The Conflict Early Warning and Response mechanism (CEWARN)
in the
Inter Governmental Authority On Development (IGAD) Region
CEWARN Country Updates: December 2007 – August 2008
For the Djibouti Side of the Afars-Isa Cluster
Report to Djibouti CEWERU November 15, 2008
CEWARN, Addis Abeba, Ethiopia
IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
CEWARN Country Update
Update Period: January 2008 through August 2008 Area of Reporting: Djibouti, Dikhil region (Afar-Issa Cluster) National Research Institute: CCFIS Country Coordinator: Coordinator: Ilmi Awaleh Elabeh Report to Djibouti CEWERU November 15, 2008
Executive Summary
The purpose of this Country Update is to establish the incidence and outcomes of pastoral conflict on the Djibouti side of the Afars-Isas Cluster from January 2008 through August 2008, set in the context of all reports submitted from December 2007 through August 2008. The reporting locations on the Djibouti side of the Afars-Issas cluster are 3 in number for the reporting period: As-Eyla South-West sector, As-Eyla South-Est sector and Dikhil sector. This Update presents both positive and negative precursors to the pastoral conflict situations as a means to illuminate trends that can help signal imminent outbreaks or escalations or mitigate ongoing conflicts in the cluster.
For the reporting period from January 2008 through August 2008, 5 deaths occurred and 329 livestock were lost on the Djibouti side of the Afars-Issas Cluster. These losses were reported in a total of 15 incidents reported of which 7 violent incidents with using of guns and dags (“Knife weapons" such as daggers) occurring 5 deaths and 5 injuries. 6 of those 15 incidents [40%] were happened in the Ethiopian side of the border and have involved parties from this neighboring country of Djibouti. Violence was highest in May through August 2008. Peace indicators were highest in April and May 2008.
The Dikhil Region has the specificity of having the two main components of the national population, the Afars and the Issas. In addition, it has a long border with the two Somali and Afar regions of Ethiopia and the nomadic populations move from one side to the other without restriction. The Afars and the Issas (Somali tribes) having the same way of life, are in majority nomadic herders who move with their livestock according to climatic conditions, on either side of the border between Ethiopia and Djibouti, and depending on situations of conflict or peace between them in the region. They engage regularly since the down of time in often very deadly conflicts interrupted by periods of reconciliation and peace.
The centers of the intra and inter community pastoral conflicts are located in the GOOBAAD, a border zone in all it's extent to the South - East of the district up to Lake Abbeh, and mainly around the entry and exit points at the border, Bondara, Sankal, Bakeireh, Moulouhlelh Dar- Bour and Kalan - Kaleyti.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
The problems which arise in this area have repercussions and affect afterwards the cohabitation of Afars and Issas in the other parts of the district but also the country.
In addition to the competition for the meager resources of grazing and water, in most cases it is acts of livestock thefts or crimes committed on the Ethiopian side of the border by isolated thieves (Afar and Issa) which lead to reactions of revenge in the Djiboutian territory and even cause the failure of peace negotiations.
Due to their mobility from one side to the other of the border, they benefit rarely from basic social infrastructures, services and assistance of government administrations. As everywhere in the Horn of Africa, the major causes of the conflicts between Afar and Issa pastoralists are, among others: • the competition for grazing lands and water which generally triggers the first hostilities or confrontations; • livestock theft to reconstitute livestock lost due to theft or raid or death due to drought; • livestock theft to pay for dowry; • Availability of weapons (light kalach) and ammunitions is also an aggravating factor. • Weak impact of the development policies and programs of both countries concerned to change the situation and living conditions of the population of the area. The major recommendations of this report are: • the development and the setting up of a vast integrated agro-pastoralist program in the zone by the authorities of the two countries, to strengthen and diversify the income generating activities of the pastoralists of the zone; • the extension and the improvement of the access, quality and coverage of basic social infrastructures; • the establishment and the setting up of a local Cross - Border Traditional Peace Committee (recognized by the authorities of the two countries) representative of Afar and Issa pastoralists of this zone. The government authorities and the cewarn program should support and encourage this committee to use the traditional mechanism of prevention and resolution of conflicts and crises between the pastoralists in this zone.
