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Improved and Extended Tide Gauge Records for the British Isles Leading to More Consistent Estimates of Sea Level Rise and Accele

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Improved and Extended Tide Gauge Records for the British Isles Leading to More Consistent Estimates of Sea Level Rise and Accele Progress in Oceanography 184 (2020) 102333 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Progress in Oceanography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/pocean Improved and extended tide gauge records for the British Isles leading to T more consistent estimates of sea level rise and acceleration since 1958 ⁎ P. Hogartha,b, , C.W. Hughesa,b, S.D.P. Williamsb, C. Wilsonb a University of Liverpool, United Kingdom b National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: This paper describes methods of obtaining improved estimates of long-term sea level trends for the British Isles. Sea level rise This is achieved by lengthening the sea level records where possible, then removing known sources of variability, Sea level acceleration and then further adjusting for datum errors that are revealed by the previous processes after verification using Mean sea level metadata from archived sources. Local sea level variability is accounted for using a tide and surge model. Far Tide gauge field variability is accounted for using a “common mode”. This combination reduces the residual variability seen Time series analysis at tide gauges around the coast of the British Isles to the point that a number of previously unrecognised steps in individual records become apparent, permitting a higher level of quality control to be applied. A comprehensive data archaeology exercise was carried out which showed that these step-like errors are mostly coincident with recorded site-specific changes in instrumentation, and that in many cases the periodic tide gauge calibration records can be used to quantify these steps. A smaller number of steps are confirmed by “buddy-checking” against neighbouring tide gauges. After accounting for the observed steps, using levelling information where possible and an empirical fit otherwise, the records become significantly more consistent. The steps arenot found to make a large difference to the trend and acceleration observed in UK sea level overall, buttheir correction results in much more consistent estimates of first order (Sea Level Rise) and second order (Sea Level Acceleration) trends over this 60-year period. We find a mean rate of sea level rise of 2.39 ± −10.27 mmyr , and an acceleration of 0.058 ± 0.030 mm yr−2 between Jan. 1958 and Dec. 2018. The cleaner dataset also permits us to show more clearly that the variability other than that derived from local meteorology is indeed consistent around the UK, and relates to sea level changes along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic. 1. Introduction allowing them to be objectively adjusted. We also (5) adjust those segments for which such information is not available, so as to minimise Our overall aim in this paper is to extend and improve the British the steps. Finally (6) it is shown that the resulting dataset is more Isles monthly Mean Sea Level (MSL) dataset, to begin to understand the consistent and results in improved estimates of trends and accelerations sources of the observed variability in the improved dataset, and to of sea level rise around the British Isles. We have selected a minimum of quantify sea level trends and accelerations. 20 years of valid data to derive SLR trends, and 50 years to derive This paper significantly improves the sea level records: (1) by using acceleration. results of a data archaeology exercise to extend the sea level data set The tide gauge network (Fig. 1) around the British Isles is a dense where possible; (2) by making use of a barotropic model to remove series of coastal sea level measurement sites situated on a shallow much of the variability due to local meteorology; (3) by deriving and continental shelf sea on the Eastern boundary of the North Atlantic. The subtracting a common mode, representing variability from more distant data from tide gauges installed around the British Isles and along the sources. This results in much smoother residual data, in which steps due adjacent continental coast have been the subject of scientific study from to data recording errors are more apparent, leading to (4) a further data the early 19th Century. More recent work has investigated sources of archaeology exercise demonstrating that most of those steps are asso- variability, allowing more refined estimates of Sea Level Rise (SLR) in ciated with known instrumentation changes, and that levelling and the region (Rossiter, 1967; Thompson, 1980; Woodworth, 1987; related data are available for most segments of data between steps, Woodworth et al., 1999; Woodworth et al., 2009; Wahl et al., 2013; ⁎ Corresponding author at: Floor 1, NOC, Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool L3 5DA, United Kingdom. E-mail address: [email protected] (P. Hogarth). