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Can Artificial Intelligence Modelling Approaches Assist Football Clubs in Identifying Transfer Targets, While Maintaining a Fair

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Can Artificial Intelligence Modelling Approaches Assist Football Clubs in Identifying Transfer Targets, While Maintaining a Fair Can Artificial Intelligence Modelling Approaches Assist Football Clubs In Identifying Transfer Targets, While Maintaining A Fair Transfer Market Using Player Performance Data? School of Management Cardiff Metropolitan University By Miftahul Ahmed ST20074885 BSc (Hons) Software Engineering Declaration I hereby declare that this dissertation entitled ‘Can Artificial Intelligence modelling approaches assist football clubs in identifying transfer targets, while maintaining a fair transfer market using player performance data?’ Is entirely my own work, and it has never been submitted nor is it currently being submitted for any other degree. Supervisor’s name: Dr Ambikesh Jayal Co-supervisor’s name: ………………………….. Candidate signature …………………………………… Date ……/……/…………../ i Abstract Artificial Intelligence is a new phenomenon that is being embraced in all areas of the real- world. This study will investigate and evaluate Artificial Intelligence methods, techniques, models and integrations, which will enable us to draw conclusions and make decisions on how to construct a model that will be developed in the future. This proposed model will hopefully assist football clubs in identifying potential transfer targets, while maintaining a fair transfer market. To carry out this investigation, we will explore books, journals, academic sources and relevant websites to review past literature and examine methodological approaches in modelling an Artificial Intelligent System. First, we identify the aims and objectives of this study. Then we look at past literature that consisted mainly of Artificial Intelligence approaches, techniques and modelling. Then we carry out experiments based on the system methodologies to seek improvements that may justify which technique to peruse for our future model. We will then critically evaluate the findings of this research and detail how we would implement the model, which assists in solving the problems. To conclude, we will outline how we have met our objectives of this project and how we can further develop the model and expand it to solve more problems in the footballing world. As a result of this study, we were able to conclude the technique/algorithm we would use to develop our model would be a Case-Based Reasoning Expert System as this would help solve all the problems. The k- Nearest neighbour algorithm helped find the most similar case (identifying a player) while also recommending what the value of the player would be. Artificial Neural Network algorithm could not be applied, because there were not enough similar instances (players) to identify a set of patterns or trends in the inputs. ii Acknowledgment I would like to take this opportunity to thank all the people who have helped me throughout this dissertation. Firstly to Ambikesh Jayal, thank you for supervising me throughout this project. Also like to thank all the other lecturers for their guidance throughout the year. Lastly I would like to thank my family and friends for encouraging me at all times. iii Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 The Problem to Be Solved ............................................................................................................. 2 1.2.1 Maintaining a Fair Transfer Market ....................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 Identifying a Player ................................................................................................................ 3 1.3 The Proposed Solution to the Problem ......................................................................................... 3 1.3 Aims of study................................................................................................................................. 4 1.3.1 Research Question ................................................................................................................. 4 1.3.2 Objectives ............................................................................................................................... 4 2.0 Literature Review .............................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 Artificial Intelligence ..................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 What is Intelligence? .............................................................................................................. 5 2.1.2 What is Artificial Intelligence? ............................................................................................... 5 2.1.3 What can Artificial intelligence do? ....................................................................................... 8 2.1.4 Current Artificial Intelligent Applications............................................................................... 9 2.2 Artificial Intelligent Model and Techniques .................................................................................. 9 2.2.1 Artificial Neural Network models ........................................................................................... 9 2.3 Expert Systems ............................................................................................................................ 13 2.3.2 Rule Based Reasoning (RBR) ................................................................................................ 15 2.3.3 Cased-Based Reasoning (CBR).............................................................................................. 15 2.4 Analysis of Player Data ................................................................................................................ 19 2.4.1 Player Profile Data ............................................................................................................... 19 2.4.2 Player Performance Data ..................................................................................................... 20 2.5 Data Mining ................................................................................................................................. 22 3.0 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 24 3.1 Research Methodology ............................................................................................................... 24 3.1.1 Qualitative Method .............................................................................................................. 24 iv 3.1.2 Quantitative Method ........................................................................................................... 24 3.2 Data Modelling Methodology ..................................................................................................... 24 3.2.1 Ethical and Legal Concerns................................................................................................... 24 3.2.2 Data Driven Modelling (DDM).............................................................................................. 26 3.2.3 Knowledge Discovery in Database (KDD) ............................................................................. 27 3.3 Artificial Intelligence Modelling Methods ................................................................................... 29 3.3.1 Case Base Reasoning Approach ........................................................................................... 29 3.3.2 Neural Network Approach ................................................................................................... 30 4.0 Findings and Evaluation .................................................................................................................. 33 4.1 Evaluation of Human Expert Reasoning and Computer Reasoning ............................................ 33 4.2 Evaluation of Current Uses and Applications in Artificial Intelligence ........................................ 34 4.3 Evaluation of Proposed Solution ................................................................................................. 36 4.4 Evaluation of Data Collection and Data Modelling ..................................................................... 37 5.0 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 38 5.1 Project Summary ......................................................................................................................... 38 5.2 Future Work ................................................................................................................................ 39 6.0 References ...................................................................................................................................... 40 7.0 Appendices ...................................................................................................................................... 43 7.1 Ethics Form .................................................................................................................................. 43 v 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Background The football transfer market has an immense bearing on every football club in the professional leagues.
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