___ The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) of The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, has coordinated the field reporting and editing of these reports. The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) have contributed funds towards this effort. CEWARN in collaboration with Virtual Research Associates (VRA) developed the early warning methodology and reporting tool. suggestions and comments on this initial updates are welcome. Please contact CEWARN ([email protected]) at the CEWARN office in Addis Ababa with any questions, comments or suggestions. The next CEWARN Country Update September-December 2008 for the Djibouti side of the Afar-Isa cluster is scheduled for posting in January 2008. In the course of the year these Updates will be enhanced with specific response options identified and tied to their associated thresholds of indicator values that signal pastoral conflict escalation, destabilization or violence.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
Current Baseline Analysis NOTE: The y-axes are dynamically scaled on all of the charts presented below. Therefore, the reader should pay special attention to the upper and lower values presented for each chart. The range of values for all “scores” is from 0 to 100.
Chart 1 (below) presents the frequency of violent incident counts for the Djibouti side of the Afars- Issas Cluster for the reporting period. Chart 1. Afar-Isa Cluster Incident Reports (Djibouti Reports only) December 2008 - August 2008
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
7 8 8 8 0 08 08 0 Incident Report Counts Report Incident 200 00 0 0 008 2 20 l 2 20 h i y 2 e st 2 ary rc a a M July 2008 nu Apr Jun gu a M J Au December February 3008
Month
Armed Clashes Protest Demonstrations Raids Other Crime All Reported Incidents
From December 2007 through January 2008, and from May through august 2008, violent incident reports were at their highest levels. Violence was lowest during February through April 2008. Among the 15 incidents reported on the Djibouti side of the Afars-Issas cluster, 40% were identified as cross-border incidents by the reporters in that the protagonists were from Ethiopia. The incidents reported during this period are distributed as follows: Djibouti side of the border: 9 Ethiopia side of the border: 6
The incidents of the period from December 2007 through January 2008 are due mainly to the installation of new Afar camps in Bakereh, a zone usually used by Issas in the cool season. This zone is an important axis of transhumance and especially the main passage route of caravans between Ethiopia and Djibouti. It is also the customary setting up location of the Issa camps coming from Oudha'leh and Ayroor (plateaus of Region II of Ethiopia) during the winter period. In the face of this situation, the Issa tribal chiefs have reacted and complained to the authorities of the Dikhil region against these new establishments of Afar camps, fearing the potential risks of clashes and misunderstandings that could be created by this promiscuity, which they have considered to contravene the traditional tacit rules of community territory patterns.
To preserve peace and security, the Authorities of the Dikhil Region decide that the two parties keep their own traditional settlement zones, namely Saadli for the Afars and Bakereh for the Issas.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
The Afar community refuses by interpreting the decision of the Region's commissioner as a forced displacement and a bias, diverted from their goal of seeking peace by malicious individuals (district and political grudges resulting from the regional elections in the zone in 2006). Between February and mid-May 2008, the majority of Issa pastoral nomads have returned to their grazing zones on the plateaus of Region II of Ethiopia, in search of the "Dirac" season rains. The contacts between Afar nomads and camps are reduced to zero, which explains why incidents are non - existent during this period.
After mid - May, the Afar nomads fleeting heat, the aridity of their plains, move and climb in their turn on the heights of the plateaus of region II of Ethiopia, seeking coolness and pasture for their livestock. They come into contact again with Issa nomads. The rains of "Dirac" season beings very small, the proximity causes a very strong competition for water points and the limited pastures, which again triggers incidents.
Human deaths for the reporting period are presented in Chart 2 (below);
Chart 2. Afar-Isa Cluster Human Deaths (Djibouti reports only )
50 December - August 2008 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Human Death Counts 8 8 8 0 007 2 2008 200 20 y ly 2008 pril u A May une 2008 J nuar J ember a March 2008 c J February 300 De Month
All Deaths Women & Children
The numbers of deaths range from a high of 3 in January 2008 to a low of1 in February and 1 in July 2008.
