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The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN)

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The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) The Conflict Early Warning and Response mechanism (CEWARN) in the Inter Governmental Authority On Development (IGAD) Region CEWARN Country Updates: December 2007 – August 2008 For the Djibouti Side of the Afars-Isa Cluster Report to Djibouti CEWERU November 15, 2008 CEWARN, Addis Abeba, Ethiopia IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster CEWARN Country Update Update Period: January 2008 through August 2008 Area of Reporting: Djibouti, Dikhil region (Afar-Issa Cluster) National Research Institute: CCFIS Country Coordinator: Coordinator: Ilmi Awaleh Elabeh Report to Djibouti CEWERU November 15, 2008 Executive Summary The purpose of this Country Update is to establish the incidence and outcomes of pastoral conflict on the Djibouti side of the Afars-Isas Cluster from January 2008 through August 2008, set in the context of all reports submitted from December 2007 through August 2008. The reporting locations on the Djibouti side of the Afars-Issas cluster are 3 in number for the reporting period: As-Eyla South-West sector, As-Eyla South-Est sector and Dikhil sector. This Update presents both positive and negative precursors to the pastoral conflict situations as a means to illuminate trends that can help signal imminent outbreaks or escalations or mitigate ongoing conflicts in the cluster. For the reporting period from January 2008 through August 2008, 5 deaths occurred and 329 livestock were lost on the Djibouti side of the Afars-Issas Cluster. These losses were reported in a total of 15 incidents reported of which 7 violent incidents with using of guns and dags (“Knife weapons" such as daggers) occurring 5 deaths and 5 injuries. 6 of those 15 incidents [40%] were happened in the Ethiopian side of the border and have involved parties from this neighboring country of Djibouti. Violence was highest in May through August 2008. Peace indicators were highest in April and May 2008. The Dikhil Region has the specificity of having the two main components of the national population, the Afars and the Issas. In addition, it has a long border with the two Somali and Afar regions of Ethiopia and the nomadic populations move from one side to the other without restriction. The Afars and the Issas (Somali tribes) having the same way of life, are in majority nomadic herders who move with their livestock according to climatic conditions, on either side of the border between Ethiopia and Djibouti, and depending on situations of conflict or peace between them in the region. They engage regularly since the down of time in often very deadly conflicts interrupted by periods of reconciliation and peace. The centers of the intra and inter community pastoral conflicts are located in the GOOBAAD, a border zone in all it's extent to the South - East of the district up to Lake Abbeh, and mainly around the entry and exit points at the border, Bondara, Sankal, Bakeireh, Moulouhlelh Dar- Bour and Kalan - Kaleyti. 2 IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster The problems which arise in this area have repercussions and affect afterwards the cohabitation of Afars and Issas in the other parts of the district but also the country. In addition to the competition for the meager resources of grazing and water, in most cases it is acts of livestock thefts or crimes committed on the Ethiopian side of the border by isolated thieves (Afar and Issa) which lead to reactions of revenge in the Djiboutian territory and even cause the failure of peace negotiations. Due to their mobility from one side to the other of the border, they benefit rarely from basic social infrastructures, services and assistance of government administrations. As everywhere in the Horn of Africa, the major causes of the conflicts between Afar and Issa pastoralists are, among others: • the competition for grazing lands and water which generally triggers the first hostilities or confrontations; • livestock theft to reconstitute livestock lost due to theft or raid or death due to drought; • livestock theft to pay for dowry; • Availability of weapons (light kalach) and ammunitions is also an aggravating factor. • Weak impact of the development policies and programs of both countries concerned to change the situation and living conditions of the population of the area. The major recommendations of this report are: • the development and the setting up of a vast integrated agro-pastoralist program in the zone by the authorities of the two countries, to strengthen and diversify the income generating activities of the pastoralists of the zone; • the extension and the improvement of the access, quality and coverage of basic social infrastructures; • the establishment and the setting up of a local Cross - Border Traditional Peace Committee (recognized by the authorities of the two countries) representative of Afar and Issa pastoralists of this zone. The government authorities and the cewarn program should support and