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102333 Received 11 September 2019; Received in revised form 10 April 2020; Accepted 10 April 2020 Available online 17 April 2020 0079-6611/ Crown Copyright © 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/). P. Hogarth, et al. Progress in Oceanography 184 (2020) 102333 Fig. 1. Tide gauge stations around the British Isles with more than 20 years of data, indexed starting at the northernmost station in Shetland, then clockwise around the coastline, with station name and PSMSL station number (or numbers if composite). Sites will use the index numbers (in parentheses) throughout this paper to ease reference. Dangendorf et al. 2014; Haigh et al., 2009; Haigh et al., 2014; which have 20 or more years of data over the period from the late Frederikse et al., 2016a; Frederikse and Gerkema, 2018). This paper can 1950 s to the end of 2018 from 34 to 48. be viewed as part of this ongoing process. The tide gauge measurements around the coast of the British Isles The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the main are affected by a range of different physical processes. These include: repository for global tide gauge data (Holgate et al., 2013). The ‘Metric’ responses to local atmospheric pressure (Doodson, 1924; Ponte, 2006); MSL dataset contains monthly means of the original data for each site wind stress (Thompson 1980; 1981) including tide and storm surges and is usually referenced to the tide gauge zero (TGZ) that was used at (Frederikse et al., 2016a; Frederikse and Gerkema, 2018); a response to the time of recording (further background is given in Supplement 1). more distant ocean variability (Wakelin et al., 2003; Calafat et al., The Metric data therefore normally retains all the original (often large) 2012; Frederikse et al., 2016b; Volkov et al., 2019) which modulates TGZ changes, reflecting events such as gauge relocation or replacement, and includes global mean sea level changes; local vertical land motion or redefinition of local Admiralty Chart Datum (ACD) (Aarup et al., (VLM) (Wöppelmann and Marcos, 2016) due to present day processes 2006). The Revised Local Reference (RLR) dataset represents quality- (such as localised subsidence due to groundwater extraction, or po- controlled monthly mean data where records of these changes allow tentially for North East England, coal mining) (Rossiter and Gray, correction (as far as possible) to a consistent local land-based vertical 1972); and both land and gravitational responses to past glaciations, reference point. Whilst the records have been subject to review, com- known as Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) (Bradley et al., 2011). Of parison and quality control over many decades (Graff and Karunaratne, these, the meteorological response and GIA response are expected to 1980; Woodworth, 1991), a portion of the Metric data has not been vary substantially, while the response to more distant ocean variability reduced to RLR as the elevation differences between the TGZ and local is expected to be more consistent from gauge to gauge. In Sections 4.3 bench marks were unknown or uncertain. In order to maximise the and 5.3 we exploit this understanding. amount of useable data we initially carried out a data archaeology Section 2 describes the data sources, and Section 3 the data ar- exercise (see Section 3) which allowed the recovery of new (as well as chaeology (more detail on the kinds of data sources and details of tide verification of existing) information, increasing the number of sites gauge datum determination are given in supplements 1,2 and 3). In around the British Isles where RLR type offsets can be applied. The Sections 4 and 5 we work through the data improvements, using two degree of this data extension is summarised in Fig. S5 in supplement 1. example tide gauge sites in Section 4, and then the entire dataset in In all, the PSMSL holds monthly MSL data of varying record length and Section 5. These improvements take the following form: quality for around 100 sites around the British Isles. By including the newly extended and composite records, we increase the number of sites • Step 1 (Sections 4.1 and 5.1): Add levelling information to Metric 2 P. Hogarth, et al. Progress in Oceanography 184 (2020) 102333 and newly found data to produce the extended, RLR-quality Metric in most of the analysis here we use data from the years Jan. 1958 to Extended Reduced dataset, with no further datum correction at this Dec. 2018 inclusive. stage. The annual MSL data from a global mean sea level reconstruction • Step 2 (Sections 4.2 and 5.2): Perform “buddy checking” against (Church and White, 2011, updated to 2013) was downloaded from: nearby tide gauges, where possible, to demonstrate that previously https://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_data_cmar.html. We also undetected datum steps are visible, and make an estimate of their downloaded the hybrid reconstruction of monthly global MSL estimates times. from Dangendorf et al.
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