The 5 deaths reported occurred in three incidents. It was January's incident which was the deadliest with three deaths by shotgun (kalach). The presence of the Djibouti Armed Forces at different border entry points has enabled that the number of incidents is this low as well as the number of deaths. The authors of the raids or attacks of caravans and camps are indicated to the Authorities of the Region which give the Army and the police the responsibility of tracking them down at the entry points and all along the border. The Region's commissioner, in collaboration with the sultan of Gobaad, also sends, each time, the chiefs of the tribes of the authors of the acts to bring them back, judge them and imprison them.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
Livestock losses are presented in Chart 3 (below).
Chart 3. Afar-isa Cluster Net Livestock Losses (Djibouti reports only ) December - August 2008 vestock Losses Count of Li of Count
8 8 8 8 0 08 0 008 0 00 00 2 3 y 2 t 2008 ne 2 ul uary April 2 May 2008 Ju J an bruary March 200 J Month Augus Fe
Net Livestock Losses (Number killed and stolen minus those recovered)
In January 2008, 227 livestock were raided, the highest number lost for the period. Few livestock were raided in the months of February (4 camels), March (20 goats), June (60 goats and 5 camels) and August 2008 (11 camels).
On the night of 17 and 18 January 2008, a camp of Issa nomads has been attacked in Oudhaleh on the border with Ethiopia, a zone where Issa nomads and Debine Afars cohabit. The attack was perpetrated by the Assahémaras (Afar of Ethiopia) according o Debine. The assailants were estimated to number twenty warriors. The Issa nomads were caught by surprise in their sleep. The assailants took away with them 128 goats, 89 sheep and 5 she-camels. The next morning, groups of Issa men went quickly in pursuit of the assailants. The pursuers were able to reach the assailants in the afternoon at about twenty kilometers from the place of the attack. The men clashed violently during several hours. The Issa were able to get back their livestock. The confrontation caused in total three deaths, one among the Issa and two among the Assahemaras.
Since this raid, peace between Issas and Debines has broken down because the latter have not respected the pact with the Issas which consisted in preventing (or indicating) the Assahemaras crossing their lands to loot the livestock of the neighboring Issa camps.
This incident resulted in blocking the restitution process of stolen livestock from either side between Debneh Afars and Issas, under the auspices of the commissioner of Dikhil Region and the Sultan of the Debneh. And all the other raids and livestock thefts perpetrated in the course of the following months are linked to this incident.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
Conflict indicators for the Djibouti side of the Afars-Issas Cluster are presented in Chart 4 (below).
Chart 4. Afar-Isa Cluster Conflict Indicators (Djibouti reports only) December - August 2008
95 85 75 65 55 45 35
Indicator Scores Indicator 25 15 5
8 8 8 8 8 07 0 0 0 0 00 00 2008 2 20 2 20 20 y y er 2 ril a ne l b rch u u m a Ap M J J e M January 2008 August 2008 Dec February Month
Aggavating Behaviors Armed Interventions Environmental Pressures Provocative Behaviors All Conflict Indicators Combined
The Conflict Indicators above highlight the Aggravating Behaviors, the Environmental Pressures, the Provocative Behaviors and all the other combined conflict indicators. The data show that these indicators are at their highest level between January and February 2008 and March to July 2008.
The Environmental Pressures are the most important indicator due to the endemic drought (natural disaster) in the region since the last two years. Its level remains above all other indicators during the whole follow-up period. It has three peaks, in January, April and August 2008. The January peak coincides with the theft of the greatest number of livestock and the deadliest incident to the following period.
The Provocative Behaviors indicator, even though low, has also its highest peak during the same month of January 2008.
The magnitude of the impact of drought has brought about long periods of competition for the few pastures and water points. This prolonged drought not only decimated the livestock among the Afar as well as the Issas but also is contributing to the rise in the theft of livestock as a way of restocking the depleting number. The revenge of replacing the livestock stolen by the other party also constitutes the main motive in the majority of livestock theft cases. The scarcity or the limited government supports in terms of agro-pastoral development (water wells, fodder, veterinary care, schools and health posts) including on the Ethiopia side of the border constitutes the major factor responsible for the level and the impact of Aggravating Behaviors during the whole period.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
Peace indicators presented in Chart 5 (below).