encourage this committee to use the traditional mechanism of prevention and resolution of conflicts and crises between the pastoralists in this zone. ___ The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) of The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, has coordinated the field reporting and editing of these reports. The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) have contributed funds towards this effort. CEWARN in collaboration with Virtual Research Associates (VRA) developed the early warning methodology and reporting tool. suggestions and comments on this initial updates are welcome. Please contact CEWARN ([email protected]) at the CEWARN office in Addis Ababa with any questions, comments or suggestions. The next CEWARN Country Update September-December 2008 for the Djibouti side of the Afar-Isa cluster is scheduled for posting in January 2008. In the course of the year these Updates will be enhanced with specific response options identified and tied to their associated thresholds of indicator values that signal pastoral conflict escalation, destabilization or violence. 3 IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster Current Baseline Analysis NOTE: The y-axes are dynamically scaled on all of the charts presented below. Therefore, the reader should pay special attention to the upper and lower values presented for each chart. The range of values for all “scores” is from 0 to 100. Chart 1 (below) presents the frequency of violent incident counts for the Djibouti side of the Afars- Issas Cluster for the reporting period. Chart 1. Afar-Isa Cluster Incident Reports (Djibouti Reports only) December 2008 - August 2008 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 7 8 8 8 0 08 08 0 Incident Report Counts Report Incident 200 00 0 0 008 2 20 l 2 20 h i y 2 e st 2 ary rc a a M July 2008 nu Apr Jun gu a M J Au December February 3008 Month Armed Clashes Protest Demonstrations Raids Other Crime All Reported Incidents From December 2007 through January 2008, and from May through august 2008, violent incident reports were at their highest levels. Violence was lowest during February through April 2008. Among the 15 incidents reported on the Djibouti side of the Afars-Issas cluster, 40% were identified as cross-border incidents by the reporters in that the protagonists were from Ethiopia. The incidents reported during this period are distributed as follows: Djibouti side of the border: 9 Ethiopia side of the border: 6 The incidents of the period from December 2007 through January 2008 are due mainly to the installation of new Afar camps in Bakereh, a zone usually used by Issas in the cool season. This zone is an important axis of transhumance and especially the main passage route of caravans between Ethiopia and Djibouti. It is also the customary setting up location of the Issa camps coming from Oudha'leh and Ayroor (plateaus of Region II of Ethiopia) during the winter period. In the face of this situation, the Issa tribal chiefs have reacted and complained to the authorities of the Dikhil region against these new establishments of Afar camps, fearing the potential risks of clashes and misunderstandings that could be created by this promiscuity, which they have considered to contravene the traditional tacit rules of community territory patterns. To preserve peace and security, the Authorities of the Dikhil Region decide that the two parties keep their own traditional settlement zones, namely Saadli for the Afars and Bakereh for the Issas. 4 IGAD-CEWARN Country Update – Djibouti Side of the Afar-Issa Cluster The Afar community refuses by interpreting the decision of the Region's commissioner as a forced displacement and a bias, diverted from their goal of seeking peace by malicious individuals (district and political grudges resulting from the regional elections in the zone in 2006). Between February and mid-May 2008, the majority of Issa pastoral nomads have returned to their grazing zones on the plateaus of Region II of Ethiopia, in search of the "Dirac" season rains. The contacts between Afar nomads and camps are reduced to zero, which explains why incidents are non - existent during this period. After mid - May, the Afar nomads fleeting heat, the aridity of their plains, move and climb in their turn on the heights of the plateaus of region II of Ethiopia, seeking coolness and pasture for their livestock. They come into contact again with Issa nomads. The rains of "Dirac" season beings very small, the proximity causes a very strong competition for water points and the limited pastures, which again triggers incidents. Human deaths for the reporting period are presented in Chart 2 (below); Chart 2. Afar-Isa Cluster Human Deaths (Djibouti reports only ) 50 December - August 2008 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Human Death Counts 8 8 8 0 007 2 2008 200 20 y ly 2008 pril u A May une 2008 J nuar J ember a March 2008 c J February 300 De Month All Deaths Women & Children The numbers of deaths range from a high of 3 in January 2008 to a low of1 in February and 1 in July 2008.
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