.23% Treasury yields 5.00% 4.73% rise 4.67% 4.53% 4.54% 4.00% Appraisal 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Source: AEW Research, NCREIF 8 AEW U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook Estimated U.S. Retail Sales by Kind of Business - YTD November 2015 Sales % Total % Total Sales % Change $MM Sales Ex ‐ Auto vs. 2014 Retail & Food Total 4,804,236 100.0% 2.0% Autos 1,011,405 21.1% 6.9% Retail, Food & ex Auto 3,792,831 78.9% 100.0% 1.3% Furniture & Home Furnishings 93,108 1.9% 2.5% 5.6% Electronics & Appliances 90,738 1.9% 2.4% ‐1.8% Building Materials 305,651 6.4% 8.1% 3.9% Food & Beverage Stores 618,844 12.9% 16.3% 2.8% Health & Personal care 284,541 5.9% 7.5% 4.3% Gasoline Stations 401,153 8.3% 10.6% ‐19.8% Clothing & Accessories 221,173 4.6% 5.8% 2.2% Sporting, Hobby, Book & Music 76,054 1.6% 2.0% 5.7% General Merchandise 598,348 12.5% 15.8% 1.1% – Department Stores 142,116 3.0% 3.7% ‐1.9% Non store Retailers 426,865 8.9% 11.3% 6.0% Restaurants & Bars 561,959 11.7% 14.8% 8.1% GAFO 1,079,421 22.5% 28.5% 1.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 9 AEW Research Conference Call: Holiday Retail Outlook Holiday Retail Outlook 2015 Retail Real Estate –The Big Picture – Retail Real Estate –Center by Center Holiday Retail 2015 –The “New Reality” Year 7 “AL” – “Black November” 2015 – Omni‐Channel and Supply Chain –The Mobile “Tipping Point” – If the Economy is Improving Why is Store Traffic Down? – Those Millennials –They Don’t Like Malls and They Only Shop Online, Right? Holiday 2015 Retail Tour U.S. Income Distribution and Household Budgets 10 AEW U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook U.S. Shopping Center Industry Growth by Center Type 1980-2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Total Shopping Center GLA (SF, MM) 3,087 3,717 4,650 5,224 5,939 6,740 7,412 7,541 Trailing 5 year CAGR 4.8% 3.8% 4.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 1.9% 0.3% Regional Malls (number) 713 839 972 1,032 1,102 1,166 1,218 1,231 %Retail GLA 21.8% 21.0% 19.3% 18.2% 17.2% 16.1% 15.3% 15.2% Total GLA (SF, Million) 672 778 894 950 1,020 1,085 1,126 1,136 Trailing 5 year CAGR 6.2% 3.0% 2.8% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% N’Hood/Community (number) 18,625 22,822 28,586 31,369 34,789 38,455 41,482 42,078 %Retail GLA 57.7% 58.7% 60.1% 59.7% 58.7% 57.6% 56.4% 56.3% Total GLA (SF, Million) 1,780 2,184 2,793 3,120 3,488 3,881 4,180 4,247 Trailing 5 year CAGR 4.8% 4.2% 5.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 1.5% 0.3% Power Centers (number) 394 460 647 933 1,360 1,810 2,205 2,253 %Retail GLA 5.4% 5.2% 5.8% 7.7% 9.9% 11.7% 13.1% 13.1% Total GLA (SF, Million) 166 194 271 400 588 791 967 987 Trailing 5 year CAGR 2.7% 3.1% 6.9% 8.1% 8.0% 6.1% 4.1% 0.4% Lifestyle Centers (number) 80 100 132 145 184 277 409 446 %Retail GLA 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0% Total GLA (SF, Million) 27 32 41 45 59 94 138 148 Trailing 5 year CAGR 2.7% 3.8% 5.0% 2.1% 5.5% 9.7% 7.9% 1.5% Outlet Centers (number) 44 73 150 233 271 290 317 349 %Retail GLA 0.9% 1.6% 3.1% 5.1% 5.9% 6.0% 6.7% 7.5% Total GLA (SF, Million) 6 12 28 48 61 66 75 86 Trailing 5 year CAGR 4.1% 15.2% 17.4% 11.7% 4.7% 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% *Source: ICSC, CoStar 11 AEW Research Conference Call: Holiday Retail Outlook Retail Real Estate 2015 – The Big Picture Dramatic reduction in new center development –now and for the foreseeable future – Total U.S.
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