Chart 5. Afar-Isa Cluster Peace Indicators (Djibouti reports only) December - August 2008 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 Indicator Scores Indicator 20.0 10.0 0.0
8 08 00 2007 2008 20 2 2008 il 2008 ry r ay uary 2008 arch 2008 Ap M June July M ugust 2008 Janua ebr A F December Month
Alliance Formation Exchange Behaviors Peace Initiatives M itigating Behaviors All Peace Indicators Combined
Chart 5 highlights Peace Indicators, such as Alliance Formations, Exchange Behaviors, Mitigating Behaviors, Peace Initiatives and All Peace Indicators Combined.
The Alliance Formation Indicators remains the lowest during the whole follow up period, with two important drops in February and June 2008. The first drop starts as a result of the deadliest incident and the most important livestock theft in January 2008. The second drop starts in May with the outbreak of hostilities between Djibouti and Eritrea on the north border. This armed conflict has aggravated the suspicions and the tension between Issa and Afar pastoralists all along the border with Ethiopia.
The Peace Initiative Indicators, even if above, evolve in the same manner as the Alliance Formation indicators, but the variation remains smaller each time.
The Exchange Behavior indicators vary very little and remain almost constant between the two previous indicators during the whole period.
The Mitigating Behavior indicators remained the highest of the four indicators and even show a steady increase from January to August 2008. It indicates government efforts in matters of conflict prevention, peacekeeping and security, such as relief food to reduce the impact of drought. During these periods there were no reports of interruption of provision of basic social infrastructures such as schools, health posts, water wells and the movement of goods and services on either side all along the border with Ethiopia.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
Chart 6 (below) presents Vulnerability Ratings for the reporting period.
Chart 6. Afar-Isa Cluster Vulnerability Ratings (Djibouti reports only) December - August 2008 80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0 Vulnerability Ratings
30.0
20.0
8 8 0 008 2 2008 l 2008 h 2008 ri ary rc u a Ap May 2008 June 20 July gust 200 M January 2008 Au December 2007 Febr Month Economy/Environment Politics/Governance Society/Culture
The above chart shows that the Vulnerability Ratings had remained generally low and constant except for the Environmental/Economic Vulnerability Ratings. The slight increase of Environment/Economic between March and May can be attributed to the worsening of the drought and its impact, following the lack of rain in the January - March period (Heys/Dada) and the loss of substantial proportions of the livestock due to respiratory epidemics aggravated by the cold winds of the period and by hunger. The delay and the low amount of expected rainfall of the Dirac/Sougoum season caused the tensions between the communities to be at their highest level in this period and have made them abandon their traditional grazing areas.
Natural resources (water, pasture and tree leaves) have been depleted in all the pastoral zones following the small rainfall of Diraa/Sougoum, with levels lower than the average rainfalls of the previous three seasons and due to the current high temperatures. The deep diggings and water transports constitute the only sources of water in these rural areas. The animals which feed on aerial pasture (for example, goats and camels) adapted better to survive these conditions compared to those which graze grass and fodder of plains (for example, cattle and sheep). The livestock is concentrated around the usual migration destination of the dry season, the plateaus and mountains where the tree leaves and a little fodder are still available.
The drop between May and July is perhaps the result of the start of the Karan/Karma season rain on the plateaus and mountains on either side of the border with Ethiopia, which has resulted in a greater availability of water and pasture areas thus reducing the economic and environmental vulnerability. But the reproduction of goats has been heavily hit by the drought because the majority of pregnancies ended with miscarriages due to the insufficiency of tree leaves and fodder to feed them. Consequently, the number of milk producing goats is expected to be completely limited during the period August to October 2008, which will result in a reduced milk production, in particular in the south east and west zones of postoral ways of living, all along the border with Ethiopia.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
The political/governance vulnerability rating shows a slight peak in February at the same time that the society/culture vulnerability rating has a little drop. This comes certainly from the consequences of the deadly incident of January with the most important livestock theft, which broke down the peace between the Debneh Afars and Issa tribes, but also stopped the most important restitution process of stolen livestock conducted by the Authorities of the Divhil Region. This incident reduced to nothing all the alliances formed between the communities and the regional administration. The insecurity resulting from it has equally stopped the work of NGO's and Charity Associations (Associations of Religious youth advocating peace and mutual aid, Arab foreign NGO's ) in the region.
Situation in June 2008.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
Comparative Analysis
Analysis of Structural Conflict Aggravating Factors
Reports from CEWARN Field monitors and other sources well as from FEWS NET indicated the food security situation among the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the east of the Horn of Africa remained extremely precarious during the reporting period. There was mainly because of the delayed onset or the total absence of the short rains (October- December) 2007 which were crucial in rejuvenating pasture and water in the long dry spells before the main rain season (February- April) during 2008. This year’s short rains would have been crucially important because they would have broken the cycle of successive dry spells of the recent two years.
However, the rains have failed and the resulting drought has affected around 80.000 pastoralists and 25.000 urban poor families in Djibouti.
Implications The worst affected regions are the western (Dikhil), southern (Ali-Sabieh) and northern (Tadjourah) rural areas of the country. Owing to the total absence or poor performances of the rains and the fast depleting pasture and water resources, ominous signs of pre-famine conditions have been reported: early and widespread human and livestock distress migration,…livestock deaths from lack of pasture and water, significant decrease in milk and other products, signs of severe malnutrition and spread of diseases, distress sales of livestock and deteriorating terms of trade. But conflicts over scarce resources are not reported yet. The pre-famine conditions are particularly worrying given the delays in the onset of the “jilial” (dry) season (January-April) rain. Because of lack of pasture livestock (cattle) are heavily concentrated around few water holes and others have migrated in search of both water and pasture. Reports from Field Monitors in Dikhil region (cross-border As-Eyla area), for example, have indicated that pastoralists have also migrated with their livestock and camels in the hinterland, across the border in Ethiopia.
It is also reported that drought-affected regions in Somali Cluster have been declared Natural disaster areas and humanitarian relief efforts are underway to alleviate the problems of the pastoral and agro-pastoral population. There have also been various reports by the national media and FEWSNET that thousands of livestock have perished because of lack of pasture and water, in the south and north of the country.
The consequences of the disaster and deteriorating food security situation in Djibouti have been characterized as pre-famine necessitating massive relief effort to avoid loss of large number of human lives and livestock.
Analysis of Proximate Conflict Aggravating Factors The pastoralists in the West and Southeast border livelihood zone are facing high levels of food insecurity, as the supply of charcoal and firewood – the sale of which is a major source of income in the area – has increased significantly and saturated the market, driving down prices. With the summer holidays, the demand for milk has decreased, which is the main source of income for pastoralists in the southeast roadside livelihood zone. Animal productivity in the central livelihood zone is also limited, but as family remittances are the major source of both income and food, household food deficits are not as severe compared to other zones. Many households are highly food insecure in the market gardening livelihood zone, due to shortages
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
of water intended for irrigation that are causing production to decrease. Water aquifers have been depleted due to the lack of rainfall.
Underlying Factors • More than two-thirds of the population living in urban areas. The poor and very poor account for 10-15 percent and they are exceptionally poor by any standard, barely making 0.5$ per person per day. Their main sources of food are 100 percent through purchase. They rely on income generated from casual labor employment opportunities and petty trade. Summer months (May to August) are the most critical months in terms of food shortages, where their income is diminished due to reduction in income influenced by summer holiday makers who leave the country en masse to escape the scorching heat. A price increase for staple or other necessities ( kerosene, health and education services) or a drop in employment or salaries can seriously affect the urban vulnerable population. Consumer prices are currently outside the affordability of the poor urban vulnerable population. • Northwest and Southwest livelihood pastoralists are the most marginalized group. They are heavily dependant on livestock production and the sale of livestock and livestock byproducts. The border markets of Eldar, Manda, and Ashaeti in Ethiopia are the main sources of staple food for households in these zones. The poor households in these zonee live below the minimum calorie needs in normal conditions and they experience food deficits through out the year. The population in this zone is more sensitive to any hazard related to climate, which will affect the natural resources (pasture, browse, water). They are currently facing extreme levels of food insecurity due to successive failure of the last two rainy seasons (Heys and Diraa). • The poor households in the Southeast pastoral zone purchase 80 percent of their staple food requirements. Income generation by poorer households throughout the zone is limited by low levels of livestock ownership. In the case of the roadside sub zone, the critical factor is the number of milking camels owned. For the border sub zone, it is the number of pack animals since these are required to transport firewood and charcoal, the main income source of this group. • The resilience capacity of Djiboutian pastoral households is undermined by the increased frequency of droughts and lack of proper mitigation and recovery programs. Livestock dependant pastoralists have been in a critical livelihood crisis for the last decade. Livestock herd sizes declined significantly, and the main underlying cause of chronic food insecurity is the inability to recover completely from shocks. Hunger safety nets need to be developed to lift up the poor pastoralists from their deepening dependence on food aid assistance.
Hazards (risques)
• The increase in the cost of staple food prices and essential non-food items (kerosene, etc.) is a major hazard currently affecting the poor urban households. Current increase in fuel cost has a knock on effect on food prices. • Water shortages are affecting the poor households in both urban and rural areas. This phenomena is due to poor management and weak institutions and of course lack of sufficient rainfall to fill the water catchments and infiltrate adequately to the aquifer. • Pastoralists depend mostly upon livestock production and are therefore vulnerable to any hazard affecting livestock. Consecutive droughts caused 25-80 percent loss of livestock. This has created significant food deficits and increased the acute malnutrition rates. Sources of food and income derived from animals are reduced significantly.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster This phenomenon became cyclic and has occurred virtually every year during the last 5 years.
• Anything affecting the supply of staple food to Ethiopia’s border markets will have a significant effect on pastoralists living the border areas, since most of the food for the border areas is purchased in these markets. The most important hazards are the failure of sorghum and maize production in Ethiopia and to a certain extent Somaliland, of which the most likely cause is drought, and reduction in the distribution of food aid to areas supplying border markets • Terms of trade and price fluctuations/speculations.
RESPONSE RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Mobilize the necessary resources to carry out immediate relief to avoid human and livestock death from starvation and lack of pasture and water 2. Put in place the requisite security and humanitarian measures to prevent conflict precipitated by environmental pressure 3. Minimize or prevent internal displacement or livestock migration by provision of emergency fodder and water wherever practically possible 4. Establish adhoc emergency consultative mechanism through which government authorities, traditional leaders and civil society work together to coordinate humanitarian and conflict prevention activities.
ACTORS SHORT TERM LONG TERM
Government Support the peace and stolen livestock Strengthen the institutional Authorities restitution initiative underway with local coordination and mechanism (CEWERU) and regional authorities under the linking organs of central framework of conflict prevention. government and local and regional Launch cross-border peace initiatives administrative authorities and civil with Ethiopian CEWERU to end the society to prevent and trigger the impunity of isolated thieves or either best responses to crises and side of the border. conflicts. Regional Authorities Strengthen and support further the Pursue and maintain peace and Local traditional committee of prevention and activities (cross-border/national) by Communities resolutions of disputes and conflicts involving elders, youth women, etc. between tribes. Civil society Strengthen the coordination and setting Consolidate and if possible extend up of networks to mitigate conflicts. the development initiatives by involving herders themselves. International NGO's Support peace activities of local NGO's Provide resources and "expertise" in particular these which are cross- to peace and development border. initiatives.
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
Appendix 1: Definitions of the Incident Categories
Armed Clashes Military Battle (Armed hostilities or engagements between an official military unit of a government and an armed party. Includes both civil war and inter-state war battles. Other Armed Clashes (All other armed hostilities or engagements. Includes all communal and inter-communal battles.
Raids Raids with Abductions (Raids focused around abductions of people or the taking of hostages. May include injuries or death to humans, and/or damage, destruction or theft of other property). Organized Raids (Other organized raids. May include injuries or deaths to humans, and/or damage, destruction or theft of other property). Livestock Theft (Raids focused around the theft of livestock. May include injuries or death to humans, and/or damage, destruction or theft of other property.
Protest Demonstrations Peaceful Protests (peaceful protest demonstrations or assemblies. May include isolated or low-level violence). Violent Turmoil or Riots (Assemblies or crowds that get out of control. Marked by violence, disorder, damage and/or destruction).
Other Crime Assaults (Physical attacks and abuse involving the actual use of physical force against individuals, and/or groups. Does not include abductions. Banditry (Commandeering of vehicles, highway robbery, and other similar criminal activities).
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
Appendix 2: Description of Indicators (from the Situation Reports)
Alliance Formation
Inter-ethnic group alliance Ethnic group – government alliance
Armed Intervention
Internal armed support External armed support
Aggravating Behavior
Interrupt other activities Pastoral migration Bullets as commodities Development aid problems Harmful migration policy Protest Media controls Harmful livestock policy Student attendance interrupted Migrant laborers Influx of IDPs Separation of groups New Markets Security escorts Livestock prices dropped Negative media coverage Small arms availability Post-raid blessing Livestock sales increase
Environmental Pressure
Natural disaster Land competition More livestock in secure areas grazing areas abandoned Livestock disease
Exchange Behavior
Celebration Inter-group marriage Gift offering Inter-group sharing Cross-border trade
Mitigating Behavior
Access to health care Relief distributions Law enforcement Small arms disclosure Markets remain open Bride price stable Access to education Positive media coverage Negotiations taking place
Peace Initiatives
Women peace messengers Weapons reduction program Local peace initiatives Religious peace building NGO peace initiatives
Provocative Behavior
All-male migration Pre-raid blessing Traditional forecasting
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IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster
Deaths of Human Women & percents Protest Other Organized Armed all Month & Year Deaths Children W&C Month & Year Demonstrations Crime Raids Clashes incidents December 2007 0 0 N/A December 2007 0 1 0 0 1 January 2008 0 0 N/A January 2008 0 0 0 0 0 February 3008 0 0 N/A February March 2008 0 0 N/A 3008 0 0 0 0 0 April 2008 0 0 N/A March 2008 0 0 0 0 0 May 2008 0 0 N/A April 2008 0 0 0 0 0 June 2008 0 0 N/A May 2008 0 0 0 0 0 July 2008 1 0 0.0 June 2008 0 0 2 0 2 August 2008 0 0 N/A July 2008 0 1 0 0 1 totals 1 0 0.0 August 2008 0 0 2 0 2
totals 0 2 4 0 6
Society/ Politics/ Economy/ Peace Mitigating Exchange Alliance Month & Year Culture Governance Environment Month & Year Initiatives Behavior Behavior Formation Combined December December 2007 34.1 60.8 32.3 19.6 42.2 2007 30.3 30.6 22.4 January 2008 43.1 59.7 35.1 24.8 45.8 January 2008 32.3 29.9 23.2 February 2008 34.7 69.1 33.9 0.0 43.9 February 2008 29.4 33.9 21.8 March 2008 38.6 68.2 30.8 21.0 46.3
March 2008 32.6 30.3 21.8 April 2008 46.1 67.8 34.6 15.3 48.8
April 2008 32.7 28.7 35.6 May 2008 46.1 71.4 33.4 25.0 50.8
May 2008 31.2 25.9 30.5 June 2008 35.6 78.0 30.4 0.0 46.7
June 2008 33.5 29.5 27.4 July 2008 38.6 79.2 27.4 0.0 47.6
August 2008 43.3 82.5 28.3 0.0 50.5 July 2008 31.2 29.1 19.2 August 2008 35.7 27.7 26.3
Livestock Month & Year Losses, net December 2007 0 Armed Provocative Environmental Aggravating January 2008 0 Month & Year Intervention Behavior Pressure Behavior Combined February 3008 0 December 2007 0.0 4.6 24.4 10.3 13.2 March 2008 0 January 2008 0.0 6.4 26.2 14.2 16.3 April 2008 0 February 2008 0.0 6.3 15.3 1.0 5.7 May 2008 0 March 2008 0.0 3.4 37.8 13.0 18.2 June 2008 3 April 2008 0.0 1.7 45.1 14.1 20.5 July 2008 0 May 2008 0.0 0.0 42.9 9.1 16.7 August 2008 10 June 2008 0.0 0.0 42.4 7.2 15.5 totals 13 July 2008 0.0 0.0 33.7 1.2 9.6 August 2008 0.0 0.0 55.4 4.3 17.2
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